marktci
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Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:25 am

"Daniel Lauzon, a spokesman for “Team Trudeau,” confirmed to Metro Monday evening that the Liberal government won't reopen the airport's current agreement, a step that would be necessary for Porter Airlines to follow through with its plans to fly jets from the island aiport. "

So this will likely rule out any CSeries order from Porter.

http://www.metronews.ca/news/toronto...p-airport.html?cq_ck=1446508242663
 
YYZFAN
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:39 am

Unfortunately, this is barely news. The Liberals aren't risking Toronto, and the island is a surprisingly strong lobby. Another blow to the CSeries program, as this could have been a good size order.
 
Beatyair
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:09 am

They are risking Toronto. Look at how well London City and Laguardia are with how close these airports are to the business districts. The CS100 is quieter then the Q400. The only thing I can't figure out is that why extend both ends of the runway, just extend the west.
 
N1120A
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:15 am

Unless and until YTZ gets preclearance, the jet thing is really irrelevant.

Quoting Beatyair (Reply 2):
Look at how well London City and Laguardia are with how close these airports are to the business districts

LCY exists and is relevant because:

1) Thatcher decided to develop a major business district around the airport

2) Heathrow has onerous slot exemptions.

LGA exists solely because New Yorkers don't get how detrimental it is to their regional air transport system. LGA is the only airport in the world I advocate closing.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:32 am

Porter should keep advocating for the runway extensions since it would allow the airline to operate the Q's at MTOW and expand the network that way.

It might make a decent consolation prize...and if/when the political climate turns again, that's one less step required for jets at YTZ.

[Edited 2015-11-03 00:34:01]
What the...?
 
rampbro
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:38 pm

This is a shame. I think there's a bigger play going on here with Bombardier, and my suspicion is that it involves rail travel as opposed to air travel.

Quoting YYZFAN (Reply 1):
The Liberals aren't risking Toronto, and the island is a surprisingly strong lobby

I'm trying to find ways to understand this decision as a product of the citizen lobby, but it's all but impossible. My money is going towards pressure from other, more established aviation interests.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 3):
Thatcher decided to develop a major business district around the airport

....which already exists in Toronto, very close to the airport.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 3):
Heathrow has onerous slot exemptions.

And Pearson has onerous landing fees.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 3):
LGA exists solely because New Yorkers don't get how detrimental it is to their regional air transport system.

I think it's that plus what are you gonna do with 30 million pax/year in the 3-4 years it will take to build a new airport or expand an existing one.
 
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yowza
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:18 pm

Quoting Beatyair (Reply 2):
The only thing I can't figure out is that why extend both ends of the runway, just extend the west.

I'm fuzzy on the details but if memory serves, the extension required something like 400 meters. If that was all built on the west side that would all but close up access to two yacht clubs and would take the runway right to the foot of Ontario Place. Less than ideal to say the least. There must be a way to get this to work but there are too many cooks in the kitchen.

YOWza
 
flyyul
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:34 pm

There's nothing stopping Porter from deploying its C-Series on YYZ, YOW, YUL, or any other public airport in Canada. At least this way they will be playing on a level playing field where there's equal and fair access to all airlines.
 
RJNUT
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:47 pm

I am liberal (not Canadian version ) but I wish they would stop always finding themselves on the NIMBY sides of some issues!

logic would allow this minor extension without much impact.. With only the one main runway there, movements are not going to increase much
 
drgmobile
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:36 pm

Quoting YYZFAN (Reply 1):
Unfortunately, this is barely news. The Liberals aren't risking Toronto, and the island is a surprisingly strong lobby. Another blow to the CSeries program, as this could have been a good size order.

I don't understand what this even means. "Risking Toronto." Are you suggesting public opinion in the city is against the airport expansion? If so, do you have data to support this?

Also, "the island is a surprisingly strong lobby." The island is a mound of dirt that rises out of the Lake. Who are you referring to? The anti-jet lobby? Ports Toronto is a proponent of the change.
 
ytz
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:46 pm

Quoting rampbro (Reply 5):

I'm trying to find ways to understand this decision as a product of the citizen lobby, but it's all but impossible. My money is going towards pressure from other, more established aviation interests.

The downtowners who complain about it are vocal. Those who use Porter aren't. And of course, it most certainly helps that Deluce was Conservative friendly and that Air Canada's executives have long established ties to political elites coming out of Montreal.

This is probably the end of Porter too. I expect fares out of the GTA to skyrocket if that happens.

And ironically, avoiding expansion means bulldozing pristine farmland in Pickering to build a new airport there.....
 
YYZFAN
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:47 pm

Quoting rampbro (Reply 5):
I'm trying to find ways to understand this decision as a product of the citizen lobby

Many downtown councillors have advocated against commercial air service, let alone jets. It's an issue they have used to rally support, and the NIMBY vote is strong on the island and in the core.

Which leads me to:

Quoting drgmobile (Reply 9):
I don't understand what this even means. "Risking Toronto." Are you suggesting public opinion in the city is against the airport expansion? If so, do you have data to support this?

It means that several Liberal candidates in the recent federal election (the loudest being Adam Vaughan), promised to ensure no expanded runway or jet service at the airport by not opening up the TPP agreement. The data is in a recent letter sent from Adam Vaughan to a local councillor reiterating the Liberal position. You can find it posted on the Twitter account of the advocacy group No Jets TO. I never said the entire city was against it, but a key topic in several downtown Liberal ridings was the island airport. Many city councillors were also involved with this group.

Quoting drgmobile (Reply 9):
Also, "the island is a surprisingly strong lobby." The island is a mound of dirt that rises out of the Lake. Who are you referring to? The anti-jet lobby?

The citizens that live on that island are a fairly strong lobby considering they live on the lake. The ani-jet lobby has strong support and foundation from the island.


Not to be condescending, but if you paid any attention to the airport disucssions happening in Toronto the past few years, you wouldn't be asking any of these questions.
 
rampbro
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:30 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 10):
This is probably the end of Porter too.

I doubt that very much. It may mean the end of growth at Porter, but I don't think they shutter the airline because their growth strategy didn't pan out.

Quoting YYZFAN (Reply 11):
Many downtown councillors have advocated against commercial air service, let alone jets. It's an issue they have used to rally support, and the NIMBY vote is strong on the island and in the core.

Sure, but activism and citizen support does not a decision make. Maybe this is deep cynicism after a decade of Harper but I fully expected the decision to go the other way, in favour of increased transportation links and the associated positive impacts to Toronto.
 
unityofsaints
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:33 pm

Quoting Beatyair (Reply 2):
They are risking Toronto.

Absolutely agree. These sorts of agreements should be made around the dBA of planes, not the engine type.
 
planemaker
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 2:22 am

Quoting YYZFAN (Reply 11):
The citizens that live on that island are a fairly strong lobby considering they live on the lake. The ani-jet lobby has strong support and foundation from the island.

That is what people fail to grasp... the airport is an issue that affects them everyday. To use a euphemism, to them they feel that they are under siege and have the "to the ramparts" motivation. Those who support that airport expansion (aprat from Porter employees and aviation enthusiasts) are not in the least bit passionate about the issue. It is nice to have but, meh, they still have turboprop service from the airport and can go out to Pearson for their longer haul flights with a negligible time difference.

Quoting rampbro (Reply 12):
I doubt that very much. It may mean the end of growth at Porter, but I don't think they shutter the airline because their growth strategy didn't pan out.

It will be interesting what happens next. The investors in Porter did not invest to receive profit sharing cheques, hence the two attempts for an IPO.

Quoting rampbro (Reply 12):
Sure, but activism and citizen support does not a decision make.

When one side is passionate about the issue while the other is indifferent... the decision is made for you.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
unityofsaints
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 2:48 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 14):
can go out to Pearson for their longer haul flights with a negligible time difference.

Not in my book - I visited Toronto as a tourist in 2012 without a car and my semi-downtown accommodation was 20 minutes from YTZ but easily 1.5 hours from YYZ via public transport! Besides that, travelling to the airport via historic tram and "the shortest ferry in the world" is way more fun than boring old metro and bus.
 
YYZAMS
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 2:58 am

The end of Porter? really?

I am sure Porter will continue to grow and do well. My money is that they will take Cseries and operate them elsewhere for now. It is a just a waiting game for them to get into the island. The island airport has been there before a lot of those high rises and those buying and living on the island all knew and know about the island.

The continued argument of NOJETS TO and other uninformed people say is "just fly out of YYZ with the CSeries" but they fail to realize that YYZ is the top 5 most expensive landing fees in the world. If it were that easy they would.

It is sad that Toronto is destined to become one of the top financial cities in the world but too afraid to expand and support Canadian industries. I don't think this is over just yet....only put on hold. THere are many ways around it.
 
planemaker
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 3:52 am

Quoting unityofsaints (Reply 15):
Not in my book - I visited Toronto as a tourist in 2012 without a car and my semi-downtown accommodation was 20 minutes from YTZ but easily 1.5 hours from YYZ via public transport!

That was then. Now there is 25 minute public transit from Pearson to Union Station.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
Thomaas
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 4:03 am

I don't see a case for a larger YTZ. Is it convenient ? Yes. Is it necessary ? No. There is no reason to expand YTZ when you have the airport with world class facilities like YYZ that has room to expand. The only reason why LCY and LGA prosper is because their main airports are dysfunctional, LHR has severe growth limitations as well as slot issues and the traffic at both JFK and EWR is constrained because of the airspace. World class cities don't build airports on their waterfronts, they make them more livable for people to take ownership of them and change the face of the city. With the new Union-Pearson Express, YYZ is the most accessible its ever been. Cities like HKG, SIN, DEL, AMS, FRA are all economically vibrant and that with only one airport.
 
solarflyer22
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 4:21 am

Quoting unityofsaints (Reply 13):
Absolutely agree. These sorts of agreements should be made around the dBA of planes, not the engine type

Yeah, I mean I don't see the harm in allowing in a quieter aircraft and extending the runway a bit. Even the loud flights you can limit to between 11AM and 2PM or just have a handful.

Its a very convenient airport though definitely worth keeping and upgrading a little.
 
EnviroTO
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 4:33 am

Quoting YYZAMS (Reply 16):
The island airport has been there before a lot of those high rises and those buying and living on the island all knew and know about the island.

On the opposite argument Porter started service on the island knowing that the airport did not have a bridge, that the runway was only so long, and that it was on the edge of a growing high-rise residential area. So both have the same right to status quo.

Quoting YYZAMS (Reply 16):
The continued argument of NOJETS TO and other uninformed people say is "just fly out of YYZ with the CSeries" but they fail to realize that YYZ is the top 5 most expensive landing fees in the world. If it were that easy they would.

It has those landing fees not because of where it is located but because of the federal government's arrangement with the airport to claw back revenues and the cost of the airport improvements. The island airport is land which is more valuable so if all costs of runway expansion, terminal expansion, and similar revenue claw backs were in place one would expect the fees to be similar if not more expensive, especially if property tax was paid.

Quoting YYZAMS (Reply 16):
It is sad that Toronto is destined to become one of the top financial cities in the world but too afraid to expand and support Canadian industries. I don't think this is over just yet....only put on hold. THere are many ways around it.

Hong Kong had a downtown airport. It moved. It is still a financial capital. Toronto will survive with or without 90 seat prop planes landing on the waterfront.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:15 am

Quoting YYZFAN (Reply 11):
(the loudest being Adam Vaughan)

...and it's looking like he won't be getting a cabinet post, as was previously thought, so he probably won't have as much pull with Trudeau Jr, as he thought.

In politics, "no" usually means, "no, for now". Good politicians never burn bridges. Trudeau never needed Toronto Island to get his majority...but he did need Quebec, (which happens to be his home province), and as we've seen, Quebec will continue to support BBD.

If Porter plays their cards right, may still be able to get the runway extension to maximize their route structure by allowing the Q400's to operate at MTOW, which might put the airline in the position of purchasing a few more Q's, putting some more cash into Toronto's coffers. Then, getting jets down the road won't involve much more than a few signatures, since the infrastructure would already be in place.
What the...?
 
planemaker
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 2:00 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 21):
...and it's looking like he won't be getting a cabinet post, as was previously thought, so he probably won't have as much pull with Trudeau Jr, as he thought.

There are other Toronto Liberal MPs in addition to Vaughan that are against airport expansion...

Quote:
Nine Toronto Liberal MPs — including Adam Vaughan, Carolyn Bennett and Chrystia Freeland — informed city council of the party's position in a June 4 letter.

"The Liberal Party's policies on the waterfront are as clear as they are forward looking," the letter said.

The expansion is DOA.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
cloudboy
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 2:03 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 17):

That was then. Now there is 25 minute public transit from Pearson to Union Station.

Still costs $53 round trip, which is better than the $100 round trip taxi.

Is this going to kill Toronto? No. But there will be two side effects. Number one Toronto is never going to grow it's tourism sector when it is so hard and expensive to get there. even if you do miraculously figure out how to find the train, you still pay a fortune for it, and have to navigate Union station to boot. Second, the reality is that Porter's success really relied on its potential for growth, not its current performance. That has now been dealt a serious blow. Air Canada will now never see Porter as a real threat, and as a result prices are going to go up. Toronto is already too expensive to get to, and there is no further incentive for prices to come down.

It will be a while before the effects begin to be seen, and probably more before all the excuses are seen through. But that only hurts Toronto all the more, as it will be a while before they look to fix the situation. Which is too bad since Toronto was just beginning to pop up on the American tourist and small business radar.
"Six becoming three doesn't create more Americans that want to fly." -Adam Pilarski
 
ytz
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 2:18 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 17):
That was then. Now there is 25 minute public transit from Pearson to Union Station.

The price of the Union Pearson Express and the travel time does not outweigh the convenience of YTZ though. Especially with the new tunnel.

On the flip side, PD will really have to work on a plan to be a stronger regional carrier after this blow.
 
YXXMIKE
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 2:28 pm

I just don't see this as dead in the water yet and certainly believe that there are legs to this which could push it through the courts. Though it certainly depends on how much Deluce & Co are willing to spend on pushing it through the courts if that's what they so wished. That and with a loonie which is going to get crushed even further and a Canadian economy which is certainly looking a bit dodgy at the moment a runway development and expansion at YTZ along with some nice Canadian built planes couldn't be terrible for the economy....
 
planemaker
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 2:28 pm

Quoting cloudboy (Reply 23):
Second, the reality is that Porter's success really relied on its potential for growth, not its current performance.

When Porter was launched there was not even a thought of jets and the investors' goals were a quick IPO and cash out before Porter plateaued. Porter has looked at an IPO twice, once even going to market, and failed. Trying to get jets onto the island was a last gasp play to be able to generate some growth that would make an IPO successful.

Quoting cloudboy (Reply 23):
Air Canada will now never see Porter as a real threat

Porter was never "a real threat", even if the 12 jets had been allowed at the island.

Quoting YTZ" class="quote" target="_blank">YTZ (Reply 24):
The price of the Union Pearson Express and the travel time does not outweigh the convenience of YTZ though. Especially with the new tunnel.

No one doubts that but it is a marginal factor in the overall picture.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
planemaker
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 2:34 pm

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 25):
I just don't see this as dead in the water yet and certainly believe that there are legs to this which could push it through the courts.

There is no basis for any legal action.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
YXXMIKE
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 2:43 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 27):
There is no basis for any legal action.

I'm not sure what the federal courts in Tuvalu are like but in Canada it appears almost anything can be pushed through the courts...I stand by the statement, this isn't dead in the water yet.
 
ytz
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 3:03 pm

Quoting EnviroTO (Reply 20):
Toronto will survive with or without 90 seat prop planes landing on the waterfront.

Survive sure. But sometimes I think my naive downtown neighbours don't get economics. If Porter moves to YYZ it's dead, because the GTAA won't go out of their way to support them at Air Canada's "global hub". And if PD goes, airfare will go up. What does that do to Toronto's position as a regional economic hub if the price of connectivity skyrockets? Transport Canada's own data shows how much airfares have dropped in the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal triangle since PD showed up. Why do people think this trend is not reversible if PD is gone?

I'd agree with shutting YTZ if there was High Speed Rail to Ottawa and Montreal (at a minimum). Even then, the loss of connectivity from the downtown core to New York and Chicago is bound to have some economic impact. The Union-Pearson Express is just not as convenient or time-efficient.....

In any event, if citizens in my hometown are determined to shoot themselves in the foot....they'll soon find out that it's hard to pay the bills when you build an economy on selling condos to each other on funny money from the central bank (read: quantitative easing and ZIRP.....). Let's get rid of YTZ and turn that into an utterly unproductive park (because somehow there's a lack of that on the Islands or elsewhere in the downtown core). And heck, let's pave over Downsview and put some more condos there too (been proposed recently....I work in the Downsview area....). It's not like we need manufacturing jobs or non-finance service sector employment, Torontonians can all be realtors and mortgage agents!

Quoting cloudboy (Reply 23):
Air Canada will now never see Porter as a real threat, and as a result prices are going to go up. Toronto is already too expensive to get to, and there is no further incentive for prices to come down.

Exactly. But we Canadians are an extremely naive lot. Witness how easily the Big 3 telcos convinced so many Canadians to campaign against the entry of big-bad Verizon. We're paying the highest telecom bills in the Western world (in addition to high airfares), and people think Verizon was the problem.....

Quoting cloudboy (Reply 23):
It will be a while before the effects begin to be seen, and probably more before all the excuses are seen through. But that only hurts Toronto all the more, as it will be a while before they look to fix the situation. Which is too bad since Toronto was just beginning to pop up on the American tourist and small business radar.

Toronto is already too expensive for any sort of serious small-medium sized business. There's a reason you build startups in Hamilton or Waterloo, etc. And as a tourist destination, despite what Torontonians tell themselves, the city is boring to anybody who isn't Canadian. The majority of tourists are really VFR traffic. There aren't too many people saying, "I really, really must go to Toronto next weekend....." And if they are, most of them are probably not American. And with air fares going up (if PD is out), even fewer of them will be American.....
 
brilondon
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 3:12 pm

Quoting rampbro (Reply 5):
And Pearson has onerous landing fees.

They have been reduced in recent years to make it more competitive. YYZ was losing a lot of traffic to the U.S. airports in BUF and DTW as well as people going to YUL and YOW for international flights.

Quoting rampbro (Reply 5):

This is a shame. I think there's a bigger play going on here with Bombardier, and my suspicion is that it involves rail travel as opposed to air travel.

Well the previous Liberal government tried to destroy VIA Rail but it still has no friends in the government.

Quoting yowza (Reply 6):
'm fuzzy on the details but if memory serves, the extension required something like 400 meters. If that was all built on the west side that would all but close up access to two yacht clubs and would take the runway right to the foot of Ontario Place. Less than ideal to say the least. There must be a way to get this to work but there are too many cooks in the kitchen.

Why don't they expand it into the Harbour to the east 400m?

Quoting drgmobile (Reply 9):

I don't understand what this even means. "Risking Toronto." Are you suggesting public opinion in the city is against the airport expansion? If so, do you have data to support this?
Quoting drgmobile (Reply 9):

Also, "the island is a surprisingly strong lobby." The island is a mound of dirt that rises out of the Lake. Who are you referring to? The anti-jet lobby? Ports Toronto is a proponent of the change.
Quoting YTZ (Reply 10):

And ironically, avoiding expansion means bulldozing pristine farmland in Pickering to build a new airport there.....

The Airport in Pickering is not going to happen in the next 50 years. YYZ has plenty of expansion opportunities and don't think that it would compete with an airport in Pickering because the government would have to approve of the said changes and they won't.

The residents of the condos in the harbour area are very affluent and have a lot of political power not only locally but provincially and federally as well. There is no way it is ever going to happen.
Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
 
skymiler
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 3:33 pm

Quoting Thomaas (Reply 18):
With the new Union-Pearson Express, YYZ is the most accessible its ever been.

Maybe for a very few ... The Pearson express only addresses a minor portion of the travelers -- those in downtown TO.

As someone who goes to Hamilton and Kingston very often I avoid YYZ like the plague and use either BUF or SYR. I can spend more time jammed up on the QEW between YYZ and Hamilton going 10 kmh, or even stopped than I can by driving from BUF.

I also find YYZ very awkward (try existing from a US flight and schlepping to find the rental cars) and the US departure side can be very slow and then crowded near the gates.

I agree that YTZ may not help me, but for many others it is a boon ..
I love to fly, and it shows!
 
ytz
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 3:36 pm

Quoting brilondon (Reply 30):
YYZ has plenty of expansion opportunities and don't think that it would compete with an airport in Pickering because the government would have to approve of the said changes and they won't.

I never said anything about competing with YYZ. It's the GTAA itself that will build and manage any Pickering airport. They aren't about to compete with themselves. But they'll be considering reliever functions. Heck, Metrolinx even has drawings where they can extend some of the planned future GO lines in that area to the airport...

Quoting brilondon (Reply 30):
The Airport in Pickering is not going to happen in the next 50 years.

I disagree. Buttonville is going away. Markham and Oshawa are getting hemmed in by development. If YTZ shuts down, you can all but guarantee that Pickering will happen. As it is, I'd say they might build Pickering as a GenAv reliever in the next 10-20 years. But if YTZ goes, I think they'll build a mini-commercial airport and sooner.

My parents live in northeast Scarborough. They even got notices about some kind of consultation process on the airport a while back.
 
planemaker
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 4:02 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 29):
What does that do to Toronto's position as a regional economic hub if the price of connectivity skyrockets?

Skyrocket? Like what? Because no PD jets fares are going to go up 500%... 1000%?

Quoting brilondon (Reply 30):
The residents of the condos in the harbour area are very affluent and have a lot of political power not only locally but provincially and federally as well. There is no way it is ever going to happen.

It was already an uphill struggle with both Ford and Harper in favour of PD getting jets. With the Liberal government, and specifically Toronto MPs, stating categorically that there will be no jets at the island, it is quite funny that people are still insisting the opposite.

Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 28):
in Canada it appears almost anything can be pushed through the courts...I stand by the statement,

There is absolutely no legal basis for Porter to launch legal action... that is a fact. The tripartite agreement has been in place a couple of decades before PD started operations. Certainly PD can launch a legal action (anyone can do foolish things) but they are not going to waste money on a frivolous legal action that wouldn't even reach the courts.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
ytz
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 4:19 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 33):
Skyrocket? Like what? Because no PD jets fares are going to go up 500%... 1000%?

I forget the exact amount. But I believe TC data had shown fares down 20-30% because of the PD as the third player. I am not saying no PD jets will reverse this. I am saying PD disappearing, which is a distinct possibility if they can't expand, might reverse these recent savings.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 33):
With the Liberal government, and specifically Toronto MPs, stating categorically that there will be no jets at the island, it is quite funny that people are still insisting the opposite.

Agree with this. There's no way a government will overrule several of its MPs in a vote and finance rich area. If it were just Adam Vaughan, it might have gone the other way.
 
planemaker
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 4:38 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 34):
I forget the exact amount. But I believe TC data had shown fares down 20-30% because of the PD as the third player.

It would be quite interesting to see the actual amount. The capacity and competition between Air Canada and West Jet in the Eastern Triangle is quite significant.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 34):
I am saying PD disappearing, which is a distinct possibility if they can't expand, might reverse these recent savings.

I don't see PD "disappearing", but some significant re-structuring is a distinct possibility.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 6:01 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 22):
The expansion is DOA.

At one point, the same groups were against Porter, or any commercial aircraft, using YTZ at all. Porter overcame those opponents.

The "too noisy and unsafe" voices couldn't keep the Q400's out of Bishop. Porter got the tunnel build and the terminal expanded, also against noisy objections.

A 'NO' today, doesn't necessarily mean 'NO' forever...at least for a longer runway.
What the...?
 
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yyz717
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:20 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 34):
Quoting planemaker (Reply 33):
With the Liberal government, and specifically Toronto MPs, stating categorically that there will be no jets at the island, it is quite funny that people are still insisting the opposite.

Agree with this. There's no way a government will overrule several of its MPs in a vote and finance rich area. If it were just Adam Vaughan, it might have gone the other way.

This is not just about Adam Vaughan. You have polls consistently showing a majority of Torontonians supporting expansion. You also have about 30 of the 44 Toronto City councillors at leastly nominally supportive. Any decision has to accommodate or address this. You also have the Montreal area MP's (mostly Liberal) whose residents work at Bombardier in YMX and will lose jobs (or work hours) if the PD CS100 contract is killed.

So there are many interested parties on both sides of the issue. This has not changed.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
ytz
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 8:11 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 37):
This has not changed.

Sadly, I'd concede that politics matter more than facts. It's not just Adam Vaughan that decided to sign his name on to a letter to the mayor saying there will be no discussion on the tripartite. It is what it is.

It'll be interesting to see how the government navigates the potential of job losses with this pledge not to expand the airport though. Perhaps more federal aid?
 
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Polot
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 8:23 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 35):
I don't see PD "disappearing", but some significant re-structuring is a distinct possibility.

PD is, long term, going to have to re-structure no matter what the outcome of YTZ is. Everyone is acting like opening YTZ up to jets would be transforming the airport into say DFW: PD would still hit a significant wall in expansion when it comes to terminal and parking space (those CS100s are a lot larger than the Q400 when it comes to wingspan). Destinations further away might help the finances some, but at the end of the day PD needs to open up another hub at a less physically constrained airport if it ever wants to be more than a minor bit player.
 
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yyz717
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:56 pm

Quoting YTZ" class="quote" target="_blank">YTZ (Reply 38):
Quoting yyz717 (Reply 37):
This has not changed.


Sadly, I'd concede that politics matter more than facts. It's not just Adam Vaughan that decided to sign his name on to a letter to the mayor saying there will be no discussion on the tripartite. It is what it is.

It'll be interesting to see how the government navigates the potential of job losses with this pledge not to expand the airport though. Perhaps more federal aid?

Agreed.

Quoting Polot (Reply 39):
at the end of the day PD needs to open up another hub at a less physically constrained airport if it ever wants to be more than a minor bit player.

Agree. PD is already gate-constrained at YTZ according to some press, so even allowing the CS-100 and runway expension would seemingly lead to another round of required terminal expansion. You're probably right that, with or without the CS100, PD needs to expand beyond YTZ. As it stands now, PD is static....they have 26 Q400's and have not added any new aircraft since 2011, nor have any on firm order. Without the CS100 and the longer runway, there is no indication that PD can gain anymore slots at YTZ.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
ytz
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:04 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 39):

An excellent point. But it's a bit chicken and egg. The jets would have allowed them to at least grow profitability before building another hub. But of course, if they don't open another, they are going to have a tough time growing profitability.

It's too big a risk for them to start building another (say at YHM) before growing profitability. And there's no way their investors would sink in more without knowing that there was at least runway expansion coming (even if no jets are allowed).
 
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Polot
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:15 pm

Quoting YTZ" class="quote" target="_blank">YTZ (Reply 41):
An excellent point. But it's a bit chicken and egg. The jets would have allowed them to at least grow profitability before building another hub. But of course, if they don't open another, they are going to have a tough time growing profitability.

But that is also making the assumption that PD could have grown profitably at YTZ with the C series. The C series does open up more destinations so more profit potential, but of course will also raise PD's costs.

PD is in a tough position...and is a example of why airlines who business's model consist of "we will offer flights at this undeserved but extremely constrained airport" rarely get off the ground. See California Pacific, and I have a lot of doubts about Odyssey (although LCY is not undeserved) as all they ever talk about is LCY but LCY can't handle 10 CS100s + BA's 2 A318s.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:00 pm

So far, other than hearing from the usual players, there has been no official announcement regarding jets at YTZ. The new minister of transportation, Marc Garneau, has yet to make the official position of the new federal government known. In the meantime, the environmental assessment by Ports Toronto has not been cancelled.

I still think that the longer runway may still be an option even if the jets are cancelled, which would still benefit Porter by allowing the Q400's to either carry more fuel or more passengers.


http://www.thestar.com/business/2015...cost-cutting-lower-fuel-costs.html

Quote:
Porter Airlines has been pushing for the approval of jets, but city council deferred any decision on the eve of the 2014 municipal election. Instead, PortsToronto has embarked on a series of studies including a runway design and environmental assessment and says it still plans to complete the work.
What the...?
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:26 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 43):
I still think that the longer runway may still be an option even if the jets are cancelled, which would still benefit Porter by allowing the Q400's to either carry more fuel or more passengers


what sectors are payload limited for the Q400 out of YTZ ?
 
A346Dude
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:50 pm

I don't have performance numbers for the Q400 out of YTZ, but I know there can be fuel stops to YQT with a full pax load.
You know the gear is up and locked when it takes full throttle to taxi to the terminal.
 
ytz
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Fri Nov 06, 2015 3:59 am

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 44):
what sectors are payload limited for the Q400 out of YTZ ?

YTZ-YHZ for one. Could probably do YWG and MCO with a longer runway. Better tie up with B6....
 
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yyz717
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Fri Nov 06, 2015 4:26 pm

Quoting YTZ" class="quote" target="_blank">YTZ (Reply 46):

YTZ-YHZ for one

YTZ-YHZ/YQM are operated nonstop in the winter only. The new YTZ-Melbourne is limited to 50 seats southbound.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
N1120A
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Fri Nov 06, 2015 6:20 pm

Quoting rampbro (Reply 5):
....which already exists in Toronto, very close to the airport.

Which isn't all that relevant given scale.

Quoting rampbro (Reply 5):
I think it's that plus what are you gonna do with 30 million pax/year in the 3-4 years it will take to build a new airport or expand an existing one.

Without much extra expansion, you could add approximately 45 million to the combination of JFK and EWR, simply by closing LGA.

Quoting cloudboy (Reply 23):
Number one Toronto is never going to grow it's tourism sector when it is so hard and expensive to get there

It isn't hard to get there and it isn't THAT expensive. Los Angeles certainly doesn't have a problem with it's tourism sector, and it is faster from YYZ to downtown Toronto than LAX to downtown Los Angeles.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 30):
They have been reduced in recent years to make it more competitive. YYZ was losing a lot of traffic to the U.S. airports in BUF and DTW as well as people going to YUL and YOW for international flights.

Not only that, but general shifts in competitive pressures have changed the way fares are charged on transborder flights. I haven't flown into BUF in over a year, mostly because fares are basically the same as YYZ now.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
INFINITI329
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RE: Trudeau Gov't Confirms No Jets @ YTZ

Fri Nov 06, 2015 6:55 pm

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 40):
there is no indication that PD can gain anymore slots at YTZ.

There aren't any more slots to gain at YTZ to my knowledge. Between PD & AC they have them all.

Quoting YTZ" class="quote" target="_blank">YTZ (Reply 46):
Better tie up with B6....

Already done via BOS. PD should enquire of about starting JFK service to link up with B6 there as well.

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