badgervor
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Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Thu Dec 03, 2015 5:22 pm

With Lockheed out of the commercial airline business and Boeing having bought McDonnell Douglas, do you think Boeing will ever face any serious competition from a US manufacturer? Would it be from an established company i.e. Cessna, Hawker, ect. or a completely new startup? Just curious...
 
MavyWavyATR
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Thu Dec 03, 2015 5:29 pm

Quoting badgervor (Thread starter):
Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Technically, they already have a US based competitor; Airbus with their new Mobile, AL facility.  
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Thu Dec 03, 2015 5:35 pm

Quoting badgervor (Thread starter):
do you think Boeing will ever face any serious competition from a US manufacturer?

Doubtful.

Even if we expand it to all of the Americas, Embraer and Bombardier are no real threat as it currently stands.

The beginning of the mainline market has shifted to north of 130 seats, with the sweet spot being at approximately 180 seats. They won't be making anything like that any time soon.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
tortugamon
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Thu Dec 03, 2015 6:32 pm

I think there will be a domestic competitor at some point. People wouldn't have thought that ULA would have a true competitor and they got one with SpaceX. There hasn't been a new car start up or even a new engine/motor produced domestically outside of the big 3 in decades and now we have Tesla and Elio and others like Faraday and Fisker-2 coming.

It will take a while before new technologies can be scaled to produce the size of aircraft that competes with Boeing can be produced but I certainly think it is likely. Many of the difficult technological know-how resides at the engine OEMs, Spirit, the Japan Heavies, etc. so its not like 100% of the aircraft would have to be designed/created/build/produced from scratch and with greater automation becoming a part of production even the FAL labor is as critical as it once was. BSC is proving that it can be done outside of Everett.

What the CSeries shows us though is that it would be tough sledding. Airlines have great trust and investments in Boeing/Airbus and a new comer's road would not be an easy one.

tortugamon
 
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vatveng
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Thu Dec 03, 2015 8:53 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 3):
There hasn't been a new car start up or even a new engine/motor produced domestically outside of the big 3 in decades and now we have Tesla and Elio and others like Faraday and Fisker-2 coming.

We didn't have any domestic startups, but the Asian automakers opened US assembly plants so any new startups are competing with a lot more than just the Big 3. Just like we now have Airbus in Alabama. We may get another aircraft manufacturer on-shore but it won't necessarily be a US company.
 
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JetBuddy
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Thu Dec 03, 2015 10:24 pm

I wouldn't rule out a US competitor. I mean, nobody knows what the future holds. In 20 years, Lockheed Martin might be getting back in the civilian airliner game. They've already stated they're looking for civilian business opportunities since military spending has been cut just about everywhere but Russia and China. LM deciding to offer the C-130J in a civilian version like its predecessors was backed by that statement.
 
kaitak744
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Thu Dec 03, 2015 11:26 pm

The only ones that can do it are Northrop Grumman and Lockheed.

It is a matter of time before they either go bust, or enter into the commercial market. They cannot rely on U.S. government spending for ever.
 
rigo
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Thu Dec 03, 2015 11:35 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 3):

Even if we expand it to all of the Americas, Embraer and Bombardier are no real threat as it currently stands.

The beginning of the mainline market has shifted to north of 130 seats, with the sweet spot being at approximately 180 seats. They won't be making anything like that any time soon.

It's not impossible. The E195 can already accomodate up to 124 pax and Embraer even contemplated a larger E195X. Another possibility is that Bombardier will eventually get their act together and if the CS keeps it promises, it may turn out to be a real competitor to the A320/B737 not just technically, but also commercially. Ultimately, with A and B locked into the Neo/MAX programs, there is a place for a fresh design.
 
Beatyair
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 12:17 am

No, never, can't see it happening. For someone, out of the blue starting up a commercial airline business and go up against the big two, no. Now if someone created a new super high speed, efficient mode of travel, maybe.
 
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ODwyerPW
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 12:31 am

Bombardier will never face another competitor in Canada
Airbus will never face another competitor in Europe
Embraer will never face another competitor in Brazil
Mitsubishi will never face another competitor in Japan
Boeing will never face another competitor in the USA

Won't comment on Russians and Chinese.

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rigo
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 3:12 am

Quoting ODwyerPW (Reply 9):
No, never, can't see it happening. For someone, out of the blue starting up a commercial airline business and go up against the big two, no. Now if someone created a new super high speed, efficient mode of travel, maybe.

Airbus started out of the blue and went against the big three of the time.
 
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Web500sjc
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 3:28 am

Quoting rigo (Reply 10):

No, Airbus was a conglomeration of the European manufacturers that were already in existence like Aerospatial, Hawker Siddeley and Sud Aviation.

Airbus started with aerie a requested product of a high capacity short haul twin engine airliner, as compared to the Longhail Trijets at Lockheed and Douglas (Douglas knocked Lockheed out) and 747. Airbus was not out of the blue, it was a merger of small manufactures to create a non American giant.
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JayBCNLON
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 2:16 pm

Quoting web500sjc (Reply 11):
No, Airbus was a conglomeration of the European manufacturers that were already in existence like Aerospatial, Hawker Siddeley and Sud Aviation.

Not quite .... I always wonder why the German contribution in the formation of Airbus is forgotten

"Airbus Industrie was formally established as a Groupement d'Intérêt Économique (Economic Interest Group or GIE) on 18 December 1970.[12] It had been formed by a government initiative between France, Germany and the UK that originated in 1967. Its initial shareholders were the French company Aérospatiale and the German company Deutsche Airbus, each owning a 50% share. "

Hawker Siddley was only kept as a subcontractor to build the wings of the A300 based on a GBP35m loan from the German government.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus

Quoting web500sjc (Reply 11):
Airbus was not out of the blue, it was a merger of small manufactures to create a non American giant.

Airbus was, indeed, not "out of the blue", as it bundled the historical aircraft manufacturing capabilities of the two main countries that pioneered flight, France and Germany - involving Aerospatial and Sud Aviation on the French and Messerschmidt, Dornier and German Fokker (amonth others) on the German side.

In this sense it was not the creation, but rather the RE-creation of a non-American giant as Europe regained its strength following a period of imbalance in favor of the USA created throughout and after WW2.

The successful evolution of Airbus was thus a consequence of political and commercial determination, as well as a technical history.

I do not believe that it is likely - nor necessary on a global scale - to have another US competitor for large commercial aircraft. Equally, I believe it will be a great challenge for Russia and China to pull off a similar success story, unless they combine their respective contributions, i.e. Russia's technical history of building airliners and China's political and commercial will, or there is some other tie-up, f.e. China and Brazil's Embraer.

So no, no US competitor.

[Edited 2015-12-04 06:23:36]

[Edited 2015-12-04 06:29:56]
 
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JetBuddy
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 4:23 pm

I do struggle to understand those who are saying there will be no US competitor.. ever. Indefinately. In my opinion that is an impossible statement. Things can change very fast, and nobody knows the future. I'd say it's more likely we'll see a US compeitor at some point, than not.
 
PPVRA
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 4:32 pm

Lockheed could partner with Embraer or BBD and pull it off IMO. The 737/320 market has plenty of room for a third player.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
2175301
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 4:50 pm

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 13):






I do struggle to understand those who are saying there will be no US competitor.. ever. Indefinately. In my opinion that is an impossible statement.

I agree with this. A competitor could develop in the future - and very long term I would even say that is a real possibility.

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 13):
Things can change very fast, and nobody knows the future.

Remove the "fast" part and I agree. Things can change - and ultimately do change. For one thing... Perhaps something else will replace much of commercial air travel in the future.

Have a great day,
 
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compensateme
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 4:52 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 3):
I think there will be a domestic competitor at some point.

It won't happen. It'll cost hundreds of billions to design & develop a new program and create the infrastructure necessary for manufacturing and support. You simply won't find investors willing to put up money for a program whose profitability is highly questionable. If you're in an embryonic market with infinite possibilities (Amazon), that's one thing. A mature market like commercial aviation is another.

At best, a US company could partner with a Chinese or Indian (many years from now) company to develop a third major competitor, but most of the design, manufacturing and support would be lead outside the US.

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 13):
I do struggle to understand those who are saying there will be no US competitor.. ever. Indefinately.

It won't happen within our lifetimes -- you're simply not going to find investors willing to put up hundreds of billions. Another competitor will likely emerge from an emerging market and further pressure the overall market, but that itself will take decades. Like I said, if anything, you could have a US firm design the plane in the US but most other functions outsourced to developing nations -- not a domestic competitor by the OP's standards.

[Edited 2015-12-04 09:47:23]
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bmacleod
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 5:38 pm

If you include future hyper-sonic suborbital flights, the answer will undoubtedly be YES.

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?...t&redirect=no#Hypersonic_transport

[Edited 2015-12-04 09:41:20]
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tortugamon
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 5:57 pm

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 13):
I do struggle to understand those who are saying there will be no US competitor.. ever. Indefinately. In my opinion that is an impossible statement. Things can change very fast, and nobody knows the future. I'd say it's more likely we'll see a US compeitor at some point, than not.

Agreed. Its amazing how people see the current landscape then kind of assume it will always stay like that. The way that commercial aviation is increasing and revenue potential increasing as well its ridiculous to assume that no one else is going to take notice and make an adjustment and try to carve a piece of the pie out for themselves. Forever is a very long time.

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 16):
It'll cost hundreds of billions to design & develop a new program and create the infrastructure necessary for manufacturing and support.

Lets be realistic, its not hundreds of billions. The A350 was brand new and it is coming in around $20 Billion. Boeing's new wing facility is $2 Billion. There are loads of third parties set up to do contract manufacturing. Final Assembly Lines aren't exactly rocket science.

20 years ago I bet if you asked people about commercial space projects I bet everyone would say naw, thats NASA territory. Now we have SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, Scaled Composites / Virgin Galactic, etc. Those programs took Billions and a few of them have far less revenue potential than a new large single aisle taking a share of the 120+/month production rates at $50 Million a pop.

I really don't see why a Lockheed/Northrop entity couldn't launch something if they saw an opportunity. Never say never.

tortugamon
 
Planesmart
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 9:08 pm

Who would be silly enough to fund and invest in such a venture, if we are referring to conventional commercial aviation?

If we are talking alternative off the ground travel, like space and time, if Boeing backs the wrong technology, anything is possible.

How many thought Sony would be toppled from the personal music business (Walkman)?
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 9:26 pm

The issue is that the industry is too mature at this point for a raw start-up to come in and make large airliners.

I could see one of the smaller manufacturers like Embraer or Bombardier trying to break into the 737/A320 market. There's enough demand for aircraft in that size range to justify such a program. By contrast, for widebodies, there isn't enough demand to split the market three ways with three development programs given the enormous costs of modern programs. Even with 100 years of experience, Boeing managed to totally stuff up the 787 program and it will probably never turn a net profit. Similarly, Airbus totally fumbled the A380 program and that will also probably work out to be a net loss.

So the idea that a company that has never built a widebody before like Embraer could come in and efficiently slap one together and not lose their shorts in the process beggars belief.

More likely, a new technology or combination thereof (hyperloop?) will come along and make airliners at least partially obsolete, although I think that air travel will never truly disappear as long as human civilization persists, much as trains and ships will probably never disappear. The only thing that would make all of that irrelevant is something like teleportation but I doubt anyone alive today will ever live to see that.
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par13del
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:10 pm

Quoting kaitak744 (Reply 6):
It is a matter of time before they either go bust, or enter into the commercial market. They cannot rely on U.S. government spending for ever.

Ok, in A.Net fashion you will have to explain this one, we all know that Boeing only survives against Airbus because of US Government subsidies, why would LM and NG be any different, surely the US Government can support all three?
 
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JetBuddy
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:13 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 20):
The issue is that the industry is too mature at this point for a raw start-up to come in and make large airliners.

Well, you definately have a point. But today's airliners are made by hundreds or thousands of subcontractors. A new competitor would have to spend on design, testing and final assembly.. but they would not have to design and manufacture all the parts themselves. And there are companies in the US today with enormous amounts of brainpower, experience with space and aviation, solid income and large financial backing. Lockheed Martin and Northrop are two examples. Lockheed Martin in particular are looking for civilian business opportunities.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 18):

tortugamon

Agreed with everything you said. ^
 
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bikerthai
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:50 pm

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 17):
If you include future hyper-sonic suborbital flights, the answer will undoubtedly be YES.

  

This is where the start up may have the advantage. They are willing to take the risk and people are willing to take a risk for a ride. Once the the technology is proven, these start-up will require capital of large company to scale up the operation.

Most likely companies like Boeing, LM or Airbus would foot the bill and buy out the start-up.

Virgin Galactic may have a chance to be a future challenger. Maybe not in the current form but maybe the name may last.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
rigo
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Fri Dec 04, 2015 11:34 pm

Quoting web500sjc (Reply 11):
No, Airbus was a conglomeration of the European manufacturers that were already in existence like Aerospatial, Hawker Siddeley and Sud Aviation.

Airbus started with aerie a requested product of a high capacity short haul twin engine airliner, as compared to the Longhail Trijets at Lockheed and Douglas (Douglas knocked Lockheed out) and 747. Airbus was not out of the blue, it was a merger of small manufactures to create a non American giant.

Yes but no. Sure, the companies that formed Airbus had a distinguished track record as airliner builders (the Caravelle, the One-Eleven, the F27) but outside of Europe, particularly on the US market, the consortium was nevertheless as good as a startup. The A300 was a novel and unproven concept at the time and despite its economic benefits, it initially struggled to sell against Lockeed's and MDD's trijets.

So to the extent the analogy holds, I don't see why we should rule out the idea that Embraer, with its experience and commercial success in the small passenger jet market, may try to expand into the 130-200 pax category.
 
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einsteinboricua
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:09 am

Quoting web500sjc (Reply 11):
No, Airbus was a conglomeration of the European manufacturers that were already in existence like Aerospatial, Hawker Siddeley and Sud Aviation.

Let's not forget Spain's CASA which also joined the group before they launched the A300.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Sat Dec 05, 2015 6:01 pm

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 22):
And there are companies in the US today with enormous amounts of brainpower, experience with space and aviation, solid income and large financial backing. Lockheed Martin and Northrop are two examples. Lockheed Martin in particular are looking for civilian business opportunities.

You think LM might get back into the airliner business?

That would be pretty cool, but not a start-up.

It's just like there are no new major auto manufacturers except for the one exception that proves the rule: Tesla. Tesla is the car that is a disruptive technology and doesn't run on an internal combustion engine.

Similarly, there won't be a new major personal computer manufacturer. That market got filled.

If Boeing ever faces competition for civil air transport, it will be some totally new sort of air transport technology that isn't an airliner.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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compensateme
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Sat Dec 05, 2015 8:04 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 26):
You think LM might get back into the airliner business?

That would be pretty cool, but not a start-up

LM isn't going to get back into the commercial airline business. A new aircraft would cost tens of billions to design (and contrary to some of the above suggestions, suppliers balked at sharing significant risks in the 787 & 350 programs) -- and where is the market? A new widebody would be years behind the 787 & 350 programs (and thus years behind in marketing, sales & support) and not likely to generate significant cost savings. LM simply isn't going to sell enough to come anywhere close to a profit. Boeing & Airbus will probably focus on continuous improvement rather than launching a new widebody in the next few decades, given the overruns of the 787 & 350 programs.

Look what it took to break Windows monopoly: not only a transition to a new platform, but Google's willingness to lose money to make Android satisfactory enough for users to dump traditional platforms.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
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PatrickZ80
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RE: Will Boeing Ever Face US Competition

Sat Dec 05, 2015 8:15 pm

Quoting ODwyerPW (Reply 9):
Airbus will never face another competitor in Europe

Maybe not anymore, but they did for quite some time. Fokker was just as European as Airbus and when Airbus was founded Fokker had been around for a while. If Fokker hadn't gone bankrupt it would still have been a serious competitor.

I think on the 'heavies' there won't be any competition. That's just Boeing and Airbus, no others are able to build airliners that big. But on the smaller sizes (737/A320) there might be.

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