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KarelXWB
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:30 pm

Quoting StTim (Reply 90):
For me I think Airbus will sell several hundred NEO's (my personal guess is around 500)
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 118):
I would think they are planning on producing it for at least 10 years so that would mean a ~4.5 monthly production rate on average. Reducing a FAL, even a modular one that can be re-purposed, from 10 per month to 4.5 won't be easy.

FYI Airbus made the business case for 1,000 aircraft. To me that sounds a bit high but I suppose the truth will lay in the middle. Maintaining a rate of 6 per month should not be impossible.
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RayChuang
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Sat Jan 09, 2016 1:39 pm

In the end, the long-range LCC's prefer the 787-8 and 787-9 because they have the range (over 7,000 nm) to fly very long routes on inclusive tour flights. For the A330-300 (except for the more recent production models), that plane only has enough range for central Europe to US East Coast destinations (probably not including MCO, FLL and MIA); that won't be completely rectified (in my opinion) until the A330-900neo enters service in 2018.
 
tortugamon
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:00 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 148):
Of course, the 787 was a bit of a different story as Boeing needed an A330 competitor / 767 replacement.

Agreed and a warmed over 767 with new engines wasn't going to be enough of an improvement to get them there.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 150):
Maintaining a rate of 6 per month should not be impossible.

Agreed, I think it is likely. I think in the near future it will be because of A330ceo development that will get them to that rate, but post 2020/2022 I think the A330neo by itself will have a harder time hitting that rate. Either way I don't think 500 units is unrealistic and even half that number could still makes financial sense for Airbus.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 151):
In the end, the long-range LCC's prefer the 787-8 and 787-9 because they have the range (over 7,000 nm) to fly very long routes on inclusive tour flights.

Well lets look at some LCC operators of the 787 and look at their longest routes:

Scoot:
SIN-SYD - 3396nm

Jetstar:
SYD-HNL - 4403nm

Norwegian:
OSL-LAX - 4644nm

The A333 operates routes up to ~5,100nm and the A339 will only improve range. Scoot and Jetstar operate a lot of short routes where the A339 may not be any better than the A333 let alone the 787. DY operates significantly longer routes where the A339 could come in handy but maybe with their cargo demands the 787 works better. Obviously these are just examples because these airlines didn't have the option of the A339 when they were ordering their 787s. New operators could chose differently. Either way I am not sure Scoot or Jetstar chose the 787 just because its range.

tortugamon
 
tommy1808
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Sun Jan 10, 2016 8:31 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 111):

That's a given, the A330 wing is 20 years old. The 787 wing is newer.

An excellent 1990 wing with a 2015, fairly extensive, treatment vs. a 2005 wing with "worse" basic features (length/aspect ratio). I wouldn't be surprised if both are pretty much on par. Four metres extra wing are quite something.

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Thomas
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tortugamon
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:53 pm

Quoting tommy1808 (Reply 153):
An excellent 1990 wing with a 2015, fairly extensive, treatment vs. a 2005 wing with "worse" basic features (length/aspect ratio). I wouldn't be surprised if both are pretty much on par. Four metres extra wing are quite something.

I would be shocked if this is remotely true. The 787 wing was improved for the 789 and will be again for the 78X.


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r2rho
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Mon Jan 11, 2016 1:52 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 147):
I thought some of the A350 ramp up was supposed to take on A380 space as well but I can't recall where I read that.

That would be the A320 ramp up, not A350. Indeed, some of the current A380 facilities at XFW will be dedicated to the new 4th A320 FAL there. A350 production in TLS on the other hand shares some facilities (the final stations) with A330 FAL IIRC, but none with A380.
 
tortugamon
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:27 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 155):
That would be the A320 ramp up, not A350.

That's right, thanks

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astuteman
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:53 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 154):
I would be shocked if this is remotely true. The 787 wing was improved for the 789 and will be again for the 78X.

What characteristics of the 787's wing do you think are powerful enough to more than overcome the disadvantage of a 4m shorter span?

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Stitch
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:47 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 157):
What characteristics of the 787's wing do you think are powerful enough to more than overcome the disadvantage of a 4m shorter span?

The supercritical design? The lower weight?

Boeing said they didn't go with the longer span on the -9 and -10 because the fuel burn reduction from the lower weight matched the fuel burn reduction from the greater span. The greater span also must not have significantly improved the payload-range curve, otherwise the fuel burn penalty likely would have been worth it to better match the A350-900.
 
astuteman
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:12 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 158):
Boeing said they didn't go with the longer span on the -9 and -10 because the fuel burn reduction from the lower weight matched the fuel burn reduction from the greater span.

No they didn't.
They said they didn't go with the longer span because the extra fuel burn caused by the reduced span was accommodated by the 1,8t reduction in OEW, resulting in the same range.
That's not the same thing

Quoting Stitch (Reply 158):
The supercritical design? The lower weight?

The A330's wing isn't supercritical?

I have also assumed that one of the prime reasons for the A330NEO span increase is to negate the effects of the extra OEW by reducing the induced drag.

Pretty much like the 77X does

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roseflyer
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:28 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 157):
What characteristics of the 787's wing do you think are powerful enough to more than overcome the disadvantage of a 4m shorter span?

Trailing edge variable camber system, drooping spoiler panels, load alleviation, raked wing tips, etc are all innovative features that the A330 wing does not have. The 787 wing design is quite impressive. I would be shocked if Tommy1808 is correct. Span is important, but not the only factor. There's a reason why the 787 span is not longer.
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tortugamon
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:38 pm

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 160):
Trailing edge variable camber system, drooping spoiler panels, load alleviation, raked wing tips, etc are all innovative features that the A330 wing does not have. The 787 wing design is quite impressive.

Agreed. I have read something about lower drag from the CFRP skin as well.

With the 787 adding 2+ degrees of sweepback angle over the A330 the wing span isn't exactly an indication of the length of the wing either. Certainly span is important but it doesn't overcome 20 year newer design with CFRP.

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KarelXWB
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Mon Jan 25, 2016 1:57 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 154):
The 787 wing was improved for the 789 and will be again for the 78X.

What precisely will be changed for the 78X?

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 160):
Trailing edge variable camber system, drooping spoiler panels, load alleviation, raked wing tips, etc are all innovative features that the A330 wing does not have.

I'm not sure how this answers the original question? The question was:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 157):
What characteristics of the 787's wing do you think are powerful enough to more than overcome the disadvantage of a 4m shorter span?

Would be interesting to know.
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tortugamon
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:14 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 162):
What precisely will be changed for the 78X?

No clue really. Just a series of Jon Ostrower tweets years ago where he says the wing was improved between the first version and the second version (LN 60 or so if I remember correctly) and the 789 and again with the 78X. 95% parts commonality with the 789 so it can't be all that different.

They refer to the 77X as the 4th generation CFRP wing which may contradict that though.

tortugamon
 
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MrHMSH
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Mon Jan 25, 2016 4:34 pm

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 160):
Trailing edge variable camber system, drooping spoiler panels, load alleviation, raked wing tips, etc are all innovative features that the A330 wing does not have

The A330neo will have new wingtips, I'd call them raked wingtips. Are the drooping spoiler panels that effective at cruise? Because if the drooping spoilers only have an effect when the flaps are down (which is what I would have thought), then it's hardly going to have an effect if they're down for 10 minutes at most, at lower speeds. I can't speak for the other factors because I'm not familiar with them, but I think I need clarification on this.

The A320 appears to have load alleviation:
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...lleviation-to-offer-higher-319049/
And I think the A380 does, so the A330neo and A350 could have it as well.
 
StTim
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Mon Jan 25, 2016 4:39 pm

The 350 definitely has it. Not sure about the 330.
 
roseflyer
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Mon Jan 25, 2016 5:41 pm

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 164):
Quoting roseflyer (Reply 160):
Trailing edge variable camber system, drooping spoiler panels, load alleviation, raked wing tips, etc are all innovative features that the A330 wing does not have

The A330neo will have new wingtips, I'd call them raked wingtips. Are the drooping spoiler panels that effective at cruise? Because if the drooping spoilers only have an effect when the flaps are down (which is what I would have thought), then it's hardly going to have an effect if they're down for 10 minutes at most, at lower speeds. I can't speak for the other factors because I'm not familiar with them, but I think I need clarification on this.

Variable camber increase the efficiency of the wing at cruise. It should be a few percent reduction in drag. The drooping spoilers increase the effectiveness of the flaps allowing for a smaller and lighter wing flap assembly again reducing drag. Load alleviation allows for a lighter structure since it limits the loads on the wing from higher aerodynamic forces such as significant aileron or spoiler deflection. The 787 wing includes quite a few technological innovations to increase lift and reduce drag as well as being closer to a super critical surface. Span is very important in the calculation for drag, but the 787 does have some wing technology improvements that make it entirely believable that there is less drag than the A330 despite a shorter span. I am actually quite surprised that anyone would imply that the A330 has a more efficient wing than the 787. The A330 design is good, but it is still a 25 year old design with only minor improvements like upgraded wing tips. It does not have the latest aerodynamic advances like the 787 and A350 wings.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/boeing-unveils-plans-for-trailing-edge-variable-camber-on-787-to-reduce-drag-save-207172/

[Edited 2016-01-25 09:56:22]
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tommy1808
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:28 pm

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 166):
I am actually quite surprised that anyone would imply that the A330 has a more efficient wing than the 787.

Pretty much on par includes being a little bit inferior.

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 166):
330 design is good, but it is still a 25 year old design with only minor improvements like upgraded wing tips.

I am not sure that a full car length of extra wing still counts as "wingtip".
And I still don't see why the shorter wing with the lower aspect ratio does have to be better. I don't see anything revolutionary new on the 787 or A350 wing, just evolutionary changes.
Boeing by its own admission didn't put the optimum wing on the 787-9, they replaced structure with fuel. That does leave room for an older, udated design to get very close.

And to make that sufficiently clear, I am not saying that the A330 neo wing us better, just that it doesn't have to be better just cause it is older.

Best regards
Thomas
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StTim
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RE: LCCs Prefer The 787 Over The A350

Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:47 pm

I know overall not a big deal - but they have tidied up the flaps and the flap tracks as they introduced the 242 tonne variant.

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