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SunsetLimited
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NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 5:24 pm

New nonstop service to both cities starts on April 14th.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bare-fares-bring-heat-hot-150000164.html

Not sure if F9 was/is flying ATL-MSP, but they are ending ATL-MSY service in January. So it's nice to see NK jump in to keep an ULCC option in the market.
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jetblue1965
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 5:28 pm

These flights are much needed. DL has such a stranglehold on ATL-MSP it's not even funny.
 
usflyer msp
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:05 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 1):
DL has such a stranglehold on ATL-MSP it's not even funny.

Not really. Are F9 and WN not competition? DL will always have significantly more capacity and frequency since it is hub to hub...
 
NolaMD88fan
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:06 pm

This is the 8th destination new being served from MSY by NK. That ties them with DL and UA for second place in terms of destinations at the airport. WN serves the most destinations out of MSY. NK will also begin sharing gate C4 with AS when needed.

[Edited 2015-12-02 10:07:56]
 
jetblue1965
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:19 pm

Quoting usflyer msp (Reply 2):

Not really. Are F9 and WN not competition? DL will always have significantly more capacity and frequency since it is hub to hub...

DL commanded median one-way fare of $295 on that route while WN barely got around $180, some 39% lower. If that's considered "competition", it's not effective at all.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:31 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 4):
If that's considered "competition", it's not effective at all.

That's an anecdotal conclusion. What would the fare otherwise be if WN wasn't in there at all?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
afcjets
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:47 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 5):
That's an anecdotal conclusion. What would the fare otherwise be if WN wasn't in there at all?

Exactly, that is competition working. If they got the exact same median fare, one might even claim it's collusion.

[Edited 2015-12-02 11:00:51]
 
jetblue1965
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:49 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 5):
What would the fare otherwise be if WN wasn't in there at all?

If one could simulate such a hypothetical scenario we would be Head of Route Planning at a major airline already.

But there's only so much fare DL can push, even in a monopoly scenario, since all the elastic part of the demand curve will drop off, and could end up like many AC business-oriented transborder routes with sky high fares but super low volume. Then the 11x mainline may have to drop down to 11x E75s just to keep the frequency up.

And based on geography, I would argue ORD+MDW acts as an effective check on how much DL can really push prices (only 3.7% longer than the nonstop)
 
kcrwflyer
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:54 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 5):
That's an anecdotal conclusion. What would the fare otherwise be if WN wasn't in there at all?

Something in the neighborhood of...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l91ISfcuzDw
 
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enilria
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 7:01 pm

Quoting SunsetLimited (Thread starter):

Re F9

How does anybody drop an MSY route in JAN? Makes little sense.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 7:49 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 7):
If one could simulate such a hypothetical scenario we would be Head of Route Planning at a major airline already.

Indeed. Which is why, as said, that post was such an anecdotal statement.

The information is simply not there for you to effectively conclude that competition from WN is/is not having a sustainable effect on DL's fare, just based on the disparity between them.



Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
How does anybody drop an MSY route in JAN?

Best guess: when they're losing crap-tons of money on it, such that even Mardi Gras couldn't save it.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
jetblue1965
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 8:04 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 10):

Indeed. Which is why, as said, that post was such an anecdotal statement.

The information is simply not there for you to effectively conclude that competition from WN is/is not having a sustainable effect on DL's fare, just based on the disparity between them.

The disparity of actual fare data is already a very good proxy for how effective the competition is. You're just arguing for the sake of arguing, since you presented even less data than I did.

DL 11x daily
WN 3x
NK 1x

Despite so called "competition", DL continues to fare 64% higher. Please present your data to show why this competition is considered effective in your book.
 
ScottB
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:01 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 4):
DL commanded median one-way fare of $295 on that route while WN barely got around $180, some 39% lower. If that's considered "competition", it's not effective at all.

How is WN offering an average fare nearly 40% lower than DL's *not* considered "competition?" Competition doesn't mean that every player in a given market/market segment charges the same or even a similar price for its product. The smartphone market sees robust competition and yet Apple is able to command a significant premium over its competitors.

DL gets a higher fare due to superior schedule, frequent flyer lock-in, corporate contracts, premium cabin seat sales, etc. The win for consumers is that they do have another, more affordable option as long as they're willing to forego their SkyBolivares.

Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
How does anybody drop an MSY route in JAN? Makes little sense.

I don't get that either; if a route to MSY is going to make money it's going to be around Mardi Gras...

But I don't see ATL-MSY working well for NK, either, given less room to price under both WN & DL in a relatively short-haul market.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:13 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 11):
The disparity of actual fare data is already a very good proxy for how effective the competition is.

Sorry, that's just plain not true.


Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 11):
You're just arguing for the sake of arguing,

Um no, I'm arguing because what you said is false. See below:

Quoting ScottB (Reply 12):
How is WN offering an average fare nearly 40% lower than DL's *not* considered "competition?" Competition doesn't mean that every player in a given market/market segment charges the same or even a similar price for its product

      
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
jetblue1965
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:17 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 12):

How is WN offering an average fare nearly 40% lower than DL's *not* considered "competition?" Competition doesn't mean that every player in a given market/market segment charges the same or even a similar price for its product. The smartphone market sees robust competition and yet Apple is able to command a significant premium over its competitors.

The Apple analogy is incorrect. AAPL focuses on premium end but much lower volume than Android. On this route, DL is both the volume leader *and* the price leader.

*effective* competition would be more akin to WN faring at $180 and DL down to $230 or so - an observable premium for the schedule/FF advantage, but within a reasonable distance.

Here's one example of EFFECTIVE competition : DFW-LGA. AA fares at $339 while DL is not far behind at ~$280.
 
afcjets
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:54 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 14):
On this route, DL is both the volume leader *and* the price leader.


Which is probably the case in virtually every market from ATL.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:06 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 13):

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 11):
The disparity of actual fare data is already a very good proxy for how effective the competition is.

Sorry, that's just plain not true.


Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 11):
You're just arguing for the sake of arguing,

Um no, I'm arguing because what you said is false. See below:

Completely false again. You have presented absolutely ZERO DATA to showcase your point other than claiming mine is false. You present no facts nor statistics, only blind dismissals of points you don't agree with.

FACT : 78.6% of passengers on the route, on average, pay 64% fare premium.

Your fantasy notion is that any type of competition automatically means EFFECTIVE competition. That. is. plain. false.
 
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deltadawg
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:13 pm

Does anyone have data for NK's load factors on their existing ATL flights? I ask only because the times I have walked by any of their flights it always appears that they are not full flights, typically looks like half full at best. Seems like if they have high load factors on the existing flights then maybe they are making end roads in ATL but if not then it would signal that they are not tapping into DL and WN's customer base.

I think we all realize that NK is not going to be swaying the loyal DL SkyMiles business traveller anytime soon and perhaps not even the WN loyal flier but one would think they are doing well enough to expand more out of ATL. I personally have never flown NK but my parents have on ATL-LAS and when they got back they swore they would never fly them again and I would consider them the leisure traveller that would be the target customer at this point for NK.

Secondly, how much more can they expand with the limited gate space in ATL?
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Deltran757
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 10:42 pm

Quoting deltadawg (Reply 17):

Hmm.... To me, every time I work D South, their flights seems to me at least 80% full or more. The one thing I would like to note, they need another gate. I watch a NK flight sit on the taxiway for an hour, waiting for another NK flight push back so that they can use that gate.
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LAX772LR
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Wed Dec 02, 2015 11:23 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 16):
only blind dismissals of points you don't agree with

I don't agree with it because it isn't factual.  
As you've been told by multiple people at this point, not just me.

Keep grasping at straws, if you will, but:
there is not have enough information, one way or another, to claim what the status of DL's fares would be or the effectiveness of market competition-- simply from a spot disparity in fares.

There's no way around that.



Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 16):
Your fantasy notion is that any type of competition automatically means EFFECTIVE competition

No one here, other than you, has said anything of the sort.

I will say this though: define "effective competition" and please site the source, other than your own (completely irrelevant in terms of factual assessment) opinion as to what authoritatively decides what does or does not constitute such, and by using what criteria.

[Edited 2015-12-02 15:27:56]
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
MSPNWA
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 12:26 am

NK just keeps marching on at MSP. I don't mind having the alternative, but unfortunately other carriers usually ignore NK's prices. They are not a price setter.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 5):
That's an anecdotal conclusion. What would the fare otherwise be if WN wasn't in there at all?

Very high. I'd think MSP-DTW would be a good comparison. I don't have that latest stats with me on that route, but I'd imagine it's still high.

Quoting Deltran757 (Reply 18):
The one thing I would like to note, they need another gate. I watch a NK flight sit on the taxiway for an hour, waiting for another NK flight push back so that they can use that gate.

Same story at ORD. I don't mind flying NK when in the air, but the ground is another story. You can't count on a gate being available.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 16):

When in Econ school, we were taught how data alone is irrelevant. A person can make data prove any notion - even completely unrelated things - if they spin the right way. That's where the theory comes in. Data must fit the theory for relevancy. The theory says that WN is providing competition. How much can be subjectively debated, but objectively there's no debate that they are. And the data confirms that they are providing a significant amount. I would expect DL to still have much higher fares than WN on a fortress hub-to-fortress hub route. One big reason is that they don't have the fill the planes with O&D. They can pick the top cream and leave the scraps to WN.
 
ScottB
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 12:31 am

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 14):
Here's one example of EFFECTIVE competition : DFW-LGA. AA fares at $339 while DL is not far behind at ~$280.

Similar prices between competitors in a market don't necessarily indicate effective competition. They may also reflect an oligopoly where all players tacitly agree to charge similarly high prices to maintain high margins. There are three competitors flying non-stop between ORD and CVG and the low-fare airline's average fare of $297 (UA) is only 3% under the market average fare of $306. But I don't think that anyone can claim that average fares of nearly a dollar per mile are indicative of healthy competition.

And in the case of DFW-LGA, it's disingenuous to ignore the impact of both WN and VX flying between DAL & LGA.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 14):
The Apple analogy is incorrect. AAPL focuses on premium end but much lower volume than Android. On this route, DL is both the volume leader *and* the price leader.

Apple actually is the market share leader in the U.S. smartphone market. Android is a shared platform, not a manufacturer.
 
N1120A
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 12:41 am

The ATL-MSY plane appears to be turning to the MSY-LAX flight.
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deltadawg
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 1:50 am

Quoting Deltran757 (Reply 18):
Hmm.... To me, every time I work D South, their flights seems to me at least 80% full or more. The one thing I would like to note, they need another gate. I watch a NK flight sit on the taxiway for an hour, waiting for another NK flight push back so that they can use that gate.

I am not at ATL everyday, only when traveling but usually every week so you obviously have a better grasp on the loads. However, your comment about needing another gate begs to re-ask the question, "how much more can they grow without having another gate?
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northwestEWR
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 2:23 am

Quoting deltadawg (Reply 23):
how much more can they grow without having another gate?

They'd be fine if they had any operational reliability at all. The gate holds are due to delayed departures.
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flyguy89
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 3:07 am

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 14):
The Apple analogy is incorrect. AAPL focuses on premium end but much lower volume than Android. On this route, DL is both the volume leader *and* the price leader.

You're over-generalizing here and seem to be forgetting that DL has a hub on both ends, they're most certainly not carrying only local traffic on this route. Clearly with their suite of premium products, tiered FF program and schedule superiority they are focusing on the premium end of the ATL-MSP route. WN on the other hand does not have a hub on the MSP end and might probably carry a larger percentage of local passengers on each of their nonstop flights compared to DL.
 
usflyguy
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 4:56 am

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 14):
Here's one example of EFFECTIVE competition : DFW-LGA. AA fares at $339 while DL is not far behind at ~$280.

and you have WN and VX also flying the route out of DAL. WN puts far more pressure on AA on that route than DL does.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 14):
DL is both the volume leader *and* the price leader.

Huh-Hub flight, they should be volume and price leader since they should have a massive amount of frequent fliers on both ends.

MSP-SLC (991 mi) is a similar stage length as ATL-MSP (907 mi); on MSP-SLC, DL is charging $386.55 with no nonstop competition. See how that competition from WN lowers a fare? Almost $100 lower on ATL-MSP with the competition.

Feel free to check to table. https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/aviation-policy/table-6-domestic-airline-airfare-report-first-quarter-2015-excel
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 5:40 am

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 4):
DL commanded median one-way fare of $295 on that route while WN barely got around $180, some 39% lower. If that's considered "competition", it's not effective at all.

I think this all started with the comment that DL had a "stranglehold" on ATL-MSP. I guess I'm not clear how having a competitor with multiple daily flights and fares significantly lower equates with DL having a "stranglehold", but that's what the original premise was I believe.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 20):
I would expect DL to still have much higher fares than WN on a fortress hub-to-fortress hub route. One big reason is that they don't have the fill the planes with O&D. They can pick the top cream and leave the scraps to WN.

True.

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-Dave


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deltadawg
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 6:40 am

Quoting northwestEWR (Reply 24):
They'd be fine if they had any operational reliability at all. The gate holds are due to delayed departures.

Are you saying it is NK's operational inefficiencies or ATL's causing their delays? Just curious.
GO Dawgs, Sic' em, woof woof woof
 
Deltran757
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 9:17 am

Quoting deltadawg (Reply 28):

To my knowledge, it will be operational inefficiencies, with squeezing flights 20+ with only 2 gates and also sharing 1 additional gate with Frontier and Alaska. Before Delta took over much of the D south gates, NK and Spirit could easily pulled into D5, D6, and sometimes D8, and deplane their passengers and operate their departures from there. Now, its waiting time for their next available gate if D3 is not in use.
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xdlx
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 11:43 am

Quoting Deltran757 (Reply 18):

Price to pay to enter the market. Give them T1 as second gate......  
 
Woodreau
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 3:46 pm

Quoting xdlx (Reply 30):
Price to pay to enter the market. Give them T1 as second gate......  

They use E34 as their overflow third gate... kind of convenient if you ask me...  
Bonus animus sit, ab experientia. Quod salvatum fuerit de malis usu venit judicium.
 
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mariner
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 6:18 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 9):
Re F9

How does anybody drop an MSY route in JAN? Makes little sense.

Can't fly the route if they don't have the aircraft. Indigo is using this winter to radically alter the structure of the Frontier fleet. More than a dozen A319's are leaving, mostly in the first three months of 2016. Replacements - mostly A321's - are coming in but not at the same rate, so for the first three months of 2016, the fleet is "very tight" - as at UST.

http://staugustine.com/news/local-ne...-st-augustine-service#.VmCE-YQvS-8

"Westgate said a combination of factors made it logical to suspend service in 2016, including seasonal lags and a lack of available aircrafts next year.

In an email to The Record, Westgate wrote that Frontier Airlines is “very tight on aircraft” for the first quarter of 2016 — the company is renewing its fleet by replacing older and smaller aircrafts with bigger and newer planes.

People can still buy a limited range of tickets online, but Westgate said that in December, people will be able to purchase tickets for flights as late as August."


I suppose it's possible the Spirit move may inhibit the return of Frontier's ATL-MSY or MSP, but the two airlines have gone head to head other routes, so I don't know.

Still, I've posted this before in threads in which you have participated, but you ignore it so I won't bother anymore.  

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BravoEchoNov
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 7:09 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 32):
Can't fly the route if they don't have the aircraft. Indigo is using this winter to radically alter the structure of the Frontier fleet. More than a dozen A319's are leaving, mostly in the first three months of 2016.

It certainly will be an interesting year for Frontier Airlines. I wonder how many of the ATL routes will remain once their fleet is better in check.
 
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northwestEWR
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RE: NK Adds ATL-MSP/MSY

Thu Dec 03, 2015 11:13 pm

Quoting deltadawg (Reply 28):
Are you saying it is NK's operational inefficiencies or ATL's causing their delays? Just curious.

It's an NK problem. ATL is fine, though their contracted ground staff are certainly part of the issue.

Quoting Deltran757 (Reply 29):
To my knowledge, it will be operational inefficiencies, with squeezing flights 20+ with only 2 gates and also sharing 1 additional gate with Frontier and Alaska. Before Delta took over much of the D south gates, NK and Spirit could easily pulled into D5, D6, and sometimes D8, and deplane their passengers and operate their departures from there. Now, its waiting time for their next available gate if D3 is not in use.

Don't for a second think that wasn't deliberate on Delta's part. Yes, we needed the extra gates but it certainly helps that it puts a kink in F9/AS/NK's operations.
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