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KarelXWB
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Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 5:20 pm

Please continue your updates here.

Kolavia A321 crashes in Sinai / Egypt (by gkirk Oct 31 2015 in Civil Aviation)
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
kaneporta1
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 5:31 pm

From Part 1:

Quoting acabgd (Reply 202):

Well, I doubt someone inverted the wing after it hit the ground, so the answer to your questions is an unmistakable - yes.

You are wrong, the wing could invert after an initial ground contact. If for example one wing sheared off during the crash sequence and then the rest of the aircraft flipped over. We've seen this in numerous MD-11 accidents.
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KarelXWB
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 5:35 pm

Flight data provided by FR24:

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSp2zqcXAAA8r1p.jpg:large
http://twitter.com/AviationSafety/status/660471475174928384/

Not sure what to make of it...

[Edited 2015-10-31 10:35:40]
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
jetwet1
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 5:40 pm

Quoting Osiris]
Terrorism
The previous repair failing
Catastrophic engine failure that got very "lucky" and caused a subsequent catastrophic structural failure of some kind. [/quote]

I would actually say

The previous repair failing
Terrorism
Catastrophic engine failure that got very "lucky" and caused a subsequent catastrophic structural failure of some kind.

But at this point, it's all guess work from us.


[quote=KarelXWB
(Reply 2):
Not sure what to make of it...

It looks like a massive failure in the control of the pitch, whether it's the tail coming off or control of the surfaces being lost, only time will tell, or heck, it could be something totally different, as above, right now we are all guessing.
 
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 5:41 pm

Quoting pygmalion (Reply 204):
It came down mostly intact..

Interesting. Maybe I've missed a picture, but have you seen the fuselage? I've only seen the photos of the wing and the vertical stab.
 
nikeherc
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 5:44 pm

Not saying this happened, but a missile striking an engine could appear to the flight crew as an engine failure. Heat seeking missiles go for the engines. Some radar guided missiles might tend to be attracted by the strong return from the fan on an engine. Once again I am not saying that any particular thing happened, but there are also air launched missiles. Might be interesting to know if any military aircraft were in the area.
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PanAm1971
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 5:46 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 2):

That can't be right. It makes no sense.
 
alfa164
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 5:50 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 85):
Sure, but only something like BUK could have shot down this aircraft, and those definitely shouldn't be available to rebels in the area.

There shouldn't have been any BUK's available to the rebels/terrorists in Unraine, either... but there were.

Quoting p201055r (Reply 155):
ISIS? As a terror group (and from how they have behaved in the past), they would claim at least an input into bringing the aircraft down, now wouldn't they? Terror needs an audience to succeed. I'm sceptical, but until facts emerge & analysis is completed I wouldn't rush to accept any theory.

   Odds are on a system failure, but the terror aspect can't be totally discounted...unfortunately.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 22):
Terrorist attack in revenge for Russia's actions in Syria?

Still a possibility. The question is... if the terrorists were involved, did they know it was a Russian plane... or just a coincidence.

Quoting Hywel (Reply 25):
We all know how anti-Russian you are, with your wild and exaggerated propaganda in other threads. The accident has just happened and you're showing great disrespect to the passengers and relatives.

Why do you embarrass yourself with personal attacks? Obviously, terrorism has to be considered in a case like this.

Quoting SAS A340 (Reply 57):
According to the State-run Russian news agencies – which refers to the sources at the airports of Sharm el-Sheikh and Cairo, have the pilot reported technical error on the engines and asked to change route to land in Cairo.
Quoting eielef (Reply 65):
Having following this tragedy for Russia today, some russian sources (Vedomosti) said the pilots made emergency contacts to Cairo requesting inmediate landing in the closest airport.

That is the most likely scenario, but I would not take everything form Russian state-controlled media as "the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth".

In the event of something other than a system failure, they might not want to admit the vulnerability of their aircraft, nor admit the capabilities of the enemy.

Quoting OV735 (Reply 190):
It's hard to imagine any kind of wing-mounted engine failure, contained or not, resulting in an inflight breakup (which the reports of a scattered wreckage seem to indicate). Tail-mounted engines could indeed damage hydraulic lines in the fuselage when exploding - UA232 and a number of Tu-154 and Il-62 crashes come to mind - and even in those cases the aircraft stayed intact until surface impact. Structural failure of the fuselage seems to be more likely in this case, either from fatigue/mishandled pressure vessel repairs or an external factor.

I am not an aircraft engineer, but your comments sound very well thought-out. I hope more opinions regarding what might have caused the sudden gain in altitude.

Quoting SeeTheWorld (Reply 196):
Are we certain the pilot reported engine trouble or could this again be just an early inaccurate rumor ...?

I don't think anything has been confirmed.



[Edited 2015-10-31 11:35:30]
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SimProgrammer
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 5:53 pm

Daily Mirror says ISIS claims responsibility.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...aircraft-crashed-Sinai-desert.html

Daily Mail**

[Edited 2015-10-31 10:54:27]
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MadameConcorde
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:01 pm

Work to decode flight data recorder from Sinai crash begins – Egypt PM


17:41 GMT

Two experts from French civil aviation safety investigations authority BEA will arrive in Egypt on Sunday, along with six representatives of Airbus in the wake of the Russian plane crash.

http://www.rt.com/news/320225-plane-crash-russian-egypt/
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DDR
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:07 pm

Alfa164 has a good point in not trusting everything the Russian media is saying 100% right now. They came out with these statements really quickly. Right now we are still receiving contradictory information from various sources.

I will say that the Egyptian military has my respect for recovering the victims so quickly. I do hope that no evidence is lost as a result of this however.

I'm still at a loss as to what could make an A321 fall out of the sky. I'm hoping it's not terrorism, but for the families of the victims it doesn't really matter in the end. Their loved ones are gone forever, no matter the reason.
 
P206
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:27 pm

From Part 1 of this crash


"16:29
Two major airlines, Lufthansa and Air France, have decided to avoid flying over the Sinai Peninsula until they get a clear explanation of what caused Saturday's crash in the area, Reuters reports.

"We took the decision to avoid the area because the situation and the reasons for the crash were not clear," a Lufthansa spokeswoman is quoted by the news agency as saying.
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-34687309 "



Checking FR24 now all traffic avoids upper Sinai peninsula part,diverting through Cairo city
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:29 pm

Breaking news RT

Both black boxes from crashed plane in Sinai found

http://www.rt.com/news/320225-plane-.../320225-plane-crash-russian-egypt/
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
 
DDR
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:33 pm

Quoting P206 (Reply 11):

I think this is telling. Airlines don't typically stop flying over an area of a crash. I think they must have enough suspicion of terrorism that they are playing it safe for the time being. Maybe an overreaction since most people here agree it couldn't have been a misleading.

If ISIL actually is responsible as they are claiming, will any government admit it?
 
alfa164
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:38 pm

Quoting DDR (Reply 13):
If ISIL actually is responsible as they are claiming, will any government admit it?

If that becomes fact, it will be almost impossible for most governments to deny it - and they would have little reason to do so. If ISIL did, indeed, target a Russian plane because of Russia's involvement in Syria, Russia may not want to admit it; the repercussions at home could be serious.



[Edited 2015-10-31 11:40:36]
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tu204
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:42 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 12):
Both black boxes from crashed plane in Sinai found

Great news. Would assume they will be taken to Moscow for analysis and we should have some preliminary results within a week or two.

Quoting DDR (Reply 13):
If ISIL actually is responsible as they are claiming, will any government admit it?

If it was ISIL, they will realise that what out Aerospace Forces are doing to them right now is a slap in the face compared to what will be done to them...
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:44 pm

Quoting DDR (Reply 10):
Alfa164 has a good point in not trusting everything the Russian media is saying 100% right now.

Again, don't steer this thread politically once more. No man's media can be trusted. Not Russian's, not US's, not anything from the EU. Everything will always be skewed one way or another for someone's benefit. We're in 2015 these days.

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 14):
If ISIL did, indeed, target a Russian plane because of Russia's involvement in Syria, Russia may not want to admit it; the repercussions at home could be serious.

I actually think this isn't necessarily true, what would be the repercussions domestically? Influence in politics are out of reach for most, so it wouldn't swing anything in either direction, more so just contribute to further talk at home at the dinner table amongst citizens about the already very divided opinions on current events.
 
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:44 pm

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 7):

It doesn't even need to be a Buk, it might be easier to get a sympathizer with an airside clearance to put something on the plane while it was being serviced
 
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:47 pm

Some of the images on the daily mail site - the forward section/cockpit is wrecked and barely recognisable but in amongst the damage there is one part that's scorched.

Also, the tail section shows what appears t be scorching below the registration and before the port rear passenger door.
 
alfa164
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:48 pm

Quoting SPQR (Reply 17):
It doesn't even need to be a Buk, it might be easier to get a sympathizer with an airside clearance to put something on the plane while it was being serviced

I agree. I was just commenting on the speculation that there "shouldn't have been a BUK" in the area. In these days, we cannot discount anything... unfortunately...
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:49 pm

Quoting DDR (Reply 13):
I think this is telling. Airlines don't typically stop flying over an area of a crash.

After MH17, airlines can't be too prudent... especially after ISIS claiming responsibility for this crash - if it's true or not - simply continuing to fly over Sinai would be a bad PR move.


David
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MadameConcorde
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:51 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 15):
Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 12):
Both black boxes from crashed plane in Sinai found

Great news. Would assume they will be taken to Moscow for analysis and we should have some preliminary results within a week or two.

Airbus will also send their own people. They will be there by tomorrow.

http://www.airbus.com/crisis/
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
 
tu204
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:56 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 21):
Airbus will also send their own people. They will be there by tomorrow.

Right. Egypt has the lead so I guess they decide where the flight recorders go - Moscow or Tulouse.
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:56 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 20):
After MH17, airlines can't be too prudent... especially after ISIS claiming responsibility for this crash - if it's true or not - simply continuing to fly over Sinai would be a bad PR move.

I agree. There is no way anyone wants to find themselves in another MH17 situation where questions about decision making and safety are raised. They want to appear prudent and conservative in their safety.

-Dave
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techspec
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:58 pm

There is an adage that states “better to be thought a fool rather than open ones mouth and remove all doubt”. Some of the theories posted are utter nonsense, maybe this message thread should be formatted into two categories:
1. Reasonable and plausible (i.e. wait for the investigation results or updates)
2. Fantasy and other.
Signing off for another couple years.
 
spacecadet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 7:10 pm

Quoting DDR (Reply 13):
If ISIL actually is responsible as they are claiming, will any government admit it?

Of course they would. It's in literally everybody's interests to do so. It justifies both our and Russia's involvement in the middle east. This kind of thing doesn't scare countries away, it just makes people angry.

It also would make Russia appear almost sympathetic to some, and would appear to "even the score" to others, taking some of the pressure off of them for MH17. I'm half surprised Russia isn't blaming this on ISIL unilaterally and without any evidence.

But terrorist organizations always claim everything. I don't see any evidence so far that this was a bomb or missile; the pictures don't support either theory, although obviously no one can make a conclusive judgment yet. But the wreckage seems pretty self contained, and nothing seems obviously pitted as the result of an explosion. At least nothing in the pictures shown so far.
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 7:22 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbHuMRfXxJU

A video from the crash site. Looks like quite a high energy impact to me. I wonder if there's more debris somewhere further away, the stuff shown in this video doesn't look much for an aircraft of that size.
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 7:30 pm

Quoting SimProgrammer (Reply 8):
Quoting alfa164 (Reply 14):

I believe that was the 3rd posting of ISIL taking responsibility. That was from 5 hours ago.

What altitude are the military drones at? This would be in an area they could be transiting I'd bet.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/secret-...idly-expanding-in-djibouti/5484195

[Edited 2015-10-31 12:35:18]
 
BHXLOVER
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 7:39 pm

With regard to the plane having technical difficulties, even if it lost both engines at high altitude , surely it would have glided further than the distance it actually covered before crashing?
 
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 7:44 pm

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 14):
that becomes fact, it will be almost impossible for most governments to deny it - and they would have little reason to do so. If ISIL did, indeed, target a Russian plane because of Russia's involvement in Syria, Russia may not want to admit it; the repercussions at home could be serious.

I think if ISIL did do it the Russian public would be expecting the govt to hit them and hit them hard, Putin wouldn't pussy foot around over something like this the reprisal would be swift and with no mercy, he doesn't have to worry about politics like Obama and other western leaders have to.
 
boeingforever
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 7:45 pm

Times of Israel is claiming ISIL has video of them shooting down the plane.

heres the youtube video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_ifzfelEJo

heres the article

http://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic...ims-it-brought-down-russian-plane/

i don't know what to make of it
 
ec99
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 7:50 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 22):
Right. Egypt has the lead so I guess they decide where the flight recorders go - Moscow or Tulouse.

Is this for certain? The aircraft was owned by an Irish company so is Moscow still in play or is it Dublin or Toulouse? Personally, I would prefer the boxes go to France for analysis since the French authorities have less political complications here but of course the Russians have a strong interest in getting to the bottom of this since it is mostly their people who have died.
 
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 7:54 pm

Quoting boeingforever (Reply 30):

If real: What kind of camera would produce such pictures? Could the film have been blurred intentionally in order to hide any manipulation?


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
AR385
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 7:55 pm

Quoting boeingforever (Reply 30):
Times of Israel is claiming ISIL has video of them shooting down the plane.

heres the youtube video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_ifzfelEJo

heres the article

http://www.timesofisrael.com/islamic...ims-it-brought-down-russian-plane/

i don't know what to make of it

Even through the blurriness of the clip, it does look like a Computer Generated Animation.
 
Eirules
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 7:59 pm

Quoting boeingforever (Reply 30):

Very scary if true. Given the horror after MH17 was shot down and so many innocent lives lost, it'd be unthinkable if lessons haven't been learned and history has repeated itself. The recovery of the black boxes should be able to yield some clues soon though
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flyingturtle
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Quoting EC99 (Reply 31):
Is this for certain? The aircraft was owned by an Irish company so is Moscow still in play or is it Dublin or Toulouse? Personally, I would prefer the boxes go to France for analysis since the French authorities have less political complications here but of course the Russians have a strong interest in getting to the bottom of this since it is mostly their people who have died.

ICAO treaty, Annex 13, chapter 5:

5.1 The State of Occurrence shall institute an investigation into the circumstances of the accident and be responsible for the conduct of the investigation, but it may delegate the whole or any part of the conducting of such investigation to another State or a regional accident investigation organization by mutual arrangement and consent. In any event, the State of Occurrence shall use every means to facilitate the investigation.

Only when the state of occurrence is not able to investigate, or not willing to investigate, or when the state of occurrence does not exist (e.g. AF447 accident over international waters), then the state of registry will step in. But Egypt can outsource the investigation to Ireland, if they want. The Ukraine did it, for example, it contracted the investigation of MH17 to The Netherlands. KAL007 was investigated by ICAO, just to add another example.

And then, if the duty of investigating the accident falls upon the state of registry, it can, in turn, hand the investigation over to another country by mutual consent. Or give it to ICAO...

Other roles are reserved for:
- engine manufacturer
- plane manufacturer
- state where plane was manufactured
- state where engines were manufactured
- state whose citizens were injured or killed

All these countries have to send - or can send - advisers and/or observers.

So *maybe* it's Ireland's duty to investigate. Just maybe. But the involvement of France, Russia, Ukraine and Egypt is for sure.


David

[Edited 2015-10-31 13:03:07]

[Edited 2015-10-31 13:05:43]
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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Btblue
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 8:04 pm

Quoting boeingforever (Reply 30):
Times of Israel is claiming ISIL has video of them shooting down the plane.

heres the youtube video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_ifz...elEJo

The video is apparently fake. I saw this mentioned on Twitter earlier stating it was not the aircraft in question.
 
jetwet1
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 8:13 pm

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 14):
ussia may not want to admit it; the repercussions at home could be serious.
Quoting tu204 (Reply 15):
If it was ISIL, they will realise that what out Aerospace Forces are doing to them right now is a slap in the face compared to what will be done to them...

Alfa, you are thinking like an American, this is a situation where Putin will use this as an excuse to throw everything short of WMD at ISIS. There won't be the hand wringing you would expect from the west.
 
slvrblt
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 8:29 pm

There's a lot of theories being bandied about, some make sense, some don't. If we're going to continue on the theme of terrorist speculation, I'm curious that no one has mentioned the possibility of a suicide-type bomber. This seems to be the favored type of terrorism with Al-Qaeda/Isis attacks.

Of course, this assumes it would be easier to get this type of person thru Egyptian security, and I have no idea if that is a fanciful suggestion or not. But remember, the shoe bomber very nearly got his wish and that was thru supposedly good security.

If Egypt's civilian aviation security is lax or suspect, perhaps a passenger simply got plastic explosive or whatever and blew themselves and the airliner up. A big hole at altitude would surely cause the inflight breakup and bring down the plane.

The black boxes will have the final answer.
..everything works out in the end.
 
dashdrvr
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 8:36 pm

It has been some 32 years since downing of KAL 007. Questions still remain. How long did it take USSR to fess up to it. Not pointing fingers or suggesting Russia at this point. Im suggesting we may never know as many entities may cover their tracks for political or geopolitical reasons. Absent a smoking gun this will probably be tough one to investigate bring to conclusion.
 
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cougar15
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 8:38 pm

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 41):
Of course, this assumes it would be easier to get this type of person thru Egyptian security, and I have no idea if that is a fanciful suggestion or not. But remember, the shoe bomber very nearly got his wish and that was thru supposedly good security.

it was an IT (inclusive tour package) charter flight. all the poor souls originated at origin, you cant just go and book yourself a seat outta Sharm on it....!
some you lose, others you can´t win!
 
jreuschl
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 8:39 pm

Quoting dashdrvr (Reply 42):
Absent a smoking gun this will probably be tough one to investigate bring to conclusion.

I assume that since the black boxes have been recovered already it will answer questions quickly if it was in general a terrorist attack.
 
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stasisLAX
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 8:46 pm

From reading news reports, there was unfortunately at least 25 children onboard. The photos that I just saw on CNN show some large pieces of the Airbus, the largest being the tail and what appears to be a section of the upper cockpit. As for the possibility of an aerodynamic stall? At cruise altitude in apparently good weather, even loosing power to both engines should give the plane enough time and control to "glide" to the ground. The broad desert playa would also allow for an attempt at a controlled landing. I am getting a very sick feeling about this. =(
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agrodemm
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 8:47 pm

I am monitoring the region on FR24 and more specifically RJA 406 - Beirut to Amman. What a circle.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 8:48 pm

Quoting jreuschl (Reply 44):
I assume that since the black boxes have been recovered already it will answer questions quickly if it was in general a terrorist attack.

No, not really. Analysis of detonation sounds and triangulation of sounds (you have at least three microphones in the cockpit, allowing you to locate the source of a sound) will take some months. We are lucky if the pilots talked about a technical problem, making a terrorist attack improbable!

In the coming weeks, absent a clear indication from crew's side on the CVR, we can't tell bomb explosion and bulkhead rupture (botched tailstrike repair) apart.


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
mham001
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Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 8:49 pm

What about catastrophic engine failure destroying a wing?
 
EMAman
Posts: 206
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 7:13 pm

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 8:49 pm

Quoting jetwet1 (Reply 39):
Alfa, you are thinking like an American, this is a situation where Putin will use this as an excuse to throw everything short of WMD at ISIS. There won't be the hand wringing you would expect from the west.

This is not the early indication from Russia, as they have laughed off the claims from ISIS. The Russians are concentrating on a technical / operational explanation.

Unfortunately I could not view the video, as youtube had closed the account by the time I tried to log in, but I strongly suspect that this is a fake.
 
eielef
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Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2007 4:07 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:19 pm

There are some facts that we don't know. It has been less than 18 hours of the plane crash. This is what I know, somehow organised:

First: all we know was that about 22 mins after taking off, on a full flight, the captain make an emergency calling to land because of (apparently) engine failure. And he crashed shortly after. By the parameters given by FR24 we see it wasn't a regular descend. For instance, if it run out of fuel (call it a fuel leak), or the two engines stop at the same moment (something extremely rare) it would have glided smoothly (maybe even landed in the sand or maybe in Al Arish Airport, or even at Eilat/Ovda Airports (which are not far, although in Israel). This patterns looks more like something different than: engine failure. And we know (because of Airbus statements) that any plane of the A32S family could fly just with one engine functioning. So, although heavy, already at the cruising altitude (almost), with one engine it shouldn't have happened this catastrophe.
Second: There is a theory of a terrorist attack on the plane. That's a possibility, but also a technical fault is also posible and even a crew-error. This won't be determined so fast, and that's why technicians and experts of different nations are on site.
Third: passengers were, mostly all, Russian tourists returning from holidays in Egypt (one of the three favourite destinations for Russians, together with Cyprus and Turkey). There were mostly families, many of them with children. RIP
Fourth: I think Israel will also collaborate on the investigation, as it's close to Russia (in security matters) and I'm sure they have good intelligence of this volatile area. Plus the crash wasn't far from Israel so maybe radars or satellites operating in Israel could have picked some information useful. And Israel has offered already both Egyptians and Russians its collaboration, which will make the task easier and maybe faster.
Fifth: Russia has all the facilities to investigate the black boxes. And I think the investigation will be mostly done in Russia, but with cooperation of Frenchs, Egyptians, and eventually Irish and Ukrainian technicians.
Sixth, I would never say: don't trust the Russian media. At least all of the comments and articles published so far has ZERO political influence. We have seen all Russian authorities moving and organising its experts teams both in LED and in the crash site for making the investigation as transparent as posible. If a bomb was inside, or if it was showed down by ISIS it will give Russian's more and more encourage for terminating with them. Now with the US involvement in Syria, if the efforts are combined, it will be faster till this people is send to prison.
Seventh: this accident claimed the highest victims on a plane crash in 2015, the highest on any Airbus A321, the highest on all the Airbus A32S family, and the second highest in today-operating Airbuses (the highest was on Air France 447 - A330).

Regards
Eielef @MOW
 
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HALtheAI
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:21 pm

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 41):
The black boxes will have the final answer.

Not necessarily. Aren't they stored in the tail? If it was a failure of the rear pressure bulkhead because of improper repairs after the 2001 tailstrike, the cables/wiring connecting the black boxes to the rest of the plane would have likely been severed.
 
PanAm1971
Posts: 444
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2007 4:28 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2

Sat Oct 31, 2015 9:23 pm

Quoting eielef (Reply 50):
First: all we know was that about 22 mins after taking off, on a full flight, the captain make an emergency calling to land because of (apparently) engine failure.

The BBC now says the Egyptians are denying that.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34689870
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