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Cubsrule
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:18 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
How about a more than marginal reduction in LGA-DCA, lol. ...or ORD.

Who's flying 50-seaters on LGA-ORD?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
usairways85
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:49 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 33):
For years, many insisted that US had to have all these flights to PHL because they were so important for connecting. I always believed they were just slot squatting because US has more slots than they could profitably use. I think the answer is known now.

Not really. The flights are full with connections with very little O&D, but that was more or less necessary on PMUS that only had CLT and PHL as hubs between the East and PHX. Now with DFW & ORD in between, and JFK added in for Int'l connections, PHL is far less necessary. Was it a little slot squatting, yes probably, but it is also just optimizing the network.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 4:17 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 50):
Quoting enilria (Reply 48):
How about a more than marginal reduction in LGA-DCA, lol. ...or ORD.

Who's flying 50-seaters on LGA-ORD?

Huh? Flying 50 seaters to the hinterland prevents slots from being available for LCC A320s on routes like DCA/LGA-ORD and DCA-LGA. That would bring more than the marginal reduction in fares you mention.
 
FSDan
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 4:59 pm

Quoting mpdpilot (Reply 42):
Those are big holes. Though I would prefer more mainline. I would also like to see AA get the ERJs off of MSN-DFW. It baffles me that AA can't fill 3 CRJ-900s on this route or even put an A319 on it.

Things are moving in the right direction! I actually just took a look at the schedules for February and DFW-MSN is 3x CR9 just like you asked for  . There are also a few CR7s in the mix on MSN-ORD, but on that 20 minute flight ERJs aren't so bad anyway.

Quoting mpdpilot (Reply 42):
I'd also love to see something to the west coast, but that probably won't happen anytime soon.

I think the best chance would be if UA decided they could make SFO-MSN work year round on an E75. Other than that, UA usually adds a few flights in either direction on SFO-MSN and LAX-MSN on 737s around Epic's UGM in September, but the prices are astronomical...
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
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rangercarp
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:03 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN DAL-ICT MAY 1.7>0 JUN 1.9>0 JUL 1.9>0
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN PHX-ICT MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0

It looks like WN is replacing DAL to ICT with PHX

Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN MDW-ICT MAY 1.8>0 JUN 1.9>0 JUL 1.9>0
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN ICT-STL MAY 0>1.9 JUN 0>1.9 JUL 0>1.8

And MDW with STL

Seems an odd move, especially on the PHX end. I wonder if this means ICT is not working for WN?
iwgbtp!
 
Cubsrule
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:10 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 52):
Huh? Flying 50 seaters to the hinterland prevents slots from being available for LCC A320s on routes like DCA/LGA-ORD and DCA-LGA. That would bring more than the marginal reduction in fares you mention.

What LFCs do you contend would start DCA-ORD/LGA in a world where LFCs had more slots? DCA-LGA seems like a loser against the shuttles and Acela. The market is not healthy to start with. And, DCA and LGA already have scads of LFC service to Chicago.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
dfwjim1
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:23 pm

Good news-WN is adding back OAK to RNO!
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:14 pm

Quoting rangercarp (Reply 54):
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN DAL-ICT MAY 1.7>0 JUN 1.9>0 JUL 1.9>0
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN PHX-ICT MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0

It looks like WN is replacing DAL to ICT with PHX
Quoting rangercarp (Reply 54):
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN MDW-ICT MAY 1.8>0 JUN 1.9>0 JUL 1.9>0
Quoting enilria (Reply 1):
WN ICT-STL MAY 0>1.9 JUN 0>1.9 JUL 0>1.8

And MDW with STL
Quoting rangercarp (Reply 54):
I wonder if this means ICT is not working for WN?

Both those moves were announced a month ago. It clearly means ICT is not working well and I doubt STL is a better choice.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 55):
What LFCs do you contend would start DCA-ORD/LGA in a world where LFCs had more slots?

B6/F9/NK

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 55):
DCA-LGA seems like a loser against the shuttles and Acela.

At current fares yes, try at $99.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 55):
And, DCA and LGA already have scads of LFC service to Chicago.

If by "scads" you mean the two daily roundtrips from LGA to ORD on NK and nothing from DCA to ORD. MDW is not ORD. That's why F9 moved from MDW where they were not doing well to ORD where they seem to be doing great. NK only left DCA because the few slots they had were worth a lot to sell and they couldn't expand.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14635
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:23 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 57):
If by "scads" you mean the two daily roundtrips from LGA to ORD on NK and nothing from DCA to ORD. MDW is not ORD. That's why F9 moved from MDW where they were not doing well to ORD where they seem to be doing great. NK only left DCA because the few slots they had were worth a lot to sell and they couldn't expand.

No, MDW is not ORD. But MDW service competes with ORD service.

Quoting enilria (Reply 57):
At current fares yes, try at $99.

How much demand is there at $99 that isn't already taking the bus?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
jetblue1965
Posts: 5050
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:30 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 58):
How much demand is there at $99 that isn't already taking the bus?

Add to that - Amtrak Regional (3hr20 WAS Union - NYC Penn) is as low as $49 ow a.i. if you book during really off-peak times, and is (usually) safer than traveling on the highway.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 58):
No, MDW is not ORD. But MDW service competes with ORD service.
MDW is only competitive for those heading for the Loop. CHI's suburban wealth and business distribution skews north and northeast, both of which favor ORD. To those, MDW can feel like Dulles or Mirabel.

[Edited 2015-12-14 10:31:48]
 
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rangercarp
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:33 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 57):
Both those moves were announced a month ago. It clearly means ICT is not working well and I doubt STL is a better choice.

I missed that announcement. I can't see STL doing better, and PHX seems to be grasping at straws. What surprises me is that DAL is not working as DFW has always "appeared" to be a great performer for AA.
iwgbtp!
 
Cubsrule
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:43 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 59):
MDW is only competitive for those heading for the Loop. CHI's suburban wealth and business distribution skews north and northeast, both of which favor ORD. To those, MDW can feel like Dulles or Mirabel.

I have family on the North Shore, and MDW can be competitive depending on exact arrival and departure times. The airport experience is enough quicker than it can compensate for some of the added drive time.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
masseybrown
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:43 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 55):
DCA-LGA seems like a loser against the shuttles and Acela.

WaPo recently said Amtrak now has 70% of the WAS-NYC market.
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:48 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 58):
No, MDW is not ORD. But MDW service competes with ORD service.

You brought MDW into the conversation. I said ORD from the beginning. The markets are quite different.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 58):
How much demand is there at $99 that isn't already taking the bus?

Really? That's like denying the existence of Spirit. Demand multiplies with much lower price. Hopefully we will get to see.

Quoting rangercarp (Reply 60):
What surprises me is that DAL is not working

I think ICT-DAL probably worked OK, but they are very constrained at DAL and they thought something would work better.
 
jetblue1965
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:49 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 61):

I have family on the North Shore, and MDW can be competitive depending on exact arrival and departure times. The airport experience is enough quicker than it can compensate for some of the added drive time.

Do you mean Lake Forest IL or actually North Shore IL ? From NorthShore it's 52mins to ORD and 1:20mins to MDW, from LakeForest it's 30min ORD and 60min MDW, so whether that's "competitive" is somewhat subjective I guess.

* Times quoted are Google Maps no traffic scenario

[Edited 2015-12-14 10:49:53]
 
Cubsrule
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:53 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 63):
Really? That's like denying the existence of Spirit. Demand multiplies with much lower price. Hopefully we will get to see.

NK isn't flying ORD-IND or IAH-SAT. DCA-LGA is different because flying doesn't save much time for many passengers. What incentive is there for someone who is taking the bus or train for $99 or less to switch to flying?

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 64):
Do you mean Lake Forest IL or actually North Shore IL ? From NorthShore it's 52mins to ORD and 1:20mins to MDW, from LakeForest it's 30min ORD and 60min MDW, so whether that's "competitive" is somewhat subjective I guess.

Various places between about Wilmette and Lake Forest. The drive time difference is 20-30 minutes without traffic, and MDW can be that much quicker at the airport.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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enilria
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:58 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 65):
NK isn't flying ORD-IND or IAH-SAT. DCA-LGA is different because flying doesn't save much time for many passengers. What incentive is there for someone who is taking the bus or train for $99 or less to switch to flying?

B6 would be the obvious carrier for DCA-LGA and I'm sure they would lower prices a lot...plus I've heard them in presentations say that they think they would be very successful if the slot environment allowed them to operate a "Shuttle". The problem is that each roundtrip requires two sets of slots and that is nearly an impossible mission.

NK/F9 on DCA-ORD would do well, but B6 might as well on either DCA or LGA to ORD.
 
chicawgo
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:05 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 61):
I have family on the North Shore, and MDW can be competitive depending on exact arrival and departure times. The airport experience is enough quicker than it can compensate for some of the added drive time.
Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 65):
Various places between about Wilmette and Lake Forest. The drive time difference is 20-30 minutes without traffic, and MDW can be that much quicker at the airport.

This really is just not true anymore. When MDW was an old school house before 9/11 you could show up 15 minutes before flight and be fine. But now with the small consolidated security it's often much longer than many of the terminals at ORD. And walking to the end of B at MDW is not breeze either. Additionally, just entering the terminal from Cicero during busy times can be horrendous. The traffic is often backed up all the way to Cicero just to get on the ramp with no other way to access.

So this idea of MDW being so easy is just not as true anymore.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:35 pm

Quoting chicawgo (Reply 67):
But now with the small consolidated security it's often much longer than many of the terminals at ORD. And walking to the end of B at MDW is not breeze either. Additionally, just entering the terminal from Cicero during busy times can be horrendous. The traffic is often backed up all the way to Cicero just to get on the ramp with no other way to access.

A few points here:

1) I've never been backed up in the Precheck line at MDW. The old priority line, which merged with the employee line over by the Customs exit, was horrendous. And in the regular lines, TSA seems to be doing a better job matching staffing to demand in the last 12-18 months.

2) The end of B at MDW is no worse than Terminal 1 to F14 or Terminal 3 to G20 at ORD.

3) That's why I don't drive on Cicero . . . I'm coming into town and renting a car, so there is no need to drive on Cicero at any point in the process.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
chicawgo
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Tue Dec 15, 2015 5:13 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 68):

1) I've never been backed up in the Precheck line at MDW

Agree completely but you're completely changing the context. The regular lines can be really bad. It's great that you have precheck but many don't.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 68):

2) The end of B at MDW is no worse than Terminal 1 to F14 or Terminal 3 to G20 at ORD.


?? This was exactly my point! Depending on where you're going it can be as long as ORD! Are you using this to refute me?

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 68):

3) That's why I don't drive on Cicero . . . I'm coming into town and renting a car, so there is no need to drive on Cicero at any point in the process.

Again, good for you if you know some secret to enter and exit without going on Cicero. But 99% of people do. So I'm not really sure the point of what you're saying.
 
nkops
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RE: OAG Changes 12/18/2015:AA+DCACLE/MSP.CLTMSN,ORDORF

Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:47 am

Quoting Lesfalls (Reply 34):

They used to have IAG-FRG on sale , so I dont know why it isn't showing now. I know they have recently acquired some E145's, but seem to be having some issues with them. They seem to run a good operation with the 120's.
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