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lowbank
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:50 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 246):
How is this scenario : aircraft spins around its yaw axis ; one engine goes forward, the other backward ; with the aircraft forward speed reduced, we could well see that engine reverse its flow... it's still provided with a lot of fuel so the engine is on fire from the combustion chambers to the front... of course, it stops turning... you only have a big blow torch which scorched the fan and the nose cone and blistered the paint.

a v2500 fan is spinning at circa 3500-4000 rpm , ( not checked, just guesing) the kenetic energy to slow that down once fuel stops flowing must be a couple of minutes. i have videos of blade failures that takes half that time to slow the fan set and that's damaged big time, fuel cut at failure.
not saying you are wrong cause I am stumped.
i just think the ir reading we have news about came forward of the engine,
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lowbank
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:06 pm

checking N1 max is is 5650 so possibly 5000 rpm, going to take time for that to slow enough for negative pressure and flames from inside the engine going out the front.
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EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:06 pm

Quoting a3xx900 (Reply 226):
German news magazine "Focus" reports that injuries on bodies show signs of explosion on board.

This is unreliable, as this could never have been established at this time. The signs of explosion could also be explosive de-compression.

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 236):
I'm still more of the opinion it was a suicide bomber; it's the favored method of terror organizations. I'm sure it wasn't that hard for ISIS to get someone to substitute as a suicide bomber as a tourist and get on the flight.

It is important to note that all of the people on the plane were Russian and Ukranian - and I doubt there is much of a culture of suicide-murder amongst ukranians. This does not rule out a bomb, it could still have been planted in freight or by an airport worker. You could probably think of more possibilities if you tried.

Quoting jreuschl (Reply 243):
I'm actually surprised for all of the ways the media try to hype something without facts that none of them seem to bring up the repair history of the aircraft as a result of a hard landing.

This is a good point. I too am surprised. At least I would like to know if MEA carried out the repairs, or if the aircraft went back to Airbus. I would have far more faith in the repair if carried out by the latter. I dont know the full details of what C and D checks involve, and what the inspection and certification by the Irish owner would have entailed - but did anyone actually do a CAT scan of the repair? was it a doubler plate? could parts of the air frame have been damaged that was not detected at the time of the repair?
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:11 pm

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 249):
The simplest explanation, especially one explained by incompetence, is often the most likely, and Until we see evidence of a bomb, should be the operative theory.

Is that the simplest explanation? That not only was the tail incorrectly repaired but multiple inspections later it was never detected? Especially AFTER the CA and JL crashes?

Also, spontaneous structural failure does not explain the burn marks on the fans, nor does it explain the heat flash.

A TW800 scenario would better fit, but that should have blown the forward fuselage off the wings and it did not.

I am also starting to think that an explosive, whether external or internal, best fits the available evidence. And I'm not one to leap to such conclusions.
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aircatalonia
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:12 pm

How about this (credit to other users for the pictures):

1. A faulty rudder fully deflects to either side

2. Wind force rips the rudder and part of the VS with it. (see wikipedia: Rudder Ratio to understand why rudder can't be fully deflected at high speeds)
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/10/31/18/2DFC1E1200000578-3297871-image-a-49_1446315960684.jpg

3. Both the VS and the HS are attached to the same structure, located between the APU firewall and the RPB. Seen here on another aircraft:
https://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/9059/61625582.6a/0_147013_c9c8f095_orig

This structure used to be exactly where the tail cone snapped:

http://s1.postimg.org/8yiu34lu7/jet211.jpg

4. Tail cone and HS break free

5. Plane spins out of control

[Edited 2015-11-03 12:15:21]

[Edited 2015-11-03 12:28:54]
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:24 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 246):
No. what is still attached to the fuselage is the APU firewall.
The pressure bulkhead is located about one meter ahead of the firewall.

I'm not sure we're looking at the same pictures. The bulkhead is located right behind the aft doors as shown in this cutaway of an A321, a location that would be about even with the front edge of the METROJET lettering on the vertical stab. Ergo what's left of the bulkhead should still be under the crumpled wreckage of the rear fuselage, unless you can point out a photographic angle that shows that it is missing.
 
joejosh999
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:26 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 253):

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 249):
The simplest explanation, especially one explained by incompetence, is often the most likely, and Until we see evidence of a bomb, should be the operative theory.

Is that the simplest explanation? That not only was the tail incorrectly repaired but multiple inspections later it was never detected? Especially AFTER the CA and JL crashes?

Also, spontaneous structural failure does not explain the burn marks on the fans, nor does it explain the heat flash.

A TW800 scenario would better fit, but that should have blown the forward fuselage off the wings and it did not.

I am also starting to think that an explosive, whether external or internal, best fits the available evidence. And I'm not one to leap to such conclusions.

If you do not think an in air fireball and separating engines explains burn marks on said engines, then I don't know what to tell you.

And if you don't think a tumbling disintegrating airframe with hot engines and 20-30 tons of FUEL can explain a a fireball/heat flash, then again, I can't help you.


The thing broke up in mid air full of fuel. Come on man.


As for multiple inspections missing an issue, hell YES. My goodness. Incompetence explains a lot. including that.
I would defer to our AB experts here but the laminate surfaces may also make inspection far more difficult, nigh impossible, as with the AA tail plane separation over Rockaway Bay in 2001. You may not even need incompetence for inspection to fail.

But it helps.

Look, coulda been a bomb. Nothing yet shows that.

Thus far, go with most likely, and that is not terrorism.
 
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pvjin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:34 pm

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 256):
Thus far, go with most likely, and that is not terrorism.

Why is terrorism so unlikely? There's a clear motivation for radical Islamists to do this after Russian campaign in Syria. Airport security in general is a joke, and I doubt the airport security at Sharm El Sheikh is up to western standards anyway.

Personally I've been expecting ISIS & related groups to attack airliners sooner or later after 9/11, if this one wasn't a bomb attack I will be surprised if we don't see one within next 10 years anyway, especially when the European Union is being utterly incompetent at protecting its southern border. Smuggling weapons, explosives and terrorists to Europe hasn't been this easy in a long time, smuggling them to Egypt (though actual terrorists could be of local origin) from some of nearby conflict zones should be a piece of cake.
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o0OOO0oChris
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:39 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 246):
- The tailplane, otherwise known as the horizontal trimmable surface or THS
- The elevator

Found this somewhere else:
http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/11/720623_becd8fc01ea0285487052822868c7e21.jpg
 
lowbank
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:43 pm

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 256):

as have several other aircraft without this result, as an aircraft engineer this is not normal
if you are a technical geak like me with a tech explanation please elaborate .
if you are guesing wel!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Pihero
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:46 pm

Quoting Lowbank (Reply 251):
checking N1 max is is 5650 so possibly 5000 rpm,

I have the same figure.
My theory only rests on a completely disturbed airflow. In fact reversed. A number of explosive surges would have destroyed the gears, leaving the engine jammed solid and burning ( as we know that fan, still wityh its blades attached and seemingly intact wasn't turning at impact.... moreover, when it detached from the main core, it took with it a good part of its shroud )
As a matter nof fact, that is what's visible on the engine - minus front - photograph found on the DM site. (BTW, could it be the same engine, as the fan hub would be right in front of this - I presume - LP compressor booster ? ).
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alfa164
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:48 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 246):
The panel which is -IMHO - the one under R2 door with the toboggan door on it shows traces of something which is to me an inflight fire. Nothing else could have made similar marks.

Do you limit that to "inflight" during normal travel, or could it have happened during the freefall following some catastrophy? I was expecting the latter is possible.
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caoimhin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:51 pm

A user shared this AD (2014-0177) on PPRuNe:

Quoting iranu:
During the A320 fatigue test campaign for Extended Service Goal (ESG), it was determined that fatigue damage could appear on the clips, shear webs and angles at rear fuselage section 19, on Frame (FR) 72 and FR74.
This condition, if not detected and corrected, could affect the structural integrity of the aeroplane.
To address this potential unsafe condition, Airbus developed a modification, which has been published through Airbus Service Bulletin (SB) A320-53-1266 for in-service application to allow aeroplanes to operate up to the new ESG limit.
For the reasons described above, this AD requires replacement of the affected clips, shear webs and angles at rear fuselage section 19, FR72 and FR74.

As this is a part of ESG, it doesn't seem to manifest until the aircraft has already had a long service life. The requirement is 48,000 cycles/93,000 flight hours. 18.5 years isn't young, and there certainly are aircraft that age that have exceeded that limit.
 
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:51 pm

Quoting Lowbank (Reply 250):
a v2500 fan is spinning at circa 3500-4000 rpm , ( not checked, just guesing) the kenetic energy to slow that down once fuel stops flowing must be a couple of minutes. i have videos of blade failures that takes half that time to slow the fan set and that's damaged big time, fuel cut at failure.
Quoting Lowbank (Reply 250):

checking N1 max is is 5650 so possibly 5000 rpm, going to take time for that to slow enough for negative pressure and flames from inside the engine going out the front.

Too lazy to attempt to do the math but if the airframe is cartwheeling in the air that will have some effect on both the spin of the fan blade and possible the distribution of flames and heat. *OR*

If the plane ruptured and the fuel was dispersed and ignited the fireball could have caused the burn marks.
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lowbank
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:57 pm

fully understand, if and i mean if the engine suffered a disc failure which penetrated the fuselage. that could hav caused a fire and the loss of aircraft and the fire ball, but i think that would have been behind the engine.
catastrophic failure of the hull could easily result.
but not sure it all adds up to this event
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DocLightning
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:00 pm

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 256):
If you do not think an in air fireball and separating engines explains burn marks on said engines, then I don't know what to tell you.

Brief exposure to a fire should not char and bubble the coating on the inlet deflector cone. That would take several seconds of high temperatures at least.

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 256):
And if you don't think a tumbling disintegrating airframe with hot engines and 20-30 tons of FUEL can explain a a fireball/heat flash, then again, I can't help you.

Generally with disentegration the fuel will disperse without a source of ignition. Even in TW800, the initial explosion occurred in the still air of the center tank. If the onboard fuel ignited, it would have blown the wings apart, but the wings here were relatively intact.

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 256):
Thus far, go with most likely, and that is not terrorism.

I disagree. Russia, like the US, has multiple terrorist threats. There is IS, there is AQ, and there are the Chechen rebels. This was a Russian craft with all Russians aboard (both passengers and crew) flying out of an Egyptian airport and over some politically hot territory.

It could have also been faulty maintenance but I view that at this point as being roughly as likely as terrorism.
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Pihero
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:00 pm

Quoting o0OOO0oChris (Reply 258):
Found this somewhere else:

Good find but fracking annoying : This is half of the THS ( IMO the left part ) with its attached elevator missing.

Questions :

1/- where was it found, relative to the main debris field ?
2/- When was it found ?
3/- Where are the rigtht part and the elevator(s) ?

I do hate it when journos are only interested in showing the gruesome.

I guess that's their job, after all.
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Pihero
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:03 pm

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 261):
o you limit that to "inflight" during normal travel, or could it have happened during the freefall following some catastrophy? I was expecting the latter is possible.

In flight in a large sense is when the craft is above ground.
Sorry for not being too precise .
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hivue
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:03 pm

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 249):
Can we please use Occam's razor and go with the simplest explanation?

Occam's Razor is fine -- but only works if there actually is a single "simplest" explanation.
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4holer
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:37 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 265):
Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 256):If you do not think an in air fireball and separating engines explains burn marks on said engines, then I don't know what to tell you.
Brief exposure to a fire should not char and bubble the coating on the inlet deflector cone. That would take several seconds of high temperatures at least.

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 256):And if you don't think a tumbling disintegrating airframe with hot engines and 20-30 tons of FUEL can explain a a fireball/heat flash, then again, I can't help you.
Generally with disentegration the fuel will disperse without a source of ignition. Even in TW800, the initial explosion occurred in the still air of the center tank. If the onboard fuel ignited, it would have blown the wings apart, but the wings here were relatively intact.

I read this and I picture that video of the Iranian Air Force AWACs airshow crash where the tail-less plane cartwheels to the ground in a spray of fuel...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QenR4MJZkP0

Edit: Higher res version. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOnsIGcZS-M

[Edited 2015-11-03 13:40:09]
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:42 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 246):
No. what is still attached to the fuselage is the APU firewall.

That is very significant, if you are correct. Thank you.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 246):
How is this scenario : aircraft spins around its yaw axis ; one engine goes forward, the other backward ; with the aircraft forward speed reduced, we could well see that engine reverse its flow... it's still provided with a lot of fuel so the engine is on fire from the combustion chambers to the front... of course, it stops turning... you only have a big blow torch which scorched the fan and the nose cone and blistered the paint.

Yes, this is perhaps first plausible explanation that I have heard. Thanks again.
 
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:43 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 257):
Why is terrorism so unlikely? There's a clear motivation for radical Islamists to do this after Russian campaign in Syria.

Because no one has taken responsibility, other than the bogus IS claim.

I'll repeat what I said upthread: terrorism is pointless if it isn't linked to a specific actor.
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:47 pm

Quoting aircatalonia (Reply 254):

How about this (credit to other users for the pictures):

1. A faulty rudder fully deflects to either side

2. Wind force rips the rudder and part of the VS with it. (see wikipedia: Rudder Ratio to understand why rudder can't be fully deflected at high speeds)

3. Both the VS and the HS are attached to the same structure, located between the APU firewall and the RPB. Seen here on another aircraft:

Interesting scenario, definitely.

Quoting o0OOO0oChris (Reply 258):
Found this somewhere else:

Thank you.
 
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:49 pm

Quoting 4holer (Reply 269):
I read this and I picture that video of the Iranian Air Force AWACs airshow crash where the tail-less plane cartwheels to the ground in a spray of fuel...

Hmm. A disturbing video, definitely. Does not make me feel better about the fate of the passengers on the Kolavia plane.

Interestingly, the fuel did not ignite in that accident.
 
WPIAeroGuy
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:51 pm

Quoting aircatalonia (Reply 254):

How about this (credit to other users for the pictures):

1. A faulty rudder fully deflects to either side

I don't think a full rudder deflection would cause the failure seen in the pictures. It looks like the fin was pulled backwards, possibly by the horizontal stabilizer separating and taking the tailcone with it. If full rudder deflection caused the accident I would expect that the forward vertical stab spar would either be bent to one side, or completely missing.
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 9:56 pm

Quoting Braniff747SP (Reply 271):
Because no one has taken responsibility, other than the bogus IS claim.

Not all terrorist acts are done for public political purposes. There have been a number of very real terrorist acts where no one claimed responsibility. Lockerbie Scotland (Pan Am Flight 103) is an aircraft example. Here in the US the 1995 bombing of the Oklahoma Federal Building is another example (168 dead, over 650 injured).

If you do some digging you will find many other examples where no one claimed responsibility for an obvious terrorist act.


Have a great day,
 
spacecadet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:03 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 268):
Occam's Razor is fine -- but only works if there actually is a single "simplest" explanation.

And there is in this case. You may not want there to be because it doesn't fit in to the dramatic narrative some people seem to want to create, but there is.

Quoting o0OOO0oChris (Reply 258):
Found this somewhere else:

One of the most important replies yet in this thread. Where did you find this, and in what context? Where was this piece of wreckage found, and what else was around it?

I don't see any obvious fire damage or pitting, and I see a lot of what looks like "tearaway" damage. It certainly seems like this thing just ripped right off. If it was blown off, it was probably blown off by decompression rather than a bomb.
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WPIAeroGuy
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:12 pm

Quoting 4holer (Reply 269):
I read this and I picture that video of the Iranian Air Force AWACs airshow crash where the tail-less plane cartwheels to the ground in a spray of fuel...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QenR4MJZkP0

Edit: Higher res version. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOnsI...cZS-M

It looks like that IL76 is missing the empennage as well, which sends it into a spin. Definitely possible that the disturbed flow caused a compressor stall and surge, which would agree with Pihero's theory on the scorched spinner.

Another thought on the fan picture; is it definitely burnt? My first thought on seeing it was that it was covered in some sort of oil, you can see the the yellowed outline of the spinner spiral stripe which still looks to be intact, but covered in something. I'm not saying its not burned, it just looks different than the wings, which were clearly burned.
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wjcandee
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:14 pm

According to the Associated Press, Egypt is now officially saying that there is no evidence, none, at his point, that the flight broke up in midair.

Also, they indicated that they have not yet read out this CVR and the DFDR. So whatever "sources close to the investgation" were saying about conversations in the cockpit being normal, is apparently talking about communications between ATC and ground. This has happened before, and I was wondering whether it happened again, and it appears it has. Someone says something to someone and it gets misinterpreted and repeated and we're off to the speculation races.

Whatever comments about an odd noise were, they apparently didn't come from the CVR.

So everybody needs to chill.

[Edited 2015-11-03 14:19:11]
 
joejosh999
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:17 pm

Who said terrorism is UNLIKELY?

I said it is LESS likely than other simpler explanations. Occam's and all that.

People get a grip. I Know terrorism gives some people here a real thrill, but let's wait and see if there is any definitive evidence of that, which at this point is pretty much restricted to a bomb.

We have no definitive evidence of a bomb.

Beyond that, we have a sudden decompression and in flight breakup, beginning with tail separation, with completely expected fuel ignition of a disintegrating aircraft. Soot marks show fire at altitude. On engines and other structures.

The early loss of HS, for the UMPTEENTH time, is very important.
 
exfss
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:17 pm

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 278):
According to the Associated Press, Egypt is now officially saying that there is no evidence, none, that the flight broke up in midair.

the fact that the tail was one mile away isnt?
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wjcandee
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:22 pm

Quoting exfss (Reply 280):
the fact that the tail was one mile away isnt?

No. It's a data point. It isn't evidence of anything by itself. Once again, they were picking up pieces of that AA flight all over Queens, pieces of plane that had hit the ground and then bounced. There is enormous kinetic energy attending that assemblage of parts before it is all dissipated upon impact.

It may well be that those data points are ultimately aligned into evidence of midair breakup, but not at this point.
 
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Ty134A
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:26 pm

Quoting Lowbank (Reply 264):

fully understand, if and i mean if the engine suffered a disc failure which penetrated the fuselage. that could hav caused a fire and the loss of aircraft and the fire ball, but i think that would have been behind the engine.
catastrophic failure of the hull could easily result.
but not sure it all adds up to this event

i have once witnessed an uncontained disc failor on a TU5 in LED, i was sitting in an OS 319 to VIE at Pulkovo1 and the No1. engine of the Tupolev failed at about 50km/h i'd guess. i thought that no one will get out of this airliner alive, since the fire was unbelievable. but never the less the tushka and the awareness of the pilots saved all the lives.

BUT there is not a single chance this airliner would have been flyable. and i reckon if a disc fails the way it did on the tupolev, the a321, even with wing mounted engines, would be in biiiiig trouble. never the less i believe that this was not the case here.

in the end it is currently all speculation currently, but i think that this mystery will be easier to be solved than the AF A330 or MH370.
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exfss
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:29 pm

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 281):
No. It's a data point.

When you talk about kinetic energy, I assume you are not talking about the tail bouncing a mile away?
there is no significant trace of sliding either place .

For my way of seeing it, the fact that the tail is more than one mile away from the rest of the airplane is quiet a good evidence that there was a mid air break up.
Not saying it was the primary reason for the crash,
Just saying the plane separated while still in the air.
(Edited for a p missing in ''airplane'')

[Edited 2015-11-03 14:37:39]
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joejosh999
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:45 pm

Anyone thinking this aircraft did not break up in mid air needs to read up.
Please people, stay informed.
 
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Ty134A
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:57 pm

Quoting WPIAeroGuy (Reply 277):
which would agree with Pihero's theory on the scorched spinner.

this is indeed very interesting, as it would suggest an anomaly of airflow at some stage in the crash. as to the extend of heat, i am not sure that you can compare this cone to a normal airplane part. i think that the amount of heat needed to achieve such results is rather low on this part due to its rubber coating. and i seem to see that the rubber forward most part is still largely intact. sure rubber would burn or melt or be deformed rather quickly.

again, i do have a feeling that the wreckage tells a lot when someone looks at it closer. we only have a few low res pictures and hardly ne debris field understanding. its understandable but makes no sense to speculate on the causes. if it was a bomb, residue remains will be found. if it was a faulty repair, even that will be tracked down.

the only thing i feel safe to say from the pictures made public is, that this aircraft was not flyable at all any more when it hit the ground...

on another picture the underside of the engines strakes is burned underneath but clean on top. strange but probably understandable if you can walk off the wreckage...

lots of the wreckage there looks like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peZ7wZ5JXRE

mythbusters tried to simulate the survival of vesna vulovic, and ended up dropping a rear fuselage part of a DC-9. the damage they created reminds me of parts of the wreckage of this flight.
flown on: TU3,TU5,T20,IL8,IL6,ILW,IL9,I14,YK4,YK2,AN2,AN4,A26,A28,A38,A40,A81,SU9,L4T,L11,D1C,M11,M80,M87,
AB4,AB6,318,313,342,343,345,346,712,703,722,732,735,741,742,743,74L,744,752,753,763,772,77W,J31,F50,F70,100,ATP,
142,143,AR8,AR1,SF3,S20,D38,MIH...
 
spacecadet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:57 pm

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 281):
Once again, they were picking up pieces of that AA flight all over Queens

First of all, no, they weren't. They picked the tail out of the bay, one engine from a gas station and another from a street a couple blocks away... because the plane broke up in midair. This isn't really a good example to prove your point. That was a midair breakup - the tail and both engines detached in flight, and the breakup was the direct cause of the crash.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:04 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 286):
First of all, no, they weren't. They picked the tail out of the bay, one engine from a gas station and another from a street a couple blocks away... because the plane broke up in midair. This isn't really a good example to prove your point. That was a midair breakup - the tail and both engines detached in flight, and the breakup was the direct cause of the crash.

You also need to consider that this happened at FL310 - AA587 broke up at around 5000 feet. That makes a massive difference alone to wreckage dispersion regardless of the mode of failure.
 
joejosh999
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:11 pm

Quoting Ty134A (Reply 285):

The wreckage suggests that this aircraft was not fly-able very shortly after the decompression, far earlier than it actually hit the ground.
The tail came off at the start. It caught fire and tumbled. It inverted. That completely took the engines out of any sustainable mode, the huge gyroscopic forces can separation engines, break apart the disks and shafts, as we see with various parts of the engines separated in the debris field. The soot marks show it was on fire well before it hit the ground. We know it was in pieces well before it hit the ground.

It wasn't fly able. Immediately after the decompression.
 
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Pohakuloa
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:19 pm

Quoting Braniff747SP (Reply 271):
I'll repeat what I said upthread: terrorism is pointless if it isn't linked to a specific actor.

Reading through the thread and this statement comes up frequently in this and other threads regarding crashes recently. We as humans would be naive to think that the so called status quo for terrorist actions would remain the same each and every time as both time and technology progress. Fact of the matter is, someone wanting to instill fear into as many people as possible will repeatedly do what they do without laying claim or even having any connected motive. As humans, I have seen what makes us fear far more than a single person/entity bantering about on their malicious deeds is the fear of the unknown and that the possibility is real and present without knowing from whom or from where.

Forgive me for diverging OT, but if I personally wanted to create mass chaos/hysteria in the world I would be doing what many deem is highly unlikely/improbable and written off as impossibilities. If I had the funds, ability and vendetta (which thankfully none I do possess), I would pull down 3 to 7 random flights within 2 hours of each other in different parts of the world and then disappear completely. Hell I'd even take a flight after myself knowing that I would be perfectly safe while the world would be fearful of what they could not yet understand. Yes I trust with the investigative powers our nations have I would eventually be caught, but after how long and after what social/psychological/economic impacts rendered.

I guess what I am really trying to say is that although things seem unlikely or improbable or not "true to form," someone who is bent on committing such atrocities will inevitably find a way to get us all where we least expect it an in ways we once thought to be highly improbable just a few days prior. And mechanically speaking, just because it hasn't happened before and it is highly unlikely to fail does not mean that it can't and it won't. One single time in ten trillion is all it takes. The longer things go without it happening, the law of averages slowly creeps to stacking on the side of improbable.

FWIW.....
Pohakuloa
Fast cars and 'Jet A' - such a sweet smell!
 
2175301
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:27 pm

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 279):
we have a sudden decompression and in flight breakup, beginning with tail separation, with completely expected fuel ignition of a disintegrating aircraft.

I do not believe we have evidence of anything except flight breakup and that there was some kind of fire as part of the crash.

It is just speculation that the tail separation was first, or even that there was sudden decompression.... etc, etc, etc.


So lets stick with what are just the few basic facts we know:

The aircraft had substantial disintegration at an altitude: This based on the range of debris. But, we do not know if the altitude was 30,000 ft, 15,000 ft, other, or various altitudes when the disintegration occurred.

There are indications that at least part of the aircraft was affected by fire at some point in the event.


We can discuss all the theories we want on cause and sequence. We can discuss that certain evidence supports this theory or that theory. But, no way do we know more much more than the two facts listed above.


Have a great day,
 
joejosh999
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:37 pm

Look at where they found the tail cone and the empennage and tell me again how the tail didn't separate first.
Oh, and where is the HS?
 
exfss
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:55 pm

The HS not found yet is also an évidence by itself.
Not with the tail, either not around.
I dont see anybody put a bomb where the HS is attached, and as it seem , it was the first part to get torn apart.

Weightwise, I assume losing that part is enough to bring the GC forward quiet a lot .

another obvious thing when I look at the picture is the lack of sliding trace around all the part , as if everything had falled vertically, with no more horizontal speed at all.

Not in one picture did I see trace of sliding in the soil.
so for me it is also evidence of mid air break up.
No question is stupid.Only answers can be.
 
Braniff747SP
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:01 am

Quoting Pohakuloa (Reply 289):
Forgive me for diverging OT, but if I personally wanted to create mass chaos/hysteria in the world I would be doing what many deem is highly unlikely/improbable and written off as impossibilities. If I had the funds, ability and vendetta (which thankfully none I do possess), I would pull down 3 to 7 random flights within 2 hours of each other in different parts of the world and then disappear completely. Hell I'd even take a flight after myself knowing that I would be perfectly safe while the world would be fearful of what they could not yet understand. Yes I trust with the investigative powers our nations have I would eventually be caught, but after how long and after what social/psychological/economic impacts rendered.

This just sounds like the actions of some megalomaniac in a film.

To be blunt, terrorists aren't seeking to merely cause chaos, but to advance some particular agenda -- in this case, sticking it to the Russians, for example. Frankly, the logic behind terrorism involves people understanding why the violence is happening.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 275):
Not all terrorist acts are done for public political purposes. There have been a number of very real terrorist acts where no one claimed responsibility. Lockerbie Scotland (Pan Am Flight 103) is an aircraft example. Here in the US the 1995 bombing of the Oklahoma Federal Building is another example (168 dead, over 650 injured).

You're not wrong. However, one could argue that things like PA 103 had obvious goals in mind. The Oklahoma City bombing is more in line with the ideas set forth by the poster quoted above -- the result of a rouge madman. Although that is a possibility here, it is not one I'm inclined to buy.
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DDR
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:05 am

Quoting Pohakuloa (Reply 289):

Agree with your post. If this was terrorism, it may be that whoever did this wanted to send a message to Russia, but didn't want the Russians to know who sent it.

I have a feeling the Russians would be much tougher than the West when it comes to retaliation.

Just my two cents. Flame away.
 
dc863
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:08 am

Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 249):
Quoting joejosh999 (Reply 249):
Can we please assign first to Incompetence (maintenance related breakup) before we all go Rambo and choose Malice (terrorist bomb)?

Sure if the accident occurred anywhere else but the ME and if Russia hadn't embarked on a military campaign of bombing Sunnis.
 
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caoimhin
Posts: 462
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:10 am

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 275):
Lockerbie Scotland (Pan Am Flight 103) is an aircraft example.

This is not correct as to Pan Am 103. If you are referring specifically to the guilty party's admission, you are correct that it did not occur until 15 years later. However, a number of other groups attempted to seize on that tragedy by claiming responsibility.

[Edited 2015-11-03 16:21:42]
 
exfss
Posts: 74
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:20 am

Quoting dc863 (Reply 295):
Sure if the accident occurred anywhere else but the ME and if Russia hadn't embarked on a military campaign of bombing Sunnis.

It is a good point.
And even without responsability claimed,
it sure could be the case .

but then chemical proof could be found
since we can assume easily that the HS quit first,
the explosive résidue would had to be in the tail.

That HS unfindable would tell anybody that if bomb there was,
it would have to be close to the HS.
(since it seem to be the first part to break up).
No question is stupid.Only answers can be.
 
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777Jet
Posts: 6982
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:29 am

Quoting Braniff747SP (Reply 293):
Quoting Pohakuloa (Reply 289):
Forgive me for diverging OT, but if I personally wanted to create mass chaos/hysteria in the world I would be doing what many deem is highly unlikely/improbable and written off as impossibilities. If I had the funds, ability and vendetta (which thankfully none I do possess), I would pull down 3 to 7 random flights within 2 hours of each other in different parts of the world and then disappear completely. Hell I'd even take a flight after myself knowing that I would be perfectly safe while the world would be fearful of what they could not yet understand. Yes I trust with the investigative powers our nations have I would eventually be caught, but after how long and after what social/psychological/economic impacts rendered.

This just sounds like the actions of some megalomaniac in a film.

Sounds like this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bojinka_plot

""The Bojinka plot was a planned large-scale three-phase attack by Islamists Ramzi Yousef and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed to occur in January 1995. The attack was to include the assassination of Pope John Paul II, the bombing of 11 airliners in flight from Asia to the United States (which would kill approximately 4,000 passengers and shut down air travel around the world), and the crashing of a plane into the headquarters of the CIA in Fairfax County, Virginia.""

Thank God authorities prevented the above.

Quoting DDR (Reply 294):
I have a feeling the Russians would be much tougher than the West when it comes to retaliation.

If this incident turns out to be the result of terrorism (bomb, or the less likely shoot down option), I wonder if Putin will want a complete and transparent investigation, you know, the type of investigation he did not want in the case of MH17...???

It will be interesting to see Putin's response to this, and possible double standards, now that his citizens are the victims given the way he treated the MH17 incident...

[Edited 2015-11-03 16:34:46]
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
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caoimhin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3

Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:36 am

A few posters are now showing what looks like a part of the horizontal stabilizer located.

http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/...cd8fc01ea0285487052822868c7e21.jpg
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