User avatar
Boeing778X
Topic Author
Posts: 3268
Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:55 pm

Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sat Dec 12, 2015 12:49 am

Hello A.netters. This is sort of a follow up thread to one I did earlier this year, and I have additional questions to ask.

Boeing NSA/797/Y1 Appearance And Specs (by Boeing778X Apr 20 2015 in Civil Aviation)

In recent threads, the topic of the Boeing MoM (Middle of Market), which is widely expected to be a 757 successor, has come up.

From somewhere, it was stated that any potential MoM "wouldn't enter service before 2022", which is to be expected.

Curious, I started reading various articles and threads for further info, and in doing so, I came across this article, posted a year ago by Aspire Aviation.

http://www.aspireaviation.com/2014/11/26/boeing-nsa-2018-launch/

I don't know how well embedded in the industry the writers are, or if they are credible.

Basically, this article states that Boeing is aiming to launch the NSA (New Single Aisle), which is widely known to be the eventual 737 successor, around 2018, with an entry into service in the 2024/25 range.

Meanwhile, Airways Magazine covered the rollout of the 737 MAX earlier this week, and according to this article, which covered several things besides the MAX, it is suggested by many within the industry that the MoM (called the 'NMA' in the article), may actually be in the early stages of development at Boeing.

http://airwaysnews.com/blog/2015/12/08/first-737-max/

According to the Aspire page, the NSA would be launched in 2018 with EIS no earlier than 2024, and I understand that's information from an article that is fairly old.
The MoM, according to some sources, has an EIS no earlier that 2022 (which, if followed the NSA numbers, would put the launch date sometime next year.)

I'd like to hear what you guys have to say. I'm certainly not concluding that these numbers are facts in any way, but does anything here hold water?

Is it possible that we could be perhaps several months, and not years, away from Boeing coming out with a potential project for new aircraft?
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
astuteman
Posts: 6931
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sat Dec 12, 2015 5:28 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Thread starter):
Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

All depends on what MoM and NSA end up being IMO.

Aside from the opportunity of putting a platform into the current space between narrowbody and widebody, I share the view of many that Boeing will be concerned about the 737-9/A321 space.
If MoM covers this size off at the bottom end of its range, I could see it being launched in 2017/2018 for a c. 2025 EIS
And I think this is at the earliest.
Why?
Availability of engines a generation beyond Leap/P+W GTF

As far as NSA goes, I just can't see Boeing moving at all soon in this arena.
Certainly not in advance of the MoM.
Why?
Firstly, the 737-8MAX is doing just fine, with some 2 700 in backlog 18 months before EIS.
And I don't see this changing anytime soon.
Unlike the 737-9 MAX, it's not particularly disadvantaged in the market.

Secondly, in order to step beyond the A320 series NSA will need a breakthrough technology IMO.
Too many of the big efficiency gains for a narrowbody are "retro-fittable" to the A320 (the next gen+ GTF engines, CFRP wings etc) easily, and more quickly than NSA can

It will be open rotor/propfan which engenders the next big change in standard narrowbody world IMO.

So "watch this space, but, not anythime soon" for NSA is my opinion  

Rgds
 
User avatar
Boeing778X
Topic Author
Posts: 3268
Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:55 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:08 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 1):
Aside from the opportunity of putting a platform into the current space between narrowbody and widebody, I share the view of many that Boeing will be concerned about the 737-9/A321 space.
If MoM covers this size off at the bottom end of its range, I could see it being launched in 2017/2018 for a c. 2025 EIS

I think, deep down, Boeing knows they should have never let the 757 go. Airbus' move to extend the range of the A321neo, which is already going to be such a phenomenal aircraft, would probably make then uneasy. The 737 MAX 9 is inferior competition and carriers will probably not invest in the 787-8 for 757 missions.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 1):
As far as NSA goes, I just can't see Boeing moving at all soon in this arena.
Certainly not in advance of the MoM.
Why?
Firstly, the 737-8MAX is doing just fine, with some 2 700 in backlog 18 months before EIS.
And I don't see this changing anytime soon.
Unlike the 737-9 MAX, it's not particularly disadvantaged in the market.

No, it's not. In fact, I think it's probably one of there best planes thus far.

But I think we're forgetting one thing. Prior to the launch of the NEO, Boeing was well into the idea of the 737 successor. When Airbus made that particular move, pretty much all Boeing could do at that point was further enhance the 737.

The MAX, especially the MAX 8, will buy Boeing a few years, but I don't think they'd put it off the NSA for long.

I also think that, perhaps, the MoM and NSA could be developed together, like the 757 and 767 were.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 1):
Secondly, in order to step beyond the A320 series NSA will need a breakthrough technology IMO.

A lot can happen between now and the end of the decade, technology wise. And Airbus is going to make sure they have superiority in the narrowbody market, so it's going to be a nice challenge for Boeing and the NSA.

Boeing can build on what they're doing currently, like with the 787 and 777X.
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18295
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:27 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 1):
I could see it being launched in 2017/2018 for a c. 2025 EIS
And I think this is at the earliest.
Why?
Availability of engines a generation beyond Leap/P+W GTF

Well said my friend. I would just nitpick the engines will be half a great job ahead. Pratt will offer a 3.5:1 GTF with higher temperatures. RR will do a scaled down and hotter TXWB. GE will grow and evolve the LEAP.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 2):
Boeing knows they should have never let the 757 go

We're... This isn't braking up with a girl. Either the sales support production or one halts. The issue for Boeing is the 739ER and A321 (in particular) invade the 757 market space. Due to high 757 maintenance costs, on a new design would be competitive.


Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 2):
Boeing can build on what they're doing currently, like with the 787 and 777X.

I expect CFRP wings with a beer can fuselage. Boeing will be risk adverse.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:29 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 2):
A lot can happen between now and the end of the decade, technology wise.

Not just technology... I still think that there will be further consolidation at some point in the next 5-10 years. And before anyone says no way, just look at the M&A activity that has happened in other industries that were once thought unthinkable. I would have said that there would be little chance that DuPont and Corning would even think about trying to merge... and yet there they are.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
User avatar
Boeing717200
Posts: 1926
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:26 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:56 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 3):
We're... This isn't braking up with a girl. Either the sales support production or one halts. The issue for Boeing is the 739ER and A321 (in particular) invade the 757 market space. Due to high 757 maintenance costs, on a new design would be competitive.

Agreed, but it would have been interesting to see what the market would have thought about a new wing and engine. I think it fell into a weird point in time where a new engine just wasn't going to be there and a new wing wasn't going to be enough. They may have also been thinking it would roll right in behind the 787 before all hell broke lose in that project.
240 years and the top two candidates are named Dumb and Dumber. Stay classy!
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:13 pm

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 5):
Agreed, but it would have been interesting to see what the market would have thought about a new wing and engine.

757 production ended over 10 years ago and Boeing had the line on life support for a while prior to 2004. Very, very few people ever expected that Boeing wouldn't have launched their new NB by 2010.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 17633
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:27 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Thread starter):
I don't know how well embedded in the industry the writers are, or if they are credible.

IMHO, it's questionable. Daniel Tsang is pretty much the cheerleader of Boeing fanboyz. In most of his articles there's always an upside for Boeing and usually a downside for Airbus (rarely, if ever, the reverse).

I can't see that Boeing is willing to spend around $10billion on NSA without being able to deliver 25% better operating costs than neo/MAX. They certainly can't do that now and I don't think they'll be able to before 2020.

I have serious doubts that MOM will ever materialise.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
flyabr
Posts: 854
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:42 am

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:27 pm

I still can't help but wonder about a 763MAX with CFRP wings as a stopgap until the NSA is ready to roll.  
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:48 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 7):
I can't see that Boeing is willing to spend around $10billion on NSA without being able to deliver 25% better operating costs than neo/MAX. They certainly can't do that now and I don't think they'll be able to before 2020.

25% is huge! To achieve that they would have to go radical... and I don't think the airline industry will be ready.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:16 pm

I don't think we will see a major program launch until the 77X is confidently on its way - like prototype in final assembly on-its-way and even then it takes 6+ years before EIS so I think 2022 is very optimistic. I see 2023/2024 as possible and I would be shocked if we saw a NMA launch before 2017. We had a really good idea of the design on the 77X in 2011 and that didn't launch until 2013. Comparatively we have essentially zero details about the NMA right now.

I think the Pratt GTF is the most probably engine at this point but certainly RR and GE will put their best forward too.

I see the NSA EIS around 2028.

tortugamon
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:41 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 10):
I think the Pratt GTF is the most probably engine at this point but certainly RR and GE will put their best forward too.

I see the NSA EIS around 2028.

As good a guess as any at this point. It may come down to when Boeing will approach delivering fewer NBs than Airbus. But with continuous MAX pips it will be hard to come up with a new design that will produce significant cash savings. And in addition to pips there will be NextGen ATC contributing to trip cost reductions (and maybe a few other unconventional adoptions such as electric taxi).
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 17633
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 10:47 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 9):
25% is huge!

Boeing is not going to even consider spending $10billion+ on NSA if it can't deliver a generational improvement in operating costs.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
WIederling
Posts: 8888
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 10:54 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 3):
I expect CFRP wings with a beer can fuselage. Boeing will be risk adverse.

Everybody laughed the A350 Mk1 out of the theater  

Do you think Boeing will ever touch a CFRP monolithic barrel section for a nontapering item again?
Murphy is an optimist
 
Okcflyer
Posts: 564
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 11:10 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:39 pm

Oil prices will have to go up significantly to justify investment in a new frame.

Until that happens, the Max and Neo will serve the new market just fine.
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:55 pm

Quoting scbriml (Reply 12):
Boeing is not going to even consider spending $10billion+ on NSA if it can't deliver a generational improvement in operating costs.

I honestly don't see how they will be able to achieve 25% over a pip'd MAX unless they go radical, design wise, like the D8. Tube and wing won't cut it otherwise to get to 25%.

Quoting Okcflyer (Reply 14):
Oil prices will have to go up significantly to justify investment in a new frame.

Until that happens, the Max and Neo will serve the new market just fine.

This chart will look even more interesting when hedges expire and Classics and MD's retirements add up...

Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
User avatar
crimsonchin
Posts: 527
Joined: Fri Feb 07, 2014 8:16 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:58 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 9):
25% is huge! To achieve that they would have to go radical... and I don't think the airline industry will be ready.

It is. But if the MAX, which is costing Boeing about $2-3bn (my own guess) is yielding 14% improvement, I can't see Boeing being ready to spend 5x that for something that will only gain a few % over their current offering.
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 12:27 am

Quoting crimsonchin (Reply 16):
It is. But if the MAX, which is costing Boeing about $2-3bn (my own guess) is yielding 14% improvement, I can't see Boeing being ready to spend 5x that for something that will only gain a few % over their current offering.

On the surface of it, it doesn't seem to make sense unless they have lost significant market share. But the further one goes out there the more variables exist.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
User avatar
Boeing778X
Topic Author
Posts: 3268
Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:55 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:00 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 7):
I can't see that Boeing is willing to spend around $10billion on NSA without being able to deliver 25% better operating costs than neo/MAX.
Quoting scbriml (Reply 12):
Boeing is not going to even consider spending $10billion+ on NSA if it can't deliver a generational improvement in operating costs.

I think the NSA requiring a 25% improvement over the 737 MAX/A320neo is a reasonable, perhaps a tad liberal estimate.

A 15% improvement, if you think about it, is a huge jump over an already highly efficient pair of types.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 7):
I have serious doubts that MOM will ever materialise.

A 757 sized aircraft made by Boeing is slowly becoming more possible, based on what I've been hearing.

If an MoM, as described now, doesn't happen, I see the need filled by a variant of the NSA.
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
KD5MDK
Posts: 805
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:05 am

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:13 am

Is an NSA capable of being so much more efficient than an upgraded A32Xneo/the MAX that it's worth the investment?
For example if it costs $15 billion to develop and sells 5000 copies, that's $3 million per plane in pure development costs. But if it sells 2500 copies, that doubles. If it costs $30 billion, that doubles. If it does both, that quadruples. Not to mention the opportunity cost of what that money could have done otherwise. How much of a premium are airlines willing to pay over either an amortized MAX, or over a 32Xneo that could have the same engines fitted that the NSA gets?
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:50 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 18):
I think the NSA requiring a 25% improvement over the 737 MAX/A320neo is a reasonable, perhaps a tad liberal estimate.

The "problem" is that the "Mk. 1" MAX or NEO will not be the baseline but the pip'd versions will be. So it is more like a 30% improvement from the current MAX or NEO.

Quoting KD5MDK (Reply 19):
Is an NSA capable of being so much more efficient than an upgraded A32Xneo/the MAX that it's worth the investment?

It comes down to $... for airlines COC... and I increasingly don't see there being a large enough delta to justify the investment.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8842
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:58 am

We have some precise info on when to expect the MoM. RR and Liebherr have created a Joint Venture to built the gears for a Ultrafan geared turbofan in the 45kn thrust range. EIS for that engine is given as 2025. So imho MoM would be coming later, 2026/2027. So launch around 2018/19.
 
User avatar
TheRedBaron
Posts: 3272
Joined: Tue Mar 29, 2005 6:17 am

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:02 am

At the rate they are making the 737, the backlog and the price they are selling.... I doubt Boeing is in ANY hurry to spend 10 billion on a better 757. Thay will see the A321 erode his market on the 200 plus pax narrow body wars, but they can sell it cheaper to get orders.and also having production slots are a good incentive.

TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
User avatar
Boeing778X
Topic Author
Posts: 3268
Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:55 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:28 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 20):
The "problem" is that the "Mk. 1" MAX or NEO will not be the baseline but the pip'd versions will be. So it is more like a 30% improvement from the current MAX or NEO.

Then if that be the case, you're right. They WOULD have to do something obscenely radical.

Next generation UHB geared turbofan, perhaps as an evolution of the LEAP-X, the new P&Ws, etc, 787 styled fuselage, wings and tail, laminar flow wing, etc., and that's one top of the new technology required for that increase.

I envision something like this:

http://www.airlinereporter.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/737X-3_AK.jpg

Perhaps with AT Winglets or something of the sort.
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 6573
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 7:02 am

I'll throw in this article to muddy the waters more...    ...

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...eplacement-is-probably-coming.aspx
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
dare100em
Posts: 275
Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2014 9:31 am

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:38 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 17):
Quoting crimsonchin (Reply 16):
It is. But if the MAX, which is costing Boeing about $2-3bn (my own guess) is yielding 14% improvement, I can't see Boeing being ready to spend 5x that for something that will only gain a few % over their current offering.

On the surface of it, it doesn't seem to make sense unless they have lost significant market share. But the further one goes out there the more variables exist.

This is correct. It's not a one-time investment. They basically invest in a new platform with several derivates and a lifetime AT LEAST until 2045, maybe even 2060. You can't judge the investment on the very first derivate.

How would that work for the A330/340, the 737-100 or the 747-100?

Furthermore, as the linked article from DEVILFISH correctly states engineering ressources will drive a new plane to some degree. That doesn't mean they'll just do "something", they will OFClook closely WHERE to invets but the MOM size seems a logical choice and has a very good chance at this point.

[Edited 2015-12-14 00:45:52]

[Edited 2015-12-14 00:46:30]

[Edited 2015-12-14 00:50:26]
 
WIederling
Posts: 8888
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:04 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 18):
A 15% improvement, if you think about it, is a huge jump over an already highly efficient pair of types.

The absolute step in relation to the existing combo is less of interest than
the delta that can be achieved over what the competitor can gain by detail improvements.

i.e. as long as Airbus can just tack on another "engine N" and participate in available improvements efficiently
the investment for a new type will come short on value created.
Murphy is an optimist
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 12:34 pm

Reply 24 Devilfish.
Good article thx - but also the additional one that was attached
http://aviationweek.com/commercial-a...visits-past-hunt-737757-successors

I can see the 757/767 model re emerging.With MOM first with alot of commonality with what will become the NSA.
Considering the priorities in 15/20 years time there will be other major factors Boeing will cater for/ introduce.
One (as above) will be the possible fact that fuel cost is no longer the be all and end all (although obviously still important).So

1.Electric motor ground movements.All electric architecture for uber low maintenance.
2.Noise noise noise.It will have to have a really low noise signature.(Consumers around airports are now a powerful and effective lobby)
3.CO2. It will have to have a really,really low carbon signature.One can envisage landing costs being measured on the basis of 'carbon' and human environmental pollution (see latest on Heathrow for example).
4.Extra wide doors for faster planing and de planing? (Its bound to be a single aisle).Turnround times a critical factor.Replenishing the aircraft speedily too will be critical.

5.Wing Vs Engines? One can see a movement with the 779 to a lower wing loading (its a much bigger 777 but with less powerful engines).
They are keeping/improving efficiency by raising the aspect ratio.This is achieved via folding wings.They are bound to do the same thing now that they have (will have) 'cracked' this new technology.This will allow the engines to be quieter on T/O and Landing.
6.Steeper 5 degree landings as standard - That appears to be the future too.
I guess MOM will be 250 to max 275 (one class) seats? Easy TATL range.

The NSA will need a new wing for sure.But a huge carry over from the MOM.
Launch 2018/19?
Yup very likley IMHO.Otherwise they will loose a shed load of orders to the A321NEO LR (IMHO).
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 1:36 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 27):

Well said parapente. You echo many of my same thoughts.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 11):
It may come down to when Boeing will approach delivering fewer NBs than Airbus. But with continuous MAX pips it will be hard to come up with a new design that will produce significant cash savings. And in addition to pips there will be NextGen ATC contributing to trip cost reductions (and maybe a few other unconventional adoptions such as electric taxi).

Well I think the writing may already be on the wall there. The A321 vs 739 matchup makes it clear that Boeing will have a harder time selling/delivering the Max at a similar rate to the NEO in the medium term. In the near term it won't matter all that much as there are plenty of 738s to produce but I don't think Boeing will be content with this situation.

In reality I see a confluence of circumstances leading to a MoM/NSA development in the 2020s: (1) 757/767/A330 replacement cycles (2) Increased Fragmentation of airline routes, (3) 739 vs A321 competition, (4) Engineering Resource availability, (5) Desire to share development costs to improve economics, (6) Engine technology improvements (GTF, CMCs, etc) (7) 787s inefficiency on short routes.

All signs point in one direction for me.

tortugamon
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:24 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 27):
but also the additional one that was attached
http://aviationweek.com/commercial-a...ssors

One of the things you come away with is that Boeing nor the airlines know what they want beyond general terms and moving targets. Also, Boeing is pretty adamant that there is no step change until near 2030.

Quoting parapente (Reply 27):
Considering the priorities in 15/20 years time there will be other major factors Boeing will cater for/ introduce.
One (as above) will be the possible fact that fuel cost is no longer the be all and end all (although obviously still important).So

15-20 years is a long time, particularly at the pace of how a lot of things are changing. An issue is how many of the potential items will be adopted on pip'd NBs.

Another item which I think will happen is additional consolidation. As I posted earlier, it seems that airlines are the only major industry where there are relatively so many players. The proposed merger of DuPont and Dow Corning is pretty amazing given the size and scope of those two companies. And if they can merge, I think that a few more airlines could also eventually merge.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 28):
Well I think the writing may already be on the wall there. The A321 vs 739 matchup makes it clear that Boeing will have a harder time selling/delivering the Max at a similar rate to the NEO in the medium term.

What is the medium term?

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 28):
All signs point in one direction for me.
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 28):
(3) 739 vs A321 competition

The 739 vs A321 is the most compelling case. However, there are mitigating factors at play. It will be interesting how it all plays out.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:47 pm

Quoting planemaker (Reply 29):
What is the medium term?

7-10 years. It seems like in the near term the production rates of both programs will be similar.

tortugamon
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

RE: Boeing NSA/MoM Launch Dates/EIS?

Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:41 pm

Reply 29.
Another item which I think will happen is additional consolidation. As I posted earlier, it seems that airlines are the only major industry where there are relatively so many players. The proposed merger of DuPont and Dow Corning is pretty amazing given the size and scope of those two companies. And if they can merge, I think that a few more airlines could also eventually merge.

I fully endorse this.I feel sure it will come - although more on consolidation within longhaul sector,however MOM may well (partly) be in 'longhaul'.

BTW possibly irrelevant. When do we think that the 747 line will finally stop? Can be that far away. I say it as it obviously frees up a spare area for new aircraft production (plus the spare employment issue of course).

Other little thought.
We all know that 'the tube' as in tube and wing is 100% deadweight.But an efficient way to package people.But the lighter and lighter you make that tube the less of a reason there is to 'moonshot' (Read BWB etc).If you can lace carbon fiber with graphene (I believe you can) then it just gets lighter again.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos