|Quoting tealnz (Reply 90):|
And Luxon "does not expect to order additional widebody aircraft soon".
I find this interesting, because it implies that there is little further expansion in the pipeline. Looking at the current demand for the wide-body fleet:
- 2 frames
, TBU, APW, RAR, PPT, RAR-LAX
- accommodated by Americas frames plus 1
/add summer NRT
/future poss MNL
Subtotal - 7
- accommodated by Americas frames
- accommodated by A321 fleet and Americas frames as required
plus 3xwkly AKL
Subtotal - 2
Total - 23 frames required
Lots of assumptions and caveats in the above - it's just a "back-of-the -envelope" calculation based on current schedules and practices.
There are 27 frames scheduled to be in the fleet after all orders have been delivered, and allowing for (say) a couple to be out of action in maintenance or whatever, this leaves perhaps 25 to be operational.
That leaves just two frames total for growth in the next several years. Considering that the current year alone has pretty much spoken for three frames, that's not a continuation of the current rapid-growth scenario.
If it's assumed that EZE
will account for a second frame within the next several years, then this leaves just one frame for "blueskies" growth. That is, daily to somewhere nearish in Asia, or thee-times weekly further afield. Even if a frame or even two could be squeezed out by rescheduling some ops to allow higher utilisation (HKG
have lots of slack) that's still pretty low growth.
(a) the current flurry of new routes will prove to be a blip and the airline will experience very little growth in network or frequency over the next several years . . .
or (b) Luxon's quote saying the airline does not intend to order
[my emphasis] more frames was a deliberate smokescreen, and the airline intends to continue its recent growth by leasing aircraft.
What's the scuttlebutt?