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BayAreaFlyer
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Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Wed Dec 02, 2015 4:56 pm

The time has arrived, last WN schedule extension of the year 2015. WN will extend its schedule through 8/5/16. What's out next latest speculations and route rumors for WN in 2016?   
 
crazytoaster
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:10 pm

Any deliveries / retirements slated around then?

Hoping for WN to add Canadian destinations, summer time would be the perfect time. But really doubt they will, still probably a year or two away until then.
DEN homebase. Frequent traveler to IND and RNO.
 
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SANFan
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Wed Dec 02, 2015 8:38 pm

Quoting crazytoaster (Reply 1):
Hoping for WN to add Canadian destinations, summer time would be the perfect time

An interesting situation out west just recently took place and I wonder if AC suspects/knows something about WN and Canada.

AC just announced a whole slew of new trans-border routes from YYZ, YYC, YUL & YVR mostly beginning next May & June. Could this perhaps be a preemptive move against WN?

I'm particularly interested in your comment because AC is suddenly going to re-start YVR-SAN on June 2. There has been no service between the 2 cities for almost 4 years now and I was hoping that perhaps WN was going to jump into that market...


bb
 
Rdh3e
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:00 pm

Quoting crazytoaster (Reply 1):
Hoping for WN to add Canadian destinations, summer time would be the perfect time. But really doubt they will, still probably a year or two away until then.
WN will avoid Canada like the plague at least until the looney recovers. The massive currency headwind right now kills the business case. They certainly have more Carib/Central Am routes they could add where they will earn in USD.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 2):
AC just announced a whole slew of new trans-border routes from YYC, YUL & YVR mostly beginning next May & June. Could this perhaps be a preemptive move against WN?

No. You don't "make a pre-emptive move" of that size to thwart a competitor who doesn't even fly to your country.

This is certainly related to the fact that AC/WS are seeing huge competitive benefits from being on the CAD side of the equation. Fuel costs go up, but they're getting an effective "discount" against their US based competition on every other cost so they're surely having great success.

It's a great time for Canada's airlines in the transborder market, no doubt about it.

[Edited 2015-12-02 13:03:47]
 
airliner371
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:07 pm

Rumor last time was ANC but that it got pushed back. Maybe we will finally see ANC? I hope so at least.
 
rj777
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:51 pm

Hoping for some additions and new stuff at MKE.
 
ANA787
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:53 pm

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 4):
Rumor last time was ANC but that it got pushed back. Maybe we will finally see ANC? I hope so at least.

Summer would be the time to run ANC service. Would it be from OAK? SEA? PDX?
 
737tanker
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Thu Dec 03, 2015 12:05 am

The word I'm hearing is no new cities in the near future, just more dots being connected.
 
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enilria
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Thu Dec 03, 2015 4:12 am

I wouldn't expect too much this time since they did so many changes last month and they have to give that stuff some time to take bookings so they can make performance decisions.
 
dbo861
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Thu Dec 03, 2015 5:13 am

Quoting enilria (Reply 8):

I wouldn't expect too much this time since they did so many changes last month and they have to give that stuff some time to take bookings so they can make performance decisions.

But this is the summer extension which normally at least brings back some of the summer seasonal flying such as OMA-LAX which has been flown the last couple summers. I agree that several of the changes and new flights from the last schedule extension won't change.

What's the status on the 735/733 retirements? I know they slowed down when the fuel prices dropped, but are these going to pick back up again?
 
Mexicana757
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Thu Dec 03, 2015 6:20 am

Don't know what to expect from this extension. They cut alot out of MDW from the previous extension. Here hoping some dots get reconnected and new ones connected. Wouldn't mind seeing MDW-SJD, PVR, MEX, SJU announced.
 
NolaMD88fan
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Thu Dec 03, 2015 6:30 am

Hoping for MSY-RDU or MSY-BOS. RDU is right on the cusp in terms of demand to fill a 737, and BOS is only served 1x daily with an A320 by B6 right now. O&D was 326 PDEW on the MSY-BOS city pair in Q1 2015.
 
crazytoaster
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Thu Dec 03, 2015 3:19 pm

Quoting 737tanker (Reply 7):
The word I'm hearing is no new cities in the near future, just more dots being connected.

Isn't WN suppose to add 1-2 new international destinations per year? Thought they said that somewhere.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 4):
Rumor last time was ANC but that it got pushed back. Maybe we will finally see ANC? I hope so at least.

That would be great too.

I think WNs focus for new destinations is the Caribbean, Central America and summer time isn't really high season for those destinations. But it could still be a decent time to add prior to hurricane season.
DEN homebase. Frequent traveler to IND and RNO.
 
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enilria
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Thu Dec 03, 2015 3:50 pm

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 9):

Routine seasonal stuff aside, I don't expect structural changes like last time. OTOH, to the extent that was caused by their new schedule software I could be wrong.
 
usflyguy
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Thu Dec 03, 2015 8:22 pm

Quoting Mexicana757 (Reply 10):
Wouldn't mind seeing MDW-SJD, PVR, MEX, SJU announced.

I think MDW has customs and immigration capacity issues right now. From what I remember reading and hearing, they're working on expanding those facilities now.
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
737tanker
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Thu Dec 03, 2015 10:55 pm

I don't think WN will add anymore international cities in 2016. They will wait until the MAX comes on line in 2017 at which time you will see them adding cities in South America.
 
flyiguy
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Thu Dec 03, 2015 11:29 pm

We will see 4 additional cities added in 2016, all will be international ones.

Fly

[Edited 2015-12-03 15:30:29]
The opinions I post are of mine and mine alone, not of the airline I work for.
 
Mexicana757
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Thu Dec 03, 2015 11:51 pm

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 14):
I think MDW has customs and immigration capacity issues right now. From what I remember reading and hearing, they're working on expanding those facilities now.

Nothing has been confirmed by CDA on any expansion of the customs facilities. For now all of that is just just a rumor. The only expansion CDA has announced is of the bridge/ TSA area and concessions. Unless WN approached the city afterwards to make customs part of the future $248 million expansion.

The strain on the FIS gates comes between 4pm- 630pm when you have WN with 3 flights, Y4 and PD all having arrivals.
 
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AVENSAB727
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Fri Dec 04, 2015 12:03 am

Quoting flyiguy (Reply 16):

I presume all four will be flown out of HOU, as WN said that HOU will be their focus for expansion for the near future, so I guess that HOU will be the first to get the MAX.
Always look on the bright side of Life!
 
SCHATC422
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Fri Dec 04, 2015 1:59 am

Hoping for BDL-BNA, BDL-ATL to come back and or BDL-PHX!
 
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ERJ170
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Fri Dec 04, 2015 2:14 am

Here's hoping for anything new at RDU.. It's been a minute since that has happened. AUS, MSY, or MCI would be the top choices...
Aiming High and going far..
 
airliner371
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Fri Dec 04, 2015 2:49 am

Quoting flyiguy (Reply 16):
We will see 4 additional cities added in 2016, all will be international ones.

You're a very trustworthy source, I'm just curious was this an internal announcement or something?
 
wnflyguy
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Fri Dec 04, 2015 5:30 pm

I'm hearing only ONE new international destination next year.
GDL is the most rumored destination with 1 daily GDL-SNA/HOU and MDW.
MDW rumors are Saturday only service coming to SJU,SJD,AUA and PVR.

Is also rumored that this will be the first schedule completely built with Network Planning new SKYMAXS system.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
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knope2001
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Fri Dec 04, 2015 5:42 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 13):
Routine seasonal stuff aside, I don't expect structural changes like last time. OTOH, to the extent that was caused by their new schedule software I could be wrong.

Though I'm sure there are exceptions I don't generally think of their summer peak schedule as traditionally featuring big changes in previous years. New capacity funds summer peak expansion rather than a lot of new markets. And markets on the bubble for termination probably pay their way during summer peak. Of course there can be exceptions, and past performance doesn't indicate future outcomes as they say in many businesses. But if I had to bet I wouldn't expect this schedule to include the sorts of shifts the last one had.
 
INFINITI329
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Fri Dec 04, 2015 5:58 pm

Quoting Mexicana757 (Reply 17):
The strain on the FIS gates comes between 4pm- 630pm when you have WN with 3 flights, Y4 and PD all having arrivals.

Maybe MDW should start and international slot program so not to overwhelm CBP. That is is the smallest FIS I have ever been through.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:09 pm

Quoting NolaMD88fan (Reply 11):
O&D was 326 PDEW on the MSY-BOS city pair in Q1 2015.

Taking PDEW during Mardi Gras from America's biggest college town isn't going to give you a good idea of PDEW for the year. One daily sounds about right for this market.
a.
 
INFINITI329
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:33 pm

Quoting SCHATC422 (Reply 19):
BDL-PHX

I doubt BDL-PHX would work.
 
wnflyguy
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Sat Dec 05, 2015 5:07 am

LGB is a hot rumor around WN according to reliable sources.
WN short haul traffic returning to profitability add great fleet flexibility with new and used aircraft.
Adding 9 flights into LGB would be a easy undertaking.
Never say never with this new WN.
Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
NolaMD88fan
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Sat Dec 05, 2015 5:32 am

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 25):
Taking PDEW during Mardi Gras from America's biggest college town isn't going to give you a good idea of PDEW for the year. One daily sounds about right for this market.

The 2014 average PDEW for all four quarters on the MSY-BOS city pair was 315 PDEW. Overall demand grew by 4.6% from 2013 to 2014. Yield also improved by 1 cent/mile to 17 cents/mile. I used the Q1 2015 data since it was the most recent available in the previous post. The demand is certainly there for an additional flight. I picked the two most logical choices based off of the amount of demand and the yield generated on those city pairs.
 
georgiabill
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Sat Dec 05, 2015 3:50 pm

Hoping for MHT-DEN or MHT-PHX, MHT-FLL daily year round service and seasonal service MHT-RSW. One can hope! I would be happy if they added additional MCO and MDW service from MHT.
 
usflyguy
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Sat Dec 05, 2015 4:16 pm

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 27):
LGB is a hot rumor around WN according to reliable sources.

Isn't LGB slot controlled (via aircraft type) and aren't all of the slots in possession of carriers already?
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
crazytoaster
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Sat Dec 05, 2015 4:29 pm

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 30):
Isn't LGB slot controlled (via aircraft type) and aren't all of the slots in possession of carriers already?

Yes because of noise but 8-9 departures will be allowed next year. See
LGB To Receive 8-9 Additional Air Carrier Slots (by LAXintl Dec 1 2015 in Civil Aviation)

Not really sure if that would be worthwhile for WN as they have significant presence in other LA area airports
DEN homebase. Frequent traveler to IND and RNO.
 
Rdh3e
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Sat Dec 05, 2015 4:29 pm

Quoting NolaMD88fan (Reply 28):
Yield also improved by 1 cent/mile to 17 cents/mile

The B6 yield on the non-stop is only 14.8 cents. The yield on connecting tickets is only 11.8. I look at a bunch of time periods and it never gets higher than 13 cents for the total market average. My stats are 4QE 2Q15.

With all the other carriers pricing connections below the non-stop, The non-stop fare is never going to be high enough for the market to be a rock-star. B6 currently has ~38% share going via the NS.

LTM Fares:
B6 $205
UA $177
DL $176
AA $166
WN $126

WN carries about the same number of passengers as UA/DL/AA (40-50 PDEW), but their ability to generate a decent fare is non-existent. They are probably giggling in the cubicles over the suggestion, I guarantee you they read these threads for the entertainment value.

[Edited 2015-12-05 08:31:46]
 
wnflyguy
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Sat Dec 05, 2015 9:46 pm

Quoting crazytoaster (Reply 31):

Yes but adding another SoCal city like LGB grabs more California revenue.
WN would be a big hit with the South Bay crowd that hate LAX but aren't willing to trek to SNA or ONT.
LGB has a great feed with the 405,710 605 freeway traffic.
WN could easily run 4 OAK, 2 DEN, 2 LAS and 1 HOU.
Growing up at the end of Runway 30 it would be a dream come true to see WN at LGB.

I honestly don't think they would hurt any co station yields with LGB.
Plus with only 9 flights WN could easily use 3ed party contracting for Above and below the wing service saving even more cost per flight.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
dolphinflyer
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Sun Dec 06, 2015 3:00 am

WN served ALB-DEN n/s (Sat only) during Jun/Jul 2015 with load factors in the low 90s. Hopefully that service will return as daily this summer.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Sun Dec 06, 2015 3:07 am

Quoting NolaMD88fan (Reply 28):
The 2014 average PDEW for all four quarters on the MSY-BOS city pair was 315 PDEW. Overall demand grew by 4.6% from 2013 to 2014. Yield also improved by 1 cent/mile to 17 cents/mile. I used the Q1 2015 data since it was the most recent available in the previous post. The demand is certainly there for an additional flight. I picked the two most logical choices based off of the amount of demand and the yield generated on those city pairs.

That seems way too high. Are you dividing by two to get PDEW? If not much bigger market than I would have thought and if agree. But if it is actually 158 PDEW, doesn't need more service.
a.
 
NolaMD88fan
Posts: 1600
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Sun Dec 06, 2015 3:51 am

Quoting RDH3E (Reply 32):

Thanks for those numbers. I've only got the DOT stats to look at from the Domestic Consumer Airfare Report, so any additional numbers are great to see. I guess our best hope is if B6 decides to run an additional frequency eventually. They did increase capacity from the E90 to the A320 in 2014, so there is a glimmer of hope.

Also, I have literally been told on a local spotter page by airport personnel here at MSY that they get a laugh out of the postings on this site...including mine. Still won't stop this airline and airplane enthusiast from making guesses. Cheers!

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 35):
That seems way too high. Are you dividing by two to get PDEW? If not much bigger market than I would have thought and if agree. But if it is actually 158 PDEW, doesn't need more service.

Nope. I divided by the total number of passengers on that city-pair which the DOT shows as 652 in Q1 15. BOS was the 11th largest market from MSY in that quarter, and was the 12th largest market in 2014.
 
dbo861
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Sun Dec 06, 2015 5:04 pm

Could we see any station closures this time around?
 
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enilria
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Sun Dec 06, 2015 5:12 pm

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 37):
Could we see any station closures this time around?

I think the stations that are at risk all saw substantial schedule changes in the last schedule update. I don't think they would move that quickly without really giving the new plan a chance, so that is fairly unlikely.
 
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enilria
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Mon Dec 07, 2015 4:09 pm

From another thread, it would appear BUR-DAL will be announced tomorrow. We don't know for sure it is DAL, but that is the consensus candidate.
 
lat41
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Mon Dec 07, 2015 5:47 pm

Quoting georgiabill (Reply 29):
Hoping for MHT-DEN or MHT-PHX, MHT-FLL daily year round service and seasonal service MHT-RSW. One can hope! I would be happy if they added additional MCO and MDW service from MHT.

Southwest thinned out MHT and to a lesser extent Providence to the South to help build up BOS. However some of those new flights at BOS have to constantly be on the "Click N' Save" bargain page to combat the withering competition there. In chace of yield, one wonders what was gained,if anything. I believe WN has encounterd this in other parts of the country where successful service was plucked from a perimeter city and the service added at the super city encountered tougher completion than Southwest bargained for. PHX and LAS service, though popular was claimed to have too may passengers on continuing on to destinations with lower fares than the city they just changed planes at which dug into yield.
 
RL757PVD
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Mon Dec 07, 2015 5:57 pm

Quoting lat41 (Reply 40):
Southwest thinned out MHT and to a lesser extent Providence to the South to help build up BOS. However some of those new flights at BOS have to constantly be on the "Click N' Save" bargain page to combat the withering competition there. I

WN has had some pathetically low fares on the BOS-MDW route even after cutting frequency down to just 3-4x. CAK was cut, MCI is down to 1x and the combined BOS-BNA at 5x between B6 and WN is certainly not sustainable. WN's BOS strategy has essentially been to shut B6 growth down (BNA STL MCI CMH IND aka the next round of hypotheticals for B6). I imagine the battle for BOS-Texas (Houston/Dallas/Austin) has been a bloodbath for both B6 and WN.

I dont expect many changes this time around, but i'd venture to guess MKE and BNA lose frequencies by next winter, perhaps CMH/IND, but they may keep those to keep B6 at bay. .
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
flyCMH
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Mon Dec 07, 2015 7:00 pm

Personally, CMH-HOU/MCI would be fantastic additions. Both would likely be the next logical cities to expand service from CMH. Long run would be CMH-MSY, though G4 appears to have had some success on LCK-MSY, so it might not be completely out of the question.
 
ScottB
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Mon Dec 07, 2015 10:53 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 35):
That seems way too high. Are you dividing by two to get PDEW? If not much bigger market than I would have thought and if agree. But if it is actually 158 PDEW, doesn't need more service.

BOS-MSY (airport pair) was 270 PDEW in 1Q2015 (540 combined).

Quoting wnflyguy (Reply 33):
LGB has a great feed with the 405,710 605 freeway traffic.
WN could easily run 4 OAK, 2 DEN, 2 LAS and 1 HOU.

That won't work up against superior frequency to all markets at LAX & SNA. The convenience of the local airport has to outweigh an inconvenient schedule or they end up having to compete against themselves at LAX & SNA by undercutting their own prices. On LAX-HOU, it's just easier to take one of the five daily flights than to have to schedule around a single daily LGB-HOU frequency.

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 41):
WN's BOS strategy has essentially been to shut B6 growth down (BNA STL MCI CMH IND aka the next round of hypotheticals for B6).

IMO the strategy in all the markets you listed has actually been to add key non-stop business airports from those cities in order to become the preferred carrier for business travelers -- akin to NW's Heartland strategy. WN serves all three of DCA, LGA, & BOS from those five airports with the exception of CMH-LGA. WN serves relatively few of the top markets from BOS, but they serve most of the top markets from BNA/STL/MCI/CMH/IND (and MKE as well).

Quoting SANFan (Reply 2):
I'm particularly interested in your comment because AC is suddenly going to re-start YVR-SAN on June 2. There has been no service between the 2 cities for almost 4 years now and I was hoping that perhaps WN was going to jump into that market...

If anything I'd expect it more to be a preemptive move against AS.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14838
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Tue Dec 08, 2015 2:34 am

Quoting ScottB (Reply 43):
IMO the strategy in all the markets you listed has actually been to add key non-stop business airports from those cities in order to become the preferred carrier for business travelers -- akin to NW's Heartland strategy. WN serves all three of DCA, LGA, & BOS from those five airports with the exception of CMH-LGA

   If you pick a bucket of the top 10-15 business markets in any of the cities you have discussed, WN will generally serve more of those than any of the Big 3. At STL and MKE they probably serve each of them and in places like BNA and MCI all but one or two.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
lakeeffect
Posts: 502
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Tue Dec 08, 2015 11:48 am

WN is adding CLE-STL with this extension. This seems like a logical add for WN; we'll see how UA reacts as they still fly a 2x RJ on the route.
 
BayAreaFlyer
Topic Author
Posts: 100
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Tue Dec 08, 2015 11:54 am

WN is adding OAK-STL followed by the schedule. Including DAL-BUR 1x daily.
 
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knope2001
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Tue Dec 08, 2015 12:02 pm

New schedule at MKE is essentially status quo year-over-year with the seasonal second daily nonstops to LAX, SFO and SEA added. MKE-SAN returns as a Saturday-only nonstop. The only y-o-y change is MKE-STL going from 2x to 1x, a change rolled out with the spring schedule.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 44):
If you pick a bucket of the top 10-15 business markets in any of the cities you have discussed, WN will generally serve more of those than any of the Big 3. At STL and MKE they probably serve each of them and in places like BNA and MCI all but one or two.

At MKE it's15 of the top 15 markets using the most recent quarter (Q1 2015).
 
ryanrap1
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Tue Dec 08, 2015 1:02 pm

Can anyone confirm if there were any changes for the SAT Station?
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: Next SWA Schedule Update 08 Dec

Tue Dec 08, 2015 1:03 pm

PNS-MCI and PNS-DAL both being added as Saturday only flights. The DAL flight isn't a surprise as there is strong demand from Dallas-Forth Worth region. If gate space wasn't limited, I could even see this flight go daily.

PNS-MCI is a bit unusual, though it's only on Saturday's so not a big risk for WN. I would have expected STL-PNS before MCI.

Everything else remains status-quo at PNS with 2x daily to BNA, 1x daily to HOU and the resumption of Saturday only service to MDW.

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