dare100em
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:24 am

Quoting speedbored (Reply 96):
Quoting dare100em (Reply 95):
We are talking about 20 frames a year with 40 engines.

So you think the A380neo will be a "big twin"? NAV will be pleased

Of course it should be double the numbers, so about 80 for the A380neo and 200plus for the A350.
 
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enzo011
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 13, 2015 9:58 am

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 99):
It's odd that many here once thought a clean sheet NEO made any sense for RR.

Wasn't it seen as more of a evolution for RR and their own engines and development? If RR sits still and do not do any further work on new engines and developments for future products they will be overtaken in the market. If they continue their own internal development schedule there would be products that can be used by the OEMs, or upgrades that can be applied to existing engines to improve efficiency and garner more sales.
 
parapente
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 13, 2015 1:25 pm

Is the idea of this Airbus folding wing device that natural in flight lifting pressure keeps it extended? Certainly the height of an A380 wing could incorporate it. Just wondering.

http://goo.gl/26KUcX
 
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Revelation
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 13, 2015 1:30 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 29):
Looks like the rumored SV order for A380ceo is unlikely to happen at Dubai:

That is now a fact. A380 is on a very long losing streak.

Quoting dare100em (Reply 95):
It isn't as easy as that. In fact the MARITIME engine division is "under water" and not the AERO engine division.

WITHIN the civil aero engine devision it is the "weaker" business jet demand that lowers PROFITS [in that devision].

So where are they likely to invest? Obviously in the TURBOFAN department of the civil aero devision.

In the context of a new engine for the A380neo, it isn't as easy as that, IMHO.

The linked reports say the TURBOFAN department is still profitable but not as profitable as projected because (a) sales of engines whose R&D has long been paid for such as T700 have more competitive pressure and thus lower margins than planned and (b) airlines are retiring older a/c such as 747-400 and 767 quicker than planned so support and spares business is dropping.

Given all of the above, it doesn't seem to me the remedy is to start a new project that is going to require some (for a T7000 makeover) or a lot (for an Advance) of investment on a program that you aren't sure will sell all that briskly and be in the black for years to come. Maybe you do that in a few years after the TXWB and T7000 being produced at full rate and are shoring up the bottom line, and after the current unfortunate cutbacks are in effect and things are all going in the right direction.

That's consistent with Leahy giving a 2022-2023 timeline for a NEO and Bregier saying that current customers shouldn't wait for a NEO.
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dare100em
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 13, 2015 2:59 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 103):
That's consistent with Leahy giving a 2022-2023 timeline for a NEO and Bregier saying that current customers shouldn't wait for a NEO.

While what you say is true and they probably stretch the investment plans into new enginees significant it's just not an option to "stop investing" in such an high-tech business. I agrea they may finish the T7000 and T1000-10 for the 787 first before they touch tne next one, but they just can't stop investing in new technology.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 13, 2015 4:40 pm

Quoting dare100em (Reply 104):
While what you say is true and they probably stretch the investment plans into new enginees significant it's just not an option to "stop investing" in such an high-tech business.

I think we under estimate how much it costs to fund R&D and completely underestimate how much it costs to take that design to a full-scale industrialized product manufacturing set up. Certainly they won't give up the former but they are going to be very hesitant on the latter unless they have a firm business case.

In other words, they will keep moving their technology forward but that doesn't mean they will automatically have fully functioning manufacturing line dedicated to it. Its the latter that is especially expensive, not the design.

tortugamon
 
dare100em
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:24 pm

Yes, I completely agree with what you say. Expect maybe the underestimating part of the design-phase  
 
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seahawk
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:26 pm

Proving a technology is much cheaper, even if you go with full scale test engines, than turning that demonstrator into a series produced and fully certified engine.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 13, 2015 5:32 pm

Quoting dare100em (Reply 106):
Expect maybe the underestimating part of the design-phase

Yeah, sloppy writing. I feel for those where english isn't a first language.  

Trying to say that they can further design and research without full scale industrialization which is the expensive part.

tortugamon
 
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Matt6461
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Tue Nov 17, 2015 1:25 am

This opinion piece seems to get things right: Another big airshow with very little expressed customer interest in the A380neo.

http://airwaysnews.com/blog/2015/11/.../the-a380neo-no-one-seems-to-want/

Interesting the GE/EA is still floating its incremental upgrades as a possible NEO alternative. If anything happens, that seems the most likely course. Give EK enough fuel burn improvement to keep a slight overall DOC/CASM edge for the A380, so that the A380 remains its fleet centerpiece.
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Tue Nov 17, 2015 4:40 am

The nail in the coffin for me is that EK has stated that 25 frames already on order can be converted to the NEO. Airbus can't even get to the NEO from here with existing orders, so the loss of 25 means some pretty ugly reports from 2018-2023.

How many billions will be spent chasing maybe not losing money on production of frames sometime in the future? At this point it seems like Airbus would be better served by doing pretty much anything else other than play with the A380. A350NEO would even make more sense and its not even at full rate production yet.
 
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seahawk
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Tue Nov 17, 2015 5:53 am

There is one option that makes a lot of sense and that is to close the production line and increase A350 capacity instead.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Tue Nov 17, 2015 6:47 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 110):
The nail in the coffin for me is that EK has stated that 25 frames already on order can be converted to the NEO. Airbus can't even get to the NEO from here with existing orders, so the loss of 25 means some pretty ugly reports from 2018-2023.

EK had the same ability on their last 77W order and haven't exercised it. I think they will need A380s in 2018-2025 regardless and if a new engine doesn't come in that time period they will just order the ceo. I don't see the 25 ever being executed as a neo.

tortugamon
 
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Revelation
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:04 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 109):
Interesting the GE/EA is still floating its incremental upgrades as a possible NEO alternative. If anything happens, that seems the most likely course.

Yet given the fact that EK has already committed to RR for all 50 of the engines in its Nov 2013 order (i.e. out to ship 140) and of course EK being the main proponent of a NEO, the 'most likely course' is not at all likely.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 110):
The nail in the coffin for me is that EK has stated that 25 frames already on order can be converted to the NEO. Airbus can't even get to the NEO from here with existing orders, so the loss of 25 means some pretty ugly reports from 2018-2023.

I read 'can be converted' as 'may be CEO or NEO' and you seem to be reading it as 'must be NEO'.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 110):
How many billions will be spent chasing maybe not losing money on production of frames sometime in the future? At this point it seems like Airbus would be better served by doing pretty much anything else other than play with the A380.

At this point they're best off doing what they are doing, building out the frames they have orders for, and working whatever sales opportunities present themselves, and working out how to reduce the production rate to match the current and anticipated orders. I think they'll do as much as possible to keep the product alive, although it is not looking too good for the future at this point in time. It is most unfortunate that the spurt in new aircraft placements means the engine vendors are spending a lot on manufacturing and not taking in as much on parts and services which makes it difficult to invest in the near term on a new engine for program with less than stellar forecasts.
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ec99
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Tue Nov 17, 2015 4:59 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 111):
There is one option that makes a lot of sense and that is to close the production line and increase A350 capacity instead.

As a passenger without an equity interest in Airbus, I would certainly prefer they launch the A380NEO. The plane simply provides unsurpassed comfort in First and Business class and I would like it to continue to in service for the next 30 years.

That said, if I had an equity interest in Airbus, I would support Seahawk’s view. The A380neo is an unknown and at present, it does not project as likely to be a big money maker. Whereas the A350 looks like a very good airplane with strong ongoing sales potential and much opportunity for further improvement. However, the A350’s biggest weakness might be the slow production rate so far and the big backlog which results in airlines having to wait many years to receive the airplane. If closing the A380 line once you complete all outstanding orders allows Airbus to significantly increase A350 production (and therefore probably increase sales), it seems like the right decision. Airbus could then put the R&D resources into improving the A350 or some other promising avenue. I would bet if Boeing had a do over they wish they had not moved forward with the 747-8 but instead used those resources for the NSA/MOM.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:03 am

Mr Bregier said that introducing the neo in 2022 may be too early.

Quote:

Airbus believes introducing a sales-boosting upgrade to its A380 aircraft in 2022 may be too early, Chief Executive Fabrice Bregier said at an industry gathering in New York on Thursday.

The planemaking unit of Airbus Group SE (AIR.PA) is looking at whether to upgrade the A380, the world's largest passenger jet, as requested by its largest customer Emirates [EMIRA.UL].

While buy-in from Emirates is crucial, Airbus still must justify to other airlines that the jumbojet has a market, Bregier said before the aviation group known as the Wings Club.

"People love the A380 as passengers. But airlines don't," he said
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0T82ZX20151119#Ir0xLh3xQHlERM8D.97

What confuses me is that Stephen Trimble at FG was at a lunch today and had this quote:

Quote:

Fabrice Bregier, @airbus CEO, says 2020 "too early" for EIS of possible A380neo. #wingsclub'
http://twitter.com/FG_STrim/status/667410092501901312

Either way it looks like we are in for a wait. If EIS is after 2022 then its hard for me to see an A380neo launch next year. A line closure feels likely to me.

tortugamon
 
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mercure1
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:17 am

Best quote by far to summarize the A380.

Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier:

People love the A380 as passengers. But airlines don't.
mercure f-wtcc
 
thegeek
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:25 am

A quick word about QF's A380 orders. I expect two of them to eventually be delivered. They need a higher MTOW A380 to do SYD-DFW year round without restrictions and the displaced planes from that flight can be sent elsewhere, e.g. SYD-HKG, second SYD-LAX flight. Perhaps even SYD-NRT 3pw if demand is strong enough. These were only deferred as a capital management initiative, causing some controversy in the Aus Aviation threads at the time.

They're also working their A380 fleet pretty hard and don't have much slack so might want to create some.

The other six were intended for the 3rd and 4th LHR flight, which they aren't flying any more so probably won't happen unless their business picks up fairly significantly.

Not sure of the situation at any of other airlines with sketchy orders though.

Quoting dare100em (Reply 82):
I don't know if a stretch plus smaller tail plus new engines plus large wing modifications (including folding wingtips for at least a 90 m span) will do the job, but IMO it's the only option.

I don't get why the wing needs to be bigger or redesigned at all unless to incorporate aero improvements? With the more efficient engines, less fuel needs to be carried. If you're also shrinking the tail, MD11 style (hopefully you don't go that far), you're also saving on the lift requirement and some weight.

My theory is that they want to hold out until they can put the RR Advance on the wing. That's what I'd want to do.

I still don't understand why they're (seemingly) limiting to the stretch to 79.4m. Particularly if they're redesigning the tail anyway, why not go for broke? The additional seats might not have good RASK, but on some routes the CASK improvement would compensate.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:59 am

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 116):
Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier:

People love the A380 as passengers. But airlines don't.

Personally I wonder how good a corporate leader he is.

Less than six months ago his pronouncements kicked off the following thread:

A380neo Announced By Airbus (by ozglobal Jul 19 2015 in Civil Aviation)

Now we're reading him saying how airlines don't like his company's 'halo' product and it won't receive an engine upgrade for at least another seven years...
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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tortugamon
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:54 am

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 116):
People love the A380 as passengers. But airlines don't.

I found that puzzling but fascinating as well.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 118):
Personally I wonder how good a corporate leader he is.
Less than six months ago his pronouncements kicked off the following thread:

I don't wonder. Where do you see the inconsistent message in that? It seems like he has always been in the 'eventually there will be an A380'-land. Even the articles you have posted said between 2020 and 2025 it will be available 'for sale'. I don't think he has done enough to water down urgency but he is up against STC who is pushing the opposite agenda and he has to keep him happy.

Personally I think he is in a hard place because he really can't win. And when you can't win you defer. And I think that is what he is doing.

tortugamon
 
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Revelation
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 20, 2015 5:23 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 119):
Where do you see the inconsistent message in that?

His statement in July:

Quote:

“We will move to the A380neo type. You can say that. Absolutely. We will need it between 2020 and 2025,”

His statement now:

Quote:

“The 2022 date you mentioned for me is too early”

So he shed at least three years off the low bound of his estimate in just four months, and contradicted his "chief executive officer -- customers" at the same time. You might not wonder how good a corporate leader he is, but I do. Add to that his statement that airlines don't love his product when at least one clearly does, and I have to wonder about the guy's abilities.

Ref: http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...oo-early-for-a380neo-debut-419320/

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 119):
Personally I think he is in a hard place because he really can't win. And when you can't win you defer. And I think that is what he is doing.

Yes, I think he's in a hard spot. I just wonder if he couldn't be handling it better.

[Edited 2015-11-20 09:41:07]
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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tortugamon
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 20, 2015 6:42 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 120):
So he shed at least three years off the low bound of his estimate in just four months

I always saw that '2020-2025' comment as a range for its EIS maybe others saw it a different way. Now, I just see that he has narrowed the range to become more specific, or the latter half of the range now. I don't see that as inconsistent.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 120):
contradicted his "chief executive officer -- customers" at the same time.

Well JL's title is COO not CEO and I think he is the one that should not be contradicting the boss. Now, if you are saying that FB is a bad boss for not getting his team on board with a consistent message, then I accept that as a valid criticism.

Either way, this program is pretty screwed.

tortugamon
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:10 pm

JL is Airbus' chief salesman so it is his job to be bullish on the A380 no matter what.

It's why Randy Tinseth at Boeing keeps talking up the 747-8 even as the CEO announces continuous rate cuts due to lack of demand.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Airbus Presses EK To Finance A380neo Part 3

Sat Nov 21, 2015 1:41 am

Flightglobal has an article talking about the different language coming from FB and JL. Also, I thought this was interesting:

Quote:
"Bregier also doesn’t commit to re-engining or stretching the A380. He calls the project an “upgrade of the A380”, which could include a new engine or “even a stretch version”.
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...oo-early-for-a380neo-debut-419320/

Has FB really never committed to re-engining the A380?

tortugamon

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