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Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:03 am

2020 seems modest in my opinion but realistically it could be 2025. Either way, yawn ....

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-air...-come-later-than-2022-ceo--2015-11
 
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Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:09 am

I posted this and another tweet in the existing A380neo thread. The article says 2022 could be too early, not 2020.

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Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:19 am

So what are we gonna do for the next five years or so?
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Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:19 am

Yeah I was looking for the thread and decided against looking through the soup of thread titles. So decided to open up a new one.

Mods, please correct the 2020 to 2022.
 
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:25 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 2):
So what are we gonna do for the next five years or so?

We could pull an "Andy Dufresne" and mail a letter to Airbus everyday for a couple of years telling them that we need the line to stay open so that we can keep the chatter levels on A.net on par. That, or he could tweet something that will keep us guessing as to what Airbus is going to do like open a second FAL line for the A380 in Hawaii.
 
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:21 am

So I doubted the '2022' part of this article because I follow someone from FG who was at the luncheon who said 2020. However, Bloomberg and Reuters are now saying 2022+. The quote about airlines not loving the A380 is the most disparaging comment I think I have heard him ever muster. Hard to see how just new engines can fix that sentiment. Here is a quote:

Quote:

It may be almost a decade or longer before Airbus Group SE debuts an improved version of its little-loved A380 superjumbo jet as the European planemaker tries to convince airlines that there’s demand for such a large plane, the chief executive officer of the airliner unit said.
Some carriers “don’t love the A380” because many have become more conservative in recent years, focusing on protecting market share rather than expanding with larger planes, Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier said Thursday at the monthly Wings Club luncheon in New York. A newer model, which could feature a stretched cabin and improved engines, probably won’t be available until after 2022, he said.
“Our problem is to justify that such a big aircraft has a market,” Bregier said. “Later on, there will be an A380neo, supported by Emirates and a few other customers, but we need a business case.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...bo-after-2022-amid-slow-a380-sales

I applaud Airbus for the maturity not to leap into this as I do think that putting 2020 engines on this would have been the wrong move. A pip and major overhaul around 2025 makes more sense and I think that is the way it is going.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 3):
Yeah I was looking for the thread and decided against looking through the soup of thread titles. So decided to open up a new one.

Cool by me. Doesn't matter where we discuss it. I find it interesting that we heard JL say 2022/2023 and now we hear FB say 2022 is too early just a couple weeks later. JL seems to be speaking out of term yet again.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 2):
So what are we gonna do for the next five years or so?

Good question. Further analyze a 777-10X?

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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:29 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 5):
Good question. Further analyze a 777-10X?

Great! Let's begin a debate on how much runway is needed just to lift off with only 3-5 degrees of workable pitch before skidding that tail!  
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:35 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 6):
reat! Let's begin a debate on how much runway is needed just to lift off with only 3-5 degrees of workable pitch before skidding that tail!  

That, or some kind of ridiculous telescoping landing gear to go along with the folding wingtips.

But yeah...Runway...Lots of it
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:43 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 2):
So what are we gonna do for the next five years or so?

We can rehash the arguments a la NAV30 for the next 7 years! Very large twin engine supremacy!
More power is the way forwards!  

This will put Brégier's (was it him or Leahy?) claim to be close to 2 new A380 operators to the test. They'll be scraping the barrel, but if they can squeeze those customers out and get EK to commit to CEOs, maybe they can tide it over. But that's using the rosiest of rose-tinted glasses.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 5):
The quote about airlines not loving the A380 is the most disparaging comment I think I have heard him ever muster.

Unfortunately this is the reality. Unless there is a sudden and inexplicable (and impossible) need for frequency to not be important, A380s just don't have the appeal, and I think even Airbus are resigned to that, so they're just scraping off what they can. At least they know that decisions in the future will be taken with a lot more consideration and sound analysis of whether there is a market for their product.

I wonder what they could do to improve a 2022 A380neo vs the A380neo we have been discussing on here though? The way the article is worded makes it seem like the launch is 2022, so say it's a 2027 bird, what would we see? A 777X-style makeover? A380-900?

Edit: NAV30 was right behind me with his rehashed argument! I should become a crystal-ball gazer!

[Edited 2015-11-19 18:50:19]
 
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:45 am

Surely the key 'issue' is that Boeing are confident that their proposed B779 (currently in development) will only require two engines to 'long-haul' up to 400 passengers? These will undoubtedly cost less to operate 'per passenger' than any B747 or A380?

Seems to me that Airbus should urgently develop and produce a 'big twin' of their own? The futures of both the B747 and the A380 clearly seem to be coming to an end, thanks to improved design and more powerful engines?

Sorry, MrHMSH, crossed with your post..........

[Edited 2015-11-19 18:57:51]
 
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:44 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 6):
Great! Let's begin a debate on how much runway is needed just to lift off with only 3-5 degrees of workable pitch before skidding that tail!  

I refuse to believe that an aircraft that is based on a 779 that can take off from DXB on a 40 degree day and reach LAX on a 16+ hour flight as EK has demanded is going to have trouble on a 12 hour flight like ~90% of A380s flights and the majority of A380 operators fly.

77W is an extremely capable aircraft that currently flies half of the top 30 longest flights in operation and the 777-9 is supposed to be even more capable than that and a modest stretch of that aircraft will have performance issues? Can't picture that. Regardless, such an aircraft would be positioned as an A380ceo substitute and therefore will only be needed at the World's biggest and best airports by definition (vs the 779 which will not).

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 8):
I wonder what they could do to improve a 2022 A380neo vs the A380neo we have been discussing on here though?

Well two+ more years of engine development is worth its weight in gold and actually based on the quote I think FB is not looking at 2022 at all at this point. Maybe we can get into a wide body geared turbofan which is impossible in 2022 in my opinion. Every year it waits is another 1%+ it gains against the competing engines. I think every year they wait the more modification opportunities enter into it. I think some airlines will have better opportunities filling their aircraft in 2023+. It gives them time for the market to come to them if it ever will. I think its very likely the widebody market will continue to fragment to smaller aircraft but if this is wrong the longer the wait the better.

Giving the 779 a couple years of getting airports/airlines comfortable with folding wing tips could be a good thing for all involved.

2023+ and options open up that could keep the 777-10 on the drawing board preventing it from ever seeing the light of day. A380 clearly owns the VLA market and it is up to Airbus to grow it, if it can be grown. If Airbus launched an A380neo with a 2020 EIS I think it would give the best chances for a 777-10. Every year Airbus waits I think the better opportunity they have.

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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:03 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 10):
I refuse to believe that an aircraft that is based on a 779 that can take off from DXB on a 40 degree day and reach LAX on a 16+ hour flight as EK has demanded is going to have trouble on a 12 hour flight like ~90% of A380s flights and the majority of A380 operators fly.

I concur! A 777-10 probably isn't the best move    I doubt that a hypothetical 777-10 would ever have the legs to do DXB-LAX, am I right? The segment is just within the range of the 777-9 by a few hundred miles, and that's not counting weather and other factors.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 10):
77W is an extremely capable aircraft that currently flies half of the top 30 longest flights in operation and the 777-9 is supposed to be even more capable than that and a modest stretch of that aircraft will have performance issues?

I would say so. I'm sure its range would be adversely affected.

Quoting rotating14 (Thread starter):
2022 seems modest in my opinion but realistically it could be 2025.

But back on topic.

2022 seems like a good year to aim for if the A380neo is to become certainty.

Like I said in my Airbus "Bandit Mask" thread, Airbus should stretch it (by 8-10 frames) and add A350 styled winglets, should they prove to improve the A380s economics.

And yes, they should add "Bandit Masks" to the A380neo!   I mean, look for yourself!

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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:08 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 11):
I concur! A 777-10 probably isn't the best move

I don't concur.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 11):
I doubt that a hypothetical 777-10 would ever have the legs to do DXB-LAX, am I right

It doesn't need to. That is what the 779 is for. We are talking a supplemental model not a replacement. 85% of EK missions are under 8 hours. That is what 'we' are talking about.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 11):
2022 seems like a good year to aim for if the A380neo is to become certainty.

The quote literally says 2022 is too early. That is the purpose of this thread. Its pretty damn clear.

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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:22 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 12):
85% of EK missions are under 8 hours. That is what 'we' are talking about.

Okay, I see now. A 777-10 would probably be very efficient, no doubt.Takeoff rotation is an issue, as the 777-9 will already be the world's longest, and range isn't a huge priority. But then there's the question of who, or rather, who besides EK?

And therein lies the conundrum of the A380neo.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 12):
The quote literally says 2022 is too early. That is the purpose of this thread.

Or 2025, my apologies.
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:25 am

"Smaller planes cost less to fly than the stately, four-engine jumbos, which can carry as many as 525 passengers. However, a recent drop in fuel prices has helped the A380 look more competitive."

I don't think that is correct in several ways.
 
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:59 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 13):
A 777-10 would probably be very efficient, no doubt.Takeoff rotation is an issue

It absolutely is. Zero issues with that. But I just think that a simple stretch of an aircraft that is so EK-capable can't be considered a takeoff dud because of a couple meters of extra length and very little to no MTOW growth.

I think there is a tradeoff available for those that don't need that crazy range that EK has requested and that has been built in and if the A380 isn't up for the task that a 777X may try to fill in.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 13):
But then there's the question of who, or rather, who besides EK?

As if you would need more than EK to launch a derivative! Look at the 778. ~60 copies and it appears worth it. Now look at every A380 operator other than KE, EK, and QF. CZ is still up in the air for me. I think SQ, LH, BA, TG, MH, AF, EY, and QR could operate every one of their A380 flights with a 777-10 and on the vast majority of their flights on the A380 they could save 15%+ on CASM vs the A380ceo and more than double their cargo profit per flight. I think that is compelling. Add to that 85% of EK's A380 operation and I think a derivative may make sense. Certainly more than 60 copies. Certainly depends on what happens with the A380.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 13):
Or 2025, my apologies.

Sorry, I should have been less harsh. I don't think we are talking about 2025 yet. Just that 2022 is too early; at least that is what I read from that article.

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 14):
"Smaller planes cost less to fly than the stately, four-engine jumbos, which can carry as many as 525 passengers. However, a recent drop in fuel prices has helped the A380 look more competitive."

Yes, the lower the fuel prices the more advantageous the aircraft that have better fuel burn look. I don't think $100/barrel oil is in our immediate future but it is still one of the main inputs to airline costs and that will be always focused on. Its just a matter of what impact that has on aircraft pricing.

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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 5:28 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 15):
But I just think that a simple stretch of an aircraft that is so EK-capable can't be considered a takeoff dud because of a couple meters of extra length and very little to no MTOW growth.

No, I suppose not.

If the A340-600 can, why can't the 777-10?  
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 15):
As if you would need more than EK to launch a derivative! Look at the 778. ~60 copies and it appears worth it.

Fair point. And other airlines have bought it.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 15):
I think SQ, LH, BA, TG, MH, AF, EY, and QR could operate every one of their A380 flights with a 777-10 and on the vast majority of their flights on the A380 they could save 15%+ on CASM vs the A380ceo and more than double their cargo profit per flight. I think that is compelling. Add to that 85% of EK's A380 operation and I think a derivative may make sense. Certainly more than 60 copies. Certainly depends on what happens with the A380.

I'd say a lot of what we're talking about would certainly depend on the outcome of the A380, especially if the A380neo fails to come into fruition.

So fine, perhaps a 777-10 is a plausible concept. We all know the 747-8 is on life support (or, rather, terminal life support), and most likely won't live to see 2020, at least, as far as the Intercontinental is concerned, so let's assume the A380 fails to not only see new orders, but also fails to launch the A380neo. I could see Boeing exploiting that misfortune in two ways:

1. Launching a 777-9LR
2. Launching a 777-10

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 15):
Sorry, I should have been less harsh.

You, Sir, are perfectly fine    It said 2025, so I misread.

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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 6:57 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 16):
No, I suppose not. If the A340-600 can, why can't the 777-10?

If you look at it you will see that the A345 vs A346 stretch was very big. Well over 7m and based on the A343 wing and 8-abreast. The 779 is a brand new wing based on the 779 (aka the A343) and the stretch would certainly be smaller than the A345 stretch let alone the A343 to A346 stretch and at 10-abreast giving even more capacity at the smaller stretch.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 16):
Fair point. And other airlines have bought it.

Exactly, if it is just a simple stretch then the costs are pretty manageable and the commonality is meaningful.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 16):
I'd say a lot of what we're talking about would certainly depend on the outcome of the A380, especially if the A380neo fails to come into fruition.

Absolutely, certainly. As I said before it is all in Airbus' hands as the A380 is the king of the VLA market. This hypothetical 777-10 is similar as the A350-1100....something to keep the OEMs honest as there are always alternatives to OEMs actions/inactions. The A350-1100 has more upside but Airbus certainly has to consider what the 77X could become when considering the A380. I am sure they are.

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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:40 am

Reply withdrawn - redundant. Sorry. -ir

[Edited 2015-11-19 23:45:08]
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:41 am

There is so much that can be achieved with the CEO by optimizing the cabin usage and maybe another PIP for the engine, that Airbus will be busy enough.

And this decision also frees capacity for a A350-1000XL or other projects.
 
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:54 am

I read that they are working on fixing the A380 production break even around 20 units per year until a new generation of engines is available around 2025.

This might mean add more seats, perhaps a A380-850 while already the A380-800 is a ULH aircraft and perhaps would be better with less range and more capacity.
 
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:57 am

Also when a A380 NEO was consider as most the oil were 110 USD and now it is getting closer to 45 USD per gallon.

The business case of a NEO has changed.
 
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 8:43 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 17):
The A350-1100 has more upside but Airbus certainly has to consider what the 77X could become when considering the A380. I am sure they are.

If the 78X is having issues with engine power on hot days from DXB you would guess that any stretch from the 77X would need more engine power or face similar issues. Or is this another similar small stretch of 20-30 seats, and then airlines will need to decide if the 30 extra seats are worth the extra weight and extra price, especially if load factors are only 80%.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 16):
So fine, perhaps a 777-10 is a plausible concept. We all know the 747-8 is on life support (or, rather, terminal life support), and most likely won't live to see 2020, at least, as far as the Intercontinental is concerned, so let's assume the A380 fails to not only see new orders, but also fails to launch the A380neo. I could see Boeing exploiting that misfortune in two ways:

1. Launching a 777-9LR
2. Launching a 777-10

What else do you think Boeing can do in the next decade? They have the MOM, possible NSA, upgrading the 787-1000 to compete better on range with the A359. This is addition to the 778 and finishing the 779. Now you want to add another two projects? Airbus will struggle to develop anything other than what they have on their plate now...but Boeing can add stretches and range aircraft and new designs and everything will be fine...does history teach us nothing?
 
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:00 am

With the PIPs planned, perhaps another PIP + more seats how much more efficient can the current version become?
 
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:18 am

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 9):

Surely the key 'issue' is that Boeing are confident that their proposed B779 (currently in development) will only require two engines to 'long-haul' up to 400 passengers? These will undoubtedly cost less to operate 'per passenger' than any B747 or A380?

Seems to me that Airbus should urgently develop and produce a 'big twin' of their own? The futures of both the B747 and the A380 clearly seem to be coming to an end, thanks to improved design and more powerful engines?

Surely the key 'issue' is that Airbus are confident that their current A380) will only PIPs on its Trent 900s or Engine Alliances to 'long-haul' up to 650 passengers plus as they find more room inside and a 3-5-3 economy layout?These will undoubtedly cost less to operate 'per passenger' than any B747 or 777 or A330???????

Seems to me that Airbus should urgently postpone their A380 Neo until 2025? The futures of both the B747 and the A380 clearly seem to be moving to innovation (Boeing just got another two new orders for their 748 so well done and bad luck to NAV hahaha!!!) thanks to improved design and more capacity with a potential A380-900 beast????? That will give any 777-10 potential a run for its money too.

Quoting olle (Reply 23):

We could look at a figure of around 5 to 6% to today's A380s over the next 4 years. It is now 10 years since the first A380 flew and it would be a good time for Airbus to start thinking of ways to improve the interior (the sort of changes that came with new generation A320s and A330 enhanced). Those sidewalls are for example something to work with.

Quoting olle (Reply 21):

That's not to say it won't be back to 110 in a few years. Any savings despite whatever fuel costs are goo for any airline and it's bean counter.

A 2025 NEO would be a prudent move.
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:25 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 19):
There is so much that can be achieved with the CEO by optimizing the cabin usage and maybe another PIP for the engine, that Airbus will be busy enough.

And this decision also frees capacity for a A350-1000XL or other projects.

"Optimizing the cabin" or engine PIPs (which is the job of GE & RR, not A) will keep Airbus "busy enough"? I guess no.

With the A38Xneo postponed into the indefinite future all the talk about a A350-1100 (which won't be called like that) makes more and more sense.

This also explains why they arn't looking at a simple stretch. With the A380 fading (temorary?) out it would leave the 777-9 as THE plane for the ME3 and many others.

Odds are high that airbus either makles a heavy derivate of the A350 with a stretch to 80m, new wing, new engines or even a all new plane (I wouldn't exclude that anymore). In the last case the A380 is probaply dead.
 
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:33 am

There is A330NEO, the A350, the A320NEO is also not done, there are low hanging fruits to be collected in the A380 cabin design,..

If you look at the development cycle, 2023 EIS means development would start in 2-5 years depending on how much work they want to spent on the NEO.

Do not forget a meaningful NEO needs an engine clearly better than the current options. This will be much more realistic by 2023 than by 2019/20.
 
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:36 am

While I agree that 2022-2025 is a more sensible timeline than rushing the project, and would buy time to wait for a new generation of engines (T900 is not that old, and a NEO should offer 15% fuel burn improvement, if the A320/A330 logic is to be followed). However, that's a long time to keep A380 production alive, even if they manage to go down to 20/year while breaking even.

Hence, I think Airbus could/should introduce significant updates to the CEO, such as PIP's, cabin optimization, and structural weight savings that go beyond the low hanging fruit. There is huge optimization potential in the current frame without going to a reengine. A lot more can be gained from that large cabin space, without necessarily going 11-abreast. In structure, it is hauling weight around for a MTOW that will never be needed, because if the -900 happens, it will only be in NEO shape (which will require much less MTOW than the original A389CEO).

Quoting seahawk (Reply 19):
There is so much that can be achieved with the CEO by optimizing the cabin usage and maybe another PIP for the engine, that Airbus will be busy enough.

  
 
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:00 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 5):
I applaud Airbus for the maturity not to leap into this as I do think that putting 2020 engines on this would have been the wrong move. A pip and major overhaul around 2025 makes more sense and I think that is the way it is going.

  
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 5):
The quote about airlines not loving the A380 is the most disparaging comment I think I have heard him ever muster

I thought the same - but the explanation he gives for that statement I think is spot-on... and sort of in line with what I've been saying as well:

Quote:
Some carriers “don’t love the A380” because many have become more conservative in recent years, focusing on protecting market share rather than expanding with larger planes

So to say airlines aren't that big fans of the plane is kind of stating the obvious.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 11):
2022 seems like a good year to aim for if the A380neo is to become certainty.

Like I said in my Airbus "Bandit Mask" thread, Airbus should stretch it (by 8-10 frames) and add A350 styled winglets, should they prove to improve the A380s economics.

  
I concur, and I've also said before that launching an A380NEO with Ultrafan engines for example would make much, much more sense, even though it pushes out EIS (to 2023 or later). The alternative is to launch this year or next with an earlier EIS, but with older engine technologdy when waiting a bit longer would allow achieving a much bigger improvement and also extend the life of the programme.

Quoting olle (Reply 20):
I read that they are working on fixing the A380 production break even around 20 units per year until a new generation of engines is available around 2025.

...which makes perfect sense.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 26):
Do not forget a meaningful NEO needs an engine clearly better than the current options. This will be much more realistic by 2023 than by 2019/20.

  
42
 
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:00 am

Quoting r2rho (Reply 27):
r2rho

This is a similar style to the development of A330 and A320. For example both A330 and A330 has been updated heavily beside the NEO. I agree that Airbus historically do not do a big bang like Boeing like to do but keep the NEO projects as changing engine and keep other changes as separate projects.

My experience as a project manager and system architect in Software I tend to agree to the Airbus strategy. It becomes more simple and easier to keep quality and control.
 
dare100em
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:00 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 26):
There is A330NEO, the A350, the A320NEO is also not done, there are low hanging fruits to be collected in the A380 cabin design,..

Design-wise, all these projects are nearly done, left is "only" the normal ongoing incremental applications for in-operation aircrafts, which isn't much on the design side (at least nothing to load up the xxxx design engineers Airbus has). Yes, all these programms facing further challanges regarding production-engineering and ramp-up, but that has nothing to do with the design and a FEM structural designer won't design a manufacturing facility the next day.

The only one left where there is still some design work is the A350-1000 (detailed design phase) and maybe on a very small scale the A330neo. Sometimes in 2016 a new programm will "take off" both at Airbus and at Boeing - while IMO Boeing has a little more left "do to" because the "MAX" isn't as advanced as the NEO and the 77X still with some (design) work left. For Boeing it's 90% plus the "MOM". For Airbus it's the question? While I personally think they'll get a problem in the sub-787 space too it's not imminent (the A330neo does it for 5-10 years).

[Edited 2015-11-20 02:04:57]
 
mat66
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:18 am

One could see it as Airbus not going to develop the 747-300 but instead going right to the 747-400. IMO the better move.
4 GTF Ultrafan engines, an optimised (new?) wing for a small stretch and lower MTOW for not needing all that fuel, a frighter version and 80m stretch. New 16 weel MLG? Kind of what the A380 should have looked like from the beginning plus the new engine technology.

Still not sure it will work out, but it will at least have a (last) chance.
 
Egerton
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 11:33 am

Quoting PhoenixVIP (Reply 24):
A 2025 NEO would be a prudent move.

Agreed. The A380neo will get done when there is a business case for it to be get done.
 
fcogafa
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:17 pm

Flight has picked the story up suggesting subtle disagreement between FB and JL on the date

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/airbus-chief-2022-too-early-for-a380neo-debut-419320/
 
r2rho
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 12:42 pm

Quoting olle (Reply 29):
Airbus historically do not do a big bang like Boeing like to do but keep the NEO projects as changing engine and keep other changes as separate projects.

For example, the A320NEO got the sharklets before NEO, and the A321 240pax version or A321LR will come separately after NEO EIS. Airbus decoupled reengining from other projects. Hence my bet on a package of improvements to keep the CEO going until reengining around 2022-25ish.

Quoting mat66 (Reply 31):
an optimised (new?) wing for a small stretch and lower MTOW for not needing all that fuel, a frighter version and 80m stretch. New 16 weel MLG? Kind of what the A380 should have looked like from the beginning plus the new engine technology.

No way they will do a new wing IMO, as nice as it would be. A new MLG I could see, since as I posted above, the originally envisioned MTOW will never be needed, not even for an A389NEO.
 
dare100em
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 1:12 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 34):
No way they will do a new wing IMO, as nice as it would be. A new MLG I could see, since as I posted above, the originally envisioned MTOW will never be needed, not even for an A389NEO.

If they'll do a really major upgrade including stretch etc. for EIS 2023-2025 (which is anything than sure IMO) they'll probably add at least folding wingtips to get the span ~90 m for a better aspect-ratio. The rest of the wing should support this without problems, because it was designed with even a -1000 in mind. I agrea that a total new CRP wing is very unlikely given the limited marked.
 
holzmann
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:08 pm

Conclusion as of November 2015: There is no business case for an A380neo.
DISCLAIMER: Airliners.net is an AIRBUS forum. Boeing Commercial Airplanes, if it has considered doing so in the past, should in no way consider supporting this website.
 
parapente
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:35 pm

People put too much store in RR Advance/ultra engines.They are simply 'markers' as to where RR would (like to) go if a major new engine programme is required between 2020-2025. To me this is firmly positioned against the Boeing MOM/737 replacement (same aircraft IMHO).Building a new engine costs XX billions and you only do it if you have won a place on a major new long term aircraft programme such as 350 or 787 etc.No way would it ever be built for 200 A380's! Ever. Not in 2022 or 2025 - ever.Clearly it it did win a place on the new Boeing project it would be totally the wrong size anyway.

As people have said above .
Either Airbus embarks on a 'simple refresh' of the aircraft.With new interior allowing 11 abreast comfortably (18 ins mantra) with RR 900 engines re PiPed and perhaps a tweak to the wingtips/endplates.

or/as well.

A proper re engine BUT with an existing engine.
Since it appears to be a fact that the T7000 can never be uprated enough to manage an A380 (particularly with hot n high requirements), clearly and obviously (no?) it has to be -
Trent XWB-79B 78,900 lbf (351 kN).
It can even have improvements.From 'simple' improvements taken from its newer bigger brother the TXWB 97. (it has I believe some newer core technologies that can be reverse engineered- and is bound to happen anyway within the A350 programme over the next 5 years).
Through to new composite/titanium fan blades and casing - this would also make a nice development for the A350 project 6 plus years into service.But of course requires a major capital investment by RR.Worth it if they choose to go in this direction anyway but not if otherwise.

But to wait for an 'all new' engine will be like waiting for Goddot!
 
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Polot
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:47 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 37):
A proper re engine BUT with an existing engine.
Since it appears to be a fact that the T7000 can never be uprated enough to manage an A380 (particularly with hot n high requirements), clearly and obviously (no?) it has to be -
Trent XWB-79B 78,900 lbf (351 kN).
It can even have improvements.From 'simple' improvements taken from its newer bigger brother the TXWB 97. (it has I believe some newer core technologies that can be reverse engineered- and is bound to happen anyway within the A350 programme over the next 5 years).

The problem is re-engining a plane with new engines, even if they are off the shelf, is expensive, and the Trent XWB doesn't provide a large enough improvement over the T900 to make it worthwhile. Airlines won't be willing to spend that much more money on the A380neo over the A380ceo which means Airbus and RR are basically eating the design/certification costs themselves, and we are not talking about a program that has already made Airbus a lot of money to begin with.

Much better to go for lower hanging fruit like giving up dreams of luxury liners with bars, lounges, and bowling alleys and push denser seating options that improve the plane's costs per a seat (especially as a lot of Neo talk also includes a possible stretch anyways).
 
aryonoco
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:53 pm

Right, so the question is, if the A380NEO isn't going to EIS before 2023-2025, how will they keep the production line going?

For years we were told that the A380 would break even at 30 frames/year production. This year we've heard indications that it might be able to break even at a number lower than that. Let's say Airbus can break even at 25/year. That is a hell of a lot of A388s that have to be sold to keep production running.

Right now Airbus looks to break even on the A380 in 2016 and 2017. The 2018 slots are mostly. Airbus might very well be ok taking a loss on A380 production for a year or two, but I do not see them losing money on it for 6-8 years.

So is it pretty much guaranteed that the line will close for at least a few years, possibly 5 years, before NEO EIS? In which case, what is the likelihood of the program ever restarting? Has such a restart ever been done in modern commercial jetliner's production?
 
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JetBuddy
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:55 pm

So the news here is that 2022 is a bit early for an A380neo to enter service?
 
fcogafa
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:20 pm

The Airbus Investors meeting must be immenent (the one where the CFO put his foot in it last year). It will be interesting to see if JL and FB have got their story straight for that.
 
Egerton
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:31 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 37):
But to wait for an 'all new' engine will be like waiting for Goddot!

But Goddot never turned up, the A380neo will for sure. Meantime the production rate will be slowed to match demand.
 
WIederling
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:38 pm

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 40):
So the news here is that 2022 is a bit early for an A380neo to enter service?
Quoting parapente (Reply 37):
But to wait for an 'all new' engine will be like waiting for Goddot!

If we follow the A330 / 787 story as an indicator
no apparent urgent need for an A380 NEO means the 777x is (significantly) delayed.
       
Murphy is an optimist
 
Egerton
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:41 pm

Quoting WIederling (Reply 43):
If we follow the A330 / 787 story as an indicator
no apparent urgent need for an A380 NEO means the 777x is (significantly) delayed.


I liked the chap stirring the pot, and the writer makes good sense also.
 
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Polot
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 3:46 pm

Quoting Egerton (Reply 42):
Meantime the production rate will be slowed to match demand.

How much lower can the production rate go before Airbus is losing money on them? What is the point of continuing to produce a plane in such low quantities that you don't even make a profit from them for years?

Airbus can't lower the production rate to match current demand, they need to do something, although not necessarily a full re-engine, to drum up demand.
 
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qf789
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:02 pm

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 8):
This will put Brégier's (was it him or Leahy?) claim to be close to 2 new A380 operators to the test. They'll be scraping the barrel, but if they can squeeze those customers out and get EK to commit to CEOs, maybe they can tide it over. But that's using the rosiest of rose-tinted glasses.

Im pretty sure that it was both of them who said they had 1 potential order for 20 frames and the other 10-12 frames

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 39):
Right, so the question is, if the A380NEO isn't going to EIS before 2023-2025, how will they keep the production line going?

Very good question

Currently they have sold 317 A388 with 175 delivered (this includes the 2 delivered this month). The leaves a backlog of 142 A388.

The current backlog includes

Air Austral 2
Air France 2
Amadeo 20
Asiana 2
British Airways 2
Emirates 72
Etihad 5
Qantas 8
Qatar 4
Singapore Airlines 5
Transaero 4
Virgin Atlantic 6
Undisclosed 10 (HNA Group)

Out of the 142 backlog there are 50 frames which are likely not to be built/delivered or up in the air. (Air Austral, Amadeo, Qantas, Transaero, Virgin and HNA Group).

Taking these frames out of the backlog there are only 92 frames. If Airbus slowed production down to 20 frames per year 108 A388 would need to be sold to cover the shortfall to 2025, if they produced 25 frames per year they would another 158 orders on top of what they currently have.

Where are these orders going to come from?
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DocLightning
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:08 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 10):
I refuse to believe that an aircraft that is based on a 779 that can take off from DXB on a 40 degree day and reach LAX on a 16+ hour flight as EK has demanded is going to have trouble on a 12 hour flight like ~90% of A380s flights and the majority of A380 operators fly.

You may refuse to believe, but the ability to lift off the ground is partly dependent on pitch. If the aircraft can't rotate, it cannot fly. This same phenomenon is what's hamstringing the 737-9.

Once the 777-10X is airborne then it can climb with increased pitch, but until it is airborne, it has to get off the ground first.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
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Mortyman
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:27 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 2):
So what are we gonna do for the next five years or so?

Continue the debate on how to turn the giant into a freighter plane ...  
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: Airbus CEO: No A380 NEO Until After 2022

Fri Nov 20, 2015 4:48 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 17):
The 779 is a brand new wing based on the 779 (aka the A343) and the stretch would certainly be smaller than the A345 stretch let alone the A343 to A346 stretch and at 10-abreast giving even more capacity at the smaller stretch.

Much to the chagrin of the flying public.

But I'm sure the 777X will be more comfortable than today's 777 in a 10-abreast Y.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 17):
Exactly, if it is just a simple stretch then the costs are pretty manageable and the commonality is meaningful.

Agreed.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 17):
Absolutely, certainly. As I said before it is all in Airbus' hands as the A380 is the king of the VLA market. This hypothetical 777-10 is similar as the A350-1100

And Airbus has that option to build on the A350.

They do have a bit to lose, but they also have a lot to gain.

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 22):
What else do you think Boeing can do in the next decade? They have the MOM, possible NSA

Boeing and the NSA/MoM is almost a given. Once the 737 MAX lineup is complete, I'm sure they will devote their effort to developing a 737 replacement.

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 22):
upgrading the 787-1000 to compete better on range with the A359

PIPs to the 787-10, which will be an incredibly economical aircraft anyways, will happen in due time. I don't think it's on Boeing's Urgent List.

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 22):
This is addition to the 778 and finishing the 779. Now you want to add another two projects?

Well, let's see.

By the early 2020s, Boeing would have long completed development of all 787 models, 737 MAX models, and would be finishing up on the 777X.

The 747-8 will probably be gone by then, which leave the 767, which probably takes little resources anyways, but could also have been put to pasture by then.

Boeing, with little to no effort, could very easily create a 777-9LR to replace the 777-8, and they could also easily create a 777-10, should the market warrant such a huge plane.

Then there's the NSA/MoM, which Boeing would have tons of resources to direct towards that project at that time, so I'm not sure where Airbus' "full plate" comes into this. Boeing is not in the same boat as Airbus.
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