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jetblueguy22
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Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:34 am

Hi All,

This is a continuation of Part 2. The previous thread can be found here Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 2 (by KarelXWB Oct 31 2015 in Civil Aviation) .

Regards,
Pat
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DocLightning
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:58 am

Jetblueguy22, thank you for moderating the thread as the last one was starting to stress my browser. Allow me to summarize some of what we know:

*A MetroJet A321 registration EI-ETJ from SSH to LED crashed soon after reaching cruise altitude of ~30,000 feet.

*MetroJet is an airline formerly branded as "Kolavia," but the parent company is Kolgalymavia, named after Kolgalym, where the airline is based. I believe they do both LCC leisure and charter operations (correct me if I'm wrong). This particular flight was a charter with all aboard Russian nationals returning from vacation at the popular beach resort of Sharm-Al Sheikh in Egypt.

*FR24 data show some wild fluctuations in vertical speed and altitude before losing contact.

*There were no distress calls, in spite of initial reports that the captain had declared an emergency.

*A small amount of debris and at least one body were found approximately 8 miles from the main crash site.

*The crash site has the wings and the fuselage forward of the wings that appear to have struck the ground in an inverted attitude. A short distance away is the empennage, which appears to have come apart, although whether this was before or on impact is unclear.

*ISIS claimed responsibility for shooting down the airliner, but the provided video seems to be bogus and there is no intelligence that they have access to a SAM capable of reaching those altitudes.

*Both the CVR and the FDR have been recovered, but they have not been read yet.

*It is unclear whether much debris has been recovered from the section aft of the rear wing root to the empennage.

*There is some outward buckling of some of the hull plates near the empennage, which some sources say are indicative of a bomb. No concrete evidence of a bomb has been found. Most at this point agree that there was in-flight explosive decompression, but the underlying cause is unknown.

*There are no survivors. There were a number of children aboard with their parents.
-Doc Lightning-

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Brewfangrb
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:41 am

By DocLightning in Part 2:

"No airline, no matter how bean-countingly heartless, wants to risk a crash. The human costs are enormous. The financial costs are enormous. The PR costs are enormous. The operational costs are enormous"

Tell that to Alaska. You'll never convince me AS 261 was anything but AS being bean-countingly heartless.

You can't rule that out here, especially on a limited service airline like this one.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 1):
*A small amount of debris and at least one body were found approximately 8 miles from the main crash site.

A nitpick, but I think this was 8 km.
 
CBRboy
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:58 am

Several commenters in the last thread suggested that the upside-down attitude of the forward fuselage and wings, compared to the right-way-up presentation of the tail section, is evidence of in-flight separation. I wonder though whether the twisting and tearing of the vertical stabiliser, illustrated by DM in reply 326, might be consistent with the tail section also hitting the ground inverted, and then flipping over?

A second thought: a number of people have referred to possible failure of the rear pressure bulkhead (RPB), similar to the China Airlines 747 disaster, as a result of the A321's tailstrike at CAI. However, looking at the photos of the tail section, it is apparent that this section has separated forward of the rear doors, and therefore forward of the RPB. Doesn't this suggest that RPB failure is not likely to be the cause? Perhaps the tailstrike caused a weakness elsewhere? No doubt information will emerge in due course on the tailstrike damage and repairs, so we'll have to wait and see...

[Edited to add my 'second thought'.]

[Edited 2015-11-01 21:12:33]
 
Braniff747SP
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:06 am

The issue I see with the "bomb" line of reasoning is that no one has claimed responsibility for it (the IS missile claim is bogus). What's the point, then?

I think we'll have to wait a few days for details of the CVR and the like to start trickling out.

Quoting brewfangrb (Reply 2):
Tell that to Alaska. You'll never convince me AS 261 was anything but AS being bean-countingly heartless.

This is undeniably true, but I'd argue that they at no point thought that they were putting anyone in danger -- I.e., no one willingly does something dangerous; they believe that their penny-pinching will ultimately be innocuous.
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dc863
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:34 am

Quoting Braniff747SP (Reply 4):
This is undeniably true, but I'd argue that they at no point thought that they were putting anyone in danger -- I.e., no one willingly does something dangerous; they believe that their penny-pinching will ultimately be innocuous.

Still if the cause is from a bomb, the Russian gov't and civilian aviation authority has a lot to explain vis a vis letting Russians visit the ME without warnings to their traveling public when their country is involved bombing Sunnis a few hundred miles away in Syria.
 
Brewfangrb
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:50 am

Quoting Braniff747SP (Reply 4):
I'd argue that they at no point thought that they were putting anyone in danger -- I.e., no one willingly does something dangerous; they believe that their penny-pinching will ultimately be innocuous.

At a basic level, you're right. Any of these situations are an airline telling themselves they know better, that regulations are overblown and costly, etc. I mean, no leader in a situation like Alaska's would say "Oh, we knew it was dangerous, but we rolled the dice and lost."

A better way to put my point is that an airline can delude themselves and convince themselves that safety is #1 and they're just accomplishing it cheaper. To me, that IS willing doing something dangerous--disregarding the manufacturer's recommendations and the law. Alaska got off far too easy.
 
ly7e7
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 6:19 am

Quoting dc863 (Reply 5):
Still if the cause is from a bomb, the Russian gov't and civilian aviation authority has a lot to explain vis a vis letting Russians visit the ME without warnings to their traveling public when their country is involved bombing Sunnis a few hundred miles away in Syria.

Such cautions will probably not follow for internal political reasons - it would project weakness. On top of that the existing warnings and limitations ( concerning public officials, military, intelligence, law enforcement personnel and some other citizens) on traveling abroad together with new ones will revive the USSR attitude towards travel - e.g. fears that none will be allowed for Russians.
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N1120A
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:00 am

Quoting brewfangrb (Reply 2):
Tell that to Alaska. You'll never convince me AS 261 was anything but AS being bean-countingly heartless.

No question. That has come to my mind repeatedly in this whole mess.
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lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:11 am

Quoting CBRboy (Reply 3):
Doesn't this suggest that RPB failure is not likely to be the cause? Perhaps the tailstrike caused a weakness elsewhere?

very possible.
In the China airlines case, it was not the bulkhead that failed, but a doubler nearby. If the tailstrike had something to do with it, the affected area would be somewhere near the tail, but not necessarily the bulkhead.
 
BravoOne
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:07 am

Quoting CBRboy (Reply 3):
A second thought: a number of people have referred to possible failure of the rear pressure bulkhead (RPB), similar to the China Airlines 747 disaster

Posters keep referring to a China Airlines accident? Wasn't that a Japan airlines 747 that crashed because of an improperly repaired bulkhead that Boeing did?
 
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pvjin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:10 am

Quoting BravoOne (Reply 10):
Posters keep referring to a China Airlines accident? Wasn't that a Japan airlines 747 that crashed because of an improperly repaired bulkhead that Boeing did?

Also a China Airlines 747 crashed due to an incorrect repair after a tail strike, that happened in early 2000's.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_611
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captainmeeerkat
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:12 am

I can't post the link now but BBC news runs with the story that the airline is now blaming "external factors"
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N14AZ
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:17 am

Quoting captainmeeerkat (Reply 12):
I can't post the link now but BBC news runs with the story that the airline is now blaming "external factors"
Quote:
"The only reasonable explanation is that it was [due to] external activity."

Hmmm, what else could he say right now...

Kolavia is also adressing the tail-strike:

Quote:
A previous tail strike in 2001 was repaired fully, another company official said.

Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34697416
 
SCQ83
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:22 am

I said this yesterday in the other thread

Quote:
Just a wait a few hours and at Russia Today they will talking about a bomb and some Islamic terrorist implication.

Well here we are... so where are those that said "conspiracy drama", "you're just making a fool out of yourself", and my favourite, "Oh well, it would appear that the tinfoil hat brigade seem to have come out from the woodwork with depressing rapidity" by @GlenP
 
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pvjin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:27 am

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 14):
Well here we are... so where are those that said "conspiracy drama", "you're just making a fool out of yourself", and my favourite, "Oh well, it would appear that the tinfoil hat brigade seem to have come out from the woodwork with depressing rapidity" by @GlenP

A bomb is a perfectly valid possibility, I don't see why Russians shouldn't consider it until proven otherwise. It would more suspicious if they outright denied the possibility of a terrorist attack being behind this.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
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Coal
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:35 am

Quoting captainmeeerkat (Reply 12):
I can't post the link now but BBC news runs with the story that the airline is now blaming "external factors"

Same on CNN:

Quote:
We exclude technical problems and reject human error," Alexander Smirnov, an official at the airline, told a news conference as he discussed possible causes of the crash.

Not surprising he's stating that (with what proof?) considering the investigation in Russia apparently included raiding the airline's offices and questioning their personnel.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/02/af...plane-crash-egypt-sinai/index.html

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AR385
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:36 am

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 14):
I said this yesterday in the other thread

No. You said this:

"Russian false flag IMO. A good way to legitimate their pro-Assad intervention in Syria."

Which is not saying that a device was planted. What you implied was that the very same Russians were responsible for the plane crashing. You were called on your crass statement by a few posters, too. And you got off lightly, in my opinion.

So, there is nothing wrong with saying that some device brought the plane down. But don´t legitimate yourself now. You made a blatant, unproven and serious accusation. Whatever your bias, I don´t get it. But I seriously doubt that if the plane was brought down by "external factors" the last thing I would think is that it was a Russian plot to legitimize their intervention in Syria.

Among other obvious factors, don´t you think they would have done it BEFORE intervening?

[Edited 2015-11-02 02:47:30]
 
dare100em
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:37 am

Quoting pvjin (Reply 15):
A bomb is a perfectly valid possibility, I don't see why Russians shouldn't consider it until proven otherwise. It would more suspicious if they outright denied the possibility of a terrorist attack being behind this.

Until now it looks more-and-more like an attack/strike by some terrorist group. (Edit: At least it is a high possibility as well as an "accident" from some army active in the area).

The initial claim from Egypt about "They can't have [the equipment] for an attack [in 9xxx m height]." was always ridiclious. No one knows what they have and havn't. The Irakian army had any kind of equipment necessaray and it's well known that these arms are vagabunding all over the Arabian world ATM.

[Edited 2015-11-02 02:45:51]
 
SCQ83
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:49 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 17):
[Which is not saying that a device was planted. What you implied was that the very same Russians were responsible for the plane crashing. You were called on your crass statement by a few posters, too. And you got off lightly, in my opinion.

So, there is nothing wrong with saying that some device brought the plane down. But don´t legitimate yourself now. You made a blatant, unproven and serious accusation. Whatever your bias, I don´t get it. But I seriously doubt that if the plane was brought down by "external factors" the last thing I would think is that it was a Russian plot to legitimize their intervention in Syria.

It could be very well an accident and the Russian govt is lying. Bottom line, Russia is not a democracy so you cannot expect an independent investigation or the truth.

What I said is that the Russian media (like that joke called Russia Today that looks more like a conspiracy channel than a real news channel) would move into the terrorism theory ASAP. And that is what has happened.

If this is an accident, it has became in a perfect time for Putin (a Russian aircraft flying from Egypt packed with Russian holidaymakers now that the Russian Army is helping Assad in Syria... it couldn't be better for their policy).

Anyway, this being a Russian aircraft flying between Egypt and Russia (two dictatorships), I guess we will never know what truly happened.
 
dc863
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:50 am

Does anyone have information regarding the piece of wreckage along with a passenger found some miles from the main crash site?
 
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:55 am

I know lots of you think that ISIS's claim is bogus. But did they actually claim to have fired a missile or did they just claim it was them that brought down the aircraft?

As I recall, ISIS were the beneficiaries (multiple times-?) of equipment left behind by Iraqi forces who just ran away from battles? Some of this was US military stuff, I think. In which case, ISIS could well have some very sophisticated weapons with which to attack unsuspecting airliners.
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pvjin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:02 am

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 19):
It could be very well an accident and the Russian govt is lying. Bottom line, Russia is not a democracy so you cannot expect an independent investigation or the truth.

So far the Russian government hasn't claimed that it's definitely an act of terror, nor have they claimed that it's definitely an accident. It's just you placing words in their mouth because of your patriotism / tinfoil hat hobby or whatever.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 19):
What I said is that the Russian media (like that joke called Russia Today that looks more like a conspiracy channel than a real news channel) would move into the terrorism theory ASAP. And that is what has happened.

Believe me, western media is certainly no more objective than Russia Today when it comes to many topics. Every day at least in European media I see blatant misinformation and lack of objectiveness when it comes to topics like immigration.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 19):
Anyway, this being a Russian aircraft flying between Egypt and Russia (two dictatorships), I guess we will never know what truly happened.

As if the United States was a perfect example of democracy. Get real, you only get to vote between two bad options that both pursue whatever policies the big money behind them wants them to do, your country is not a democracy in its traditional sense. In fact I believe only true democracy in western world is Switzerland

Let's see the different options from Russian government's perspective:

1. A bomb attack? No problem, would just bring more justification for the campaign in Syria.

2. Structural failure / pilot error caused by poor maintenance / training? Fine, blame the airline, revoke their license perhaps.

3. Suicidal pilot? Not really Russian government's fault at all, crazy individuals exist in all countries.

Whatever the truth is the Russian government has no real reason to hide it in this case. And no, Russian false flag isn't a realistic option, if you think it is you need some help.

[Edited 2015-11-02 03:06:52]
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
AR385
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:05 am

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 19):
Anyway, this being a Russian aircraft flying between Egypt and Russia (two dictatorships), I guess we will never know what truly happened.

I doubt that. Since, not knowing what happened would mean that the cause is not known and thus instantly making the entire 320s series a suspect design, Airbus would never let that happen.

Every news outlet is now running with the "external factor" phrase as stated by the airline and the Russian government. In my eyes, this is all but coming out and openly saying this was terrorist act.
 
liquidair
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:05 am

Just skimming the front pages of newspapers and tabloids here in the UK, and there's a few already running the aeroplane was blown up theory.

Apparently tour operators are offering alternatives to anybody booked to sharm.

Fair enough, tabloids are notoriously unreliable- on the other hand it's looking increasingly likely. Just because we don't know if anybody has claimed responsibility doesn't mean there hasn't been a claim.

Looking at the FR24 adsb data, the rapid cycling between climb and descent with 22 seconds almost looks like somersaults... Is it even possible for a passenger plane to do that so rapidly whilst still going forward?

[Edited 2015-11-02 03:23:54]
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cedarjet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:13 am

Explosives leave a pretty obvious signature; if it was a missile we would know without doubt by now, and if it was a bomb I think we'd know by now also, or imminently. I think structural failure will prove to be the cause, due to a botched repair, manufacturing error or similar.
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AIRWALK
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:21 am

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 19):
Anyway, this being a Russian aircraft flying between Egypt and Russia (two dictatorships), I guess we will never know what truly happened.

Yes... because I'm sure the BEA and BFU would be happy to accept whatever they say, true or not.

"In accordance with international provisions the BEA, representing the State of Design of the aeroplane, is participating in the investigation with its German counterpart, the Bundesstelle für Flugunfalluntersuchung (BFU), representing the State of Manufacture, while their Russian counterpart, the Interstate Aviation Committee (MAK), will be representing the State of the Operator."
I'm sure this thread will take off soon
 
hinckley
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:23 am

Quoting pvjin (Reply 22):
As if the United States was a perfect example of democracy. Get real, you only get to vote between two bad options that both pursue whatever policies the big money behind them wants them to do, your country is not a democracy in its traditional sense. In fact I believe only true democracy in western world is Switzerland.

US democracy is flawed at best. However, the issue in this case is whether a democracy has a free and curious press. The US - and most western democracies - have that. Russia and Egypt do not. The US (belatedly) admitted to shooting down the Iranian passenger airliner and bombing the Doctors Without Borders' hospital. I don't know whether that would have happened without the US press hunting down the truth, but regardless, the US did make the admissions and at least in the case of the Iranian jet, made compensation payments.
 
AR385
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:25 am

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 25):
Explosives leave a pretty obvious signature; if it was a missile we would know without doubt by now, and if it was a bomb I think we'd know by now also, or imminently. I think structural failure will prove to be the cause, due to a botched repair, manufacturing error or similar.

You are right, mostly, but keep in mind that "we" don´t know. I am sure the Egyptians and the Russians already know one way or the other. But the fact that they both won´t definitively say the reason for the "mida-air breakup" is suspect (in my opinion)

The geo-political implications for both countries of this being a deliberate act are huge. For Egypt it would mean their tourism industry will go into free fall and for Putin it would mean he is going to have to explain to his Russian Fan Base how going into military adventures a la the last 4 years is not all fun and games.

As far as the explosives leaving a very particular signature, you are absolutely right. But keep in mind that in certain cases, if the explosive device is not too big, chemical trace tests are needed.

I still find the "external factor" phrase very telling. I am sure in a few hours an announcement will be made, putting to rest the terrorist act theory or acknowledging it.
 
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GlenP
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:33 am

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 21):
know lots of you think that ISIS's claim is bogus. But did they actually claim to have fired a missile or did they just claim it was them that brought down the aircraft?

As I recall, ISIS were the beneficiaries (multiple times-?) of equipment left behind by Iraqi forces who just ran away from battles? Some of this was US military stuff, I think. In which case, ISIS could well have some very sophisticated weapons with which to attack unsuspecting airliners.


Sorry for the time difference incurred delay in responding to your post, however, I would ask whether you are aware that there is rather a lot of geography between Egypt, even the Sinai Peninsula, & Iraq?

There is no indication whatsoever that the militant group that has declared itself as being affiliated with ISIS; in the same manner as it previously swore affiliation with al Qaeda, has any weapon system even remotely capable of engaging a target flying at over 30 000 ft.

Of course ISIS in Syria & Iraq may have access to SAM systems but the only routes they could ship them to Sinai are via Jordan & Israel, neither of which would be disposed to permit this, Additionally, for what reason would they ship such assets to Egypt, for the purposes of shooting down an airliner, when they could put them to better use attempting to down both coalition & Russian aircraft, which are directly engaging them in their core territories? Surely the fact that only 1, Jordanian, aircraft has been lost in the bombing campaign against ISIS is a pretty good indicator that they don't possess the means to bring them down on a more regular basis?

Even within Syria, the only group known, with 100% accuracy, to have (had) access to a SAM system with the required capabilities; i.e. a single SA8 Gecko launch vehicle, is the Free Syrian Army, which just happens to be the group the US led coalition are supporting & who are even less likely to be shipping the thing to Egypt (if they even have any missiles left to fire from it).
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lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:38 am

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 21):

I know lots of you think that ISIS's claim is bogus. But did they actually claim to have fired a missile or did they just claim it was them that brought down the aircraft?

As I recall, ISIS were the beneficiaries (multiple times-?) of equipment left behind by Iraqi forces who just ran away from battles? Some of this was US military stuff, I think. In which case, ISIS could well have some very sophisticated weapons with which to attack unsuspecting airliners.

They claimed to have it shot down.

You need some pretty advanced and sizeable equipment to shoot down a plane at that height. Equipment that would not go unnoticed andcan't be transported so easily.
 
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GlenP
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:39 am

Quoting AR385 (Reply 23):
Every news outlet is now running with the "external factor" phrase as stated by the airline and the Russian government. In my eyes, this is all but coming out and openly saying this was terrorist act.

I think you've misread the story here. It's Metrojet who made the external impact statement, not the Russian Government, who so far have only stated that there will be a thorough investigation, that Metrojet have had their A320 series aircraft grounded & that the ISIS claim to have shot the aircraft down is false.
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sierrakilo44
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:39 am

Quoting hinckley (Reply 27):
US democracy is flawed at best. However, the issue in this case is whether a democracy has a free and curious press. The US - and most western democracies - have that. Russia and Egypt do not. The US (belatedly) admitted to shooting down the Iranian passenger airliner and bombing the Doctors Without Borders' hospital. I don't know whether that would have happened without the US press hunting down the truth, but regardless, the US did make the admissions and at least in the case of the Iranian jet, made compensation payments.

Nope, the USA admitted "regret", not an apology. It was and still is their claim that their actions were justified, when any neutral observer can obviously see it wasn't. Don't forget George HW Bush's "I'll never apologise for America, I don't care what the facts are"?
 
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anfromme
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:41 am

Quoting pvjin (Reply 22):
Believe me, western media is certainly no more objective than Russia Today when it comes to many topics. Every day at least in European media I see blatant misinformation and lack of objectiveness when it comes to topics like immigration.

Difference being that it's not quite as concerted an effort at providing biased information as state-financed RT. Their reporting on MH17 being a "good" example. Not to drift too far off topic, though.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 22):
So far the Russian government hasn't claimed that it's definitely an act of terror, nor have they claimed that it's definitely an accident.

Indeed, although the director of the airline is now quoted as saying it was definitely not a mechanical failure and the accident had to be caused an external factor. Which now leads some media to report "experts rule out a technical failure".
Although I blame that reporting simply on sheer incompetence when it comes to technical/aviation matters. Same old, same old, I'm afraid.

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 21):
I know lots of you think that ISIS's claim is bogus. But did they actually claim to have fired a missile or did they just claim it was them that brought down the aircraft?

The former. And they posted a forged blurry video purpotedly showing the aircraft being hit.

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 21):
In which case, ISIS could well have some very sophisticated weapons with which to attack unsuspecting airliners.

There are quite a lot of different factions of IS, though. If you consult a map you'll find that the Sinai faction of IS geographically isn't even connected to the Northern Iraqi or Syrian factions. Using the shortest route you're looking at crossing at least Israel and Jordan, covering some 600km, to get from the Sinai to Southern Syria. Alternatively, you have to cover a much larger distance through Saudi Arabia.
So the chances of IS
a) managing to move a surface-to-air missile system capable of downing a plane at FL33 to the Sinai from Syria/Iraq and
b) this system going unnoticed even after the shootdown
are pretty slim. A bomb would be much more in line with IS's capabilities.
And you won't convince me that "they haven't found the system because they don't want to" - IS is everybody's favourite enemy, and being able to pin the crash on IS would be easiest for everybody except maybe Egyptian security authorities.

Quoting dare100em (Reply 18):
The initial claim from Egypt about "They can't have [the equipment] for an attack [in 9xxx m height]." was always ridiclious. No one knows what they have and havn't. The Irakian army had any kind of equipment necessaray and it's well known that these arms are vagabunding all over the Arabian world ATM.

Even in the case of MH17, it was possible to track the movement of the required equipment. And that was in an area that was pretty much under rebel control at the time. Sinai has IS activity, but is by no means under IS control. It'd surely be possible to track such equipment moving in the rocky desert that is the Sinai, with little means of hiding stuff and covering your tracks. That and what I said above - the Sinai has no land connection to any areas controlled by IS. You have to cross quite a few kilometres of Saudi Arabian and/or Israeli/Jordanian terrority undetected. Good luck with that.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 19):
Anyway, this being a Russian aircraft flying between Egypt and Russia (two dictatorships), I guess we will never know what truly happened.

I concur generally with what you say about RT, but wouldn't go as far as concluding that the investigation is going to be botched because of this.
We have a pretty good idea of what happened to MH17. Even Russia doesn't disagree with the very basic fact that a BUK missile hit the plane. They're "just" trying to argue that it wasn't pro-Russian rebels that shot the plane down, but Ukraine/pro-Ukranian forces. A pretty major point, granted, but looking at it from an aviation perspective, the primary cause isn't disputed.

Thus, I'm somewhat hopeful we'll get a pretty good idea of what happened to this flight as well. Egypt isn't exactly a democracy, but neither was it under Mubarak; and back then just like now I did/do have some basic trust in Egypt's authorities assuring that evidence isn't tampered with. To wit: in the aerial fottage RT released you can see that crash sites had been fenced off to prevent unauthorised access (even though it's a pretty remote area to begin with). Not quite the same story with MH17 where journalists, neighbours, soldiers etc. seemed to have free reign over picking up duty free bags, arranging debris for photos, etc.
42
 
aircatalonia
Posts: 624
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:43 am

Just for comparison, this is the crack/line in the vertical stabilizer I was referring to.

in May, and after the crash:


 
AR385
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:45 am

Quoting GlenP (Reply 31):
I think you've misread the story here. It's Metrojet who made the external impact statement, not the Russian Government,

No. The first time they mentioned it on CNN, at 04:00 CST (sure, not the best) they said the Russian Government. Then on their next news cycle, at 04:30 they did say it was the airline and did not mention "Russian Government" anymore. I am only going with what I heard.

You may be perfectly right. But I did not misread the story. Given the way it was presented, I interpreted it as both the airline and the Russian Government saying same.
 
lancelot07
Posts: 1084
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:03 pm

Quoting aircatalonia (Reply 34):
Just for comparison, this is the crack/line in the vertical stabilizer I was referring to.

in May, and after the crash:

in May the word "Metrojet" is missing. Seems to have been repainted.
 
hinckley
Posts: 539
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:25 pm

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 32):
Nope, the USA admitted "regret", not an apology. It was and still is their claim that their actions were justified, when any neutral observer can obviously see it wasn't. Don't forget George HW Bush's "I'll never apologise for America, I don't care what the facts are"?

Ronald Reagan expressed "regret" for the downing of the Iranian jetliner. Not a sufficient word imo, but reparations were paid. Obama "apologized" to Doctors Without Borders. And, fwiw, George W. Bush "apologized" for Abu Ghraib. The US and its actions abroad are FAR, FAR from perfect, but I'll compare US leadership favorably in today's world to Russia's and many "head in the sand" democracies.

There's no black and white out there. Do you really think that the commander of the Vincennes shot down an A300 on purpose?? Time to grow up if you think the answer is "yes". Was the shoot-down a major screw-up?? Of course it was.
 
YULWinterSkies
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:26 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 19):
Anyway, this being a Russian aircraft flying between Egypt and Russia (two dictatorships), I guess we will never know what truly happened.

No, this is wrong. We will know, in part because it is an Airbus, and every country that has at least one operator of Airbus planes will demand an investigation.
When I doubt... go running!
 
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:28 pm

Quoting captainmeeerkat (Reply 12):
I can't post the link now but BBC news runs with the story that the airline is now blaming "external factors"

Here is the link: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34697416

The airline is saying that the only possible cause could be external factors, "an external impact".

Spokesperson for Kreml says that no causes should be ruled out and that the investigation is just starting.

In this case I think the Kreml person is right. Of course the airline can be saying that they did nothing work and their equipment, training etc. is perfect. But the bottom line is that you don't know until you have investigated.
 
galleypower
Posts: 267
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:32 pm

Quoting aircatalonia (Reply 34):
Just for comparison, this is the crack/line in the vertical stabilizer I was referring to.

Hard to tell, could be just dirt. Here some more detail, another aircraft, though.


 
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777Jet
Posts: 6977
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:32 pm

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 25):

Agreed.

I still think a botched repair job, most likely from the tail strike years earlier, is one of the most likely causes.

The time frame since the repair, flight duration and flight phase is consistent with the likes of China 611 and JAL123.

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 36):

Perhaps the greasy / dirty hinge was identified as just that before the new paint was applied?
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
ltbewr
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:33 pm

Three main possible causes seem to be taking the lead in this loss of a/c and people, each with their own weaknesses, strengths and political issues. We all want to know what happened to try to prevent short and long term another such loss.

Bomb: It wouldn't take much in bomb material, smuggled on board by a pax or crew to embarrass Russia or placed by an Egyptian ground staff person to either hurt the Egyptian government or in support of ISIS/Al-Queda against the west or Russia due to their recent involvement in Syria fighting ISIS. A bomb scenario would challenge security of aircraft and security checks at the airport.

Missile: Possibly ISIS could have got a missile system and trained staff from their stealing them from their invasion of and control of territory in Iraq. There has been major denials of this, and so far no reports of traces of a potential missile, also the damage we know of so far limits that possibility. The big fear of more such missile systems in the region. Due to ISIS publishing vague and vile claims of them hitting the plane already some airlines are avoiding the airspace in Sinai territory.

Explosive de-compression/structural failure: This would be the best hoped for possibility. If it were, It woud really mean, along with other aircraft losses from possible repair failures, that several 100 a/c also with major pressurized bulkhead area repairs are at risk, that new inspection procedures made more often or grounding a/c that had such repairs.
 
galleypower
Posts: 267
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:37 pm

Just came from reuters.news agency

One source (no further info on that, however reliable that may be) involved in the recorder analysys stated that no outside influence was detected and there was no communication whatsover with the outside by the pilots.
 
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United787
Posts: 2879
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:54 pm

Has the section of fuselage between the wings and tail been found? If so, where and in what condition?
 
EMAman
Posts: 206
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 7:13 pm

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:03 pm

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 13):
A previous tail strike in 2001 was repaired fully, another company official said.

They would say that, dont mean it was actually done properly - this is just dogmatic and defensive rhetoric, and not necessarily fact

Quoting Coal (Reply 16):
We exclude technical problems and reject human error," Alexander Smirnov, an official at the airline, told a news conference as he discussed possible causes of the crash.

Talk about jumping to conclusions!! before they have even examined FDR/CVR

Quoting AR385 (Reply 17):
So, there is nothing wrong with saying that some device brought the plane down. But don´t legitimate yourself now. You made a blatant, unproven and serious accusation. Whatever your bias, I don´t get it. But I seriously doubt that if the plane was brought down by "external factors" the last thing I would think is that it was a Russian plot to legitimize their intervention in Syria.

Well said!! I agree.
 
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GlenP
Posts: 262
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:07 pm

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 42):
Missile: Possibly ISIS could have got a missile system and trained staff from their stealing them from their invasion of and control of territory in Iraq. There has been major denials of this, and so far no reports of traces of a potential missile, also the damage we know of so far limits that possibility. The big fear of more such missile systems in the region. Due to ISIS publishing vague and vile claims of them hitting the plane already some airlines are avoiding the airspace in Sinai territory.

This is not Iraq & not the ISIS referred to there.

As stated upthread, the only group in Syria & Iraq known to have access to SAM systems even remotely capable of engaging a target at 30 000 ft plus, is the Free Syrian Army, which captured one SA8 Gecko launching vehicle & used it to bring down what looked to b e a Flogger D of the Syrian airforce.

The militant group in Sinai, which jumped on the ISIS bandwagon, just as they did that of al Qaeda, is only thought to be, possibly, in possession of man portable, i.e. shoulder launched , missiles, similar to Stinger. These simply don't have the legs to engage an aircraft flying at that height, even from the top of a mountain; they have to be able to be carried by one man. Going off the 25kg plus weight of Blowpipe & Javelin being pretty heavy to lug around in firing configuration (different systems but I should think the IR guided systems are in a similar league), with the rocket motors & warhead comprising most of the weight, it's just not possible to give a man portable system the range to hit high flying targets.

[Edited 2015-11-02 05:09:28]
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
galleypower
Posts: 267
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:22 pm

The bomb theory has some merit.
"Sources" compare it to Lockerbie. IIRC it was not the hole that brought the plan down, it was the reverberated shockwave that popped the front section (still have that picture of the cockpit in my mind) Same possible here. If you look at the clean cut line were the rivets were, aft section just before the v/s, it could be the same phenomenon that happend here.

Should have something offical very soon with all that data available.
 
LTC8K6
Posts: 1534
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:23 pm

I hate to be off-topic, but this falsehood about the GHWB quote needs to be corrected.

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 32):
Don't forget George HW Bush's "I'll never apologise for America, I don't care what the facts are"

You should forget it, because it had nothing to do with Iran Air 655. you can hear him say it here, yourself:

http://www.c-span.org/video/?c4555921/bush-ethnic-coalition-speech

"The quote, although, unrelated to the downing of the Iranian air liner, has been attributed as such."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

[Edited 2015-11-02 05:23:45]
 
Pihero
Posts: 4318
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:27 pm

How a respected aviation fans' site becomes an arena for political / ideological slugfests.

...VERY SAD if you asked me...

Back to the accident :
There are a few facts / clues that could be written :

1/- The trajectory of the plane whern it descended was not straight : from a N.NW course it ended on a W.SW impact heading.
That seems to confirm some sort of spiral or wide spin.

2/-The aft part of the fuselage with the still attached fin seems to have fallen straight down : some 'splashing' of the earth below without a trace of ploughing at all. That fact is confirmed by :
- the breakage of the fin ( backwards and down ) and
- the way the doors - R 4 and L4 - broke from their frames.
The same can be said of the tail cone.

3/- The picture of the fan / cone of an engine is interesting : it desn't show any rotation damùage, just the ground impact effect. That engine seems topà have been idle during the descent and probabloy detached ealier.

4/- The state of the wing and the soot that blackens it without too much scorching of the desert floor below seems - to me - indicative of a final fireball after impact. Had it been a major fire, there would be still remnants of little flames all over the site.

5/- Nobody but the Russians seems to have done a mapping of the site. Some pictures or vids are more of an "artistic" aspect than one of a factual accident reporting.
What is needed is a general set up of the wreckage repartition. That would help us a lot.
The missing pieces are puzzling and probably are the most important in the determination of the accident circumstances : The aft fuselage, the horizontal trimmable tail plane. The fuselage aft of the wing root is big enough to be un-missable for a recce helo / plane / sat.

Summing all the above, there was an in-flight break-up of the A321.

Origin (still) unknown.
Contrail designer
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