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SLCUT2777
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Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:36 pm

Patricia, the most powerful hurricane ever measured in the pacific and now even by the NOSS/NWS/NHC in Miami is going to impact PVR by tonight...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...html/145201.shtml?5-daynl#contents
By now it's a safe assumption DL, AA, UA, WN, AC, WS, AM and the others will have all aircraft out of the impact zone shirtly as a category 5 hurricane warning has been issued for the region. Without question there will be many American and Canadian tourists stuck there riding this out, but given deteriorating damage, supply and demand conditions that we saw impact SJD 13 months ago, what air carriers are planning evacuation flights? Other airports impacted b this storm will be MZO & GDL.

[Edited 2015-10-23 09:53:44]

[Edited 2015-10-23 09:58:21]
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toxtethogrady
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:43 pm

And now we see what the strongest El Nino on record has wrought. You don't see 205 mph surface winds in anything but tornadoes. Hope everybody stays safe.
 
bennett123
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:45 pm

If it is in the Pacific, why is Miami affected.
 
toxtethogrady
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:47 pm

MIA is where the central headquarters is.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:48 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 2):
If it is in the Pacific, why is Miami affected.

Miami covers the Atlantic, but also the Pacific Basin eastward to 140 W, Hawaii is covered by the smaller Central Pacific Basin center in Honolulu
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DLPMMM
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:48 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 2):
If it is in the Pacific, why is Miami affected.

MIA is not, the National Hurricace Center is located there and that is who issued the warning...grammer by the OP made it unclear.
 
threeifbyair
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:56 pm

At PVR, looks like AS brought in a ferry flight from LAX presumably to bring back customers. The turnaround to LAX is scheduled to depart shortly as AS9231.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/ASA9802
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:01 pm

AS return evacuation flight 9231 PVR-LAX scheduled to depart 12:15pm local time. Airport stated they were closing at 12:00...hope they give them the extra 15 minutes to get the hell out of there.

Prayers for PVR, ZLO and all those in the path of this historic hurricane. With potential winds topping 200mph it will be absolutely catastrophic.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:06 pm

DL has pulled the plug on all flights to PVR today from LAX & ATL..
http://flightaware.com/live/fleet/DAL/cancelled
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727LOVER
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:32 pm

Quoting toxtethogrady (Reply 1):
And now we see what the strongest El Nino on record has wrought.

WOW...did not know this was an El Nino year. Was 1997 the last one?
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
rugger
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:43 pm

I guess the passengers that had flights scheduled to leave tomorrow and the day after are just SOL? I hope the shelters are strong and everyone survives with a minimum of fuss.

[Edited 2015-10-23 10:43:54]
 
audidudi
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:44 pm

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 9):

WOW...I assume you're kidding right? It's been in the news for months already! Where have you been hiding?
 
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litz
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 5:49 pm

I got news for you ... this storm is so large, that when it hits the west coast of Mexico, spirals from the storm will reach halfway across the gulf of mexico, and it's predicted to drop 8-10 inches of rain in Texas ...

There is no "pacific" or "atlantic" with this thing ...

The only saving grace is, it's predicted to stay on-land, and won't end up in the Gulf and reform.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 6:53 pm

Quoting litz (Reply 12):
I got news for you ... this storm is so large, that when it hits the west coast of Mexico, spirals from the storm will reach halfway across the gulf of mexico, and it's predicted to drop 8-10 inches of rain in Texas ...

SAT & AUS are at risk starting late Saturday. Doesn't look like it will go out over the Gulf of Mexico, where you're correct it would reform very quickly...
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FlyingSicilian
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:06 pm

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 13):
SAT & AUS are at risk starting late Saturday. Doesn't look like it will go out over the Gulf of Mexico, where you're correct it would reform very quickly...

They are tracking the center directly over Houston IAH/HOU with 100% chance of rain Sunday and lots of flooding 7-10 inches in some places.
Galveston is already having surge flooding from unusually high surf, partially related to the inflow of this storm in the Pacific
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roseflyer
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:12 pm

This storm exploded in a very short period of time. CNN is reporting that the roads are completely clogged and that there was not enough warning to evacuate everyone. Many people who are both tourists and locals will be stuck through the storm. I imagine the floods and landslides on the mountainous coast will be extensive.
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readytotaxi
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:23 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 15):

What High ground in there in the area for people to make for?
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Tomassjc
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:29 pm

Quoting readytotaxi (Reply 16):
What High ground in there in the area for people to make for?

Both PVR and ZLO are surrounded by mountains.....

Tomas SJC
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readytotaxi
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:33 pm

Quoting Tomassjc (Reply 17):

Then I wish them Luck.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
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B8887
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:39 pm

Good thing that that region is reasonably sparsely populated. Very serious event nonetheless for PVR.

Tropical storms tend to weaken rapidly over land, so I expect SAT and AUS to come out ok, if the remnants head there. Best of luck...

Regards.

B8887
 
chrisair
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:53 pm

Quoting B8887 (Reply 19):
Tropical storms tend to weaken rapidly over land, so I expect SAT and AUS to come out ok, if the remnants head there. Best of luck...

The wind won't be awful in Texas, but the rain could cause big problems when the remnants move through.
 
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litz
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:09 pm

8-10 inches of rain is nothing to sneeze at ... the flooding is going to be tremendous all through west-central Texas.
 
cschleic
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:29 pm

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 7):
AS return evacuation flight 9231 PVR-LAX scheduled to depart 12:15pm local time. Airport stated they were closing at 12:00...hope they give them the extra 15 minutes to get the hell out of there.

The AS website shows that it arrived LAX at 1:00pm local.
 
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mikelive
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:32 pm

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 13):
SAT & AUS are at risk starting late Saturday. Doesn't look like it will go out over the Gulf of Mexico, where you're correct it would reform very quickly...
Quoting B8887 (Reply 19):
Tropical storms tend to weaken rapidly over land, so I expect SAT and AUS to come out ok, if the remnants head there. Best of luck...

As an AvGeek and a weather nerd, I've been watching this storm closely and reading all the doom and gloom predictions from the NWS about the upcoming rains. For a while, SAT was in a target zone to get anywhere from 5-8 (or more) inches of rain. Lately, those heavier amounts have shifted north and east. Now we're looking at 4-5 inches where I am, which is about 3 miles north of the SAT VOR station. I'll be surprised if we even touch 4".

In fact, we were supposed to get blasted by rain today (at least in the early forecasts) and it's been dry as a bone for the most part since sunrise. (Although as I write, I noticed that it's gotten much darker outside and a look at my RadarScope app shows a storm approaching from the south and moving north very quickly).

All I can definitively say is that it's going to be wet. Fortunately for me, I'm not going anywhere tomorrow and will be dedicating myself to sleep and college football.
 
rugger
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:34 pm

Quoting chrisair (Reply 20):
The wind won't be awful in Texas, but the rain could cause big problems when the remnants move through.

True. Patricia, or what's left of her, has to go over the central Mexican mountain range. Those are good for breaking up hurricanes. But the moisture will continue into SE Texas, then NE into Arkansas, and into Tennessee and east from there.

In Texas the ground is pretty hard from near drought conditions this year, so initially a lot of the water from this storm will run off and appear as road flooding.
 
frmrCapCadet
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 12:01 am

Anybody know what PVR is doing to reopen as soon as possible after the winds pass?
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 12:05 am

Quite interestingly we didn't know how often Pacific Hurricanes occurred or their frequency numbers until weather satellites were deployed in the early 1960s, as most storms have a track that stays well of the coast and takes them out to ocean graves. The last known tropical system to hit the U.S. Pacific coast was in September of 1939 when a tropical storm came ashore near Long Beach, California, although weather historians have determined they've hit before usually during an El Nino episode.

I'm quite certain the Obama Administration (U.S.) & newly minted Trudeau Government (Canada) get on the ball and have significant numbers of military transport aircraft ready to airlift relief supplies to the impact zone and evacuate citizen tourists from the area on the return. Similarly AS, DL, AA, UA, WN, AC and WS also coordinate evacuation efforts. All I can say if anyone has a holiday booked to PVR or MZO this winter season, plan on making changes.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 12:09 am

Quoting frmrCapCadet (Reply 25):
Anybody know what PVR is doing to reopen as soon as possible after the winds pass?

If what happened last year at SJD is any indication, the FAA and Transport Canada will have to inspect the airfield. Hopefully the fuel tanks aren't impacted and the terminal and FIS desk aren't also the mess SJD was. When I got there on 11/1 (the storm hit 9/15), the HVAC system still wasn't working and of course the Customs lines for entry were long as the SJD area was trying to get their tourist trade up and running again for the season.

[Edited 2015-10-23 17:12:33]
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 12:12 am

Quoting cschleic (Reply 22):
Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 7):AS return evacuation flight 9231 PVR-LAX scheduled to depart 12:15pm local time. Airport stated they were closing at 12:00...hope they give them the extra 15 minutes to get the hell out of there.
The AS website shows that it arrived LAX at 1:00pm local.

Our SOC worked like crazy to get that extra section in there; it filled up FAST.
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indcwby
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 1:02 am

Both IAH and HOU are expected to see 17+ inches. Hope its not a repeat of TS Allison. (35+ inches according to reports)
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toxtethogrady
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 2:00 am

Quoting litz (Reply 12):
I got news for you ... this storm is so large, that when it hits the west coast of Mexico, spirals from the storm will reach halfway across the gulf of mexico, and it's predicted to drop 8-10 inches of rain in Texas ...

Forecasts are saying this one will be dead on top of Houston on Sunday. But the team will be in Miami.
 
iad2cdg
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 2:25 am

Quoting readytotaxi (Reply 16):
What High ground in there in the area for people to make for?

None, as many of us more recent transplants learned last May. Your best hope is a solid multi-story structure.
 
jetwet1
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 3:55 am

Quoting iad2cdg (Reply 31):
None, as many of us more recent transplants learned last May. Your best hope is a solid multi-story structure.

Huh, PVR has mountains on all sides (except the ocean), i've spent lots of time zip lining throughout the area.
 
flyDTW1992
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 4:06 am



Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 26):
I'm quite certain the Obama Administration (U.S.) & newly minted Trudeau Government (Canada) get on the ball and have significant numbers of military transport aircraft ready to airlift relief supplies to the impact zone and evacuate citizen tourists from the area on the return. Similarly AS, DL, AA, UA, WN, AC and WS also coordinate evacuation efforts. All I can say if anyone has a holiday booked to PVR or MZO this winter season, plan on making changes.

Here at [Michigan-based 747F charter operator] operations we're preparing to set aside 2 aircraft for hurricane relief duty. Expecting the call from USAID any time now.

[Edited 2015-10-23 21:20:00]
Now you're flying smart
 
frmrCapCadet
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 4:17 am

Actually mountains are vulnerable to flash flood and landslides. I suspect the safest place are low, geologically stable hills.
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B727skyguy
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:04 am

PVR seems to have been spared. I was watching the weather there all afternoon and evening. For most of the time, they were reporting calm winds. As the hurricane made landfall closer to ZLO, PVR was reporting winds of only 9 mph. ZLO reported gusts of up to 43 mph.
 
AR385
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:50 am

Quoting litz (Reply 12):
I got news for you ... this storm is so large, that when it hits the west coast of Mexico, spirals from the storm will reach halfway across the gulf of mexico, and it's predicted to drop 8-10 inches of rain in Texas ...
Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 13):
SAT & AUS are at risk starting late Saturday. Doesn't look like it will go out over the Gulf of Mexico, where you're correct it would reform very quickly...

The problem is 1) It is considered so powerful, that the mountains will weaken it, but it will still go into Texas as a tropical storm/depression with lots of rain and 2) It is predicted to combine with a cold front in the area that is bringing in humidity from the Gulf. That is why all the way to Dallas they are issuing flood warnings.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 15):
Many people who are both tourists and locals will be stuck through the storm.

No. The entire hotel areas were evacuated all along the coast from PVR to MZO. Over 20,000 tourists either left, or (the majority) were taken to refuges up in the mountains and to GDL in buses paid for by the Federal government. Those who stayed did not heed the warning to leave on time or decided to ride it out.

Quoting Tomassjc (Reply 17):
Both PVR and ZLO are surrounded by mountains.....

Yes they are. Which in itself is also a problem, as mountain slides are very prone in that area when the ground gets saturated with rain. Hopefully that is the lesser of the two evils (wind, water surge)

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 26):
I'm quite certain the Obama Administration (U.S.) & newly minted Trudeau Government (Canada) get on the ball and have significant numbers of military transport aircraft ready to airlift relief supplies to the impact zone and evacuate citizen tourists from the area on the return.

Not to sound chauvinistic, but Mexico is very prepared for these type of events. We do not need any foreign government aid, supplies, or foreign military personnel/transports. Obama´s words are well appreciated, but we are well prepared to cope with the aftermath. For evacuation purposes of their own citizens, sure. Even today, as the PVR-GDL super-highway was full of traffic heading East, construction and earth removing equipment was flowing into the area in massive numbers.

Here in MTY, where I live, it is raining like mad, in waves though, and we have been told by the authorities to not risk going out if not needed during the night/early morning. If you consider that we are around 800kms and two major mountain ranges away, you can understand this is one for the books. Starting around 10PM the humidity in the air was just unbelievable for any time of the year.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 2:40 pm

PVR airport being cleaned up today....AS will resume flights tomorrow (Sunday). Normal schedule with possible extra sections to get people home. So many were evacuated to GDL...maybe that is where the actual need is for extra sections.
 
usflyguy
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 3:33 pm

Quoting FlyingSicilian (Reply 14):
Galveston is already having surge flooding from unusually high surf, partially related to the inflow of this storm in the Pacific

High tide is expected to be 5 feet above normal along the coast just east of Galveston.

Quoting chrisair (Reply 20):
The wind won't be awful in Texas, but the rain could cause big problems when the remnants move through.

In addition the that remnants of the hurricane, there is another system coming through Texas from the north and it's expected that the two will stall over Texas when they meet. It's supposed to be pretty bad around the Houston area.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 3:48 pm

PVR airport IS open today. Here is AS schedule for Saturday, Oct 24th.

AS 263: 4 p.m. Puerto Vallarta-Los Angeles
AS 231: 4:30 p.m. Puerto Vallarta-San Francisco-Seattle
AS 245: 4:10 p.m. Puerto Vallarta-San Diego-Portland
AS 223: 5:24 p.m. Puerto Vallarta-San Francisco-Seattle
AS 257: 4:55 p.m. Puerto Vallarta-Los Angeles
 
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Tomassjc
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 4:37 pm

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 37):
So many were evacuated to GDL...maybe that is where the actual need is for extra sections.

Agree to that! Full GDL-LAX/SJC flights were cancelled this morning (due to their inbounds WX canceled last night) adding to the amount of folks now stuck in GDL.

Tomas SJC
When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the Earth with your eyes turned skyward -Leonardo DaVinci
 
727LOVER
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 5:16 pm

Quoting audidudi (Reply 11):
WOW...I assume you're kidding right? It's been in the news for months already! Where have you been hiding?

All I've heard all summer is Donald Trump & Kardashians. I used to watch The Weather Channel frequently...but not lately, too busy.  
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
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Tomassjc
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 6:14 pm

Quoting Tomassjc (Reply 40):

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 37):
So many were evacuated to GDL...maybe that is where the actual need is for extra sections.

Agree to that! Full GDL-LAX/SJC flights were cancelled this morning (due to their inbounds WX canceled last night) adding to the amount of folks now stuck in GDL.

Tomas SJC

Extra section just added:

AS 9233: 3:40 p.m. Guadalajara-Los Angeles.
When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the Earth with your eyes turned skyward -Leonardo DaVinci
 
usflyguy
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:40 pm

WN is running HOU-PVR-HOU and PHX-PVR-PHX rescue flights today.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2269
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RE: Hurricane Patricia PVR Evacuation Flights

Sat Oct 24, 2015 7:55 pm

Quoting Tomassjc (Reply 42):
Extra section just added:

AS 9233: 3:40 p.m. Guadalajara-Los Angeles.

Just like Hurricane Odile last year in Cabo, AS has really stepped up for their customers.

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