Australian Aviation Thread Part 132

qf2220 · Wed Nov 25, 2015 6:41 am

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 191):
If the market is broken, (and an argument can be made that the CBR market is), then it's the job of policy developers, governments, and regulators to fix it. Not the airlines' job to voluntarily reduce their prices.

Id be really interested to know if there have been any studies into a decently timed train service. I AM NOT talking about a TGV/ICE/Eurostar, but one that might do 200kph, or at least let the current XPTs and XPlorers do their full 160kph instead of much much less (The current 4 daily services are scheduled at 4 hours up and down).

SYDSpotter · Wed Nov 25, 2015 7:29 am

Quoting qantas747 (Reply 183):
I really hope this new route that zeke is leaning towards is HKG-CBR. If only for the oneworld elites that will use it. A premium economy product as well as flat bed business class ex CBR would be well worth it. 3-4pw would be enough with an AM departure connecting to asia and europe.

I think the CBR market has long been missed by airlines. We really should have by now

3-4pw SQ to SIN 333
3-4pw CX to HKG 333
5pw NZ/VA to AKL E90/320
3-4pw EK to DXB

Well sorry to say, but the airlines clearly disagree with you. If the demand was there, they'd be flying there already.

Quoting qantas747 (Reply 183):
Its just annoying that airlines funnel CBR pax via SYD and MEL when they can get first mover advantage amd hrow their networks.

They funnel passengers via SYD/MEL because CBR cannot sustain a standalone service. First mover advantage means squat if there isn't a sufficient market in the first place to support 1 carrier let alone multiple carriers. Your best bet of an Intl service in CBR is seeing a narrowbody service being operated across the ditch. A widebody service to Asia and the Middle East will remain a pipedream in the short-medium term.

CXfirst · Wed Nov 25, 2015 8:12 am

Quoting csturdiv (Reply 195):
What is the details of this move, is Virgin Australia Regional getting rid of the ATRs?

ATR's are being progressively moved to the VAA AOC from the VARA AOC. At this point in time, most ATRs are already on the VAA, with, IIRC, 3 still on the VARA AOC. It won't be long before they are all officially part of mainline.

-CXfirst

747m8te · Wed Nov 25, 2015 8:34 am

Quoting qantas747 (Reply 183):
I think the CBR market has long been missed by airlines. We really should have by now

3-4pw SQ to SIN 333
3-4pw CX to HKG 333
5pw NZ/VA to AKL E90/320
3-4pw EK to DXB

But where are all these people going to come from to fill these flights? What you are describing are almost ADL levels of service and that is a city with a million odd more people. Sure CBR would have some business traffic, but not enough to fill widebodies unfortunately.

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 201):
Well sorry to say, but the airlines clearly disagree with you. If the demand was there, they'd be flying there already.

Agreed, while it be nice to have links to everywhere from every city, the problem is Australia is too far away from the world...CBR might be able to fill a narrowbody, but they don't have the range to reach the destinations further afield. So widebodies would be flying empty..and the airlines like making money by filling planes. As you say the airlines would already be flying there if the demand was there.

skyhawkmatthew · Wed Nov 25, 2015 8:42 am

The DC-10 fire bomber was deployed to Adelaide to help fight the bushfires north of Adelaide this afternoon, operating as "Bomber 9"

zkncj · Wed Nov 25, 2015 8:58 am

Quoting qf789 (Reply 182):
NZ will fly the 777-200/ER on AKL-CNS between 1st July and 9th October 2016 replacing the 767-300 on Fridays and Sundays

It seems the 772 is becoming the new 763 on the Tasman,

zeke · Wed Nov 25, 2015 9:14 am

Quoting skyhawkmatthew (Reply 190):

One of our most recent sims had us landing and departing CBR ( good diversion point for Adl,Mel, Syd), with a modern wide body there s no significant terrain issues. We carry engine out departures where required, it is no big deal. should be able navigate and route laterally within 200'.

qantas747 · Wed Nov 25, 2015 9:47 am

Quoting zeke (Reply 206):
One of our most recent sims had us landing and departing CBR ( good diversion point for Adl,Mel, Syd), with a modern wide body there s no significant terrain issues. We carry engine out departures where required, it is no big deal. should be able navigate and route laterally within 200'.

Is there a hint in there zeke?

Quoting 747m8te (Reply 203):
But where are all these people going to come from to fill these flights? What you are describing are almost ADL levels of service and that is a city with a million odd more people. Sure CBR would have some business traffic, but not enough to fill widebodies unfortunately.

Theres a 500K high average income population with CBR as their primary gateway. I take you're point on Adelaide ( as I'm currently living here) However Adelaide is only now starting to realise what they should of had for a long time

ADL now has:
10x Wk SQ (the extra 3/wk is seasonal)
Daily EK, QR(from 01MAY) JQ
5x wk CX
5x wk NZ
5x wk VA/TT
4x wk MH

and really could be stronger still. I get that they are very different markets, but CBR is almost like where ADL was 10 years ago. an afterthought where most pax were funnelled through SYD/MEL Ever since airlines have started committing to ADL, the pax are supporting it.

I just think the same would happen in CBR and like Adelaide, the first mover would be highly regarded (like SQ are in ADL as with CX and EK, they're quality carriers with large networks and prepared to commit)

VA would be in prime position to start challenging QF's strong loyalty in CBR if NZ and SQ both started services.

Anyway- I've harped on enough about this, thanks for all your comments

Lets get back to AA news (we're prob due for a new thread)

qf002 · Wed Nov 25, 2015 10:46 am

Quoting qantas747 (Reply 207):
I just think the same would happen in CBR and like Adelaide, the first mover would be highly regarded (like SQ are in ADL as with CX and EK, they're quality carriers with large networks and prepared to commit)

ADL wouldn't get the level of service it gets if it had SYD/MEL/BNE/PER just up the road. There is also SWZ to consider, which will only be two hours from CBR and will offer access to the broader Sydney market rather than just its southern fringes.

I certainly think the market is there but I'm not convinced that it's a particularly attractive proposition for the airlines.

csturdiv · Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:44 am

I am flying AA SYD-LAX-MIA on 19DEC. I called the Aadvantage reservations line today to see about upgrading and business is fully booked. That is one flight, but I guess that is good for this route. I'm flying them again in June SYD-LAX-ORD, I'll see about upgrading that one soon.

qf15 · Wed Nov 25, 2015 12:01 pm

Quoting csturdiv (Reply 209):
I am flying AA SYD-LAX-MIA on 19DEC. I called the Aadvantage reservations line today to see about upgrading and business is fully booked. That is one flight, but I guess that is good for this route. I'm flying them again in June SYD-LAX-ORD, I'll see about upgrading that one soon.

Not being a downer but that is the first flight so hardly surprising. Hopefully they do well though!

CBRboy · Wed Nov 25, 2015 12:53 pm

Quoting qantas747 (Reply 187):
It just bothers me that QF and VA so fiercely protect yields on CBR to the detriment of the public.

Quoting gemuser (Reply 189):
Of course they are! All airlines are fiercely protect yields on all routes, *when they can*.

The gouging involved in yields from Canberra is particularly pointed when you look at the prices for international fares from Canberra. Just as an example, the 'San Francisco on Sale' fares offered by Qantas to mark the return of direct SYD-SFO services involve the following return prices: ex-SYD $997; ex-MEL $998; ex-BNE $998; ex-ADL $1097;ex-PER $1097; ex-HBA $1232; ex-CBR $1246. All of these involve travel on QF73 and QF74 SYD-SFO-SYD

Quoting qantas747 (Reply 183):
Its just annoying that airlines funnel CBR pax via SYD and MEL when they can get first mover advantage amd hrow their networks.

Quoting SYDSpotter (Reply 201):
They funnel passengers via SYD/MEL because CBR cannot sustain a standalone service. First mover advantage means squat if there isn't a sufficient market in the first place to support 1 carrier let alone multiple carriers.

Don't bet on it! The market may be much bigger than you realise, but only QF and VA currently understand how many international passengers are currently departing from Canberra via other ports.

Quoting qantas747 (Reply 207):
Theres a 500K high average income population with CBR as their primary gateway.

Quoting qantas747 (Reply 207):
I get that they are very different markets, but CBR is almost like where ADL was 10 years ago. an afterthought where most pax were funnelled through SYD/MEL Ever since airlines have started committing to ADL, the pax are supporting it.

I just think the same would happen in CBR and like Adelaide, the first mover would be highly regarded (like SQ are in ADL as with CX and EK, they're quality carriers with large networks and prepared to commit)

VA would be in prime position to start challenging QF's strong loyalty in CBR if NZ and SQ both started services.

Exactly. The government business travel demand must see significant numbers of people travel ex CBR to the US (for the UN in NYC, policy discussions in Washington and defence exchanges or purchasing all over the US. Large numbers travel to North-East Asia on trade and cooperation missions. Large numbers travel to Europe for UN, WHO, FAO, and OECD meetings or to do business with the EC. Either SQ or CX could be well-placed to service much of this traffic with one-stop services from CBR.

I guess if I had the time I could mine the departmental answers to all those Senate Estimates questions about international travel by officials, and try to come up with overall figures. Or perhaps Stephen Byron or the ACT Government already have?

zeke · Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:04 pm

Quoting qantas747 (Reply 207):

Not at all, previous cycle had us mel-avv just a city pair on the network where we could divert to and recover. The sim sessions are 2 hr blocks you need a close city pair to make it work i.e. Hkg-mfn, icn-gmp, mel-avv, syd-cbr

vfw614 · Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:12 pm

Quoting cbrboy (Reply 211):

Exactly. The government business travel demand must see significant numbers of people travel ex CBR to the US (for the UN in NYC, policy discussions in Washington and defence exchanges or purchasing all over the US. Large numbers travel to North-East Asia on trade and cooperation missions. Large numbers travel to Europe for UN, WHO, FAO, and OECD meetings or to do business with the EC. Either SQ or CX could be well-placed to service much of this traffic with one-stop services from CBR.

Apparently government business travel is not a big enough number. The same is true for Berlin in Germany. Lots of folk are surprised by the lack of longhaul services from Berlin which is city of almost 4m and capital of the largest economy in Europe. But just being the capital with thousands of civil servants does not mean that long-haul services for airlines will work. A capital must also be the economic and financial centre of some size.

qf789 · Wed Nov 25, 2015 5:57 pm

Australian Aviation Thread Part 133 is now open for discussion

Australian Aviation Thread Part 133 (by qf789 Nov 25 2015 in Civil Aviation)

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