Rara
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:39 am

Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 49):
Is it possible that during the ascent to cruising, they were a bit too overloaded to be going that high that quickly?

No. That's not the reason.
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pugman211
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:41 am

Quoting dc863 (Reply 50):

Me too. But what could cause a climb and then rapid decent without change of speed??

Do we know how old this a/c was either? Previous incident history etc?

Either way, R.I.P to those on board.
 
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hilram
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:44 am

Quoting CO764 (Reply 24):

Not to venture into unfounded speculation this early on, but I can't help but think of the Air Asia accident last year.

Looks like high altitude rapid climbe - then stall - seems to be a recurring problem for the A320-series. I hope they can remediate this in software.
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directorguy
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:45 am

Woke up to this news this morning.
RIP to those who perished.
Really hope this isn't Islamic State-related, as this would have disastrous consequences. Just look at the number of airlines overflying Sinai.
That being said, no indication that Sinai airspace has been closed.
 
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Ty134A
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:46 am

Quoting stealthz (Reply 48):
My interpretation of the FR plot and accompanying data table is that the plane never got past 33,500' then a rapid deceleration & descent,

from 404kts to 184kts decending might seem like a stall or just an incorrect reading...
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AF1624
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:46 am

Quoting Sevensixtyseven (Reply 49):
they were a bit too overloaded to be going that high that quickly?

That's not really how it works.

On a "normal" climb (think day-to-day airline operations), the autopilot would pitch to match a certain speed with the engines on climb power, a speed which would be determined by a cost index.

The pitch of the aircraft itself (as a fixed value) would fluctuate to maintain that commanded speed, therefore always making it safe. If it was overloaded it would just... stop climbing, and then the altitude would just sort of vary to maintain that given speed with a given thrust setting.

Only an abnormal occurence could explain such a high vertical speed at these altitudes.

What makes it stranger is that even if it was a manual intervention, like pulling hard aft on the stick, it would bring the A321 to a minimum speed before the alpha-floor protection kicked-in. Then the alpha floor protection would command take-off/go-around thrust and limit the aircraft's pitch to something sustainable, preventing stall speed. That is, of course, assuming fly-by-wire was in the correct law to enable all of this in the first place.

Pretty good demonstration of the above here: http://youtu.be/IKBABNL-DDM?t=4m7s
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:49 am

According to the State-run Russian news agencies – which refers to the sources at the airports of Sharm el-Sheikh and Cairo, have the pilot reported technical error on the engines and asked to change route to land in Cairo.

http://www.dn.se/nyheter/varlden/rys...fran-egypten-har-kraschat-i-sinai/ (swedish only)
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jpetekyxmd80
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:51 am

That's really strange if true. What could be so catastrophic with an engine for this to happen so quickly? Thrust reverser deployment or something?
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dc863
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:52 am

Quoting pugman211 (Reply 52):
But what could cause a climb and then rapid decent without change of speed??

Theoretically a bomb could. TWA lost a 707 in '74 over the Aegean from a bomb. A Pan Am flight witnessed the whole thing. They reported the 707 appeared to pitch up and climb followed by a dive.

The terrorist cause is just speculation but considering the plane was Russian operating a flight in the region and was full of Russians it's that much of a stretch to think some jihadist group planted a device aboard.
 
uta999
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:59 am

This looks like a bombing, with the plane climbing, stalling while breaking up in flight.
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Qatara340
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:02 am

Egyptian authorities seem to say in Twitter that they could hear voices from trapped passengers.
لا اله الا الله محمد رسول الله
 
dc863
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:04 am

Quoting Qatara340 (Reply 61):
Egyptian authorities seem to say in Twitter that they could hear voices from trapped passengers

It would truly be a miracle if this is true.
 
peterjohns
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:07 am

If the Pilot issued a call wanting to land due to a malfunction- my guess would be to rule out any bomb etc.

Even the fact that the crew was on the radio after an occurance says a lot.
 
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pvjin
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:08 am

Quoting dc863 (Reply 62):

If that was true the pilots must have got the aircraft under some kind of control at some point. But until confirmed I assume this thing fell into the desert like a rock.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
eielef
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:09 am

Having following this tragedy for Russia today, some russian sources (Vedomosti) said the pilots made emergency contacts to Cairo requesting inmediate landing in the closest airport. The place of the crash, in the Sinai Peninsula, is of hard access, and because of it, its taking long time to emergency teams to arrive to the scene. Also Egyptian PM is going there now.
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Ty134A
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:14 am

Quoting pvjin (Reply 64):
If that was true the pilots must have got the aircraft under some kind of control at some point. But until confirmed I assume this thing fell into the desert like a rock.

hope not, but also have a feeling its gonna be this way.

in russian tv there are reports of radio contact between the flight crew and the ground.

i highly doubt it was shot down from that altitude from the is. that would mean a similar scenario as in the donbass, meaning a highly sophisticated ground to air system. and since nobody bombed the is on the sinai, there is no need to get this system, which would only fulfill one purpose there: shooting down civil airliners for terrorist reasons.

but again, its easier and cheaper to plant a bomb on a plane rather than buying a ground to air unit of that size...
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EMAman
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:21 am

My first impression was a terrorist attack for all of the reasons stated above, however, the small bit sof news now coming in indicate more of a technical or engine related issue.
 
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pvjin
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:25 am

Now also Finnish news site Iltalehti is reporting that according to Egyptian officials some passengers have been found alive and that the plane is split in two. I still remain skeptical until further confirmation and pictures.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
dubaiamman243
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:28 am

According to the Egyptain authorities, there are survivors. They were heard calling for help under the wreckage.
The next airline CEO :crossfingers:
 
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Francoflier
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:31 am

Based on the initial trajectory report, I fail to see how a technical failure, short of a wing falling off, would trigger such a sudden and rapid descent.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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Ty134A
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:38 am

Quoting Dubaiamman243 (Reply 69):
According to the Egyptain authorities, there are survivors. They were heard calling for help under the wreckage.

that would be the best news imaginable, but i highly doubt it. hopefully it was some sort of crash landing, hopefully!!!
flown on: TU3,TU5,T20,IL8,IL6,ILW,IL9,I14,YK4,YK2,AN2,AN4,A26,A28,A38,A40,A81,SU9,L4T,L11,D1C,M11,M80,M87,
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flyingturtle
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:39 am

I hope for survivors, and I wish the relatives of the passengers much strength of faith in these dark times.


Now, we are curious minds, and we like sensible speculation. My guess is something like AF447 given the flight profile. But I have a hard time including a crash with survivors into a AF447-like scenario. An emergency landing with a damaged plane seems probable, at least to me.

If it was a senseless rehash of AF447, ignoring procedures that have been written to save lives, many people will get seriously angry...


David

[Edited 2015-10-31 03:40:44]
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
Summa767
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:41 am

In the BBC live updates ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-34687309 ) 10.15 am
mentions an officer telling Reuters that many bodies were inside the fuselage.
Also that the aircraft broke up in 2:
"The plane split into two, a small part on the tail end that burned and a larger part that crashed into a rock. We have extracted at least 100 bodies and the rest are still inside.""

No inflight break up if this is true. It would also suggest moderation of the original altitude loss rate and not a totally uncontrolled dive impact.
 
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Ty134A
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:41 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 72):
An emergency landing with a damaged plane seems probable, at least to me.

if so, we will soon know the cause for the crash!
flown on: TU3,TU5,T20,IL8,IL6,ILW,IL9,I14,YK4,YK2,AN2,AN4,A26,A28,A38,A40,A81,SU9,L4T,L11,D1C,M11,M80,M87,
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vfw614
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:51 am

I suppose that all these news agency reports about survivors are simply quoting a single, unconfirmed source, so we should not get carried away.
 
B747forever
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:54 am

Quoting vfw614 (Reply 75):

I suppose that all these news agency reports about survivors are simply quoting a single, unconfirmed source, so we should not get carried away.


  
Since the start the report of this accident has been confusing.
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RayChuang
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:58 am

Recovering the CVR and FDR is very important because it will give preliminary details of the final 30 minutes of the flight.
 
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Francoflier
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:02 am

Quoting Ty134A (Reply 74):
if so, we will soon know the cause for the crash!

I wonder...

The crash happened to a Russian airliner on Egyptian soil, meaning the investigative authorities of both countries will be involved. It remains to see how much information they will be willing to give Airbus (and the BEA, if it becomes involved), and how much of what they know they will wish to share to the public...

We may or may never know what happened.
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UKtoOzFlyer
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:11 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 77):
Recovering the CVR and FDR is very important because it will give preliminary details of the final 30 minutes of the flight.

The BBC is reporting the black box has already been located.
 
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pvjin
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:11 am

Quoting francoflier (Reply 78):
The crash happened to a Russian airliner on Egyptian soil, meaning the investigative authorities of both countries will be involved. It remains to see how much information they will be willing to give Airbus (and the BEA, if it becomes involved), and how much of what they know they will wish to share to the public...

Assuming there's nothing fishy behind this accident why would either side try to hide the evidence?
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
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blooBirdie
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:12 am

Quoting Qatara340 (Reply 61):
Egyptian authorities seem to say in Twitter that they could hear voices from trapped passengers.

I suspect the "voices" might be from consumer electronics.
 
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Btblue
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:27 am

Quoting Qatara340 (Reply 61):

RT have just reported (TV News) that the aircraft is completely destroyed and that 100 bodies have been recovered.

Certainly this seems to be likely given the chaotic changes occurring prior to going off radar. Tragic, RIP.
 
andrej
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:28 am

What a horrible news. RIP.  
 
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JetBuddy
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:33 am

I have no idea what happened, but I see some people claiming there aren't many sophisticated anti-air systems in the Sinai peninsula. That's just plain wrong. There's a lot of Russian made anti air systems in that area. And the region is very unstable, and the Egyptian military has struggled to maintain control over it.

I'm not saying the airliner was shot down, although I find it suspicious that the airplane had broken apart and ending up in seperate places. It's also very rare that an airliner suddenly finds itself in that much trouble at cruise altitude. I wouldn't rule out a bomb.

Hopefully they'll locate survivors that aren't that badly hurt.
 
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pvjin
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:43 am

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 84):
I have no idea what happened, but I see some people claiming there aren't many sophisticated anti-air systems in the Sinai peninsula. That's just plain wrong. There's a lot of Russian made anti air systems in that area. And the region is very unstable, and the Egyptian military has struggled to maintain control over it.

Sure, but only something like BUK could have shot down this aircraft, and those definitely shouldn't be available to rebels in the area.

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 84):
It's also very rare that an airliner suddenly finds itself in that much trouble at cruise altitude. I wouldn't rule out a bomb.

Well, if we don't count MH17 last year we had three cases like that; Air Asia Indonesia, Air Algerie / Swiftair, MH370.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
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Btblue
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:50 am

100 bodies taken from the wreckage, aircraft split into two. Most passengers still belted up and in their seats.

Quote: "I now see a tragic scene. A lot of dead on the ground and many died whilst strapped to their seats," the officer said. "The plane split into two, a small part on the tail end that burned and a larger part that crashed into a rock. We have extracted at least 100 bodies and the rest are still inside."

Source:

www.rt.com/news/320225-plane-crash-russian-egypt/

The 'small part on the tail end' - I wonder if this is significant as to why the aircraft crashed given the rudder is located there and given the sudden lurching in altitude.

[Edited 2015-10-31 04:51:15]
 
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Ty134A
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:00 pm

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 84):
I have no idea what happened, but I see some people claiming there aren't many sophisticated anti-air systems in the Sinai peninsula. That's just plain wrong. There's a lot of Russian made anti air systems in that area. And the region is very unstable, and the Egyptian military has struggled to maintain control over it.

I'm not saying the airliner was shot down, although I find it suspicious that the airplane had broken apart and ending up in seperate places. It's also very rare that an airliner suddenly finds itself in that much trouble at cruise altitude. I wouldn't rule out a bomb.

correct! but as far as i know there are no military forces bombing "terrorists" (or whom ever) on the sinai, hence no need for a large ground to air missile system, which is hard to get and hard to hide there. and for the purpose of downing an airliner it is easier to infiltrate ground staff at the airports rather than organizing a SAM.

as to the breaking apart, might be that it indeed was a crash landing and therefore one piece was torn off. if scattered over a large area due to mid air disintegration, chances are high that it was NOT due to the acft destroying itself.
flown on: TU3,TU5,T20,IL8,IL6,ILW,IL9,I14,YK4,YK2,AN2,AN4,A26,A28,A38,A40,A81,SU9,L4T,L11,D1C,M11,M80,M87,
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777Jet
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:01 pm

Maybe a faulty repair that happened in the past?

RIP to those on board...
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by738
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:06 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 88):

after a reported previous tailstrike some years ago
 
thegoldenargosy
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:10 pm

According to Aviation Safety Network, this aircraft suffered a tail strike in 2001 while operating for MEA.
 
Viper911
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:11 pm

Quoting by738 (Reply 89):
after a reported previous tailstrike some years ago

One of the comments on Avherald states, that problems with the engines were reported few days ago on this aircraft.

Viper911
 
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Btblue
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:14 pm

Quoting by738 (Reply 89):

16 November 2001 F-OHMP MEA Tailstrike accident on landing Cairo, Egypt

That's quite some time ago.
 
Ruscoe
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:14 pm

From what I have read here; is it possible a fire in the APU damaged the Horizontal stabiliser control mechanism?

Ruscoe
 
FlexJetOKC
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:14 pm

AP just broke that it has been confirmed no survivors on board.
Above the planet on a wing and a prayer, my grubby halo, a vapour trail in the empty air...
 
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777Jet
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:20 pm

Quoting btblue (Reply 92):

Some of the worst accidents resulting from repairs to tail strikes happen quite some time later...
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pvjin
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:24 pm

According to Finnish news website Iltalehti the Egyptian officials have now confirmed there are no survivors, in contrary to earlier reports.

RIP
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
bunumuring
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:24 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 95):
Some of the worst accidents resulting from repairs to tail strikes happen quite some time later...

I agree. Particularly if bad weather in the area produced turbulence and maybe other factors such as an engine problem put additional stress on the airframe???

Cheers
Bunumuring.
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
PC12Fan
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:26 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 95):

The worst single aircraft accident in fact . . . .
Just when I think you've said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talkin'!
 
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777Jet
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:27 pm

China Airlines 611 accident happened 22 years after the faulty repair to the tail strike. JAL123 accident happened 7 years after the faulty repair to the tail strike.
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
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Btblue
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Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt - Part 1

Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:29 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 95):
Quoting btblue (Reply 92):

Some of the worst accidents resulting from repairs to tail strikes happen quite some time later...

Yep, true. China Airlines 747 comes to mind. I don't know the details of the repair to this particular aircraft. With the reports stating the pilot radioed problems with the engines it was sudden, whatever the cause.

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Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos