gabrielchew
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All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:28 pm

It seems like Russian/Ukrainian relations are not improving much. As of midnight tonight, all direct flights between the two countries have been cancelled for the foreseeable future:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34622665

"Direct flights between Ukraine and Russia will cease from midnight on Saturday after last-minute crisis talks failed. Moscow first called Kiev's ban on Russian airlines "madness", then announced that it would mirror the move. Ukraine's sanctions are intended to punish Russia for annexing Crimea and supporting armed rebels in eastern Ukraine. "
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thekorean
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:38 pm

This has been reported before but UTAir was allowed to continue.

Now they are banned too? Not good.
 
DDR
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:44 pm

No Moscow-Kiev flights? This is craziness.
 
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lesfalls
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:55 pm

I heard Belarus is happy about this because now much of the traffic will fly via Minsk.
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gabrielchew
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sat Oct 24, 2015 9:03 pm

Quoting Lesfalls (Reply 3):
I heard Belarus is happy about this because now much of the traffic will fly via Minsk.

I guess a lot of airlines are happy, Air Baltic/Austrian/Lufthansa as well as Belarus. I guess they'll all look at adding a little more capacity on flights that connect.
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Marvinhsv
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sat Oct 24, 2015 9:18 pm

Quoting gabrielchew (Reply 4):
Austrian

I've just checked Austrian for flights to KBP and they only offer 11-weekly flights.

Also...
ODS = 4-weekly
DNK = 5-weekly
LWO = 4-weekly

So not really an increase compared to the Summer season.

I guess most flights will be 're-routed' via Belarus/Baltic states and maybe Istanbul for certain cities.
 
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DolphinAir747
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sat Oct 24, 2015 9:32 pm

Politicians really need to grow up and stop acting like middle schoolers. Though the Darth Vader statue in Ukraine was funny.
 
bleudefrance
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 1:37 am

This is so sad. Ukraine will pass through troubled times in the next years, because their economy was highly dependent on Russia.

What is going to happen to Antonov? Their only costumers were Russian companies and the Russian Government.

In my opinion this was just another dirty political trick from OTAN-Obama-Merkel to colapse the Russian economy/society, but the Ukranian people/economy are the ones that will suffer the most... Sad days  
 
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RWA380
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 2:38 am

Quoting bleudefrance (Reply 7):
In my opinion this was just another dirty political trick from OTAN-Obama-Merkel to colapse the Russian economy/society, but the Ukranian people/economy are the ones that will suffer the most... Sad days

Well, we certainly all know, Putin has zero interest in helping Ukraine, so Ukraine will need to become dependent on Western Europe to be a solid trading ally, with possible financial support in the forms of oil & gas in the short term.

It won't be easy or cheap, but the more former Soviet Republics that continue to rely on Moscow will feel the sanctions longer & harder than Russia will be impacted by the actions of the West.

It's very Sad, one can not be anything but empathetic for those innocent individuals that are affected when politicians act like spoiled children with zero interest in the suffering of any other people.
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anrec80
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 5:48 am

Quoting bleudefrance (Reply 7):
What is going to happen to Antonov? Their only costumers were Russian companies and the Russian Government.

What will happen to Antonov? It will remain as some sort of LLC that will hold the IP for the planes made during Soviet times, and collect fees for approvals of life span extensions for flying AN-124, for as long as they can. Nobody else has anything else in mind for it. Just like it was with the rest of Ukrainian economy.
 
anrec80
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 5:57 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 8):
Well, we certainly all know, Putin has zero interest in helping Ukraine

Why would he? And what obligation does he have? And even if he does - Russia will still be claimed "aggressor" anyway. And Ukrainians - once they decided they want to be independent, they should get accustomed to paying their own bills on time. And last winter Russians sent them some electricity and coal on cheap to prevent their energy grid meltdown and the country being thrown into Stone Age overnight. Not that they aren't headed there anyway.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 8):
become dependent on Western Europe

Well, that didn't quite materialize either - exports to Europe actually fell by 30%. Those markets are very competitive. And even for a few things Ukraine cold sell there - their Association agreement imposes small quotas.
 
alfa164
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 6:06 am

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 10):
Russia will still be claimed "aggressor" anyway

Maybe because it has been the aggressor... I guess the truth hurts.
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anrec80
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:07 am

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 11):
Maybe because it has been the aggressor... I guess the truth hurts.

Maybe, maybe not. There are many people here who will claim exactly that, though nobody has seen any of that "aggression". And if you are claiming someone being "an aggressor" without seeing it - the last thing you can count on is their help.
 
anrec80
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:13 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 2):
No Moscow-Kiev flights? This is craziness.

This isn't the craziest thing Kiev regime has done or would do.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:48 am

Quoting bleudefrance (Reply 7):
What is going to happen to Antonov?

If the people at Boeing and Airbus are smart, they'll hire Antonov's people.
-Doc Lightning-

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RWA380
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 9:08 am

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 10):
Russia will still be claimed "aggressor" anyway

Why wouldn't they be called an aggressor, they are! I suppose Crimea annexed itself, I suppose the Russian backed separatists were not anywhere near that Malaysian 777 flying over Russian held territory in the Ukraine. Please Putin is a criminal & should be taken out. He will NEVER cooperate with the rest of the world unless it suits his twisted ideals.

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 10):
once they decided they want to be independent, they should get accustomed to paying their own bills on time.

That is not the problem, utilities to Ukraine were quadrupled in price, overnight & then there was an economic struggle to gain access to gas & coal for last winters heating.

The world is wide aware of what is transpiring in the Ukraine & it's not missing bill payments. It's an obnoxious world leader who thinks he is beyond the law, he acts like he is entitled to things that are not his & he constantly skirts World justice & directives by world entities, by his steadfast refusal to participate in the tribunal for MH17.

Putin vetoed the idea & now it's not happening, Geeee why is that??? Duh, the pencil neck geek is guilty, guilty, guilty of murder many hundreds of times over.

He is guilty & he knows it & won't admit like the US does when we screw up (like a certain doctors without borders hospital that we blew up by accident) He could come out & admit that they were at fault for the tragic incident, Putin is a laughable individual who has zero respect for anyone.

I'd like you all to think about the Donald being President, Can we really afford to have two pompous jackasses flexing their aging muscles with real weapons at the ready, neither has the ability to stop going at someone when they piss them off, what a lovely world we may live in, count me out at that point.

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 10):
And last winter Russians sent them some electricity and coal on cheap to prevent their energy grid meltdown and the country being thrown into Stone Age overnight.

Last year Russia dicked Ukraine by raising prices on all forms of energy 4 - 5 times the rates they charge other countries. Because the Ukraine had been a former Soviet republic they were hard wired to receive everything from Mother Russia, so that is how it was left, everything was moving along until Mr Putin started trying to reform the old USSR.

New trade routes to Western Europe should be formed. BTW, US exports of energy to the world has increased & OPEC is producing more oil now than ever before, there is plenty to go around, Europe nor Ukraine are beholden to Russia for energy needs at all.

The low OPEC prices are a direct hit on Russias economy, which is the reason oil is so cheap right now. Until Russia stops dicking around with the rest of the World, they will continue to be cut off financially at every possible opportunity.

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 12):
Maybe, maybe not. There are many people here who will claim exactly that, though nobody has seen any of that "aggression". And if you are claiming someone being "an aggressor" without seeing it - the last thing you can count on is their help.

The world has seen it, where have you been? We've seen lots & heard even more. The entire west has ears & eyes on Ukraine & their borders, the US has sent aid, money & support to Ukrainians & the facr remains that Russian soldiers are inside Ukraine borders & were never welcomed, the fact Russia took Crimea while denying the event was happening, The fact that Putin has not once done anything at all to help or further the investigation of MH17 proves that he has something to hide & is willing to make a huge jackass of himself doing it in front of the world.

I just saw a three year old in his car seat with frosting all over his face, cheeks, hair, hands etc ... Dad was asking him if he had helped himself to a cupcake that was near him, the boy denied he had eaten the cupcake even though there was hard evidence he did it.

It reminded me of Putin when he dodges questions regarding MH17, we see the frosting all over your hands Mr Putin, be a real man, a true leader & stand up & take care of your mess man, he's a disgrace as a leader & human being.
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ly7e7
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 9:30 am

Russia has banned Ukraine from overflying their territory quite some time ago - leading to a significant increase in flight time from Ukraine to Asia.

As of today it seems that Russians still overfly Ukraine despite the ban on direct flights - flightradar24 shows flights from MOW to KIV, SSH, AYT and other airports using Ukrainian airspace.

So de facto overall situation is as follows: ( although it could be that Ukraine allows overflight selectively)


| Overflight | Bilateral flights
___________________________________
Ukraine | allows | bans
___________________________________
Russia | bans | bans
___________________________________
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Marvinhsv
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:52 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 8):
o Ukraine will need to become dependent on Western Europe

I doubt that's going to be possible. The country relies on Russia and can't survive without it (at least right now).

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 10):
Those markets are very competitive.

Indeed - there's a lot of cheap labour in Eastern Europe that do offer EU-standards on top of that.
 
LGAviation
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 12:06 pm

Are there any codeshares remaining between MOW and KBP. Could imagine that partnering up with Belavia at MSQ could be a real winner for both sides. Anyways, which Russian or Ukrainian carrier currently has the closest ties with them?
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eielef
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 12:19 pm

Actually there are about 15 daily flights between Moscow and Kiev (all airports). Some are carried by Ukrainian carriers, and some other by Russian ones. Also, there are a few dozen flights to other Ukrainian airports, as of DNK, ODS, etc.
People is heavily complaining because now Belavia is offering flights with direct connection on the DME-MSQ-KBP route (on 733) but it costs more than 400EUR. The other option is a 13 hours train ride (there are 6 daily trains).
I don't think this will last any long. It makes no sense for any of the sides, specially for the passengers. MANY Russians have family on Ukrainian and the other way round. Also because of business. I'm going tomorrow to Kharkov, and the easiest option was driving there, as Aeroflot also suspended flights to HRK recently.
 
anrec80
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 2:44 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 14):
If the people at Boeing and Airbus are smart, they'll hire Antonov's people.

If there is anyone left to hire. Antonov didn't do any new designs since An-124. Anything they did are derivatives of what they already had since 80s (An-148 and the likes are modified An-74 from 80s as well). The younger generation of engineers doesn't get exposed to 21st century technology and practices in Ukraine. They usually go to Russian aerospace industry. Folks that left are retirees or in semi-retired age and won't migrate anywhere.
 
mysterzip
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 4:37 pm

Wow. Expected, yet still surprising. I mean if Ukranian airlines are forced to avoid Russia, did we really expect things to get better?

Quoting ly7e7 (Reply 16):

I'm really sorry, but I really do not understand the table that you have produced.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 15):
New trade routes to Western Europe should be formed. BTW, US exports of energy to the world has increased & OPEC is producing more oil now than ever before, there is plenty to go around, Europe nor Ukraine are beholden to Russia for energy needs at all.

New trade routes should be formed, but the way Russia holds its former Soviet territories is actually providing below-market prices for its satellites. Same with Ukraine. This is the worst time for Ukranians to be charged "market prices" for resources they have been accustomed to. I do not know the details of the aid that they received last year from IMF and other banks, but that bill will be due very soon and it puts Ukraine in a very difficult spot.
 
anrec80
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 4:52 pm

Quoting mysterzip (Reply 21):
did we really expect things to get better?

Yes, Ukrainian "patriots" expect exactly that. They believe all ties should be broken, and "those flyers" should at least experience inconvenience and pay.
 
Marvinhsv
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 5:42 pm

Quoting mysterzip (Reply 21):
I mean if Ukranian airlines are forced to avoid Russia

Calm down, please. Ukraine forced Russian airlines to avoid their airspace then Russia announced the same.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 15):
New trade routes to Western Europe should be formed.

Why? (Western point of view)

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 15):
beholden to Russia for energy needs at all.
Quoting RWA380 (Reply 15):
The low OPEC prices

Those low prices are not directly related to Russia but to the US to keep up some competition against fracking. There's more production than before but the demand isn't increasing so prices are falling. In the German WiWo there was an interview with some Saudi oil guy a few months ago and he said that if nobody wants oil anymore it's not worth a penny. So they'll get rid of it asap especially with Iran soon to be another competitor. That's the only reason why OPEC has to keep their prices down. Russia always supplied different countries and building new pipelines for OPEC to Ukraine or so won't happen within a year or two.
 
ly7e7
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:41 pm

Quoting Marvinhsv (Reply 23):
Calm down, please. Ukraine forced Russian airlines to avoid their airspace then Russia announced the same.

This is factually incorrect - Russian aircraft still overfly Ukrainian airspace :
http://www.flightradar24.com/SVR1001/7cd24e9
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AirGAbon
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 10:07 pm

Quoting Marvinhsv (Reply 23):
Ukraine forced Russian airlines to avoid their airspace then Russia announced the same.

According to FR24, Russian Airlines are still overflying Ukraine (SU to KIV and OTP) + various charters from Egypt and Turkey.

Why in this case UIA cannot overfly Russia? Are they still flying to ASB and ALA? How can they do without overflying Russia? Through Turkey/Georgia/Azerbaijan/Caspian?
 
Freshside3
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Sun Oct 25, 2015 10:28 pm

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 15):
That is not the problem, utilities to Ukraine were quadrupled in price, overnight & then there was an economic struggle to gain access to gas & coal for last winters heating.

Ukraine always got screwed on the natural gas prices, long before this. Russia would charge countries further west, considerably less than what they charge Ukraine.
 
aircatalonia
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Mon Oct 26, 2015 12:06 am

A 12h train ride it's not so bad actually. The flight via Minsk or Riga is going to take 4h at least, plus getting to and from the airport that's 6h already. And I bet the train doesn't cost more than 50eur
 
Scipio
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:44 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 1):
This has been reported before but UTAir was allowed to continue.

The Ukrainian sanctions target 27 Russian airlines that operate flights to occupied Crimea and 2 Crimea-based Ukrainian airlines that were "nationalized" by the occupiers. The logic is that these carriers are breaking Ukrainian law. The Ukrainian authorities have said that the carriers could remove themselves from the sanctions list if they paid fines for flying into Crimea illegally and stopped doing so.

Still according to the Ukrainian authorities, banning Russian airlines from flying into Ukraine because they break Ukrainian law is in line with the existing bilateral aviation agreements between Russia and Ukraine.

The Ukrainian sanctions only ban the Russian airlines from overflying Ukrainian territory if they carry military or dual-use equipment. Not sure how this can be verified and enforced, though...

Russia reacted with an indiscriminate ban against all Ukrainian airlines, which obviously has no basis in international law or bilateral agreements.

I have not seen confirmation anywhere that the Ukrainian sanctions have been expanded to all Russian airlines.

I just did a search online for flights from Moscow to Kyiv for this Wednesday and, indeed, no direct flights seem to be available. The best deal is on Air Moldova via Chisinau: $100 and a travel time of just 3h 55 min. Not bad...



Quoting bleudefrance (Reply 7):
Ukraine will pass through troubled times in the next years, because their economy was highly dependent on Russia.

The key word here is "was". Ukraine's economic dependence on Russia is rapidly becoming history. In the first half of 2015, Ukrainian exports to Russia were 56% lower than during the same period last year. During the 12-month period starting with July 2014, they were 64% lower than in 2012. The decline continues at a rapid pace.

Ukrainian exporters are re-orienting to the EU, but even more so to Asia and (other) emerging markets.

During the first half of 2015, 13% of Ukraine's gas imports came from Russia, against 96% in the first half of 2014 ...
 
tu204
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:21 am

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 28):
Ukraine always got screwed on the natural gas prices, long before this. Russia would charge countries further west, considerably less than what they charge Ukraine.

This has to do with Ukraine not being able to actually pay for the resources on time, stealing gas and other hassles vs. countries further west that would actually pay on time for goods delivered.
Reliable customers get better rates, right? 80/20 rule here.
And for the record, countries further west don't get "considerably" cheaper gas, something like 10% for most.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 30):
Russia reacted with an indiscriminate ban against all Ukrainian airlines, which obviously has no basis in international law or bilateral agreements.

What did that Ukranian prime minister actually expect after he decided to ban most Russian airlines from flying in Ukraine? He can't actually be that stupid, can he?
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Marvinhsv
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Mon Oct 26, 2015 7:47 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 30):
Ukrainian exports to Russia were 56% lower than during the same period last year

Probably because the exports in general decreased by roughly 50% between Jul14 and Jul15.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 31):
Eastern Europe needing anything from Russia's failing system & crumbling infrastructure.

You are talking about the EU-members in Eastern Europe aren't you?

Talking about Romania and Bulgaria you're correct. But seriously, I don't see any interest in Ukraine by the West these days - the only interesting thing is basically wheat but they won't sell that I guess.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 31):
I get tired of personal agendas also.

Me too, that's why I don't even use the word Russia in any of my posts if not needed.

[Edited 2015-10-26 00:50:35]
 
Kiwirob
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Mon Oct 26, 2015 8:24 am

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 8):
but the more former Soviet Republics that continue to rely on Moscow will feel the sanctions longer & harder than Russia will be impacted by the actions of the West.

The EU and Norwegian sanctions are due to expire on the 31st January, pending any further silliness.

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 8):
so Ukraine will need to become dependent on Western Europe to be a solid trading ally, with possible financial support in the forms of oil & gas in the short term.

I sincerely hope that we don't end up funding the Ukranian white elephant.

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 9):
It will remain as some sort of LLC that will hold the IP for the planes made during Soviet times, and collect fees for approvals of life span extensions for flying AN-124, for as long as they can.

The IP for the AN124 is apparently jointly owned by Russia and Antonov, they won't be collecting anything.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 14):
If the people at Boeing and Airbus are smart, they'll hire Antonov's people.

If it's anythihng like the shipbuilding industry they all left for Russia years ago, what's left are very old men and a few apprentices.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 30):
The key word here is "was". Ukraine's economic dependence on Russia is rapidly becoming history. In the first half of 2015, Ukrainian exports to Russia were 56% lower than during the same period last year. During the 12-month period starting with July 2014, they were 64% lower than in 2012. The decline continues at a rapid pace.

Since exports from Ukraine have collapsed and they have no other markets this isn't good for them. This is no sows ear into a silk purse situation.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/exports
 
Scipio
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Mon Oct 26, 2015 8:16 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 31):
What did that Ukranian prime minister actually expect after he decided to ban most Russian airlines from flying in Ukraine? He can't actually be that stupid, can he?

What did Russia expect? That it could occupy Crimea, invade Donbass, and still do business in Ukraine?

What did Russian airlines expect? That they could fly into illegally occupied Crimea and still be welcomed at Ukrainian airports?

If anything, the Ukrainian sanctions against Russian airlines operating in Crimea were long overdue.



Quoting Marvinhsv (Reply 32):
Probably because the exports in general decreased by roughly 50% between Jul14 and Jul15.

Ukrainian exports decreased by 32.5% in USD terms between the first half of 2014 and the first half of 2015. In volume terms, they decreased by 24.1%

The main drivers of this decrease are:

- the impact of the conflict on production and export capacity
- the collapse of trade with Russia (-56% decline in exports, in USD terms)
- the decline in global commodity prices, which resulted in lower prices for some key Ukrainian exports


The break in economic relations with Russia is already a fact. It is quite dramatic and thorough, and it is the result of Russia's -- not Ukraine's -- actions. Ukraine is going through the related pain and adjustment right now.

Having absorbed this shock, there is no point for Ukraine to make any concessions to Russia for the sake of an economic dependency that no longer exists...
 
tu204
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Mon Oct 26, 2015 8:42 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 34):
If anything, the Ukrainian sanctions against Russian airlines operating in Crimea were long overdue.

So then no complaints that Ukranian airlines were given the boot from flying to Russia? 
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Scipio
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Mon Oct 26, 2015 9:07 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 35):
So then no complaints that Ukranian airlines were given the boot from flying to Russia? 

No. Nobody I know in Ukraine seems to be terribly upset about this. There is no public outcry. There is no-one in the street demanding the restoration of direct air services with Russia. The airlines are not complaining either. It is not an issue in Ukraine. Just a news item...

Most Ukrainians seem to share my view that this was long overdue.

It may not yet have dawned on you, but with its aggression of the past 1 1/2 years, Russia has lost Ukraine. Probably forever.

"Good riddance", seems to be the view of the vast majority of the population.

Welcome to reality  


From Reuters:

Russia is seeking a mutual lifting of the bans, Ukraine is not interested ...
Ukraine insists that the sanctions can only be lifted after Russian airlines stop flying to illegally occupied Crimea.

Rightly so...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...sia-airlines-idUSKCN0SK1RA20151026
http://ru.reuters.com/article/topNews/idRUKCN0SK1ZR20151026

There is no need for any compromise here.

[Edited 2015-10-26 14:10:32]

[Edited 2015-10-26 14:45:48]
 
Marvinhsv
Posts: 235
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2009 3:55 pm

RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 9:37 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 34):
Ukrainian exports decreased by 32.5% in USD terms between the first half of 2014 and the first half of 2015. In volume terms, they decreased by 24.1%

Maybe you could share a source for those numbers - mine says something different.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/exports

If the exports in general decrease by 50% then it's no suprise that exports to Russia decrease by 50%, too.
 
tu204
Posts: 2022
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 10:34 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 36):

Then there's no problem, is there? 

Ukranian migrant workers can fly through Minsk, Lukashenko and Belavia can enjoy the extra income.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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Aeroflot777
Posts: 3167
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RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 11:09 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 36):
No. Nobody I know in Ukraine seems to be terribly upset about this. There is no public outcry. There is no-one in the street demanding the restoration of direct air services with Russia. The airlines are not complaining either. It is not an issue in Ukraine. Just a news item...

Then you don't know too many people there it seems. While there will be a ton of revenue lost on both sides and mostly on the Russian side as more RUS airlines operate those routes, the real hit would be on the innocent traveling public, the majority of whom is made up of Ukrainian nationals, either those that do business between the two, are traveling back and forth to see family (tons of family ties between these two nations), or Ukrainians who are living in Russia going home for visits.

It's very evident that the people that you know in Ukraine, if true, are extreme nationalists with an agenda. Any average person living in Ukraine that has some sort of ties to Russia, which is the majority, will tell you their own personal negative impacts of all this political BS.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34622665

The EU has so many problems to deal with right now and Ukraine is so far down the list it's not even funny. False promises on the part of EU administration and Ukrainians fell for it during their uprisings. Sad state of affairs for our brothers and sisters in Ukraine as a whole.

And your numbers about exports being down? They are down across the board for Ukraine as a whole, isolating numbers for Ukraine-Russia only makes no sense when the whole piece of the pie is missing from that logic.
 
eielef
Posts: 716
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2007 4:07 am

RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 12:20 pm

I crossed last night the M2/M20 border between the provinces of Belgorod in Russia and Kharkov in Ukraine. There was really few people, 90% of cars had Ukrainian plates and just 9% of the cars had Russian plates (Plates 31 - Belgorod or 46 - Kursk).
Crossing by road is also possible, as there are multiple check points, that operate 24h a day.
I can't say people was kind nor sympathetic at either side, but my situation was a bit strange: I was the only foreigner doing that route and they suspected something strange. But after checking my passport 10 times, and by 10 different officers, also calling my hotel in Kharkov to see if my booking was real (can you cheat on booking.com) and even opening my luggage many times and checking even how many medicines I had (and the prescriptions for all of them), they let me go.
Controls are rigorous, but there is nothing abnormal with this. Controls are worse entering the EU from Russia, in the borders with Lithuania and Finland. Estonia and Latvia was the easiest of all, but I spent really lots of time explaining what the hell I was doing there...

It was recently published that the trade between Kazakhstan and Russia has fallen by 40% between 2014 and 2015. But if you see the number in Russian Rubbles, the numbers have increased a bit. If you convert them to dollars, it might have fallen, but in both tons and rubbles is the same amount.
I think with Ukraine it could be a similar situation, and 56% drop might me a bit exaggerated (last october 1USD was 35RUB, today is 65RUB).
Plus: Ukraine is extremely cheap for Russian tourists. They mostly don't come because is not a really nice country to visit, but in my experience I'm spending less in a 5 stars hotel in Kharkov than in a 2 stars soviet-stile hotel in Kursk (were I staid on sunday). I'm going back to the Spa!
Cheers
Eielef @HRK

PS: Russian airlines won't stop flying to Crimea. That's a definite statement. A return ticket with Aeroflot for any weekend is just 5000pyb (about 80USD). Its so cheap (the same price as 10 Big-Mac meals in Mc Donalds) that I'll do it soon, although I already spent my summer holidays between Crimea and Sochi. Just for flying around...
 
Scipio
Posts: 926
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:38 am

RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:29 pm

Quoting Marvinhsv (Reply 37):
Maybe you could share a source for those numbers
http://www.beratergruppe-ukraine.de/.../uploads/2014/06/PB_13_2015_en.pdf

Also:

http://www.beratergruppe-ukraine.de/..._80_2015_German-Advisory-Group.pdf

Exports to Russia declined from 29% of total Ukrainian exports in 2012 to 11% in the first quarter of this year...

Quote:
... a clear and accelerating trend of economic disintegration between the countries can be clearly observed, especially regarding trade.
 
irshava
Posts: 269
Joined: Tue Oct 04, 2011 1:11 am

RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 3:12 pm

Quoting eielef (Reply 40):
They mostly don't come because is not a really nice country to visit

True beliefs revealed.

Russians wouldn't be wailing like sirens and begging about the fact that Ukraine closed its airports to Russian airlines if Russians didn't want to visit.

Ukraine is cheap for Russian tourists? Ukraine's cost of living and food prices are lower than in Russia... Don't tell me that it's better to live in a country that's sanctioned by every respectable power in the world with a crumbling economy and ultranationalist Soviet-style dictator. Just stop embarrassing yourself.
“If you were born without wings, do nothing to prevent them from growing.”
 
ly7e7
Posts: 2229
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2004 3:15 am

RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:02 pm

So far it seems that lack of direct connection is nothing but a minor nuisance. Connection flights are plentiful and cheap - most under 5 hours enroute.
2 things are endless: ignorance and space
 
Marvinhsv
Posts: 235
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2009 3:55 pm

RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:11 pm

Quoting irshava (Reply 42):
sanctioned by every respectable power

I don't want to start any new discussion about this Ukraine/Russia thing but this statement is simply incorrect. The only countries being part of those sanctions is the US, Canada, Australia and the EU. The only world power of the four is the US. There still are many options to trade with Russia - just not via the official way. (how do you think Iran would have survived...) And the US couldn't have any power without its local allies.

Just see who bought some Russian Kamovs - a Western ally called Egypt.

[Edited 2015-10-27 09:22:46]
 
alfa164
Posts: 3125
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:47 am

RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:20 pm

Quoting Marvinhsv (Reply 44):
I don't want to start any new discussion about this Ukraine/Russia thing but this statement is simply incorrect. The only countries being part of those sanctions is the US, Canada, Australia and the EU. The only world power of the four is the US.

Really? The EU is not a "world power"? And that statement comes from someone who claims to live in the EU...
  

Quoting Marvinhsv (Reply 44):
Just see who bought some Russian Kamovs - a Western ally called Egypt.

Great! I guess Egypt will pick up all the slack from the exports Russia previously sent to the EU, USA, Canada, Australia, et al...
I'm going to have a smokin' hot body again!
I have decided to be cremated....
 
Marvinhsv
Posts: 235
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2009 3:55 pm

RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:24 pm

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 45):
The EU is not a "world power"?

Not really. Together with the US, yes. But otherwise, no. Those days are long gone. Give me a single argument why they should be.
 
irshava
Posts: 269
Joined: Tue Oct 04, 2011 1:11 am

RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:31 pm

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 45):
Really? The EU is not a "world power"?

Too much Russian propaganda. Only Russians say the EU is worthless. This is a classic example of a Putin sympathizer in the Western World who hates his own country and was captivated by Putin's charming lies.

Classic classic case. Which is why I refuse to even respond to him and urge others to do the same.
“If you were born without wings, do nothing to prevent them from growing.”
 
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moo
Posts: 4897
Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 2:27 am

RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:35 pm

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 45):
Really? The EU is not a "world power"? And that statement comes from someone who claims to live in the EU...

No, we aren't and we never have been.

The EU doesn't have a military or a combined defence agreement, we don't have a unified fiscal policy etc. How can the EU be a world power if it doesn't have the ability to throw financial or military weight around outside of its own members?
 
Marvinhsv
Posts: 235
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2009 3:55 pm

RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:37 pm

Quoting irshava (Reply 47):
EU is worthless.

Not when it comes to economical power but for sure political.

Instead of just bashing around - share your arguments why they should be. Check out the last conflicts in the Middle East and tell me what kind of influence they had.
 
Marvinhsv
Posts: 235
Joined: Sun Oct 04, 2009 3:55 pm

RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:40 pm

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 45):
I guess Egypt will pick up all the slack from the exports Russia previously sent to the EU, USA, Canada, Australia, et al...

It was an example that Russia still exports something and is not completely cut-off. That will have included quite a discount for sure but sold is sold.
 
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bikerthai
Posts: 3036
Joined: Wed Apr 28, 2010 1:45 pm

RE: All Russia-Ukraine Flights Cancelled Indefinitely

Tue Oct 27, 2015 4:44 pm

Quoting Marvinhsv (Reply 46):

Not really. Together with the US, yes. But otherwise, no. Those days are long gone.

I guess some people just won't believe that the only criteria to becoming a wold power is a powerful army that flexes it's muscle 

Those who experience a totalitarian state with government run economy do not appreciate the effectiveness of free-enterprise. If Ukraine is not saddled with a civil war, then the world economy will soon enough find a way to utilize the Ukrainian agricultural products. It would not be easy, just asks the Poles and Hungarians. But they are in much better shape today than the other states under Russian influence.

As for Boeing or Airbus working with Antonov. I don't see it any time soon. Boeing is dependent on Russian titanium and would not want to tip over that apple cart.

bt
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