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lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 1:54 pm

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 100):
But it still doesn't figure why Syrian/Iraqi Daesh would want to down the Russian jet?

Russia bombed them. And then i need not be the wish of syrian IS, it could be local. Some IS-fans or the muslim brotherhood.

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 100):
I can't help but wonder if this is the work of terrorists from the North Caucasus, even if they're operating under the IS banner.

Rather unlikely, they would have to have someone who is able to pass as an Arab for an inside job. They don't speak arabic in Chechnia and surroundings.
 
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InsideMan
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:00 pm

Quoting eha (Reply 101):
but with respect to assessing possible root cause of the crash it is of really little help

in principle I fully agree with you, however if the root cause is bomb, the question is who planted it and what were its motives. And I agree there is not much to gain and a lot more to lose for ISIS if they plotted this.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:05 pm

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 104):
there is not much to gain and a lot more to lose for ISIS if they plotted this.

potential Gain: Lots of publicity! Expansion into Egypt, maybe.
And what could they lose ? They are known to be notorious terrorists anyway. The world is already outraged, and Russia is bombing them already.
Nothing to lose for them.
 
Backseater
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:12 pm

If on-site investigators cannot find any trace of explosive residues, that does not rule out a bomb as the root cause of the a/c disintegration. It only restricts the bomb types that might have been on-board.
One class comes to mind, namely liquid explosives. For instance hydrogen peroxide + acid (to be mixed at the last moment).
 
eha
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:43 pm

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 104):

in principle I fully agree with you, however if the root cause is bomb, the question is who planted it and what were its motives. And I agree there is not much to gain and a lot more to lose for ISIS if they plotted this.

Sure, but I separate two things.
The scenario which leads to the A/C break-up (assumed) and crash and how the data we do have relate together (sections of A/C not all close to each other, some quite intact (low speed crash?) some others burned...what tells the dispersion of the various part on the breakup - which altitude, which speed.....up to the main root cause, bomb/technical issue....)..
This is meant to be the core of the discussion here...

In a second stage, if bomb in the A/C : how did it get there, what does that tell about local security measures in place, weaknesses etc....

I leave it to others the various other statements about politics, cultural differences, which seems to me more personal feelings on the fringe of the forum rules than deep educated political, historical factual statements, if you ask me...

E.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:58 pm

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 49):
Quoting wjcandee (Reply 47):
Where are the photos of that again?

Thead #3 at https://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...38216

That's the strangest looking bomb damage I've ever seen. Looks more like it was caused by a goldfish with a high powered rifle ... or a bolt expelled through the fuselage by an explosive decompression as a result of structural failure or an explosive device. Just another piece of data, but inconclusive by itself.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:02 pm

In the A321 of Metrojet/Kolavia are the galley carts stowed, ahead or aft of the rear door? The curled skin on the main photo seems to be too high up to be coming from the baggage hold (and I am not even sure if there is a baggage hold that far aft). It seems to be right behind the last passenger window (the last two windows were painted over), so I'd expect the toilet to be there or part of the galley.

The two painted-over windows can be seen here:

http://www.baaa-acro.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EI-ETJ3.jpg

Edit: just found the safety card:



So the curled skin is at the site of the toilet. This is also seen on the pic below where you can see the wash basin:

http://avherald.com/img/metrojet_a321_ei-etj_sinai_151031_15.jpg

And again here:

http://avherald.com/img/metrojet_a321_ei-etj_sinai_151031_9.jpg

With scorching below the A321 sign.

Conclusion could be the bomb may have been planted in the toilet by a cleaner, who would have the chance to do this unnoticed.

Edit

[Edited 2015-11-05 07:03:56]

[Edited 2015-11-05 07:04:24]
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
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InsideMan
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:03 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 106):
and Russia is bombing them already.

not really according to most News outlets, but I assume if they ARE behind it, they will soon....
 
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pvjin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:08 pm

Quoting Cush (Reply 112):

If ISIS really wants to blow up an aircraft I highly believe they have the capability to get explosives on board pretty much any flight in Europe, they simply have so much money and a lot of knowledgeable people. What if ISIS through surgical operation plants a bomb inside a passenger? That's something which could be seen only using an X-ray scanner.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
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DolphinAir747
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:27 pm

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 116):

being from the US should should feel especially bad about them! If it weren't for the disaster in Iraq thanks to GWB there would be no ISIS and no refugees...

Well, it's more complicated than that. A good portion of my family are political refugees from a country that was taken over by Islamists in the 1990s and this was certainly not due to any US meddling as I don't think the US was ever noticeably involved there. The US wasn't behind raping women in the streets over there until they all started wearing the niqab. There has been filth in these countries for much, much longer than the US has been involved. Wahhabism predates US independence, and jihad plus sectarian violence among Muslims have been around since the Middle Ages. I was against the Iraq War merely because the Middle East's problems are a black hole, trust me you need to be from there to really understand. As much as ignorant racism in the US is very real, as someone of Arabo-Muslim roots I've always felt a lot more welcome in the US than in an illiberal country where my family members were literally being hunted down as apostates.
 
Trin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:31 pm

Quoting PlaneInsomniac (Reply 68):

There is a video circulating that purportedly shows the actual explosion (don't ask me how it was supposedly filmed). Intelligence agencies reportedly consider it to be possibly authentic:

http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/articl...-den-Anschlag-auf-Flug-7K9268.html

That is absolutely horrifying and - if genuine - is ISIS' one-way ticket to proving their claim of responsibility. It's easy to find a plane in the sky with simple smartphone apps etc. if you know where to look - something that is well within the capability of 5th graders let alone terrorists.
 
CO953
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 3:44 pm

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 116):
being from the US should should feel especially bad about them! If it weren't for the disaster in Iraq thanks to GWB there would be no ISIS and no refugees...

And if it weren't for Obama precipitously pulling out all the troops too early, leaving a huge vacuum in a substantially stabilized Iraq that had become safer than Chicago.....

See how this works?

That's why the politics won't help the thread.
 
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pvjin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:34 pm

Quoting N14AZ (Reply 130):

Yes, please stay away, the discussion is only starting to get interesting!
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
eha
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:40 pm

Quoting Capt.Fantastic (Reply 126):

Yes, facts are facts.. why don't you state some instead of overgeneralized opinion.

I am with you on this one. It is a disgrace to generalize to a whole population the facts committed by a few.
The syrian refugees...those polluting, like one dared to write...You have to envisage that many of them are the wealthiest of the country, those able to leave...Look and hear the young ones..they speak good english and a good proportion of them are studying in college, engineers...I mean far more educated than the narrow minded people scared off of any possible invasion in their country...far from me the idea to be idealistic...but internet is today far more powerful to brain wash candidate to terrorism that using an exodus to penetrate a given country.

Then to overgeneralize using the term islamic , whereas Syrian has also Christian population and You might not even envisage that some of them may not even believe in any God....

Wow...
E.
 
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Finn350
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:41 pm

Quoting mcg (Reply 29):
It would seem to me that destruction via a bomb would be really easy for the safety experts to confirm. There'd be explosive residue in the wreckage and the hull would be damaged in a distinctive way. Is this correct?

Fully agree, and each passing day without concrete evidence for a bomb makes the bomb theory less and less likely.
 
lowbank
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:26 pm

UK government has decreed that pax will travel home without luggage.

only small hand luggage allowed with critical items in.

aircraft can only be refueled in Sharm and that has to be supervised. no luggage or food etc to be put on board.

treating this very seriously
Every days a school day.
 
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seahawk
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:34 pm

ISIS is in Egypt, they are fighting the security forces in the Sinai Desert.
 
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GlenP
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:55 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 125):
ISIS is in Egypt, they are fighting the security forces in the Sinai Desert.

No, Anwar Beit al Maqdis is in Sinai. They chose to swear allegiance to ISIS, when ISIS seemed to be in the ascendant, in Syria & Iraq, but they are not the same group.

Anwar Beit al Maqdis have been engaged in a terrorist campaign for years & previously swore allegiance to Al Qaida. Needless to say, if ISIS is wiped off the face of the earth, Anwar Beit al Maqdis & several of the other terrorist groups who have declared their allegiance to ISIS, will shortly thereafter declare themselves to be linked to the next big name in terrorism.
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
galleypower
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 6:04 pm

Hey guys, this is an aviation forum. The political forum ist three doors down the hall!!

Thanks!
 
hivue
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 6:05 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 122):
each passing day without concrete evidence for a bomb makes the bomb theory less and less likely.

So does each passing day without "concrete evidence" of inflight structural failure make the inflight structural failure theory less likely?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
spacecadet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 6:22 pm

Quoting Joshu (Reply 92):
He did not cite any technical evidence or information gained from the black boxes.

And that, my friends, is the only important thing in these recent reports. No actual evidence of a bomb has been cited by anybody.

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 97):
I would wager that the US intelligence agencies have extensive knowledge of what aircraft bombings look like

Based on what, the many aircraft bombings they have observed over the years? Where did these occur and how did the CIA/NSA happen to be there?

The one thing all aircraft bombings that *have* occurred - the vast majority of which no one has witnessed - is that they leave bomb residue. That's how a bomb was ruled out in the TWA800 case, and it's how a bomb was ruled *in* for Pan Am 103. Until we hear something about bomb residue in this airplane, there's no evidence of a bomb. There's certainly none in any of the photos we've seen.

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 97):
I would also wager that you have no idea what CIA and NSA are capable of....

...says the guy from Vatican City. I'm pretty sure I have a better idea than you.

Meanwhile, the Russians - who have a *vested interest* in this being a bomb, because it justifies to the world their military action in Syria and gets one of their airlines off the hook - just laid the smackdown on the bomb talk this morning.

Wait for the evidence.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
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Aesma
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 6:30 pm

A geopolitics specialist on 24/7 French channel I-Télé is saying that he has a security source in an Arab country confirming the bombing. Apparently that Arab country is listening on their Egyptian embassy and the ambassador discussed it with Cairo.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
ThirtyEcho
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 6:45 pm

In the aftermath of tragic aviation incidents the public demands, and the media quickly supplies, immediate and easy to understand causes for the tragedy. If the media fails to promptly respond, the public does it for them by promoting UFOs, the slippage of the Bermuda Triangle, mini black holes, the New World Order and preposterous conspiracies as the cause. Politicians often aid the easy explanations for publicity purposes, with not a single technical qualification in their kit.

The hard, tedious and exhaustive examination of the data is left aside, with the real explanation coming long after public interest has waned to the vanishing point. The easy answers devoid of real data survive, nonetheless, even if completely debunked by careful analysis. This is what we have here, in the present case.

When analyzing why an aircraft might lose all but token control in the pitch axis we are going to get very technical right away and depend on expertise the public does not have and a causal chain too lengthy for immediate gratification. It is very tempting to make simple pronouncements like "it was a bomb" or "ISIS did it with a missile" or "pilots don't have stick and rudder skills" before moving on to the latest about the Kardashians.
 
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Classa64
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 6:52 pm

Quoting galleypower (Reply 128):

Thank-you!!

Can someone please summarize or direct me to a summary in this thread if there is one, I tried reading this thread but its got so far off topic I gave up, just checking back now and glad someone stepped in.

RIP to all the people that perished.
"Freedom is the miles i'm rolling on"
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 6:55 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 129):
So does each passing day without "concrete evidence" of inflight structural failure make the inflight structural failure theory less likely?

I dont agree. A full and conclusive investigation into this scenario would require far more fact finding and analysis than finding traces of explosives in the wreckage.
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 7:13 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 130):
The one thing all aircraft bombings that *have* occurred - the vast majority of which no one has witnessed - is that they leave bomb residue. That's how a bomb was ruled out in the TWA800 case, and it's how a bomb was ruled *in* for Pan Am 103. Until we hear something about bomb residue in this airplane, there's no evidence of a bomb. There's certainly none in any of the photos we've seen.

The fact that the wreckage ended up on dry land helps. TWA 800 and Air India 182 both ended in the water. Lockerbie was easy because it too was on dry land.

AI 182 could easily have ended up misdiagnosed as a structural failure / catastrophic loss of control, had it not been for the simultaneous bombing in Tokyo, which provided the vital clue.
 
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Airbus747
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 7:23 pm

Quoting Rivet42 (Reply 86):

It's not a statement. It's a personal expression of hope, a desire. I lived part of my childhood in an Islamic country and everyone around me was Muslim. So I find nothing offensive about it, nothing political, just deep, sincere, personal hope.

Have you experienced living in an Islamic country as a child, and then moved to the West?

Just saying, a remark in passing, no need to debate or dwell on it. This is an aviation forum  

[Edited 2015-11-05 11:27:56]
 
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Finn350
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 7:32 pm

Quoting EMAman (Reply 134):
I dont agree. A full and conclusive investigation into this scenario would require far more fact finding and analysis than finding traces of explosives in the wreckage.

   Agree, a trace of explosives residue in any aircraft part would basically settle the case. For a structural failure scenario, much more fact finding needed.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 7:36 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 130):
Meanwhile, the Russians - who have a *vested interest* in this being a bomb, because it justifies to the world their military action in Syria and gets one of their airlines off the hook

Russia may have a vested interest in it being a bomb, but it may just as well have a vested interest in it being NOT a bomb - for internal reasons. Obviously, they don't care much about a small airline.
And imho they don't need to justify their campagne to the world outside the US. The US may be somewhat jealous because those operations were an american monopoly until now, but elsewhere bombing terrorists does not need much justification. And Putin does not have to worry too much about collateral damage.

The only one to really have a vested interest is Egypt. For Egypt and its tourism, a bomb is the worst case.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:06 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 130):
Meanwhile, the Russians - who have a *vested interest* in this being a bomb, because it justifies to the world their military action in Syria and gets one of their airlines off the hook - just laid the smackdown on the bomb talk this morning.

So you think that helping an airline with 6 aircraft safe face is more valuable than the inevitable reduction of international tourism Russia will face with passengers similarly fearing they are going to die in a terrorist bombing? Do you remember the reduction in flying after 9/11? Certainly not the same scale but, really, helping an airline with 6 aircraft to get off the hook? An aircraft having a maintenance issue that could be isolated would be far less painful to the Russian economy.

Russia doesn't need justification in Syria. Putin has wide domestic support and they already have international support to attach ISIS - more the merrier from everyone's perspective other than the US. Its attacking non-ISIS rebels primarily anyway - this could just broaden the mission.

tortugamon
 
WPIAeroGuy
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:19 pm

Quoting EMAman (Reply 134):

Quoting hivue (Reply 129):
So does each passing day without "concrete evidence" of inflight structural failure make the inflight structural failure theory less likely?

I dont agree. A full and conclusive investigation into this scenario would require far more fact finding and analysis than finding traces of explosives in the wreckage.
Quoting Finn350 (Reply 137):
   Agree, a trace of explosives residue in any aircraft part would basically settle the case. For a structural failure scenario, much more fact finding needed.

I'm certainly no expert on this, but on CNN they reported that the presence of explosive residue doesn't mean it was conclusively a bomb. They still need to link it back to an actual device to be sure. They referenced a military crash where soldiers in the field brought lots of residue on the airplane, which was detected during the crash investigation, but turned out to not be the cause of the crash.
-WPIAeroGuy
 
SeeTheWorld
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:41 pm

Quoting WPIAeroGuy (Reply 140):
I'm certainly no expert on this, but on CNN they reported that the presence of explosive residue doesn't mean it was conclusively a bomb. They still need to link it back to an actual device to be sure. They referenced a military crash where soldiers in the field brought lots of residue on the airplane, which was detected during the crash investigation, but turned out to not be the cause of the crash.

Actually, this happened on TWA800 ... bomb residue was found and many people concluded that it was a bomb ... but they realized that the aircraft had ferried troops during Desert Storm in the early 1990s ... utimately, they were able to get past the residue and actually determined the the real cause ...

[Edited 2015-11-05 12:42:03]

[Edited 2015-11-05 12:43:10]
 
WPIAeroGuy
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 9:06 pm

Quoting SeeTheWorld (Reply 141):
Actually, this happened on TWA800 ... bomb residue was found and many people concluded that it was a bomb ... but they realized that the aircraft had ferried troops during Desert Storm in the early 1990s ... utimately, they were able to get past the residue and actually determined the the real cause ...

Maybe that was what they were referring to, I didn't catch all of it.
-WPIAeroGuy
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 9:35 pm

Quoting SeeTheWorld (Reply 141):

Actually, this happened on TWA800 ... bomb residue was found and many people concluded that it was a bomb

Even though one can have residue without a bomb, it's highly unlikely one can have a bomb without residue.

If any explosive device brought down the aircraft, there will be evidence of it...more evidence than even traces of explosive materials...pitting, melting, particles of the bomb and its container embedded in other materials.
What the...?
 
EMAman
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 9:44 pm

Quoting WPIAeroGuy (Reply 140):
I'm certainly no expert on this, but on CNN they reported that the presence of explosive residue doesn't mean it was conclusively a bomb. They still need to link it back to an actual device to be sure. They referenced a military crash where soldiers in the field brought lots of residue on the airplane, which was detected during the crash investigation, but turned out to not be the cause of the crash.

Yes, this is what happened in TWA800. There will need to be more circumstantial analysis to conclusively prove a bomb, but finding residue without another explanation would be highly indicative.
 
aerodog
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:15 pm

I'm still open to the probable cause but also recognize that an explosive device on board would certainly be plausible.

Sharm is unique. There are only two roads leading in with checkpoints where every vehicle is stopped and checked. There is a strong military presence all over the area. Because of the isolation and the ease to secure it may be why the Egyptians built a huge beautiful international conference center there. It is in frequent use for Mid-East government functions at the highest levels. As I recall, Hillary's first trip abroad as Sec of State was to Sharm.

I suspect Sharm has more resorts than Cancun/Playa del Carmen (and better diving) plus restaurants, shops and construction etc. All-in-all, thousands of jobs to which Sharm does not have an indigenous population to provide the work force needed to support everything that is going on. Consequently, many of the workers come down from Cairo and other cities big and small, stay 6 months to a year before going back home for periods of time. This could be the Achilles heel.

Most of the jobs are largely unskilled so it fits with workers coming and going...so many that it would be difficult to do any kind of a background check even for those given access to the airplanes on a daily basis. And you would not even necessarily need access to the airplane, only access to the catering cart earmarked for the aft cabin.
 
vkrymko
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:16 pm

The war in Syria, for Russians thus far, has been a war seen solely on their television sets and read about on the Internet. If this crash was caused by a bomb, that would imply that Putin's actions abroad are putting lives of civilians at risk. Does Putin want to take the risk of losing support for a war or to have anti-war protests?

In fact, the Russian Government and its puppet press has completely attempted to shift the focus of the crash, bringing into focus the old Boeing 737 Rudder issue. -(Source: NYT: http://nyti.ms/1l9R0qU )

Today, Putin called Cameroon to question British decision to cancel flight, before any definite conclusion is found and, concurrently, grounded Metrojet's A321s.

Much better for Kremlin to blame European and American airline manufacturers and, if necessary blame a small domestic airline for poor maintenance, whether true or not, than to show that Putin's foreign policy is putting Russian lives at risk.

[Edited 2015-11-05 14:19:01]

[Edited 2015-11-05 14:20:04]
 
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GlenP
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:23 pm

Today, Putin called Cameroon to question British decision to cancel flight, before and definite conclusion is found and, concurrently, grounded Metrojet's A321s.

Hope he didn't call Cameroon, they're in completely the wrong part of the world.

Actually, the Beeb is stating that David Cameron called Vladimir Putin to discuss the flight ban, but only after it had been put in place. This would explain both the Egyptians & Russians saying they weren't informed before hand.

He didn't have to call the Egyptians, as President al Sisi was visiting him at Number 10, today.  

[Edited 2015-11-05 14:23:53]
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
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GlenP
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:25 pm

Sorry, strange things are happening with quotes & smilies at the moment, so my last post loses some of it's meaning.
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
vkrymko
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:31 pm

Interestingly enough, placing bombs on aircraft was originally done in the United States in 1940s - 1960s, for insurance fraud purposes. Although the MetroJet crash has been frequently compared on this forum to China Airlines 611 and TWA 800, the crash looks most similar to Continental Airlines 11, blown up in 1962 by a suicide bomber in the right rear lavatory. The tail separated form the aircraft in flight, after the explosion. http://bit.ly/20t8eQq
 
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777Jet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:37 pm

Quoting vkrymko (Reply 136):
Much better for Kremlin to blame European and American airline manufacturers and, if necessary blame a small domestic airline for poor maintenance, whether true or not, than to show that Putin's foreign policy is putting Russian lives at risk.

No matter what happened or how Putin responds the majority of Russians will keep voting for it.

Quoting GlenP (Reply 137):
Today, Putin called Cameroon to question British decision to cancel flight, before and definite conclusion is found and, concurrently, grounded Metrojet's A321s.

I guess Putin doesn't like the thought that he might be dealing with a bomb and therefore have to bulk up his image some more with an appropriate response; much easier for him to ground the A321s in the short term in an attempt to make his followers believe the plane was most likely at fault for now...

Until we know for certain, and given that a bomb is probably towards to top of the list of possible causes, I say good on Cameron for taking precautionary measure in order to protect his people.
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
vkrymko
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:49 pm

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 140):
Until we know for certain, and given that a bomb is probably towards to top of the list of possible causes, I say good on Cameron for taking precautionary measure in order to protect his people.

Completely agree. He acted rationally as an elected official.

Concurrently, Russia will ground some (all?) 737s http://bit.ly/1NSBHfP. It's quite interesting to watch the difference in how UK / US and Egypt / Russia are handing the situation.
 
dvautier
Posts: 56
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:54 pm

Explosive residue could have been quickly detected with advanced equipment or even dogs for that matter, in just a few days, yet time goes on and on and they can’t find any residue. What does that tell you? If no residue is found within a few more days the story will die down and sort of change and go away. So why the bomb theory anyway? Here are my thoughts.

1) Russia doesn’t care. They are going to continue destroying ISIS anyway.
1) The U. S. has supported the bomb theory without any proof merely to bolster their position that security is way more important than freedom.
2) G. B. just follows the leader.
3) It makes great news so ABC,CBS, NBC, even FOX jumps on it. What bleeds leads.
4) Airbus desperately wants the crash to have been caused by a bomb.
 
hivue
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:25 pm

Quoting dvautier (Reply 142):
If no residue is found within a few more days

I have seen no report establishing that no explosive residue has yet been found.
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caoimhin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Fri Nov 06, 2015 12:42 am

Quoting hivue (Reply 143):
I have seen no report establishing that no explosive residue has yet been found.

About two days ago, there were reports that affirmatively stated nothing had yet been found on examination of the victims.

http://www.independent.ie/world-news...no-explosive-residue-34169017.html
 
2175301
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Fri Nov 06, 2015 1:16 am

Quoting dvautier (Reply 142):
Explosive residue could have been quickly detected with advanced equipment or even dogs for that matter, in just a few days,

I disagree with this. That would only be true for a large bomb which sprayed residue over much of the aircraft. A very small bomb may only have explosive residue very close to its location. No dog is going to sniff that; and you have to do a swab test of all the parts to find it; assuming it was not in an area that burned after the explosion. If a small bomb area later burned due to a fuel fire you may never be able to effectively detect the residue.

It could easily take a week or more to definitively rule in or rule out a small bomb given that the wreckage is spread about and laying in the desert.


Have a great day,
 
Rivet42
Posts: 608
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Fri Nov 06, 2015 1:48 am

Quoting caoimhin (Reply 144):
About two days ago, there were reports that affirmatively stated nothing had yet been found on examination of the victims.

That's quite a long time given where we are in this investigation, and in any case was pretty much meaningless a few moments after it was made. Unless at that point they had inspected thoroughly every last scrap of wreckage. Which is certainly not the case, as far as I can tell, since we are not even sure they've found all of it yet.

Frustratingly it may be that the missing sections have the most to tell. The sooner they find those the better.

As for the actions of UK government, this was reported on the ITV news this evening:

  • "A specific piece of 'signals intelligence' - such as eavesdropped conversation - convinced Prime Minister David Cameron that the Russian plane which crashed in Egypt was brought down by a bomb, ITV News understands."

(full text here - ITV News)

Haven't seen anything that specific anywhere else...

Riv'
I travel, therefore I am.
 
dvautier
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Fri Nov 06, 2015 1:53 am

Was the "signals intelligence" from facebook?
 
YVRLTN
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Fri Nov 06, 2015 3:03 am

Quoting vkrymko (Reply 136):
Today, Putin called Cameroon to question British decision to cancel flight, before any definite conclusion is found and, concurrently, grounded Metrojet's A321s.

Thats probably more related to a knee jerk reaction to another Metrojet A321 incident at LED, funnily enough going to SSH.

http://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=181037

Quoting aerodog (Reply 135):
Most of the jobs are largely unskilled so it fits with workers coming and going...so many that it would be difficult to do any kind of a background check even for those given access to the airplanes on a daily basis. And you would not even necessarily need access to the airplane, only access to the catering cart earmarked for the aft cabin.

At the end of the day, you can have all the regulations in the world in place, they are only as good as the people involved, even if they are cleared as secure, and if people want to go around regulations they will find a way. hate to say it, but a lot of these "secure environments" are not much more than a paper title, it is near impossible to monitor and close every possible loophole. If there was something in a food cart, then this will probably lead to screening of these too prior to loading. And where do you end, do you test every water, juice & pop bottle more than 100ml? Who screens the screeners?
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incitatus
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Fri Nov 06, 2015 3:12 am

Quoting 777Jet (Reply 140):
I guess Putin doesn't like the thought that he might be dealing with a bomb and therefore have to bulk up his image some more with an appropriate response;

Bomb is a credible possibility and if Russia wanted to play it up they already would have. So they obviously do not like that theory. A bomb will make the Russian government look weak and incapable of protecting its own citizens.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
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