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su184
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Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:16 am

After reading the thread about Virgin ever taking delivery of the A380 and before that the collapse of Transaero, there are no current orders for the A380 that would go to a new operator, the backlog is mainly dominated by Emirates with occasional small numbers for other airlines completing their previously placed orders, so as it stands now there are no new operators unless we have new orders coming. Might see a Saudia or Turkish order to change the rhythm at TLS.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:22 am

Word is on the street that SV might order A380s at the upcoming Dubai air show.
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:23 am

I've always suspected EY and QR have ordered too few A380s for carriers of their ambitions. So maybe them.
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su184
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:25 am

Read about it also, hope it materializes soon with others
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:06 am

G'day

Quoting Spiderguy252 (Reply 2):
QR have ordered too few A380s

Is that the reason QR # 7 has been mothballed and the building of QR # 8 has apparently been postponed indefinitely?
  

I'd rather see DL jumping on board taking those Skymark and Transaero examples   


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KarelXWB
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:10 pm

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 4):
QR # 8 has apparently been postponed indefinitely?

Yesterday QR #8 was spotted in pre-assembly.

http://digitalairliners.com/toulouse...r-xfw-3rd-november-2015-1450-1840/
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:13 pm

Who's taking the Skymark frames?
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:50 pm

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 4):
Is that the reason QR # 7 has been mothballed and the building of QR # 8 has apparently been postponed indefinitely?

Any source for that indefinite postponement you mentioned? Seems to be going through assembly as planned.
Wouldn't read too much into the mothballing - may just be a deferred delivery so #7 and #8 (which would have been a 2016 delivery in any case I believe) arrive together.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 6):
Who's taking the Skymark frames?

That's the $700m (pre discounts) question, of course.

Add to that one the following questions with appropriate monetary values attached:
1) What's going to happen to VS's 6 A380s (cf Any News Regarding VS's A380 Order? (by United Airline Oct 31 2015 in Civil Aviation))
2) Where are those 20 Amedeo birds going to end up?
3) What about Transaero's A380s (and 747s, for that matter), and those 10 Undisclosed A380s (ex Hong Kong Airlines)?
4) Beyond the rumoured SV deal, what other sales campaigns is Airbus working on for the A380? TK has been rumoured for ages, but since moved into "believe it when I see it" territory for myself.

The answers to none of the above are helped, of course, by the constant rumours about an A380NEO potentially, or maybe not, getting launched any time soon-ish. Better wait and see before committing to the last few A380CEOs off the line without getting "last off the line" discounts. Nor are the sales campaigns helped by the FUD spread (not least during Airbus' investor days last year) implying that if NEO doesn't happen, the line may get shut down before too long.

Fast forward 12-18 months and I expect we'll know the answers to at least 3 out of those 5 questions above, plus the question what the story is with that rumoured NEO thing...
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tortugamon
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:01 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 7):
TK has been rumoured for ages

I think that one has been put to bed:

"“It’s a nice airplane, but I need frequencies,” Kotil said Tuesday in an interview at the Paris Air Show, adding that Turkish Air -- or Turk Hava Yollari AO -- is no longer looking at using A380s deemed surplus to requirement by Malaysian."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...aysia-a380s-as-routes-the-priority

Quoting anfromme (Reply 7):
Any source for that indefinite postponement you mentioned?

I would love a source for that as well.

tortugamon
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:30 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 7):
Any source for that indefinite postponement you mentioned? Seems to be going through assembly as planned.
Wouldn't read too much into the mothballing - may just be a deferred delivery so #7 and #8 (which would have been a 2016 delivery in any case I believe) arrive together.

Perhaps they just wait for the new business class seat to arrive.

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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:06 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 8):
I think that one has been put to bed:

"“It’s a nice airplane, but I need frequencies,” Kotil said Tuesday in an interview at the Paris Air Show, adding that Turkish Air -- or Turk Hava Yollari AO -- is no longer looking at using A380s deemed surplus to requirement by Malaysian."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ority

Strictly speaking, he was only talking about the potential of leasing some or all of MH's A380s. But you're right - his statements don't exactly make it sound like they're a likely customer any time soon. Quite contrary to previous statements - as recently as February 2015 - by the way, where he indicated some sort of purchase decision of 747-8i vs A380 sector was imminent.
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tortugamon
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:10 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 10):
Strictly speaking, he was only talking about the potential of leasing some or all of MH's A380s. But you're right - his statements don't exactly make it sound like they're a likely customer any time soon. Quite contrary to previous statements - as recently as February 2015 - by the way, where he indicated some sort of purchase decision of 747-8i vs A380 sector was imminent.

Completely agree. I think we will see more A330s and 777ceos personally. Surely an A350/787 order is coming at some point but it just seems to keep getting pushed back.

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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Fri Nov 06, 2015 4:09 pm

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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:01 pm

Quoting Spiderguy252 (Reply 2):
I've always suspected EY and QR have ordered too few A380s for carriers of their ambitions.

Huh? QR seems to be struggling and EY requires far more connections. The reality is, the EK figured out the A380 with nearly unlimited connections to fill each one. QR makes a lot more noise than they do money...

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 4):
Is that the reason QR # 7 has been mothballed and the building of QR # 8 has apparently been postponed indefinitely?

We all know its the carpet certification.     

Yea... QR seems to have 'bigger eyes than their stomach."

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 8):
Quoting anfromme (Reply 7):
TK has been rumoured for ages

I think that one has been put to bed:

Yea... and I'm one of the ones who thinks the A380 would work for TK. But when you have a strategy that works... KEEP TO IT! So no A380s for TK. At least until after the new IST airport.  

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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sun Nov 08, 2015 12:14 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 13):
So no A380s for TK. At least until after the new IST airport.

That could make them a serious possible customer for the also possible A380-neo, if it will see the light of day.  
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sun Nov 08, 2015 4:57 pm

"Two potential customers are actively looking at ordering the double-decker, Airbus sales chief John Leahy said in a briefing at the Dubai Air Show, with one interested in as many as 20 aircraft and the other, in around 10 to 12."

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2015/11/09/2003632001

Let's assume 10 -12 is for Saudia.

Who is the 20 for - maybe China???

[Edited 2015-11-08 09:26:58]
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sun Nov 08, 2015 5:11 pm

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 15):

Leahy has been saying a new customer will come on board for the last 5 years yet nothing ever materializes. He is a salesman true and true.
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sun Nov 08, 2015 5:44 pm

I just read that Royal Air Maroc may be interested in the A380, really?

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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sun Nov 08, 2015 5:47 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 17):
I just read that Royal Air Maroc may be interested in the A380, really?

Their lone 747 is almost 23 years old so there might be a spot open for one of the Skymark airplanes there.
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sun Nov 08, 2015 5:59 pm

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 15):
Who is the 20 for - maybe China???

I can't imagine who'd be wanting 20 other than the Chinese airlines (split amongst several). No European carriers that I can think of. South America? Doubt it. How about this as a pot stirrer - UA or DL? Maybe one of them changed their minds about their future VLA needs after their 744's are gone. That's a long, long looooong shot I know.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 17):
I just read that Royal Air Maroc may be interested in the A380, really?

There was a story a while back that they were looking at one or two A380's or 748's. They do have a 744 that is getting long in the tooth, so maybe it makes sense.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 12):
Looks like SV could use 10 A380s.

Been hearing this for a while, was told by folks in DXB that it could happen at the Dubai Air Show.
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sun Nov 08, 2015 6:48 pm

More importantly I wonder how many A380's Airbus is now forecasting to sell over the life of the program. IIRC they once forecast around 1500 frames being sold over the life of the program. Even if they launch the A380NEO, do they still think they will be even remotely close to that number?
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sun Nov 08, 2015 6:50 pm

While TK and SV has to be the main candidates for these orders, I still think that CX could make great use of A380.

Possibly the potential order for 20 is for A380neo, which in that case could attract CX enough to finally sign up..
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sun Nov 08, 2015 8:26 pm

Dubai, The Telegraaf.nl mentioned today that 2 airlines showed interest in ordering 32 aircrafts in total.

http://www.telegraaf.nl/dft/bedrijve...=referral&utm_campaign=twitterfeed
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sun Nov 08, 2015 9:49 pm

Quoting ER757 (Reply 19):
I can't imagine who'd be wanting 20 other than the Chinese airlines (split amongst several).

Well we know China Southern can't profitably operate the 5 they have now, so not them.

I've always thought that China should make a play for PVG or PEK to become an EK-like megahub. China has no problem subsidizing transportation systems generally; no reason for airlines to be an exception.

Either or both locations could aggregate the massive Chinese market onto VLA's, while the PRC has been liberalising its transit visa policies in recent years and could take a big share of SEAsian transit traffic. Even connect West Coast USA to India, stealing some of that traffic from the ME3.

China Eastern has only 9 77W's with 11 more on order. Only other widebodies are A330's. Surely the management and the authorities envision a much bigger TPAC role than the current backlog presages.

Municipal governments in China are willing to subsidize long haul, though not sure Shanghai or Beijing do this. So China Eastern or its rival in Beijing could probably afford a few years of unprofitable operation as it scales up long haul ops. Each hub already has huge domestic feeder network. Traffic would be lower-yield but, again, profitability need not be the focus, especially at first.

If the potential 20 order is real, it's gotta be China.

But Leahy has basically zero credibility by now regarding the A380. He's been promising new orders and customers for years and never fails to fail.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sun Nov 08, 2015 10:07 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 23):
But Leahy has basically zero credibility by now regarding the A380. He's been promising new orders and customers for years and never fails to fail.

In one thread I went back year by year and found the same quote over and over, including this year. Crying wolf. I do think the Saudia order will happen at some point though.

tortugamon
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sun Nov 08, 2015 10:45 pm

I've just had lunch here in Fiji with my good friend Commodore Bainimarama. He thinks the A380 is just what Fiji Airways needs to boost Fijian tourism and restore his airlines fortunes. He asked me if I thought New York / Nadi could be a winner with complementary Kava rituals introduced to economy class
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Mon Nov 09, 2015 1:34 am

What routes do Saudia fly that are 1) non Hajj + 2) need anything approaching an A380?
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:13 am

Quoting irishpower (Reply 20):
More importantly I wonder how many A380's Airbus is now forecasting to sell over the life of the program. IIRC they once forecast around 1500 frames being sold over the life of the program. Even if they launch the A380NEO, do they still think they will be even remotely close to that number?

That number was for the total VLA market over 20 years, including freighters. They never assumed a 100% market share...
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:21 am

Quoting irishpower (Reply 20):
More importantly I wonder how many A380's Airbus is now forecasting to sell over the life of the program. IIRC they once forecast around 1500 frames being sold over the life of the program. Even if they launch the A380NEO, do they still think they will be even remotely close to that number

Airbus has released their global forecast 2015-2034 of which they forecast 1550 VLA's will be needed over the next 20 years

http://www.airbus.com/company/market...tx_maglisting_pi1%5BdocID%5D=86756
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:45 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 1):
Word is on the street that SV might order A380s at the upcoming Dubai air show.

According to BBC, any A380 orders in Dubai are "unlikely": http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34762905

"Airbus has admitted that new orders at the Dubai Airshow for its A380, the world's biggest aircraft, are unlikely."

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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:54 am

Also, this interesting article from the Wall Street Journal: http://www.wsj.com/articles/jet-deal...-fall-at-dubai-air-show-1447019856

Regarding the A380neo:

"Mr. Brégier said the Toulouse-based company was continuing to study the upgrade, but was in no rush to launch a development program that would require additional investment. The priority, he said, is building the current version of the A380, which has a list price of $428 million, more cheaply and garnering more deals.

Mr. Brégier signaled a new operator could place an order for A380 planes later this year."


-ir

[Edited 2015-11-09 01:01:36]
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aryonoco
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:02 am

For a plane of which less than 200 have been produced, and for which there are less than 300 orders in total, we sure do have our fair share of A380 threads here, don't we  

I'm not saying that's necessarily bad, I'm a fan of the bird myself, but we hadn't even finished discussing these very same subjects in the other A380 threads and a new one springs up.
 
billreid
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:38 am

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 31):

For a plane of which less than 200 have been produced, and for which there are less than 300 orders in total, we sure do have our fair share of A380 threads here, don't we  

Yes true.
Highest percentage of threads per frame of any bird manufactured.

What a financial disaster for AB! The focus should be on the A350, not a poor selling whale!
Even if the A380 breaks even the opportunity costs are way way too much for AB.
Think if all that time and energy had been placed in perfecting other aircraft rather than wasting gazillions of hours on a really poor seller that has really failed to bring added value to global travel.
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skipness1E
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Mon Nov 09, 2015 11:02 am

Quoting billreid (Reply 32):
Think if all that time and energy had been placed in perfecting other aircraft rather than wasting gazillions of hours on a really poor seller that has really failed to bring added value to global travel.

Think if it was possible to have made that accurate prediction back in the day....hindsight is 20/20.
I agree though, however impressive the passenger experiencemay be, it's day never really came for anyone beyond Emirates.
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Mon Nov 09, 2015 4:31 pm

Quoting billreid (Reply 32):
What a financial disaster for AB! The focus should be on the A350, not a poor selling whale!
Even if the A380 breaks even the opportunity costs are way way too much for AB.
Think if all that time and energy had been placed in perfecting other aircraft rather than wasting gazillions of hours on a really poor seller that has really failed to bring added value to global travel

And then to think that most of that could have been prevented if someone would have been brave enough to make a decision and spend say a mere $100 million on full roll out of CATIA V5 over all production centres. . .
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Jalap
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Mon Nov 09, 2015 6:39 pm

Quoting billreid (Reply 32):
Yes true.
Highest percentage of threads per frame of any bird manufactured.

What a financial disaster for AB! The focus should be on the A350, not a poor selling whale!
Even if the A380 breaks even the opportunity costs are way way too much for AB.
Think if all that time and energy had been placed in perfecting other aircraft rather than wasting gazillions of hours on a really poor seller that has really failed to bring added value to global travel.

Yet I guess every aviation enthousiast is happy they built the thing. Like we're happy Concorde was built. And the sole An225.

I curse the airlines for their obsession with frequency. Imagine the amount of 748's and A380's flying around today if frequency didn't matter that much. And the amount of airlines flying them. Like 747's back in the '80's. That is what gets people to go to airports and become spotters  
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:54 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 33):
Think if it was possible to have made that accurate prediction back in the day....hindsight is 20/20.I agree though, however impressive the passenger experiencemay be, it's day never really came for anyone beyond Emirates.

Seems to me there were many threads 'back in the day" with many folks doubting the business case. Remember Richard's great quote? "The A380 answers a question nobody asked" You had many plane enthusiasts grasping at any reason they could think of why it should be built, while most of the number's crowd doubted it would be a successful program.
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:17 pm

Quoting qf789 (Reply 28):
Airbus has released their global forecast 2015-2034 of which they forecast 1550 VLA's will be needed over the next 20 years

http://www.airbus.com/company/market...tx_maglisting_pi1%5BdocID%5D=86756

I think I must have read something about 2005 in which Airbus was predicting sales of 1250 VLA's 2006-2024. How 'small' does an aircraft have to be before it ceases to be a VLA in Airbus' eyes? I think a combination of about 300-350 x A380 / B748 were ordered 2005-2014. How many VLA's were ordered according to Airbus - just the A380's and B748's or do any 777's qualify as being VLA? It would be interesting to know how many widebodies meeting Airbus' VLA definition were sold in the 10 years.

Some interesting stats re: long haul in the Airbus forecast -

In 2014 90%+ of LH traffic (900,000 pax daily) left / passed through / arrived at 47 hubs
In 2034 95%+ of LH traffic (2,300,000 pax daily) will leave / pass through / arrive at 91 hubs

If traffic is THIS focussed on a few hubs, how come airlines have problems getting high load factors on A380 without diluting RSM? Seems to me it's just what is needed by airlines carrying 90%+ of long haul pax.
 
DavidByrne
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:28 pm

Quoting Jalap (Reply 35):
I curse the airlines for their obsession with frequency.

Ummm - surely it's a response to consumer demand! Carriers that operate less than daily on many routes don't stand a chance against others which operate daily, especially when it comes to business traffic. Curse the passengers for their obsession with frequency of you like . . . !
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:29 pm

Quoting racercoup (Reply 36):
Seems to me there were many threads 'back in the day" with many folks doubting the business case.

I do not know that it was "many" who doubted the business case back in the day. As one of the few who did it seemed like those of us who doubted the business case were in the extreme minority; and we sure needed thick skin then (and even now).

Have a great day,
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Fri Nov 13, 2015 2:59 am

Can it be that the A380 is suffering from a bit of mob psychology? Several airlines that might consider the A380 are concerned about the future viability of the program. They may not want to order an aircraft whose assembly line might shut down. Or they may not want to be first to order a re-engined version, so they sit by the sidelines to watch what competitors will do.
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anfromme
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Fri Nov 13, 2015 12:20 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 40):
Can it be that the A380 is suffering from a bit of mob psychology? Several airlines that might consider the A380 are concerned about the future viability of the program. They may not want to order an aircraft whose assembly line might shut down. Or they may not want to be first to order a re-engined version, so they sit by the sidelines to watch what competitors will do.

I don't think that's the only problem Airbus have had with the programme, but I think it's definitely a factor. Once the production issues were finally sorted and in the past, questions about the CEO's longevity were brought up by the A380's biggest fanboy who called for a NEO. And then Airbus shot themselves in the foot with those disastrous Investor Days last year.
Uncertainty about a programme's future can quite definitely influence buying decisions. I was working in a pre-sales role before (different industry), and any FUD, whether spread by competitors or the company's own mixed messages, definitely figured in discussions with customers and it takes some work to overcome them.

Quoting Jalap (Reply 35):
I curse the airlines for their obsession with frequency. Imagine the amount of 748's and A380's flying around today if frequency didn't matter that much.

I agree the market has spread out a bit over the last few years, leading to a trough in demand for VLAs.
. Partly because frequency was added, using smaller planes, partly because some more direct routes were offered from airports that previously couldn't support them, and partly because a 773ER was good enough for a lot of airlines to replace 747s.
But - I don't think this has done away with the concept of hubs, and classic hubs like LHR, CDG, AMS and FRA have still been showing lots of growth. I do think we'll reach a point where routes become thicker and frequency gets maxed out at more and more airports, especially in densely populated areas like pretty much all of Europe, where potential for physical growth (i.e. adding runways/terminals) is quite limited. Cases in point - LHR and FRA already see more A380 movements than most airports worldwide except DXB. And BER, despite not even having been opened yet, is already deemed too small by the time it starts operating. Similar story in Asia, where air traffic growth is expected two go way beyond what we'll see in Europe or the US.
With that in mind I do think there is going to be a market for VLAs over the next 20 years that's going to be bigger than what we've seen over the last 20 years. Whether it's going to fall in line with Airbus' 1550 prediction, though, I'm not sure. That also depends on your definition of "VLA", of course, which could arguably be applied to 779/A3511-sized aircraft if just going by the maximum number of seats.
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Fri Nov 13, 2015 1:28 pm

Quoting billreid (Reply 32):
Highest percentage of threads per frame of any bird manufactured.

....but when you factor in seat count.....
 
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Matt6461
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Fri Nov 13, 2015 3:41 pm

Quoting anfromme (Reply 41):
I do think we'll reach a point where routes become thicker and frequency gets maxed out

I believe this is a vastly overrated argument regarding widebody longhaul ops.
A big hub airport sees up to 2,000 movements per day, at least 1,000 for 2-runway hubs.

Even a huge intercontinental hub like HKG has only ~40 frequencies daily on 77W or larger routes - the only routes on which a VLA might feasibly be deployed.

Converting 40 daily 77W frequencies to A380's would save reduce daily movements by ~30: 2% of total movement movements give or take a point depending on the airport.

The overwhelming proportion of frequencies from even slot-restricted hubs are short-haul narrowbody movements.

It makes far more sense to upgauge these flights rather than upgauge your few very high-value long-haul fights, as marginal frequencies on well-served short-haul are less important and slot costs are a greater portion of trip cost.

On that logic we'd expect to see a move from A320/738 to A321/739, or moves from NB's to A330's (or MOM/NMA someday). And indeed we do.

The only situation in which slot constraints would motivate A380 upgauging would be some crazy fantasy where an airline tries to run the world's biggest hub while using only 2 runways. Even if that fantasy somehow occurred, I'd bet the airline would soon convince local authorities to build it a bigger airport to allow for greater frequency/capacity and more flexibility in fleet planning. With a new airport on the horizon, our fantasy airline might decide that it will no longer use A380's unless there is a compelling economic efficiency rationale for using such a giant plane. The airline would probably pressure Airbus to spend $billions to make the A380 more efficient, with the implicit threat that, absent such improvement, the airline would use different planes.

Outside of that fantasy, which obviously would never occur, I doubt any airline will base its long-haul widebody fleet mix on a slot-saving rationale.
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Fri Nov 13, 2015 4:00 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 43):
Converting 40 daily 77W frequencies to A380's would save reduce daily movements by ~30: 2% of total movement movements give or take a point depending on the airport.

Overall I agree with what you are saying, but you seem to be presuming all slots are equal, when we know of corner cases such as early-morning slots at LHR just after the curfew ends are more valuable than ones later in the day, etc. It won't undo the conclusion that airlines will buy VLAs just to save slots, but it does make it more likely that they will buy some VLAs to fill the most valuable slots.
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anfromme
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Fri Nov 13, 2015 4:06 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 43):
I believe this is a vastly overrated argument regarding widebody longhaul ops.
A big hub airport sees up to 2,000 movements per day, at least 1,000 for 2-runway hubs.

Even a huge intercontinental hub like HKG has only ~40 frequencies daily on 77W or larger routes - the only routes on which a VLA might feasibly be deployed.

That argument sort of goes against the 77W (and thus A350-1000 and 778/779) as well, though, doesn't it?

I also didn't say that VLAs are going to take over the world and replace all of those 777/A350/787/A330-sized planes. They'll still be occupying a niche. But I do think that niche will be bigger than it is today.
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Fri Nov 13, 2015 8:39 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 43):
Even a huge intercontinental hub like HKG has only ~40 frequencies daily on 77W or larger routes - the only routes on which a VLA might feasibly be deployed.

Converting 40 daily 77W frequencies to A380's would save reduce daily movements by ~30: 2% of total movement movements give or take a point depending on the airport.

The problem being, though, that those frequencies for the most part is lumped together around certain narrow windows. In order to arrive e.g. in Europe in the morning the departure time has to be around midnight. Those long intercontinental routes cannot be distributed evenly around the clock.
 
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PW100
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Fri Nov 13, 2015 10:40 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 43):
On that logic we'd expect to see a move from A320/738 to A321/739, or moves from NB's to A330's (or MOM/NMA someday). And indeed we do

So really, what you are saying that basically everything, from 100 seats to 400 seats will upgauge. But once we hit that "magical" 400 seats (or whatever number is seated in a 777), that sector is immune for the upgauge trend.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 43):
Even a huge intercontinental hub like HKG has only ~40 frequencies daily on 77W or larger routes - the only routes on which a VLA might feasibly be deployed

I think you are underestimating the number of flights that will upgauge from 330/772/787 towards 77W size.
There may be only like 40 77W or larger today (although I expect the number for HKG to be higher - even ignoring freighters), in 15 - 20 years that number could well rise towards 100 or more. Surely that would mean that 10 - 20 of those flights would be able to make the step towards A380.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 43):
Converting 40 daily 77W frequencies to A380's would save reduce daily movements by ~30: 2% of total movement movements give or take a point depending on the airport.

I think you could also approach this from a different perspective.
Although some flights can/will be combined into A380s to reduce daily movements, I think the vast majority (even today) of A380 flights are applied to increase capacity, without increasing number of flights.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 43):
Outside of that fantasy, which obviously would never occur, I doubt any airline will base its long-haul widebody fleet mix on a slot-saving rationale

You are probably correct, mostly. Though would not stop airlines increasing capacity on their flights, even when they are already operating the biggest twin today.

Rgds,
PW100

PS. I do enjoy reading most of your posts, as usually you (at least try to) bring a somewhat balanced view (well except off course for your A380 pet wing, but I'll give you that), but I feel that there was not much balance in this posting.
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Matt6461
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sat Nov 14, 2015 4:18 am

Quoting PW100 (Reply 47):
So really, what you are saying that basically everything, from 100 seats to 400 seats will upgauge. But once we hit that "magical" 400 seats (or whatever number is seated in a 777), that sector is immune for the upgauge trend.

Not at all. I didn't mention upgauging from A330 to 77W, for instance. I don't think that's a reasonable expectation for slot scarcity management either - not until/unless traffic is much much higher.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 47):
I think the vast majority (even today) of A380 flights are applied to increase capacity, without increasing number of flights.

That may be, but I was responding to a point about using A380's to manage slot scarcity.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 47):
I do enjoy reading most of your posts, as usually you (at least try to) bring a somewhat balanced view (well except off course for your A380 pet wing, but I'll give you that), but I feel that there was not much balance in this posting.

Thanks in general, sad to disappoint in this instance. I think you misinterpret re my slot scarcity management argument, as stated above.
 
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RE: Are There Any New A380 Customers Out There?

Sat Nov 14, 2015 7:34 am

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 43):
I believe this is a vastly overrated argument regarding widebody longhaul ops.
A big hub airport sees up to 2,000 movements per day, at least 1,000 for 2-runway hubs.

Even a huge intercontinental hub like HKG has only ~40 frequencies daily on 77W or larger routes - the only routes on which a VLA might feasibly be deployed.

Converting 40 daily 77W frequencies to A380's would save reduce daily movements by ~30: 2% of total movement movements give or take a point depending on the airport.

The overwhelming proportion of frequencies from even slot-restricted hubs are short-haul narrowbody movements.

But that is only the view from the airport side. Any single airline does only own part of those slots. So if you are running four 777 on one route into that slot restricted airport and you do not get slot #5, than expansion means running a bigger frame.
And that argument holds for any size of frame.
So you see Emirates going from 777 to A380 in such an environment and little FI moving from 757 to 767. And you have a lot of also smaller sized airports being slot restricted during at least part of the day.

[Edited 2015-11-13 23:41:09]

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