Scipio
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Future Of Antonov

Sun Dec 06, 2015 5:53 pm

The Ukraine crisis has raised big question marks over the future of Antonov. Plans considered in Yanukovych times for Russia and Ukraine to launch serial production of the An-70 for the Russian Air Force and re-start An-124 production (of a modernized version) are now dead.

Instead, Antonov is now seeking to fully cut its ties with Russia.

There was a thread on a.net last year on the hard times at Antonov:

Hard Times At Antonov (by OldAeroGuy Oct 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

A number of things have changed since then.

- Antonov was transferred to Ukroboronprom, Ukraine’s state-owned defense conglomerate. It is now an Ukroboronprom subsidiary, along with many other Ukrainian aerospace-related firms. Among these new sister companies are the Ivchenko-Progress design bureau and the Kharkiv State Aircraft Manufacturing Company.

- Management is being changed. In June, Dmitro Kiva was relieved of his duties as President of the company, but he stays on as General Constructor / Chief Designer. (Now ex-) Member of Parliament Mykhaylo Hvozdov was appointed acting President. Ukroboronprom issued a competition for a new President, but failed to find a suitable candidate. A few days ago, it launched a new competition. Unfortunately, only Ukrainian citizens are eligible…
Ad (in Ukrainian): http://www.ukroboronprom.com.ua/advert/1/174

- Under orders of Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers, Antonov is pulling out of OAK-Antonov, its 50-50 joint-venture with Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC, or OAK in Russian).
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/290126.html

- Also under orders of the Cabinet of Ministers, Antonov is seeking to fully end its dependence on Russian inputs. As part of these efforts, in 2016 it will use one of its An-124’s as a test-bed that will be equipped with Ukrainian-produced avionics, breaks and tires instead of the original Russian ones.
http://joinfo.ua/politic/1136107_Ukr...ti---ptitsi-gordie-GP-Antonov.html

- In the context of the Russian aggression, Antonov has stepped up its efforts to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In particular, it has been refurbishing and upgrading aircraft and has started the development of UAVs. There has also been discussion that Antonov should start developing and producing combat aircraft.
http://www.antonov.com/news/402

- As a near-term objective, Antonov aims to raise its output from single digits to 20-25 aircraft per year.


An informative interview with Antonov’s acting President Mykhaylo Hvozdov:

http://en.cfts.org.ua/articles/inter...ent_on_a_consortium_with_the_poles



In terms of products, Antonov has a number of ongoing projects:

- The new An-178 cargo aircraft is going through its flight test program. It will be offered in civilian and military versions. A westernized version is also planned.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonov_An-178

- Together with Saudi firm Taqnia Aeronautics, Antonov is developing the An-132, which is a modernized and westernized derivative of the An-32. It will be powered by P&W Canada PW150A engines and equipped with western avionics, and will be produced in Saudi Arabia. Search and Rescue, and Electronic Warfare versions are planned. The first flight is scheduled for next year.
http://www.airforce-technology.com/p...t-multipurpose-transport-aircraft/
http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-ne...e-and-ksa-cooperate-132-production
http://www.pwc.ca/en/pwc-to-power-an...an132-aircraft-with-pw150a-engines

- Antonov continues the development (started in 2013) of its An-148-based maritime patrol aircraft, the An-148-300MP. This aircraft is expected to replace the Be-200 in the Ukrainian Navy, and Poland is said to have taken an interest.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/ukraine/an-148mp.htm

- Antonov is also offering VIP and Ambulance versions of the An-148, respectively the An-148-100EA and An-148-100EM.

- Regarding the An-70, Antonov is considering two basic options: an An-70 with Ukrainian and western components instead of the (many) Russian ones. Or the An-188 presented at Le Bourget, which replaces the D-27 propfans with Ukrainian or western turbofans. The D-27’s propellers and related systems are produced by Russian firm Aerosila, and this seems to be the main factor motivating the possible switch to turbofans.
http://en.aerosila.ru/index.php?actions=main_content&id=32


This brochure/newsletter provides more details on some of these projects:

http://www.antonov.com/media/image/news/pdf/news292aeroindia2015.pdf
 
pipeafcr
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sun Dec 06, 2015 6:18 pm

Best option is to privatise the company. Antonov has had a long history and the name recognition will continue being in the favor of the company. Right now the Ukrainian government has more important things in their hands therefor Antonov should be removed from the government portfolio.
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solarflyer22
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sun Dec 06, 2015 6:22 pm

I think Antonov could be successful and there is a market for an alternative to the big two. Ukraine and Eastern Europe have all the talent they need but the low labor costs that benefit them. I've always felt there is plenty of market for Antonov in Iran and they did for a time ship kits for assembly in Isfahan. It doesn't seem like that's viable and if they are turning "Westward" they'll have to get components from the EU not Russia. Shifting production from Iran to Saudi Arabia makes more sense but if they were smarter they would have used Turkey instead. There is substantially more engineering talent there.
 
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thekorean
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sun Dec 06, 2015 6:22 pm

Perhaps now Antonov using western components can perhaps sell more planes to western nations and better compete in passenger jet market.
 
747400sp
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sun Dec 06, 2015 6:52 pm

Has Antonov ever work on a design for a commercial wide body?
 
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SR380
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:10 pm

Quoting 747400sp (Reply 4):

Has Antonov ever work on a design for a commercial wide body?

Yes they did, the An-218. Something close to an A300:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonov_An-218



Only a wooden mock-up was ever built:

 
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SR380
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:15 pm

As it seems Ukraine will join at some point the EU, could we imagine Antonov to join EADS and work together on building aircraft such as the A400M and next generation of A124, plus some regional aircraft?
 
NH203
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:45 pm

Quoting SR380 (Reply 6):
As it seems Ukraine will join at some point the EU

Is there any evidence that a Ukraine EU membership would have the backing of all 27 member states? I don't think so at all.
 
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SR380
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sun Dec 06, 2015 9:05 pm

Considering that some country from the ex-Yougoslavia joined, I don't see where the issue might be...


Politics aside it was just a thought. Antonov doesn't have long to live according to me if they relay on bonds for Ukraine. And so far they doesn't sell that much...
 
Kiwirob
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sun Dec 06, 2015 9:35 pm

Quoting SR380 (Reply 8):
Considering that some country from the ex-Yougoslavia joined, I don't see where the issue might be...


Very small countries with small problems, not a large highly corrupt nation. The cost to the EU to integrate Ukraine into it would be vast, far higher than any other Eastern European entrant. I can't see many countries supporting it.
 
petertenthije
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sun Dec 06, 2015 10:41 pm

Quoting NH203 (Reply 7):
Is there any evidence that a Ukraine EU membership would have the backing of all 27 member states? I don't think so at all.

A popular weblog in the Netherlands has managed to force a referendum on the treaty that prepares the EU and Ukraine for entry. Even though it is a non-binding referendum the government is not amused by it at all. They have been trying to stall and limit the options for casting votes. The referendum won't be held till april 6th.

For now the no vote seems to be on the upper hand, but that might be because the no-camp just forced the referendum. The yes-camp have pretty much been ignoring the referendum. They probably never expected there would be enough interest to meet the amount of votes needed to force the referendum.

As mentioned the referendum is not binding. So if the vote is "NO", the government can still say "YES". Whether they would do this is not clear, it could well be political suicide. Of course a "NO" vote would be damaging for any politician's European ambitions leaving them in a delightful catch-22.

Several opposition parties have already said that the outcome of the referendum has to be respected.
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lightsaber
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sun Dec 06, 2015 11:19 pm

Quoting Scipio (Thread starter):
Ukroboronprom issued a competition for a new President, but failed to find a suitable candidate. A few days ago, it launched a new competition. Unfortunately, only Ukrainian citizens are eligible…

That isn't a surprise when some of the prior talent was Russian. They need to open up the competition.

Quoting pipeafcr (Reply 1):
Antonov should be removed from the government portfolio.

The company is doomed unless privitized.

I hope to see new product, but the Russian funded disturbance is doing irrevocable damage to both Ukrainian and Russian aerospace.

Lightsaber
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rigo
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sun Dec 06, 2015 11:22 pm

What about the Very Big birds? The plan to build a second-generation An124 has been reportedly derailed by the conflict in Ukraine. An what will happen when the 225 reaches its end of life? There seems to be a marked for hauling super heavy and/or super large cargo that no other aircraft in existence can carry.
 
N415XJ
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sun Dec 06, 2015 11:37 pm

Quoting rigo (Reply 12):
There seems to be a marked for hauling super heavy and/or super large cargo that no other aircraft in existence can carry

I wonder if Lockheed would ever market the C-5 for commercial use once the AN-225 reaches the end of its life. I'm pretty sure this was proposed when the C-5 was first introduced but a commercial variant never gained sufficient interest. Maybe Lockheed could operate a single one sort of like what AN does with the 225?
 
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conaly
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Mon Dec 07, 2015 3:12 am

Wasn't there a plan of extending the maintenance facilities in Leipzig in order to upgrade the existing An-124 into a modernized version? Anybody knows what happened to that idea?
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aryonoco
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Mon Dec 07, 2015 3:28 am

Quoting SR380 (Reply 6):

As it seems Ukraine will join at some point the EU,

It doesn't seem like that at all. There are huge and powerful forces against Ukraine joining the EU or NATO.

Many in Europe aren't fond of admitting a country where part of its sovereign land is under occupation by a foreign aggressor. They did that with Cyprus but in that case at least, it was a cold conflict (even though I think it was a mistake to admit Cyprus as well). It won't be happening with Ukraine, where the conflict is still very warm.
 
Beatyair
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Mon Dec 07, 2015 3:45 am

Bombardier was building a plant in Russia until sanctions stopped that. But I wonder if it would have not been better to create a joint company out of the Ukraine with Antonov?
 
b747400erf
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Mon Dec 07, 2015 4:52 am

Quoting kiwirob (Reply 9):
not a large highly corrupt nation.

If that prevented nations from joining the EU then there would be few members.
 
neromancer
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Mon Dec 07, 2015 5:25 am

Quoting N415XJ (Reply 13):
I wonder if Lockheed would ever market the C-5 for commercial use once the AN-225 reaches the end of its life. I'm pretty sure this was proposed when the C-5 was first introduced but a commercial variant never gained sufficient interest. Maybe Lockheed could operate a single one sort of like what AN does with the 225?

The C-5 is quite expensive compared to the Antonov's. However from a size/payload standpoint it's only a little bit less capable than the AN-124.

The AN-225 is in a league of it's own. To bad there is only one. I know they had a second under construction and at one point there were talks about finishing it. Though it appears that's not going to happen.
 
Kiwirob
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Mon Dec 07, 2015 7:50 am

Quoting B747400ERF (Reply 17):
If that prevented nations from joining the EU then there would be few members.

Ukraine is way ahead of any European nation in the corruption stakes.

Quoting Beatyair (Reply 16):
Bombardier was building a plant in Russia until sanctions stopped that. But I wonder if it would have not been better to create a joint company out of the Ukraine with Antonov?

The Q400 plant is on hold but they are building locomotives in Russia.
 
b747400erf
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Mon Dec 07, 2015 9:01 am

Quoting kiwirob (Reply 19):

Ukraine is way ahead of any European nation in the corruption stakes.

Due to the corrupting influence of Russia that is now gone from everywhere but the east. Reforms that other formerly very corrupt (but still high on the list) nations such as Bulgaria Romania and others have taken can help.
 
rigo
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Mon Dec 07, 2015 9:53 am

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 15):

I wonder if Lockheed would ever market the C-5 for commercial use once the AN-225 reaches the end of its life

AFAIK the C5's capabilities are the same as the An 124's. It can't replace the 225.
 
Kiwirob
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Mon Dec 07, 2015 11:33 am

Quoting B747400ERF (Reply 20):
Due to the corrupting influence of Russia that is now gone from everywhere but the east. Reforms that other formerly very corrupt (but still high on the list) nations such as Bulgaria Romania and others have taken can help.

It has nothing to do with Russia at all, you're a fool if you think so. Corruption is ingrained into the Ukrainian way of life so deep that it will never be weeded out. I'v been in meetings in Ukraine where the first words spoken after hello is "what's my percentage", I've never had this in any other market I've worked in, my territory is the Baltics, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and the UK.

As for Antonovs future, who is going to buy their aircraft? And most of their engineers jumps ship to Russia years before the current troubles, just like the shipbuilding industry, all the talent went to Russia.
 
b747400erf
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Mon Dec 07, 2015 3:04 pm

Quoting kiwirob (Reply 22):

It has nothing to do with Russia at all, you're a fool if you think so.

If I felt like reading RT.com comments I'd go over there. Ukraine's corruption is on the same level as Russia in the Corruptions Perception Index. The rich that controlled Ukraine had been put in place by Russia so Putin's cronies could control the country and the recent revolution has changed that. A move to the EU would create more systems to fight corruption. I see that you are going to post your feelings in support of Putin regardless of reality.
 
Kiwirob
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Mon Dec 07, 2015 6:17 pm

Quoting B747400ERF (Reply 23):
Ukraine's corruption is on the same level as Russia in the Corruptions Perception Index. The rich that controlled Ukraine had been put in place by Russia so Putin's cronies could control the country and the recent revolution has changed that.

My perception is different. The rich that controlled Ukraine still control Ukraine, if you think the Poroshenko is clean, think again, he's as big a crook as any leader Ukraine has ever had.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/25/...les-ukraine-poroshenko-corruption/
 
b747400erf
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Tue Dec 08, 2015 4:39 am

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 24):

My perception is different. The rich that controlled Ukraine still control Ukraine, if you think the Poroshenko is clean, think again, he's as big a crook as any leader Ukraine has ever had.

Again, I do not need to read your RT comments. I also never said anyone is clean, I clearly stated my argument that you chose to ignore. You discounting a perception index over your biased opinion is clearly proof you are not here to debate but to preach.
 
Kiwirob
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Tue Dec 08, 2015 8:48 am

Quoting B747400ERF (Reply 25):
You discounting a perception index over your biased opinion is clearly proof you are not here to debate but to preach.

My opinion is actually based on business dealings with Ukrainan companies over the past 9 years, I don't really care what some perception index states or what you have to say because I doubt you've ever been to Ukraine or had contact with any company there.
 
Scipio
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sat Dec 12, 2015 10:53 am

Quoting pipeafcr (Reply 1):
Best option is to privatise the company.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 11):
The company is doomed unless privitized.

There is currently no support in Ukrainian society for privatizing Antonov. With Antonov having been allocated to Ukroboronprom and being seen as essential to restoring Ukraine's armed forces, this will likely continue to be the case in the coming years.

However, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade recently proposed selling a minority stake in Antonov to a strategic foreign investor.

http://open4business.com.ua/economy-...selling-minority-stake-in-antonov/

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 2):
Shifting production from Iran to Saudi Arabia makes more sense but if they were smarter they would have used Turkey instead. There is substantially more engineering talent there.

The An-132 project with Saudi-Arabia is undoubtedly money-driven. However, as large Black Sea nations with troubled relations with Russia, Ukraine and Turkey are natural partners. Both countries are seeking to cooperate in defense, aviation and space projects, as evidenced for example by these recent press releases and news items:

http://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-econ...esign_plane_for_turkey_329991.html

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...-aircraft-with-ukraine-377256.html

http://www.standartnews.com/english/...senger_planes_for_turkey-7809.html

http://spetstechnoexport.com/news/13

http://www.ukroboronprom.com.ua/en/newsview/1/628

http://www.ukroboronprom.com.ua/en/newsview/1/645

http://www.ukroboronprom.com.ua/en/newsview/1/650

Quoting Beatyair (Reply 16):
Bombardier was building a plant in Russia until sanctions stopped that. But I wonder if it would have not been better to create a joint company out of the Ukraine with Antonov?

Canada is another natural partner for Ukraine, given the historic and demographic links. Canada has been one of the strongest, if not the strongest, supporter of Ukraine in the ongoing confrontation with Russia.

The An-132 will be powered by Canadian engines.

And other joint projects are being considered or underway:

http://www.ukroboronprom.com.ua/en/newsview/1/676

http://uatoday.tv/politics/canada-de...operation-with-ukraine-521012.html

http://www.antonov.com/news/394
 
Scipio
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Sat Dec 12, 2015 10:58 am

Quoting B747400ERF (Reply 25):
Again, I do not need to read your RT comments. I also never said anyone is clean, I clearly stated my argument that you chose to ignore. You discounting a perception index over your biased opinion is clearly proof you are not here to debate but to preach.

There is no point in discussing anything Ukraine-related with Kiwinocchio. He tries to spoil and take off-topic every Ukraine-related thread on a.net, with endless, very repetitive, and devoid-of-evidence variations of his "Ukraine is doomed no matter what" tune.

I ignore his posts.
 
Scipio
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Tue Dec 22, 2015 1:53 am

 
Kiwirob
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Tue Dec 22, 2015 6:58 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 28):
He tries to spoil and take off-topic every Ukraine-related thread on a.net, with endless, very repetitive, and devoid-of-evidence variations of his "Ukraine is doomed no matter what" tune.

And you can't counter any of it because you know what it's also true.
 
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Ty134A
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Tue Dec 22, 2015 7:54 am

Quoting NH203 (Reply 7):

Quoting SR380 (Reply 6):
As it seems Ukraine will join at some point the EU

Is there any evidence that a Ukraine EU membership would have the backing of all 27 member states? I don't think so at all.

i believe it is highly likely that ukraine will join the EU, depending on what the US plan. for those not living in this wonderful union of nations called the EU it might seem funny, but our politicians actually act against the will and interests of their people. for beginners: the eu plans visa free entry for ukraine and turkey!?! on has to ask himself wtf??? but then hey, while our citizens need to show their passport for flying from one point of the eu to the other, anybody can enter the EU without any documents and stay were he wishes to, which ist Austria (most "refugees" per capita, Germany and Sweden). the majority does not support these politics. and when a nation tends to drift to the right, the existing governments try everything to stop these parties, like in france, even if they don't share a thing in their politics. this EU is luckily dead....

as for antonov, maybe the new partners in the west will buy their planes -> LH any one??? unfortunately ukrainian people will get a feeling for the eu now, and for the deeper political reasons of the maidan revolution, that was supportet by EU and the US. maybe the first people of ukraine already share the "f**k the EU" feeling of miss newland?! because trust me, nobody wants his tax euros to go to ukraine here in the EU. unfortunately this is not our decision, but the one of ms merkel and those that tell her what to do! one more example for that: remember how the german government raped greece for fulfilling existing contracts and debts? "a contract is a contract and needs to be fullfilled" said mr. schäuble. but ukraine can't go bankrupt, even if they can't fulfill their contracts (with russia), because the IMF changed their rules for ukraine... this is so sick! oh, and while one nation listens to the phone of ms. merkel, it's not a big thing, just "don't do it again". but when russian media releases authentic phone calls of EU politicians discussing the fact that it may have been the same people shooting "both sides" on maidan was really bad, and led to martial speach from our politicians. ms. nuland, i really share your feelings for the eu!

antonov only has a future with a new strategy, and designing a wing for the ARJ-21 to begin with was a good idea, no matter how successful the plane will be. it is important to keep the company in state control, or it will be robbed from a foreign investor and it will be gone completely. but the main question antonov and ukraine must ask themselves: is there any interest from the west, russia and other nations that antonov is a strong aircraft manufacturer?

i really hope that antonov finds a way to exist and survive somehow, one way or the other. but consolidation needs some time and does not include building airliners that can't compete. building airliners is only the last step of a reorganizes and modernizes company in a financially healthy country.... the way there is a long one, and the current "partners" are not the right ones, but it is doable! hopefully antonov will do well!
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Kiwirob
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Tue Dec 22, 2015 10:21 am

Quoting Ty134A (Reply 31):
it is important to keep the company in state control, or it will be robbed from a foreign investor and it will be gone completely.

It wouldn't be a foreign investor it would be a local investor, I doubt a foreign compnay would want it, most of Antonovs talent went to Russia years ago. It's mostly old people left.


Quoting Ty134A (Reply 31):
but the main question antonov and ukraine must ask themselves: is there any interest from the west, russia and other nations that antonov is a strong aircraft manufacturer?

I doubt the West really cares what happens to Antonov, the West doesn't buy it's aircraft, they never have, and I doubt they ever will. Russia and China have their own industries to support, maybe the best future would be to move the company to KSA.
 
Scipio
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Thu Dec 31, 2015 4:54 pm

Antonov has completed the assembly of the fuselage of the second An-178 prototype, and of the cockpit section of the first An-132 prototype.

http://www.antonov.com/media/image/news/fullimg437_1.png

At the roll-out ceremony, (acting) CEO Gvozdov reflected on the company's achievements during 2015 and on the coming year:

http://www.antonov.com/news/437?lang=en
 
Scipio
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:43 pm

A few articles on the future of the An-124 and, in second order, of the An-70 and An-188. Unfortunately, in Russian only.

Regarding the An-124:

- Antonov is seeking to replace Russian components by Ukrainian and western ones. This concerns in the first place the undercarriage and breaks, and avionics. Newer avionics would allow the crew to be reduced from 6 to 4.
- Russia is expected to have more problems to keep its An-124 fleet operational in the absence of Ukrainian components and support. It is likely to have to resort to cannibalizing some frames for parts. A particular problem is the Ukrainian D-18 engines. Kuznetsov has been asked to develop a replacement engine.

Regarding the An-70 and An-188:

- Russia owns half the intellectual property for the An-70. Proceeding alone is therefore not feasible for Antonov.
- The An-188 will not have the same performance as the An-70: it will have a lower payload and need more distance for take-off and landing. However, it will still be able to operate out of unpaved airstrips.

http://news.eizvestia.com/news_econo...any-v-rossii-zhdet-kannibalizaciya

http://www.profi-forex.org/novosti-mira/entry1008279913.html

http://www.aex.ru/news/2016/1/13/147919/
 
Scipio
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Tue Jan 26, 2016 11:34 pm

The Ukrainian media reported today that Antonov is being liquidated...

As it turns out, this news concerns the "State Aircraft Manufacturing Concern Antonov", a now empty holding company which used to hold the government's shares in Antonov, the Kharkiv State Aircraft Manufacturing Company, and Kyiv Aircraft Repair Plant 410. All three companies were transferred to Ukraine's state defense conglomerate Ukroboronprom last year.

http://uatoday.tv/news/ukraine-s-ant...ation-group-liquidated-578864.html
http://www.unian.info/economics/1247...nov-aviation-group-liquidated.html


Also today, it was announced that Antonov has committed to developing an armed attack UAV for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Development of this UAV is targeted for completion by mid-2017.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Wed Jan 27, 2016 6:15 pm

First, it will be a decade at the least, before Ukraine is even seriously considered for entry into the EU. Just look at all the trouble that happened when they were just talking about trade agreements and entry into NATO.

The EU has way too much invested into their relationship with Moscow to even think about EU membership for Ukraine...at least while Putin is in power in Russia. That dude is completely crack addict mad and wouldn't think twice about starting WW3 over that. Nobody wants the grief and the EU, now that their short sighted antics lit the fuse, are scrambling like crazy trying to pretend that Ukraine doesn't even exist.

The poked the psycho bear and since, have pretty much dropped the stick and ran.

I think Iran should take a major stake in Antonov. They already build some of their own aircraft and have proven they can keep just about anything with wings flying with absolutely no support from the manufacturers. I mean, c'mon...they still have 30 or so F-14's in active service, decades after the US navy turned theirs into beer cans.
What the...?
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2469
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Thu Jan 28, 2016 11:56 am

Quoting Scipio (Thread starter):
Dmitro Kiva was relieved of his duties as President of the company, but he stays on as General Constructor / Chief Designer. (Now ex-) Member of Parliament Mykhaylo Hvozdov was appointed acting President.

In what world is replacing an engineer with a politician a good idea?
 
anrec80
Posts: 2243
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

RE: Future Of Antonov

Fri Jan 29, 2016 12:56 am

Quoting SR380 (Reply 6):
As it seems Ukraine will join at some point the EU, could we imagine Antonov to join EADS and work together on building aircraft such as the A400M and next generation of A124, plus some regional aircraft?

No point in imagining that - unrealistic. EADS management told to former PM Azarov precisely that. And to numerous Ukrainian officials prior to him. Forget about Antonov+EADS. Simply not happening.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 27):
There is currently no support in Ukrainian society for privatizing Antonov. With Antonov having been allocated to Ukroboronprom and being seen as essential to restoring Ukraine's armed forces

Restore armed forces? Seriously? They are good at only collecting junk from all over the globe.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 27):
However, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade recently proposed selling a minority stake in Antonov to a strategic foreign investor.

OK - and who needs it? Antonov is living off Soviet heritage, which is getting hopelessly outdated. And didn't make much new since.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 29):
Antonov has signed an MoU to deliver 30 of its new An-178's to the Royal Saudi Air Force.

Do they even have what it takes to complete this contract? Financial resources, engineers, skilled workers? The history of post-soviet aviation knows countless examples when such contracts, signed in presence of presidents, miserably failed later.
 
anrec80
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Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

RE: Future Of Antonov

Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:06 am

Quoting kiwirob (Reply 9):
The cost to the EU to integrate Ukraine into it would be vast, far higher than any other Eastern European entrant.

That' right. Nobody wants to take Ukraine on their books. Neither EU nor Russia.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 36):
First, it will be a decade at the least, before Ukraine is even seriously considered for entry into the EU.

If there will be EU by that time.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 40):
In what world is replacing an engineer with a politician a good idea?

In Ukraine, it doesn't have to be a good idea. It only has to be immediately profitable to those involved into such decision.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 34):
- Russia is expected to have more problems to keep its An-124 fleet operational in the absence of Ukrainian components and support. It is likely to have to resort to cannibalizing some frames for parts. A particular problem is the Ukrainian D-18 engines. Kuznetsov has been asked to develop a replacement engine.

They'll probably end up developing a brand new plane, with new engine. Ukraine will no longer be in demand. It's a pity - a country had high-tech manufacturing, aviation schools, traditions just let it go into waste over some "European dreams".
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:18 am

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 42):
In Ukraine, it doesn't have to be a good idea. It only has to be immediately profitable to those involved into such decision.

Sad but that's the way I saw things when I lived in Ukraine.
What the...?
 
anrec80
Posts: 2243
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

RE: Future Of Antonov

Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:30 am

Quoting NH203 (Reply 7):
Is there any evidence that a Ukraine EU membership would have the backing of all 27 member states? I don't think so at all.

There is something called "European solidarity". Sort of a complex thing, when all key decisions in EU are being made and overridden by a few dudes, who aren't elected by anyone, and appointed instead.

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 15):
Many in Europe aren't fond of admitting a country where part of its sovereign land is under occupation by a foreign aggressor.

The "aggressor" in Ukraine exists only in mind of Kiev's chiefs. They need to somehow justify begging of billions of dollars and splitting them between themselves. Ask ISIS what a Russian aggression is. They'll tell. And the Ukrainians also have a sense of what it is - they say themselves: "we don't have anything to fight with - not even a SAM with unexpired warranty. We won't even be occupied - a couple of divisions of special forces in Kiev will suffice". They know "democratic West" will buy this cheap show.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 36):
I think Iran should take a major stake in Antonov.

And - what do they get with the stake? Intellectual property on 1980s/1990s planes at best? While even Russians are moving onto composites?

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 36):
That dude is completely crack addict mad and wouldn't think twice about starting WW3 over that.

Well - he doesn't. And to surprise of many doesn't even stick into Ukraine, even though being able to just finish it off in a few days. Despite attacks on the embassy, casualties on their own territory from Ukrainian military, armored vehicles invasions, etc. If he wanted to finish it off - he had perfectly valid grounds for that.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 36):
The poked the psycho bear and since, have pretty much dropped the stick and ran.

What should they do? They are simply not capable of anything else. Russia is firmly #2 country in military strength and influence, #1 in Europe. And the European chicken shed can't even defend their own women from being raped on the streets. Read anything about the "Cologne New Year"? And how European officials suggested their own women to adopt a "dress code" and use "arm-length rule"? How do you think any political leader will regard them? And how do they deserve to be regarded?

[Edited 2016-01-28 17:42:17]
 
anrec80
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:38 am

Quoting thekorean (Reply 3):
Perhaps now Antonov using western components can perhaps sell more planes to western nations and better compete in passenger jet market.

Not a chance. An-148 are not competitive with E-jets and SSJ. SU subsidiary Rossiya grounded their An-148s as unprofitable, but SU keeps on flying their SSJs. They need brand new models, billions of dollars investments into new frame and engine. Even if they had engineering schools (Antonov+Motor Sich), nobody gives them any money.
 
anrec80
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Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

RE: Future Of Antonov

Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:46 am

There are also reports that An-178 suffers from centering problem, and test and ferry flights require over 1 ton of ballast right behind cockpit door. Antonov gotta get themselves together!
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:48 am

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 44):

And - what do they get with the stake? Intellectual property on 1980s/1990s planes at best? While even Russians are moving onto composites?

What they get is a plug and play organization that can be a springboard into a commercial aircraft industry in Iran. Composites are not nearly the panacea to all aeronautic ills that was claimed in the 7x7 days. Name one all composite aircraft coming out in the next....ever?

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 44):

Well - he doesn't. And to surprise of many doesn't even stick into Ukraine, even though being able to just finish it off in a few days. Despite attacks on the embassy, casualties on their own territory from Ukrainian military, armored vehicles invasions, etc. If he wanted to finish it off - he had perfectly valid grounds for that.

He doesn't because he and his oligarch pals are losing billions due to sanctions for playing tough guy in Eastern Ukraine. Now, you're spinning that Ukraine is attacking Russia?

Best laugh all day.
What the...?
 
anrec80
Posts: 2243
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

RE: Future Of Antonov

Fri Jan 29, 2016 2:12 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 47):
Name one all composite aircraft coming out in the next....ever?

MS-21?

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 47):
He doesn't because he and his oligarch pals are losing billions due to sanctions for playing tough guy in Eastern Ukraine.

Oh please - sanctions. And who lost what over them? I am aware of one occurrence when someone' credit card didn't work at a medical clinic and when someone got their house sealed. No billions. And look at Bernie Madoff - 50bn are being searched by the whole world and noone can find anything. And don't think Russian businessmen are dumber and don't know what these "sanctions" are. EU already doesn't know how to get rid of them.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 47):
Now, you're spinning that Ukraine is attacking Russia?

Were there not incidents in summer 2014 where Ukrainian shells were Russian villagers were killed? Wasn't their FM dancing by burnt Russian embassy and singing little nasty songs about Putin (when he yet held the mandate to use military force in Ukraine)? All spring and summer those "democratic leaders" were just asking for trouble. He certainly could have just moved and locked all of them into the White Swan for life - it would have been perfectly valid response. And then see - maybe it was overreaction, maybe it wasn't.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Fri Jan 29, 2016 2:37 am

Quoting anrec80 (Reply 48):
Were there not incidents in summer 2014 where Ukrainian shells were Russian villagers were killed? Wasn't their FM dancing by burnt Russian embassy and singing little nasty songs about Putin (when he yet held the mandate to use military force in Ukraine)? All spring and summer those "democratic leaders" were just asking for trouble. He certainly could have just moved and locked all of them into the White Swan for life - it would have been perfectly valid response. And then see - maybe it was overreaction, maybe it wasn't.

None of which would have happened if Putin hadn't invaded Ukraine. Oh...sorry....I meant if Russian troops hadn't vacationed in Ukraine with their tanks, missiles and guns. It's like how Putin denied for a year that Russian troops weren't acting in Crimea....until the anniversary when he admitted he had been planning the invasion all along.

Regardless, talk about the great shirtless one bores me.

By the way, the MS-21 has an aluminum fuse. It's not all composite.
What the...?
 
anrec80
Posts: 2243
Joined: Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:50 am

RE: Future Of Antonov

Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:22 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 49):
None of which would have happened if Putin hadn't invaded Ukraine.

Except that for almost 2 years nobody saw any "invaders". There were more UFO sightings over these 2 years than those of Russian troops. Ukrainians counted whole 67(!) "invaders". And their generals confirm they aren't fighting regular Russian troops. They won't admit of course that they are killing their own people there.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 49):
the great shirtless one

This "great shirtless one" is one of the most peaceful on the planet perhaps. At least he doesn't have on his hands blood of hundreds of thousands in the whole Middle East, as the Nobel Prize winner to the south of us does. And our former PM supported that as hard as he could. Before criticizing the "shirtless one" those dudes should finally stop killing people.
 
WIederling
Posts: 8887
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:29 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 43):
Sad but that's the way I saw things when I lived in Ukraine.

It is kind of a gutting process ( like shooting buffalo in the US )
take the few pieces you wanted and leave the remainder in festering dilapidation.
( and explains the oligarch/politician swap away from a technically competent manager )
Murphy is an optimist
 
Scipio
Topic Author
Posts: 926
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RE: Future Of Antonov

Fri Jan 29, 2016 5:01 pm

Can we please keep this thread on topic?

There is a dedicated thread on the Ukraine crisis in the non-aviation section of a.net:

Ukraine Crisis, Part 3 (by lightsaber Nov 8 2015 in Non Aviation)



Today, Ukroboronprom published some further information on the project to develop an armed UAV.

This multi-functional UAV will in the first place be meant for reconnaissance, but it will have the possibility to carry small payloads to attack ground targets.

While Antonov is the lead contractor, several Ukroboronprom companies are involved (including Ivchenko-Progress), as are two companies owned by Ukraine's State Space Agency -- Arsenal and Khartron.

The development schedule is even more ambitious than announced earlier: development should be completed by the end of the year, and the first frame(s) should be delivered to the Ukrainian military for testing in the first quarter of 2017.

http://www.ukroboronprom.com.ua/newsview/1/930

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