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nikeherc
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 6:44 pm

A heat seeking missile would go for one of the engines or possibly the APU exhaust if it were running. A radar guided SAM would go for the strongest radar return, normally at the wing root fuselage join. With a heat seeker, one might expect one wing to be damaged along with its engine. The fuselage and the opposite wing could be largely intact. A radar missile would probably have a larger warhead and take out the center of the fuselage along with one wing.

A heat seeker taking out an engine could allow a few second or minutes for a pan pan pan call. A radar missile would likely produce instant destruction.
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lugie
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 6:51 pm

Quoting btblue (Reply 238):
Remember the American Airlines 587 Crash, New York. The Vertical Stabiliser detached and during the descent both engines broke off - a similar scenario here given the tail detached.

I wouldn't say it appears extremely familiar to AA587... They found debris and bodies as far as 8miles from the crash site, AA587 came down into Queens largely intact, or at least the fuselage section was (nothing fell out of the plane)
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 6:53 pm

Quoting btblue (Reply 198):
Daily Mail has some new images from the crash site:

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-329....html

A source for many informative pictures!

Some copied below:

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/01/16/2E03122A00000578-3299019-image-a-1_1446394104751.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/01/12/2E021F9E00000578-0-image-a-4_1446382444064.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/01/17/2E039ECA00000578-3299019-image-a-26_1446400450954.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/01/17/2E039ECE00000578-3299019-image-a-28_1446400504394.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/01/13/2E02596B00000578-3299019-image-a-27_1446384955185.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/01/13/2E0259CC00000578-3299019-image-a-30_1446385664386.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/01/13/2E02575200000578-3299019-image-a-35_1446385807511.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/01/16/2E02F21200000578-3299019-image-m-4_1446394416533.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/01/16/2E02E87B00000578-3299019-image-a-7_1446394592180.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/01/16/2E02E88300000578-3299019-image-a-10_1446395038779.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/11/01/16/2E026DE500000578-3299019-image-a-22_1446395625208.jpg
 
DDR
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 6:55 pm

Ok I admit I'm a little confused about the communications from the pilots. What do we know for fact, that the pilots reported to ATC prior to the crash?
 
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Btblue
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 7:01 pm

Quoting lugie (Reply 251):

I wouldn't say it appears extremely familiar to AA587... They found debris and bodies as far as 8miles from the crash site, AA587 came down into Queens largely intact, or at least the fuselage section was (nothing fell out of the plane)

Don't forget - a larger debris field due to the higher altitude of flight. We're looking at appox 20,000ft between the two accidents so a larger debris field is likely.
 
PanAm1971
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 7:05 pm

I don't see any evidence of pitting in the pics. That starts to put missile theories to bed.
 
dmsolovyev
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 7:09 pm

Quoting DDR (Reply 253):
What do we know for fact, that the pilots reported to ATC prior to the crash?

According to the latest info, nothing unusual. There wasn't any distress signal from cockpit.
 
joejosh999
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 7:23 pm

If a RPB blowout did occur, there could be immediate yawning of the aircraft interfering with AS indicators.
We'd also have pretty immediate pitch down if there was loss of HS which it seems may have occurred.
With the wide debris field we know there was in flight breakup.

It seems a missile is unlikely at 30+k which leaves us with a bomb, or , the more banal explanation, poor repair/maintenance of a past TS, by a low cost Russian carrier known for cutting corners with safety.

I think this is looking, walking and quacking like a duck....and not a terrorist duck.
 
DDR
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 7:23 pm

Quoting dmsolovyev (Reply 256):

Ok, thanks for that. So I assume then that whatever happened to these poor souls must have happened fast.

But I think we have all the information we are probably going to get for the time being. There are just so many different possibilities as to what could be the cause. I am glad that the media isn't trying to point the finger at the pilots.
 
spacecadet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 7:23 pm

Quoting hoya (Reply 245):
What would cause the plane to split into two like that? Literally it snapped in half mid-air.

Overstress. It's still not clear if this happened as a result of whatever caused the crash, or if it was part of the cause. Often when airliners are put into a steep dive, they will overspeed and break apart. However, a sudden bulkhead breach that somehow affected the horizontal stabilizer would put a lot of stress on the airframe at that point as well. I don't know if it would be enough to cause a breakup, but combined with the stresses of the bulkhead breach itself, it seems like something to think about.
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wjcandee
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 7:29 pm

One thing is for sure. When we're dealing with "ministers" and such of Egypt and Russia making statements about the conclusions they have drawn from the evidence they have seen, two things to keep in mind: (1) many are driven by political expediency over anything (for example, Egypt still insists that "technical faults" caused their 767 to go down in the Atlantic, even when we know that not to be true), at least until conclusively proven otherwise; (2) being a "minister of transportation" doesn't qualify you as an accident investigator. So conclusions like "a big debris field" means "the plane broke apart in midair", as dutifully-reported by CNN, will likely turn out to be crap.

That's NOT a big debris field, particularly at altitude. Most folks don't have a clue how much kinetic energy is involved in a transport-category aircraft crash, and what happens when all that crap hits the ground in a corkscrew from 30,000 feet. Particularly in an area with less-dense air.
 
joejosh999
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 7:43 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 259):

Quoting hoya (Reply 245):
What would cause the plane to split into two like that? Literally it snapped in half mid-air.

Overstress. It's still not clear if this happened as a result of whatever caused the crash, or if it was part of the cause. Often when airliners are put into a steep dive, they will overspeed and break apart. However, a sudden bulkhead breach that somehow affected the horizontal stabilizer would put a lot of stress on the airframe at that point as well. I don't know if it would be enough to cause a breakup, but combined with the stresses of the bulkhead breach itself, it seems like something to think about.

To be clear, breach of rear pressure bulkhead would most definitely affect the HS. On this airframe the HS is more or less attached at that point and likely would be lost altogether. As we have seen, the tail cone and HS are not part of the VS/tail portion that was already Kms away from the main wings and wreckage. They are likely further Kms away and, if this theory is correct would be the first part of the airframe to detach. Without HS you are in steep pitch down with no real chance of recovery.

With the info we have so far, I think we have to look at the prior tail strike, which caused significant damage, and resulting insufficient repair and maintenance.
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spacecadet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 7:49 pm

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 261):
the tail cone and HS are not part of the VS/tail portion that was already Kms away from the main wings and wreckage. They are likely further Kms away

A post on PPrune has a screengrab that shows the tailcone largely intact, sitting by itself: http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...n-egyptian-fir-17.html#post9165352

I don't know exactly where that is in relation to the rest of the wreckage (or the remains of the empennage), but all of this - the missing horizontal stabilizer and half of the tail, the tail cone sitting by itself cleanly broken off, the high altitude breakup - suggests to me pretty clearly that whatever happened was initiated either at or near the aft pressure bulkhead. Whether the bulkhead failed on its own due to faulty maintenance or something external caused it to would still be an open question, but everything's pointing to the bulkhead having failed in some fashion.
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joejosh999
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 7:59 pm

Great thanks, hadn't seen any pic of the cone.

Yeah until there is more info pointing elsewhere it all seems consistent with aft bulkhead failure.
 
theaviator380
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:06 pm

I don't know whether this has been discussed or people already aware of this,

http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20011116-0

This aircraft had tail strike and subsequent damage (which would have fixed) when aircraft was flying for MEA.

Could there be any link between this accident and previous fix !?
 
wjcandee
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:09 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 262):
the missing horizontal stabilizer and half of the tail, the tail cone sitting by itself cleanly broken off, the high altitude breakup - suggests to me pretty clearly that whatever happened was initiated either at or near the aft pressure bulkhead.

I think that it's WAAAY too early to assume any of this is even fact. I don't even believe that anyone can say that there was a "high-altitude breakup", even though CNN is flogging that as it's latest erroneous conclusion.

Pieces of the plane not being together fits a lot of theories. Precipitating incident + pilot error = high-altitude upset, loss of control, and stall is a perfectly-viable theory at this point, even with a "missing" stab and tail piece.
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:10 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 262):
I don't know exactly where that is in relation to the rest of the wreckage (or the remains of the empennage), but all of this - the missing horizontal stabilizer and half of the tail, the tail cone sitting by itself cleanly broken off, the high altitude breakup - suggests to me pretty clearly that whatever happened was initiated either at or near the aft pressure bulkhead. Whether the bulkhead failed on its own due to faulty maintenance or something external caused it to would still be an open question, but everything's pointing to the bulkhead having failed in some fashion.

I think I agree with this. I have found the report on aviationsafety.net about the accident in 2001, which was in Egypt (Cairo) ironically, and just 5 days after AA586!!

It was a double tailstrike, but I cannot find any info on the repairs carried out - can anybody else? was this a doubler plate repair?

You start to think about CI 611, and that plane went 22 years without anyone spotting the shoddy repair. Could the same have happened here? The Russians have reported that the aircraft received factory maintenance in 2014 - what would this have entailed?
 
wjcandee
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:14 pm

Quoting WesternDC6B (Reply 167):
While I don't t doubt some electronics surviving the impact, this whole "cell phones ringing in the wreckage" story sounds like just that: a story.

No they have great cell service 20,000 feet up in a deserted mountainous region. Etisalat's coverage puts Verizon's to shame!   

Actually, here's the map. The story is likely crap. http://www.etisalat.eg/etisalat/portal/coverage_map_en

[Edited 2015-11-01 12:24:33]
 
spacecadet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:34 pm

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 265):
I don't even believe that anyone can say that there was a "high-altitude breakup", even though CNN is flogging that as it's latest erroneous conclusion.

It's the official conclusion by the Russian Interstate Aviation Committee and it's pretty easily inferred by the wreckage pattern. I'm not sure what theory you're hanging on to here. Planes don't hit the ground intact and scatter their wreckage over 20 square kilometers, nor do they hit the ground intact partly right side up and partly upside down.
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bennett123
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:35 pm

Just looked at aviation-safety.net

As F-OHMP it suffered a tail strike on 16 Nov 2001 at Cairo.

Could this be linked.
 
LGAviation
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:39 pm

Altough it certainly crashed in a remote area and I usually have a great deal of skepticism for eye-witness accs esp keeping in mind what has been said in following MH370, I still am missing these accounts to support a mid-air breakup or explosion of any sort or wouldn't ppl on the ground notice such an event
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lugie
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:52 pm

Quoting LGAviation (Reply 270):

The flight crashed in the desert shortly after 4 am so I'd find it highly unlikely for anybody to observe anything save for someone expecting something to happen
(a remote controlled bomb was brought up in this thread, unlikely I know but still)
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pvjin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:53 pm

Quoting LGAviation (Reply 270):
, I still am missing these accounts to support a mid-air breakup or explosion of any sort or wouldn't ppl on the ground notice such an event

I doubt there were many eye witnesses in middle of a desert early in the morning.
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hoya
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:53 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 262):
I don't know exactly where that is in relation to the rest of the wreckage (or the remains of the empennage), but all of this - the missing horizontal stabilizer and half of the tail, the tail cone sitting by itself cleanly broken off, the high altitude breakup - suggests to me pretty clearly that whatever happened was initiated either at or near the aft pressure bulkhead. Whether the bulkhead failed on its own due to faulty maintenance or something external caused it to would still be an open question, but everything's pointing to the bulkhead having failed in some fashion.

The horizontal stabilizer isn't missing, it's with the rest of the aft fuselage. It's visible at the 0:03 - 0:16 mark in the RT video posted by btblue. The top of the tail cone with the vertical stabilizer split off from the rest of the aft fuselage (and it's the only part except for cockpit that hasn't burned), and the aft fuselage at some point mid-air broke off from the front half of the fuselage, right at the wings. http://youtu.be/Enb4soLA2Tw

[Edited 2015-11-01 12:56:07]

Edit - on a closer look, that first part in the video is of the front half of the fuselage, the white and unburned cockpit wasn't that visible. Still, the fuselage aft of the wings is missing, there's nothing immediately behind the wings.


[Edited 2015-11-01 13:00:19]
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Finn350
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 8:58 pm

Quoting lugie (Reply 271):
The flight crashed in the desert shortly after 4 am

The flight crashed around 6.13 am local time.
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:01 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 269):
Just looked at aviation-safety.net

As F-OHMP it suffered a tail strike on 16 Nov 2001 at Cairo.

Could this be linked.

Yes, and already discussed - you need to check back over previous posts
 
joejosh999
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:01 pm

No people on the ground in hundred Of miles of upopulated desert would NOT likely notice an aircraft breaking up 5 miles above them. There's no on there to notice, and it's too high to see.

Come on people, read up.

The debris field is enormous. The VS , upright and not burned, is Kms away from the main wreckage which is burned and upside down. The HS hasn't been found. That in itself is unusual, as the tail assembly is often the only part still more or less put together even when the rest of the airplane is in bits. This airplane came apart a good bit above the ground, and I would bet parts of the tail came off at 30K. Bodies have been found 8 miles from the main wreckage, and we're still about 80 bodies short. Plus a HS.

And for the come-lately folks only just now wondering about the tail-strike, YES it could very well be related to a possible aft pressure bulkhead failure which at this point a good bit of evidence points to.
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:02 pm

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 276):
The VS , upright and not burned, is Kms away from the main wreckage which is burned and upside down.

This infers that the tail came away first - the fire and burning to the remainder of the wreckage would have been due to the fuel.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:11 pm

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 242):
Bodies now found up to 8 miles from main site.
Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 244):
Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 242):
Bodies now found up to 8 miles from main site.

Source?

I think it was reported that a 3 year old child was found 8km from the crash site.

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 264):
I don't know whether this has been discussed or people already aware of this,

http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20011116-0

This aircraft had tail strike and subsequent damage (which would have fixed) when aircraft was flying for MEA.

Could there be any link between this accident and previous fix !?
Quoting bennett123 (Reply 269):

Just looked at aviation-safety.net

As F-OHMP it suffered a tail strike on 16 Nov 2001 at Cairo.

Could this be linked.

Yes, this has actually been discussed since the 1st thread, and referenced in the posts just shortly above yours. I think it's because they are currently using "RPB" as the reference to "Rear Pressure Bulkhead" that you might have missed it.

Still, if you haven't had a chance to read through the thread(s), I'd recommend it, as that has come up numerous times and will likely give you some great information.

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Kaiarahi
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:13 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 259):
Often when airliners are put into a steep dive

No evidence of a dive. The debris field would indicate an aerodynamic stall.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
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pvjin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:15 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 279):
No evidence of a dive. The debris field would indicate an aerodynamic stall.

Would an aerodynamic stall cause high enough forces to rip the aircraft apart in flight?
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Btblue
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:19 pm

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 276):

The HS has been found, at least on twitter I saw a photo of the port Horizontal Stabiliser missing it's elevator. It was standing upright as if positioned there or, it fell as such. I'll try to get a pic but it featured prominently on some of the initial crash photos together with news stories.

The tail/vertical Stabiliser has been found.

The horizontal Stabiliser has been found, at least the port side.

Both were separated with the horizontal Stabiliser appearing to have been detached in flight landing away from the tail.
 
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SuseJ772
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:21 pm

At this point I am leaning towards it was either a bomb or related to the aft-pressure bulkhead per the tail strike incident.

The problem with the bomb is that no one has claimed responsibility for a bomb (only a missile, which as we all know is bs at that altitude)

The problem with the aft-pressure bulkhead is the picture below. That is a very clearly defined crash site wings and fuselage before the wings. Yet there is nothing behind it. Indicating to me that the breakup happened [b]far more forward than say JAL123. The photo supports a separation more in the aft-baggage area than all the way at the tail in my opinion.

http://i.imgur.com/Op2ABNj.png
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Kaiarahi
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:25 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 280):
Would an aerodynamic stall cause high enough forces to rip the aircraft apart in flight?

There's nothing yet to suggest it was ripped apart at altitude.

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 261):
Without HS you are in steep pitch down with no real chance of recovery.

"Normally", aerodynamically it's a pitch down. But depending on how the wiring harnesses separate (if it was a rear pressure bulkhead failure), we don't know how autotrim functioned or any pilot inputs to counteract a pitch down would have played out. It could have been a momentary pitch down, followed by a pitch up that induced an uncontrollable stall.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:28 pm

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 282):
Yet there is nothing behind it. Indicating to me that the breakup happened [b]far more forward than say JAL123. The photo supports a separation more in the aft-baggage area than all the way at the tail in my opinion.

Not necessarily. I haven't seen any photos of the aft fuselage further back in the debris field. It could be that the engines / wings were ripped off on impact and the entire fuselage continued some way further.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
trnswrld
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:32 pm

What do you guys think about the ISIS video supposedly showing the aircraft being hit? Does it seem to even come close to being legit? The camera obviously must have some pretty serious zoom to see a plane at 30,000+ thousand feet, but that seems plausible considering how pixely and overall poor quality the video is. Basic shape and size of the plane seems like it could be an A321.
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:32 pm

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 282):
The photo supports a separation more in the aft-baggage area than all the way at the tail in my opinion.

That could support either a bomb, which as you say has not been claimed - but then they arent always - Lockerbie was never claimed - or that the structural failure occurred further forward then the RPB - but this could still be linked to the tailstrike repair - we still have no details at all of the repair made. CI611 failed forward of the RPB like that too.
 
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SuseJ772
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:33 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 284):
Not necessarily. I haven't seen any photos of the aft fuselage further back in the debris field. It could be that the engines / wings were ripped off on impact and the entire fuselage continued some way further.

I get that, but you can draw a line there from a debris perspective front of the wings, a lot. Behind the wings: nothing.

Compare that to Asiana 214 which didn't have nearly the kinnect energy that MetroJet did and even in a reduced energy state, you still see clearly the fuselage behind the wings but a significant amount of debris field immediately behind it. Metrojet, you have nothing.

http://ww2.hdnux.com/photos/22/50/64/4885761/3/1026x702.jpg

[Edited 2015-11-01 13:34:07]
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SuseJ772
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Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 11:13 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:35 pm

Quoting EMAman (Reply 286):
but this could still be linked to the tailstrike repair

Yes for sure. Just not sure it is the RPB from the photo evidence.
Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
 
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Finn350
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:47 pm

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 282):
The problem with the aft-pressure bulkhead is the picture below. That is a very clearly defined crash site wings and fuselage before the wings. Yet there is nothing behind it. Indicating to me that the breakup happened far more forward than say JAL123. The photo supports a separation more in the aft-baggage area than all the way at the tail in my opinion.

It is also possible that the tail was ripped off first due to earlier faulty repair and fuselage broke up later due to aerodynamical forces in an uncontrolled dive.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:50 pm

Quoting trnswrld (Reply 285):
What do you guys think about the ISIS video supposedly showing the aircraft being hit? Does it seem to even come close to being legit?

As discussed through the threads, it has been largely debunked.

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 289):
It is also possible that the tail was ripped off first due to earlier faulty repair and fuselage broke up later due to aerodynamical forces in an uncontrolled dive.

Sounds plausible.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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SuseJ772
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:59 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 289):
It is also possible that the tail was ripped off first due to earlier faulty repair and fuselage broke up later due to aerodynamic forces in an uncontrolled dive.

I definitely think is plausible and we are in speculation mode here, but when you look at similar "severings" followed by plummets to the ground, the forces don't usually tear that much into the plane and have that clean of a line. Hughes 706 was largely intact from a 15,500 feet plunge - missing only the cockpick (which is where it was severed).
Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
 
lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 10:01 pm

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 282):
Indicating to me that the breakup happened [b]far more forward than say JAL123. The photo supports a separation more in the aft-baggage area than all the way at the tail in my opinion.

1) JAL 123 did not break up in flight, they lost the VS and hydraulics, but kept the plane in the air for approx. 30 minutes.
2) CA 611 broke up in cruise, resulting in debris found as far as 80 miles away.

To me, the fotos do not look like catastrophic breakup high in the air, but rather low.
 
robertm46
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 10:10 pm

If the jet experienced some kind of structural failure at above 30,000 ft it seems logical that as it comes apart in the air the classic airplane aerodynamics go right out the window. The pitching up and down only tells you that the measuring device recorded and transmitted that information to the Flight Radar 24 site before the sensors/transmitting equipment failed. It doesn't tell you the integrity of the jet. If there was an inflight breakup it would be impossible to predict just how the pieces might come down other than the general order of things based on size and weight as it fell. It does appear that the wings and fuselage ahead of the wings came down generally in a single piece, but the wreckage appears to be scattered over several square miles. Given that it is hard to predict the reason for the crash with the available information, let's wait to see what comes from the black boxes. There is no doubt that a faulty repair of the tail after the Cairo tail strike, and subsequent expansion and contraction of the pressure vessel to mechanical failure could be one possible cause. IF the pressure vessel "failed" in the area of the strike repair it might be hard to predict just how the fuselage might come apart at high altitude and more than 400 knots airspeed. The black boxes should give some good indication of what happened to the jet. How it happened might be a bit more challenging.
 
Cassi
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 10:16 pm

Quoting EMAman (Reply 194):
Remotely controlled bomb?

Or a suicide bomber, as it happened aboard Volga-AviaExpress Flight 1303. That bomb exploded 26 minutes after takeoff!
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 10:16 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 292):
2) CA 611 broke up in cruise, resulting in debris found as far as 80 miles away.

Yes but assisted by ocean currents in that case
 
Backseater
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 10:20 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 290):
As discussed through the threads, it has been largely debunked.

By whom?
What appears to have been debunked is a missile shooting down the A321! Of course!

The ISIL (in Egypt) claim for responsibility seems to be genuine at least for some experts (e.g. in France).
I wonder whether something was lost in translating the claim from Arabic(I assume!) to English.
In English we can say "shot down", "brought down", "destroyed", "caused to crash", ...
What did they say in Arabic?
 
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 10:22 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 259):
Overstress. It's still not clear if this happened as a result of whatever caused the crash, or if it was part of the cause. Often when airliners are put into a steep dive, they will overspeed and break apart. However, a sudden bulkhead breach that somehow affected the horizontal stabilizer would put a lot of stress on the airframe at that point as well. I don't know if it would be enough to cause a breakup, but combined with the stresses of the bulkhead breach itself, it seems like something to think about.

  

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 265):
Pieces of the plane not being together fits a lot of theories. Precipitating incident + pilot error = high-altitude upset, loss of control, and stall is a perfectly-viable theory at this point, even with a "missing" stab and tail piece.

  

I think it is clear from the pictures and stories that the tail has separated, somehow, and I believe in flight. But what event came first? RPB breakup, leading to HS problems and separation, leading to tail separation? Or HS getting stuck, leading to HS and tail separating? Or a bomb in the rear cargo space or toilet, leading to RPB breakup, leading to the rest of the sequence?

The debris pattern could be result of breakup at 30Kft, or a result of breakup in something that caused the plane dive or spin, and breakup later, say, at 20Kft.
 
aryonoco
Posts: 680
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 10:22 pm

Quoting trnswrld (Reply 285):
What do you guys think about the ISIS video

It's been discussed, and discredited. You might want to read up.
 
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pvjin
Posts: 3614
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sun Nov 01, 2015 10:27 pm

Quoting Cassi (Reply 294):
Or a suicide bomber, as it happened aboard Volga-AviaExpress Flight 1303. That bomb exploded 26 minutes after takeoff!

Or a simple traditional time bomb.

My theories based on present information, not necessarily in any order:

1. A structural failure caused by improperly done repair after the tail strike in early 2000's.

2. Some kind of other failure that sent the aircraft out of control, perhaps combined with a pilot error.

3. A bomb

4. A suicidal pilot

Number 1 and 3 alone would explain why the aircraft broke up mid flight, assuming news reports about parts of the aircraft being scattered within a relatively large area are true. Number 2 and 4 could have sent the aircraft into a state of flight with forces beyond design limits, enough to cause a structural failure.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
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