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tortugamon
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CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:46 am

This is an interesting article about the A380 in general and EK's 615 seat version but what I thought was interesting were these three paragraphs with my attention added.

Quote:
"SIA intends for them to replace the A380s coming off lease rather than to be for growth. These SIA A380s were some of the first off the production line and, as would be expected for early models, do not have the efficiency and programme lessons learned from aircraft delivered later. SIA does not believe this batch of A380s will be viable to continue operating.

The second-hand A380 market is uncertain given the large size of the A380 and its heavy level of customisation. Standard configured aircraft can fit easily into another airline's fleet, customised ones not so. Second-hand operators would have to be content with the type's basic configuration and willing to take on some retrofit work (SIA would not allow its custom seats to be used by others). More extensive retrofits could be prohibitively costly. It was recently enough of a challenge to replace Skymark Airlines' all premium economy A330s, a newer and smaller aircraft than the A380.

Emirates plans to replace its oldest A380s with new order A380s; it does not plan to operate 140 A380s at the same time - or any sum near that (comprised of its 67 in-service A380s and 73 on order as of Oct-2015). Although Emirates expects its aircraft, well utilised, will be scrapped rather than re-allocated, for its leased fleet that will be a decision for lessors. Whereas SIA has 10 year leases on its initial A380s, Emirates has 12 year leases, which mean its A380s only start to come off lease in 2020.
http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...ce=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

So my takeaways are the following:

SQ Points:
-SQ appears to have decided to return their first five A380s to the lessor.

-Scrapping is very possible, ('some believe they will be scrapped') due to high cost of interior mods and inefficient early versions. What is the first scrapping of an operational aircraft not involving an incident? Is this close?

EK Points:
-The EK A380 fleet size comment 'or any sum near that' caught my eye.How many A380s will be replaced by A380ceos?

-Only about 15 A380s will be 12 years old or older by 2023. Five more versions hit 12 years by 2024. The question becomes, assuming 12-year leases, how many does EK mean by 'any sum near that' because the more ceos they use to replace ceos the later the EIS of a possible NEO in my opinion. That would mean a fleet of ~120 but that doesn't sound like it qualifies as 'any sum near that[140]'. 11 hit 12 years old the following year - most leased to Doric.

-Also, are there really A380ceos planned for delivery after 2022/2023/2024 to accommodate these retirements? Some of us believe that the line won't be able to produce at rate during those years but if EK isn't planning on operating a fleet anywhere near the size of 140 and plan on operating them for 12 years each, I don't see how all of these things can be true.

I think if this is true then something has to give. (1) An order cancellation for EK. (2) EK operating a Fleet of 130+. (3) EK returning aircraft early. (4)Airbus producing aircraft at a profit at very low rate in the 2020s. All of these seem unlikely but but #2 seems most right and CAPA being wrong seems most likely.

Would like to hear your thoughts.

tortugamon
 
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BaconButty
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:54 am

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
What is the first scrapping of an operational aircraft not involving an incident? Is this close?

If by scrapping you mean parting out, we have a 10 yr old luxor example here: http://aviationweek.com/blog/10-year...old-luxair-737-700-be-parted-out-0 though iirc there were frames a couple of years younger than that. Of course, drink enough of grandma's cough medicine and you'll believe a DC-9 will outlive 'em all.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
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Matt6461
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:01 am

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
(1) An order cancellation for EK. (2) EK operating a Fleet of 130+. (3) EK returning aircraft early. (4)Airbus producing aircraft at a profit at very low rate in the 2020s. All of these seem unlikely but but #2 seems most right and CAPA being wrong seems most likely

EK moves to DWC in 2025, right? Doesn't seem like DXB can handle ~double the current A380 fleet. It's basically at capacity right now, with some marginal optimization room remaining for marginal capacity bump. Shifting some non-EK flights to DWC will give more room too, but is that room to double EK's A380 ops?

Of course if EK were planning to dump the 777 there'd be room, but obviously that's not happening. Plus EK is adding ~70 "regional" widebodies, most of which for growth over current A330 fleet.

I doubt that CAPA would publish something wildly off base. Their credibility is their livelihood; there must be some sourced basis for the A380 assertions.
 
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Stitch
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:15 am

The first 24 A380s have a fair amount of "hand built craftsmanship" in them due to the wiring reconfiguration. SQ and EK also have rather boutique First Class configurations (the Suites on SQ and showers with EK). Together, I would understand if the second-hand market interest in such frames is not there. SQ and three-class EK birds in general might not be of interest due to the reconfiguration costs and, as CAPA noted, those frames represent the majority of the current production run.

I am inclined to believe that frames from operators like Air France, Qantas, China Southern and Malaysian would be the ones of interest to second-hand operators as they have more...traditional...cabin outfitting. I could also see Emirates two-class frames being of strong interest as they won't have the heavy First Suites nor showers.

As for Emirates, I expect them to keep buying the current A380 model until - or unless - a "neo" or other significant upgrade is offered. I could see the active fleet being around 90 frames (at DXB) and perhaps 120 (at DWC).
 
Sooner787
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:19 am

I suppose if Airbus offered Virgin Atlantic 380's for $10 million a copy,

Delta might vote in favor of that purchase   
 
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enilria
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:22 am

Weren't there A318 scrapped after something like 6 years?

[Edited 2015-11-23 19:22:49]
 
AV8AJET
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:24 am

Quoting Sooner787 (Reply 4):
I suppose if Airbus offered Virgin Atlantic 380's for $10 million a copy,

Delta might vote in favor of that purchase  

LOL I was waiting for the first DL related post to show up!
"To fly or not to fly there is no question!"
 
hz747300
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:33 am

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 2):
EK moves to DWC in 2025, right? Doesn't seem like DXB can handle ~double the current A380 fleet. It's basically at capacity right now, with some marginal optimization room remaining for marginal capacity bump. Shifting some non-EK flights to DWC will give more room too, but is that room to double EK's A380 ops?

True! It's a lovely airport to kill time and transfer in (with the exception of the lounge not having airfield views), but it is terrible as a passenger traveling airport. Both of my flights earlier this year were about an hour wait from doors closed to wheels up. One was the LHR flight we lands in London ~7am, the other was the ~10am HK flight.

Based on the drawings, not sure which one they are going with, but DWC seems designed to handle a fleet of up to 140 A380s as it would be rare to have all on the ground at one time. More importantly, it'll have five runways!

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
SQ Points:
-SQ appears to have decided to return their first five A380s to the lessor.

-Scrapping is very possible, ('some believe they will be scrapped') due to high cost of interior mods and inefficient early versions. What is the first scrapping of an operational aircraft not involving an incident? Is this close?

I predict Air Atlantic will take these for Hajj Charters, and use them for ad-hoc Footie Charters the rest of the year. They'll be on the EI register.
Keep on truckin'...
 
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zkojq
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:50 am

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
Would like to hear your thoughts.

Why are people so adament that there is no second hand market for A380s? As I pointed out in another thread, plenty of carriers took 747-400s second hand. The biggest barrier for them would be price, IMO, but if there are going to be lots of lessors desperate to offload early SQ and EK birds, that problem would be somewhat negated.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 2):
EK moves to DWC in 2025, right? Doesn't seem like DXB can handle ~double the current A380 fleet. It's basically at capacity right now, with some marginal optimization room remaining for marginal capacity bump.

In a slot constrained scenario, larger capacity aircraft are essential if the airline intends on growing. As you mention, DXB is at maximum capacity (or very close to it). For EK, that means that growth comes from upsizing aircraft on existing routes, with minimal frequency gains. In recent years, we've seen A330-200 routes become 77E/77W routes, whilst 77W routes progressively become A380 routes.
First to fly the 787-9
 
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Matt6461
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:53 am

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 8):
In a slot constrained scenario, larger capacity aircraft are essential

Fine. But then you're telling a story about expected changes to EK's fleet composition. I don't see that in their order backlog.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:12 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
As for Emirates, I expect them to keep buying the current A380 model until - or unless - a "neo" or other significant upgrade is offered. I could see the active fleet being around 90 frames (at DXB) and perhaps 120 (at DWC).

At the rate the A380 are getting delivered Emirates passes 90 frames in the first month of 2017, their first frame comes off leasing in 2020. At the current pace, all 140 ordered will be delivered end of 2019, beginning 2020, before the first frame will end the current contract.
So somehow Emirates will operate more than 90 and likely more than 120 A380 at DXB. Regarding SQ, this article looks like a partly repeated article several month ago. We still have wait nearly to years to see what SQ does with the old birds.
 
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Matt6461
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:25 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 10):
At the rate the A380 are getting delivered Emirates passes 90 frames in the first month of 2017, their first frame comes off leasing in 2020. At the current pace, all 140 ordered will be delivered end of 2019, beginning 2020, before the first frame will end the current contract.

You can't just look at rates unless you assume that EK is willing to keep stepping into delivery slots that Airbus has lost. Over the last few years they've been doing this; it's not at all certain will continue.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 10):
Regarding SQ, this article looks like a partly repeated article several month ago. We still have wait nearly to years to see what SQ does with the old birds.

They came off lease in 2017 IIRC. The lessor needs to know long before the actual return date, in order to market the frames and/or arrange for refitting. SQ will have made that decision before it tells the lessor, obviously, and CAPA has contacts at all the airlines. Thus their reporting...

But if you want to just disregard things that don't fit a narrative, there's not much one can say.
 
tortugamon
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:42 am

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 1):
If by scrapping you mean parting out, we have a 10 yr old luxor example here

Thanks, parting out is what I mean. We have a leader. I bet there are others. But if it does happen at SQ it would really feel like a damn shame to me.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 2):
EK moves to DWC in 2025, right?

That is the idea but them order 140 A380s makes you wonder.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 2):
Doesn't seem like DXB can handle ~double the current A380 fleet. It's basically at capacity right now, with some marginal optimization room remaining for marginal capacity bump.

I think they have that other terminal opening up soon which could help and as you say below some operators will go to DWC but that seems to be very slow going.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 2):
I doubt that CAPA would publish something wildly off base. Their credibility is their livelihood; there must be some sourced basis for the A380 assertions.

Me too. Should have mentioned that. I highly respect them. Hence this thread because it sounds like you share my logic so something has to give. 2018, 2019 production rates look to be non-existent if the lion's share of the 50 units for EK aren't planning on being built until 2022-2025...That leaves virtually zero orders for 2018 and 2019.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
As for Emirates, I expect them to keep buying the current A380 model until - or unless - a "neo" or other significant upgrade is offered. I could see the active fleet being around 90 frames (at DXB) and perhaps 120 (at DWC).

If EK isn't moving to DWC until 2025 and they don't plan on operating more than 90 at DXB then why order the 50 units in 2013? They will run out of space long before they could take delivery of all of them and they don't start really timing out until mid-2024+ Thats the rub that I don't understand. Something has to give. All of these can't be true. Maybe DWC is coming along quicker than we though. I don't know.


tortugamon
 
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rotating14
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:58 am

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 1):

If by scrapping you mean parting out, we have a 10 yr old luxor example here: http://aviationweek.com/blog/10-year...old-luxair-737-700-be-parted-out-0 though iirc there were frames a couple of years younger than that. Of course, drink enough of grandma's cough medicine and you'll believe a DC-9 will outlive 'em all.

I don't think you can compare 737's to A380's in this case. You have so many options when it comes to getting spares for 737's. The A380, not so much. Correction. Not at all. You'd likely have to start building the infrastructure to house the parted parts.
 
eielef
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 5:05 am

I think that the idea of manufacturers of developing new versions or new planes each time faster, goes against all previous rules. For instance, when you finish paying a 12 year leasing of a B738, there is already available the B738Neo. Same with Airbus, AR finished paying the leasing and owing the A342 after 14 years, when the model was obsolete and a piece of history, and went direct to scrap somewhere in the US. (that was the fate of all four LV-ZPA, ZPO, ZPX and ZRA).
Why aren't today's planes so reliable as before, that you could use them 20 years or more without any problem? Today, if you fly in a plane with more than 10 years, you feel is so old...
Safety besides, as all airlines are supposed to update to the safety standards required by the manufacturer and FAA, i don't understand why we fly now B737NG and not any more B733/4/5, which were amazing and widely available.
 
aryonoco
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 5:07 am

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
I think if this is true then something has to give. (1) An order cancellation for EK. (2) EK operating a Fleet of 130+. (3) EK returning aircraft early. (4)Airbus producing aircraft at a profit at very low rate in the 2020s.

Very well spotted, and very valid points.

I'm not sure about CAPA's statement that EK doesn't intend to run anywhere near 140 A380s at the same time.

Either EK is going to run close to 140 A380s at the same time, or they are going to return a bunch of their frames earlier than the 12-year lease.

If EK is going run 120+ A380s at the same time, you'd think the move to DWC might have to happen a lot earlier than 2025.

As you say, they can't all be true.
 
tortugamon
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 5:14 am

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 8):
Why are people so adament that there is no second hand market for A380s?

Well I thought it was pretty well laid out but the article says that they are difficult to place because:
(1) The first couple are not very efficient so there are literally no lease rates that would make operating them make sense
(2) As Stitch mentions they are fairly unique so maintenance is tricky and one-off making them expensive to care for.
(3) It costs a ton to reconfigure the aircraft and considering #1 and #2 they first couple dozen won't be appealing
(4) The largest operators tend to have first class and business class that won't be easily re-configured for those that would be interested in buying second hand aircraft and the original operators would prevent them from using their equip.
(5) There are other A380s from Skymark and MH that are already on the market and available...
(6) Without enough consistent configurations that will minimize reconfiguration costs there is little motivation to buy early.

I don't mean to be rude but I am really just re-iterating what the article says so maybe you want to argue why you think these points are invalid? I do think there will eventually be a second hand market.

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 8):
plenty of carriers took 747-400s second hand.

A different world for multiple reasons:
(1) The 747s tended to not be leased on 12-year leases as that is a more common phenomenon and is true of most of SQ and EK's A380s which is half the fleet. Many original 747 operators operated them until the end of their 20+ year life.
(2) When 747s were operated for longer and then sold to second tier operators and the freighter world. The dedicated freighter world sucks now. There are less second tier airlines as well.
(3) There are more long haul aircraft available. 744s were some of the only aircraft to be able to operate some missions, now there are more options that are smaller and more efficient. The A380 is not uniquely qualified for as many missions.
(4) The 744 was more generic and less high-end first/class expensive J class seating with showers and stuff. Easier to reconfigure. A380s were highly customized.

Those quickly come to mind, sure there are others.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 10):
At the rate the A380 are getting delivered Emirates passes 90 frames in the first month of 2017, their first frame comes off leasing in 2020. At the current pace, all 140 ordered will be delivered end of 2019, beginning 2020, before the first frame will end the current contract.

Yes, agreed. The article clearly says the won't operate anything near 140 at one time so something isn't right. I do think CAPA gets a lot right.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 11):
They came off lease in 2017 IIRC. The lessor needs to know long before the actual return date, in order to market the frames and/or arrange for refitting. SQ will have made that decision before it tells the lessor, obviously, and CAPA has contacts at all the airlines. Thus their reporting...

Precisely it. I read at one point that they need to alert the lessor at least a year before returning it. I was expect to hear relatively soon so it makes sense to come out now. Plus it sounds like it was a relatively easy decision for SQ.

Quoting eielef (Reply 14):
Why aren't today's planes so reliable as before, that you could use them 20 years or more without any problem?

This is largely a bi-product of the leasing business that has exploded in the last decade or so. I, for one, do not think that aircraft are being scrapped materially sooner than they were in previous decades.

Quoting eielef (Reply 14):
Today, if you fly in a plane with more than 10 years, you feel is so old...

DL's fleet is over 17 years old on average. BA, LH also operate aircraft for the vast majority of their useful lives.

tortugamon
 
mjoelnir
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 5:30 am

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 11):
You can't just look at rates unless you assume that EK is willing to keep stepping into delivery slots that Airbus has lost. Over the last few years they've been doing this; it's not at all certain will continue

For 2017, 2018 17 frames had been planned for quite a while. Since than they have accelerated deliveries this year and next year. And even if Emirates will be easing off taking deliveries, January 2017 they will have 90 frames and even if deliveries go down to 12 a year it will be 125 frames before the first old one is returned to lessor. And that calculation is easy, simple addition. I thing the guys here believing that Emirates will stop at below 100 frames because of DXB will get a surprise in the middle of 2017. If Emirates gets really slot restricted, each A380 gives more capacity than a 777.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 11):
But if you want to just disregard things that don't fit a narrative, there's not much one can say.

Believing it fits your narrative. I just said they are repeating themselves and I remember the CEO of SQ having said not very long ago that it was not decided yet which way they would jump.
 
2175301
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 5:37 am

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 8):
Why are people so adament that there is no second hand market for A380s?

When MH sells even some of their A380's they have on the market since last spring I will believe that there is a market for used A380.


Have a great day,
 
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Matt6461
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 5:39 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 12):
something has to give. 2018, 2019 production rates look to be non-existent if the lion's share of the 50 units for EK aren't planning on being built until 2022-2025...That leaves virtually zero orders for 2018 and 2019.

Right, ok. On the assumption that CAPA is correct that EK won't ever have close to 140 whales at once, then options I see:

1. Airbus actually makes good on the annual promises of A380ceo sales, enabling decent production through early 2020's.

2. Airbus produces A380's for EK-only at ~1/month, losing $millions.

3. Airbus closes the line, perhaps as early as 2018.

Re (3) - Airbus surely foresaw the A380 backlog/production problem long before CFO Wilhelm spilled the beans in December 2014. The writing has been on the wall for some time now, given the A350-1000 and Boeing's foreseeable competitive response. At Dubai 2013, it would have been incompetent to sign a suicide pact requiring Airbus to build A380's if EK continued to be the only taker.

I bet Airbus and its counsel were sufficiently diligent and competent to include some "out" for Airbus regarding EK's 2020's A380 orders. That doesn't mean a free "out," but still an out less expensive than loss-making low-volume production.

Re (1) - Hard to believe after all of Leahy's broken promises.

Re (2) - Airbus should do anything to avoid it. The contractual terms sketched re (3) would have been the prudent course and, given Airbus sophistication, may very well be operative.

[Edited 2015-11-23 21:43:20]
 
81819
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 6:02 am

Scrapping early build A380's could bring a natural order of parts availability into play.

At this stage most operators are probably purchasing new parts direct from Airbus. This probably doesn't cause too many issues because the new parts are being used on aircraft that still have relatively long economic lives. In 2-7 years time the equation could change and second hand / refurbished parts may become the better option.

I don't see any issues with these aircraft being scrapped and in real terms this could be good for the program.
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 6:24 am

There could also emerge a new class of VVIP planes based on airframes coming off lease. Splurge on a custom interior... pre-wired and plumbed for showers.
 
Planesmart
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 7:01 am

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 9):
Fine. But then you're telling a story about expected changes to EK's fleet composition. I don't see that in their order backlog.

You assume current orders are firmer than previously cancelled orders.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 11):
They came off lease in 2017 IIRC. The lessor needs to know long before the actual return date, in order to market the frames and/or arrange for refitting. SQ will have made that decision before it tells the lessor, obviously, and CAPA has contacts at all the airlines.

The leasor wants to 'know', as soon as possible. In reality, the lease and associated side agreements include a series of 'trigger' dates, together with arbitration processes where these cannot be mutually agreed. Unless the parties have become hostile, discussions start almost from delivery, moving to negotiation as decision day approaches.
SQ definitely won't be telling CAPA before it informs those who are funding it's current, and hopefully future fleet. Unless they have fallen out.

Quoting eielef (Reply 14):
Why aren't today's planes so reliable as before, that you could use them 20 years or more without any problem?

We are in a throw away society. Unless this changes, despite very high engineering standards, planned obsolescence is the name of the game. Engine maintenance contract costs are a big factor, not necessarily reflecting actual costs for older engines. Software support costs too will determine obsolescence. Why not too many on here are still using Windows 95, 98, XP, Vista, etc.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
(5) There are other A380s from Skymark and MH that are already on the market and available...

How serious are the Skymark aircraft being marketed? Or are there already conditional agreements in place? Could this be the mooted 12 sales under negotiation - 2+10?

Legal action to ascertain the contract validity, including delivery delays on both sides, and then the amount still to be paid to Airbus (or in fact if Airbus has to refund a portion of previous payments), until known, negotiations, will at best be conditional on those outcomes.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 18):
When MH sells even some of their A380's they have on the market since last spring I will believe that there is a market for used A380.

Again, how seriously are the MH aircraft being marketed? How many times do you see cars on EBay with asking prices, or terms and conditions, where your first thought is, they must be joking.
 
eielef
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 7:31 am

But is also good planes which were forgotten, as for instance the A345 which, if i'm not mistaken is taking off for the last times with EK on the DXB-KBL in the next few days. Those of JJ were recently scrapped. And I see also scrapping of B777s, A32S, B717s, B737NGs, and even now these A380...
They are fleets quite old, like those of LH or BA, but they are replacing them astonishingly fast. I heard producing a B787 takes about a week. Maybe is that the manufacturers go way too fast, there is not a real need for these new planes, but as they are there available, some airlines buy them or lease them, scrapping good old reliable planes, and because of that these B787 consume less fuel than, say the B777, they think they'll make some profit later. THEY WONT.
Soon, airplane scrapyards (as the one recently built in Teruel/Spain), will become a mayor political, economical and environmental challenge...
 
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Matt6461
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 8:23 am

Quoting Planesmart (Reply 22):
The leasor wants to 'know', as soon as possible. In reality, the lease and associated side agreements include a series of 'trigger' dates,

The lessor would want to know as soon as possible, of course. But writing out lessee flexibility from a contract would have a price. And of course there will be arbitration agreements attached to all significant duties, and of course the parties will negotiate, in later years, using the previously-agreed rights as a baseline.

But from public reports of these contracts, it appears that SQ must notify of intent to return or deliver by 2016 at the latest.

Quote:
Airlines usually have to give around a year's notice on whether to renew leases for large planes.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...12540K20151005#QsgtUzyIgZ7ZIXeX.97
 
jmchevallier
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 8:39 am

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
I think if this is true then something has to give. (1) An order cancellation for EK. (2) EK operating a Fleet of 130+. (3) EK returning aircraft early. (4)Airbus producing aircraft at a profit at very low rate in the 2020s. All of these seem unlikely but but #2 seems most right and CAPA being wrong seems most likely.

Obviously, implementation of Option 2 above would address the DXB capacity crunch.

We need to remember that for some time, EK seriously considered split operations between DXB and DWC before to decide for the more orthodox one-shot transfer from DXB to DWC. We cannot exclude therefore that facing unsolvable capacity issues at DXB, EK might decide to temporary implement split operations between DXB and DWC.

Of course, it would have some impact on the efficiency of their hub operations, but DXB congestion too. On the other hand, EK operations in DXB are today so large that they could certainly survive a 5 years temporary split, until full construction of DWC.

An interesting issue will be how to split so as to minimize painful transfers between DXB and DWC (40km !).
 
vfw614
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 8:46 am

I am not sure about the logistics of handling a converted A380 as a freight plane, I must admit, but: How about the big integrators taking on a number of 2nd-hand A380 to haul their parcels across the pond? Certainly only a small number of routes would justify such a large plane, but a decade ago there was talk that while the A380 is no good fit for traditional cargo airlines, it could be useful for integrators who are more interested in volume than weight an aircraft can haul. Small market for sure, but there is also only a rather small number of A380s on the market at any given time.

[Edited 2015-11-24 01:14:26]
 
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Btblue
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:02 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 5):
Weren't there A318 scrapped after something like 6 years?

[Edited 2015-11-23 19:22:49]

Yep - I remember Frontier ordering a few and before you knew it they were being parted out.

Is there absolutely no market for an A380 freighter conversion programme?
 
tortugamon
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:21 am

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 15):
If EK is going run 120+ A380s at the same time, you'd think the move to DWC might have to happen a lot earlier than 2025.
As you say, they can't all be true.

Yes, or a split hub for a time period. Something has to give. Thanks for the feedback.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 17):
the CEO of SQ having said not very long ago that it was not decided yet which way they would jump.

Well it sounds like a solid source has the info on what they are choosing.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 19):
Re (3) - Airbus surely foresaw the A380 backlog/production problem long before CFO Wilhelm spilled the beans in December 2014

We have to believe that, right?

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 19):
At Dubai 2013, it would have been incompetent to sign a suicide pact requiring Airbus to build A380's if EK continued to be the only taker.

You know that airshow rubbed me the wrong way. STC seemed like he was marketing the A380 and it seemed like he was speaking to the board of Airbus to keep the A380 around. Not sure I can point to any particular quote but I remember saying to myself - this guy really thinks they are going to shut down the A380 program. I wonder if there was some desperation associated with that order for 50. This new info makes me look at that time differently.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 19):
The contractual terms sketched re (3) would have been the prudent course and, given Airbus sophistication, may very well be operative.

Yeah, I would think they would both have outs. I think Airbus has indicated their interest and EK has chosen to move some orders up. The question becomes will it be the whole 50 that moves up, and if not, then what? The 78X/A350 delay starts making sense here too.

Quoting Planesmart (Reply 22):
SQ definitely won't be telling CAPA before it informs those who are funding it's current, and hopefully future fleet. Unless they have fallen out.

Good insight. I do think they don't see a hope in negotiation. I can see SQ's position on that is pretty clear to them.

Quoting Planesmart (Reply 22):
How serious are the Skymark aircraft being marketed? Or are there already conditional agreements in place? Could this be the mooted 12 sales under negotiation - 2+10?

Not sure.

Quoting jmchevallier (Reply 25):
Obviously, implementation of Option 2 above would address the DXB capacity crunch

Well not so sure. Its funny because every time STC seems to talk about there being room for at DXB he seems to be talking about the A380. Not sure the smaller aircraft are as difficult to find parking/gates to accommodate.

Quoting jmchevallier (Reply 25):
We cannot exclude therefore that facing unsolvable capacity issues at DXB, EK might decide to temporary implement split operations between DXB and DWC.

I do think a split hub could be an option. It could be the logic behind the regional fleet order as well.

tortugamon
 
Amiga500
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:38 am

Is seems strange to me that there hasn't been a sales pitch for the likes of skyteam, or oneworld to have a few A380 or 747-8I that they can move around their respective members to meet surge demands.

i.e.

- Peak holiday weekends
- Major sporting events
- Major religious events
- Route trials for the member airline to see if its justifiable.


Hell - Airbus/Boeing should probably volunteer to run an empty frame for each alliance for a while so the airlines can try the aircraft out on any route.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:39 am

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 19):

One can of course life in a fantasy world were an aircraft manufacturer stops to produced ordered frames to oblige Matt6461, so that Emirates does not to have to accept frames they have ordered, so they do not get into trouble operating those frames in DXB. But than Airbus has perhaps also to stop to provide SQ with there ordered frames and anyway one has to assume SQ will stop replacing frames after replacing 5.
According to my calculation Airbus will not drop below 17 frames per year in 2016 -2019 just to supply the ordered frames to Emirates. And they still have to finish at least frames for Qatar, Ethiad, Air Asia and Singapore airlines. So I assume production will be at least 20 frames a year until year end 2019.

There is a simple solution for your worries, Emirates will operate between 120 and 140 A380 in DXB from the year 2020.

If DXB gets too full, why should it be better for Emirates to operate less A380 and more 777, rather than fewer 777 and more A380 to keep up capacity. There are 25 A380 gates in DXB used by Emirates and Qantas only as it is.
 
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Matt6461
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:40 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 28):
STC seemed like he was marketing the A380 and it seemed like he was speaking to the board of Airbus to keep the A380 around. Not sure I can point to any particular quote but I remember saying to myself - this guy really thinks they are going to shut down the A380 program. I wonder if there was some desperation associated with that order for 50. This new info makes me look at that time differently.

Totally agree. If he didn't think so - if he thought he was in a position to be the only man with the best plane - he'd have kept mum, secure in his fleet's competitive edge. Cancellation threat is the only rational reason STC wants others to buy A380's.

Quoting jmchevallier (Reply 25):
Obviously, implementation of Option 2 above would address the DXB capacity crunch.

With respect to runway capacity, ONLY IF Emirates flies fewer total planes as a result. A380's wake separation issues mean fewer movements (but of course more passengers per movement).

With respect to gate capacity, dunno if that's possible.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:43 am

SIA replacing old built A380s with new ones comes not as a surprise, this has been speculated for years on this forum.

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
-The EK A380 fleet size comment 'or any sum near that' caught my eye.How many A380s will be replaced by A380ceos?

No surprise here as well: when Emirates placed its order for 50 A380s, Tim Clark clearly said the last 25 units (CEO or NEO) are meant for replacement. That will give them a fleet of 115 A380s in DXB.

Quoting tortugamon (Thread starter):
EK operating a Fleet of 130+

I can see this happening. Last year, Tim Clark added that 'we [EK] are looking to accelerate delivery of those last 25 A380s '.
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:37 am

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 2):
EK moves to DWC in 2025, right? Doesn't seem like DXB can handle ~double the current A380 fleet.

First DXB was able to accommodate 'only' 90 A380s. After ordering 50 A380s in 2013, Tim Clark explained:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...bai-emirates-idUSBRE9AI1B420131119

Quote:
"So what we then did was to re-examine the real estate at the Dubai International Airport and see how we could use every trick in the book" to fit in more planes.

"When we did that study, the magic number came up. So we said, let's have them in," he said, adding, "we could have done another 10 if we found another bit of space somewhere in the (air)field."

And now EK talks about accelerating the last 25 units on order. I would not be surprised if they keep tweaking the airport to find additional space.

[Edited 2015-11-24 02:40:25]
What we leave behind is not as important as how we've lived.
 
skipness1E
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:43 am

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 8):
As I pointed out in another thread, plenty of carriers took 747-400s second hand.

The A388 is a much larger step up, and a different generation. The capital outlay to afford the

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 29):
Is seems strange to me that there hasn't been a sales pitch for the likes of skyteam, or oneworld to have a few A380 or 747-8I that they can move around their respective members to meet surge demands.

Who flies them? Maintains them? Insures them? Who carries the can if it's delayed flying for carrier A downroute and carrier b has 500 pax waiting?

Quoting btblue (Reply 27):

Is there absolutely no market for an A380 freighter conversion programme?

ROI is poor I think.

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 19):
3. Airbus closes the line, perhaps as early as 2018.

Time to bite the bullet, I agree.
 
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:27 am

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 31):
With respect to runway capacity, ONLY IF Emirates flies fewer total planes as a result. A380's wake separation issues mean fewer movements (but of course more passengers per movement).

With respect to gate capacity, dunno if that's possible.

If Emirates runs at certain times a lot of A380 one after the other, wake separation is a lesser problem. LHR handles about 475,000 movements and has a curfew. DXB handles 360,000 movements and has no curfew.

But again, Emirates ordered them, accelerated deliveries and you want to say they will not use them? Or stop suddenly to take deliveries because somebody here on A.net declares they can not use so many A380 at DXB at one time?

When they ordered the last batch of 50, it was declared that 25 were for expansion and 25 as replacements for older frames, that would have meant 115 at the same time in use. Since than Emirates has accelerated taking deliveries.

Regarding gate capacity, there will never be all A380 at the same time in DXB. DXB has today 25 A380 gates for the use of Emirates and Qantas only. How many contact gates do you need at a hub for a fleet of 140 long haul frames? how many gates takes Qantas away from Emirates? And what hinders DXB in adding further gates for Emirates?
AFAIK DXB is still expanding, building concourse D for around 15 million pax.
 
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:35 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 12):
Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 2):
Doesn't seem like DXB can handle ~double the current A380 fleet. It's basically at capacity right now, with some marginal optimization room remaining for marginal capacity bump.

I think they have that other terminal opening up soon which could help and as you say below some operators will go to DWC but that seems to be very slow going.

The new terminal will add 15m pax per year to DXB. Alot of airlines, if not all, are moving to the new terminal or moving to DWC giving EK room to expand in the existing terminals. That should mean EK can go from 49.3m pax to 70-75m whilst still at DXB. I can see the EK fleet of A380's exceeding 120 at DXB.
 
Amiga500
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:54 am

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 34):
Who flies them? Maintains them? Insures them? Who carries the can if it's delayed flying for carrier A downroute and carrier b has 500 pax waiting?

1. A pilot pool established by the alliance. Pilots are rented from alliance by member carrier for the duration of use.
2. Those in the alliance that use, or wish to use, the aircraft. I'm sure the framer would cut them a good deal as its a demo for them that might result in individual carrier orders.
3. Same as 2.
4. Good question... depends who was at fault for the delay I suppose.
 
TC957
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:00 pm

We shouldn't be shocked that SQ will look at offloading their early 380's for the ones they have on order coming in.
SQ rarely keep aircraft of any type more than 12 years old. It's their policy.
However, would it not be an idea for Airbus to buy one back for research and development purposes ? Surely it would be invaluable for Airbus to see how 12 years of wear and tear has taken it's toll on an early production frame.
 
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zkojq
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:01 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 9):
But then you're telling a story about expected changes to EK's fleet composition. I don't see that in their order backlog.

- Existing A330 aircraft are being replaced with the 77Ws on order.
- Some existing 77A/77E/773/77Ws are being replaced with 777-9s.
- Some 77Ws will be replaced with A380s.
- Existing 77Ls are being replaced by 777-8s.

How do you think the backlog should be changed?

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
maybe you want to argue why you think these points are invalid?

Sure:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
(1) The first couple are not very efficient so there are literally no lease rates that would make operating them make sense

This I find hard to believe. No question that the early build frames will be less attractive than slightly newer ones that don't have weight issues, but if the performance/fuelburn/payloadcapabilities of the first ones was so terrible, SIA wouldn't have accepted delivery of them in the first place.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
(2) As Stitch mentions they are fairly unique so maintenance is tricky and one-off making them expensive to care for.

This becomes less of a problem as the worldwide A380 fleet grows. It would happen faster still if the aircraft had a wider operator (and therefore MRO provider) base. Again, the 747 would have had this same problem many years ago, though the fact its worldwide operating fleet grew faster than the A380s would certainly have helped.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
3) It costs a ton to reconfigure the aircraft and considering #1 and #2 they first couple dozen won't be appealing

More per seat than a 744 (minus the showers)? I don't disagree that the first few will be less appealing, but problems that affect those frames won't affect the rest of the fleet.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
(4) The largest operators tend to have first class and business class that won't be easily re-configured for those that would be interested in buying second hand aircraft and the original operators would prevent them from using their equip.

Usually leases have strict provisions for the exact configuration that the aircraft has to be returned in. The CAPA article mentions that SQ wouldn't let subsequent operators use their seats, yet they did when Transaero bought 777-300nonERs from them. As you can see, the premium seats stayed fundamentally the same (aside from some awful cosmetic changes).


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This leads me to believe that the article means that SQ wouldn't let subsequent operators use their suites but wouldn't take issue with other premium seats. Anyway, I doubt that subsequent operators would have much use for the suites, so they're irrelevant once SQ removes them. As far as EK goes, the biggest issue is probably getting rid of the showers and associated plumbing, but if they're obliged to return the aircraft to the lessor in a neutral, 'white tail' state, then that's their problem to deal with. One thing I would say is that first/business seats now are much less generic than they were ten or fifteen years ago.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
(5) There are other A380s from Skymark and MH that are already on the market and available...

Yes, but the lease rates for a brand new A380 (even with a desperate owner) are going to be substantially higher than that of a 12 year old, fully depreciated one. With the lower lease rates comes a different 'audience' of prospective operators.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
(6) Without enough consistent configurations that will minimize reconfiguration costs there is little motivation to buy early.

Can you clarify this a bit please. Not sure I understand what you're trying to convey.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 13):
I don't think you can compare 737's to A380's in this case. You have so many options when it comes to getting spares for 737's. The A380, not so much.

  

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
(1) The 747s tended to not be leased on 12-year leases as that is a more common phenomenon and is true of most of SQ and EK's A380s which is half the fleet. Many original 747 operators operated them until the end of their 20+ year life.

A very valid point.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
(2) When 747s were operated for longer and then sold to second tier operators and the freighter world. The dedicated freighter world sucks now. There are less second tier airlines as well.

Another good point: again we see that a larger operating fleet makes operating the type more attractive, due to a wider pool of spares, not to mention a wider pool of expertise (engineers and pilots who are qualified on type).

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
(3) There are more long haul aircraft available. 744s were some of the only aircraft to be able to operate some missions, now there are more options that are smaller and more efficient. The A380 is not uniquely qualified for as many missions.

   This is surely the biggest 'hole' in the 747 comparison argument.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 16):
(4) The 744 was more generic and less high-end first/class expensive J class seating with showers and stuff. Easier to reconfigure. A380s were highly customized.

As far as suites and showers go, sure, but other than that most A380 operators have the same premium seats as other widebodies in their fleet. As such the issue of the current generation of premium seating being more complex (and therefore not as straightforward to reconfigure) should affect all current generation wide bodies relatively equally.

SQ:

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Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 2):
Their credibility is their livelihood; there must be some sourced basis for the A380 assertions.

  

Quoting Planesmart (Reply 22):
Engine maintenance contract costs are a big factor,

I hadn't thought too much about this. I wonder how many RR A380 operators aren't stuck in power-by-the-hour agreements with the engine's OEM.
First to fly the 787-9
 
skipness1E
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:06 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 37):
1. A pilot pool established by the alliance. Pilots are rented from alliance by member carrier for the duration of use.
2. Those in the alliance that use, or wish to use, the aircraft. I'm sure the framer would cut them a good deal as its a demo for them that might result in individual carrier orders.

Point 1 seems very unlikely to be practical given how angst riven pilots get with seniority and propietory around "their" aircraft, and I don't mean that as a criticism. It's never really been done since the days of the likes of BA / NZ DC20s and that was a world of pain to agree. Alliances are not businesses as such, such as you propose is hard enough to do across the likes of AA/US/HP or UA/CO never mind CX/BA who aren't exactly close. Good idea, but too many practical obstacles for it to be remotley likely IMHO.
 
hz747300
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:42 pm

I still think it's runways that are needed not terminal space at DXB. There is literally no room to expand DXB in a way to alleviate delays.
Keep on truckin'...
 
mjoelnir
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:47 pm

Quoting hz747300 (Reply 41):
I still think it's runways that are needed not terminal space at DXB. There is literally no room to expand DXB in a way to alleviate delays.

DXB with two runways and no curfew, is 100,000 below LHR with two runways and a curfew.
 
jmchevallier
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:56 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 42):
DXB with two runways and no curfew, is 100,000 below LHR with two runways and a curfew.

Key difference : LHR runways are independent, DXB runways are dependent as their separation is 380m only.

DXB could and will compensate this shortcoming by increasing night flights, which are prohibited at LHR.
 
skipness1E
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 1:00 pm

Quoting jmchevallier (Reply 43):
Key difference : LHR runways are independent, DXB runways are dependent as their separation is 380m only.

Only semi independent at LHR, parallel approaches are a no-go, they're staggered which restricts capacity a little (or not!)
 
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hilram
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 1:39 pm

Iran Air can buy them and replace their fleet of 747's  
Flown on: A319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343 | B732, 734, 735, 736, 73G, 738, 743, 744, 772, 77W | CRJ9 | BAe-146 | DHC-6, 7, 8 | F50 | E195 | MD DC-9 41, MD-82, MD-87
 
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lammified
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 1:51 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 40):
Usually leases have strict provisions for the exact configuration that the aircraft has to be returned in. The CAPA article mentions that SQ wouldn't let subsequent operators use their seats, yet they did when Transaero bought 777-300nonERs from them. As you can see, the premium seats stayed fundamentally the same (aside from some awful cosmetic changes).

Actually you'll notice that the seats on the Transaero 773s that were ex-SQ are actually brand new seats installed by Transaero. The 5 773s (SYA-SYE) sold to UN were never refitted with the 2006 SQ F seat.

The only premium seats (F) that I know of SQ allowing the subsequent operators to use were the 744 Skysuites. To date, no A380s, refitted 773s or 77Ws have been retired, so the point of SQ allowing the next operator to keep the seats is still a long time away.
 
airbazar
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:10 pm

I'm not sure there's any news here. It was always believed by most that SQ's and EK's latest orders were for replacement and not for growth. The "nowhere near 140" is a repackaged quote from 2 years ago. The entire article seems to be a repackaged news feed.
http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-ne...rates-ponders-a380-retirement-plan
"It is very unlikely [Emirates] will have a fleet of 90 A380s at any given moment,"

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 10):

At the rate the A380 are getting delivered Emirates passes 90 frames in the first month of 2017, their first frame comes off leasing in 2020. At the current pace, all 140 ordered will be delivered end of 2019, beginning 2020, before the first frame will end the current contract.

That only accounts for the leased frames. What about the frames that they own? Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see EK park older A380's and replace them with newer ones. Granted, that's still not a lot of them. According to this site, EK's 4 oldest frames are owned and not leased.
https://www.planespotters.net/production-list/search?fleet=Emirates&manufacturer=Airbus&subtype=A380-800&fleetStatus=current
 
BHXLOVER
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:16 pm

Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 19):
3. Airbus closes the line, perhaps as early as 2018.
Quoting skipness1E (Reply 34):
Time to bite the bullet, I agree.

This may be what you are hoping for, but reality may be quite different.
 
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Matt6461
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RE: CAPA: SQ To Return 1st A380s, Scrap? EK Fleet?s

Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:07 pm

Quoting skipness1E (Reply 34):
Quoting Matt6461 (Reply 19):
3. Airbus closes the line, perhaps as early as 2018.

Time to bite the bullet, I agree.

I really fucking hope not, unless they're launching a clean sheet VLA to replace it. VLA's should have a great role now and a bigger one in the future; unfortunately the only OEM with the guts to try VLA muffed it up so bad that they now appear trigger-shy.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 29):
Is seems strange to me that there hasn't been a sales pitch for the likes of skyteam, or oneworld to have a few A380 or 747-8I that they can move around their respective members to meet surge demands.

i.e.

- Peak holiday weekends
- Major sporting events
- Major religious events
- Route trials for the member airline to see if its justifiable.

I love this idea at the broadest level. You'd have to figure out some really thorny issues around crew basing, seniority, etc. Probably the best way to do it would be a separate corporation, jointly owned by members of a JV, with contractual obligations to run routes for certain airlines at certain times. But then you'd run into nationality rules...

Quoting ZKOJQ (Reply 39):
How do you think the backlog should be changed?

What I mean is:

-you've articulated a valid rationale why EK would end up with a greater proportion of its seats in A380's, BUT

-you haven't taken the next step and shown that the backlog envisions this transformation. I'm not even saying you're definitely wrong. Just that motive alone isn't enough to convince the jury; we'll need evidence is needed as well.
-------------------------------------------------------

A lot of other comments are falling into a predictable and boring strain of some folks sniffing "A380 bashing" and rising reflexively in defense. To me this discussion is about the rate at which EK plans to expand and the possible infrastructure constraints on the most aggressive expansion. We don't need to call out the A380 fan brigade to resolve these issues.

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