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Brewfangrb
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:59 am

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 13):
I remember after PA103 went down in Scotland in 1988 we knew within a day or two. Now it's been a week since Metrojet and all we have are some idiots on a website and a "loud noise" on the CVR.

Right, because when someone mentions something that occurred 27 years ago, I think of how little things have changed in the world since then.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 4:02 am

RHS HS found in video footage, missing central section.

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CTV2eiqVAAA9l2C.png:large
 
solarflyer22
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 4:30 am

Quoting a318 (Reply 45):
is there a possibility that this could have been loaded into the catering at the rear of the aircraft?

I dont see why not. Problem is, it'd have to go off before they serve food otherwise someone would notice and raise the alarm.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 48):
quite possible if near empty and breached it could became another exploding pressure vessel maybe accounting for the tail apparantly being popped

I think there was an explosion and although I think its ISIS I could definitely see fuel vapor igniting after they took of from Sharm. What makes me suspicious as I mentioned in my now deleted post, this flight was 95% Russian in an area where security might be compromised. Its coming just 2 months after Russia's Syria intervention? I dont buy the coincidence. If some Arab group wanted to target Russians (hypothetically speaking) Sharm is a logical choice. Cairo has more and better security. Other airports in the region are too dispersed and to well protected.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 4:44 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 52):
I think there was an explosion and although I think its ISIS I could definitely see fuel vapor igniting after they took of from Sharm. What makes me suspicious as I mentioned in my now deleted post, this flight was 95% Russian in an area where security might be compromised. Its coming just 2 months after Russia's Syria intervention? I dont buy the coincidence.

Yup thats the problem it could easily be one of the opposition groups in Syria pissed that Russia is (allegedly) bombing them, Putin is unlikely to accept a verdict from the west that it was IS.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 5:04 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 54):
Yet hasn't he indicated that a bomb is quite possibly the culprit?

-Dave

Yes but he has a choice of perpetrators, he will choose the most politically convenient, in this case probably the Syrian opposition (which cannot be rulled out), the west will then find it hard to complain about him bombing the crap out of them.

[Edited 2015-11-08 21:27:24]
 
YoungMans
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 5:17 am

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 25):
Where on earth

You are not insinuating something here, are you ..?
Just kidding, 'pulling your leg' a bit.
It's good, though, to see you, Pihero and others trying to get to the bottom of this one.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 41):
ISIS doesn't lack money

And they don't; especially not when they are able to sell all that oil and get financed by various other sources to buy all them new Toyota's and whatever else. If ISIS is behind this crash, they were probably not acting in their own right but carrying out the "dirty work" for the hidden hand.

Edit: Adding the last comments.

[Edited 2015-11-08 21:26:27]

[Edited 2015-11-08 21:27:05]
 
aryonoco
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 5:48 am

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 49):
PanAm 103's bomb was in a piece of luggage, and by volume was about the size of 3 golf balls
Quoting 2175301 (Reply 49):
about a half of a golf ball amount of modern plastic explosive

I understand grams. I understand cubic centimeters. I can even understand (or convert) their Imperial equivalents.

But golf balls? Is that a new unit of measurement? Of size or volume?
 
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zeke
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 5:54 am

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 57):
But golf balls? Is that a new unit of measurement? Of size or volume?

And to add confusion, American balls are bigger than British balls, try converting that.    
 
lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 6:02 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 58):
And to add confusion, American balls are bigger than British balls, try converting that.    

But British balls no longer exist.
There is a minimum diameter and a maximum weight, so "golfballs" are a somewhat ambiguous unit of measurement. 
 
hoya
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 6:16 am

Surprised that I haven't seen this linked yet in any of the posts. Tests have been conducted on a 747-100 and L1010, simulating a bomb blast at 30,000 feet using only 200 grams of explosives. Chilling videos, yet after seeing these it's fairly easy to determine why the rear fuselage is missing and why the parts found so far (horizontal stabilizers) are so damaged.

youtube video of 747 test - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dx3baqIfvBY

video of the 747 test and L1011 test (sorry that it's in German, only video I could find) - http://www.military.com:80/video/air...g-747-explosion-test/658235484001/
 
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:42 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 37):
The aux fuel tanks in the back (if they were installed) are def worth investigating imo.
Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 48):
Metrojet's maintenence program shows that MSN 663, EI-ETJ had ACT fitted, quite possible if near empty and breached it could became another exploding pressure vessel maybe accounting for the tail apparantly being popped off.

I am in the camp that advocates waiting for evidence... with regards to any theory, bomb or otherwise.

But if they had ACTs, then that is quite interesting. A TWA800 style accident? Empty container, with fuel vapours. Possible...
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:26 am

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 62):
But if they had ACTs, then that is quite interesting. A TWA800 style accident? Empty container, with fuel vapours. Possible...

There is also that AD floating around regarding electrical bonding in A320 fuel tanks

Quote:
Insufficient electrical bonding may in certain flight conditions (aircraft lightning, static charge accumulation)lead to electrical arcing inside the tanks, which, in case of the ignition of fuel vapors, could cause the fuel tank explosion.

This AD specifically mentions MSN 663, it also mentions 668 and 852 which we can see from the document I posted also have the ACT installed; and an AIRBUS modifications 27150 and 27955, which I now begin to think may be the ACT installation?

So the AD related directly to an auxiliary fuel tank explosion not a center tank explosion.

The plot thickens..

[Edited 2015-11-09 01:34:14]
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:46 am

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 37):
Quoting eielef (Reply 30):
I have no ideas of explosives, but how big must be a bomb for bringing down a plane? Off course it depends on

Not big. I'd probably design blow out panels to release the pressure. Might save the plane if something detonates.

Nochance. The pressure wave arrives at Mach 3 - Mach 8, too fast to overcome the inertia of a blowout panel. Also don't forget that the rivets holding the skin are loaded in tension mode concerning the cabin pressure and they are designed for 14000 ft plus a sefety factor, not for megabars. They are also loaded in shear (and much stronger this way, as it is the prefered way of loading rivets) to take up the fuselage maneuvering loads.

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 42):
A normal container will not help. You would need a specially reinforced container that can contain or at least signifikantly dampen an explosion - if the bomb was inside and not in the galley, the lavatory or some other space.

These reinforced containers trap the pressure wave through Kevlar sheets and then let the gases expand a lot slower through orifices, at a speed the overpressure safety valves in the fuselage can handle.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 49):
So, a fairly small bomb inside luggage most certainly can bring a modern airliner down. My personal estimate (I used to work with C4 frequently) is that about a half of a golf ball amount of modern plastic explosive (RDX or PETN based) is enough to do crash an aircraft unless is is perfectly placed in the airplane such that it is in the middle of a very large volume (like the center of the cabin). Even that might do the trick if there is any noticeable fatigue.

As for comparable explosives, in my days with the German civil defence I worked with Czech Semtex 1A and Russian Resaflex (available after the end of cold war), Seismogelit, TNT blocks and Sprengmasse Formbar DM12 (the German military equivalent of C4) and it's civilian counterpart (same stuff, just different packaging) for cutting metal and Ammon-Gelit 2 (and it's East German equivalent Gelamon 2, which became available after the Berlin Wall fell. Both are gelantinous ammonium nitrate dynamites) for blasting rocks and general demolitions. For tree stumps we used Donarit 2, a rather slow powdery ammonium nitrate based explosive with a little nitroglycerine mixed in.
I also used prefabricated linear shaped charges made by British Royal Ordnance under the trade name "Blade" for cutting steel.

Jan
 
lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:55 am

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 62):
A TWA800 style accident? Empty container, with fuel vapours. Possible...

Early in the morning, no congestion at the airport with air condition running hot - different circumstances altogether.
We don't even know about fuel vapours here. The tank might have been full, for all we know.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:11 am

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 64):
The pressure wave arrives at Mach 3 - Mach 8, too fast to overcome the inertia of a blowout panel.

afaik, blowout panels are used in buildings where explosives are handled, e.g. ammunition factories, to limit damage in case of an explosion.
But buildings are not pressurized and do not have to fly.
 
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zeke
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:16 am

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 62):

Airbus ACTs are different to the way Boeing does things. With the TWA flight, the 747 centre tank ran dry, inside the tank they have "wet" electric pumps inside the tank which are normally submerged in fuel. ACTs on Airbus used cabin air pressure (not an electric motor exposed to fumes that can spark) to push fuel from the ACT into the centre tank, you can think of the ACT like an accumulator.

We also do not know if ACTs were installed, once the SB is made to the aircraft, the operator can load/unload the container that is the ACT in short time, they just put blanks over the connectors. The aircraft still remains subject to all ADs as it has had the SB applied which activates the feature on the aircraft.
 
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zeke
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:21 am

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 64):
These reinforced containers trap the pressure wave through Kevlar sheets and then let the gases expand a lot slower through orifices, at a speed the overpressure safety valves in the fuselage can handle.

Don't need to be Kevlar, there are containers made from GLARE. El Al use them.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:36 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 67):
Airbus ACTs are different to the way Boeing does things. With the TWA flight, the 747 centre tank ran dry, inside the tank they have "wet" electric pumps inside the tank which are normally submerged in fuel. ACTs on Airbus used cabin air pressure (not an electric motor exposed to fumes that can spark) to push fuel from the ACT into the centre tank, you can think of the ACT like an accumulator.

OK, but the AD states issues that could result in a tank explosion, so whats all that about?

Quoting zeke (Reply 67):

We also do not know if ACTs were installed, once the SB is made to the aircraft, the operator can load/unload the container that is the ACT in short time, they just put blanks over the connectors. The aircraft still remains subject to all ADs as it has had the SB applied which activates the feature on the aircraft.

This of course is true..
 
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zeke
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:52 am

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 69):

OK, but the AD states issues that could result in a tank explosion, so whats all that about?


Any bonding wire that is not effective on any fuel tank or aircraft can result in an explosion. It is common sense. If you don't ground an aircraft when refuelling it can result in an explosion. Using a HF radio while refuelling can result in an explosion.

Bonding is a serious design consideration, look at the networks they had to build into the 787/A350.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 11:03 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 70):
Any bonding wire that is not effective on any fuel tank or aircraft can result in an explosion. It is common sense. If you don't ground an aircraft when refuelling it can result in an explosion. Using a HF radio while refuelling can result in an explosion.

Well, yes its common sense yet it required an AD to rectify a design or manufacturing issue.. I presume a ACT ignition could in theory bring an aircraft down?
 
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zeke
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 11:50 am

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 71):
Well, yes its common sense yet it required an AD to rectify a design or manufacturing issue.. I presume a ACT ignition could in theory bring an aircraft down?

No the AD does not say it is a manufacturing or design issue. Most ADs come about from service difficulty reports where items are picked up during schedule maintenance.

An AD requiring bonding wire (ie a ground) being checked does not mean a source of of ignition is present. This is very different to the problem with the 737/747 fuel tanks where a source of ignition, being an electric motor inside the tank is exposed directly to fumes inside a fuel tank. With the ACT being supplied with cabin air under pressure fumes are not being built up in an enclosed space like the 737/747. The ACT is also inside the cargo hold without sources of heat nearby, it is also well below flash point temperature, normally at least 5 degrees below cabin temperature.

The probability of and ACT exploding in flight I think is about as probable as the gas in the toilet waste tank exploding..... Zero.
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 11:58 am

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 66):
Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 64):
The pressure wave arrives at Mach 3 - Mach 8, too fast to overcome the inertia of a blowout panel.

afaik, blowout panels are used in buildings where explosives are handled, e.g. ammunition factories, to limit damage in case of an explosion.
But buildings are not pressurized and do not have to fly.

These blow out walls and roofs hold no structural loads and are mostly in place to channel the pressure wave into a safe direction and not to cause any shrapnell, which might injure people a long way away.

Jan
 
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seahawk
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 12:19 pm

And the other walls are usually re-enforced.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 12:43 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 75):

And the other walls are usually re-enforced.

sure, you don't want the building to collapse.
But with an airplane, the aims would have to be much more ambitious, it would still have to fly after an explosion. I doubt if it is possible technically, but economics would certainly kill the concept.
 
spacecadet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 6:55 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 61):
But not a week later.

I'm not sure if you're saying it was longer or shorter, but it was actually *quite a bit* longer: http://www.cnn.com/US/9711/18/twa.fbi.presser/

The FBI didn't close its criminal investigation and announce the lack of criminal evidence until November of 1997, more than a year after the crash.

That's one reason I've sort of stopped following all the prognostication about this crash until some actual evidence turns up one way or another. "Chatter" is not evidence; it's hearsay. Once the spectral analysis on the CVR is done, that'll be something, but it won't necessarily be conclusive. For example, the TWA 800 CVR spectral analysis was inconclusive on its own, and only when compared with other incidents was it found "most similar" to other airplanes that had experienced either explosive decompression or CWT explosions. In other words, it supported the physical findings, but it wouldn't necessarily have ruled out another conclusion.

What we really need to see is an analysis of the physical evidence. And that is going to come much later. Some of the amateur analyses being done here and on pprune are interesting, but there's no way to know how close any of them are to reality (though I have my favorites). We need something official.
 
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TVNWZ
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:12 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 78):
We need something official

And then, that may not even be reality...
 
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litz
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:16 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 2):
2. Physical connections to the FDR stopped before the aircraft's Mode-S/ADS-B transceiver lost data feed and power

It will be interesting to see the final report how these timelines line up.

If the tail separated early, it's very possible for other systems to have kept operating for a bit, esp. considering the visible evidence of how much stayed intact until impact.

I would guess there's enough evidence to leverage a supposition that main electronics systems might have remained functional until it inverted, or the engines quit, or some combination thereof.

Secondary question : did this plane have a QAR? Those are typically in the forward EE bay, and might well show some additional info if it's intact and readable.
 
spacecadet
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:52 pm

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 79):
And then, that may not even be reality...

I can sense the TWA 800-style conspiracy theories already in the gestation stages.
 
abba
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:58 pm

Seems as if Russia becomes more open for the possibility that it could be a bomb.

Unfortunately only in Danish.

http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/udland/rusl...abner-op-terror-teori-bag-flystyrt
 
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litz
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:15 pm

as I said earlier ... there must be evidence here that has not been made public.

Countries like Egypt and Russia do not change their stances on a public statement to a complete 180-degree about-face without something seriously convincingly blatant, to force them to do so.

and yet ... that was the fastest change of stance we've seen from either country in decades.
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:49 pm

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 81):
I can sense the TWA 800-style conspiracy theories already in the gestation stages.

Agree !

Quoting litz (Reply 83):
as I said earlier ... there must be evidence here that has not been made public.

Countries like Egypt and Russia do not change their stances on a public statement to a complete 180-degree about-face without something seriously convincingly blatant, to force them to do so.

This and a lot of weird data fuel the CT crowd, in the end this is a tragedy that took 200 people lives. If there is a malfunction on the aircraft, it should be made public, and try to avoid something like this in the future. If it was a bomb, the real perpetrators should be exposed and if posible brought to justice.

TRB
 
alfa164
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Tue Nov 10, 2015 3:37 am

Quoting TheRedBaron (Reply 83):
If it was a bomb, the real perpetrators should be exposed and if posible brought to justice.

I wonder if the Egyptians are already looking for anyone who worked at SSH immediately before the crash, but disappeared immediately afterward.

Quoting Airbus747 (Reply 84):
OR... Theory #3 - It's an Airbus A320 family-wide defect and Airbus secretly blackmails everyone to cover up or they will do something unfavorable in their deal. Ultimately they don't want their end customers (passengers) to feel unsafe as it is one of the most common planes around Europe, the invincible A320 family.
Imagine how the world would react if it was revealed that the plane almost every European airline flies has a severe inherent problem in its rear.

I think anyone who seriously proposes that scenario has a problem with his rear....   
 
Dreamflight767
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Tue Nov 10, 2015 6:34 am

The past 4 days U.S. news outlets have all but stopped covering this tragedy; it's difficult to find any information. Instead, headlines read about Starbucks failing to put images of reindeer on their cups and potential president Mr. Trump's suggests to boycott.

Shameful and a disgrace. I believe the secrecy of this event is political and economical motivated.
 
lancelot07
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Tue Nov 10, 2015 6:41 am

Quoting Dreamflight767 (Reply 83):
I believe the secrecy of this event is political and economical motivated.

1. There is simply no new news.
2. It has turned into a criminal investigation, and prosecutors usually are very silent anywhere in the world for tactical reasons.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Tue Nov 10, 2015 6:48 am

Quoting Dreamflight767 (Reply 83):
Shameful and a disgrace. I believe the secrecy of this event is political and economical motivated.

I've heard it discussed on the radio even today. It's on the main news sites from what I can see online. I don't watch the tv news programs so don't know about there.

1. It happened in Egypt to a Russian airliner - hard to keep the attention of the American media for obvious reasons.
2. Everyone is waiting to hear about confirmation on the suggestion of a bomb - not much left to say.

-Dave
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Tue Nov 10, 2015 7:25 am

Quoting ALFA164 (Reply 82):
I think anyone who seriously proposes that scenario has a problem with his rear....

Yes, they are using their rear as earmuffs..
 
AR385
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Tue Nov 10, 2015 7:26 am

Quoting Dreamflight767 (Reply 83):
The past 4 days U.S. news outlets have all but stopped covering this tragedy;

What are you watching? It´s been discussed in every news outlet at every cycle: CNN, FOX, CBS, NBC, ABC. Really, what you are saying is not true at all. For the past 4 days and today.
 
RolandRat
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Tue Nov 10, 2015 7:39 am

Morning,

I have been looking at various news channels, and as previous commentators have said, it does seem to have gone a little bit quiet....
 
Unflug
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Tue Nov 10, 2015 7:48 am

Quoting ALFA164 (Reply 82):
I think anyone who seriously proposes that scenario has a problem with his rear....

I'm so glad my cup of coffee was already back on the table...

Quoting Dreamflight767 (Reply 83):
Shameful and a disgrace. I believe the secrecy of this event is political and economical motivated.

What kind of "news" do you expect during an accident investigation at a point in time where no conclusions have been reached?
 
wjcandee
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Tue Nov 10, 2015 8:08 am

Quoting Dreamflight767 (Reply 83):
The past 4 days U.S. news outlets have all but stopped covering this tragedy;

Well, it's in a foreign country involving foreigners, so who cares?

No storyline the media can push would lead to a change in US government policy, so nothing to write. (You realize, of course, that 75 percent of hard news stories are written to encourage change in government or social policy, right? It's the essence of what journalists think to be their calling.)

Seriously, though, they are still passing along what they hear. That's why we have had headlines like, "US Official Says 90 Percent Possible It's A Bomb", followed by stories on subsequent days citing different officials and percentages. The media figures that it has answered the question -- it's a bomb -- and they then lose interest. When something Big Picture comes up to change that, we'll hear about it. All the little details they were reporting don't matter to them anymore (even if it matters to US), because they figure they've figured it out.
 
bcworld
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Tue Nov 10, 2015 8:56 pm

Quoting Dreamflight767 (Reply 82):
The past 4 days U.S. news outlets have all but stopped covering this tragedy; it's difficult to find any information. Instead, headlines read about Starbucks failing to put images of reindeer on their cups and potential president Mr. Trump's suggests to boycott.

Shameful and a disgrace. I believe the secrecy of this event is political and economical motivated.

Well in fact it barely rates a mention even on the homepage of rt.com as of yesterday / right now. Presumably that's politically motivated too?
 
eielef
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Tue Nov 10, 2015 10:03 pm

This is the power of Mass Media! One day, all we speak is Kolavia. The next day we forget of it. Does anyone remember the Yemenia accident in 2009? It was in the media less than a week, although this A310 claimed the life of 152 people. Similar was, less than a year later, the Afriqiyah 771 crash, on a brand new A330, returning from Johannesburg to Tripoli. 103 casualties. It was in the news for few weeks. Then the arab spring started, and Libya was often in the news by some other reasons.
Some times, a story is not so good enough, so we tend to forget it.
See photos of Pulkovo Airport now (LED). Are there still flowers? Teddy bears? It's only been 11 days, and people is starting to forget of this tragedy that shocked the Saint Petersburg's community so hard.
Besides the two Malaysian 777 of last year (one surrounded by Mystery, and the other by lack of a responsable person/state), I think most of us have forgotten all the other accidents of the last 24 months.
Recently a report was published on the investigation findings of Tatarstan Airlines flight 363, which crashed close to KZN in Nov 2013. It was the biggest crash of that year. Most Russians had already forgotten of the crash, and even of the airline, that was closed few weeks after that crash.
 
o0OOO0oChris
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Tue Nov 10, 2015 10:37 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 65):
We also do not know if ACTs were installed, once the SB is made to the aircraft, the operator can load/unload the container that is the ACT in short time, they just put blanks over the connectors. The aircraft still remains subject to all ADs as it has had the SB applied which activates the feature on the aircraft.

A pprune user pointed out that documents provided by metrojet showed total fuel on departure 21tons, while Wing+CWT tank can take a total amount of around 19 tons. Sounds pretty plausible that at least one ACT was installed.
http://nsa37.casimages.com/img/2015/11/10/15111005404614808.jpg

German press cites Stephan Schaffrath, vice president (PR) of airbus. He made the following statement in Dubai:
„Wir wissen jetzt, dass die Maschine technisch intakt war und die Katastrophe nicht vom Flugzeug selbst verursacht wurde. Aber es muss selbstverständlich abgewartet werden, bis die Endergebnisse der Untersuchung bekannt sind“, so Schaffrath.

Der Sprecher fügte hinzu, dass dem Unternehmen Airbus noch keine Informationen darüber bekannt seien, wo die abgestürzte Maschine zusammengesetzt werden solle. Eine diesbezügliche Entscheidung könnten die ägyptischen oder die russischen Behörden treffen, so Schaffrath.

Rough translation:
"We now know that the plane was technically intact and the disaster was not caused by the aircraft itself. But it remains to be seen, of course, until the final results of the investigation is known "said Schaffrath.

Schaffrath added that Airbus had no information on where the reassembly of plane debris would take place, a decision to be made by Egyptian and Russian authorities.

Sorry, couldn't find a story in english, german only:
http://de.sputniknews.com/panorama/2...erkehrsflugzeug-intakt-airbus.html

English version:
http://sputniknews.com/world/2015111...69182/a321-airbus-crash-egypt.html


[Edited 2015-11-10 14:40:12]




[Edited 2015-11-10 15:22:45] Better translation, engllish version, correkted messed up links

[Edited 2015-11-10 15:25:53]
 
solarflyer22
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Tue Nov 10, 2015 11:43 pm

Quoting o0OOO0oChris (Reply 92):
"We now know that the plane was technically intact and the disaster was not caused by the aircraft itself. But it remains to be seen, of course, until the final results of the investigation is known "said Schaffrath.

Yeah, my guess is they found something on the FDR or CVR that indicates a sudden event specifically in the back.

Does the FDR record cabin air pressure?

CNN reported on live TV that US believes it was a "military grade" explosive. I kind of doubt that some ISIS affiliates in the remote Sinai could have pulled this off on their own. They get help from someone to do this I think. Should be interesting to see who it is.

As far as media goes, I saw more on the Russian doping scandal today than the flight.
 
Planeflyer
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Tue Nov 10, 2015 11:50 pm

In general, I'm very suspicious of the media not in a CT way but simply because most media is biased and won't admit it influences coverage.

OK, with that said this is a tough story to cover. The most they can report is that "we are not sure" which is really not news so they move on until thy have something.

But and I hope this is not the case, if turns out to be terrorism there will be 24/7 coverage. Just imagine the changes in store for commercial aviation.

Can't you see 60 minutes asking for interviews about security procedures employed at the ME3?
 
abba
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Wed Nov 11, 2015 9:35 pm

Quoting Planeflyer (Reply 94):
Can't you see 60 minutes asking for interviews about security procedures employed at the ME3?

Indeed so. If it proves to be security at Sham that is a problem - that ISIS somehow managed to have some of their sympathizer working there - then that extends not only to the ME3 but to many other airports as well. At least around Europe.
 
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GlenP
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Wed Nov 11, 2015 9:54 pm

Why should anything that might have happened at Sharm el Sheikh affect the ME3 or European airports? It's a holiday airport at the southern tip of the Sinai Peninsula, in Egypt. I don't even think the ME3 fly into Sharma.

Even the ISIS affiliated group, which currently calls itself "Sinai Province" but used to be known as Ansar Beit al Maqdis isn't actually a part of the mainstream ISIS, that rules parts of Iraq & Syria.
 
abba
Posts: 1385
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 12:08 pm

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:02 pm

Quoting GlenP (Reply 96):
Why should anything that might have happened at Sharm el Sheikh affect the ME3 or European airports?

The problem is that if it proves to be ISIS or another terrorist group that have managed to get some of their sympathizers - or just one - employed at an airport (or have managed to convert one who did to their particular version of Islam) who in turn was responsible for getting a bomb on board an airplane then there cold be similar dormant sympathizers employed in many other airports in the ME or in Europe. It will then point to a mode of operation that will be very difficult to trace through background checks etc of airport employees.
 
Planeflyer
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RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Thu Nov 12, 2015 6:23 pm

Quoting Abba

The problem is that if it proves to be ISIS or another terrorist group that have managed to get some of their sympathizers - or just one - employed at an airport (or have managed to convert one who did to their particular version of Islam) who in turn was responsible for getting a bomb on board an airplane then there cold be similar dormant sympathizers employed in many other airports in the ME or in Europe. It will then point to a mode of operation that will be very difficult to trace through background checks etc of airport employees.


Like most things security is a numbers game.

Islamic Terrorists have an affinity for commercial aviation.

ISIS is clearly adept at recruiting. A significant % of the Muslim population is open to being recruited.

A smaller but nonetheless meaningful % of above-mentioned population is willing to commit acts of terror including suicide attacks.

Airports all across the west and of course in the middle east employ Muslims and a certain % of these have access to aircraft.

So far airports have done an excellent job managing this risk but if this even proves to be terror lots of questions will be asked.

Hopefully I'm wrong but the relative silence surrounding this event indicates ISIS may have been successful.
 
spacecadet
Posts: 3584
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2001 3:36 am

RE: Kolavia A321 Crashes In Sinai / Egypt - Part 5

Thu Nov 12, 2015 6:26 pm

Quoting Planeflyer (Reply 94):
In general, I'm very suspicious of the media not in a CT way but simply because most media is biased and won't admit it influences coverage.

And at least in America, they *want* it to be a bomb. That headline gets clicks. A somewhat obscure technical fault or faulty repair would not. So many of the biggest US sites have been seemingly actively looking for sources they can quote to say it had to be a bomb. CNN, for example, quoted at least two random "analysts" on two different days for their headlines - people not involved in the investigation and not even employed by US or any other country's intelligence services.

I'm actually glad that the US media has stopped reporting on this right now, because it could easily be argued that they were outright making stuff up. In the absence of official facts, they formed a narrative and then went looking for people they could quote to support it. And as long as they "balanced" the report with a quote at the very end from someone else cautioning against drawing firm conclusions, no one can hold them accountable for that.

It's really dangerous reporting, even if it turns out that they were right this time (the odds of that are really anyone's guess, given the lack of official info we have). This is the kind of thing that can turn public opinion and start wars.

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