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Brewfangrb
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 7:55 am

Quoting mow (Reply 249):
In this case the governments are incompetent and the methods they use to prevent the terrorism are useless.

You've pretty much described the TSA pretty well here. But that's really got nothing to do with the UK deciding not to allow flights to this airport or the US and UK indicating they have intelligence that indicates it was a bomb.

The FAA already advises people of airlines on which they should not fly and the State Department advises people of where they should not go. This not new. My point was the statement to which I was replying was blathering about how the US and UK committed a "diplomatic faux pas" by not allowing the investigation, which could take as long as it takes, to finish BEFORE making a decision.

You tell me: If you were to prevent flights to an airport (any airport) which airport not already on such a list would YOU add at the top? SSH? Or ORD? JFK? TLV? I mean, what's your point, here, exactly? Because I'm not getting it.
 
2175301
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:07 am

Quoting dvautier (Reply 247):
You have said something very interesting. I'm curious to know what it is that you can make that will explode and not leave any residue?

The question is not is there any residue; but, is it easily detected and easily identified as an explosive.

So to start this discussion in that I have held a blasters license for several decades, and am currently licensed for the purchase and use of explosives. My expertise is explosive metal forming and welding; but, I have done other things.

Most people assume that explosives are nitrogen based (Nitro-Glycerin, TNT, PETN, RDX and others); and it is true that if there was a large nitrogen based explosive bomb that there would be easily detectable nitrogen substances over a large portion of the aircraft.

Now if it were a fairly small nitrogen explosive based bomb then the residue may only be on a small portion of the aircraft (nearest the explosion). That could be hard to find and may only be a couple square feet of surface area.


In addition, there are a wide variety of non-nitrogen based explosives. They tend not to be as potent per weight or volume as nitrogen based explosives; but, sure have been used in a lot or bombings of buildings in the USA and rest of the world (The woman health clinic bombings of the 70's and 80's in the USA were mainly sugar based bombs - as in table sugar).

These non-nitrogen based explosives can indeed be much harder to detect and separate out from background contamination as bomb residue; and it is quite possible for a non-nitrogen based explosive to be used to bomb an aircraft.

I always wonder about police reports of them finding the ingredients to make explosives in someone's house. That would be virtually all houses in the US and much of the industrialized world. How many houses have table sugar, which is a very common explosive component. The fact is that most houses have the other components as well just based on normal household products. Won't make a huge boom, but will make and explosive if mixed in the right ratios; and anyone appropriately trained can walk into most households in America and make an explosive based on common household products. How to set it off is another subject; but, not that difficult to construct an igniter for the explosive.


So, yes; it could take a long time to find the residue and prove by that means that it was a bomb. VCR recording noises may be the quickest analyzed data unless you find the components where the bomb was actually planted.


Have a great day,
 
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scbriml
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:24 am

Quoting dvautier (Reply 247):
I'm curious to know what it is that you can make that will explode and not leave any residue? What is your line of work? What line of work would yield such amazing knowledge of explosive devices? Are you a chemical engineer? An "explosives" engineer? Does the government know about your expertise?

Kettle, pot, black.

What's your expertise in this field and how do you know what has and hasn't been found to this point?   
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mila
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:29 am

Daily mail reports on missile attack on UK airpliner earlier and that warnings to not fly in that zone had been issued!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...741/Rocket-attack-UK-tour-jet.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...anti-aircraft-missile-attacks.html
 
MOW
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:32 am

Quoting brewfangrb (Reply 250):

My point is that there is no point in halting the traffic completely to this and only airport in the world. Or you can name me any other airport with security (terrorism) concerns where the same measures are taken? And again, why SSH / Egypt were not on the watchlist BEFORE the tragedy. You might not know, but millions of cheap holiday-seekers would fly there from Europe every year, and no one cared. OK, let's stop the flights to Egypt now, but such actions create only chaos and panic and do not give the slightest feeling of increased security to the flying public.
 
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IslandRob
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:40 am

Quoting mow (Reply 254):
My point is that there is no point in halting the traffic completely to this and only airport in the world. Or you can name me any other airport with security (terrorism) concerns where the same measures are taken? And again, why SSH / Egypt were not on the watchlist BEFORE the tragedy. You might not know, but millions of cheap holiday-seekers would fly there from Europe every year, and no one cared. OK, let's stop the flights to Egypt now, but such actions create only chaos and panic and do not give the slightest feeling of increased security to the flying public.

Perhaps there is specific intelligence indicating that Sharm El-Sheikh airport will be targeted again soon. And, perhaps, the immediate goal is NOT to give the flying public a sense of security, but to keep actual people from being blown out of the sky again. -ir
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Airbus747
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:43 am

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 251):
and anyone appropriately trained can walk into most households in America and make an explosive based on common household products

Is your name MacGyver?
 
lowbank
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:49 am

Quoting mow (Reply 254):

The UK is now carrying out a review of all airports security, they say it will take some time but if they find lax security at any airport they will suspend flights until its sorted.
as far as Sharm is concerned I know several people who have been and really like the place, some are booked to go in the near future.
personally i have looked at all the areas that are possible areas of concern and will not travel there. Sharm was one of those, i do probably pay double the price for my holiday though
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lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:54 am

Quoting mow (Reply 254):
You might not know, but millions of cheap holiday-seekers would fly there from Europe every year, and no one cared.

It is not unusual that nobody cares until something tragic happens. This is one of the sad facts of life.

Other airports with terrorism concerns hopefully care more about security. E.g. i have never heard of TLV being unsecure, although one should assume it would be highly ranked as a target.
 
MOW
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:59 am

Quoting IslandRob (Reply 255):
Perhaps there is specific intelligence indicating that Sharm El-Sheikh airport will be targeted again soon.

Why AYT, for example, is not on the list? Millions of European vacationers? Check. ISIL at the borders? Check. Millions of Syrian refugees with unknown background? Check. Highest security standards at the airports and no corruption? Don't think so.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 9:10 am

Quoting mow (Reply 259):
ISIL at the borders? Check.

But ISIL or sympathizers among airport workers ? Refugees somewhere in the country do not count. And nobody can say the turkish government is not in control of some areas of the country.
But i agree, all countries in the middle east are somewhat suspicious, including UAE and Qatar.
 
RedChili
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 9:35 am

Something which we all need to remember is that ISIL WANTS people to be afraid, and they WANT the world to believe that they're scoring victories. Further, they are fully aware that foreign intelligence agencies are able to listen to their phone calls and read their emails. So, it is entirely possible that the phone calls or whatever that U.S./British intelligence have unccovered, in which ISIL terrorists congratulated each other with a "job well done," was actually intentional misleading information.

And so far, that's the only thing we've got that indicates that it was a bomb. It's only some unspecified phone calls where some terrorist made claims that it was his or her doing. How do we know that he's not lying?

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 260):
But ISIL or sympathizers among airport workers ? Refugees somewhere in the country do not count. And nobody can say the turkish government is not in control of some areas of the country.
But i agree, all countries in the middle east are somewhat suspicious, including UAE and Qatar.

There are plenty of ISIL sympathizers in the West that have volunteered to fight for ISIL in Syria and Iraq. Which leads me to suspect that there are probably ISIL symphatizers among the workers at LHR and JFK too.
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RedChili
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 10:28 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 261):
Something which we all need to remember is that ISIL WANTS people to be afraid, and they WANT the world to believe that they're scoring victories.

Let me just add a few more points:

ISIL wants to take control of the entire Middle East, and one way of doing that is to create chaos. Islamic militants have often targeted the Egyptian tourist industry, in an effort to destabilize the Egyptian economy, thus paving the way for their take-over of Egypt.

And the amazing thing here is that the U.S. and British governments are actually helping them doing this by spreading rumors of "intelligence" suggesting that ISIL bombed the Russian plane. It's not so surprising, really, because this is the same that Obama and NATO has done in both Libya and Syria. The chaos that exists in those countries today are by and large a product of Obama's catastrophic Middle East policy.
Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
 
abba
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 10:35 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 261):
And so far, that's the only thing we've got that indicates that it was a bomb.

I think that there are a few more things - each of which can be debated, though. This includes:

1: photos that indicate something going from the inside out consistent with an explosion including other such marks.
2: reports of a sound on the VCR that is consistent with an explosion from a bomb
3: video of a plane suffering some kind of explosion in mid air.
4: some kind of responsibility claim from ISIS

I agree that all these facts can all be debated and questioned but we certainly do have more than what has been snapped up from the internet that this was indeed a criminal act of terrorism. And I agree with your point that this might actually be fake as well.
 
abba
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 10:39 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 262):
It's not so surprising, really, because this is the same that Obama and NATO has done in both Libya and Syria. The chaos that exists in those countries today are by and large a product of Obama's catastrophic Middle East policy.

.. but has as it main roots the even worse policy of GW which included the war in Iraq. ISIS is a direct result of that! I don't think Obama and NATO as such could have done much - save for the intervention in Libya - to save us from the situation we are in today.
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 10:58 am

Quoting Airbus747 (Reply 256):
Quoting 2175301 (Reply 251):
and anyone appropriately trained can walk into most households in America and make an explosive based on common household products

Is your name MacGyver?

Not necessary. Anybody with second semester college chemistry knowledge can build a bomb with readily available chemicals. Btw., I also used to hold a blasting licence, though mine is expired.

Jan
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pvjin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 11:02 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 261):
And so far, that's the only thing we've got that indicates that it was a bomb. It's only some unspecified phone calls where some terrorist made claims that it was his or her doing. How do we know that he's not lying?

The fact a modern jetliner broke up midflight at 30k feet in perfect weather conditions without a warning already makes a bomb very likely theory. I don't believe for a second that Airbus in early 2000's wasn't capable enough to repair their aircraft after a tailstrike.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 262):
And the amazing thing here is that the U.S. and British governments are actually helping them doing this by spreading rumors of "intelligence" suggesting that ISIL bombed the Russian plane.

I'm fairly sure they KNOW it was bombed down. Either way, the in all of Northern Africa as a tourist your chances of facing a sudden, violent death are certainly significantly higher than in the other side of the Mediterranean.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 11:22 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 261):
Something which we all need to remember is that ISIL WANTS people to be afraid, and they WANT the world to believe that they're scoring victories.

Sure, but fear does not crash airplanes.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 261):
Which leads me to suspect that there are probably ISIL symphatizers among the workers at LHR and JFK too.

Not beyond belief, but USA and UK are still countries where law and order are firmly established. In Egypt, this is not so sure. And Egypt is not unique.
 
F9Animal
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 11:57 am

Quoting Lowbank (Reply 257):

The UK is now carrying out a review of all airports security, they say it will take some time but if they find lax security at any airport they will suspend flights until its sorted.
as far as Sharm is concerned I know several people who have been and really like the place, some are booked to go in the near future.
personally i have looked at all the areas that are possible areas of concern and will not travel there. Sharm was one of those, i do probably pay double the price for my holiday though

I will never understand this way of thinking. Why oh why does it take blood to bring change to the way security is handled. To be blunt, I am surprised a situation like this hasn't happened sooner. What boils me is, these fools are sifting through aircraft wreckage, and tagging bodies..... And suggesting that all airports security be reviewed? Why does it take blood to make change. If this was a bomb, it was preventable.
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flyingturtle
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 11:58 am

The focus on SSH strikes me as odd. As a terrorist, I would have prepared and trained cells at other destinations beforehand in order to wreak havoc as soon as the world focuses on SSH. Or is SSH a one-of-a-kind airport, and there are no other destinations in the region where western tourists could be attacked? I've not heard of Saudi tourist resorts on the Red sea... and ETH has notched up airport security a long time ago.


David
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pvjin
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 12:00 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 268):
And suggesting that all airports security be reviewed? Why does it take blood to make change. If this was a bomb, it was preventable.

As long as every passenger who boards an airplane doesn't go through an X-ray machine I have some serious doubts about ability of any airport security to make it absolutely sure that a bomb doesn't get on board.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
 
ABpositive
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 12:18 pm

It's hard to follow so many posts, so appologies if this has been already answered.

Russian government and the airline were very quick to point blame to a terrorist attack shortly after the crash. I was sceptical of their statements because they came out so soon, but now more and more evidence is pointing in that direction.
Did the Russian government have some early intelligence into this matter or did they just get lucky in the blame game?
 
lowbank
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 12:21 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 268):

I completely agree, but they are always trying to balance the queues and complaints about security checks. personally i would go through 4 hours of checks if I knew I would get there safely and back again.
i also cannot understand all the people complaining about the xray scanners. if you dont like them dont go. they should be implemented as soon as possible

whats really frustrating me is the complete silence from the investigation team, not seen any official comments. its all sources close to and its then missleading press statements.

at least with MH there was official comment, even if they got it wrong at times.

I am confident that airbus people will have ruled in or out the tailstike theory, and that could be communicated officially.
Every days a school day.
 
ltbewr
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 12:26 pm

What if, assuming it was a bomb, that whoever placed it was not an ISIS sympathizer but someone who has a grudge against the Egyptian government, military or even the foreign guests ?

Much of the tourism facilities at SSH are owned and operated by the Egyptian military and government owned companies. There is no doubt that a bomb on a plane full of vacationers would be a huge way to get revenge on the government and military. I bet too that many of the workers there treated like crap by their bosses, live in overcrowded and poor conditions, may have to pay huge parts of their income to their bosses to get and keep their jobs.

I wouldn't be surprised that visitors treat the 'help' poorly, I doubt the visitors tip much so resentment could build up. Some who are religious may become angry at the consumption of alcohol, women with minimal clothing on at the beaches and other behaviors offensive to some stricter adherents of Islam so may want to take actions against them.

One party who has been publicly silent and has plenty of incentive to push for a ISIS backed bomb is Israel. ISIS and other anti-Israeli groups are in the bordering areas of Israel in the Egyptian held Sinai and of course, Syria. Such anti-Israel groups may be giving support to the angry residents of the Gaza Strip controlled by Israel. I wouldn't be surprised that some of the 'intelligence' as to a bomb is sourced from Israel and could be flawed or at least biased for their own (and the USA's and Russia's) reasons to protect their countries.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 12:27 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 270):
As long as every passenger who boards an airplane doesn't go through an X-ray machine I have some serious doubts about ability of any airport security to make it absolutely sure that a bomb doesn't get on board.

Great, but it's very likely the bomb was not carried onto the plane by a passenger in this case.

I've recently completed a number of flights in South America. Not once did I have to remove my shoes, take my laptop out of my bag or throw away the bottle of water that's always in my backpack. However, the security screenings still felt meaningful and certainly not the sham that reports from SSH suggest is the case there.

Absolute security is a fantasy.
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scbriml
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 12:31 pm

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 273):
What if, assuming it was a bomb, that whoever placed it was not an ISIS sympathizer but someone who has a grudge against the Egyptian government, military or even the foreign guests ?

Sadly, it's much simpler to just walk along the beach with a couple of AK-47s and shoot everyone in sight.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 12:48 pm

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 273):
What if, assuming it was a bomb, that whoever placed it was not an ISIS sympathizer but someone who has a grudge against the Egyptian government, military or even the foreign guests ?

Easily possible.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 275):
Sadly, it's much simpler to just walk along the beach with a couple of AK-47s and shoot everyone in sight.

There are too many security forces at the beach, you would not achieve much. Such attacks have happened in the past near sights.
 
lowbank
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 1:13 pm

i am not saying we can have absolute security, but there are things that could be done.

i am regitered with Monarch and fly with them on my hols. they could easily do background checks and I would be happy for them to do that.
i book 6 months in advance so plenty of time
based on the checks you can have a risk rating and have airport checks which are based in your risk.

if you book within two weeks of flying, you become high risk and need to get there a lot earlier.

it can all be done, its about cost and time.
Every days a school day.
 
Rivet42
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 1:16 pm

Quoting dvautier (Reply 237):
Here we have 7 days and no sign of explosive residue

Ah, so you are a member of the forensic team itself? Why didn't you say so before...? We thought you were just speculating. Oh, wait...

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 245):
They're apparently getting that from the US, who got it from a single ISIS source that was a lot less specific than these reports make it out to be

Actually I was under the impression the UK was acting on intelligence from its own monitoring centre, GCHQ.

Quoting dvautier (Reply 247):
I'm afraid that you are wrong about Russia. The Russians have said that no conclusions can be drawn yet about what caused the crash.

How do you explain Putin stopping all flights to Egypt yesterday? Not just Metrojet, not just SSH. That is a response to a terrorist threat, whichever way you care to spin it.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 252 - quoting dvautier (Reply 247)):
Kettle, pot, black.

Quite. Or more specifically, "I don't accept your agenda because it doesn't fit with my agenda." Too much of that going on by far.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 261):
And so far, that's the only thing we've got that indicates that it was a bomb.

Ah, another member of the forensics team at the heart of the investigation.
Really? Please guys, come clean. If you are so close to the investigation that you can make such definitive statements on their behalf, please make that clear.

Quoting Lowbank (Reply 272):
I am confident that airbus people will have ruled in or out the tailstike theory, and that could be communicated officially.

Yes, I thought Airbus had already claimed no evidence of structural failure as the cause (as opposed to a consequence), but I can't find that report anywhere.

Let's hope the press conference at 3pm (GMT) today clears up some of the speculation, although I fear this becoming increasingly political and we may have to rely upon agencies from outside the region to publish their own findings.

Riv'
I travel, therefore I am.
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 1:33 pm

Quoting Lowbank (Reply 277):
i am regitered with Monarch and fly with them on my hols. they could easily do background checks and I would be happy for them to do that.

I doubt Monarch has access to security intelligence databases.

Quoting Lowbank (Reply 277):
i book 6 months in advance so plenty of time
Quoting Lowbank (Reply 277):
if you book within two weeks of flying, you become high risk and need to get there a lot earlier.

I travel 3-4 times a week on multiple airlines, and often book within hours of traveling. So do hundreds of thousands of business travelers. Meaningful background security checks take 6-12 months.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
osiris30
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 1:38 pm

Quoting dvautier (Reply 247):
2) Can you give me an example of an explosion that leaves no residue, but at the same time can be planted on a plane?

In your haste to be an arrogant jerk, you've failed to ask the right question. You've failed to ask: explosives that wont leave a detectable residue when the area they were used in is consumed by a jet fuel fed fire. I'm sure theres all sort of "residue" on every plane crash in history. The question is whether it will stand out from the background chemical traces of everything else. remember we needn't be talking about high ex stuff here. With unfettered access you could put any size device on-board you want. Think about that for a minute. The possibilities are endless.

Quoting Airbus747 (Reply 256):
Is your name MacGyver?

The web is quite literally full of diy explosive recipes. And the poster you replied to was quiet correct. There is a mountain of stufd in your house that will react chemically and if in a sealed container then explode. You could likely construct a device capable of killing someone in the average kitchen using supplies from said kitchen.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
RedChili
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 1:48 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 263):
I think that there are a few more things - each of which can be debated, though. This includes:

1: photos that indicate something going from the inside out consistent with an explosion including other such marks.
2: reports of a sound on the VCR that is consistent with an explosion from a bomb
3: video of a plane suffering some kind of explosion in mid air.
4: some kind of responsibility claim from ISIS

1. Those photos can easily be explained by other factors, such as the seat railings which are the perfect shape, size and position for the hole in the fuselage.
2. Anonymous experts have reported the sound of an explosion, but we don't know yet whether that sound could be explained with a fuselage break-up.
3. That video ostensibly showed a rocket hitting the plane, and "nobody" really believes in the rocket theory anymore.
4. It's natural that they want the "glory" of having done this.

Quoting abba (Reply 264):
.. but has as it main roots the even worse policy of GW which included the war in Iraq. ISIS is a direct result of that! I don't think Obama and NATO as such could have done much - save for the intervention in Libya - to save us from the situation we are in today.

Well, Carter created the disaster in Afghanistan by supporting what later became Al Qaeda. Bush created a mess in Iraq. In my opinion, knowing all of this, it's totally astounding that Obama made the same mistakes in Syria and Libya, and partly also by supporting the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 266):

The fact a modern jetliner broke up midflight at 30k feet in perfect weather conditions without a warning already makes a bomb very likely theory.

It's one possible theory, but there are others.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 266):
I don't believe for a second that Airbus in early 2000's wasn't capable enough to repair their aircraft after a tailstrike.

Nor do I, but human beings make mistakes. And we don't know what has happened to the plane since 2001 that could have further weakened any spot where Airbus may have made some mistake.

Quoting ABpositive (Reply 271):
Russian government and the airline were very quick to point blame to a terrorist attack shortly after the crash.

The airline, yes, the government, no. The Russian government has never publicly said that it's a terror attack.

Quoting Rivet42 (Reply 278):
Ah, another member of the forensics team at the heart of the investigation.
Really? Please guys, come clean. If you are so close to the investigation that you can make such definitive statements on their behalf, please make that clear.

When I use the word "we," I'm naturally talking about the public.
Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
 
aryonoco
Posts: 680
Joined: Fri May 11, 2012 1:51 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 1:54 pm

Quoting mow (Reply 259):
Why AYT, for example, is not on the list?

Because decades of fighting the PKK and earlier, the leftist guerillas, who were both very good at making bombs, has made Turkish police very good at this stuff.

Sure, every once in a while they still manage to blow a sound bomb at Taksim Sq, but for most intents and purposes, Istanbul, Izmir, Antalya and North and West of Turkey in general are as safe as any European city (and personally I've found them safer than many Eastern European cities).

Quoting mow (Reply 259):
Highest security standards at the airports and no corruption? Don't think so.

Have you actually been to Turkey? You cannot compare its security with Egypt. In countries such as Egypt, Iran and Jordan (to name a few), low level corruption is rampant, it is very easy to say bribe a police officer to get out of a speeding ticket. Turkey doesn't have that problem. Sure there is high level corruption at the higher levels, but good luck trying to bribe their police or security personnel.
 
lowbank
Posts: 503
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:10 pm

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 2:15 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 279):
Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 279):

Monarch may not have access, give them access.
the belgian flight did background checks pretty quickly and have banned some people.

simply register with the airlines you fly with, if dont you simply get treated as high risk.
we do the same at work (late booking etc), lots of people are frequent flyers, you will get the same perks of airmiles, airport lounges for free etc. perhaps the background check can be done by the employer, surely that should make you low risk anyway. my employer does significant background checks due to us making military parts.

what I am saying also does not fix the possibility of a airport worker planting anything on a plane.
Every days a school day.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 2:17 pm

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 282):
Turkey doesn't have that problem. Sure there is high level corruption at the higher levels, but good luck trying to bribe their police or security personnel.

Never tried with security staff, and Turkey is certainly far better than any arab country, not least it will be nearly impossible to infiltrate an arab - but i would not put it above them. And you do not necessarily need corruption, someone with a grudge at the right place will do.
 
Rivet42
Posts: 608
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 2:58 pm

Quoting Kaiarahi (Reply 279):
I travel 3-4 times a week on multiple airlines, and often book within hours of traveling. So do hundreds of thousands of business travelers. Meaningful background security checks take 6-12 months.

Exactly.
Moreover, the sheer volume of data relating to every passenger on every flight would overwhelm the agencies involved and if departures were to be dependent upon these checks the whole industry would quickly grind to halt.

Let's not also forget the 'Christmas Day Bomber', who was known to various agencies, was even on the CIA's register, and yet he managed to board a flight in AMS to USA with explosive materials in his clothing. Thus every layer of 'security' failed, and he was only foiled by his fellow passengers.

Here, with SSH and the doomed Metrojet flight, we are dealing with - most likely (**speculation alert!) - something quite different, as in access to the aircraft on the ground rather than passenger security. From the airport's point of view that may well be part of the same issue, but from an intelligence angle it is quite a different matter. How many airport staff are actually employed directly by the airports these days? The layers of sub-contracting makes the process of background-checking far more complicated, even here in Europe, where immigration and residency concerns are making id confirmation routine in mundane transactions such as renting a flat. Imagine how unreliable those checks may be in countries going through periods of political, social and economic upheaval - such as Egypt.

And then there's the widely reported endemic corruption at SSH itself...

If this turns out not to be a bomb, then it still should serve as a very loud and blunt wake-up call.

Riv'
I travel, therefore I am.
 
Backseater
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:14 pm

Egypt press conference just started

[Edited 2015-11-07 07:17:30]
 
lowbank
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:33 pm

Well glad we have now had an official statement.

Main info was the noise in the last second of the CVR.
Every days a school day.
 
Rivet42
Posts: 608
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:36 pm

Quoting BackSeater (Reply 286):
Egypt press conference just started

Yeah, nothing new though, unfortunately.
It was basically a statement read out on behalf of the investigation committee, making the following points:

1) Scattering of wreckage consistent with in-flight breakup
2) Initial observations don't point to any specific cause
3) Data recorder last point shows climbing through 30,880ft with autopilot engaged
4) Voice recorder ends with a loud noise, not yet analysed
5) Foreign intelligence has not been shared with the investigation team
6) All scenarios still being considered

I think that's it.

Riv'
I travel, therefore I am.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:39 pm

Quoting Lowbank (Reply 283):
Monarch may not have access, give them access.
the belgian flight did background checks pretty quickly and have banned some people.

Why would i give my most private data to an airline. That is a security risk in itself ! Why should i trust them ?
I am blond, blue eyed, have a germanic-sounding name, am in my fifties and a little overweight. I am a no-risk-at-all passenger - should be obvious to everyone  

But you do not need lots of very private data if you want to enhance security. You just have to dump political correctness and anti-discrimination and go by where terrorists usually come from or which background they have - and you still almost always will catch innocent people who just happen to have the misfortune of a wrong name or place of birth or looks.
 
Backseater
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:47 pm

Ayman el-Mokadem, Egyptian rep on the investigative team: " we are exploring all scenarios, explosion of lithium batteries, of fuel tank or any other explosion"
 
WIederling
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:56 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 269):
Or is SSH a one-of-a-kind airport,

probably the only destination that brings IS and Russians together as a "hint".

Keep in mind that the US has bombed ISIS ( extremely ineffectively me semeth )
for what 2 years and no retaliation happened.
The RF bombs for a fortnight and lo and behold they get stuck by a retaliatory terrorist attack.
Combine with screaming queen McCain lambasting the loss of "their" terrorists
and we have a hint who could have footed the bill for this act.
Murphy is an optimist
 
lowbank
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:00 pm

I come from little old Burnley in the UK and there have been arrests all around me on terrorism grounds. Blackburn, Bradford etc. Not sure you can just concentrate on areas where you think.
It was only about 12 years ago we had riots based on racial tensions . I can tell you it's worse now than it was then, the racial tension that is.
Every days a school day.
 
abba
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:47 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 270):
As long as every passenger who boards an airplane doesn't go through an X-ray machine I have some serious doubts about ability of any airport security to make it absolutely sure that a bomb doesn't get on board.

My daughter, who have done security studies at Warwick, use to call much of what they do in the airports for "security circus" meant to make people feel secure rather than making them safe...

Quoting scbriml (Reply 275):
adly, it's much simpler to just walk along the beach with a couple of AK-47s and shoot everyone in sight.

Sure - as we have seen in the school killings in the USA and Breivick in Norway who were all homegrown and hit their own compatriots. However it has ever since the 70'ies been an iconic act to bring down an airliner even if it would be possible to kill as many - or perhaps even more - people in other ways.

There is - for terrorists - some symbolic meaning in bringing down an airliner and I am afraid that the circuity circus in the airports works contra-intentionally: It doesn't make us any safer - rather the opposite. In the mad worldview of terrorists they send a stronger message by downing and aircraft than by killing as many (or more) people in eg the tube. Now in the airport the governments very visibly tries to keep us as safe as they possibly can. By getting around even this level of security, terrorists prove to the general public that even here they can hit us.They tell us that we can not be safe anywhere. This, I believe, is their point.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 281):
1. Those photos can easily be explained by other factors, such as the seat railings which are the perfect shape, size and position for the hole in the fuselage.
2. Anonymous experts have reported the sound of an explosion, but we don't know yet whether that sound could be explained with a fuselage break-up.
3. That video ostensibly showed a rocket hitting the plane, and "nobody" really believes in the rocket theory anymore.
4. It's natural that they want the "glory" of having done this.

As I said: All the evidence can be debated. Nothing is at this stage conclusive - but there are more than what has been taken on the internet.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 281):
Well, Carter created the disaster in Afghanistan by supporting what later became Al Qaeda. Bush created a mess in Iraq. In my opinion, knowing all of this, it's totally astounding that Obama made the same mistakes in Syria and Libya, and partly also by supporting the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt

In this way we can go all the way back to the British and the CIA who brought down the democratically elected government in Iran as they didn't want to sell their oil to the USA at the prices promised by the UK government as a way of saying "thank you" for US helping them in the WWII...

Many mistakes has taken place in the ME. However GW's invasion of Iraq is the most stupid thing that has happened in foreign policy ever since Pearl Harbor.
 
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GlenP
Posts: 263
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 5:10 pm

Quoting Flanders (Reply 248):
Apparently a British airplane landing at Sharm El Sheikh was almost brought down by a rocket back in august. "No terrorism but a military exercise gone wrong"... yeah right!? We should have stopped flying there months ago!

Perfectly reasonable explanation.

Contrary to what many think, SAMs are not infallible & they do go wrong on a regular basis; if only because old stock tends to be used for live firing exercises.

I can remember plenty of instances of Blowpipe merrily doing it's own thing when launched, never actually responding to guidance commands & nearly coming straight back down to land on the range firing point.

The worst instance was back in the early 19080s, when e had one go ballistic, fail to self destruct & only explode at the end of its run, over the monastery, on Caldy Island, just ads the monks were sitting down to dinner.

We should also take into account that, even the Daily Mail, is only reporting that there was 1000 feet (approx. 330m) separation between the missile & the aircraft. That isn't really all that close ^ there was never any danger of the missile detonating, even using a proximity fused warhead.
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
cat3appr50
Posts: 172
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 5:11 pm

First off, in my last post I overlooked the decimal point, the child found was reported to be 8.0 km (4.3 NM) from the primary crash site, and not 80 km.

Regarding the Egyptian crash investigation news conference this morning, IMO the following critical questions arise:

- Why didn’t the exact Z time of the CVR “noise” incident get disclosed relative to the exact Flight departure time and exact time of the cessation of the DFDR data which were noted in the news conference? The time synchronization of unusual CVR events and DFDR cessation and monitored data anomalies is critical. Did DFDR data continue after the CVR “noise” incident?

- Why not say that cockpit conversations were normal and typical up to the point of the noted “noise” incident and note the sudden noise incident as unusual relative to normal/typical cockpit conversations. There really needed to be some kind of descriptor (e.g. “serious”, “unusual”, “non-normal”, “high amplitude/db”) instead of just noting a “noise” incident.

- Was there a pressure hammer/spike recorded on the DFDR monitoring of the cabin differential pressure (psid- inside of cabin to outside of the aircraft) and cabin altitude (ft.)? What was the Z time of this spike relative to the Z time of the CVR noted “noise” incident?

- If after a week of not finding some crash debris (which is the most critical debris relative to parts of the aft section of the aircraft and THS and any aircraft debris at/near the child found 8 KM away from the primary crash site, there was amazingly no mention of the urgent measures employed to find this critical debris. That is worrisome.

- Why was there no mention in the news conference that simultaneous investigations are occurring relative to airport terminal surveillance video logs (including those within the cargo handling area and aircraft area proper), interviews of all airport employees and contracted aircraft service employees, security swipe card logs timed with surveillance videos, etc.?
 
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GlenP
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 5:26 pm

Because the purpose of the statement seems to have been an attempt to calm down speculation & say, "Let us get on with our job."

At present they are still interpreting the black box data, they haven't ruled any cause out, nor have they determined any main avenue of enquiry.

It has also been released elsewhere: http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsCont...-footage-at-Sharm-airport,-cr.aspx that they are hacking surveillance camera footage.

Even if this investigation were taking place in the USA, one would not expect all information to be made available at this early stage, except to possibly calm down speculation.
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
EMAman
Posts: 206
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 7:13 pm

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 6:35 pm

Quoting abba (Reply 293):
My daughter, who have done security studies at Warwick, use to call much of what they do in the airports for "security circus" meant to make people feel secure rather than making them safe...

I partially agree with this sentiment, however, you can never dispute that over the last 15 years the amount of successful airline terrorism events is far far less than in the period 1985 - 2001, so international security measures must have had some effect, even if certainly not foolproof?
 
WIederling
Posts: 9028
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 6:54 pm

Quoting EMAman (Reply 297):
so international security measures must have had some effect, even if certainly not foolproof?

Before 911 highjacking made sense as a method of political blackmail.
You had a good chance of keeping the paxes quiet due to them seeing
a chance to survive in compromise and laying low.

After that date no longer.
Your life as a pax was by design forfeit and any activity against
the highjackers could potentially only improve on pax standing.

As a method of political force 911 was completely nonsensical.
The damage so large that it causes/caused unlimited retaliation.
( this is one reason why I think that 911 was not what it was said to be.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
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pvjin
Posts: 3614
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2012 4:52 pm

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 4

Sat Nov 07, 2015 7:03 pm

Quoting WIederling (Reply 298):

I think the fact we aren't seeing hijackings in these days has very little to do with pax being more likely to fight against the hijackers, and everything to do with the fact getting into the cockpit in flight is very much more difficult nowadays than pre 9/11.

Like we saw in the Germanwings case there's very little people outside the cockpit can do if there's a suicidal pilot or hijackers in the cockpit, behind a locked door.
"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." - Martin Luther King Jr
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