DualQual
Posts: 706
Joined: Sun Mar 05, 2006 6:10 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Mon Nov 23, 2015 4:36 pm

Quoting Beatyair (Reply 34):

Agreement is still a ways off, if at all. An Agreement in Principle was reached. The MEC still has to meet, hear the details, get final language crafted, and vote on to send it to the membership or not. If ot goes out, it still would have to be approved by the majority of pilots. Knowing if it is approved or not is still 1-2 months away.
There's no known cure for stupid
 
Dash9
Posts: 292
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2008 3:40 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Mon Nov 23, 2015 5:34 pm

Quoting DualQual (Reply 50):

Agreement is still a ways off, if at all. An Agreement in Principle was reached. The MEC still has to meet, hear the details, get final language crafted, and vote on to send it to the membership or not. If ot goes out, it still would have to be approved by the majority of pilots. Knowing if it is approved or not is still 1-2 months away.

If UA is confident a deal will get done with its union then it can proceed with a condtionnal order. AC did the same years ago for a 777/787 order that eventually got cancelled due to their Union not agreeing to the terms. The sorted out the problem and eventually got a new order.

All this to say UA could order CS100 or E190/195 as soon as negotiations are completed with BBD/EMB, regardless of the state of negotiations with the union. They could even do this to influence the union vote.

-Dash9
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Mon Nov 23, 2015 8:15 pm

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 48):
I think the CS300 will be attractive to airlines if they can have 141-150 seats with 2-3 classes (F/Y+/Y), that is full capacity with only three FAs.

That's the CS500. But without enough sales from the CS100 and CS300, where will they get money for the CS500?

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 48):
IIRC LH Group took options on a further 30 CSeries when they ordered 30 for SWISS, and I can see the CS300 as an excellent replacement for A319 and B733 across the LH Group.

Absolutely. This is why BBD needs to have a fantastic launch at Swiss. The payoff could be a large order for 4U and then a trickle of orders replacing CRJs and 319s across the group.
 
User avatar
caoimhin
Posts: 451
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:30 am

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Mon Nov 23, 2015 8:22 pm

Quoting AngMoh (Reply 32):
3) One of the reasons for the dumping of oil by OPEC was to drive the US shale oil out of the business. That strategy does not work - US shale is much more resilient than expected.

This is interesting. I had heard the opposite--that the shale industry had been scaling down operations throughout the country. Can you say more about this?
 
apfpilot
Posts: 742
Joined: Wed Jun 05, 2013 4:19 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Mon Nov 23, 2015 8:38 pm

Quoting UA444 (Reply 40):
Only the Embarer and Mitsubishi will be competition in any 1st world country.

I don't know about the SSJ but Aviation Week had some pictures of the first C919 this week and there were some pretty funky doublers under the wings on both sides near the WTBF. Not exactly confidence inducing.
Opinions are my own and do not reflect an endorsement or position of my employer.
 
LSZH34
Posts: 668
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:33 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Mon Nov 23, 2015 9:03 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 52):
Absolutely. This is why BBD needs to have a fantastic launch at Swiss.

True. I say it once again: Eyes are on LX / Cseries at EIS. I'm sure many airlines are watching and if they prove to be reliable I see more orders coming.
 
A320FlyGuy
Posts: 266
Joined: Wed May 16, 2012 8:31 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Mon Nov 23, 2015 9:24 pm

Quoting LSZH34 (Reply 55):
True. I say it once again: Eyes are on LX / Cseries at EIS. I'm sure many airlines are watching and if they prove to be reliable I see more orders coming.

Agreed.

I recall reading an article that said that the DC-9 was a very slow selling product for Douglas until the aircraft had been in service for some time. t firmly believe that the CSeries will become a success and that all of the naysayers will be forced to dine on a little crow.

The patriot in me wants to see the CSeries succeed because it will allow Bombardier to become a more significant player on the world market...however, the realist in me knows that the program has been poorly maintained and that the Bombardier family needs to somehow have it's grip on the company reduced. Until this happens, I think that all Bombardier programs are going to be a gong show until the management team is able to effectively manage without family meddling.

The Bombardier family has got to wake up and smell the jet fuel - they can't behave like the company is their own private kingdom and this is 1955....that same kind of behavior and ignorance is what helped to expedite the merger between Douglas and McDonnell, since Donald Douglas was so reluctant in many areas to be realistic and respond to the needs of the market....but that entire situation is another story for another time.
My other car is an A320-200
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6314
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Mon Nov 23, 2015 9:31 pm

Quoting A320FlyGuy (Reply 56):
I recall reading an article that said that the DC-9 was a very slow selling product for Douglas until the aircraft had been in service for some time. t firmly believe that the CSeries will become a success and that all of the naysayers will be forced to dine on a little crow.

The 737 and 757 were also slow selling at first. Both are highly successful airplanes.

Hopefully, a major airline in the US will order some.
 
User avatar
GCT64
Posts: 1755
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2007 6:34 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Mon Nov 23, 2015 9:41 pm

I am assuming EMB will be doing everything it possibly can to kill the C-Series while it is in its infancy.
UA, DL etc will be in a massively strong negotiating position when getting pricing from EMB on the E195 / E195-E2 as EMB will not want any 100 off orders going to BBD. Definitely time for EMB to offer the lowest margin prices, if they get it right they could kill off BBD which would be a massive win for Embraer / Brazil across their whole product range.

Big stakes poker.
Flown in: A20N,A21N,A30B,A306,A310,A319,A320,A321,A332,A333,A343,A346,A359,A388,BA11,BU31,(..56 more types..),VC10,WESX
 
JHwk
Posts: 574
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2013 2:11 am

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Mon Nov 23, 2015 10:09 pm

Quoting gct64 (Reply 58):

I don't think Embraer has the pricing power or production capacity to control the market. Reality is they have a good backlog for EIS of the E2, but not amazing.

Bombardier is looking for orders of 30-50 planes at this point, which would be considered big wins...
 
Wayfarer515
Posts: 707
Joined: Sat Dec 07, 2013 1:56 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:33 am

The main issue is not the aircraft itself, but as someone else pointed out in a previous post, it is the risk that buying a C-series airplane poses in the long term.

Sukhoi had a similar issue with the SSJ100, being a new entrant and all, there had to be some guarantees regarding the long term commitment for the program. The Russian government had to make substantial loans to UAC in order to guarantee the residual value for at least the first 100 airframes, which were given a guaranteed residual value of around 10M USD each after 10 years.

Unless BBD or the Canadian government can provide similar guarantees it will be hard for anybody to take the risk. BTW, it is just a matter of time before Ilyushin Finance Company announce the cancellation of its C-series orders. After the Q400 debacle with Russia there is little or no interest in buying it anymore, it is a matter of when rather than if it will happen.

Another big difference between the SSJ program and the C-series is the price tag, even though the C-series is more fuel efficient, the price tag of the C-series offsets any efficiency advantage, which by the SSJ100 vrs E190 numbers calculated by Mexico's Interjet against Aeromexico's Connect is somewhere around 10-12% cheaper to operate than the E-jet. You can get almost 3 SSJ100 (28M USD per airframe @ list price) for the price of one CS100 (78M USD per frame), which is a no brainer in my point of view. Add to that low oil prices and the fuel efficiency is not a game changing factor anymore.

The C-series was designed for a time and market that is not there anymore, so they should go and find some 3rd world customers at a loss in order to showcase the aircraft, and stop dreaming of the big leagues in the meantime.
 
User avatar
Boeing778X
Posts: 3268
Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:55 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Tue Nov 24, 2015 5:42 am

Quoting CXH (Reply 5):
United is trying to get major scope clause changes in their union contracts with their pilots. Apparently they have told the union they would buy 100 CSeries or E2 jets or similar (100+ seat) planes if they agreed to lower wages for pilots flying those planes.
Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 6):
I would love to see the airplane go to UA.

So would I. If Bombardier can score UA, I'm sure that would silence the negativity for sure!

Fingers crossed! Would love that!   

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 12):
I really hope UA orders this plane. It is a beautiful aircraft and has tons of potential to even replace their entire narrow body fleet that's smaller than the 739 (granted BBD goes ahead with the CS500)

I agree completely!
But the CS500 would certainly need to be launched to cover the size bracket from above the E175 to below the 737-900ER/MAX 9. Now, if it's an order for 100, perhaps that could be an excuse to replace some of the order A320s, or handle routes that would otherwise be handled by regional jets.

But then, of course, there's the eventual 737/757 replacements that Boeing could possibly launch in the next several years. However, if UA can get those scope clauses changed, I cannot see any reason why the C Series wouldn't be chosen   Because if Boeing launches a true 757 replacement, I can definitely see UA being a launch customer. C Series, 737-9s and NSA/NLTs would make for a nice smaller half of the fleet!  
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9526
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Wed Nov 25, 2015 5:32 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 61):
If Bombardier can score UA, I'm sure that would silence the negativity for sure!

IMHO, it would not. It certainly would give the program a much-needed boost but it will take a few more such orders (or at least a handful in the double digits) to really quash the negative mindset. Some of the orders they have are shaky at best and we are entering a period of tremendous NB production totals in their market (or slightly above).

I'm hopeful, but certainly not overly positive.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
prebennorholm
Posts: 7000
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2000 6:25 am

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Thu Nov 26, 2015 2:22 am

Quoting A320FlyGuy (Reply 56):
I recall reading an article that said that the DC-9 was a very slow selling product for Douglas until the aircraft had been in service for some time.

You may have read that, but then you have read one of the wildest lies in the aviation history.

Douglas delivered 5 DC-9 the first year 1965 (EIS with DL 8 Dec 1965). Then they delivered 546 during 1966-69.

While during the next and last 13 years of DC-9 production (1970-82) they "only" delivered 425.

No other airliner in history had such a rocket start, then to fade into a small fraction during most of its production time frame.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Thu Nov 26, 2015 3:20 pm

The sad part here is the "tragedy of the commons" element. It's in the collective interest of all these airlines that the CSeries and Bombardier succeed. It keeps competition and pricing pressure up and technology moving forward. If the CSeries dies, no real pressure for next-gen development any time soon.
 
Wayfarer515
Posts: 707
Joined: Sat Dec 07, 2013 1:56 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Thu Nov 26, 2015 4:26 pm

Quoting YTZ (Reply 64):

The sad part here is the "tragedy of the commons" element. It's in the collective interest of all these airlines that the CSeries and Bombardier succeed. It keeps competition and pricing pressure up and technology moving forward. If the CSeries dies, no real pressure for next-gen development any time soon.

The market forces and geopolitical picture is not the same as before, there are newcomers such as the C919 or the MS-21/SSJ100, MRJ which will for sure have an impact on the aircraft industry, so on the competition side the C-series is just one of many different options out there, and unfortunately the only one lacking enough political "pull" to outlast some of its competition. In today's world it doesn't really matter if the aircraft is better or worse. Sad but true.
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:29 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 62):
Some of the orders they have are shaky at best and we are entering a period of tremendous NB production totals in their market (or slightly above).

Here is a list of the "firm" orders:
.
http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iVBlwPY9N_Lk/v2/-1x-1.png
'
And interesting discussion going on at Air Baltic Acquiring SSJ?.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
User avatar
rikkus67
Posts: 1298
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2000 11:34 am

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:48 pm

Ready to pop the champagne cork, Planemaker?
AC.WA.CP.DL.RW.CO.WG.WJ.WN.KI.FL.SK.ACL.UA.US.F9
 
YXXMIKE
Posts: 171
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2008 5:44 am

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:38 pm

Quoting rikkus67 (Reply 67):

He's had that bottle on ice for some time now...
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Thu Nov 26, 2015 11:36 pm

Quoting rikkus67 (Reply 67):
Ready to pop the champagne cork, Planemaker?
Quoting YXXMIKE (Reply 68):
He's had that bottle on ice for some time now...

There is nothing to "celebrate".   
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
User avatar
autothrust
Posts: 1468
Joined: Sun Jun 11, 2006 8:54 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Fri Nov 27, 2015 4:19 pm

Just my two cents:

The C-Series will be a excellent plane, however Bombardier has chewed more then it can bite off.

A project of this magnitude with many new technologies(for Bombardier unlike Boeing /Airbus ) is a huge risk.

Only time will tell if the risk will pay off.
Flown on: DC-9, MD-80, Fokker 100, Bae 146 Avro, Boeing 737-300, 737-400, 747-200, 747-300,747-400, 787-9, Airbus A310, A319, A320, A321, A330-200,A330-300, A340-313, A380, Bombardier CSeries 100/300, CRJ700ER/CRJ900, Embraer 190.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9526
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: More Depressing News For C-Series

Fri Nov 27, 2015 6:59 pm

Quoting autothrust (Reply 70):
The C-Series will be a excellent plane, however Bombardier has chewed more then it can bite off.

Well, hopefully "chewed" is the operative word for them, and that moving forward it will be easier sailing.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos