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KarelXWB
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Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Thu Nov 05, 2015 9:00 am

Please continue on discussion from the previous thread here.

Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 2 (by lightsaber Oct 23 2015 in Civil Aviation)
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Thu Nov 05, 2015 9:57 am

To twist the story a bit, GE might still offer a new engine for the A380neo:

General Electric could still make new A380 engine
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N14AZ
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:06 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 1):
To twist the story a bit, GE might still offer a new engine for the A380neo:

General Electric could still make new A380 engine

Hmmm, I became quit excited when I read your post but that changed directly after reading the first line of that article...

Quote:
Company ready to reconsider position if Airbus can find more customers

I would have written "IF" instead of "if".... Will they find a significant number of customers in the not too distant future? I think we all agree the answer is "no". Maybe next decade, we will see*)...

______________________________________________________________________
*) "we will see" seems to become the most often used expression on the A380-threads....
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:04 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 1):
To twist the story a bit, GE might still offer a new engine for the A380neo...

If they have lost Emirates to RR going forward, I can't see them bothering as their other customers (AF, QR, ET, KE) together won't be enough even if they replaced their entire current fleets with A380neos on a 1:1 basis.
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:26 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
If they have lost Emirates to RR going forward, I can't see them bothering as their other customers (AF, QR, ET, KE) together won't be enough even if they replaced their entire current fleets with A380neos on a 1:1 basis.

That depends on the engine offered. A new engine surely not, but if we are talking about versions of the Trent1000 why not offer a GenX version?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:37 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 4):
That depends on the engine offered. A new engine surely not, but if we are talking about versions of the Trent1000 why not offer a GenX version?

It could work. The GEnx-2B for the 747-8 currently maxes out at 69,000lbs and that is not enough for the A380. So they'd probably need to use the GEnx1B from the 787 as the foundation (as they did for the GEnx-1A for the original A350).
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Thu Nov 05, 2015 7:13 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
If they have lost Emirates to RR going forward, I can't see them bothering as their other customers (AF, QR, ET, KE) together won't be enough even if they replaced their entire current fleets with A380neos on a 1:1 basis.

I don't think GE/EA/Pratt think they lost out to RR already. I am sure its worth putting a bid together.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
It could work. The GEnx-2B for the 747-8 currently maxes out at 69,000lbs and that is not enough for the A380. So they'd probably need to use the GEnx1B from the 787 as the foundation (as they did for the GEnx-1A for the original A350).

GE has not done a Trent-TEN-like-PIP - if we want to call it that, for the 787. I could see them offering this in conjunction with that once the GE9x lessons are learnt. Timing is pretty close.

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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:18 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
It could work. The GEnx-2B for the 747-8 currently maxes out at 69,000lbs and that is not enough for the A380. So they'd probably need to use the GEnx1B from the 787 as the foundation (as they did for the GEnx-1A for the original A350).
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 6):
GE has not done a Trent-TEN-like-PIP - if we want to call it that, for the 787. I could see them offering this in conjunction with that once the GE9x lessons are learnt. Timing is pretty close.

If Airbus doesn't stretch the NEO - EK seems uneager for that - a PIP'd and slightly-bumped GEnx might be better than a TXWB.

An unstretched A380 could lose several tons of MTOW and retain its current payload/range performance. As long as it can still do DXB-LAX that's probably good enough. Having more range just isn't that great because there's not a lot of cargo room anyway.

Meanwhile, the GEnx would save 6-10,000lbs engine dry weight+systems versus GP7200 and TXWB. It would also save drag versus both engines - fan diameter would be smaller (111in vs. T900's 116in).

Of course you'd be losing some bending relief in the wings, and that might cause some problems. But engineers often find, later in program life, that the wing has some structural margin for which they overbuilt earlier to avoid disaster.

Between the weight and drag savings, lower engine mx, probably lower engine acquisition cost, and lower weight-related operating fees, it seems likely that a GEnx NEO would have lower operating cost than a Txwb NEO. Twxb has only ~2% SFC edge, and the weight difference alone would likely cancel that out.

Would GE be willing to do it? Not sure. They're bearish on the NEO, but I think their public comments have been about doing a new engine for it, not about hanging an old engine on it.

Bjorn/Ferpe at Leeham saw a GEnx NEO as preferable to a Txwb NEO in last year's analysis as well. Perhaps the reason that Airbus is now floating the Txwb idea is that GE isn't willing to do this.
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 06, 2015 8:10 am

Why should RR not go with the Trent 1000/7000 and not the XWB?
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 10:59 am

Emirates urges Airbus to 'get on with' developing A380neo.

http://reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0SX0BB20151108
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 11:27 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 8):
Emirates urges Airbus to 'get on with' developing A380neo.

It simply isn't going to happen, in my view.

Only Emirates is ordering A380s in any numbers - and even they only seem to be looking at 20-30 a year.

Given increasing engine power, the future, as far as anyone can tell, now seems to be based on 'large twins' - particularly the up-to-400-seat B779X now being developed by Boeing. 'Big fours' - whether A380s or B747s - seem to be as dead as the dodo, just plain 'out-of-date'?

[Edited 2015-11-08 03:30:11]
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 11:32 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 10):
It simply isn't going to happen, in my view.

Only Emirates is ordering A380s in any numbers - and even they only seem to be looking at 20-30 a year.

The future, as far as anyone can tell, now seems to be based on 'large twins' - particularly the up-to-400-seat B779X now being developed by Boeing. 'Big fours' - whether A380s or B747s - seem to be as dead as the dodo, just plain 'out-of-date'?

[/quote]

Oh no the forum was so peaceful for the past few weeks with the disappearance. Why now??????

Only Emirates is ordering A380s in any numbers - and can order up to 200 neo versions.

The future, as far as anyone can tell, now seems to be based on efficient aircraft - particularly neo version of existing aircraft like B777X and A380neo plus the MAX and NEO narrowboddies. 'Big fours' - whether A380s or B747s - still selling well with new orders for the 748 from CA and we may see new customers in 2016. Let John Leahy do his work.
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 12:25 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 1):
To twist the story a bit, GE might still offer a new engine for the A380neo:
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 6):
I don't think GE/EA/Pratt think they lost out to RR already. I am sure its worth putting a bid together.

If EK already signed a RR contract what's GE hoping to gain?
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 12:28 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 10):
Given increasing engine power, the future, as far as anyone can tell, now seems to be based on 'large twins' -

Look I think you've said this about 10,000 times now. Anything else you want to say?
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 12:34 pm

I am more and more inclined to think that EK is holding its regional widebody order as another carrot for Airbus to develop the A380NEO.

Basically, Sir Clark seems to be saying, in not so many words, that if Airbus develops the A380NEO, he'll not only order it, but the A350 as well.

Also interesting that he seems to be saying that a 10-13% improvement in efficiency would be enough for him to place his order. In the previous thread, I suggested that a simple NEO with some internal refinements would get to about 14% fuel improvement (without a stretch or a new wing). A lot of posters have rightly pointed out that that won't be enough to compete with 779's CASM. But would that really be necessary?

EA's interest in the NEO is also interesting, though I feel it's a bit too little too late.
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 1:46 pm

AAB has said today that QR would consider ordering the A380neo to replace current A380's

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL8N1330H820151108
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 1:57 pm

Quoting qf789 (Reply 15):

QR just took delivery of their first one not long ago so I would take that as pinch of salt. Not only is AAB unreliable but he would have no reason to order the NEO other than for expansion and growth. This is unlike EK whom want the NEO ready for 2020 when their first A380s come off lease. I would think that should Airbus have luck with an earlier introduction of the NEO, they would need to target existing airlines first that would have a potential need for replacement and expansion such as EK, QF, SQ. But that is way too few to make such project justifiable.

The idea that EK is using the A350 as a carrot I think is overrated. If the 789 and 78X were simply not there in performance they won't order it anyway. If it's better for their needs than the A359 then they'll get it. But this is for a separate thread..

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 14):
But would that really be necessary?

This is likely where the stretch will come in to take it beyond the 10-13% fuel burn advantage using XWB engine tech.
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 2:03 pm

G'day

Quoting qf789 (Reply 15):
AB has said today that QR would consider ordering the A380neo to replace current A380's

More of the "mine is bigger than yours" crap, they cannot afford to take all of the few units they have on order so why talk about taking replacement NEO's which may be even bigger and more difficult to fill.

May I suggest AAB take a U-turn on this one...   

For a change a U-turn would be appropriate      


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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 3:01 pm

It looks like the ball has dropped in Dubai for the A380 NEO.


http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/08/emira...dy-to-go-with-new-a380-launch.html
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 3:15 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 18):
It looks like the ball has dropped in Dubai for the A380 NEO.

Yes, it's ready to go, EXCEPT for those pesky commercial aspects...

Quote:

"We are working with Airbus with regard to trying to improve the A380. There is a template on the drawing board and they are ready to go. They've just got to get the commercial aspects of it done," Emirates President Tim Clark told CNBC at the Dubai Airshow.
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 3:26 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 19):

Yes, it's ready to go, EXCEPT for those pesky commercial aspects...

It does imply that they've got a reasonably firm view of how the A380 will be configured and powered. It would seem to be happening in that case.
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 3:55 pm

What caught my attention is this quote from the Reuters piece:

"Clark told reporters at the Dubai Airshow that Emirates has the option to convert the second half of its most recent order for current-generation A380s, which will be powered by Rolls-Royce, into the proposed A380neo, which could run on engines similar to those used on the Rolls-powered A350."

How many aircraft does "second half of its most recent order" translate into? Does it mean 25, i.e., half of 50?

In any event, wouldn't this type of conversion be even more vexing to Airbus in terms of keep the CEO lines limping along? -ir
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 4:18 pm

Quoting IslandRob (Reply 21):
In any event, wouldn't this type of conversion be even more vexing to Airbus in terms of keep the CEO lines limping along?

Well when Emirates ordered 50 777-300ERs in I believe 2011, they had the option to convert half of them to whatever new 777 Boeing would put forward (it was the 777+ at the time, I believe). In the end, EK will take all 50 as 777-300ERs and placed a new order for the 777X so we could see the same scenario play out with the A380 / A380neo.
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 4:22 pm

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 14):
Basically, Sir Clark seems to be saying, in not so many words, that if Airbus develops the A380NEO, he'll not only order it, but the A350 as well.

Hasn't implied anything as such.

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 14):
10-13% improvement in efficiency would be enough for him to place his order

10-13% is huge, maybe that's the reason why EK is ready to order.
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 5:42 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 12):
If EK already signed a RR contract what's GE hoping to gain?

I don't think RR has a signed contract for the A380neo.

Quoting PhoenixVIP (Reply 16):
This is likely where the stretch will come in to take it beyond the 10-13% fuel burn advantage using XWB engine tech.

Bregier said today at the show that he doesn't anticipate a stretch on this version of the neo. Maybe next. I will work on finding the article.

Quoting jacobin777 (Reply 23):
10-13% is huge, maybe that's the reason why EK is ready to order.

To be fair, EK has been ready for a while. 10% would be enough for them I would suspect. Not enough for Airbus though.

tortugamon
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 5:44 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 24):
Quoting par13del (Reply 12):
If EK already signed a RR contract what's GE hoping to gain?

I don't think RR has a signed contract for the A380neo.

They have a signed contract from EK to supply RR engines for all future A380 (CEO) deliveries, Engine Alliance will only be on the birds they already have.
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 5:45 pm

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 20):
It does imply that they've got a reasonably firm view of how the A380 will be configured and powered.

I would hope that would be the case, the search space is pretty well bounded.

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 20):
It would seem to be happening in that case.

TC's quote, "They've just got to get the commercial aspects of it done" seems to say that EK's done its part, it's now up to Airbus.
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 5:49 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 24):
Bregier said today at the show that he doesn't anticipate a stretch on this version of the neo. Maybe next. I will work on finding the article.

If it will be a neo without a stretch, then it will be a ultra longhaul aircraft. The range/payload chart must be very impressive in that case
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 6:00 pm

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 14):
I suggested that a simple NEO with some internal refinements would get to about 14% fuel improvement (without a stretch or a new wing). A lot of posters have rightly pointed out that that won't be enough to compete with 779's CASM. But would that really be necessary?

A dense A380ceo is actually about as efficient (same CASM generally) as the 779 by published analyses. Much worse on fuel but better at everything else. In today's fuel environment it's Any NEO with a significant fuel burn delta will probably beat the 779 - at least before cargo is figured in, and probably even after.

It's probably absolutely necessary to beat the 779's CASM, even for Emirates. The issue is - what about everybody else? Can Airbus sell the NEO to anyone besides EK? They have a full technical study executed, have certainly shopped it to all the major legacy carriers, yet still no non-EK enthusiasm.

AAB says the NEO has to be "head and shoulders above" the current model to consider *replacement.* He's surely seen the plans the Airbus has, yet he's not ready to commit.

For the A380, the NEO is the Not Enough Option.

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 20):
Quoting Revelation (Reply 19):

Yes, it's ready to go, EXCEPT for those pesky commercial aspects...

It does imply that they've got a reasonably firm view of how the A380 will be configured and powered. It would seem to be happening in that case.

How does that follow? We drew it, might as well build it?
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 6:31 pm

Looks like the rumored SV order for A380ceo is unlikely to happen at Dubai:

Quote:
Asked in an interview whether Airbus still aimed to win a keenly awaited new order in 2015 for the double-decker airplane, Fabrice Bregier told Reuters, "I think so, yes, ... and if it slips into next year this is not a drama. I think we will have some new customers."
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-air...0-order-may-slip-into-2016-2015-11

Of course Bregier and Leahy have been saying "new orders/customers soon" for almost three years now, with nothing to show for it. Their credibility is suspect to say the least.

This much at least is true:

Quote:
The A380 is looking particularly competitive because of weaker oil prices, he added.

Despite the anti-quad common knowledge, the A380 actually has much better maintenance costs per passenger than the big twins and is far better on capital, flight crew, and fees. It's just a gas guzzler by today's standards.

Another interesting quote from Bregier to the Wall Street Journal:

Quote:
“We have to convince the airlines that this is an aircraft which is extremely competitive, provided you find the good routes, you market it appropriately, you redistribute your hub in a way you attract passengers,” Mr. Brégier said.

That last piece about the hub strategy is probably underrated here. The A380 requires that your hub waves are peaked for A380 arrival/departures, with enough extra capacity on the connecting legs to move 300+ connecting pax.

There are a whole lot of "ifs" to operating the A380 profitably, and airlines need to see a compelling efficiency case to make those ifs reality. It's still the case that nobody besides EK checks off those ifs frequently enough to find the A380neo attractive. After two years of marketing the NEO without positive reception, I'll be surprised if that changes.
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 6:42 pm

As the world turns on the A380NEO. I hope it happens, but the window to make it happen is shrinking...

Interesting that EK could convert half the CEO backlog. That also implies EK has other options...

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 29):
That last piece about the hub strategy is probably underrated here. The A380 requires that your hub waves are peaked for A380 arrival/departures, with enough extra capacity on the connecting legs to move 300+ connecting pax.

I believe the need to hub the A380 should be considered a given. There is too much seasonality in city pairs to run the A380 year round without connections. In many ways, I think there needs to be a 24/7 hub to ensure 200+ connecting seats (I'm going to disagree on the quantity, not the need for the connecting seats). The best way is a hub wave with 20 or fewer seats on each connecting flight as many of EK's flights do.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 29):
There are a whole lot of "ifs" to operating the A380 profitably, and airlines need to see a compelling efficiency case to make those ifs reality.

That I 100% agree with.
However, I think TK at the new IST will have the connections to look at the A380. Before then?    They will still go for frequency, but TK is getting to the point were extra seats at certain hours will benefit them. But it will take the connections enabled by the new IST.
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 6:45 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 28):
For the A380, the NEO is the Not Enough Option.

That's hilarious!!
        
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 7:07 pm

Also some news about SIA's expiring A380 leases:

Quote:
SIA in 2012 placed a follow-up order for five A380s, which are due to be delivered in 2017 and 2018. SIA intends for them to replace the A380s coming off lease rather than to be for growth. These SIA A380s were some of the first off the production line and, as would be expected for early models, do not have the efficiency and programme lessons learned from aircraft delivered later. SIA does not believe even handsome lease discounts makes this A380 cohort viable to operate.
http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...ill-dispose-of-early-models-249033

Further bad news for the poor A380... Add those frames to MH's and the Skymark order, and the CEO line has some very low-price competition. CAPA isn't hopeful that LCC's will use A380's either, as Leahy sometimes predicts:

Quote:
This suggests that if there are to be viable markets, these may well be in Asia, where much of the innovation is occurring. There growth is high, price sensitivity is high, congestion is rife and slots in short supply - and four to eight hour stage lengths can attract a variety of city pairs. Where the price is right, new buyers may emerge. That said, for the time being, this is not the likeliest option.

Anybody know the approximate fuel burn delta between the early and current A380 frames? Perhaps more a payload/range issue with the early frames?
 
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 7:30 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 25):
They have a signed contract from EK to supply RR engines for all future A380 (CEO) deliveries, Engine Alliance will only be on the birds they already have.

The fact that EK have signed with RR for their latest order of 50 A380s, and that TC is saying he has the option to convert half of his latest order to neos, ought to be a pretty big clue as to which manufacturer is most likely to be making a neo engine.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 28):
He's surely seen the plans the Airbus has, yet he's not ready to commit.

How can anyone be ready to commit? At the moment, there is nothing to commit to.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 29):
After two years of marketing the NEO without positive reception

Airbus have most definitely not been doing any such thing. They can't market an A380neo until and unless the board gives the go-ahead for a neo project. All they have been doing so far is what they do all the time with all of their other aircraft programs - talking to customers about what they would like Airbus to do.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 19):
Yes, it's ready to go, EXCEPT for those pesky commercial aspects...

From the public news and rumour mill noise, my personal suspicion is that the neo project has been quietly being put together behind the scenes for quite some time now. My guess is that the "commercial aspects" that are holding up actually signing supplier contracts, and formally announcing the project, are primarily to do with maintaining the viability of the existing A380 production line until neo production can start - something that has not been helped by the persistent neo rumours.

I believe that a viable (i.e. unit break-even or better) settled rate for the A380 line from 2018 will probably be somewhere between 20 and 25 frames a year. In order to achieve that, Airbus probably need to sell ~30 more frames for delivery in the 2018 - 2020 timeframe. If and when Airbus do finally manage to secure those orders, I would expect a neo announcement to follow pretty shortly afterwards. Let's hope that these two rumoured orders do materialise.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 28):
It's probably absolutely necessary to beat the 779's CASM, even for Emirates.

Why? Lots of Emirates routes are slot or curfew constrained, and can't take extra frequencies, so the only way to increase profitability is to use larger aircraft. And that is true, even if they are a little less efficient per seat. But even ignoring that, the multiple daily connection banks provide the most attractive (i.e. highest profit) connection options if you can maximise the numbers of passengers arriving close to the optimal time in each bank.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 30):
However, I think TK at the new IST will have the connections to look at the A380.

Me too. They already have a very large route network. What they really need now is the airport capacity to start optimising their connection banks and grow the passenger numbers.
 
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Matt6461
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 8:14 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 30):
I believe the need to hub the A380 should be considered a given. There is too much seasonality in city pairs to run the A380 year round without connections

I didn't mean to compare the A380 to a baseline of O&D only - probably no longhaul is viable without a hub, even for 788's.

I just meant to draw out what Bregier's reference to "distributing" A380 passengers means.

I think my 300 connecting pax figure is closer to the mark than your 200, but maybe it's split the difference. CX, for example, is 48% connecting traffic in total. Its intra-Asia services probably see a higher proportion of O&D than its intercontinental services, which are probably up around 60% connecting. That's probably typical of the big carriers that could use an A380 (though of course CX does not).

60% of 500 is 300...

Versus a 777, you need to keep ~100 more connecting seats in your hub bank - almost a whole narrowbody. If those 100 seats are applied to 10 connecting destinations, that's 10 more seats per flight. An airline can cover that by, e.g., upgauging from 738/A320 to 739/A321 and that would be efficient for the connecting flights.

But at reduced A380 frequencies you're only using the extra connecting capacity once or twice a day. The rest of time, you're flying a bigger-than-optimal plane.

Now if you're running lots of A380's throughout multiple hub waves - as EK does - you start to realize economies scale on both ends of you hub and spoke system. The A380 becomes synergistic with the rest of your network. Especially - as with EK - if your spokes are A380 also.

Pursuing that kind of strategy would require a system-wide escalation of capacity and/or gauges, and is probably far too risky and/or yield-dilutive for all but a few (one?) airlines.

...which is why the A380 has to offer transformative efficiency, not just the ~5% edge that NEO would have over a 777-9.

Quoting speedbored (Reply 33):
They can't market an A380neo until and unless the board gives the go-ahead for a neo project.

This is needlessly formalist jiggery-pokery. Airbus is absolutely trying to convince airlines to buy A380neo's right now. You know that. And you know that nobody besides EK has so far said, "Sign me up." That's the whole reason they haven't asked for a formal launch - they're ready to go except for the "commercial" aspect. I.e. they have the plan, buyers are needed.

[Edited 2015-11-08 13:02:42]
 
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speedbored
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sun Nov 08, 2015 11:01 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 34):
Airbus is absolutely trying to convince airlines to buy A380neo's right now. You know that.

Please don't tell me what I do or do not know, especially when you are wrong.

What I do know is that, right now, Airbus are trying to sell A380ceos, not neos.

I am also aware that Airbus is talking to select customers about whether or not they would be likely to be interested in an A380neo, and what they would want it to look like, if Airbus do it. I have, most definitely, not heard of them "trying to convince" any airline to buy A380neos. Nor do I expect to, at least not until the sales team have actually got permission from the BoD to do so.
 
2175301
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Mon Nov 09, 2015 1:40 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 19):
They've just got to get the commercial aspects of it done

I am not sure if anyone has noted that "commercial aspects" includes the price the A380NEO would be sold for... The two companies could be $100 Million, or more, apart per aircraft and the statement would be true.

It is quite obvious that if Emirates is willing to pay enough per aircraft that Airbus would be quite willing to build it (with enough profit margin built in to offset the risk).


It is also obvious that if they were in fact close on the price and just finagling some details that Airbus would not have asked EK to help finance the A380NEO... which is why this thread exists.

Opps! I forgot. Emirates co-funding the development would also be a "commercial aspect."


Have a great day,
 
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par13del
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Mon Nov 09, 2015 1:51 am

Quoting speedbored (Reply 33):
ought to be a pretty big clue as to which manufacturer is most likely to be making a neo engine.

Well EA previous comments was that a business case was not there for a new engine, only after RR got the contract did they mention PIP's but no new engine.
If an A380NEO is built RR will provide the engine, I think that is about as done a deal as can be.
 
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Matt6461
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:13 am

Quoting speedbored (Reply 35):
I have, most definitely, not heard of them "trying to convince" any airline to buy A380neos. Nor do I expect to, at least not until the sales team have actually got permission from the BoD to do so.

You're playing a word game here to avoid acknowledging the truth of the matter. Airbus has repeatedly said they won't do a NEO for just one customer, and so far no non-EK airline has said they'd buy a NEO. Thus Airbus says it's "far from a solid business case." To pretend that Airbus isn't trying to (figuratively) sell airlines on the NEO is just absurd.

Yes, we all know that formal "Authority to Offer" has to be approved by the BoD. But we all also know - you included - that informal discussions gauging customer interest will have to produce affirmative interest from EK+ airlines for management to even seek Authority to Offer. Just as Boeing would not have sought and/or received ATO for the 777X if airlines had received it poorly, Airbus' unwillingness to formally begin offering the plane reflects lack of airline interest.

Those are the facts, changing the subject to ATO doesn't hide them.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:23 am

Quoting speedbored (Reply 35):

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 34):
Airbus is absolutely trying to convince airlines to buy A380neo's right now. You know that.

Please don't tell me what I do or do not know, especially when you are wrong.

What I do know is that, right now, Airbus are trying to sell A380ceos, not neos.

I am also aware that Airbus is talking to select customers about whether or not they would be likely to be interested in an A380neo, and what they would want it to look like, if Airbus do it. I have, most definitely, not heard of them "trying to convince" any airline to buy A380neos.

I honestly thought you were joking until I read this twice.

tortugamon
 
lutfi
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Mon Nov 09, 2015 5:06 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 26):
TC's quote, "They've just got to get the commercial aspects of it done" seems to say that EK's done its part, it's now up to Airbus.

I would say it is the other way round. Airbus part (the technical design) is done, it is now up to EK to decide if they want to pay Airbus enough to make it worthwhile for Airbus to make
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:53 am

Regarding the QR discussion in the previous thread:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...rs-can-t-promise-any-at-dubai-show

Quote:
Qatar Airways would be interested in a “very small number” of A380Neos for the replacement of its current superjumbos, Chief Executive Officer Akbar Al Baker said at the expo.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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EPA001
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Mon Nov 09, 2015 11:42 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 41):
Regarding the QR discussion in the previous thread:

Which is also a shift in their previous position that they most likely would not be interested in an A380-neo.  
 
fcogafa
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Mon Nov 09, 2015 11:48 am

So QTR are looking at replacements for an aircraft they have been operating a matter of months?

You couldnt make it up!

[Edited 2015-11-09 03:53:09]
 
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Revelation
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Mon Nov 09, 2015 12:33 pm

Quoting lutfi (Reply 40):
I would say it is the other way round. Airbus part (the technical design) is done, it is now up to EK to decide if they want to pay Airbus enough to make it worthwhile for Airbus to make

Yet TC used the word "they've" which to me suggests he's saying that from his point of view they, Airbus, have to close the commercial aspects of the program.
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parapente
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Mon Nov 09, 2015 1:00 pm

The QTR comments are only important in so much as they are making (or suggesting) a future commitment to the 380NEO.I imagine when it is launched (it is a when really) you will see the likes of BA and LH (and probably various others) make commitments to the NEO. Thus Airbus will say they are making this PIP'd 380 for a range of customers.

The real issue is manufacturing rates.Firstly they will need to slow present production rates down (unless some unexpected new orders) so that they 'buy time' to 2020.

Then this lower prod rate will need to extend into the future NEO's so that the BAs of this World are given the time they need,whether it be picking up outstanding options , new orders for expansion or (of course) finally replacement aircraft.

2 aircraft PCM would be the max I would suggest.At that rate the 2020 to 2030 period becomes perfectly possible.
If they can B/E or even repay some 'sunk costs', that will be the best they can hope for.I don't see the A380 ever being the profit machine that the 747 was.

But from a marginal costing POV for total Airbus manufacturing it will probably have a positive impact across the whole of the wide-bodied (and NB?) range.
 
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speedbored
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:39 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 38):
You're playing a word game here to avoid acknowledging the truth of the matter.

No I am not, I am simply stating the reality of the situation. You are the one playing word games by once again changing your argument. You are now claiming that Airbus is merely "trying to (figuratively) sell airlines on the NEO", which is not at all the same thing as your claim that I responded to, which was "trying to convince airlines to buy A380neo's right now".

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 38):
To pretend that Airbus isn't trying to (figuratively) sell airlines on the NEO is just absurd.

I'm not pretending that at all - I actually said almost exactly that before you changed your argument:

Quoting speedbored (Reply 35):
I am also aware that Airbus is talking to select customers about whether or not they would be likely to be interested in an A380neo, and what they would want it to look like, if Airbus do it

What is absurd is to make patently wrong claims and then pretend that you actually meant something very different.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 38):
Airbus' unwillingness to formally begin offering the plane reflects lack of airline interest.

As usual, you omitted the "in my opinion". Many of us with a little commercial nouse actually realise that there are very good commercial reasons why so very little of the noise about a possible neo is coming from Airbus at the moment.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 38):
Those are the facts

In your opinion. Many will disagree. But feel free to prove us wrong by posting the evidence you have to back up your claims that Airbus:

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 28):
have certainly shopped it to all the major legacy carriers
Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 34):
is absolutely trying to convince airlines to buy A380neo's right now.

I won't hold my breath.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:49 pm

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 43):
So QTR are looking at replacements for an aircraft they have been operating a matter of months?
You couldnt make it up!

Exactly, I think its an ego thing and wanting QR to be part of the big league conversations and all but lets be honest he won't be looking for a replacement for over 10 years. And we still have to see if he can operate his aircraft profitably which I think is really suspect at the moment. I think they will grow into the airplane but AAB is clearly more enthusiastic about his A350s than this A380s.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 44):
Yet TC used the word "they've" which to me suggests he's saying that from his point of view they, Airbus, have to close the commercial aspects of the program.

Agreed. It clearly is in Airbus court.

Quoting parapente (Reply 45):
2 aircraft PCM would be the max I would suggest.At that rate the 2020 to 2030 period becomes perfectly possible.
If they can B/E or even repay some 'sunk costs', that will be the best they can hope for.I don't see the A380 ever being the profit machine that the 747 was.

Its hard to believe that an aircraft that will be produced at just 2 per month takes up so many threads on a-net. To put that into perspective, the 767 has a higher planned production rate. Size matters!  
Quoting speedbored (Reply 46):

Arguing semantics and gotcha responses are pretty tiresome. Of course Airbus has asked everyone and their mom about their thoughts on an A380neo and of course they are trying to gain support on one central idea that works for everyone. SIA said that Airbus pitched them on the neo a couple months ago suggesting 10+%. Anyway, lets move on to substantial conversation.

tortugamon
 
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zckls04
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:38 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 47):
Agreed. It clearly is in Airbus court.

That's my reading of it too.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 26):
TC's quote, "They've just got to get the commercial aspects of it done" seems to say that EK's done its part, it's now up to Airbus.

Could mean that the design is well underway, and agreed in principle, and that the next stage is finding the $$$ to do it. My guess is that financing for a NEO will be far trickier than any other project, given the frame's previous failings, so it would make sense that this could be a stumbling block.

Or of course it could mean nothing  
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 47):
Arguing semantics and gotcha responses are pretty tiresome.

I agree, but specificity is important as well. The question is whether AAB's unwillingness to commit to a NEO indicates that a NEO in principle is doomed. I would definitely say that's true if it were STC making the comments, but I don't think AAB is a reliable gauge (particularly since he has U-turned on this issue yet again in the last week or so).
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81819
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:34 pm

Quoting fcogafa (Reply 43):
So QTR are looking at replacements for an aircraft they have been operating a matter of months?

You couldnt make it up!

Maybe QR are looking for Airbus to take some relatively new trade-ins.

Quoting parapente (Reply 45):
The QTR comments are only important in so much as they are making (or suggesting) a future commitment to the 380NEO.I imagine when it is launched (it is a when really) you will see the likes of BA and LH (and probably various others) make commitments to the NEO. Thus Airbus will say they are making this PIP'd 380 for a range of customers.

The QR comments are probably politically correct throw away lines. ABB was asked a question and he responded as positively as he can!

I can't see him committing to buy an aircraft for delivery in the 2028-30 time period!

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