kaitak
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Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Tue Nov 24, 2015 8:21 pm

Today's unfortunate incident in the border area between Syria and Turkey is likely to worsen relations between two important regional powers, Russia and Turkey. But what effect will it have on civil aviation?

I am told (and I have to say that this is from a Facebook post, but I haven't seen it elsewhere), that SU will no longer operate to IST and TK has been banned from Russian airspace for a year. For TK, of course, it's not just the fact that flies to Moscow, but rather the fact that it flies to many other destinations in Asia besides, which could take it into Russian airspace. Hopefully TK will be able to avoid Russian airspace without excessive costs, but Turkey's actions won't help it.

Anyone have any further reports on official actions/sanctions imposed by Russia against Turkey?
 
SCQ83
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Tue Nov 24, 2015 8:50 pm

So no Turkey-Russia flights for 1-year?

Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
For TK, of course, it's not just the fact that flies to Moscow

Turkish serves 11 Russian cities from IST: Moscow (VKO), St Petersburg, Sochi, Rostov, Yekaterinburg, Stavropol, Astrakhan, Novosibirsk, Ufa and Kazan.

Not to mention holiday resorts such Antalya popular with Russians and served by Russian carriers.

So it is interesting... Russia will have no flights with Ukraine and Turkey... and also Egypt? Russia making friends left and right.
 
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Yakamoz
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:26 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 1):

And TK plans to add 6 more Russian destinations. That is now impossible.
 
directorguy
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:32 pm

For many people going to secondary Russian cities, TK was probably the best option. Service from EU to secondary Russian cities is limited.
Now that there are no Egypt-Russia flights due to the recent plane crash, many people began using TK. I imagine the next best option is now to go through AMS or FRA.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:32 pm

TK is the largest foreign carrier in Russia these days, but the market has contracted 18% so far in 2015.

Ultimately any reduction in traffic would likely hurt the charter carriers on both sides much more than TK as it never focused on carrying the millions of Russians to beaches along the Mediterranean.

But hey, if Russia wants to close its airspace, I'm sure Turkey will oblige similarly with its airspace and ports.

But frankly, I don't see it, as Turkey is key trade partner of Russia and now especially since Russia imposed various sanctions on European goods, much of it must come via Turkey instead so any restrictions would only further hurt already troubled Russian economy.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
MaverickM11
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:33 pm

As with most Russian moves lately, this will likely hurt Russians far more than TK
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
Kaiarahi
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:14 pm

This is all speculation based on a single Facebook post. If true, it would have been reported in mainstream media by now.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
frmrCapCadet
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 12:55 am

If they have not already started looking for 3rd parties to negotiate a recovery from this (hopefully minor) disaster I predict they will do so in the next several days.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
PacificBeach
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:07 am

Russia can retaliate in many different ways:

Go for economic/trade route to hurt Turkey.
Deploy S300/S400 close to Turkish border in Syria.
Wait for a opportunity to shut down a Turkish jet over the border and respond in kind.
Bomb trucks carrying oil to Turkey, etc...
 
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mercure1
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:28 am

Sure Russia can do lots of things, but I suspect most actions be like cutting off its nose to spite its face.

But I guess we should not be surprised if it seeks to do something because its angry even if it causes even more trouble for Russia in the long run.
mercure f-wtcc
 
dc10lover
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:48 am

From another board:

Israel News Feed ‏@IsraelHatzolah 11m11 minutes ago

BREAKING NEWS - RUSSIA: One of the biggest Russian tourist agencies announce a freeze on sales of flights to Turkey. (Via @AlMayadeenLive)
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
PacificBeach
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:50 am

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 9):
But I guess we should not be surprised if it seeks to do something because its angry even if it causes even more trouble for Russia in the long run.

There are other options which will not cause Russia too much trouble.

They can just supply arms to the YPG (and possible PKK too). US sent arms to YPG before and they are seen by the world as fighting the ISIS. So I don't think other nations will complain much about it. This would be nightmare scenario for Turkey. They will have a lot of difficulty to operate in Syria now without dangering own military assets as well.
 
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kelvin933
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:52 am

Quoting PacificBeach (Reply 8):

Russia can retaliate in many different ways:


Russia going overboard is likely to cause significant long term problems for Russia see the ITE pipline
http://pipelinesinternational.com/ne..._of_ite_gas_pipeline_project/85798
“Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.”
 
pipeafcr
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 1:57 am

Here in the a-net one must always have to make a thread out of highlighted news to see if there will be any repercussions in civil aviation, add that one to the core truths of the forum
Felipe Carrillo
 
Aither
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 5:41 am

After Egypt, now Turkey... it's time for Thailand to advertise a lot on the Russian market!
Never trust the obvious
 
SCQ83
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 7:01 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 5):
As with most Russian moves lately, this will likely hurt Russians far more than TK

That would be good for Aeroflot (so good for the Russian govt). Now all those passengers will need to connect in Moscow with SU as the only link with the outer world.

Quoting Aither (Reply 14):
After Egypt, now Turkey... it's time for Thailand to advertise a lot on the Russian market!

I suspect the big winners will be the Eastern Mediterranean destinations (Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece) which in any case are culturally the closest "beach destinations" to Russia. Also Spain to a lesser extent. Ironically, all those issues between Russia and Egypt and Turkey might help those other countries to regain the massive drop in Russian tourism.
 
b747400erf
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 9:10 am

Quoting pipeafcr (Reply 13):


Here in the a-net one must always have to make a thread out of highlighted news to see if there will be any repercussions in civil aviation, add that one to the core truths of the forum

Agree a waste of a topic, instead lets discuss who might serve MIA or why an airplane had a go around! That is much more interesting than talking about the possibility of airlines losing routes.
 
WIederling
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 9:27 am

Quoting PacificBeach (Reply 8):

YES Go for economic/trade route to hurt Turkey.
NO Deploy S300/S400 close to Turkish border in Syria.
NO Wait for a opportunity to shut down a Turkish jet over the border and respond in kind.
YES Bomb trucks carrying oil to Turkey, etc...

Military force escalation is exactly what Turkey is trying to go for.
If they achieve that NATO _must_ help.

Currently the US probably has smiled on Erdogan as "their man" but will not act
as they cannot openly show their support for ISIS ( backing Saudis and Turkey ).
doesn't fit the PR image.
Murphy is an optimist
 
[email protected]
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 9:30 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 4):
TK is the largest foreign carrier in Russia these days

Yep, with 25,146 seats/week based on w/c 23rd November 2015. In second place is Uzbekistan, with 23,018. In third place is Lufthansa with 20,568. Source: CAPA (OAG data).
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
peterinlisbon
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:56 pm

Putin's has made a statement expressing his anger and said that there will be serious consequences. Everyone is also aware that this was a deliberately planned attack probably ordered by Erdogan himself, given that the jet only entered Turkish airspace for 17 seconds and there was a Turkish TV crew and an F16 waiting in position and authorised to shoot it down. The fact that two pilots were killed and a rescue helicopter was subsequently attacked and destroyed makes it even worse. NATO is not going to get involved in a fight with the Russians over what even they consider a deliberately provocative act by Turkey.

Putin is going to want to do something to punish Turkey and he is now analysing what measures could be taken - this is why nothing much has happened so far. But I think the fact that they have stopped arrivals of Russian tourists could be onimous. Think about it: this is not the response, but rather a precaution because when they do respond they don't want too many Russians to be in Turkey. They are quietly evacuating their citizens in preparation for whatever happens next.
 
MD80Nut
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 3:29 pm

With so many armed camps fighting so close to the Syrian - Turkey border, the possibility of an escalation is very real. I hope for the best but the reality is that this could get very ugly soon.

I hope cooler heads prevail, but I'm not optimistic they will.

Cheers, Ralph
Fly Douglas Jets DC-8 / DC-9 / DC-10 / MD80 / MD11 / MD90 / 717
 
RIX
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 4:06 pm

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 19):
this was a deliberately planned attack...

Yes. The Turks deliberately planned Russian airplane invasion. Repeatedly. Then, they had their fighters ready near war zone next to their border - that is, acted in a totally weird unexplainable way, defying basic common sense - clearly, a planned provocation.

Quoting WIederling (Reply 17):

Currently US... cannot openly show their support for ISIS

                 
 
PanAm1971
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 4:07 pm

1) Cooler heads will prevail. The stakes in Syria are too low for any further risk by any outside power.
2) The deployment of the S-400 is mostly symbolic. The entire idea is to keep aircraft with anti-radiation missiles away from the radar and control system. At less the 50 miles from Turkish airspace-the S-400 will actually be within SEAD range of Turkish warplanes.
3) Up until the situation became tense in the Syrian civil war Russia was actually doing a very good job of gently pulling Turkey away from NATO, the EU and west in general. Despite these tensions-both Russia's and Turkey's leaders have a vested interest in maintaining that trend.
4) TK will experience a disruption. But Russian economic issues were already effecting the airlines Russian operations. When tensions reduce (and they will) and when Russia's economy returns to growth (less clear) TK's Russian operations will be back in the black... and those destinations will still have plenty of upside potential.
5) Russia and Turkey make too much sense. They'll find a way to get by these tense times.
 
oly720man
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 4:15 pm

According to Flightaware, there are 4 flights today between Moscow Vnukovo and IST and there doesn't seem to be any problems with them. 2 already landed in IST, 1 en route and one to leave in a couple of hours.

http://flightaware.com/live/findflight/UUWW/LTBA
wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
 
2175301
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 4:28 pm

Quoting peterinlisbon (Reply 19):
that this was a deliberately planned

It was that. Russia has been deliberately violating Turkish Airspace with armed military aircraft, and had been formally warned.

It is very clear under international law that Russia was legally the aggressor here, and Turkey had every right to shoot it down.

Putin did not believe anyone would stand up to his constant planned violation of international borders with military forces. Georgia, and Ukraine were the previous examples.


Have a great day,
 
frmrCapCadet
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 4:55 pm

NYT has about 3 articles up which give the background and history of the region. It is complicated, and Russia and Turkey are reacting as much to history as to other current interests.
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BlueShamu330s
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 4:55 pm

Great time to buy rental property in Phuket and Tenerife....
Flying around India
 
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bwest
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 5:11 pm

Russia won't attack Turkey... they need the Bosphorus passage among other things, and they don't want to get NATO involved. Something NATO isn't too keen on itself, but would be bound to by the NATO treaty (though one could argue that Turkey was the agressor in this case)

Those Turkmen in Syria however can expect a pounding, and I wouldn't be too surprised if Kurdish rebel groups in Syria and Turkey start getting supplies from an "unknown" source.
 
SCQ83
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 6:10 pm

It is scary... will Russia take down a Turkish Airlines flight full of European and Asian holidaymakers?

There is a well-known Malaysian precedent... scary.
 
UALWN
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 6:38 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 28):
will Russia take down a Turkish Airlines flight full of European and Asian holidaymakers?

No.
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/350/380
 
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Wed Nov 25, 2015 8:25 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 28):
will Russia take down a Turkish Airlines flight full of European and Asian holidaymakers?
Quoting UALWN (Reply 29):
No.

On purpose? Definitely not.

By accident? Does this incident increase the likelihood that there will be mistaken shoot downs of additional military aircraft on either side, or even a drunken missile launch on a civilian aircraft? Probably, by a tiny bit. Everybody will be more alert, more nervous, more military stuff deployed, etc.

Lets hope for the best.
 
aeroflop
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Thu Nov 26, 2015 8:40 am

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 24):
Putin did not believe anyone would stand up to his constant planned violation of international borders with military forces. Georgia, and Ukraine were the previous examples.

Alright mate, how about you do some fact checking before talking garbage.

The EU-sponsored Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Conflict in Georgia stated that, while preceded by months of mutual provocations, "open hostilities began with a large-scale Georgian military operation against the town of Tskhinvali and the surrounding areas, launched in the night of 7 to 8 August 2008."
 
2175301
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Thu Nov 26, 2015 4:20 pm

Quoting aeroflop (Reply 31):
while preceded by months of mutual provocations,

Since you are so fond of history and like to quote facts - please tell me who started the provocations...

In this case - every time that the Russian military intentionally flew into and over turkey was a violation of international laws, and would be considered at least provocations.

In this case there were formal protest and warnings through appropriate diplomatic channels... which were ignored.

In my opinion Russia likes to create and picks fights - and then claim they are the victim.

One thing I am sure of though... I'll bet that no Russian military jets have overflown turkey - or even got close to the border since the shoot down; and I'll bet that it won't happen again.

In my opinion, it is very unfortunate that someone has to resort to force to get another to follow international laws.


Have a great day,
 
Thenoflyzone
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Fri Nov 27, 2015 2:59 am

Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
For TK, of course, it's not just the fact that flies to Moscow, but rather the fact that it flies to many other destinations in Asia besides, which could take it into Russian airspace. Hopefully TK will be able to avoid Russian airspace without excessive costs, but Turkey's actions won't help it.

Turkish flights to East Asia (Japan, S. Korea, etc) rarely fly over Russia. Just have a look at FR24. Flights go over Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and China.

This will have very little impact on TK. Russian operations represent a small percentage of their overall business. Sure that's 11 cities in Russia that could potentially be discontinued, but considering they serve 280 destinations overall, the 11 in Russia are negligible.

Quoting bwest (Reply 27):
Russia won't attack Turkey... they need the Bosphorus passage among other things, and they don't want to get NATO involved.

  

As dictated by the Montreux Convention, Turkey can close the Turkish Straits to all foreign warships in wartime or when it is threatened by aggression. Additionally, it is authorized to refuse transit from merchant ships belonging to countries at war with Turkey.

Therefore it is in Russia's interest not to retaliate. If they can't access the Bosporus Strait and the Dardanelles, Russia's efforts in Crimea to secure their naval bases all of a sudden becomes irrelevant.

Putin has to tread carefully.

[Edited 2015-11-26 19:15:48]
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Yakamoz
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Fri Nov 27, 2015 6:49 am

How many flights are allowed according to their bilateral?
 
tu204
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Fri Nov 27, 2015 1:54 pm

I have not seen any official news about any restrictions.

Only the Foreign Ministry issued a statement advising against travel to Turkey for safety reasons, and several tour operators stopped selling tours. That's it.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Thenoflyzone
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:36 pm

New sanctions announced.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34954575

"Russia has announced a package of economic sanctions against Turkey over the shooting down of a Russian jet on the Syrian border on Tuesday.
A decree signed by President Vladimir Putin (in Russian) covers imports from Turkey, the work of Turkish companies in Russia and any Turkish nationals working for Russian companies.
The decree also calls for an end to charter flights between the countries.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has refused to apologise to Russia.
On Friday, he accused Moscow of "playing with fire" in its Syria operations. But on Saturday, he said he was "saddened" by the downing of the jet."
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
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enilria
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Sat Nov 28, 2015 6:56 pm

Russia only allows charters by their own airlines, so NICE JOB on that. That's like a reverse sanction.
 
ly7e7
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:19 pm

Given TK's competitive pricing and connectivity I doubt they will be affected by this ( obviously the economic situation in Russia causing the contraction of the market being left aside , as mentioned above).

Take as an example TK's business in TLV after the relations between Israel and Turkey cooled down.

Of course if Russia takes regulatory steps to prevent or limit direct non-stop flights the situation will be different.
2 things are endless: ignorance and space
 
captainmeeerkat
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Sat Nov 28, 2015 7:25 pm

Quoting ly7e7 (Reply 38):
Given TK's competitive pricing and connectivity I doubt they will be affected by this ( obviously the economic situation in Russia causing the contraction of the market being left aside , as mentioned above).

Perhaps not to Moscow but to smaller destinations where there are large numbers of Turks living to the east of Moscow, there will be an effect at least short term as visa restrictions and more difficult immigration procedures are put in place.

The question is: how long is TK willing to ride it out until relations improve again?

I have booked TK in March from KZN to fly back home for a few days and am seriously considering cancelling it now.
my luggage is better travelled than me!
 
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enilria
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Sat Nov 28, 2015 8:27 pm

Quoting captainmeeerkat (Reply 39):
Quoting ly7e7 (Reply 38):

Actually except for the fear-p0rn about vacationing in Turkey this is great for TK. All the Russian charter carriers leaving is great for TK and the end of visa waiver means little to TK if Turkey doesn't retaliate. This was a bit of a joke in terms of punishing TK, but it will hurt the hotels and tour companies.
 
Freshside3
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RE: Turkey: Russia Spat: Effect On TK?

Sun Nov 29, 2015 2:57 am

Quoting directorguy (Reply 3):
For many people going to secondary Russian cities, TK was probably the best option. Service from EU to secondary Russian cities is limited.

Especially AER......TK was the only scheduled service from a non-Former USSR country, IIRC.

Quoting Aither (Reply 14):
After Egypt, now Turkey... it's time for Thailand to advertise a lot on the Russian market!
Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 15):
I suspect the big winners will be the Eastern Mediterranean destinations (Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece) which in any case are culturally the closest "beach destinations" to Russia. Also Spain to a lesser extent. Ironically, all those issues between Russia and Egypt and Turkey might help those other countries to regain the massive drop in Russian tourism.

Greece, by ironic coincidence, had brought over some Russian travel industry officials, as well as some of the Russian press corps, for "Familiarization Trips". This was only a few days before the crash in Egypt.

Israel announced, a couple of days ago, that they would be spending the equivalent of 2.8 Million USD in Russia to promote their country's tourism.

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