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Flyingsottsman
Topic Author
Posts: 848
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:32 pm

Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Thu Dec 10, 2015 12:43 pm

Hello all, if we go back in time to like 40 years ago, we had Boeing, McDonald Douglas, General Dynamics, Lockheed in the USA.
In Europe the British Aircraft Corporation with the Tridents, Vanguards, Viscounts, etc etc , the aircraft manufactures in the Soviet Union
and of course Airbus who was a small player back then as well as Fokker in the Netherlands. My question is today in 2015 is there room for another
aircraft manufacturer to rival both Airbus and Boeing ? It seems gone are the days where was a lot of different type of aircraft at airports,
now it just seem there are just 2 types Airbus and Boeing 4 holers are becoming rare and you are very very lucky to see a tri-jet now, so is there room for another
aircraft company to make wide or narrow bodied aircraft to rival both Airbus and Boeing?
 
mig21umd
Posts: 319
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2005 6:30 pm

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Thu Dec 10, 2015 12:59 pm

You would think only Bombardier or Embraer would be in a position to really expand into Airbus or Boeing territory but I doubt they have the capacity or the political power to do so.

The Chinese could have a go but I doubt it.

Maybe we could see Virgin Galactic's all over the place soon??  
 
lijnden
Posts: 545
Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2003 1:34 am

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Thu Dec 10, 2015 1:46 pm

There were also several Russian aircraft builders! Tupolev, Antonov, Yakolev, Ilyushin, Sukhoi
 
lancelot07
Posts: 1078
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:22 pm

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Thu Dec 10, 2015 2:32 pm

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Thread starter):
Hello all, if we go back in time to like 40 years ago, we had Boeing, McDonald Douglas, General Dynamics, Lockheed in the USA. In Europe the British Aircraft Corporation with the Tridents, Vanguards, Viscounts, etc etc , the aircraft manufactures in the Soviet Union
and of course Airbus

Better we put some facts right:
- Mc Donnell took over the Douglas corporation, forming Mc Donnell-Douglas from 2 seperate companies, and none had anything to do with Mc Donald's.
- afaik, General Dynamics only built military planes (as did Mc Donnell)
- In Britain, there were many aircraft companies, Vanguards and Viscounts were made by Vickers, Tridents by Hawker Siddeley, and BAC made the One-Eleven.
- Airbus was not a company at the time, but a consortium of independent companies - basically a joint venture.

It is not about "room" for a new company. A new company will have to conquer market share by superior or cheaper products, products that enable airlines to enhance their profits.
 
jetblue1965
Posts: 5050
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:28 pm

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Thu Dec 10, 2015 2:33 pm

Embraer is on track to have the best chance to eventually challenge the Boeing/Airbus duopoly. After the E2 series, I believe their next ambition will be targeting directly at the 320neo / 738max market.
 
User avatar
FredrikHAD
Posts: 453
Joined: Thu Aug 06, 2015 9:44 pm

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Thu Dec 10, 2015 3:15 pm

Quoting lijnden (Reply 2):
There were also several Russian aircraft builders! Tupolev, Antonov, Yakolev, Ilyushin, Sukhoi

Antonov is a Ukrainian company and was a Soviet company back then... The others are truly Russian as far as I know (including YakoVlev).

/Fredrik
 
Flyingsottsman
Topic Author
Posts: 848
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:32 pm

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Fri Dec 11, 2015 10:50 am

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 3):
General Dynamics only built military planes (as did Mc Donnell)

I thought they also built the CV880 and 990s even though not a lot of them were built.
 
lancelot07
Posts: 1078
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:22 pm

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:20 am

Quoting Flyingsottsman (Reply 6):
I thought they also built the CV880 and 990s even though not a lot of them were built.

   I forgot they took over Convair.
 
mika
Posts: 2810
Joined: Thu Jul 27, 2000 7:53 am

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:09 pm

What's interesting to know in answering this question is what kind of profit margins we are talking about when it comes to manufacturing airliners.

Entry barriers into the aircraft manufacturing industry are also astronomical, if we're talking about a new company entering the industry.
 
WIederling
Posts: 10043
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Fri Dec 11, 2015 1:03 pm

Quoting FredrikHAD (Reply 5):
Antonov is a Ukrainian company

Antonov was founded in Novosibirsk in 1946 and relocated to Kiev in 1952.
Oleg Antonov had a Russian (family) background.

see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleg_Konstantinovich_Antonov
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonov

Moving to Kiew looks like postwar structural support for the war torn region.
though going by the text there must have been some aero stuff going on
in prewar times.
 
xiaotung
Posts: 1102
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 7:58 pm

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Fri Dec 11, 2015 1:20 pm

After A for Airbus and B for Boeing, we will have C for Comac (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China). Not that I am particularly confident about their projects, the C919 (equivalent to A320 and B737 families) has been rolled out last month and they have proposed widebody C929, C939, etc.

Chinese airlines have been forced to buy them (over 500 on order) so Comac will become a significant player whether you like it or not.
 
jetblue1965
Posts: 5050
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:28 pm

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Fri Dec 11, 2015 1:26 pm

Quoting xiaotung (Reply 10):

It's only a significant player in the Chinese market. The more accurate gauge to measure one's chances to challenge the incumbents is how much international sales to more developed nations, not some tiny obscure one that had special commerce ties to China (and the contract procured in a less than transparent fashion)
 
WIederling
Posts: 10043
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Fri Dec 11, 2015 1:36 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 11):

It's only a significant player in the Chinese market.

Toyota:
it is only a significant player in the Japanese market.
Airbus:
it is only a significant player in the Euro market ( if even that )
China:
can only do cheap plastics.

...
If things progress the way they are now the Chinese ( better greater asian ) market may
well become the dominant playing field.
 
jetblue1965
Posts: 5050
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:28 pm

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Fri Dec 11, 2015 2:43 pm

Quoting WIederling (Reply 12):

If things progress the way they are now the Chinese ( better greater asian ) market may
well become the dominant playing field.

Have you realized how much harder it is to gain a good reputation in the airliner space, and how much faster one can ruin it with a single accident ? Out of 517 orders, I can count exactly 30 that is not Chinese - 10 for some obscure LCC in Thailand, and 20 for GECAS. And if you look up the orders, there's a very large chunk [force] taken up by leasing companies that don't even have placement arrangements yet.

Of the China4 (CA, MU, CZ, HU), each is forced to take 20 (which is probably the minimum amount). Even the Chinese airlines aren't voting with their own wallets.

For Comac to earn their spot on the global stage, we're talking about a minimum 15-20 years here. Just remember how long it took Airbus to rise up.

As of now, Embraer has a far higher chance to actually challenge Boeing/Airbus.
 
r2rho
Posts: 3096
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 10:13 pm

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Fri Dec 11, 2015 3:17 pm

Is there room for a third or fourth player? Given the size of the market, there sure is. But duopolies are by nature extremely hard to break into - just ask BBD and their CSeries. One needs to have an "endless" pile of cash to ride out losses for years, and even then there is no guarantee of success. See Microsoft, which despite endless cash has not been able to break the Apple-Android duopoly, although the barriers to entry are much smaller in that market - you don't have to FAA-certify your smartphone. Any third player would inevitably need tons of government & political support - just like when Airbus was created.

All that, plus of course an excellent product, plus perfect timing, plus a bit of luck, can enable you to - perhaps! - break into a duopoly. But it's hard...
 
KD5MDK
Posts: 834
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:05 am

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Sat Dec 12, 2015 11:35 pm

I think the future of commercial aircraft will turn out to be Airbus, Boeing and Embraer, with everyone else being 1/5 their size or less. (Bombardier, Sukhoi, etc)
 
B8887
Posts: 457
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2012 9:47 pm

RE: Is There Room For Another Aircraft Company

Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:40 am

As a general reply to the thread title, I would say that there is, to a certain extent, room for more.

We saw just in the last few weeks, MRJ's first flight and COMAC's ARJ21 enter service. Both have two wings and look more than capable of flying to me.

Manufacturers that want want to challenge A and B.... Mmmh, that's a very tall order and I would say that the answer is no to that for a very long time.

Regards.

B8887

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