JAL Eyes New US Routes

DolphinAir747 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 5:01 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 45):

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 19):
ANC

Im actually shocked not one Asian carrier can make ANC work a couple times a week year round.

Jl used to operate winter charters to ANC and FAI if I'm not mistaken, is that still the case?

RDUDDJI · Fri Dec 04, 2015 5:02 pm

Quoting Max752 (Reply 34):
RDU only has LHR because its subsidized. If it lost its subsidies I'd give the route a few months before AA cut the cord.

False. RDULHR has never had subsidies. In the late 90s it did have a rev guarantee, but that expired well over a decade ago.

MAH4546 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 5:42 pm

Quoting JetBlueCLT (Reply 36):
CLT and PHL are a good bet with the 787.

Not with JAL's 787 configuration. No way.

CLTNRT is probably a long way off regardless.

LAXdude1023 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 5:52 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 52):
Not with JAL's 787 configuration. No way.

CLTNRT is probably a long way off regardless.

I wouldnt rule out PHL-NRT though. It may have a bit of a premium configuration, but between AA and JL thats a route that should get strong consideration.

superjeff · Fri Dec 04, 2015 5:56 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 20):
The article mentions that they are looking for US-based partner airlines to facilitate growth. To me that means B6, first, then maybe AS and VX. But if you look at their focus cities/hubs JAL already flies to LAX, SFO, BOS, and JFK. That leaves SEA (with AS partnership) and MCO, FLL with B6 partnership.

I think with the Oneworld connection, and the codesharing that goes with it, an AS passenger could book a JL codeshare as an AA flight and get AS MVP miles, which would potentially work to cement AS passengers to a JL service out of SEA.

kgaiflyer · Fri Dec 04, 2015 6:01 pm

Quoting FLIHGH (Reply 47):
By launching NRT-IAD, they'd basically be for O&D passengers in the US as American is near nonexistant at IAD. There's practically nowhere else AA doesn't fly to from their DCA hub that pax couldn't get to from NYC.

Most readers *don't* get that.

DCA and IAD have *completely different* passenger loyalties. The two airports do not work together - and if anything - work against each other. A strong OW loyalty base at DCA has nothing to do with IAD which is a *Alliance stronghold.

BeachBoy · Fri Dec 04, 2015 6:08 pm

KOA

According to the CEO of HA, HNL-TYO is the second largest international market from the US after NYC-LON. People underappreciate the traffic flow between Hawaii and Japan.

USAirALB · Fri Dec 04, 2015 6:13 pm

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 55):

Which is why in the future I wouldn't rule out AA starting a few long haul flights like LHR from IAD. NRT, probably not but JAL should be able to make the flight work. OW loyal fliers in DC obviously fly long haul as well and they would probably prefer to keep their loyalty to OW before switching to ANA and UA. I hear ANAs service is fantastic though.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 52):

So how is RDU-NRT a few years down the road but CLT is a long way away, given you combine CLT's O/D numbers with AA feed you would no doubt be able to feed a NRT flight before RDU.

airbazar · Fri Dec 04, 2015 6:26 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 45):

Big market, but heavy competition

2 daily flights (1xDL + 1xNH ) at SEA, is hardly heavy competition, especially if they can feed off of AS.

jetblue1965 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 6:28 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 58):
2 daily flights (1xDL + 1xNH ) at SEA, is hardly heavy competition, especially if they can feed off of AS.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 45):

Dont see it. IAD-NRT is large and ATL-NRT is sizable too, but they already have ample service.

In his book, 1x daily ATL-NRT is considered "ample service" apparently Between 2 metros of nearly 40 million combined population.

FLIHGH · Fri Dec 04, 2015 6:35 pm

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 55):

I'm a pilot who grew up living next to Dulles. Maybe I'm a rare breed

The metro connecting the two will eventually help, but unless UA crazily draws back a ton of longhaul flights, I don't see AA filling the void.

Quoting USAirALB (Reply 57):

There are already 3 carriers flying to LHR from IAD, with capacity very high (BA has their 380 on the route now). I don't see AA using one of their slots to be the 4th carrier on a route.

AABB777 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 6:39 pm

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 55):
DCA and IAD have *completely different* passenger loyalties. The two airports do not work together - and if anything - work against each other. A strong OW loyalty base at DCA has nothing to do with IAD which is a *Alliance stronghold.

DCA is a oneworld stronghold, and IAD has long been a Star Alliance stronghold. But, that can certainly change as UA right-sizes/downsizes their IAD operations and (if) AA/oneworld expands their offerings from IAD. JL launching IAD-NRT would certainly allow loyal AA customers to use BA when flying TATL and JL when going TPAC. Additionally, QR offers connectivity to the Middle East and ISC. That, combined with the domestic AA hub at DCA, would be a good amount of coverage - domestically and internationally - for loyal WAS-based AA frequent fliers.

commavia · Fri Dec 04, 2015 6:43 pm

Quoting superjeff (Reply 54):
an AS passenger could book a JL codeshare as an AA flight and get AS MVP miles, which would potentially work to cement AS passengers to a JL service out of SEA.

The AA linkage can only help, as AA and Alaska already have a tight bilateral commercial relationship as it is, despite the fact that Alaska isn't a oneworld airline.

Quoting kgaiflyer (Reply 55):
DCA and IAD have *completely different* passenger loyalties. The two airports do not work together - and if anything - work against each other. A strong OW loyalty base at DCA has nothing to do with IAD which is a *Alliance stronghold.

I completely disagree. For at least some (I would wager many) WAS-area FFs, there absolutely is a relationship between booking decisions made at DCA for domestic and IAD for transcon/longhaul flying. I myself know several such people (very frequent WAS metro flyers) who, for example, fly primarily domestically and prioritize DCA and AA, and thus when flying to Europe almost always take BA out of IAD instead of United.

Is this phenomenon enough to support a JAL 787 IAD-NRT? I'm not sure. But I don't think it's entirely unthinkable.

Quoting FLIHGH (Reply 60):
unless UA crazily draws back a ton of longhaul flights, I don't see AA filling the void.

I agree that AA isn't going to be adding dozens and dozens of flights out of IAD. But I continue to believe that - as the other poster mentioned - there could be potential for some additional, incremental AA and/or oneworld longhaul capacity out of IAD now given what a strong brand presence/penetration AA has in the WAS metro. Again - enough to justify a JAL 787 to NRT? Not sure. But down the road at some point? Maybe.

Quoting FLIHGH (Reply 60):
There are already 3 carriers flying to LHR from IAD, with capacity very high (BA has their 380 on the route now). I don't see AA using one of their slots to be the 4th carrier on a route.

AA would effectively be the third carrier, not the fourth, as AA and BA operate as a single competitive entity across the Atlantic. Any hypothetical additional frequency/capacity AA added into the IAD-LHR market would be under the auspices of the AA/BA JV that covers that route.

TC957 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 6:51 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 33):
is that at the moment there just isn't much in the way of Asia-Latin America connectivity that MIA offers that DFW doesn't already cover, or at least not enough to justify such an incredibly long flight. While there's no question that MIA would offer 1-stop connectivity between NRT and a vast array of additional

Where the US is missing out on with Asia - Lat Am connections is the hassle of US immigration, hence why the ME3 especially EK have got that market sown up. If the US authorities would make connecting international flights a more pleasant experience for travellers I'm sure we'd soon see JL in MIA feeding into AA's Lat Am network.

commavia · Fri Dec 04, 2015 6:54 pm

Quoting TC957 (Reply 63):
Where the US is missing out on with Asia - Lat Am connections is the hassle of US immigration, hence why the ME3 especially EK have got that market sown up.

Except that this isn't true.

Having just flown DFW-South America and back in the last few weeks, I can attest that there are absolutely lots of connections to/from Asia on these flights. Contrary to popular belief, U.S. carriers - and perhaps AA most prominently of all - still cater to lots of Asia-Latin America connections, and the ME3 most definitely do not "have ... that market sown up."

FLIHGH · Fri Dec 04, 2015 6:54 pm

Quoting AABB777 (Reply 61):

IAD hasn't seen many cuts lately (other than the Middle East flight disappearing), and UA has two new international adds for next summer. Are they smaller than they were pre CO? Yes, but, at least in the near-medium term future, I don't see another US carrier coming in with major international flights. IAD has been on a small roll with international carriers, so in that aspect, one world could get a boost.

Quoting commavia (Reply 62):

For so many WAS travelers, though, they don't even have that choice of carrier; its whoever the gov has the contract for. For those that do have the freedom, I don't entirely disagree with you. Lately more and more I have been utilizing DCA more than IAD (despite living directly next to IAD), but that's been more of me following B6 and WN than anything else. As the for BA/AA to LHR, I just don't see the point of having AA add a flight, at the expense of BA or not.

FLIHGH · Fri Dec 04, 2015 6:57 pm

Quoting TC957 (Reply 63):

Quoting commavia (Reply 64):

I agree, Emirates has what, 3 current SA/CA destinations? With I believe 2 more coming?

commavia · Fri Dec 04, 2015 6:58 pm

Quoting FLIHGH (Reply 65):
For so many WAS travelers, though, they don't even have that choice of carrier; its whoever the gov has the contract for. For those that do have the freedom, I don't entirely disagree with you.

There are some WAS travelers who must travel on designated flights, but also plenty of WAS area travelers - including corporate customers and contractors - who have far more flexibility in their travel choices.

Quoting FLIHGH (Reply 65):
As the for BA/AA to LHR, I just don't see the point of having AA add a flight, at the expense of BA or not.

There may be a point, there may not be, but I think the larger point is that in general given that AA now offers an extremely credible network offering for WAS-area FFs who are primarily domestic flyers but also occasional transcon/longhaul flyers, it may make sense over time for AA/oneworld to strengthen the latter a bit.

MAH4546 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:05 pm

Quoting TC957 (Reply 63):
If the US authorities would make connecting international flights a more pleasant experience for travellers I'm sure we'd soon see JL in MIA feeding into AA's Lat Am network.

At MIA you no longer have to reclaim bags on international-to-international when flying AA.

Quoting commavia (Reply 64):

Quoting TC957 (Reply 63):
Where the US is missing out on with Asia - Lat Am connections is the hassle of US immigration, hence why the ME3 especially EK have got that market sown up.

Except that this isn't true.

Having just flown DFW-South America and back in the last few weeks, I can attest that there are absolutely lots of connections to/from Asia on these flights. Contrary to popular belief, U.S. carriers - and perhaps AA most prominently of all - still cater to lots of Asia-Latin America connections, and the ME3 most definitely do not "have ... that market sown up."

Exactly, but you'll never convince people otherwise. People insist that it South Americans don't connect in the States to get to Asia. But they do. In huge numbers. Every. Single. Day.

jetblue1965 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:07 pm

Regarding IAD-NRT, I would expect NH to pre-emptively launch a second daily on NRT-IAD if they knew JL wants to jump in. Based on their other patterns, it would depart IAD early evening like 5pm ish, arrive NRT 8-9pm.

So the choice would be 3x NH/UA 777 vs. 1x JL 788.

jmc1975 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:10 pm

There are a lot of far-fetched pie-in-the-sky route ideas on this thread. But, doesn't anyone else think it's strange that NRT-PHX hasn't even been mentioned? It's a OW hub and perhaps the largest metro area in the US after MIA & PHL without any nonstop to Asia. Surely a daily 788 wouldn't be terribly unreasonable.

[Edited 2015-12-04 11:14:44]

PHX Flyer · Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:34 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 8):

PHL, RDU, STL, IAD, ATL, LAS all seem like good choices to me...

Quoting NH203 (Reply 10):
JAL serves the large west coast and east coast cities well. But it lacks contact with AA's new Usairways hubs, Charlotte and Philadelphia.

It's amazing how the 10th largest US airport and third New American hub is always ignored in these discussions ... almost like a conspiracy ...

[Edited 2015-12-04 11:34:50]

jetblue1965 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:44 pm

Quoting PHX+Flyer" class="quote" target="_blank">PHX Flyer (Reply 71):

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 8):

PHL, RDU, STL, IAD, ATL, LAS all seem like good choices to me...

It's a mis-quote. I didn't say that. I was arguing against STL actually.

Quoting PHX+Flyer" class="quote" target="_blank">PHX Flyer (Reply 71):
t's amazing how the 10th largest US airport and third New American hub is always ignored in these discussions ... almost like a conspiracy ...

It's not a conspiracy. Exactly what PHX-Asia PDEW is there that can't already be well handled by services from JL/AA services out of DFW LAX and even SFO ?

LAXdude1023 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:47 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 58):
2 daily flights (1xDL + 1xNH ) at SEA, is hardly heavy competition, especially if they can feed off of AS.

Thats my bad. I forgot UA dropped SEA-NRT.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 59):
In his book, 1x daily ATL-NRT is considered "ample service" apparently Between 2 metros of nearly 40 million combined population.

Dont speak for me, I can do that in my own.

SEA-NRT and ATL-NRT are not comparable. The former is quite a bit larger than the later. With no hubs connecting the two, a daily flight from ATL to NRT (or maybe 10x weekly) from DL is plenty. Thats about what DFW-NRT would look like if AA and JL werent partners. Same for UA/NH and IAH.

LAX772LR · Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:49 pm

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 7):
RDU, STL

Quoting HeeseokKoo (Reply 11):
I read somewhere a.net that JL cannot launch new routes, but only can resume until 2017 or so.

That can't be accurate.

Japan and USA have open skies, and there's no FAA/ICAO issue with either side right now... so what could possibly stop them from launching new routes vs resumptions?

Quoting Max752 (Reply 26):
-PDX
-SMF
-STL
-AUS
-RDU

I'd say only the first of those has any chance of seeing JL, and even then, not much of one.
A dense 767/A330 on DL probably caters better to PDX's Japanese market than a high-premium JL aircraft.

Quoting PHX Flyer (Reply 71):
It's amazing how the 10th largest US airport and third New American hub is always ignored in these discussions

How's that amazing? What's really worth paying attention *to*? ...its international market is a fraction of that of the other hubs.

panam330 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:55 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 72):
It's not a conspiracy. Exactly what PHX-Asia PDEW is there that can't already be well handled by services from JL/AA services out of DFW LAX and even SFO ?

Using that argument, why are airlines fragmenting any service at all? Why does AUS-LHR exist when it can be well handled through DFW, IAH, or any other hub it overflies? Why does SLC-NRT exist when its traffic can easily be handled over SFO/LAX/PDX/SEA? They do it to stimulate traffic and make more money.
Now, to agree with you to a point - if the airlines find that there are adequate, profitable amounts of traffic between PHX-NRT, we will see it added. I would love to see it happen, and only time will tell if JL or AA think it's feasible with one of their 787s.

PHX Flyer · Fri Dec 04, 2015 7:57 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 74):
its international market is a fraction of that of the other hubs.

Substantially more than PDX, STL, AUS or RDU.

jetblue1965 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:00 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 73):
Dont speak for me, I can do that in my own.

I didn't speak for you. What I quoted were your OWN exact words.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 73):

SEA-NRT and ATL-NRT are not comparable. The former is quite a bit larger than the later.

You just self-contradicted. You're now saying SEA is "quite a bit larger", but apparently just 2x daily on 2 competitors with no sign of ongoing fare war or overcapacity is what you call "heavy competition" (again, you OWN words).

Your entire argument boils down to the same old talking points - if JL can't obtain a monopoly or it's not an oneworld hub, then don't bother.

LAXdude1023 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:14 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 77):
You just self-contradicted. You're now saying SEA is "quite a bit larger", but apparently just 2x daily on 2 competitors with no sign of ongoing fare war or overcapacity is what you call "heavy competition" (again, you OWN words).

Go re-read my pervious post:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 73):
Quoting airbazar (Reply 58):
2 daily flights (1xDL + 1xNH ) at SEA, is hardly heavy competition, especially if they can feed off of AS.

Thats my bad. I forgot UA dropped SEA-NRT.

MAH4546 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:47 pm

Quoting PHX+Flyer" class="quote" target="_blank">PHX Flyer (Reply 76):
Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 74):
its international market is a fraction of that of the other hubs.

Substantially more than PDX, STL, AUS or RDU.

I'm not sure why STL, AUS and especially RDU are in this discussion, that's laughable, but PDX-Asia is substantially larger than PHX-Asia.

PHX-Asia is one of the largest U.S.-Asia markets without a non-stop, but it's still less than half the size of Orlando, Philadelphia or Miami to Asia.

LAX772LR · Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:01 pm

Quoting PHX+Flyer" class="quote" target="_blank">PHX Flyer (Reply 76):
Substantially more than PDX, STL, AUS or RDU.

Perhaps, though one sure wouldn't know it by looking at how airlines respond to such alleged demand: with the exception of STL, the remaining three markets have multiple intercontinental destinations served by multiple airlines-- PHX can't even muster that.

airbazar · Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:16 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 59):

In his book, 1x daily ATL-NRT is considered "ample service" apparently Between 2 metros of nearly 40 million combined population.

What does his book say about current O&D numbers ATL-NRT vs. SEA-NRT?

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 68):
At MIA you no longer have to reclaim bags on international-to-international when flying AA.

The problem from a passenger point of view is not the baggage re-check. That is annoying at worst. The problem is obtaining a visa and waiting to clear immigration.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 68):

Exactly, but you'll never convince people otherwise. People insist that it South Americans don't connect in the States to get to Asia. But they do. In huge numbers. Every. Single. Day.

Imagine how many more pax there would be if it wasn't for the ridiculous rule of having to obtain an entry visa, clear immigration, and in most places re-check your bag.
I second the IAH comment. When I flew through there it was obvious a lot of people were doing intl-intl transfers. So much so that IAH has dedicated immigration processing stations for those passengers.

MAH4546 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:32 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 81):
Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 68):
At MIA you no longer have to reclaim bags on international-to-international when flying AA.

The problem from a passenger point of view is not the baggage re-check. That is annoying at worst. The problem is obtaining a visa and waiting to clear immigration.

It's an exaggerated problem. If you live in South and Central America and are flying long-haul, chances are you are of upper middle/upper class. Having a multi-year U.S. visa is often just as common as having a passport, especially in Central America, where the wealthy rely on America for healthcare and consumer goods.

Cubsrule · Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:47 pm

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 82):
It's an exaggerated problem. If you live in South and Central America and are flying long-haul, chances are you are of upper middle/upper class. Having a multi-year U.S. visa is often just as common as having a passport, especially in Central America, where the wealthy rely on America for healthcare and consumer goods.

And while MIA has had problems with lines at immigration, DFW generally does not.

DariusBieber · Fri Dec 04, 2015 11:06 pm

Quoting Max752 (Reply 34):
What's the love affair with AUS these days? Austin's metro isn't gigantic, their economy's doing well but it's not massive, and TPAC to AUS is just as far fetched as TPAC to STL.

RDU only has LHR because its subsidized. If it lost its subsidies I'd give the route a few months before AA cut the cord.

Realistically, LAS, PHL, or something similar.

-Max

I totally agree. AUS is nothing special and would never be able to handle cross Pacific traffic.

UA735WL · Fri Dec 04, 2015 11:29 pm

Quoting DariusBieber (Reply 84):
I totally agree. AUS is nothing special and would never be able to handle cross Pacific traffic.

Be careful about using absolutes like "never". The amount of tech traffic to Asia from AUS is more than you would expect; Samsung is opening a *massive* chip manufacturing facility in Austin (IIRC to manufacture chips for Apple, ironically enough) , not to mention the presence of Dell and other companies who all manufacture most of their components in Asia. There's also the possibility of market stimulation too...IIRC one article said that AUS-LHR "reinvigorated" the TX-UK cargo market.

I'd say that (because of these reasons) Asia might even make more sense than Europe- which already has one successful route from AUS, with another starting in 2016. I will admit that I don't think JL has much of a chance....I'd expect KE to be the first Asian carrier at AUS , if any.

Cheers,

Jonas

[Edited 2015-12-04 15:32:29]

flyDTW1992 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 11:47 pm

I'm amazed at how little mention of DTW has been made in the thread so far. Then again it could just be wishful thinking clouding my logic.

STT757 · Fri Dec 04, 2015 11:53 pm

EWR could be a possibility, the City of Newark is home to Panasonic's North American Headquarters. Also strong Japanese enclaves in Bergen County, particularly Edgewater where there's a nice Japanese shopping Center Mitsuwa.

http://www.mitsuwa.com/

commavia · Fri Dec 04, 2015 11:59 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 74):
That can't be accurate.

Japan and USA have open skies, and there's no FAA/ICAO issue with either side right now... so what could possibly stop them from launching new routes vs resumptions?

It can be, and apparently is, accurate.

Perhaps someone more knowledgeable on the details can comment, but as was alluded to in a recent CAPA article, JAL apparently has had strictures placed on its international expansion as part of its Japanese-government-supported bankruptcy restructuring, under the rationale that, "JAL was made stronger and enjoyed tax breaks." As such, according to CAPA, through at least 2017 JAL is limited in its ability to add new international routes and ANA even seems to have some form of veto over JAL's longhaul expansion.

LAX772LR · Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:01 am

Quoting UA735WL (Reply 85):
The amount of tech traffic to Asia from AUS is more than you would expect; Samsung is opening a *massive* chip manufacturing facility in Austin (IIRC to manufacture chips for Apple, ironically enough) , not to mention the presence of Dell and other companies who all manufacture most of their components in Asia.

To be fair, that's far more likely to produce a 1xWk service by an Asian freighter, than scheduled service by an Asian pax carrier.

thomasphoto60 · Sat Dec 05, 2015 2:55 am

Quoting BayAreaFlyer (Reply 4):
IAH-NRT

Not holding my breath, given Houston's economy and the fact the UA and NH both running dailies, don't see it.

VAM8789 · Sat Dec 05, 2015 3:20 am

Are there any significant ties between North Carolina and Asia? I cannot imagine too many Asians choose North Carolina as a stop when they visit the United States.

Some others were teasing an upcoming ULH route from MIA, could this be it? NRT-MIA on JL? I am still surprised they have not launched it yet. They opted to start both SAN and BOS before MIA and that's surprising.

Miami · Sat Dec 05, 2015 3:30 am

Quoting VAM8789 (Reply 91):
Some others were teasing an upcoming ULH route from MIA, could this be it? NRT-MIA on JL?

Unfortunately the announcement for that has been delayed due to issues at the airline.

And no, it's not JAL.

JAL and MIA continue to have ongoing discussions.

LAXdude1023 · Sat Dec 05, 2015 3:59 am

Quoting airbazar (Reply 81):
What does his book say about current O&D numbers ATL-NRT vs. SEA-NRT?

That SEA-NRT is almost 4x larger than ATL-NRT. Thats not my book but the official book.

kevin · Sat Dec 05, 2015 5:43 am

What about YYZ? YVR is served by both JL and NH, while YYZ only has AC serving Japan.

LAX772LR · Sat Dec 05, 2015 8:21 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 88):
As such, according to CAPA, through at least 2017 JAL is limited in its ability to add new international routes and ANA even seems to have some form of veto over JAL's longhaul expansion.

Can't be all THAT restrictive, as they've launched two exclusive routes (BOS and SAN) relatively recently.

Why would NH just cede those markets, if they held some type of veto at no apparent/mentioned cost?
Still seems rather tough to believe, at least as presented in that article.

....though if true, it would go a long way toward explaining why JL/AA still haven't launched routes like MIA/PHL/etc to TYO yet.

aviationaware · Sat Dec 05, 2015 8:59 am

AUS, PHL and LAS are my guesses too. In no particular order. Oh, and of course the obligatory a-net MIA

jfk777 · Sun Dec 06, 2015 1:34 pm

Quoting VAM8789 (Reply 91):
They opted to start both SAN and BOS before MIA and that's surprising.

San Diego and Boston are closer to NRT then Miami by at least 1,000 miles( Boston) and over 2,000 miles ( San Diego). The cost of the last extra 1,000 miles to MIA is considerable you have to carry that fuel all the way from Tokyo. The 787-9 will finally make a Miami to Tokyo flight viable, now its AA turn to step up and do it.

IADCA · Sun Dec 06, 2015 3:52 pm

Quoting kevin (Reply 94):
What about YYZ? YVR is served by both JL and NH, while YYZ only has AC serving Japan.

Thread's about US routes. While I'd personally be delighted to move the border north a few ticks and bring in both YYZ and YVR, I doubt the folks up there would be so enamored of the change.

Quoting BeachBoy (Reply 56):
KOA

KOA is supposedly looking hard for a resumption of Japan service. Of course, the Big Island is a much, much different market than Oahu or Maui.

Quoting AABB777 (Reply 31):
This would compliment BA's IAD-LHR and QR's IAD-DOH service and offer WAS-based FFs more international travel options from IAD.

It would help, but UA and its Star partners have a substantial TATL nonstop network out of IAD that requires connections on BA. Even SkyTeam is significantly further along on TATL. That's a significant value issue for premium fliers. Yes, London is the biggest international destination out of IAD, but all 3 alliances have it covered. And the DOH service is nice for the Middle East and India, but even after the UA cuts it's still up against TK (Star shows up again), EK, and EY. And there's also Latin America, which is also covered decently by Star, and Africa (less so, but more than others).

S75752 · Sun Dec 06, 2015 6:18 pm

Quoting behramjee (Reply 3):
4 weekly NRT-MIA nonstop on a B789 is 14 hours 30 minutes hence a no brainer in my book as there is good point to point demand to begin with i.e. 23,000 pax in 2014 + transfer traffic bound to Asia + onward AA code share to Southeast USA + Latin America + Caribbean.

JL could probably do it with a 788, since they have the lower density configuration. So, I think that detail lowers the risk of the route and ups the chances signifcantly.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 45):

Im actually shocked not one Asian carrier can make ANC work a couple times a week year round.

My bet is on it being either B6 or DL who ends up doing that, in the form of a 752/321LR service from JFK to ANC, and a continuation for ANC to NRT.

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