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wjcandee
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:55 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 137):
Under Annex 13, the state leading the investigation is the only party that can release information.

Which is why I said the BEA and Airbus were doing the right thing.

Clearly, many other parties are not.
 
airtechy
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:56 pm

Has anyone revealed where the RPB repair was accomplished? If it was a complicated repair, it would seem that it was either done by Airbus or under their direction. I think Boeing was involved in either one or both of the repairs that ultimately failed.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:57 pm

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 149):
That said, Egypt doesn't have much of a dog in this hunt, so there isn't a currently-obvious axe that they have to grind.

I disagree.

If slack airport security resulted in a bomb making it on board in Egypt, or if terrorists based in Egypt shot it down with a SAM (which I think is unlikely), then Egypt might have more of a dog in this hunt that you believe.
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SuseJ772
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:57 pm

U.S. Intelligence is claiming to have infrared satellite data showing a heat flash.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/satellit...h-at-time-russian-plane-went-down/
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spartanmjf
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:02 am

Quoting airtechy (Reply 151):
I think Boeing was involved in either one or both of the repairs that ultimately failed.

Boeing was involved in the JAL 123 repair. The China Airlines 611 repair was done in house.
"Nuts to the man in 21D!"
 
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777Jet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:06 am

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 153):
U.S. Intelligence is claiming to have infrared satellite data showing a heat flash.

Interesting.

I wonder what the Kremlin will say to this?
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DDR
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:12 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 156):

The article says that it could be from any number of things and the Director of Intelligence doesn't think it was from a missle.

If this ends up being a "center fuel tank explosion" thing like TWA then I may have to reconsider my line of work.
 
flyzapper
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:15 am

Quoting suseJ772 (Reply 153):
U.S. Intelligence is claiming to have infrared satellite data showing a heat flash.

Interesting. Could the heat flash simply be the fireball that occurred upon impact with the ground?
 
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777Jet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:18 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 157):
The article says that it could be from any number of things and the Director of Intelligence doesn't think it was from a missle.

Bomb on board was mentioned as a possibility.

[Edited 2015-11-02 16:20:13]
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Kaiarahi
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:19 am

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 149):
Egypt doesn't have much of a dog in this hunt

I disagree. If an explosive device got on board at SSH, they have a huge dog in the hunt.

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 148):
The ICAO process is clear, but its effect is entirely-dependent upon the conduct of the state of occurrence. If transparency is a value there, then one result. If it isn't, than another.

I don't disagree (although you'd be surprised by the comity in the aviation investigation community). However, the BEA and BFU are parties to the investigation, and dissenting opinions are required to be published.

I haven't forgotten the myriad of posters on here who asserted that AF447 would be a BEA cover-up to protect Airbus. Didn't happen.
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spacecadet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:27 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 157):
If this ends up being a "center fuel tank explosion" thing like TWA then I may have to reconsider my line of work.

I thought it was just being taken as a given that this plane would have been on fire on the way down. I can't recall a sudden breakup that didn't result in a fireball. There's a lot of jet fuel being suddenly aerosolized, and a lot of sparks being generated by metal on metal contact.

Any sudden heat signature was probably the result of the fireball resulting from the breakup of the airplane. There's nothing about the simple presence of a heat signature that would suggest it initiated the accident; in the absence of any other evidence it's just as likely to be the result of it, and the visual evidence we've all been looking at suggests that it's more likely that that's the case.
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wjcandee
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:30 am

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 160):
I disagree. If an explosive device got on board at SSH, they have a huge dog in the hunt.

Point taken. I was thinking of this as a straight-up aviation accident. Maybe not a huge dog, but a dog nonetheless.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 160):
However, the BEA and BFU are parties to the investigation, and dissenting opinions are required to be published.

At the end, which was my point.

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 160):
I haven't forgotten the myriad of posters on here who asserted that AF447 would be a BEA cover-up to protect Airbus. Didn't happen.

They were idiots. The BEA is a professional agency in a First World country. Might someone have tried to pressure them at one point or another? Probably. Would it have a material effect? Nah.
 
cat3appr50
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:31 am

Reply regarding Kaiarahi’s post #136:
IMO it defies logic that the HS and RPB haven’t already been found/located. With so many of us pointing to the most likely scenario of root cause issues being at the rear of the aircraft HS /PB area as the likely origin of the triggering event and subsequent loss of control, inflight breakup, and crash, it would seem reasonable that the pictures of same and location relative to the rest of the debris would already have been made public/transparent.

The lack thereof however seems to indicate that this information is not being made publically available yet as is likely primary evidence already determined, and that information won’t be disclosed until the investigation team lead (with the agreement of the other investigating team members) is ready to make public the specific pictures, location information, etc. Otherwise, no idea why.
 
wjcandee
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:36 am

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 161):
I thought it was just being taken as a given that this plane would have been on fire on the way down. I can't recall a sudden breakup that didn't result in a fireball. There's a lot of jet fuel being suddenly aerosolized, and a lot of sparks being generated by metal on metal contact.

Any sudden heat signature was probably the result of the fireball resulting from the breakup of the airplane. There's nothing about the simple presence of a heat signature that would suggest it initiated the accident; in the absence of any other evidence it's just as likely to be the result of it, and the visual evidence we've all been looking at suggests that it's more likely that that's the case.

I'm not sure I yet agree with your premise, but the rest of your analysis is very-nicely-said.

These are bits of information being analysed by people without the background to do so. It's interesting to pick apart, but ultimately just that...interesting. Like I said in the last thread, right now it's just Aviation Nerd Fantasy Football and trying to impress one's friends with one's ability to divine stuff without actually having sufficient knowledge to point to one theory over any other. "Hey, I got it right!!!"

I placed my bet on precipitating event that wasn't responded to properly by the flight deck crew, because absent any other evidence, that's probably statisically most-likely. But it really could be anything, including a lot of stuff that hasn't been discussed, as far as I can see.
 
wjcandee
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:40 am

Quoting cat3appr50 (Reply 163):
With so many of us pointing to the most likely scenario of root cause issues being at the rear of the aircraft HS /PB area as the likely origin of the triggering event and subsequent loss of control, inflight breakup, and crash, it would seem reasonable that the pictures of same and location relative to the rest of the debris would already have been made public/transparent.

Nobody cares what we think. Really. Remember that.

Moreover, I think it's an enormous leap for "so many of us" to be making. One thing is for sure after decades of following this stuff, something may very well pop tomorrow that sends all of this groupthink to the trash bin.

At this point, there isn't enough information in to know what is and isn't there.
 
KELPkid
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:47 am

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 146):
IAE is complicated. Incorporated in Switzerland. Shareholding is 25% U.S., 25% Switzerland, 25% Germany, 25% Japan. I've heard that IAE has accepted representation by the Bundesstelle für Flugunfalluntersuchung (BFU), Germany's air transportation safety authority.

Wow, I thought IAE was a 50/50 partnership between Rolls Royce and Pratt and Whitney? Thought the IAE V2500 had a Pratt fan and a core built by Rolls Royce....
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Siren
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:05 am

Quoting KELPkid (Reply 166):
Wow, I thought IAE was a 50/50 partnership between Rolls Royce and Pratt and Whitney? Thought the IAE V2500 had a Pratt fan and a core built by Rolls Royce

You're thinking Engine Alliance GP7000 series.
 
gcb5196
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:05 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 139):
Does any check actually involve "Oh, I see the plane has a repair here and there... let's check if the repair from ten years ago has been actually made correctly..."? Or do they trust the documentation from ten years ago?

I can't speak for every airline, but if documentation was provided when the plane changed hands there is usually a reinspect that goes along with it. I work on such a plane that had some damage to the attachment fitting for the horizontal stabilizer. It has a reinspect every so many hours to make sure all is good. Also in respect to the tail section of aircraft. They are dirty places where a lot of equipment is housed. There are drain holes where hydraulic fluid will flow out and it does not always indicate poor maintenence. There are a lot hiding places that are not easy to clean. Very unfortunate accident, but hopefully something will be learned from it and a future accident avoided.
 
kevin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:17 am

The news on a Russian website says a US satellite detected a heat signature at the moment of the crash (before the impact). Which adds sabotage to the list of my suspicions. How easy was it for ISIS to infiltrate or pay off a member of the ground staff at SSH (which I guess is not as heavily secured as CAI) and plant a bomb? I would guess it was not hard at all. A bit of a wild card but not at all impossible
 
DDR
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:57 am

Quoting kevin (Reply 169):

I'm curious as to how they know the event captured happened before impact? The U.S. Isn't a primary party to the investigation so I'm not sure how they would know exactly when anything occurred. I'm not disagreeing with your post, I genuinely am curious as to how the U.S. knows the heat signature occurred before impact.
 
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:58 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 141):
This is an interesting article form Forbes suggesting that the executives and MetroJet should be barred from making comments about the investigation.

Egypt does not have a good track record on transparency so we will see the result.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johngogl...tion/

Glad to see this kind of reporting! Gotta trust Forbes.
 
kevin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:07 am

"Egypt does not have a good track record on transparency so we will see the result. "

I completely agree with it. Egyptian authorities already questioned the ground staff. I'm worried they might hide the fact that one of them was an ISIS operative. Such discovery might put Egyptian tourism industry to a screeching halt
 
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GlenP
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:19 am

Sorry, the Forbes link leads to a story relating to Bond villains
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
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TVNWZ
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:20 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 170):

Then we spent Hundreds of Billions on worthless spy satellites and assets. Think about it.
 
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Aaron747
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:23 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 170):
The U.S. Isn't a primary party to the investigation so I'm not sure how they would know exactly when anything occurred. I'm not disagreeing with your post, I genuinely am curious as to how the U.S. knows the heat signature occurred before impact.

Seriously? The US intelligence arena has been pretty poor at predicting the future, granted, but when it comes to looking at things that have already happened, someone in Langley VA knows just about everything. You have no idea what these satellites can do.
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kevin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:23 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 170):
I'm curious as to how they know the event captured happened before impact? The U.S. Isn't a primary party to the investigation so I'm not sure how they would know exactly when anything occurred. I'm not disagreeing with your post, I genuinely am curious as to how the U.S. knows the heat signature occurred before impact.

MH 370 case received help from everyone who could help satellite wise even though they were unrelated to the incident.
I guess due to the heightened military activity in the area, US satellites are programmed to take snapshots of the area when
heat is detected. Based on the shot most probably it was obvious the object was in the air.
 
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TVNWZ
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:35 am

Quoting kevin (Reply 176):

"Snapshot" is so 70's. The Mideast is monitored and recorded continusly in real time over thousands of frequencies and spectrums. We knew immediately.
 
kevin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:49 am

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 177):
"Snapshot" is so 70's. The Mideast is monitored and recorded continusly in real time over thousands of frequencies and spectrums. We knew immediately.

There u go
 
airfrnt
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:55 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 170):
I'm curious as to how they know the event captured happened before impact? The U.S. Isn't a primary party to the investigation so I'm not sure how they would know exactly when anything occurred. I'm not disagreeing with your post, I genuinely am curious as to how the U.S. knows the heat signature occurred before impact.

The US has a very good, existential reasons for tracking sudden heat-plumes at altitude world wide.
 
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stasisLAX
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:07 am

Quoting ly7e7 (Reply 7):
Such cautions will probably not follow for internal political reasons - it would project weakness

Completely agree. Putin loathes anything that would project any degree of weakness.

Per CNN, a U.S. spy satellite (that's main mission is detecting ICBM launches - probably an NROL satellite) just so happened to be over Egyptian Sinai at the time of the crash detected a "heat flash", according to an unnamed U.S. official directly familiar with the latest information in the investigation. U.S. intelligence and military officials are analyzing the data to determine whether the flash occurred in midair or on the ground and what that can tell them about what happened to the plane, the official said.

Analysts are now saying that this "heat flash" could be caused by a number of possibilities: a SAM missile launch, a bomb blast, a malfunctioning engine exploding, a structural problem causing an explosion or fire on the plane itself, or simply wreckage hitting the ground --- two heat flashes COULD denote a missile launch and the missile striking the aircraft.

[Edited 2015-11-02 19:21:14]

[Edited 2015-11-02 19:25:35]
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RetiredWeasel
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:50 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 181):
What was ridiculous to those of us with military aviation experience was that the F-14A model sold to Iran BY THE US NAVY HAS NO NAVAL STRIKE CAPABILITY.

While I'm not going to get in on the debate regarding finger pointing on the shoot down of Iran Air 655, I will state that intelligence was already reporting that the IAF had modified some of their F-14s to drop bombs. This was briefed to us while I was still active duty. I found an article here that talks about it: http://medium.com/war-is-boring/in-t...14s-as-heavy-bombers-c9f05be6e6a0. So your CAPS don't ring true with me.

If this is too far off topic, then I have no problem with the moderator deleting it.

Wow, the post I quoted, doesn't exist anymore!

[Edited 2015-11-02 20:41:50]
 
DDR
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:39 am

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 174):

Yes, seriously. I stand by my belief that the U.S. will be Unable to prove anything regarding this crash based on satellite intelligence. Just like TWA 800 soon you will hear nothing from the U.S. intelligence community. That's a bet.
 
josepha1
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:45 am

There have been videos of engine cowlings falling off of the engines. Would it be possible that this could have caused the crash by some fluke?
 
F9Animal
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 5:44 am

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 30):
They claimed to have it shot down.

You need some pretty advanced and sizeable equipment to shoot down a plane at that height. Equipment that would not go unnoticed andcan't be transported so easily.
Quoting GlenP (Reply 46):
The militant group in Sinai, which jumped on the ISIS bandwagon, just as they did that of al Qaeda, is only thought to be, possibly, in possession of man portable, i.e. shoulder launched , missiles, similar to Stinger. These simply don't have the legs to engage an aircraft flying at that height, even from the top of a mountain; they have to be able to be carried by one man. Going off the 25kg plus weight of Blowpipe & Javelin being pretty heavy to lug around in firing configuration (different systems but I should think the IR guided systems are in a similar league), with the rocket motors & warhead comprising most of the weight, it's just not possible to give a man portable system the range to hit high flying targets.

Many experts have said that ISIS doesn't have the training to operate sophisticated surface to air systems. I hate to say thks, but I call BS. When Iraq fell, the Iraqi Army took off their uniforms, and joined the civilian population. That did not take away their ability to fight, or use the skills they learned in the Iraq Army. Now, we have several countries that have similar situations, where these trained military members have joined terrorist organizations. On 9/10/01, had you asked many of us our thoughts of any organization having the ability to hijack 4 planes, use them as weapons, and kill thousands....... Most of us would say it wasn't possible, or very unlikely.

The probability of a sinister act sure trumps other scenarios in my opinion. Whatever the case may be, I hope they are able to identify the cause quickly. If it was an act of terrorism, I am certain Russia will hunt those responsible down, and find a way to make justice heard all over the world.
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 5:44 am

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 98):
You jump to a lot of premature conclusions.

I think he was just postulating like everyone else seems to be entitled to. He certainly presented a detailed, sound rationale for his comments.

Quoting traindoc (Reply 103):

Here is a thought. If this was an inflight breakup, but not from a missile, what about an onboard bomb?

Not to be rude, but there have been countless references to just that possibility in this as well as the first two threads.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
osiris30
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:16 am

Guys,

All this talk of missiles is great, but let's be real here. Why waste a perfectly good missile you can use against enemy fighters and bombers when a perfectly simple bomb does the same or even better of a job.

I get it since the MH shoot down everyone is missile happy, but on the balance of probabilities, a missile has to be logically pretty far down the list at this point. At that altitude you need a big system. The system is far to difficult to transport, for the express purpose of shooting down a commercial airliner. An airliner that due to weather or whatever can be quite far off its flight plan.

No. If you want to take down an airliner, the easy way is to find a target (assuming this is isis related then a Russian carrier) operating a flight from a relatively insecure airport where your man on the inside loads a bomb along with the luggage. It's a 1,000 dollar solution not a multi-million dollar solution.

Strategically using a big high altitude SAM for this is a complete and utter waste of time with a high probability for failure. The risk of detection is also much higher, assuming the airport in question is reasonably soft, and given the unrest in Egypt over the last year or so, I'd imagine the airside security is pretty damned soft if you grease the right palms or attend the right mosque.
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pvjin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:34 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 185):

   If terrorists brought down this bird it was definitely done using a bomb, not a missile.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
galleypower
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:12 am

On the dailmail site

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...jet-apart-flight-data-reveals.html

you find a video (way down the site, after the FDR pic) with aerial views of the site. At 1:50 min you see pictures of a piece of debris with two doors. Looks to me like the service doors of the APU. Piece is separate from the tail piece. If true, why would the APU section with lower part of the tail cone fuselage separate from the tail section? Explosion in the APU area?

[Edited 2015-11-03 00:15:08]
 
lowbank
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:17 am

Quoting WPIAeroGuy (Reply 147):

I was actually thinking about QF32 when writing that. I agree that systems-wise a lot can be damaged with an uncontained engine failure, as demonstrated by QF32 and DL1288. I was more thinking that aerodynamically an engine failure alone won't upset the aircraft, although the Lauda crash might be one example to the contrary. Fire and collateral damage are obviously a major concern. I agree though from the limited evidenced this doesn't seem to be the cause.

The lauda crash led to a redesign of all thrust reversers and I have worked on a few. we had to redesign the locking mechanism and retrofit. post crash there had to be three locks, we had teo hydralic and one electric but it could be the other way round. there would have to be lots go wrong today for a reverser to deploy. there is also on many aircraft I believe a load on the landing gear which if not loaded does not let the reverser deploy, so multiple safeguards now.

Quoting KELPkid (Reply 165):

V2500, RR make the fan set, P and W and RR have assembly plants, not sure who makes the rest of the engine.

reports here in UK say its one heat blast and rules out a missile.

so bomb or engine failure, center fuel tank.

certainly gives reasoning to the burnt fan set I was talking about yesterday, this does not look like the structural failure from the repair.
Every days a school day.
 
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Btblue
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:47 am

Quoting galleypower (Reply 187):
On the dailmail site

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...jet-apart-flight-data-reveals.html

you find a video (way down the site, after the FDR pic) with aerial views of the site. At 1:50 min you see pictures of a piece of debris with two doors. Looks to me like the service doors of the APU. Piece is separate from the tail piece. If true, why would the APU section with lower part of the tail cone fuselage separate from the tail section? Explosion in the APU area?

Certainly a reason to look at the tail. It's strange how the horizontal stabiliser is missing from the tail and if you look at the photo of the tail, inside you can see what I believe are galley carts rammed up to the right. This may be due to the impact with the ground but could be a sign of decompression.

Also, there is hydraulic fluid leaking from one of the HS, as noted previously and on another forum - I wonder if perhaps the APU overheated or exploded creating a wave effect that damaged the HS and changing its angle thus creating the lurching and climb upwards - the force tearing off the rear of the fuselage behind the wing and above the rear cargo door.

Then there is the cargo door...

[Edited 2015-11-03 00:55:06]
 
wjcandee
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Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:41 am

Quoting galleypower (Reply 187):
why would the APU section with lower part of the tail cone fuselage separate from the tail section?

Because it hit the ground at a jillion miles per hour?

Good find of the video, by the way!

[Edited 2015-11-03 01:42:09]
 
ALAfly
Posts: 216
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:19 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:54 am

Source update from Avherald:

a) The tail section of the aircraft was found at coordinates N30.1527 E34.1858, 2230 meters/1.2nm south of the main wreckage and south of the last radar position.

-shocking so huge distance 

b) Nov 2nd 2015 Russia's Ministry of Emergency Situations reported that the search over 20 square kilometers has been completed, the search for bodies has now been expanded to 30 square kilometers. A second flight to return bodies to St. Petersburg has been scheduled for Nov 3rd 2015.
 
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HALtheAI
Posts: 294
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2015 8:30 pm

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:21 am

Quoting Lowbank (Reply 188):
so bomb or engine failure, center fuel tank.

From latest reports, CVR/FDR stopped recording right after some weird sounds are heard. ADS-B continued to transmit for ~22 secs after problem begins. Black boxes are located in the tail. Therefore, separation of the tail at the start seems very likely. Breakup of the aircraft, and hence the cessation of the ADS-B signal, happens a while later, possibly due to aerodynamic loads that the aircraft wasn't designed to handle. The fireball on breakup could've been caused by sparks from exposed wiring or metal/metal contact as the aircraft disintegrates and the fuel is released.

[Edited 2015-11-03 02:30:43]
 
dc863
Posts: 1480
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 1999 10:52 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:27 am

If you lose the entire tail suddenly during cruise the plane is likely to pitch up or down suddenly. At that point the outer portions of the wings are going to snap off along with the engines. Yet when you look at the main crash site, the wings are intact and the engines deposited not far away.
 
Brewfangrb
Posts: 292
Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:13 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:28 am

Quoting cat3appr50 (Reply 79):
including 25 precious innocent children boarded that aircraft

Really? Are you sure you don't want to throw a few more superlatives in there? I love kids as much as anyone (I have 4 nieces under age 7 and a 3 year old nephew) but this is over the top.

Quoting DDR (Reply 169):
I'm not disagreeing with your post, I genuinely am curious as to how the U.S. knows the heat signature occurred before impact.

Asked and answered numerous times...but you realize there are satellites that we run that even "in-the-know" people don't even know about, right? And that those satellites have capabilities no one knows about? The US government--somewhere--knows everything about everything everywhere that matters.
 
galleypower
Posts: 267
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 12:54 pm

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:44 am

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 190):
Because it hit the ground at a jillion miles per hour?

Maybe. But then they would be in one place and not half a mile apart. If you look at the smashd tail section, why do those doors look almost intact?
 
WIederling
Posts: 8926
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:02 am

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 190):
Because it hit the ground at a jillion miles per hour?

IMHO it looks like the wings and center fuselage section landed mostly "undisturbed".
Then a relatively small fire melted the wreckage into the ground. Note the nearly undisturbed
wing outline to be seen in those pictures.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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N14AZ
Posts: 3982
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:34 am

Quoting dc863 (Reply 193):
If you lose the entire tail suddenly during cruise the plane is likely to pitch up or down suddenly. At that point the outer portions of the wings are going to snap off along with the engines. Yet when you look at the main crash site, the wings are intact and the engines deposited not far away.

Well, remember the Ueberlingen crash over Southern Germany between a Tu 154 and a DHL 757? The tail plane was ripped off the 757 but it kept on flying.
 
iberiadc852
Posts: 287
Joined: Thu May 26, 2005 8:23 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:52 am

Quoting WIederling (Reply 196):
Quoting wjcandee (Reply 190):
Because it hit the ground at a jillion miles per hour?

IMHO it looks like the wings and center fuselage section landed mostly "undisturbed".
Then a relatively small fire melted the wreckage into the ground. Note the nearly undisturbed
wing outline to be seen in those pictures

I'm no expert, but doesn't it look clear by the photos that it fell like a rock? (i.e. AF447??)

In that case, would it be consistent with an aircraft at more than 400 mph that suffers a sudden event (bomb, missile, explossive decompression etc.) and loses control abruptly?
variety is the spice of life; that's what made the "old times" so good
 
wjcandee
Posts: 8236
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:01 pm

Quoting galleypower (Reply 195):
Maybe. But then they would be in one place and not half a mile apart. If you look at the smashd tail section, why do those doors look almost intact?

They were picking up pieces miles away of the AA flight that crashed in Queens, and not just the parts that came off when the pilot broke the tail on the way up.
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