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jetblueguy22
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Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:37 pm

Hi All,

As the previous thread became long Part 4 is being created.

The previous thread can be found here Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 3 (by jetblueguy22 Nov 1 2015 in Civil Aviation) .

Regards,
Pat
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F9Animal
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:48 pm

CNN is now reporting a bomb on board is likely. Perhaps an inside job. 

If this is the cause..... ISIS just opened a can of worms it will wish it never opened. I expect Russia will go all out in retaliation. I hope this brings forth better dialogue between Russia and the US. 

By the way.... Richard, the aviation expert with the British accent. Wow...... Anyone else find his expert reporting not very.... Expert?
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osiris30
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:54 pm

As I said at the tail end of the previous thread;

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 354):
The bomb theorists seems to be having a field day with this:

Honestly Mandala; there are more than a few pictures that show inside>out puncture damage, including one of the after section of the plane with a large hole blown out towards the rear of the aircraft. I've been biting my tongue on these things because I believe it was a bomb, but that inherently biases what I see in the images and I wanted to see what explanations others came up with for the holes.


With an added ask:

Somewhere there was a picture someone posted on one of these threads comparing the inside of the tail section of the aircraft to a 'normal' example and showing the hs and vs attachments. I can't seem to find it, but if someone knows which post it was, if they could link the image, you'll see a large hole, again inside to out puncture in that area.
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A320ajm
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:55 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 1):
By the way.... Richard, the aviation expert with the British accent. Wow...... Anyone else find his expert reporting not very.... Expert?

I think he was the same guy I heard say to Sky News: "EasyJet have 100s of A321s". Errrrr.....

A320ajm
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washingtonflyer
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:03 pm

Boy, wonder how hat bodes for future flights to the USA from the Middle east....
 
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Cyow
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:07 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 1):
Richard, the aviation expert with the British accent.

That bloke with the English accent you mean? Yes, he is hardly an 'expert'. Here's a little background on CNN's expert:
http://nypost.com/2008/04/19/kinky-news-network

But back to the event at hand, if the bomb theory is confirmed I do believe we've entered a new phase in Russia's anti-terror foreign policy. Putin will not hesitate to unleash his military forces outside of Syria. I remember how he conducted the 2nd war in Chechnya in the late 90s; this man is a determined leader especially when provoked.
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Deanger
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:11 pm

I had a question regarding Mandala's plotting of the ADS-B data on the previous page.

Particularly in regards to the track, which seems to paint the most vivid and upsetting picture of what may happened.

Am I reading it correctly to interpret it as follows:

something happens that perhaps triggers some kind of structural damage around 4.216 4.217 (let's not decide what caused it for the sake of this post). This possibly leads to some kind of failure significant enough by just before 4.218 to see the airplane briefly kick left before starting a "turn" (not saying controlled)" to the right that then comes back to the left...

And that at 4.222 the airplane suffers some kind of catastrophic failure and essentially stops anything resembling flight as we know it?

In other words, based on the track, can one say it looks like a small thing leads to bigger thing leads to break-up?

I'm trying to picture it in my mind.
 
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pvjin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:12 pm

Quoting cyow (Reply 5):

Oh yes, I hope Putin starts a full scale ground invasion and helps Assad to drive out ISIS, FSA and other terrorist organizations from Syria. Only then the peace process may truly start.

Personally I've held all of Northern Africa on my absolute no-go list since Arab spring, seems like for a good reason.
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Backseater
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:19 pm

Could anyone explain how catering carts are handled securely from preparation site to their final specific galley locations on the a/c, at a typical modern airport?
How are those security procedures implemented around 04:00 local in SSH? (Are kitchens operating 24hr/day? Are carts temporarily placed in cold storage? What about garbage carts? ...)
(( sorry, previously posted after part 3 was closed ))
 
Molykote
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:29 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 8):
Could anyone explain how catering carts are handled securely from preparation site to their final specific galley locations on the a/c, at a typical modern airport?
How are those security procedures implemented around 04:00 local in SSH? (Are kitchens operating 24hr/day? Are carts temporarily placed in cold storage? What about garbage carts? ...)
(( sorry, previously posted after part 3 was closed ))

I'm not one to be hyper-sensitive about this kind of stuff, but I'd politely advise against anyone in the know from sharing such information.
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andrefranca
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:31 pm

Quoting jetblueguy22 (Thread starter):
Personally I've held all of Northern Africa on my absolute no-go list since Arab spring, seems like for a good reason

I arrived from there 3 days ago, never felt any safer! The danger is to westerns/western looking people, I never felt so welcomed!

The west needs to stop messing around in the middle east and leave this people alone, they already have too many problems to deal with.
 
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pvjin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:35 pm

Quoting andrefranca (Reply 10):
I arrived from there 3 days ago, never felt any safer! The danger is to westerns/western looking people, I never felt so welcomed!

Yes, too bad I'm a western looking person.

Quoting andrefranca (Reply 10):
The west needs to stop messing around in the middle east and leave this people alone, they already have too many problems to deal with.

Indeed, too bad out leaders don't care about the facts and parliamentary democracy is broken. Western media is very effective at brainwashing mindless sheep to follow whatever agenda the elite wants it to follow, and unfortunately those sheep are the majority of our populations.
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Backseater
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:37 pm

Quoting Molykote (Reply 9):
I'm not one to be hyper-sensitive about this kind of stuff, but I'd politely advise against anyone in the know from sharing such information.

Actually that is a fair answer.

It obviously does not assuage my worries. If I can take what I hope is an invalid example from the encryption world, encryption algorithms that need to be kept secret to protect their vulnerability are not likely to be secure at all.
 
hivue
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:42 pm

Quoting andrefranca (Reply 10):
I arrived from there 3 days ago, never felt any safer! The danger is to westerns/western looking people, I never felt so welcomed!

If you'd been a passenger on the Kolavia flight you'd have gone down right along with all those "western looking people."
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GlenP
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:46 pm

Quoting andrefranca (Reply 10):
The danger is to westerns/western looking people, I never felt so welcomed!

Sorry, I've been in Egypt several times since the 25 January Revolution & since the ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood government & I've never felt any hostility towards westerners, even when visiting mosques known to be patronised by Salafis; who were amongst the most welcoming of people.

The vast majority of those living in all of the middle eastern countries don't associate themselves with the views expressed by or the atrocities carried out enacted by extremist/terrorist groups & it is as wrong to lump them together as it would be to claim that all US citizens are ignorant of anything that happens in the outside world.

Personally, until we hear something from those directly involved in the investigation, I'll hold that the only cause that should be ruled out is a missile attack; & that is based on 17 years service as an air defence gunner.

[Edited 2015-11-04 14:47:47]
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VS4ever
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:47 pm

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 374):
That video at 2.07 to 2.09 is that the rear fuselage? it is not burned! ...

The pictures and the video give a very horrible accident...

TRB

That's my point, I think that's what it is, but I do not have detailed enough knowledge to tell.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqR5N...PLPszygYHA9K2GZXBJDridUhYm4NkKjZgD

Above is the link again to see if anyone agrees..
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FredrikHAD
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:53 pm

Quoting Deanger (Reply 6):

something happens that perhaps triggers some kind of structural damage around 4.216 4.217

I'd say something happens at datapoint 5 (~4.2156). You see a sudden altitude change, about 200 ft. It remains that way in dp 6, but VSI doesn't change. If the altitude is determined by air pressure, it may be that the chockwave from a bomb blast may have given an increased air pressure interpreted by the sensors as an altitude change.

How do you interpret the position data? In X pos 34.1755 there is a reverse direction in the plot. Measurement error or what?

/Fredrik
 
wjcandee
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:16 pm

CNN is so totally-overhyping every tidbit of information that they get. It's "likely" an "ISIS" bomb, according to the headline, but the actual reporting is much murkier and less-definitive. And of course Scary Mary made an appearance today as well. I wonder if I can delete the channel from my TV. Reminds me of all the ridiculous nonsense they (and horrible RIchard Quest) spewed about the MH flight that turned out to be absolute bunk, quoting similar "government sources". Bottom line: CNN is just guessing. Reporting without filtering isn't reporting at all.


Quoting Molykote (Reply 9):
I'm not one to be hyper-sensitive about this kind of stuff, but I'd politely advise against anyone in the know from sharing such information.

Amen. What a bizarrely-detailed request.

Quoting andrefranca (Reply 10):
The west needs to stop messing around in the middle east and leave this people alone,

Riiiight. Maybe that would be viable if they weren't walking -- by the millions -- into the West to get away from what is happening in the countries that you want us to "leave alone".
 
shortstack81
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:24 pm

yes I noticed that too wjcandee. The headlines (and tweets) do not match what's actually being said (from are usual "unnamed officials") and in fact the text of the articles all state those same officials stress they don't have enough information yet.

It's going to be a long time before we know any real information. I'll note Russian officials seem to be waiting. Everyone else is leaking.
 
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Ty134A
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:28 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 7):
Oh yes, I hope Putin starts a full scale ground invasion and helps Assad to drive out ISIS, FSA and other terrorist organizations from Syria. Only then the peace process may truly start.

as much as i feel with russia in this question in having family there, this would mean that even more of these "refugees" enter the last intact remaining social system democracies in europe (de, at, se) and start to destroy those from within. i will do everything in my hand not to allow that!

but again, if it was a bomb, hopefully putins answer will not only reach the IS, but also the kings, princes, emirs and sultans of the terror funding countries in this region, even if they happen to be under US protection!
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A332DTW
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:37 pm

Who cares what Putin will or will not do? This man has created an unnecessary mess in Eastern Europe that has ruined countless lives and destabilized a European country to the point that not only has urban warfare become a thing in Europe again, but a civil airliner was shot down in European airspace. I don't care what this man decides to do, his credibility as a responsible leader and reliable ally to most of Europe has gone out the window. It may be harsh to say, but just because a Russian airliner was downed does not make him suddenly the knight in shining armor in a conflict outside of Eastern Europe.
 
cat3appr50
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:38 pm

Where’s the first half and remaining half of the THS (and THS support and actuator assembly) and RPB parts specifically located relative to the main crash site and other debris?

In the past JAL 123 crash (B747) the RPB (which was incorrectly repaired after a serious tail strike incident) failed, resulting in an explosive decompression which subsequently destroyed the majority of the VS/Rudder (which then detached from the aircraft, found many miles from the major crash site). Four hydraulic lines were severed as well, all leading to the loss of control and subsequent crash.

Considering the pictures of the KGL9268 components posted showing the tail cone (reported miles from the main crash site), IMO it seems logical that there was likely an explosive, very high velocity gas flow toward the rear of the aircraft, whether of nefarious or non-nefarious (e.g. RPB failure, etc.), which relatively cleanly took out (detached) the tail cone and the THS and its associated assembly from the general tail section. The tail section with damaged VS also found detached and remote from the main crash area may have detached resulting from the aircraft pitch down moment created by an initial detachment of the THS and subsequent aerodynamic forces.

Just my opinion.
 
smokeybandit
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:56 pm

I guess my question is, why would ISIS target a non-Western flight?
 
dampfnudel
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:04 am

Quoting shortstack81 (Reply 18):
yes I noticed that too wjcandee. The headlines (and tweets) do not match what's actually being said (from are usual "unnamed officials") and in fact the text of the articles all state those same officials stress they don't have enough information yet.

It's going to be a long time before we know any real information. I'll note Russian officials seem to be waiting. Everyone else is leaking.

The Russian government knows that once they make it official that it was an ISIS bomb that killed so many Russians, they'll be under internal pressure to respond forcibly against ISIS. In other words, they have to use the time now to prepare their response. As for the rest of us, you have to wonder if ISIS or some other entity has developed a new type of bomb that can avoid current bomb detection systems in use at most airports. I'm sure personnel at the TSA and other airport security organizations around the world are sweating a little more than usual right now if it's true that the plane was brought down by a bomb.
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Acheron
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:06 am

Quoting A332DTW (Reply 20):

Pot. Kettle. Black. I've lost count of how many civil wars haven been triggered by either Europe or the US over the years.

Do as I say, not as I do is the shtick?. Heck, you have two NATO members going at each other's throat constantly, one of them openly suporting terrorist groups.

But anyway, enough off topic.

Seems CCN is just jumping the shark going ahead with the bomb thing when they try to force a relationship with the current in-vogue baddies, even if the link is tenuous.

Quoting dampfnudel (Reply 24):
I'm sure personnel at the TSA and other airport security organizations around the world are sweating a little more than usual right now if it's true that the plane was brought down by a bomb.

I wouldn't go that far. All it takes is someone willing to lend a hand within Egypt's airports.

[Edited 2015-11-04 16:08:19]

[Edited 2015-11-04 16:09:22]
 
IADCA
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:08 am

Quoting smokeybandit (Reply 23):
I guess my question is, why would ISIS target a non-Western flight?

Because Russia recently stepped up intervention against ISIS in Syria on behalf of one of ISIS' main enemies?
 
bluenose5
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:16 am

News outlets reporting UK govt has banned all UK carriers from operating into Sharm el Sheikh.

Egyptian PM in London tomorrow. He won't be a happy bunny.
 
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GlenP
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:25 am

Quoting bluenose5 (Reply 27):
News outlets reporting UK govt has banned all UK carriers from operating into Sharm el Sheikh.

Egyptian PM in London tomorrow. He won't be a happy bunny.

They've suspended flights, pending further information, which isn't quite the same thing, see:

UK Sham El Sheikh Flights Suspended. (by readytotaxi Nov 4 2015 in Civil Aviation)

BTW. It's actually President Abdul Fattah el Sisi who's coming to Downing Street tomorrow.
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Rivet42
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:28 am

Quoting IADCA (Reply 26):
Because Russia recently stepped up intervention against ISIS in Syria on behalf of one of ISIS' main enemies?

Well, that's debatable, they seem to have been leaving ISIS areas alone, on the whole.

Here's the highly provocative conspiracy theory: who really, really, wants Russia to attack ISIS directly?

Just a thought.

'Riv
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mcg
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:41 am

It would seem to me that destruction via a bomb would be really easy for the safety experts to confirm. There'd be explosive residue in the wreckage and the hull would be damaged in a distinctive way. Is this correct?

From a political point of view, what result would the Egyptians want?
 
soulbarn
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:42 am

I'm wondering about the bigger picture. I think most or many would agree that big airline, commercial aviation has never been safer from a technological standpoint. I remember reading somewhere that we're entering an era where most future airline disasters will be caused not be technical flaws, but human error (or human error that turns a technical flaw tragic).

But when I think about Kolavia, GermanWings, MH17, and MH370 (and acknowledging that for the first and last of that list, cause has yet to be determined), I wonder if we are now facing an era where human malice, not error, will become a major cause of airline fatalities. I hope not, and I apologize if I'm asking for undue speculation, but - for the historians among us - have we ever seen this level of actual targeting of airliners to cause the deaths of innocents; and yes, I know that 9/11 dwarfs these examples, but that feels different - a planned and horrific conspiracy, as opposed to individual actors deciding to take out their grievances on innocents simply because a plane was in the area or they had access to that plane...

And I know that I'm opening a can of worms with whatever folks may read into the language and assumptions made above. I'm simply posing the question and welcome all opinions, corrections, etc. Thanks.
 
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777Jet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:45 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 1):
CNN is now reporting a bomb on board is likely. Perhaps an inside job.

If this is the cause..... ISIS just opened a can of worms it will wish it never opened. I expect Russia will go all out in retaliation. I hope this brings forth better dialogue between Russia and the US.
Quoting F9Animal (Reply 1):
I expect Russia will go all out in retaliation.

Only because the victims are Russians.

Maybe Russia would have been more co-operative with MH17 if there were a few dozen Russians on board...

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 1):
I hope this brings forth better dialogue between Russia and the US.

What a shame MH17 didn't bring forth better dialogue between Russia and the West.
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IADCA
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:46 am

Quoting Rivet42 (Reply 29):
Well, that's debatable, they seem to have been leaving ISIS areas alone, on the whole.

They stepped up bombings over Raqqa and Palmyra in more recent weeks after leaving them alone at first.

Quoting Rivet42 (Reply 29):
Here's the highly provocative conspiracy theory: who really, really, wants Russia to attack ISIS directly?

If you're suggesting it's the U.S., I think you need to think of the consequences if the U.S. were caught blowing up a civilian airliner full of Russian citizens. ISIS is not worth risking armed conflict with Russia, especially considering Russia is already bombing ISIS of its own accord.

[Edited 2015-11-04 16:47:58]
 
A332DTW
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:50 am

Quoting Acheron (Reply 25):
Pot. Kettle. Black. I've lost count of how many civil wars haven been triggered by either Europe or the US over the years.

I don't disagree with you there. I do have a reserved bias against Russia (you might be surprised that it's not because of Russia's relation with the US), but the point is the downing of this aircraft will not suddenly cause some major shift on how ISIS is currently being handled, nor will it make people forget what leaders like Putin have done and are still doing to cause destabilization elsewhere. But I digress.

I hope it's not a bomb, but if the evidence does materialize and a bomb becomes the most likely culprit, then aviation security has taken a major setback. I would argue even larger setback than MH17, or suicidal pilots.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:58 am

Quoting andrefranca (Reply 22):
Yessss and who started the wars? where are the mass destruction weapons in Iraq? and Afghanistan war? now Syria ohhhh waiiiit "we" were Assad's best friends before the arab spring now "we" are the enemies.... Libya... another one in the dumps..... Egypt collapsing... Nobody cares about Yemen's war and people are starving... OH no oil there or importance whatsoever.....

I sure do hope the majority of the World is better informed

tortugamon
 
prebennorholm
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:06 am

Now as the pictures of the shrapnel holes out of the aft fuselage emerged today, I think it opens a few questions: (See reply #374 in the previous thread).

Why did the Egyptians and Russians feed us for four days with all those irrelevant pictures, while hiding pictures of the only component, the aft fuselage, which tells the whole story?

Any 4th grader could have told us the truth already last Sunday.

After all, with Irish, French and German investigators arriving on the scene it couldn't be hidden for very long time.

For the Egyptians I might see a reason. By blaming mechanical failure or Airbus design they could maybe stretch the truth until this accident had been put off world headline news by another accident on another continent (a school shooting or whatever), and that way save some of their future tourist industry?

But the Russians? Why did they hide it? Why did they make a dawn raid on the Metrojet office in St. Petersburg and all such things?

Speculation: I doubt that Mr. Putin will sit back and wait for the next attack, especially since by far the most of the 224 victims were from his own home town. Maybe four days of censored and confusing misinformation to the press has given him the time to prepare a "fireworks" as we have never seen before? Maybe it also gave him time to secretly warn the US including its allied in and around Syria to get out of the way, and stay out of the way, during the fireworks?

Something inside my stomach tells me that the next few days could be.... well.... unusual.

War reporters in Syria, call a taxi and get out, NOW!

[Edited 2015-11-04 17:16:23]
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Pellegrine
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:15 am

Quoting Molykote (Reply 9):
Quoting BackSeater (Reply 8):
Could anyone explain how catering carts are handled securely from preparation site to their final specific galley locations on the a/c, at a typical modern airport?
How are those security procedures implemented around 04:00 local in SSH? (Are kitchens operating 24hr/day? Are carts temporarily placed in cold storage? What about garbage carts? ...)
(( sorry, previously posted after part 3 was closed ))

I'm not one to be hyper-sensitive about this kind of stuff, but I'd politely advise against anyone in the know from sharing such information.

Because the security just isn't there in the way it could or "should" be, and the least of your worries (but it is definitely a worry as Molykote insinuates) is someone in the know with loose lips. The common business answer would be, "it costs too much and wastes too much time."

There's a lot of things that go on in "secure" facilities that would astound the general public, and they never make the light of day. BTW, some (but not all) of the things this poster asked about are already in the public domain via various "in the life" documentaries.
oh boy, here we go!!!
 
DDR
Posts: 1673
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2013 11:09 pm

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:18 am

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 36):

I have thought that the crash was a result of a bomb since Sunday but people didn't want to hear that.

I hope that Putin does the right thing and goes after the terrorist but one thing worries me. Since the bomb was obviously placed on the aircraft in Egypt, will Putin go after Egypt as well? And if he doesn't, then who exactly will he go after? If it does turn out to be a bomb, as I suspect, Putin will need to know who is responsible before he starts retaliation.
 
bcworld
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:23 am

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 36):
But the Russians? Why did they hide it? Why did they make a dawn raid on the Metrojet office in St. Petersburg and all such things?

Presumably this is just the way they do things...other countries open 'criminal' investigations into plane crashes too. I would imagine the aim is to seize all records related to the aircraft in question before anyone else has a chance to tamper with them...doesn't sound unreasonable to me if you don't think your airlines are entirely trustworthy!
 
Rivet42
Posts: 608
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2005 11:26 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:32 am

Quoting IADCA (Reply 33):
If you're suggesting it's the U.S., I think you need to think of the consequences if the U.S. were caught blowing up a civilian airliner full of Russian citizens. ISIS is not worth risking armed conflict with Russia, especially considering Russia is already bombing ISIS of its own accord.

Well, I was really just illustrating where it ends up when we try to unpick the labyrinth of vested interests and proxy agendas in a region that has never really been free from external interference.

ISIS are clearly the prime suspects, but that just feels a bit too obvious to me, and would be a big departure from their current activities. Chechen freedom fighters might have a stronger beef with Russia, and do have form. But without a verified source of the device, if that does turn out to be the cause of the disaster, it all comes down to who are seen to be the targets, or what reaction is being provoked.

Riv'
I travel, therefore I am.
 
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ssteve
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:50 am

Quoting bcworld (Reply 39):
Presumably this is just the way they do things...other countries open 'criminal' investigations into plane crashes too. I would imagine the aim is to seize all records related to the aircraft in question before anyone else has a chance to tamper with them...doesn't sound unreasonable to me if you don't think your airlines are entirely trustworthy!

Happens in the US, too... just takes awhile. The FBI "raided" Sabretech three months after the Valujet crash.
 
prebennorholm
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:52 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 38):
I have thought that the crash was a result of a bomb since Sunday but people didn't want to hear that.

Well, with the preliminary, confusing, filtered and censored information we had on Sunday, a bomb was no more than a wild jump to conclusion. With the latest pictures we know better (unless they are faked, which I can't imagine with Irish, French and German investigators present).

Quoting DDR (Reply 38):
...will Putin go after Egypt as well?

No. If anything, Putin will assist the Egypt government in its internal struggle.

Quoting DDR (Reply 38):
Putin will need to know who is responsible before he starts retaliation.

Are you sure about that? I'm not so sure. My guestimate is more like "forge while the iron is hot". Pursue his near term goals in Syria, first of all secure his one and only Mediterranean navy base, and provide some more stable crutches for the Assad government.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9526
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:09 am

Quoting DDR (Reply 38):
I have thought that the crash was a result of a bomb since Sunday but people didn't want to hear that.

I think people were quite open to the idea, but if someone is going to call it on Sunday before we have any real evidence of it, then no, people don't want to hear that. All too often we get people early on who "know what happened" and then ***IF*** that ends up being the case, well then "I was right all along and no one would listen to me!"

In the end, many of us have our gut instincts, but keeping an open mind should go hand in hand with them.

Quoting DDR (Reply 38):
If it does turn out to be a bomb, as I suspect, Putin will need to know who is responsible before he starts retaliation.

Well, you knew on Sunday that it was a bomb. Perhaps you can tell him who is responsible  

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
prebennorholm
Posts: 7020
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:15 am

Quoting bcworld (Reply 39):
Presumably this is just the way they do things...other countries open 'criminal' investigations into plane crashes too. I would imagine the aim is to seize all records related to the aircraft in question before anyone else has a chance to tamper with them...doesn't sound unreasonable to me if you don't think your airlines are entirely trustworthy!

Yeah, I know that. And when / if everything is in good order, then a dawn raid just proves that everything is in good order.

What I was wondering was all the fuzz in the press about the dawn raid and suspicion against MetroJet, while at the same time they had a rear fuselage in the Sinai Desert with shrapnel holes from the inside, and hided that for everyone.

MetroJet told the truth: "Neither mechanical failure nor pilot error caused the accident", they said, and they likely knew that already. Had they told more than that, then they would have been in conflict with the official Russian press. Not recommendable if you want to continue doing business in Russia.

In other words, MetroJet likely felt that they were forced to tell "what it was NOT", while at the same time they already knew "what it WAS".
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2382
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:52 am

Quoting Rivet42 (Reply 40):
ISIS are clearly the prime suspects, but that just feels a bit too obvious to me, and would be a big departure from their current activities. Chechen freedom fighters might have a stronger beef with Russia, and do have form. But without a verified source of the device, if that does turn out to be the cause of the disaster, it all comes down to who are seen to be the targets, or what reaction is being provoked.

Sometimes the obvious is the truth. I do believe it's more likely that IS did this than anyone else. With respect, suggesting the blame is on the US is ridiculus. And there probably aren't any Chechen fighters in Egypt. But there are IS there.. and thousands of other islamists who'd have something against Russia's campaign in Syria.

The shrapnel holes that seem to come from the inside of the fuselage suggests a bomb for sure, but there isn't any explosive residue found yet? What else than bomb components could create those holes? Could rivets from an explosive decompression cause them?
 
wjcandee
Posts: 8243
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:53 am

Quoting SSTeve (Reply 41):
The FBI "raided" Sabretech three months after the Valujet crash.

Which was one way they were able to prove all sorts of other issues in that shop that had nothing to do with ValuJet, but did show that a former division of a significant aircraft manufacturer was really, really messed up.
 
wjcandee
Posts: 8243
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 12:50 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:02 am

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 44):
What I was wondering was all the fuzz in the press about the dawn raid and suspicion against MetroJet, while at the same time they had a rear fuselage in the Sinai Desert with shrapnel holes from the inside, and hided that for everyone.

Where are the photos of that again? I was looking through the threads and haven't seen it.
 
VX321
Posts: 106
Joined: Tue Aug 19, 2014 8:53 pm

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:02 am

I'd like to know where the hydraulic lines run(sides,top,bottom?) on an A321 to better understand what occurred in the air because based of what has either been leaked or posted, the plane was not immediately taken down. For some iota or two, the plane was breaking apart. If we know that a strange sounds were heard at the end of the black box recording, we have proof of shrapnel out of the aft of the aircraft and we know it broke up in midair, then what caused the crash was a chain reaction- heated explosion of (fill in the blank) causes the plane to have catastrophic structural failure which included the aft of the plane being blown off or ripped off.
 
incitatus
Posts: 3333
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:10 am

Quoting andrefranca (Reply 10):
I arrived from there 3 days ago, never felt any safer! The danger is to westerns/western looking people, I never felt so welcomed!

What makes you think you are not "Western looking"? What makes you think ISIS or some other radical group would not want your head just because you are not a Muslim of a particular sect?

Your comments sound quite naïve .

I was in Egypt too and I loved it. Within a few days I was mingling with the locals in the public buses. It is irrelevant that I was a Brazilian and not an American or a person from Europe.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
prebennorholm
Posts: 7020
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2000 6:25 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:13 am

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 47):
Where are the photos of that again?

Thead #3 at https://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...general_aviation/read.main/6538216

... then now post #353 by mandala499 (post numbers are constantly changing when posts are deleted).
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
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