georgiabill
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Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:06 pm

In the US I can see SA)">AA ordering the 778 eventually to replace their 773ER'S and perhaps 6-10 779'S for routes that require more seats. SA)">UA may depending on how their A350's work for them. SA)">DL I am surprised they haven't ordered the 773ER.
For the rest of the America's I can see AC looking at the 778, perhaps Latam might look at the 778 if routes need the capacity and range. AM as much as I would like to see, I think they will operate 787 family for their longhaul flights. However if routes mature to the point they need more capacity they may look at the 778.
Europe I think BA, AF, KL are candidates for the 778 779 family. LH might order additional aircraft and LX might eventually order the 778 to replace their 773ER'S. TK I think will order both the 778 and 779.
Africa, Ethiopian has indicated they are studying the 778 and 779. SA longshot might look 778.
Asia KE, Air China, China Southern perhaps Thai.
Oceanic Qantas perhaps NZ the 778 depending on 787 performance.

Just my two cents.
 
LSZH34
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:33 pm

Quoting georgiabill (Thread starter):
I think BA, AF, KL are candidates for the 778 779 family.

Most likely yes. My top 3 canditates aswell.

Quoting georgiabill (Thread starter):
LX might eventually order the 778 to replace their 773ER'S

No way. The B77W's coming are brand new plus they don't need the range. If you are referring to replace the last A340s, that's probably going to be more B77W, because they need them ASAP. No B777-8 or -9 for LX.

Quoting georgiabill (Thread starter):
TK I think will order both the 778 and 779

Hmm, difficult. A350-1000 or B777-9 it's gonna be IMHO. Guessing on a split order.

Quoting georgiabill (Thread starter):
SA longshot might look 778

I thought they are moving towards Airbus. A359 in the lead IMHO.

Quoting georgiabill (Thread starter):
KE, Air China, China Southern perhaps Thai

All except TG. They are not in a place to order brand new aircraft and they already got the A359 coming.
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:36 pm

There is almost no chance any U.S. carrier will order the 777-8.

AA is probably the most likely of the US3s to order the 777-9, and I can see them ordering the type in the mid term.
AC is also a possibility. I don't see DL ordering the type, and I'm not sure about UA.

KE is almost a,given.

Some might disagree with IAG, particularly BA, ordering the 777X, especially with the A350-1000s and the current A380s, but I still see them ordering it.

There are quite a few airlines I see ordering the 777X, but who's next? I'll go out on a limb and say either ET or TK is next.
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SonomaFlyer
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:43 pm

UA is unlikely to given they have 35 firm orders for the 35J plus options. They have few routes that could take advantage of the 778's characteristics and they frankly don't need an a/c as large at the 779 given how many hubs they fly internationally. (LAX, SFO, DEN, ORD, IAH, IAD, EWR).

AA has a massive order book as it stands. They are completing their 77W order and have the 359 coming shortly. They too fly internationally from lots of hubs (LAX, DFW, ORD, JFK, MIA, RDU (mostly seasonal))

DL is also unlikely given their management culture with their fleet. They also leverage their joint ventures heavily and try to shunt flying onto other carriers with lower cost structures to avoid having to fly the routes on DL metal. As a result, they are phasing out the 744s and plan on flying a/c that are at or below 300 seats going forward. They can use VS, AF, KL, KE etc to do their heavy lifting while banking money on their codes.
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Sun Dec 13, 2015 11:52 pm

NZ will likely order before EIS to replace their 77Ws (which will be 17 years old by then)
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 12:27 am

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 3):
UA is unlikely to given they have 35 firm orders for the 35J plus options.

I don't get this - the 779 is, what, 40-50 seats larger than the 35J with more freight capacity. Unless UA areseriously downsizing, I think there'd be room for 779s in their fleet alongside the 35Js.
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 12:35 am

Quoting aerokiwi (Reply 5):
Unless UA areseriously downsizing, I think there'd be room for 779s i

UA is downsizing. There are many potential 779 orders, but UA is unlikely.

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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 1:17 am

Quoting georgiabill (Thread starter):
perhaps Latam might look at the 778 if routes need the capacity and range.

Where would LATAM need such a beast, 777-8 ? Lima to Tokyo ? if it could be done but its probably too far.
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 1:21 am

Quoting georgiabill (Thread starter):
LH might order additional aircraft and LX might eventually order the 778 to replace their 773ER'S.

Considering Swiss has not even got the 777 its early to start talking about their replacements which would be after 2027.
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 1:25 am

OK, I'll finally bite: What exactly does "SA)">AA" and "SA)">UA" mean? To make it even more confusing, I'm pretty sure I've seen similar combinations of symbols referring to South African Airways.
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 1:35 am

Quoting georgiabill (Thread starter):
In the US I can see SA)">AA ordering the 778 eventually to replace their 773ER'S and perhaps 6-10 779'S for routes that require more seats.

The first AA 777-300ER is just 2 years old so they still have lots of trips to LHR and Hong Kong plus now Kingford Smith in Sydney, if I were an airplane I could live just going to those places. The 787-9 is probably the central airplane to AA long haul strategy as its not too large and not too small.

The interesting to see part of the PMAA is the A350-900 from the USair side, will they fill in for the A330 from CLT & PHL to Europe? Could they find a mission not foreseen like LAX to Brisbane and Melbourne ? With they get Brazilian tans flying to GRU from Miami? Loving all the options AA has with their long haul portfolio and developments to come? Doha or Abu Dhabi ? He why not.

Quoting georgiabill (Thread starter):
Europe I think BA, AF, KL are candidates for the 778 779 family

Air France has a large 777 fleet and we have heard zilch about their replacements. The first 77W arrived in 2004.

While BA has ordered almost everything like A380, 787-9 and A350-1000 to replace 747's they have nada toward some almost 20 year old 777's. More 787-9 and 777-9 would be nice at BA.
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:03 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 6):
UA is downsizing. There are many potential 779 orders, but UA is unlikely.

But 5 years down the track? Sure today they may be retiring 744s but presumably organic traffic growth on existing routes will eventually warrant something more, unless there's a planned increase in frequency?
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:04 am

BA is likely pondering their 777 replacement order. It's a big fleet and it wouldn't surprise me to see a split order between A and B.
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:14 am

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 12):

BA is likely pondering their 777 replacement order. It's a big fleet and it wouldn't surprise me to see a split order between A and B.

Willie Walsh seems to have a goal of Airbusing the whole BA fleet which he has accomplished at Iberia and Aer Lingus (what Boeing plane does IB have). Lord King had it right, speed dial to Seattle.

For European fleet and super Jumbos Airbus but for a variety of long haul jets its a Boeing or The Brits are not going.
 
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rotating14
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:15 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
Willie Walsh seems to have a goal of Airbusing the whole BA fleet which he has accomplished at Iberia and Aer Lingus (what Boeing plane does IB have). Lord King had it right, speed dial to Seattle.

Aer Lingus and Iberia have an all Airbus fleet. They would naturally order from Airbus.
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:48 am

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 14):

And Vueling too  

But IAG is pretty set on ordering more A350s rather than B777x.
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:56 am

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 13):
Willie Walsh seems to have a goal of Airbusing the whole BA fleet which he has accomplished at Iberia and Aer Lingus (what Boeing plane does IB have). Lord King had it right, speed dial to Seattle.

Walsh was also responsible for ordering forty-two B787's.

Quoting boeing773ER (Reply 15):
But IAG is pretty set on ordering more A350s rather than B777x.

How do you know that? IMHO the B779 has a role to play between the A35J and A380.
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:58 am

Quoting LSZH34 (Reply 1):

Quoting georgiabill (Thread starter):
I think BA, AF, KL are candidates for the 778 779 family.
Most likely yes. My top 3 canditates aswell.

AF isn't even taking its 789s on order for the next few years so thinking they may order 778/9s is a little bit premature...
A
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 4:11 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 2):
There is almost no chance any U.S. carrier will order the 777-8.

Disagree completely. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see all 3 order it.

AA/UA because it's near the same size as their 77Ws, which will eventually need replacing. DL as it can do the JNB-ATL leg similarly to their 77Ls.

It just depends on what they feel suits them best for their longer hauls. Any of the three could just as easily swing toward the A359L as well. Or heck, can do both.

Just depends on how the two models work in reality, as opposed to paper.
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rotating14
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 4:46 am

Quoting boeing773ER (Reply 15):

My point is that a carrier who already flies one certain OEM wouldn't likely switch to another OEM. Thanks for the input. Yes, Vueling as well.

PS They haven't ordered the 778/9 yet so how are they ordering less of something they have yet to order?
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 4:51 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 18):
Disagree completely. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see all 3 order it.

I respect that opinion, and it would be very nice, of course.

However, let me break it down.

AA: Does do ULH flights, their longest being AA137, DFW-HKG, which is done by 777-300ER. I think, if and when AA goes for the 777X, it's going to be for the -9, and here's why I think that.

-They are one of the 777 carriers who utilizes 10Y, which will be the default seating for the 777X.
-The 777-9 would build on growth to those premium, high traffic cities currently flown by the 777-300ERs, including LHR, HKG, GRU, etc, and perhaps free up the -300ERs for other expanding markets.
-The slight increase of range over the -300ER would perhaps allow even more markets.
-Fleet commonality.
-Eventual replacements for other types (i.e. 777-200ER)

AA was the first U.S. carrier to use the -300ER, and they've done it very well, and the -9 is not that much bigger. They don't seem to need the -8, and ULH routes that are otherwise used by the 777 can be used with the 787-9.

For UA, if I had to choose who gets the 777-8, it would be them, and they could use the type for their ULH routes, and the talks of going to SIN confirms they need a ULH type. UA has options for 40 A350s, and that's on top of the 35 -1000s they have on order. They could easily convert 10-12 of those options to firm orders for A350-900ULHs, and they could get them relatively quickly. What I guess the 777-8 has going for it is its payload and commonality with the fleet of 777s already. The -8 certainly has the range, the payload and the premium product potential, but I'm not convinced UA would be willing to wait 5+ years to get that type.

For DL, no go on the 777X, period. The A330s and A350s they ordered are almost made to order for an airline like DL, and given their current planning, I'm sure they don't anything bigger than a 772 in their ranks.

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 12):
BA is likely pondering their 777 replacement order. It's a big fleet and it wouldn't surprise me to see a split order between A and B.

BA is going to be an interesting 777X story to watch. Welsh did state that the -9 was "a good fit" for the network, and that was a few months before IAG ordered 18 A35Js for BA.

While I won't be surprised if they do order it, I'll be even more surprised if they don't, because the 777-9 does fit rather comfortably between the A35J and A380.

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 3):
UA is unlikely to given they have 35 firm orders for the 35J plus options. They have few routes that could take advantage of the 778's characteristics and they frankly don't need an a/c as large at the 779 given how many hubs they fly internationally. (LAX, SFO, DEN, ORD, IAH, IAD, EWR).
Quoting aerokiwi (Reply 5):
I don't get this - the 779 is, what, 40-50 seats larger than the 35J with more freight capacity. Unless UA areseriously downsizing, I think there'd be room for 779s in their fleet alongside the 35Js.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 6):
UA is downsizing. There are many potential 779 orders, but UA is unlikely

We'll continue to watch UA. At this point, I'd label them as an 'unlikely' 777X customer.

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 3):

AA has a massive order book as it stands. They are completing their 77W order and have the 359 coming shortly. They too fly internationally from lots of hubs (LAX, DFW, ORD, JFK, MIA, RDU (mostly seasonal))

Not so big, compared to the others. I'm guessing most of those A350-900s will be at pmUS hubs, and the 777-300ER order is nearly filled.

I believe AA could use 15-20 777-9s in the mid term, for reasons as stated above.

Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 3):

DL is also unlikely given their management culture with their fleet.

  
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RickNRoll
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:47 am

Quoting boeing773ER (Reply 15):
But IAG is pretty set on ordering more A350s rather than B777x.

If you want to replace the 77W then the A350 is designed to perfectly fit that role. It all depends on if you want to upgauge at the same time.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 7:18 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 20):
AA was the first U.S. carrier to use the -300ER, and they've done it very well, and the -9 is not that much bigger. They don't seem to need the -8, and ULH routes that are otherwise used by the 777 can be used with the 787-9.

Two things:
1) they aren't mutually exclusive... the carrier can order both -8 and -9, and tailor them to required uses.
2) the 789 has doesn't even have the payload uplift of the 77W over range, so there's no guarantee that it can do such routes with the revenue potential that AA would want.


Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 20):
I'm sure they don't anything bigger than a 772 in their ranks.

You're "sure" based on what, though?
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seahawk
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 7:26 am

Considering that the 777-8/9 are so unique in their capabilities, I think no major airline will be able to do without a fleet of those.
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 12:36 pm

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 14):
Aer Lingus and Iberia have an all Airbus fleet. They would naturally order from Airbus.

Why ? These two airlines had many Boeing over the years and an very strong argument could be made a 767 would have been an excellent 747 for Aer Lingus. One of the reasons Aer Lingus got A330 is that Air Inter had some cheap A330 to lease which the irish airline acquired. IF the Irish airline ever goes to Asia a 787 would be the right plane, an A350 may be too big for an Aer Lingus Asian flight.

Before the merger with BA( and IAG's creation) IB lost tons of money flying A340's to many of the cities on Latin America IB traditionally flew. Santo Domingo and Havana were among the discontinued and eventually restarted. Miracles happened when the A330 took over.
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 1:39 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 23):
Considering that the 777-8/9 are so unique in their capabilities, I think no major airline will be able to do without a fleet of those.

At least until Airbus moves in that space - which seems more and more likely.
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 1:41 pm

Quoting georgiabill (Thread starter):
AA ordering the 778 eventually to replace their 773ER'S

Does anyone expect AA to replace their 77Ws in fewer than 20 years from now? I don't. By 2035 I think there will be new aircraft available.

tortugamon
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:31 pm

Boeing expects 777X orders from India in 2-3 years

Quote:
“So the 777X will be the longer story. We keep them briefed on what the X can do especially on the significant fuel burn savings, lower maintenance costs, interiors and technology for IFE. Now when the competition starts flying those… they will have to keep up,” says Keskar (VP sales, Asia Pacific and India).

“But in everything there is an optimal time for replacement. You can’t get rid of a widebody in six years, the economics just won’t work. My feeling is they will come into discussions in 2-3 years and then order at that time.”
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:04 pm

It always seems like SQ orders two or three of everything. They may not keep them long but they do buy them. Witness the 727, 757, A310, A345, etc.
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JAAlbert
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 3:46 pm

I realize that we have a number of years before the 777X family enters into service, but I am still surprised other airlines haven't placed orders yet. We had a flurry upon launch, but since that time nothing. Are the other airlines simply waiting until a point closer to EIS, or is something else going on?
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 4:01 pm

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 29):
I realize that we have a number of years before the 777X family enters into service, but I am still surprised other airlines haven't placed orders yet. We had a flurry upon launch, but since that time nothing. Are the other airlines simply waiting until a point closer to EIS, or is something else going on?

They got the NH order, the QR top up order, and the 10 unidentified order all since launch. 6 customers is probably all they want for the first 12-18 months of EIS to limit the number of variables. That means ~2022 deliveries for new customers. I don't know many airlines that want to immediately fork over ~$20 Million in cash per plane just for the right to receive an aircraft 6-7 years from now. Many of the big orders are out of the way so even two years from now I wouldn't expect delivery windows of new orders to be that different than they are now. Might as well wait until crystal balls become more clear.

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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 4:32 pm

The 778/9 seems to be the right bird at the wrong time (akin to the 380 in that way). The ME3 need it, because they're growing at rates no one could have imagined, but the rest of the world seems very comfortable with their 77W and 787/350. It'll be interesting to see how the program continues, with regard to the order book, because the program hasn't seen a firm order (outside of ANA) since the launch of the program.

It's easy to pick on the A380 when your planes are selling like hotcakes... the 778/9 are not at the moment.
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rotating14
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:40 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 24):
Why ? These two airlines had many Boeing over the years and an very strong argument could be made a 767 would have been an excellent 747 for Aer Lingus. One of the reasons Aer Lingus got A330 is that Air Inter had some cheap A330 to lease which the irish airline acquired. IF the Irish airline ever goes to Asia a 787 would be the right plane, an A350 may be too big for an Aer Lingus Asian flight.

Keyword being "had". One of the bullets on the Boeing PowerPoint to either Aer Lingus and Iberia will never be - you had us in the past. The past is irrelevant to buying planes if the needs of said airline are not those when they "had" Boeing aircraft.
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:05 pm

Quoting georgiabill (Thread starter):
AM as much as I would like to see, I think they will operate 787 family for their longhaul flights. However if routes mature to the point they need more capacity they may look at the 778.

I agree. The 789 will be the largest aircraft in AM's fleet in the foreseeable future. However, with the new MEX becoming operational towards 2020, and the Mexican economy growing, AM might see a business case for larger jets. Since AM is a die-hard Boeing fan, they would set their sights on the 77X family. As always with AM, high-altitude performance would be a key consideration in that scenario.
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:50 pm

I am not sure. In the 80's and 90's, American fleets did very well with large fleets of single aircraft(DC-10, MD-11, L1011). I think with the versatility and range of the B787 family and A350 family, that these aircraft may take the lion share. The 777 family will be used for airlines with good capacity of passengers/with limited gates. Of course the middle east and Asian airlines will pick them up. Other airlines may use the 787-10 and the 350-10 instead.
My guess would be that the follow may pick up a few: KLM, BA, AA, UA(if they like the ones they have ordered), AC, and AF, but it will be a while before that happens.
 
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 7:21 pm

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 4):
NZ will likely order before EIS to replace their 77Ws (which will be 17 years old by then)

Weren't they looking at replacing the 772 in the same order? they have already ruled out the 787-10.

Although would 2020 be to late for the current fleet of 772 being that they are all mid-2000's builds.
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 7:49 pm

Quoting georgiabill (Thread starter):
AA ordering the 778 eventually to replace their 773ER'

That's not going to happen. Any 777Xs ordered by AA aren't going to be replacing 77Ws.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 22):
Two things:
1) they aren't mutually exclusive... the carrier can order both -8 and -9, and tailor them to required uses.
2) the 789 has doesn't even have the payload uplift of the 77W over range, so there's no guarantee that it can do such routes with the revenue potential that AA would want.

No, I understand that, but the point I'm trying to convey is that AA's longest flight is handled comfortably by the 777-300ER, while the 777-9 has slightly more range. I guess if AA could find routes that could warrent the 777-8, they could go for it. Will they? For now, I doubt it.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 22):
You're "sure" based on what, though?

Just look how DL is planning their fleet? 747-400s are going soon and they are investing in tons of A330s and A350s.

I imagine the A350 will eventual replace the 18 777s at DL.
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:38 pm

Quoting zkncj (Reply 35):
Although would 2020 be to late for the current fleet of 772 being that they are all mid-2000's builds.

Not really. 20 years for a well maintained aircraft is nothing. That said I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a few more 789's on their books with some of the older 77E being retired late decade with a shortish gap before 778 EIS. I also expect at least 1 more 77W to be added to NZ fleet in the next year or two so between the 789, 5x 77E and 8x 77W they should be covered.
Post 778/9 introduction NZ should have a long haul fleet as follows:
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8x 778
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:18 pm

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 21):
If you want to replace the 77W then the A350 is designed to perfectly fit that role. It all depends on if you want to upgauge at the same time.

IAG have 18 35J to be delivered to BA in 2018 and 18 options....what routes are they going to use the 779 on?
 
zkncj
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:53 pm

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 37):
Post 778/9 introduction NZ should have a long haul fleet as follows:
16x 789
8x 779
8x 778

I do wonder if they will go with an single 777 type? the 772 are currently getting to small for some routes, and with the 77W currently only have 40-60 more seats is it worth two sub fleets? or makes sense for 16x 779, along with the 16x 789 for the smaller low yielding end of the market.

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 37):
Not really. 20 years for a well maintained aircraft is nothing.

Don't think they would want to repeat the 763 over again surely? They seem to be going with the 12 year trend with Jets.
 
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aerorobnz
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:00 am

Quoting zkncj (Reply 35):

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 4):
NZ will likely order before EIS to replace their 77Ws (which will be 17 years old by then)

Weren't they looking at replacing the 772 in the same order?

I expect it might be announced at the same time. but it might take 6-8 years to implement from start to finish..
The -10 was ruled out on preliminary specification. The actual aircraft is not flying, so I would not say it was a case of never but unlikely.

Quoting zkncj (Reply 39):
the 772 are currently getting to small for some routes

The 772 has a problem in the NZ fleet
1) It is the same capacity as the more efficient 787-9
2) The 777-300 more efficiently transports more people/cargo for more or less the same operational cost.

I don't expect the 777-200 fleet will see out the decade.

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 37):
16x 789
8x 779
8x 778

I don't expect that many 777s. The old 772s will likely not be replaced by more 777s, but more 787-9s. Using the same logic as zkncj and you have used I expect a fleet of 20+ 787-9s and 77W replacement value for the 77X gen aircraft. The 787-9 is 90% of the 772 for 70% of the cost. The 777-8,777-9 is for the big markets with the big cargo load and long range.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
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Zkpilot
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:18 am

Quoting zkncj (Reply 39):
I do wonder if they will go with an single 777 type? the 772 are currently getting to small for some routes, and with the 77W currently only have 40-60 more seats is it worth two sub fleets? or makes sense for 16x 779, along with the 16x 789 for the smaller low yielding end of the market.

There would be a reasonably large capacity gap between the 789 and 779. The 778 and 779 will be virtually the same from a fleet perspective with crew able to operate both interchangeably. The main benefit of the 778 will be it's range.... thinking AKL-NYC direct and AKL-GRU for example.
Remember that the 779 will be be 744 sized in terms of passenger numbers

Quoting zkncj (Reply 39):
Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 37):
Not really. 20 years for a well maintained aircraft is nothing.

Don't think they would want to repeat the 763 over again surely? They seem to be going with the 12 year trend with Jets.

Ideally no, however they operate longer sectors than the 763 so will have less cycles on them and are a more efficient/effective design (proper cargo capacity too), while still being a current type with the 77W in the fleet.

Quoting aerorobnz (Reply 40):
I don't expect that many 777s. The old 772s will likely not be replaced by more 777s, but more 787-9s. Using the same logic as zkncj and you have used I expect a fleet of 20+ 787-9s and 77W replacement value for the 77X gen aircraft. The 787-9 is 90% of the 772 for 70% of the cost. The 777-8,777-9 is for the big markets with the big cargo load and long range.

By then I would expect 779 to be operating AKL-LAX/LAX+LHR/SFO/IAH. Which would need 8x frames.
The only way that might be reduced is if SFO became 2x 789 which would surely be too much when coupled with UA operating the route.
Possibly even YVR too although that would probably suit 789 with extra service on peak days. That will be a long flight in a crammed aircraft though... The 778/9 will have much more comfort seat-width wise.
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RickNRoll
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:01 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 23):
Considering that the 777-8/9 are so unique in their capabilities, I think no major airline will be able to do without a fleet of those.

Having unique capabilities doesn't seem to have worked out so well for the A380.
 
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Zkpilot
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Tue Dec 15, 2015 9:01 am

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 42):

Quoting seahawk (Reply 23):
Considering that the 777-8/9 are so unique in their capabilities, I think no major airline will be able to do without a fleet of those.

Having unique capabilities doesn't seem to have worked out so well for the A

Big difference in price for starters. Also the A380 has only 2 missions: Long Haul hub to hub, and slot constrained high capacity routes.
The 778/9 by comparison are still able to do shorter routes without much penalty as well as the long haul routes. They have the ability to move large amounts of cargo which the A380 can't do due to small hold space and more pax. Because it is smaller and 1 deck it requires less crew and doesn't need to sell so many seats to make money. It also has smaller landing charges at most airports and only has 2 engines to maintain.
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tortugamon
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Tue Dec 15, 2015 2:18 pm

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 43):
Big difference in price for starters.

Which do you think is more expensive the 779 or the A380? To the extent they are different I don't think the difference is 'big' by any stretch. ~5% difference on list. The A380 is an excellent 'deal'.

tortugamon
 
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Zkpilot
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:31 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 44):
Which do you think is more expensive the 779 or the A380? To the extent they are different I don't think the difference is 'big' by any stretch. ~5% difference on list. The A380 is an excellent 'deal'.

You are comparing list pricing for an aircraft yet to enter service in future dollars with one that has big discounts at current day dollars. A380 also requires other things (like larger hangers, extra simulators etc which the 779 wouldn't need).
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Boeing778X
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Wed Dec 16, 2015 5:50 am

Current 777X customers:

All Nippon Airways
Cathay Pacific
Emirates
Etihad
Lufthansa
Qatar Airways

So here's a list of who I think would order the 777X in the short/mid term. Some of these carriers seem like natural 777X customers due to their use of 10-abreast economy.

Air Canada
Air China
Air France - KLM
Air New Zealand
American Airlines
China Airlines
Ethiopian
EVA Air
IAG - British Airways
Jet Airways
Korean Air
Saudi Arabian Airlines
TAM
Turkish Airlines
Vietnam Airlines

Here's a list of who I'm not sure would order the type.

Air India
Asiana
China Eastern
China Southern
Egypt Air
El Al
Garuda Indonesia
Jet Airways
Qantas
Singapore Airlines
Thai Airways
United Airlines
Virgin Atlantic

Here's who I think won't.

Aeromexico
Alitalia
Delta Airlines
IAG - Iberia
Kenya Airways
LAN Chile
Malaysia Airlines
Philippine Airlines
Swiss Int'l
Virgin Australia

[Edited 2015-12-15 21:58:41]
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tortugamon
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Wed Dec 16, 2015 5:03 pm

Quoting Zkpilot (Reply 45):
You are comparing list pricing for an aircraft yet to enter service in future dollars with one that has big discounts at current day dollars. A380 also requires other things (like larger hangers, extra simulators etc which the 779 wouldn't need).

So then you are suggesting the A380 is more expensive I gather. It was an honest question. I think A380 discounting is quite steep and 779 discounting is very little and for many airlines the 779 will make them more profit so it will be more expensive as a result of that. 779 cost savings that you mention will lead to a higher 779 price, now lower. I do think 779 prices will escalate as we get closer to its EIS and that contracts even now will include price escalators for inflation.

I believe the price for an A380 or a 779 are similar.

tortugamon
 
Planesmart
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Wed Dec 16, 2015 5:26 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 46):
Current 777X customers:

All Nippon Airways
Cathay Pacific
Emirates
Etihad
Lufthansa
Qatar Airways

Given traffic and outlook, I expect all three non-ME3 will defer a portion of their orders, and one of the ME3 too, so opportunities for EK to bring forward deliveries, unless they do an A350.

This is an expensive niche aircraft, yet to demonstrate in the real world, with performance guarantees negotiated by two of the industry's toughest. Stress levels at Boeing must be at an all time high.

Wonder if performance guarantees under negotiation have softened or hardened since the EK order?

The current A380 order book will suggest other potential customers.
 
Ronaldo747
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RE: Next Airline To Order 778 Or 779

Wed Dec 16, 2015 6:09 pm

I think in the longer term, some A380 operators (European ones) will replace them and switch to the 777-9.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 46):
Here's who I think won't.

Aeromexico

Why not? With a few 777-8 and the new MEX airport in sight, they could do MEX-Asia-MEX without the TIJ stop.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 46):
Here's a list of who I'm not sure would order the type.

Qantas

Strong candidate for me as there are rumors they will order the 777X to replace their A380s.

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