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strfyr51
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:25 pm

looking at the wave of incidences? Were it a sabotage? Look at the THS actuator. With an airbus as long as an A321 the stabilizer Trim is of paramount importance if the THS actuator failed on an A319 or A320 and locked in position there might have a 30% chance of landing safely but with the Sheer length of the A321? The THS actuator is controlling the Fulcrum point and would be the same for the B757. Were it to fail or be sabotaged the stall would be catastrophic and uncontrollable as there would never be enough elevator to tip the balance back to the Pilot's control. In all the years I've been working the A320 Series I've replaced THS actuators for Not Working But I've never seen one actually Fail..
 
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pvjin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:29 pm

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 52):
The BBC now says the Egyptians are denying that.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34689870

So basically then there's no evidence whatsoever of a mechanical failure happening either. Could have as well been a bomb, a pilot suicide, who knows. If FR24 data is correct and sudden climb happened both theories could very well explain it - a bomb that damaged aircraft's controls, or a struggle in the cockpit between crew members.

[Edited 2015-10-31 14:32:58]
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:34 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 15):
Would assume they will be taken to Moscow for analysis

Why? Egypt has the lead on the investigation and the CVR/FDRs fitted by Airbus are not supplied by Russian manufacturers.

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 7):
Tail-mounted engines could indeed damage hydraulic lines in the fuselage when exploding

Since when do A321s have tail-mounted engines?
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
diverted
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:36 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 55):
Quoting alfa164 (Reply 7):Tail-mounted engines could indeed damage hydraulic lines in the fuselage when exploding
Since when do A321s have tail-mounted engines?










They don't. But when read in context, the quoted text makes sense.

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 7):
Quoting OV735 (Reply 190):It's hard to imagine any kind of wing-mounted engine failure, contained or not, resulting in an inflight breakup (which the reports of a scattered wreckage seem to indicate). Tail-mounted engines could indeed damage hydraulic lines in the fuselage when exploding - UA232 and a number of Tu-154 and Il-62 crashes come to mind - and even in those cases the aircraft stayed intact until surface impact. Structural failure of the fuselage seems to be more likely in this case, either from fatigue/mishandled pressure vessel repairs or an external factor.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:38 pm

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 52):
The BBC now says the Egyptians are denying that.

In these instances where we hear reports early on of emergency calls to ATC, plane has landed safely in XYZ, reports of engine malfunction, etc etc, I would LOVE to be able to trace back to the very beginning where such rumors started. I know it's meaningless, and I'm not looking to blame anyone, but it really intrigues me where and how these things start.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:40 pm

Some pictures I had not seen before in the thread:

Quoting pvjin (Reply 54):
So basically then there's no evidence whatsoever of a mechanical failure happening either. Could have as well been a bomb, a pilot suicide, who knows. If FR24 data is correct and sudden climb happened both theories could very well explain it - a bomb that damaged aircraft's controls, or a struggle in the cockpit between crew members.

  
 
WPIAeroGuy
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:41 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 57):
In these instances where we hear reports early on of emergency calls to ATC, plane has landed safely in XYZ, reports of engine malfunction, etc etc, I would LOVE to be able to trace back to the very beginning where such rumors started. I know it's meaningless, and I'm not looking to blame anyone, but it really intrigues me where and how these things start.

Agreed. It's like people will report anything as long as someone else says it.
-WPIAeroGuy
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:44 pm

Quoting HALtheAI (Reply 51):
Not necessarily. Aren't they stored in the tail?

Exactly. The moment the recorders lose power, they are useless. And anyway, if the CVR records any kind of explosion, it must be corroborated by wreckage examination.

CVR/FDR is not the panacea to solve every aviation disaster. In a CFIT accident, we can reconstruct with marvellous detail the last minutes of a flight... but if the pilots don't talk, we don't get any insight into their minds.

And there have been ambiguities in deciding what an expression (or a sound) on the CVR means, although the methods to reconstruct the facts get better and better each year. They can now find out, with some certainty, which buttons were pressed by analyzing the sound. Or they can analyze the sound spectrum and decide if a loud bang is actually a bomb or not.


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
2175301
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:55 pm

CVR/FDR rarely provide the evidence of what did cause a crash; and have usually been most useful in eliminating things which did not cause the crash. When you lack an immediate known cause, elimination of many things that did not cause the crash allow investigators to focus on the remaining relatively few things which may have caused the crash. Thus, in the vast majority of cases actually allowing a determination of what did cause the crash as it is not reasonably possible to fully investigate every possibility.

Have a great day,
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:55 pm

Quoting eielef (Reply 50):
First: all we know was that about 22 mins after taking off, on a full flight, the captain make an emergency calling to land because of (apparently) engine failure.

This is now disputed by the Egyptians, which is a bit worrying, as I think that single fact was what diverted attention away from a terrorist attack.

I would say that the wreckage photos as shown so far do not tell us a lot, it would be good to get an aerial shot of the wreckage field, that might be more useful.


If anyone has noticed, it is the anniversary of MS990 today, too!! so not a good day in Egyptian aviation history.
 
cylw
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:00 pm

October 31 is historically a bad day for crashes.

Western 2605 in Mexico City 1979
American Eagle 4184 in Roselawn 1994
Egyptair 990 off Long Island 1999

and now this one.

My thoughts are with the families.
 
airplanedaj
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:09 pm

Quoting mham001 (Reply 48):
What about catastrophic engine failure destroying a wing?

Not likely. Remember QF32 had a uncontained engine failure on an A380 and only had small holes in the wing that allowed fuel to seep out. More drag and less lift, yes, but hardly something the airplane couldn't fly on. Also the DHL Airbus that got hit by a SAM over Baghdad back in '03 had large portions of the wing missing/on fire and was still able to fly.
 
Alias1024
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:10 pm

Quoting cylw (Reply 63):

Also Singapore 006 at TPE back in 2000
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
diverted
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:13 pm

Seems to be my looking at the wreckage that it ended up coming down in a level/nose up attitude as opposed to a dive.(Hard to see from the pics where the tail is in reference to the rest of the fuselage, but it seems possible it could have come down in one piece, or a mid air breakup)
Looking at the cockpit, if it had come down in a dive, the nose would have been destroyed, not flattened. Also, looking at the tail and the way the stab is fractured seems to indicate it came down on the belly. Whether or not they came down in one piece is hard to say. Also, looking at the tail, it appears the rudder has been removed pretty violently. Impossible at this point to say whether it could have been a cause, or whether it would have been torn off by aerodynamic forces during the intense descent.

Anyways, far too early to jump to conclusions, but the wreckage looks a little strange
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:16 pm

Quoting diverted (Reply 66):
Anyways, far too early to jump to conclusions, but the wreckage looks a little strange

what do you mean strange?
 
VX321
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:18 pm

First and foremost: R.I.P. to the victims and I feel for their friends and families.
From the photos and the FR24 data that has been shown, there are several possible theories that could have happened. Such theories can be broken into two areas: catastrophic failure of some kind or terrorism. If it was terrorism and that this plane was targeted, it doesn't look like a missile hit it. Egypt vs. terrorists are fighting a ground war,nothing in the air, so no missiles should be flying around. If we look to MH!7 for answers,then we take out ground to air item(RPG,MANPAD,missile...etc.) because the debris field would consist of smaller pieces.That leads to the bomb theory. However, there wouldn't really be large chucks of the plane on the ground even if were a bomb because like missiles, they cause the debris field to have smaller pieces and there would a more sudden drop in the FR24 data. The only exception to the bomb theory that would somewhat make sense if bomb partially malfunctioned or was designed to cause structural failure as opposed to blowing the whole plane up. That said,there have been reports that say that the pilot requested a route change and had previously mentioned engine trouble. The fact that reports that this plane may have had some issues before points the theory; catastrophic failure in some way. After looking at the photos,the tail at first glance looks to have had pieces of it(i.e. the rudder) ripped off by a significant force(the rapid decent). Such theory falls in line with the rapid decent and disappearance off radar so suddenly. From photos and reports it appears that the plane was split in two pieces (predominantly) and that bodies were still in their seats. Also, it seems to me that the center of the aircraft is where the initial event occurred as there are pictures only of the tail and the cockpit,but none of the center fuselage. The wing photo in part 1 indicates that it was internal by how the wing root remnants look. As for pilot suicide, why on earth would two Russian pilots want to down their own plane?! If the pilot or copilot were trying to make a point to Putin about intervening in Syria, I would think they would do something differently as opposed to taking their aircraft down in Egypt. From the FR24, the initial event looks like it was sudden,unexpected. Therefore, a blockage of fuel or hydraulic fluid for some reason(failed repairs, bad fuel,etc.) could have built up enough pressure to cause a massive structural failure that would have the pilots struggling to control the aircraft if they were still conscious or alive. The rapid movement of the aircraft in its final moments indicates a loss of control and a stall. Therefore,I don't believe it was terrorism. But I could be wrong.
My list of possible answers from greatest to least likely-hood;
fuel blockage causing structural failure
hydraulic blockage causing structural failure
bomb designed to cause structural failure that would in turn destroy the plane.
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:21 pm

Quoting VX321 (Reply 68):
However, there wouldn't really be large chucks of the plane on the ground even if were a bomb because like missiles, they cause the debris field to have smaller pieces

Not necessarily, would depend on the power of the blast and the actual final modes of failure and forces during the decent - some planes still land safely after a bomb explosion - you should always remember the iconic picture of lockerbie with the nose lying flat on the ground. There can often be big pieces.
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:22 pm

Quoting VX321 (Reply 68):
My list of possible answers from greatest to least likely-hood;
fuel blockage causing structural failure
hydraulic blockage causing structural failure
bomb designed to cause structural failure that would in turn destroy the plane.

This is a bit of a bizarre thing to write. The bomb is a possibility, but the others arent - yet lots of other possibilities that arent listed!!
 
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Aeroflot777
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:25 pm

Here's some more insensitive journalism for you, where reporters jump at the opportunity to look up social media accounts of those who perished after the names of the passengers are released. So incredibly heartbreaking to see many of these people posting notes about embarking on vacation, or worse yet photos taken hours or days prior to their departure home from that exact vacation.

http://www.rbc.ru/society/31/10/2015/5634fe8d9a79472ace9b779d
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:25 pm

Quoting VX321 (Reply 68):
As for pilot suicide, why on earth would two Russian pilots want to down their own plane?! If the pilot or copilot were trying to make a point to Putin about intervening in Syria, I would think they would do something differently as opposed to taking their aircraft down in Egypt.

I do not put pilot suicide forward as a lead theory necessarily, but it is wholly possible, and the Germanwings incident should tell you that it does not have to be politically motivated...
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:39 pm

Quoting cylw (Reply 63):
October 31 is historically a bad day for crashes.

Afraid so, MS990 and SQ006 were on successive years too.
 
Deanger
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:41 pm

Strange Deja-Vu looking at those pictures - reminded me of the Pam Am 103 photos. God Speed to all those lost souls and the people who love them.

Edited to add: Because of the basic coloring of the plane and the one famous photo of the 103's cockpit on its side. Not because I have any opinion on this terrible accident. The truth will be revealed.

[Edited 2015-10-31 15:44:00]
 
PanAm1971
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:45 pm

The crash site is uncomfortably close to the Egyptian/Israeli border. Is there any chance this could have been an accidental downing by an air defense missile? Are these any similarities between this incident and MH17?
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:47 pm

Quoting airplanedaj (Reply 64):
Quoting mham001 (Reply 48):
What about catastrophic engine failure destroying a wing?

Not likely. Remember QF32 had a uncontained engine failure on an A380 and only had small holes in the wing that allowed fuel to seep out. More drag and less lift, yes, but hardly something the airplane couldn't fly on. Also the DHL Airbus that got hit by a SAM over Baghdad back in '03 had large portions of the wing missing/on fire and was still able to fly.

I don't think we can discount anything at this point, particularly something as sudden and catastrophic in force as an uncontained engine failure. Certainly there have been many happy endings in such events, but there have also been close calls and there have been crashes. I do wonder, though, if such an event would happen so fast and furious that the cockpit crew would not have/take the time to radio a mayday?

Quoting EMAman (Reply 67):
Quoting diverted (Reply 66):
Anyways, far too early to jump to conclusions, but the wreckage looks a little strange

what do you mean strange?

I think it might just be the desert setting and the way the debris is sitting.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
AIRWALK
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:49 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 76):
I do wonder, though, if such an event would happen so fast and furious that the cockpit crew would not have/take the time to radio a mayday?

Aviate, Navigate, Communicate
I'm sure this thread will take off soon
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:53 pm

Quoting AIRWALK (Reply 77):
Aviate, Navigate, Communicate

True. Whatever it was, it seems like it was pretty sudden regardless. Probably very little time to communicate even if they wanted to.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
galleypower
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:54 pm

When I look at the pictures I can see the following...
The wing appears to be upside down. Same with the cockpit, it is smashed from the top while the bottom is fairly intact. This could mean it hit the ground upside down.

The wingsection appears to be fairly intact, so no sliding over the bottom. This supports the idea ofit has fallen from the sky.

The tail section gives me headaches. One pic you see the h/stabilizers, pretty charred and nothing else around it. How did it get seperated? The v/stabilzer with the doors are not burned at all and look like they hit the ground in the right position.

Any ideas?
 
Deanger
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:55 pm

So, so far...

They've said:

1) It crashed. 2) It's fine. 3) It crashed.

1) No survivors. 2) Some survivors. 3) No survivors

1) Distress call from cockpit. 2) Engine issues specifically mentioned from cockpit. 3) No radio call at all.

And now I read the following headline:

The plane simply vanished from the radar but there is no evidence or terrorism and it's most likely mechanical. (seems like a big leap there, but who am I to say)

So, by my calculations, we'll hear bomb by morning, then who knows what the final answer will be.

It's like whack-a-mole with these news reports.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 10:57 pm

Quoting galleypower (Reply 79):

My observations:

Anyway, the tail section was compacted on impact with terra firma, you see the buckling clearly. But the tail lies on the ground with the vertical stabilizer looking upwards.

The nose section (recognizable by the red labeled static port, and the NLG protruding from the wreck) lies on the side, and isn't as compacted much.

Then we have pictures of charred wings, and with the cabin destroyed, probably by the post-impact fire. From the images I gather that the plane broke up at two places, before and aft the wing - while still in the air. This is puzzling...

Are you sure the wings are upside down?


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
shortstack81
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:02 pm

some of the pictures floating around appear to be from the crash in algeria in 2014, so please be aware.
 
maxpower1954
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:17 pm

Quoting cylw (Reply 63):
October 31 is historically a bad day for crashes.

Western 2605 in Mexico City 1979
American Eagle 4184 in Roselawn 1994
Egyptair 990 off Long Island 1999

and now this one.

Also Singapore 006 at TPE back in 2000

You can add Piedmont 349 in 1959 - PI's first fatal accident.
 
guppyflyer
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:23 pm

Quoting EMAman (Reply 67):
what do you mean strange?

From a professional pilot's perspective, it appears to me that it wasn't a high energy impact. The entire wing structure appears intact but destroyed by what I assume was a post-crash fire. The cockpit section appears as it were dropped vertically from height, the tail section shows similar damage. Compare this to MH17 (shot down/inflight break-up) and TM470 (pilot suicide). In both of these cases the impact forces reduced the structure to mostly small pieces. In addition, the photos don't show any signs of forward motion, no debris field/trail, no scarring etc. I wouldn't even attempt to guess at the cause, but at first glance it appears to me the aircraft struck the ground in a fairly flat angle with little forward airspeed. That to me is a bit strange.
 
liquidair
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:37 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 2):

If that chart is right it looks like a cockpit struggle... Either between pilots or between man and machine.

Either way, I'd have expected the ads-b to remain transmitting until ground contact, unless something really dire happened, or it was switched off.

Just out of curiosity- not saying this happened but I just wondered- what would happen if speed brakes are deployed, then TOGA at the same time?
trying to stop my gaseous viscosity go liquid
 
diverted
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:42 pm

Quoting EMAman (Reply 67):
Quoting diverted (Reply 66):Anyways, far too early to jump to conclusions, but the wreckage looks a little strange

what do you mean strange?

I'm not going to be the one to suggest any theories, but it just seems strange for the plane to lose that much altitude, and then seemingly recover to a more or less wings level state before impact. Now, of course that's my opinion based on what I can tell from the pics. From initial reports I was expecting a debris field more like the germanwings crash. High energy state, nose down impact.

I'm curious to see what the facts show.

EDIT: Taking a better look at the photos, it looks like the cockpit section landed inverted, which would also make sense as it looks like the wing is inverted in the photos I've seen.

The tail seems to have landed relatively upright, whether it broke off on impact and tumbled into that location, or separated before impact and landed that way, who knows

[Edited 2015-10-31 17:03:52]
 
trnswrld
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:55 pm

I agree with what others have said. You would think a crash from thirty some thousand feet and the crash site would be nothing more than small fragments of unrecognizable airplane. This is very different! It appears the aircraft pancaked flat into the ground which is very evident of the almost intact wings and tail section with bottom half flattened. Very interesting. RIP to the people onboard.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:59 pm

Another similarity to accidents like China Airlines 611 and JAL123, in addition to the long time frame between the tail strike repairs and the accidents, is the flight duration before the start of the accident which was 23 minutes in this instance. IIRC China 611 was 20 minutes and 13 minutes for JAL123 with JAL123 struggling around for some time...

[Edited 2015-10-31 17:08:56]
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
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Cyow
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 12:00 am

The Telegraph reported these two points, not sure if its been discussed yet in the forum --

1.) "Three military experts said Isil in Sinai does not have surface-to-air missiles capable of hitting a plane at high altitude. But they could not exclude the possibility of a bomb on board or a surface-to-air missile strike if the aircraft had been descending to make an emergency landing."

2.) "Last summer the Federal Aviation Administration in Washington issued a safety warning, known as a Notice to Airmen, saying airlines should not fly below 26,000 feet when passing over the north of the Sinai peninsula. It advised “extreme caution during flight operations due to ongoing violence, unrest security operations and the risk to safety from small arms, rocket propelled grenades, mortars, anti-aircraft fire and shoulder fired, man portable air defence systems"."

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/e...4-people-on-board-latest-news.html

-- How likely could it be that actors on the ground targeted this plan when it was making a decent for an emergency landing? And, based on the wreckage observed on the ground thus far, how different/similar does the wreckage look versus the MH 17 wreckage (supposing this aircraft was downed by a smaller MANPAD, and MH 17 the larger Buk missile.

-- Also, do we know how stringent the security procedures are at SSH. Does the airport use millimeter wave scanners for example?

Hoping the families can have answers soon to this very tragic incident.

[Edited 2015-10-31 17:09:47]
"Broadsword calling Danny Boy"
 
diverted
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 12:06 am

Yeah, I definitely have to say it looks inverted to me.
Here's the nose of an A320 with the radome up
http://i1210.photobucket.com/albums/cc416/intelmani5/United%20Hanger/IMG_3089.jpg
in comparison to


The tail standing more or less upright seems strange though. It looks like it landed pretty hard in the spot it's in, judging from the buckling of the fuselage. However the front of the aircraft hit flat, inverted...strange

[Edited 2015-10-31 17:07:58]

[Edited 2015-10-31 17:08:28]
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 12:08 am

We cannot dismiss the possibility it was hit by a 9K33 Osa (NATO designation SA-8 Gecko) mobile SAM system. Remember, many 9K33 mobile SAM systems were sold to Arab client states during the 1970's and 1980's, and given that the maximum intercept height of this mobile SAM system is 12,000 meters (39,000 feet), we cannot completely discount ISIL militants had access to a 9K33 mobile SAM system and shot down this plane.
 
trnswrld
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 12:23 am

Man, this is weird. So as user diverted stated above, the wings are laid flat upside down, and the nose section looks to have also impacted flat but upside down. The tail section looks like it landed flat, but right side up.
 
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GlenP
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 12:27 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 88):
We cannot dismiss the possibility it was hit by a 9K33 Osa (NATO designation SA-8 Gecko) mobile SAM system. Remember, many 9K33 mobile SAM systems were sold to Arab client states during the 1970's and 1980's, and given that the maximum intercept height of this mobile SAM system is 12,000 meters (39,000 feet), we cannot completely discount ISIL militants had access to a 9K33 mobile SAM system and shot down this plane.
Quoting RayChuang (Reply 88):
We cannot dismiss the possibility it was hit by a 9K33 Osa (NATO designation SA-8 Gecko) mobile SAM system. Remember, many 9K33 mobile SAM systems were sold to Arab client states during the 1970's and 1980's, and given that the maximum intercept height of this mobile SAM system is 12,000 meters (39,000 feet), we cannot completely discount ISIL militants had access to a 9K33 mobile SAM system and shot down this plane.

But there is no indication that Ansar Beit al Maqdis, as the militant group in North Sinai called itself before swearing allegiance to ISIS, has access to such missile systems.

The only, even remote chance of them acquiring them,; as they'd have to be shipped through Israel or Jordan, neither of which are hotbeds of ISIS activity, would be from the Egyptian Army, & there is no indication that any such systems have disappeared from their arsenal. One would expect that it they were to have acquired such weaponry, they would be more likely to have used them to have used them to score a "victory" over the Egyptian armed forces, who have been prosecuting a campaign against the Sinai militants for several years.

It should also be remembered that the SA-8 isn't a small system, requiring a dedicated vehicle to move it around
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
F9Animal
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 12:29 am

Those poor souls! My heart hurts for Russia, and everyone affected by this tragedy.

I hate to even speculate a terrorist event here.... But.... If it was ISIS or ISIL, or whatever they claim they are... I hope Putin agrees to sit down with the US and other countries, and come up with a joint plan to destroy this group. I mean..... DESTROY it.

I do agree with a few observations some have noticed. It looks like she came down flat. Whatever it may be, I just have to say a prayer for those involved and hurting right now. I stand with Russia, and I hope the investigation reveals a cause soon.
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aircatalonia
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 1:02 am

The cockpit sitting on its side, the wings upside down and the tail right side up... suggests to me huge lateral forces on impact. I'd say it hit the ground with the wingtip first, then it rolled over.
 
DDR
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 1:14 am

Quoting jetwet1 (Reply 39):

Which would actually be

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 91):

I hope you are right. If this does turn out to be the work if ISIL, I hope Obama and Putin will finally work together and completely wipe these Islamic terrorist off the face of the planet.

The U.S. could really use Russia's help.
 
B2707SST
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 1:37 am

Quoting diverted (Reply 87):
Yeah, I definitely have to say it looks inverted to me.
Here's the nose of an A320 with the radome up

The radome doesn't look inverted to my eyes - the brown panel forming a U shape is open downward in both images, although rolled about 45 degrees in the crash site photo.

Following an in-flight breakup, the major sections would likely be aerodynamically unstable and would start to tumble, so finding them in various orientations isn't surprising. Do we know the lateral separation between the wreckage sections? I recall reading that debris was spread over several miles, but not sure if that meant anything aircraft-related or to substantial wreckage.
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diverted
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 1:48 am

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 94):
The radome doesn't look inverted to my eyes - the brown panel forming a U shape is open downward in both images, although rolled about 45 degrees in the crash site photo.

Exactly, implying that the top of the fuselage is what hit the ground.
 
JAAlbert
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 1:52 am

Quoting cougar15 (Reply 40):
it was an IT (inclusive tour package) charter flight. all the poor souls originated at origin, you cant just go and book yourself a seat outta Sharm on it....!

A bomb placed in the luggage hold perhaps? I'm sure the officials are scrutinizing everyone who had access to that plane as well as the passenger list.

Quoting diverted (Reply 87):
Yeah, I definitely have to say it looks inverted to me.

I don't see how you can say that from the photo of the intact aircraft you posted. Comparing the two photos, the wrecked cockpit is mostly upright, though resting on it's left side. It appears from the cockpit and vertical stabilizer photos that the plane struck the ground upright and the cockpit rolled slightly to one side when it came to rest.

From the discussion of the debris, the crash appears to resemble the AF 447 crash, in which the plane pancaked onto the ocean surface. Hopefully investigators will have some preliminary information Sunday if they can scan the info contained within the black boxes that quickly.
 
PanAm788
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 1:56 am

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 94):

Yes but look where the flattened part is. It looks to have landed inverted.

If it was an inflight breakup (which it does look like), that limits the possible causes quite a bit, does it not?
 
prebennorholm
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 1:57 am

Quoting trnswrld (Reply 89):
Man, this is weird. So as user diverted stated above, the wings are laid flat upside down, and the nose section looks to have also impacted flat but upside down. The tail section looks like it landed flat, but right side up.

Among the many pictures we have seen none shows both the tail and the wings/forward fuselage. It indicates to me that the tail may have separated in the air, and has come to rest some significant distance from the rest of the wreak.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
PHX Flyer
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 2:05 am

Quoting Deanger (Reply 77):
there is no evidence or terrorism and it's most likely mechanical. (seems like a big leap there, but who am I to say)

I agree that this is a big leap. The Egyptian authorities actually stated almost immediately after the crash that it was due to mechanical failure. Obviously they are very afraid of losing even more of the tourism business.
My thought is that an airport worker with access to the aircraft may have planted a small bomb aboard. Not big enough to completely destroy the airframe, but sufficient to render it unmaneuverable. If that turned out to be true, it would have a huge impact on the Egyptian economy, because if the local airport workers could not be trusted, it would essentially kill tourism in Egypt for the foreseeable future.
"Once you have tasted flight, you will walk the earth with your eyes forever skyward, for there you have been and there you long to return." -Leonardo Da Vinci
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