flybry
Topic Author
Posts: 139
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2012 11:26 am

Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Sun Oct 25, 2015 6:13 pm

Please forgive me if this has already been discussed, and please feel free to take this post down if it has. I don't post too often and I really don't mean any offense if this is a topic that has been talked about recently. As far as I know, Delta does not fly nonstop from SEA to ORD. If Delta wants to build up SEA as a true hub, a nonstop to ORD would seem to be necessary. What do you guys think?

(Sorry again if this has already been discussed!)
 
User avatar
compensateme
Posts: 3279
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Sun Oct 25, 2015 6:45 pm

I'm uncertain as to why you believe Chicago is an omni-important market to Seattle; DL's SEA operations are primarily concentrated on Western markets, with few links East beyond its hubs.

What do I think? CHI/SEA peaks at 21 daily flights (6x each from AA, UA & WN; 3x from AS) and is flooded with capacity - for a similar topic earlier this year, I demonstrated that only about 1/3 of the capacity offered in 2014 carried local traffic. Average fares aren't hot and frequency would handicap DL. It'd be a very difficult market to find success, status quo.

[Edited 2015-10-25 11:46:51]
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
User avatar
northwestEWR
Posts: 1974
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2004 12:45 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Sun Oct 25, 2015 6:47 pm

Eventually, they're going to have to add this market if they want to build their O/D out of SEA.

I'm surprised it hasn't been added already. I'd expect 3x daily on 738s or 319/320.
Northwest Airlines - Now You're Flying Smart
 
User avatar
compensateme
Posts: 3279
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:07 pm

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 2):
I'm surprised it hasn't been added already. I'd expect 3x daily on 738s or 319/320.

SEA/CHI is flooded with capacity and DL is handicapped by having limited feed at SEA -- and MSP/SLC are better positioned to handle it. Unless you're attracting oodles of full-fare passengers, "3x daily on 738s or 319/320" would hemorrhage cash.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
steex
Posts: 1428
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:45 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:11 pm

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 3):
SEA/CHI is flooded with capacity and DL is handicapped by having limited feed at SEA -- and MSP/SLC are better positioned to handle it. Unless you're attracting oodles of full-fare passengers, "3x daily on 738s or 319/320" would hemorrhage cash.

I think you're right. But, I also think they'll still eventually feel pressured to add it.

This is my take on the issue:

1) DL's primary goal was to wrap up the international traffic at SEA, not have a full-blown hub. The original attempt was to win the SEA-Asia/Europe O&D business and provide enough domestic connectivity to capture connectors that weren't especially feasible for them before (largely west coast to Asia). Many of these routes overlap with AS, but they largely tried to avoid other competitors initially since they're not trying to lose their shirts in the process.

2) As the DL/AS relationship deteriorated, DL was surprised more ex-SEA flyers didn't choose to move their business primarily to DL instead of AS & friends. AS continues to add nonstop markets in the Eastern and Central Time Zones from SEA, allowing them to continue offering a breadth of service DL hadn't originally wanted to provide.

3) DL has been forced to continue adding new domestic markets at SEA just to keep up with AS's expanding portfolio because they need to be able to serve people's domestic needs ex-SEA if they're going to win the loyal customers they need to fill their SEA-Asia flights. However, they are still primarily adding routes in the Pacific & Mountain Time Zones (plus Alaska & Hawaii). Where they have finally decided to expand further east, they are looking at traditionally strong DL markets which still avoid direct competition with AA/UA/WN as much as possible - routes like BOS and MCO. Besides that, the list of cities DL serves east of the Rockies is pretty close to a list of DL’s hubs. It doesn’t include some of the thinner interesting routes that AS is on like BNA, MCI, MKE, OMA, RDU, STL, etc.

4) That last point is, presumably, the reason we don't see DL on SEA-Chicago. It's a major market that they probably know they need to be in to provide that domestic link for its desired SEA flyers if wants to win them, but it's a route with a lot of capacity already provided by AA, AS, UA, and WN. As a result, it's fairly likely to turn a significant loss for DL as the fifth carrier when the other four are pretty entrenched. Additionally, the route adds relatively little value in terms of Asian connectivity for DL at SEA since DTW already serves those connections more efficiently. For what it's worth, most of that also applies to the LAX-ORD hole in the DL route map for the growing LAX hub.

Given the current state of the AS/DL relationship, someone who is better served by AS domestically is likely to stick with AS and direct their intercontinental travel onto BA, EK, FI, HU, or KE. Those airlines collectively give travelers ex-SEA comparable access to most of Europe (minus Amsterdam & Paris) and Asia (minus Tokyo). DL will probably have to outstrip AS's domestic network to win a lot of those customers, and that will prove difficult from the perspective of both short-term bottom line and SEA resources (gates are tight for adding dozens of new flights east of the Rockies).
 
Shields
Posts: 77
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:49 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:13 pm

Are the yields really that awful? I'm playing around on Google Flights-searching for a one-week r/t in January-and ORD prices around $350-$400 for nonstop options. As a point of comparison, that's about $100 more than similarly timed midcon r/ts from DTW, MKE, STL, and MCI.

If Delta added capacity, fares would have to decrease, but the Chicago-Seattle market does not appear, at first glance, to be a bloodbath.
 
User avatar
compensateme
Posts: 3279
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:52 pm

Quoting Shields (Reply 5):
Are the yields really that awful? I'm playing around on Google Flights-searching for a one-week r/t in January-and ORD prices around $350-$400 for nonstop options. As a point of comparison, that's about $100 more than similarly timed midcon r/ts from DTW, MKE, STL, and MCI.

If Delta added capacity, fares would have to decrease, but the Chicago-Seattle market does not appear, at first glance, to be a bloodbath.

I didn't imply that SEA/CHI is a "bloodbath;" I pointed out that average airfares aren't hot (less than neighboring Midwestern communities, which is fairly typical of CHI given the level of competition; one-day fare snapshots of randomly selected dates is completely useless FWIW) and there's ample capacity in the market.

What would DL bring to the market? Virtually all its connecting flows are replicated, and better handled by, MSP & SLC. It isn't going to make a dent in CHI POS for O/D traffic, and it's still building its position at SEA. Ya really think DL can garner enough premium traffic on a daily basis to make this flight profitable, or contribute positively to the SEA operation? Like I said earlier, four carriers operated a combined 21 flights in the market on peak days this past summer.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
rta
Posts: 1413
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2015 2:01 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:05 pm

I was actually wondering why it seems like I never fly Delta these days and then I remembered they don't do ORD - LAX/BOS/SEA and only put regional jets to NYC.

[Edited 2015-10-25 13:06:20]
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5332
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:18 pm

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 2):
Eventually, they're going to have to add this market if they want to build their O/D out of SEA.

Exactly.

More mid range flying is in the pipe.
 
User avatar
compensateme
Posts: 3279
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:23 pm

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 8):
More mid range flying is in the pipe.

That sounds affirmative -- do you know this to be a fact? Or is it an opinion?
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 17569
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:44 pm

...because mainline is flying is expensive, particularly up against AS. Hence the vast majority of new domestic flying is outsourced.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 9615
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:50 pm

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 1):

I'm uncertain as to why you believe Chicago is an omni-important market to Seattle;

It's the largest market DL does not fly from SEA. If memory serves it is #5 or #6.

Quoting steex (Reply 4):
DL's primary goal was to wrap up the international traffic at SEA,

Originally...

Quoting steex (Reply 4):
DL has been forced to continue adding new domestic markets at SEA just to keep up with AS's expanding portfolio

True

Quoting steex (Reply 4):
That last point is, presumably, the reason we don't see DL on SEA-Chicago. It's a major market that they probably know they need to be in to provide that domestic link for its desired SEA flyers if wants to win them, but it's a route with a lot of capacity already provided by AA, AS, UA, and WN.

I think the issue is that to be significant they would have to add several flights to be competitive with those guys and yes they would get slaughtered I suspect.
 
Shields
Posts: 77
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:49 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:55 pm

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 6):
I didn't imply that SEA/CHI is a "bloodbath;"

Yo, Comp: You said that the market is "flooded with capacity" and that if Delta were to join, the route would "hemorrhage cash." I simply said that the fares didn't appear to reveal a bloodbath! You okay, chief?

DOT 2015 Q1 statistics (average one-way fares) below:

SEA-ORD: $274

SEA-DFW: $278
SEA-MSP: $257
SEA-DTW: $262
SEA-STL: $243
SEA-MCI: $234
SEA-MKE: $224
 
UA444
Posts: 2783
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:03 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 12:05 am

Flight is doable with an MD-80 correct?
 
Shields
Posts: 77
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:49 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 12:15 am

Quoting UA444 (Reply 13):
Flight is doable with an MD-80 correct?

MD-88 might be pushing it, and Delta is increasingly relegating those birds to operations under 1000mi. At 1721mi, this seems like A319/738 territory to me.
 
User avatar
compensateme
Posts: 3279
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 12:20 am

Quoting Shields (Reply 12):
Yo, Comp: You said that the market is "flooded with capacity" and that if Delta were to join, the route would "hemorrhage cash." I simply said that the fares didn't appear to reveal a bloodbath! You okay, chief?

DOT 2015 Q1 statistics (average one-way fares) below:

DL has (very) limited feed at SEA and none at ORD, thus the route will rely on local traffic. If DL were to add 3 daily 738, the capacity equates to half of the SEA/ORD local market (on average). There's already 21 daily flights on peak days between CHI/SEA, and if you include MDW (since MDW does indeed compete with ORD for passengers), fares between CHI/SEA are indeed lower than many peer Midwestern communities (which is true of the competitive Chicago market in general). Are people willing to pay a premium to fly DL, or will it have to offer low fares to stimulate demand? The route would be a financial loser for DL status quo.

BTW, did you learn grammar from Deltal1011man?
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
User avatar
northwestEWR
Posts: 1974
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2004 12:45 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 12:29 am

I have no doubt that it would probably lose money for the foreseeable future but that's the cost of building a hub in SEA--if they want a hub with strong O/D, they need to fly where people want to go and Chicago is one of them. I suspect it's important to some of the largest company contracts in the area as well--Boeing being one of them.
Northwest Airlines - Now You're Flying Smart
 
Shields
Posts: 77
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:49 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 12:41 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 15):
fares between CHI/SEA are indeed lower than many peer Midwestern communities

Yo, Comp: Dang. This topic really gets under your skin, huh? DL may indeed hemorrhage money by flying ORD-SEA. I just haven't seen empirical evidence that the yields on ORD-SEA are piss poor. I should clarify: the DOT statistics to which I refer actually reveal the Chicago-Seattle market, which presumably includes both ORD and MDW.

You saw the DOT statistics I offered. What are all of these peer Midwestern markets you speak of that have higher average airfares? Show me da data, dawg!
 
User avatar
compensateme
Posts: 3279
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 12:47 am

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 16):
I have no doubt that it would probably lose money for the foreseeable future but that's the cost of building a hub in SEA--if they want a hub with strong O/D, they need to fly where people want to go and Chicago is one of them. I suspect it's important to some of the largest company contracts in the area as well--Boeing being one of them.
AS is going to be able to better serve companies like Boeing, Microsoft, etc. (hence the new southern service). SEA is restrained, in the short term opportunity costs suggests that DL would be better using its resources elsewhere than as the 5th carrier on SEA/CHI.

Quoting Shields (Reply 17):
Yo, Comp: Dang. This topic really gets under your skin, huh? DL may indeed hemorrhage money by flying ORD-SEA. I just haven't seen empirical evidence that the yields on ORD-SEA are piss poor. I should clarify: the DOT statistics to which I refer actually reveal the Chicago-Seattle market, which presumably includes both ORD and MDW.

You saw the DOT statistics I offered. What are all of these peer Midwestern markets you speak of that have higher average airfares? Show me da data, dawg!

You She, you be wrong if you be thinking that it includes both ORD & MDW, you know what I'm saying? And you ain't be no getting under my skin I just enjoys me some conversate.

[Edited 2015-10-25 17:52:09]
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9526
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 12:49 am

Quoting Shields (Reply 17):
You saw the DOT statistics I offered. What are all of these peer Midwestern markets you speak of that have higher average airfares?

Well, one thing is for sure. A lot of people are moving in the SEACHI market and if the average fair has held up relative to a number of the other markets, that's pretty good.

No doubt in my mind: DL is coming to SEA-CHI.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
Shields
Posts: 77
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:49 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:04 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 18):
You She, you be wrong if you be thinking that it includes both ORD & MDW, you know what I'm saying? And you ain't be no getting under my skin but I enjoys me a good debate, yo.

To clear the air, I am not a DL fanboy or fanatical believer in DL's SEA buildup. I'm simply interested in the data--and you may be completely correct. However, you have not yet demonstrated that the fares between Chicago and Seattle are weak, relative to 'peer markets.' You've just asked us to take your word for it.

FWIW, this summer on peak days, UA is 4x/daily; AA is 6x/daily; AS is 4x/daily. WN's schedule (from MDW) has not been extended that far.
 
ridgid727
Posts: 1080
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:58 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:28 am

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 8):
More mid range flying is in the pipe.

This will be at the expense of SLC
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 9615
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:45 am

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 21):

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 8):
More mid range flying is in the pipe.

This will be at the expense of SLC

The DL fanboys are in denial about that, but I think even if it is not the plan to rob SLC, it will happen anyway as a natural outcome of optimizing capacity as SEA adds more overlapping markets. So while the fanboys may be right it is not the "plan", it is a logical outcome regardless of whether it is the plan because they won't retreat on SEA and nothing prevents it in SLC.
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1590
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:49 am

Oddly enough, I can see DL doing this, for a number of reasons. AS is already doing it, and DL's mode of operation is to go head-to-head with them.

UA should get bigger planes on SEA-ORD, as the load factors are extremely high, but they are not. And they have been taking more denied boardings than expected, for this time of year.

AA's focus has been on the merger, and most of the attention is concentrated on DFW and PHL, more so than the other hubs.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9526
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:59 am

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 23):

Oddly enough, I can see DL doing this, for a number of reasons. AS is already doing it, and DL's mode of operation is to go head-to-head with them.

In the case of ORD, I doubt it would have anything directly to do with AS and more to do with the inevitable need to provide a competitive schedule for business travelers (particularly to Asia) that don't wish to double-connect over MSP/SLC. There are certainly routes that one could see the finger being given to AS on, but SEAORD isn't one of them imho.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6314
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:12 am

Quoting UA444 (Reply 13):
Flight is doable with an MD-80 correct?

AA flew ORD-SEA with MD-80s for many years with no problem.

Quoting enilria (Reply 22):
Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 21):

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 8):
More mid range flying is in the pipe.

This will be at the expense of SLC

The DL fanboys are in denial about that, but I think even if it is not the plan to rob SLC, it will happen anyway as a natural outcome of optimizing capacity as SEA adds more overlapping markets. So while the fanboys may be right it is not the "plan", it is a logical outcome regardless of whether it is the plan because they won't retreat on SEA and nothing prevents it in SLC.

Yeah, I keep hearing that DL will downsize SLC. That's why they're tripling their summer SLC-Europe capacity next year over what they've had in the past.
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1590
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:38 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 24):
In the case of ORD, I doubt it would have anything directly to do with AS and more to do with the inevitable need to provide a competitive schedule for business travelers (particularly to Asia) that don't wish to double-connect over MSP/SLC. There are certainly routes that one could see the finger being given to AS on, but SEAORD isn't one of them imho.

Did DL downsize Asia flying out of MSP after the merger? What's left to Asia from there??
 
Shields
Posts: 77
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:49 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:47 am

DL has reduced capacity on MSP-NRT, the only Asian destination from MSP. The flight is operated by a 777-200; until last year, the flight was operated by a 747-400. To the best of my knowledge, Tokyo is the only Asian destination that has seen consistent scheduled passenger service from MSP.
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1590
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:22 am

Quoting Shields (Reply 27):
DL has reduced capacity on MSP-NRT, the only Asian destination from MSP. The flight is operated by a 777-200; until last year, the flight was operated by a 747-400. To the best of my knowledge, Tokyo is the only Asian destination that has seen consistent scheduled passenger service from MSP.

With that in mind, it makes sense now to tap into the SEA hub with a trip from ORD. I had no clue it was just to the one 777 from MSP.
 
User avatar
northwestEWR
Posts: 1974
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2004 12:45 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:40 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 18):
AS is going to be able to better serve companies like Boeing, Microsoft, etc. (hence the new southern service). SEA is restrained, in the short term opportunity costs suggests that DL would be better using its resources elsewhere than as the 5th carrier on SEA/CHI.

Until this summer, that was probably true but DL has been stealing a number of those high value corporate clients away from Alaska and in order to keep them happy, they'll have to cater to their SEA destination demands. Chicago is an obvious hole.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 19):
No doubt in my mind: DL is coming to SEA-CHI.

  

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 21):
This will be at the expense of SLC

Yes and no. See below.

Quoting enilria (Reply 22):
The DL fanboys are in denial about that, but I think even if it is not the plan to rob SLC, it will happen anyway as a natural outcome of optimizing capacity as SEA adds more overlapping markets.

   It won't be an intentional hit to SLC but it's going to happen if they bypass that hub. The same is true of MSP to a lesser extent.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 25):
Yeah, I keep hearing that DL will downsize SLC. That's why they're tripling their summer SLC-Europe capacity next year over what they've had in the past.

Nobody said downsize but bypassing the SLC hub will nonstop SEA flights will certainly have an effect on SLC. That said, SLC is doing very well and the increasing Europe coverage shows DL's commitment to the region.

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 28):
With that in mind, it makes sense now to tap into the SEA hub with a trip from ORD. I had no clue it was just to the one 777 from MSP.

  
Northwest Airlines - Now You're Flying Smart
 
jetlanta
Posts: 1640
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2001 2:35 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 3:42 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 18):
AS is going to be able to better serve companies like Boeing, Microsoft, etc. (hence the new southern service). SEA is restrained, in the short term opportunity costs suggests that DL would be better using its resources elsewhere than as the 5th carrier on SEA/CHI.

Except Delta is winning the big companies in SEA, like Microsoft. Turns out Microsoft sends more people to Asia than Palm Springs. AS is doing very well with small and mid-size, locally-based companies, but Delta is having a lot of success with the SEA-based Fortune 500s.

Quoting enilria (Reply 22):
The DL fanboys are in denial about that, but I think even if it is not the plan to rob SLC, it will happen anyway as a natural outcome of optimizing capacity as SEA adds more overlapping markets. So while the fanboys may be right it is not the "plan", it is a logical outcome regardless of whether it is the plan because they won't retreat on SEA and nothing prevents it in SLC.

No it is not. The logical outcome is that SLC/SEA/LAX triangulate the western U.S. and provide Delta with the most comprehensive network in the region. In fact, much of Delta's success in developing LAX and SEA is built on the value that SLC provides. SLC performance has actually improved as LAX and SEA have grown. It is basic multi-hub network dynamics.

Your network philosophy would say that Delta doesn't need a DTW hub because it has NYC and ATL. I'm pretty sure you don't believe that is true.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2049
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:15 am

Quoting steex (Reply 4):
Where they have finally decided to expand further east, they are looking at traditionally strong DL markets which still avoid direct competition with AA/UA/WN as much as possible - routes like BOS and MCO. Besides that, the list of cities DL serves east of the Rockies is pretty close to a list of DL’s hubs. It doesn’t include some of the thinner interesting routes that AS is on like BNA, MCI, MKE, OMA, RDU, STL, etc.
Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 8):
Exactly.

More mid range flying is in the pipe.
Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 21):
This will be at the expense of SLC
Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 29):
Until this summer, that was probably true but DL has been stealing a number of those high value corporate clients away from Alaska and in order to keep them happy, they'll have to cater to their SEA destination demands. Chicago is an obvious hole.

Every flight DL adds east of SEA cannibalizes current service to SLC, MSP, DTW and ATL. On top of that, the flights that they DO add lose money. So now you have money-losing new service and possibly barely profitable flights to their hubs that used to mint money. Much of the DL flying is on high CASM regional partners that can't compete with AS cost-wise. It's a lose-lose for DL in SEA.
 
User avatar
northwestEWR
Posts: 1974
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2004 12:45 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:18 am

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 31):
Every flight DL adds east of SEA cannibalizes current service to SLC, MSP, DTW and ATL. On top of that, the flights that they DO add lose money. So now you have money-losing new service and possibly barely profitable flights to their hubs that used to mint money. Much of the DL flying is on high CASM regional partners that can't compete with AS cost-wise. It's a lose-lose for DL in SEA.

Except for the part where Revenue Management is projecting a break even for Summer 2016 and the rest of the network generates 20% margins.
Northwest Airlines - Now You're Flying Smart
 
Sightseer
Posts: 945
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:04 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:37 am

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 31):
So now you have money-losing new service and possibly barely profitable flights to their hubs that used to mint money

If DL is "barely profitable" flying from its well-established hubs to its growing SEA hub, I can only imagine how much money it "loses" flying hub-hub routes like DTW-MSP or ATL-LGA ...
 
Shields
Posts: 77
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:49 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 4:40 am

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 18):
you be wrong if you be thinking that it includes both ORD & MDW, you know what I'm saying

DOT statistics do in fact reveal data from both ORD and MDW under the "Chicago" umbrella, just as they reveal IAH and HOU under the "Houston" umbrella and DAL and DFW under the "Dallas/Fort Worth" umbrella.

Looking at the Chicago-Seattle fare information from Q1 2015, we learn the following:

Average Daily Passengers: 1,132
Average One Way Fare: $274

Largest Carrier: AS
Percent Market Share: 31%
Average Fare-AS: $258

Lowest Fare Carrier: WN
Percent Market Share: 18%
Average Fare-WN: $238.
 
michman
Posts: 901
Joined: Sat Dec 23, 2006 9:51 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 5:03 am

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 31):
Every flight DL adds east of SEA cannibalizes current service to SLC, MSP, DTW and ATL. On top of that, the flights that they DO add lose money. So now you have money-losing new service and possibly barely profitable flights to their hubs that used to mint money. Much of the DL flying is on high CASM regional partners that can't compete with AS cost-wise. It's a lose-lose for DL in SEA.

Almost all the flying DL has added out of SEA have been intra-west routes to this point. Some cannabilization of SLC perhaps, but pretty zero of MSP, DTW, and ATL.
 
mpdpilot
Posts: 798
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:44 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 5:46 am

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 31):
Every flight DL adds east of SEA cannibalizes current service to SLC, MSP, DTW and ATL. On top of that, the flights that they DO add lose money. So now you have money-losing new service and possibly barely profitable flights to their hubs that used to mint money. Much of the DL flying is on high CASM regional partners that can't compete with AS cost-wise. It's a lose-lose for DL in SEA.

For this cannibalizing to have a significant effect on other hubs you really have to assume two things, first, that DL is not adding new passengers in SEA, and that DL is not taking passengers away from other carriers. These two things have to be true. If they are false then DL isn't necessarily cannibalizing anything.

Another thing to think about is that if DL takes passengers away from SLC or MSP, that allows them room to grow in those regions without adding new flights.

Remember airlines are a system and while we often focus on individual markets, those individual markets interact with the system as a whole.

From the sound of things, DL is doing a pretty good job of taking customers from other airlines and attracting new customers. But that is my anecdotal observations so take that with a grain of salt.
One mile of highway gets you one mile, one mile of runway gets you anywhere.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9526
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 5:57 am

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 30):
AS is doing very well with small and mid-size, locally-based companies, but Delta is having a lot of success with the SEA-based Fortune 500s.

That would make sense given the two carrier's strengths.

Quoting Shields (Reply 34):
Looking at the Chicago-Seattle fare information from Q1 2015, we learn the following:

Average Daily Passengers: 1,132
Average One Way Fare: $274

Largest Carrier: AS
Percent Market Share: 31%
Average Fare-AS: $258

Lowest Fare Carrier: WN
Percent Market Share: 18%
Average Fare-WN: $238.

A few notes:

--> I'm surprised that AS is the market share leader given that AA/UA have held a pretty sizable capacity lead over AS and have enormous hubs in ORD.

--> Not much of a difference in the average fare between AS as the market share leader and WN as the low fare leader. That really points to the strength and perhaps preference of either/both ORD over MDW, and network carriers over WN. (Or something else. hehe It might just be that AS is the preferred carrier in SEA and they serve ORD, so there you go.)

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
User avatar
RWA380
Posts: 5521
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 10:51 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 6:26 am

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 25):
AA flew ORD-SEA with MD-80s for many years with no problem.

And I can not remember how many times I've flown AA M80's SEA/PDX-ORD. There return trips could take 4h 45m.

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 28):
With that in mind, it makes sense now to tap into the SEA hub with a trip from ORD. I had no clue it was just to the one 777 from MSP.

DL isn't getting much of the business traffic from Chicago, that is for UA & AA to enjoy. Unless someone is bargain hunting they would go n/s ORD-TYO on a myriad of carriers vs flying DL via MSP & even worse via SEA, it's not worth it for DL.

If DL wants the premium traffic CHI-TYO then they best go back to the old NW routes & start flying non-stop. But that will never happen,

NW was so Chicago centric back in the 60's, 70's & into the 80's. I can remember flying ORD-PDX & ORD-SEA on a 747 & SEA-PDx on a DC-10. It's too bad that they didn't try & retain their impressive presence there vs the MSP hub.
707, 717, 720, 727-1/2, 737-1/2/3/4/5/7/8/9, 747-1/2/3, 757, 767-2/3/4, 777-2/3, DC8, DC9, MD80/2/7/8, D10-1/3/4, M11, L10-2/5, A300/310/319/320
AA AC AQ BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HG HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WN WP YS 8M
 
jayunited
Posts: 2255
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 9:51 am

I think the biggest problem DL has at ORD is available gate space. DL only has 8 gates in T2 UA beat them to the punch and secured more gates in T2 when US moved to T3. When you only have 8 gates if you are going to add flights multiple nonstop flights to SEA, LAX or even BOS as some have suggested then your are going to have to cut flights to other destinations like LGA, ATL, SLC, DTW, and MSP to free up some gates to operate these additional flights.

Quoting Freshside3 (Reply 28):

Quoting Shields (Reply 27):
DL has reduced capacity on MSP-NRT, the only Asian destination from MSP. The flight is operated by a 777-200; until last year, the flight was operated by a 747-400. To the best of my knowledge, Tokyo is the only Asian destination that has seen consistent scheduled passenger service from MSP.

With that in mind, it makes sense now to tap into the SEA hub with a trip from ORD. I had no clue it was just to the one 777 from MSP.

The problem here is ORD already has 5 nonstop flights to NRT and ORD to Asia is pretty much covered by quite a few airlines so it would be hard for DL to convince corporate clients to abandon carriers who offers a nonstop flight for a connection in SEA. If ORD - Asia was not so well served then I think DL probably would have tapped into this market some time ago as a feeder for their Asia flights. However since ORD has a decent number of nonstop flights it puts DL at a disadvantage because they could only offer ORD - SEA - Asia.
 
ridgid727
Posts: 1080
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:58 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 12:24 pm

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 25):

Yeah, I keep hearing that DL will downsize SLC. That's why they're tripling their summer SLC-Europe capacity next year over what they've had in the past.
Quoting jetlanta (Reply 30):
No it is not. The logical outcome is that SLC/SEA/LAX triangulate the western U.S. and provide Delta with the most comprehensive network in the region. In fact, much of Delta's success in developing LAX and SEA is built on the value that SLC provides. SLC performance has actually improved as LAX and SEA have grown. It is basic multi-hub network dynamics

I wonder if DL losing 13 gates with the new SLC Airport Terminal/Gates will have any bearing on this?

[Edited 2015-10-26 05:26:10]
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:38 pm

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 30):
The logical outcome is that SLC/SEA/LAX triangulate the western U.S. and provide Delta with the most comprehensive network in the region.

How exactly is that combination any more comprehensive than SFO-LAX-DEN triangulation by UA ? UA DEN is far bigger than DL SLC, and UA SFO is bigger than either DL SEA or DL LAX, so I don't see how DL's combination is superior for anyone other than those residing in Pacific Northwest ....
 
icareflies
Posts: 30
Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2007 9:52 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 1:38 pm

I fly to SEA at least once a week and I am a DL fan. I will be so happy if they start ORD-SEA for sure.
I have read all your points above and agree on most but I noticed you are all comparing only Q1 airfare $.
Yes going to SEA is cheap in winter but from ORD I can tell you I have paid up to $900 RT in summer due to the Alaska Cruise season in Seattle.
Also AS might be great but the flights out of ORD are always overbooked. I often wondered why AS was not increasing the route by one more daily flight.
Anyway at the end if I can sign a petition to get DL on ORD-SEA I would.
AF777-300ER and 9W737-900 - Love it! Love it
 
bobnwa
Posts: 4514
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2000 12:10 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:01 pm

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 32):
Except for the part where Revenue Management is projecting a break even for Summer 2016 and the rest of the network generates 20% margins.

Do you know that for a fact or predicting it?
 
jetlanta
Posts: 1640
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2001 2:35 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:04 pm

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 31):
Every flight DL adds east of SEA cannibalizes current service to SLC, MSP, DTW and ATL. On top of that, the flights that they DO add lose money. So now you have money-losing new service and possibly barely profitable flights to their hubs that used to mint money. Much of the DL flying is on high CASM regional partners that can't compete with AS cost-wise. It's a lose-lose for DL in SEA.

The notion that Delta services to their other hubs are "barely profitable" simply isn't true. In fact, Delta outperforms AS from SEA to Delta hubs in local market metrics PLUS has the benefit of vast system contribution. (For example, in 1Q15 DL had a $137 average fare in SEA-LAS versus $124 for AS.) And remember, Delta doesn't even need to match AS in local O&D performance because it has the benefit connecting to a long-haul, high-revenue network.

And, again, the evaluation that Delta regional partner CASM somehow drives losses misses the points that A) RASM is also higher on smaller aircraft, and B) Even inferior performance on some regional routes doesn't necessarily mean losses. (AS performance is to strong that Delta may still be profitable even at a significant disadvantage.)

But all of this continues to miss the point. Delta isn't going anywhere. They have made a strategic commitment to the market. The long-term dynamics favor a carrier with a strong global network, simply because that is where the market is truly growing. Delta will continue to build on its advantages with the largest SEA-based companies because they want the deals that only Delta can offer.

And they will certainly be in ORD at some point. I'm guessing before end of 2016.

All of that said, I don't understand the handwringing of some AS fans. The carrier has proved itself more than capable of competing in this environment. It is extremely well-run and has made strong strategic plays. This clearly isn't a situation where one carrier wins and the other losses. Delta can accomplish its strategic goals even as AS continues to flourish.

The constrained footprint of the SEA airport means there is a limit for growth of all air service in the market. Much like other constrained airports in major markets, a supply/demand imbalance will ensure success over the long-run for the players involved.

Quoting ridgid727 (Reply 40):
I wonder if DL losing 13 gates with the new SLC Airport Terminal/Gates will have any bearing on this?

No. The net of lost gates in this redevelopment comes from the SkyWest EM2/CRJ gates that are simply not needed because the fleet mix has changed. There are a lot of "gates" at SLC that aren't actually "gates" in today's world.
 
Flighty
Posts: 9963
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:13 pm

Steex is right, DL has to add the link to be a credible player in SEA. But that is less pressure than WN UA and AA feel. For me the biggest unknown there is AA. Has the ORD hub seen recent upgrades from. AA that suggest profitability? Ive been been a doubter but willing to hear the case for AA at ORD.
 
sxf24
Posts: 862
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:20 pm

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 44):
The notion that Delta services to their other hubs are "barely profitable" simply isn't true. In fact, Delta outperforms AS from SEA to Delta hubs in local market metrics PLUS has the benefit of vast system contribution. (For example, in 1Q15 DL had a $137 average fare in SEA-LAS versus $124 for AS.) And remember, Delta doesn't even need to match AS in local O&D performance because it has the benefit connecting to a long-haul, high-revenue network.

And, again, the evaluation that Delta regional partner CASM somehow drives losses misses the points that A) RASM is also higher on smaller aircraft, and B) Even inferior performance on some regional routes doesn't necessarily mean losses. (AS performance is to strong that Delta may still be profitable even at a significant disadvantage.)

You trumpet Delta's higher fare in one market as an indication it performs better than AS, yet you subsequently explain Delta's higher fares as a function on smaller aircraft. Delta either generates higher margins in the non-hub markets where it competes with AS or it doesn't. Please clarify.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 44):
All of that said, I don't understand the handwringing of some AS fans. The carrier has proved itself more than capable of competing in this environment. It is extremely well-run and has made strong strategic plays. This clearly isn't a situation where one carrier wins and the other losses. Delta can accomplish its strategic goals even as AS continues to flourish.

The handwringing is that most people equate Delta's success with Alaska's failure. I see very few saying Delta can come in and find a niche in Seattle. Rather, it's posters saying Delta is going to grow, steal corporate traffic, and dominate Seattle.

The reality is that Delta has taken traffic from other carriers besides AS. It's opportunities to grow further are limited by a lack of gates and the poor operational performance of its connection carriers. Also, none of the Fortune 500 companies in Seattle have exclusive travel contracts, so Delta and Alaska can only steal traffic from each other by providing lower cost flights or superior schedules.
 
ridgid727
Posts: 1080
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:58 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:21 pm

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 44):

The notion that Delta services to their other hubs are "barely profitable" simply isn't true. In fact, Delta outperforms AS from SEA to Delta hubs in local market metrics PLUS has the benefit of vast system contribution. (For example, in 1Q15 DL had a $137 average fare in SEA-LAS versus $124 for AS.) And remember, Delta doesn't even need to match AS in local O&D performance because it has the benefit connecting to a long-haul, high-revenue network.

whatever you say about your hometown Lady, but it still remains DL is a Non-Revers Mecca in SEA. If you can't get on AS, ;DL will surely have a seat.
 
jetlanta
Posts: 1640
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2001 2:35 am

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:22 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 41):
How exactly is that combination any more comprehensive than SFO-LAX-DEN triangulation by UA ? UA DEN is far bigger than DL SLC, and UA SFO is bigger than either DL SEA or DL LAX, so I don't see how DL's combination is superior for anyone other than those residing in Pacific Northwest ....

OK, I might give you that. UA will probably maintain a bit of long-term advantage but Delta will be nipping at its heals. The point I was really trying to make is that the three hubs complement each other over the long-run. LAX and SEA are going to be growth-limited in the future. SLC will not be. As markets grow, traffic will necessary have to flow over different routings, and SLC is well-positioned to handle a lot of that. Plus the local market, though somewhat small today, is very strong and growing rapidly. And Delta enjoys fortress hub status there.

Enilria's idea that SLC is doomed is silly.
 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: Why Doesn't Delta Fly SEA To ORD Nonstop?

Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:43 pm

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 48):

OK, I might give you that. UA will probably maintain a bit of long-term advantage but Delta will be nipping at its heals. The point I was really trying to make is that the three hubs complement each other over the long-run. LAX and SEA are going to be growth-limited in the future. SLC will not be. As markets grow, traffic will necessary have to flow over different routings, and SLC is well-positioned to handle a lot of that. Plus the local market, though somewhat small today, is very strong and growing rapidly. And Delta enjoys fortress hub status there.

Enilria's idea that SLC is doomed is silly.

I wouldn't say it's doomed, but it would be in a more stale phase (the way AA has treated ORD for years)

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos