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LAXintl
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US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:03 am

The United States and Cuba have reached an understanding on restoring regularly scheduled commercial flights.

While specific details will need to be worked out, its believed Cuba is ready to accept about a dozen flights from the U.S. a day. It's yet unclear if these flights would replace current charters, or be additional new scheduled service.

US, Cuba reach understanding on restoring commercial flights
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/c821a...nding-restoring-commercial-flights

=

Will also be interesting to see if the agreement makes allowances for carriers that technically hold existing traffic right hand me downs under the terms of the original 1953 and 1957 agreements.
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commavia
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:17 am

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
its believed Cuba is ready to accept about a dozen flights from the U.S. a day.

If true, let the speculation begin ...

AA - 3x MIA
B6 - 2x JFK, 1x FLL
DL - 1x ATL
NK - 1x FLL
UA - 1x EWR, 1x IAH
WN - 1x HOU, 1x FLL

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Will also be interesting to see if the agreement makes allowances for carriers that technically hold existing traffic right hand me downs under the terms of the original 1953 and 1957 agreements.

Considering that several of the carriers holding traffic rights under those previous agreements literally no longer exist, and given that the DOT has previously stated that grandfathered traffic rights will give airlines no advantage today, I tend to doubt it.
 
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thekorean
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:27 am

Cubans should go aircraft shopping ASAP.

HAV could use update too. They have a real potential to be Latin America gateway.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:30 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 1):

Considering that several of the carriers holding traffic rights under those previous agreements literally no longer exist, and given that the DOT has previously stated that grandfathered traffic rights will give airlines no advantage today,

If that is the case, why has the DOT continually transferred and consolidated designations as part of mergers for routes to Cuba?

For instance United holds multiple Eastern and Pan Am Cuba route designations acquired in 1986 and 1992 to this day per latest DOT reports.

UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA BOSTON, MASSACH 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA BALTIMORE, MARY 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA DALLAS/FT. WORT 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA NEWARK, NEW JER 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA HOUSTON, TEXAS, 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA NEW YORK, NEW Y 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA LOS ANGELES, CA 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA MIAMI, FLORIDA, 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA NEW ORLEANS, LO 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA PHILADELPHIA, P 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA SAN FRANCISCO, 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA SAN JUAN, PUERT 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA ST.THOMAS,VIRGI 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA ST.CROIX,VIRGIN 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES CAMAGUEY, CUBA WASHINGTON, D.C 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA BOSTON, MASSACH 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA BALTIMORE, MARY 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA DALLAS/FT. WORT 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA NEWARK, NEW JER 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA KEY WEST, FLORI 9207009 880225 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA HOUSTON, TEXAS, 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA NEW YORK, NEW Y 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA LOS ANGELES, CA 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA MIAMI, FLORIDA, 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA NEW ORLEANS, LO 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA PHILADELPHIA, P 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA SAN FRANCISCO, 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA SAN JUAN, PUERT 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA ST.THOMAS,VIRGI 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA ST.CROIX,VIRGIN 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA WASHINGTON, D.C 9207009 920710 632
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA FT. LAUDERDALE, 8610057 861027 110
UNITED AIR LINES HAVANA, CUBA WEST PALM BEACH 8610057 861027 110
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jetblue1965
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:35 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):

Are these exclusive rights ? how many airlines are allowed on HAV-MIA/FLL ? What about rights to beach destinations instead of HAV ?
 
commavia
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:39 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):
If that is the case, why has the DOT continually transferred and consolidated designations as part of mergers for routes to Cuba?

Probably for the same reasons they've rolled over all sorts of grandfathered rights they seem to be overcome by history and/or no longer really meaningful, which is to say - reason unknown to me.

Nonetheless, the DOT itself has stated (earlier this year) that it would "take a fresh look at the market," and that as such, "in light of ... changed circumstances, including the updated bilateral relations with Cuba, any carrier holding long-dormant U.S.-Cuba authority would enjoy no advantage."
 
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zippyjet
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:41 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 1):

How about 1x per day BWI-HAV WN Viva Transfarency!
I'm Zippyjet & I approve this message!
 
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DolphinAir747
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:45 am

Will US citizens still have to go through the whole process of getting on a registered tour and whatnot before being able to book these?
 
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enilria
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:47 am

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Will also be interesting to see if the agreement makes allowances for carriers that technically hold existing traffic right hand me downs under the terms of the original 1953 and 1957 agreements.
Quoting commavia (Reply 1):
Considering that several of the carriers holding traffic rights under those previous agreements literally no longer exist, and given that the DOT has previously stated that grandfathered traffic rights will give airlines no advantage today, I tend to doubt it.
Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
Nonetheless, the DOT itself has stated (earlier this year) that it would "take a fresh look at the market," and that as such, "in light of ... changed circumstances, including the updated bilateral relations with Cuba, any carrier holding long-dormant U.S.-Cuba authority would enjoy no advantage."

My expectation is that as expected the previous bilateral will not impact the allocation of capacity going forward.

We also should be thinking about Fedex/UPS, etc.

I would expect the docket to open as soon as January.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:01 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
Probably for the same reasons they've rolled over all sorts of grandfathered rights they seem to be overcome by history and/or no longer really meaningful, which is to say - reason unknown to me.

Nonetheless, the DOT itself has stated (earlier this year) that it would "take a fresh look at the market," and that as such, "in light of ... changed circumstances, including the updated bilateral relations with Cuba, any carrier holding long-dormant U.S.-Cuba authority would enjoy no advantage."
Quoting enilria (Reply 8):
My expectation is that as expected the previous bilateral will not impact the allocation of capacity going forward.

We will see

I would expect airlines like United, Delta, etc which hold these previous rights to vigorously try to defend them, especially in light the DOT never formally cancelled such rights and continued to publish them year after year.

If only a dozen daily flights are available, the majors wont sit around and watch newcomers like JetBlue, Spirit, Southwest, etc pick up such limited entry rights without a good fight imo.

Get the popcorn out.

  
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incitatus
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:02 am

Will there be 12 daily flights to be allocated? I expect Delta to apply for 16.  
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commavia
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:23 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 9):
We will see

I would expect airlines like United, Delta, etc which hold these previous rights to vigorously try to defend them, especially in light the DOT never formally cancelled such rights and continued to publish them year after year.

If only a dozen daily flights are available, the majors wont sit around and watch newcomers like JetBlue, Spirit, Southwest, etc pick up such limited entry rights without a good fight imo.

Yeah - we will see.

The DOT has already stated explicitly that the route authorities from sixty years ago will not give any carrier with grandfathered rights any advantage in the award of route authorities today. But now the DOT is going to reverse course, and say that with Cuba opening up to scheduled air service for the first time in decades, they're going to set aside some portion of these incredibly scarce rights for two airlines who still hold grandfathered rights from 1957? And this, despite the fact - ironically enough - that at least one if not both of those airlines got those grandfathered rights through asset purchases years after the rights stopped being of practical use (at least for scheduled service), and despite the fact that it's quite possible (a virtual certainty, I'd say) that some if not most of the non-grandfathered airlines will have far, far more attractive and compelling service proposals than either Delta or United? Doubt it.

I think what's far more likely is that we will, indeed, get a "good fight" among all these airlines for very limited-entry rights, with "the majors" - which essentially means Delta and United - offering up their best proposals along with AA, JetBlue, Spirit and Southwest, and the grandfathered rights being meaningless in the process.
 
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 3:50 am

MKE has several Latin American flights and Caribbean flights:

Cancun
Cozumel
Ixtapa
Montego Bay
Puerto Vallarta
Punta Cana

Wonder if they'll be adding HAV to the list and/or will Cubana come to MKE?
 
cfichad
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:43 am

Will Cubana be flying into the US?
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hoons90
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:11 am

Quoting rj777 (Reply 12):
Wonder if they'll be adding HAV to the list and/or will Cubana come to MKE?

HAV is not really a beach/resort destination per se.

Varadero, Holguin, Santa Clara, Camaguey, Cayo Coco, Cayo Largo del Sur and Santiago de Cuba are more typical holiday destinations. Plus, it's really easy to make a side trip to Havana from Varadero if you really want to see Havana.
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LAX772LR
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:14 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 1):
AA - 3x MIA
B6 - 2x JFK, 1x FLL
DL - 1x ATL
NK - 1x FLL
UA - 1x EWR, 1x IAH
WN - 1x HOU, 1x FLL

Good suggestions.

Not sure AA would be given that much exclusive capacity from a single market though, despite that market's indomitable demand:
Instead, maybe 2x AA@MIA, with another allotment going to UA@IAD or WN@BWI; it's capital-to-capital, has snowbirds, has connectivity
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
migair54
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:17 am

I think it's time for a new start up airline in Cuba, Cubana is a mess and I think it will be great for the country to keep some money from the tickets.

I don't think at this time Cubana can land in the USA without having problems for the embargo and the compensations still pending to USA citizens and companies.

For sure 6-7 of the daily will go for Florida destinations, then NYC, ATL, maybe Houston, anyway 12 daily is not much considering the size of the USA and at least 3 main points in Cuba, La Habana, Holgüin and Santiago de Cuba.

Are chárter flight allowed to some tourist spots like Cayo Coco, Cayo Largo, Varadero??
 
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DocLightning
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:23 am

Well, I think the outcome of this development is obvious. With the normalization of relations between Cuba and the US, Cubana will discover itself at the crossroads of a massive North America Africa market and a massive Europe South America market, not to mention the local beach markets.

Initially, there will be an order for 787s to meet the demand, graduating to a giant fleet of 50, then 100 A350-900s mixed with A350-1000s offering the finest in Cuban food, cigars, and liquors in an elegant and well-designed soft and hard product. With the vast growth in these heretofore untapped markets, Cubana will need larger aircraft to meet the skyrocketing demand. They will order 100-200 A380NEOs and demand that Airbus produce the -900 so that they can order another 300 more of those. Markets such as SEA-JNB via HAV will be served with multiple A389NEOs per day and less active markets like FAR-UIO perhaps only with two A359s per day.

With a burgeoning national airline, Cuba will turn into a global financial and cultural hub and surpass the US and the EU as a cultural and political power. Americans will flock to the island in small, rickety boats leaving from the coast of Florida, often risking their lives to emigrate to the crystal metropolis that is modern Cuba.

You heard it here first.
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ADent
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:39 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 1):
If true, let the speculation begin ...

AA - 3x MIA
B6 - 2x JFK, 1x FLL
DL - 1x ATL
NK - 1x FLL
UA - 1x EWR, 1x IAH
WN - 1x HOU, 1x FLL

Good time for AA or DL to pick up a cheap, off lease A380?  
 
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:50 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 1):
AA - 3x MIA
B6 - 2x JFK, 1x FLL
DL - 1x ATL
NK - 1x FLL
UA - 1x EWR, 1x IAH
WN - 1x HOU, 1x FLL

How about taking out a B6 JFK-HAV flight, and throw in a UA IAD-HAV flight? Would be a great move going forward for people in the Chesapeake area going to the beach and capitol-capitol flight, even if it is just goodwill. Would be a great CSeries route.  
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deltal1011man
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:22 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 15):

Agreed I full expect AA/UA/DL to start off with the same amount of frequent as long as they request such. As of late that has kind of been how the DOT tries to play. I.e. Latest DCA slots for longer flights and how HND started out.

I figure AA 2x MIA UA 1x IAH 1x EWR DL either 2x ATL or 1x ATL 1x JFK, MCO being a possible wild card over JFK.
 
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:54 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 17):

Is this your prediction for 2020 or 2200? 

I wonder what the next US president will be doing about these flights - and the relations with Cuba.

The main danger comes from Cruz and Rubio. I don't expect Trump to undo the progress made under Obama - heck, when money can be made with trade and travel with Cuba...?

But I rather see him fleeing to nice and warm Cuba, and do his president thing from an enlarged US embassy.


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OzarkD9S
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:58 am

Quoting migair54 (Reply 16):


I think it's time for a new start up airline in Cuba, Cubana is a mess and I think it will be great for the country to keep some money from the tickets.

I don't think at this time Cubana can land in the USA without having problems for the embargo and the compensations still pending to USA citizens and companies.

A great idea, but Cuba is still a socialist country. The GoC may not be too keen on allowing a privately funded Cuban start-up going head to head against government owned Cubana.

IMHO AA should jump on this chance to partner with Cubana for technical and managerial expertise with a medium term goal of getting Cubana into oneworld. With IB, LA and AA's Latin American presence, OW would be a natural fit.
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LAX772LR
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 12:06 pm

Quoting OzarkD9S (Reply 22):
AA should jump on this chance to partner with Cubana for technical and managerial expertise with a medium term goal of getting Cubana into oneworld. With IB, LA and AA's Latin American presence, OW would be a natural fit.

Great for CU, but what value does that bring to anyone in OneWorld?
CU is worthless to JL/CX/QF, and what does it offer to AA/BA/IB that they couldn't readily accomplish on their own?

Not really sure what'd be the point, other than to suck up to the Cuban government; which most other OneWorld carriers also have no real use for.

I'd say that CU should just become a codeshare whore, and cooperate with anyone who wants to bring traffic their way. Much more sense (and probably more cost effective) than locking themselves into a single alliance.

[Edited 2015-12-17 04:15:09]
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:06 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 17):

LOL...in other words, Cuba will become the new
center of the a.net universe, replacing HNL/Hawaii.
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commavia
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:42 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 8):
We also should be thinking about Fedex/UPS, etc.

Good point. Although, I'd submit that - given the proximity and nature of commercial linkages between the two countries, and the fact that you can carry cargo on passenger planes but not the other way around - unless otherwise explicitly enumerated in this new bilateral, the U.S. side at least is going to have a heavy preference for "combination" carrier flights over all-cargo carrier flights.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 15):
Not sure AA would be given that much exclusive capacity from a single market though

I don't really see it as "exclusive," nor as all that unnatural. Do you think another carrier - Delta? United? - is going to try and get route authority for MIA-Cuba? I saw it more as South Florida getting half of all the flights, and AA getting half of those out of MIA (with the other half split among JetBlue, Southwest and Spirit at FLL).

Quoting migair54 (Reply 16):
For sure 6-7 of the daily will go for Florida destinations, then NYC, ATL, maybe Houston, anyway 12 daily is not much considering the size of the USA and at least 3 main points in Cuba, La Habana, Holgüin and Santiago de Cuba.

  

My thoughts as well - given the demographic realities of Cuban political, economic and cultural connections in the U.S., having 50% of all the flights from Florida, and another 25% from the New York metro, with the remaining 25% from elsewhere, seems appropriate to me.

On the other side, I, too, think it will be interesting to see if, and if so how, any airlines are permitted to, and then do, apply for rights to cities over than HAV. I suspect that, at least to start with, the market for flights to Cuban cities other than HAV will likely be even more concentrated, especially in South Florida, than HAV will be. That may change over time, though, and I would fully expect that over time - if allowed - that AA, for example, could easily be doing EMB175s or 737s to just about all the big cities on the island.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 19):
How about taking out a B6 JFK-HAV flight, and throw in a UA IAD-HAV flight?

At least initially, with such scarce resources available, I - personally - think it would be a waste to allocate many if any of them to WAS when there is so much of a market from Florida and NYC.

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 20):
Agreed I full expect AA/UA/DL to start off with the same amount of frequent as long as they request such. As of late that has kind of been how the DOT tries to play. I.e. Latest DCA slots for longer flights and how HND started out.

So AA, Delta and United get the same amount of frequency and then whatever's left over gets split among the other three airlines who want into Cuba? I don't think so - I don't think that's realistic. I think everybody - not just AA, Delta and United - are pretty much on an equal footing here in trying to get these frequencies.

The comparisons to DCA ex-perimeter slots and HND are both fairly meaningless here. In the case of DCA, that exemption was pretty much designed explicitly for the three network carriers after numerous previous exemptions were intentionally given to smaller and/or "new entrant" competitors. And the flaw in the comparison to HND should be obvious - in that case, AA, Delta and United constituted 75% of all the airlines in the U.S. (along with Hawaiian) even capable of using those slots. None of those dynamics are at play in Cuba. It's an hour flight from Florida - every one of these airlines can easily do this. Frankly, Delta and United have possibly among the least Cuba-conducive networks of all the airlines mentioned here. Indeed, I think some of these other carriers - particularly JetBlue - will have a far, far more compelling service proposal than either Delta or United.
 
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:09 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 1):
AA - 3x MIA
B6 - 2x JFK, 1x FLL
DL - 1x ATL
NK - 1x FLL
UA - 1x EWR, 1x IAH
WN - 1x HOU, 1x FLL
Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 19):
How about taking out a B6 JFK-HAV flight, and throw in a UA IAD-HAV flight? Would be a great move going forward for people in the Chesapeake area going to the beach and capitol-capitol flight, even if it is just goodwill. Would be a great CSeries route
Quoting zippyjet (Reply 6):
How about 1x per day BWI-HAV WN

Highly unlikely WN starts BWI or HOU before TPA from Havana or Santa Clara. Small stage length + ~3rd largest metro area O+D to Cuba + plenty of connections to other large US-Cuba markets.

As well, JetBlue already flies TPA-Cuba charters, so I'd imagine they'd consider flying these routes as well.
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mia
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:20 pm

Quoting migair54 (Reply 16):
I think it's time for a new start up airline in Cuba,

Not happening. Transportation companies are not within the designated business allowed to be privately run. This would require a special JV with the state. I do not see it happening before, well, in a long time.

I see this as a good step. However, I think I see prices going up from current charters if we are going to have a slot system owned and manipulated by big carriers. Service and price are currently the pits, but at least the charter companies understand the Cuban market.

I am assuming the Cuban Govt is not going to give US Carrier rights, unless it has protections for Cuban carriers (Cubana, AeroGaviota, Aero Carribbean) coming here. Castro has never given anyone anything for free.
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superjeff
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:21 pm

How about the "new" Eastern? They're currently flying charters to Cuba, have considerable name recognition in Florida (not just South Florida, but also the rest of the state, because Eastern was for years the major area in the state), and are planning to commence scheduled operations.
 
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JetBuddy
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 3:37 pm

The Cubans are going to need some serious infrastructure upgrades. I'm guessing they'll hire some very cheap Chinese contractors who'll get the job done very fast, but with somewhat poor quality.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 3:51 pm

And its official:

U.S Dept of State statement.


U.S.-Cuba Technical Talks Yield Civil Aviation Arrangement

On December 16, the United States and Cuba reached a bilateral arrangement to establish scheduled air services between the two countries. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Transportation Affairs Thomas Engle led the U.S. interagency delegation, and Ambassador Yuri Gala Lopez led the Cuban delegation.

This arrangement will continue to allow charter operations and establish scheduled air service, which will facilitate an increase in authorized travel, enhance traveler choices, and promote people-to-people links between the two countries.

While U.S. law continues to prohibit travel to Cuba for tourist activities, a stronger civil aviation relationship will facilitate growth in authorized travel between our two countries—a critical component of the President’s policy toward Cuba.

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/12/250733.htm

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LAXintl
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 3:57 pm

Statements by US airlines welcoming the agreement.

AA

"Today's announcement is great news for our customers as it brings us one step closer to connecting the U.S. and Cuba with scheduled air service," said American's chairman and CEO Doug Parker. "As the leading carrier to the Caribbean and the leading U.S. airline to Cuba, we look forward to establishing scheduled service to Cuba in 2016, from Miami and other American hubs. We appreciate the Administration's efforts and the hard work of the U.S. negotiators to reach this arrangement."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americ...ent-air-arrangement-153200076.html


B6

JetBlue today applauded a landmark civil aviation agreement that will allow scheduled air service to resume between the U.S. and Cuba.
JetBlue will submit its application for new routes to the U.S. Department of Transportation once the airline has fully reviewed terms of the agreement and has clarity on the process and timing of assigning frequencies to U.S. airlines.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jetblu...-aviation-agreement-155300976.html


UA

"United Airlines congratulates the U.S. and Cuban governments on reaching this historic arrangement, which will strengthen ties and economic development between the two countries. We look forward to offering service between our global gateways and Cuba as soon as we have approval to do so."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/united...es-statement-u-cuba-152300551.html

=
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STT757
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:05 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 1):
AA - 3x MIA
B6 - 2x JFK, 1x FLL
DL - 1x ATL
NK - 1x FLL
UA - 1x EWR, 1x IAH
WN - 1x HOU, 1x FLL

Just to add to the discussion of possible new scheduled service to Cuba is the States with the largest Cuban American populations:

1. Florida (1.2 million)
2. California (88k)
3. New Jersey (83k)
4. New York (70k)
5. Texas (46k)
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
jetblue1965
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:10 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 33):
2. California (88k)
5. Texas (46k)

Do you happen to knew where they're distributed ? For CA i'd imagine mostly LAX, but what about TX ?
 
migair54
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:19 pm

By the way,

What is going to happen with the current services between Cuba and USA?? because I know for fact that some airlines do fly to Cuba, even with some restrictions I have seen plenty of US planes in Cuba, I remember seeing AA B738, AA B757 in HAV. Plus plenty of ATR's in HOG, Cienfuegos, Camaguey from AA Eagle at that time. I am not sure if they still have regular services to Cuba with other planes now.

Quoting mia (Reply 28):
Not happening. Transportation companies are not within the designated business allowed to be privately run. This would require a special JV with the state. I do not see it happening before, well, in a long time.

I know it will not happen overnight, but if they really want to open the country to the world they really need some inversions and development, leaving 95% to foreign airlines is not a good idea. And I don't think Cubana can do anything by itself, it's a burden for the country in the new scenario, they will bleed money, more and more every day.

Some Cuban Americans will be very happy to invest in Cuba and moving back in the future, La Habana is a great city, I lived there for more than 2 years and it was great, and that was while Bush Jr was in the white house, so it was difficult times.

Allowing people to have little commerce is the beginning but the big industry is what they need, people need quality jobs and airline industry will be good and bring good money to the island, the market is so big and with so much of possibilities, Bilateral agreement will be in both sides, so they need someone to fly from Cuba to USA and a state airline can't grow up so fast in a country where the government has no money to invest few hundred million USD with a slow return of the profit, that's a risky business, it's for a private investor.

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 30):
The Cubans are going to need some serious infrastructure upgrades. I'm guessing they'll hire some very cheap Chinese contractors who'll get the job done very fast, but with somewhat poor quality.

I am not sure about the Chinese, if they really open to the USA it will be much easier to bring someone from there, China has a very bad name in Cuba as a cheap-poor quality and I don't think now that they can they will go for it.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 23):
Great for CU, but what value does that bring to anyone in OneWorld?
CU is worthless to JL/CX/QF, and what does it offer to AA/BA/IB that they couldn't readily accomplish on their own?

I think a hub in HAV where Central America transit pax don't need a transit visa is a good idea, but there are many things to change before that's viable, but the biggest markets are now serve with IB, most of them, and with IB adding some new destinations with the A330 I think it will be difficult to see Cubana in OneWorld, CU has been very close to AF-KLM in the past, so, maybe Skyteam could be a good candidate. By the way with the current HAV airport and current CU, it will be almost impossible to see any alliance interested, they have to change a lot both, and that will take many many years.

Another issue is that HAV and CU are surrounded by giants, AA and MIA, DL and ATL, Copa and PTY, TACA in SJO, B6 with the Florida hubs, and to a lesser extent AV in Colombia, United, Aeromexico, Interjet, Southwest...
 
jetblue1965
Posts: 5050
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:23 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 32):

"United Airlines congratulates the U.S. and Cuban governments on reaching this historic arrangement, which will strengthen ties and economic development between the two countries. We look forward to offering service between our global gateways and Cuba as soon as we have approval to do so."
Quoting STT757 (Reply 33):
UA - 1x EWR, 1x IAH

Any chance UA might apply for EWR+IAD instead of EWR+IAH and pick the DC diplomatic traffic over the Texas/Cali VFR ?
 
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LAXintl
Topic Author
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:28 pm

Quoting migair54 (Reply 35):
leaving 95% to foreign airlines is not a good idea.

But its reality especially in the Caribbean with weak or non-existent local airlines.

As example Dominican Republic, US airlines had 96.1% market share in 2014, Jamaica 87.8%, Bahamas 83.2%.

Even large Mexico with vibrant airline sector sees US carriers hold 75.2% market share.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:31 pm

Quoting migair54 (Reply 35):
What is going to happen with the current services between Cuba and USA?? because I know for fact that some airlines do fly to Cuba, even with some restrictions I have seen plenty of US planes in Cuba, I remember seeing AA B738, AA B757 in HAV. Plus plenty of ATR's in HOG, Cienfuegos, Camaguey from AA Eagle at that time. I am not sure if they still have regular services to Cuba with other planes now.

The State Department media advisory previously quoted seems to answer the question (at least partially):

"This arrangement will continue to allow charter operations and establish scheduled air service ..."

Quoting STT757 (Reply 33):
Just to add to the discussion of possible new scheduled service to Cuba is the States with the largest Cuban American populations:

1. Florida (1.2 million)
2. California (88k)
3. New Jersey (83k)
4. New York (70k)

  

As said previously, considering that Florida and NYC metro collectively account for ~3/4 of all Cuban-Americans in the United States, it seems entirely reasonable and plausible to me that these two regions would account for the vast majority of the frequencies awarded for new scheduled flights to Cuba.

[Edited 2015-12-17 08:33:16]
 
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TVNWZ
Posts: 2316
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:40 pm

Quoting MCOGVADCA (Reply 26):
Highly unlikely WN starts BWI or HOU before TPA from HAV. Small stage length + ~3rd largest metro area O+D to Cuba + plenty of connections to other large US-Cuba markets.
Quoting MCOGVADCA (Reply 27):
As well, JetBlue already flies TPA-Cuba charters, so I'd imagine they'd consider flying these routes as well.

TPA seems to get lost in the MIAHAV noise. But, there is strong demand here for almost anything Cuba. And it's not only expats and families, but businesses from Tampa jumping in too. Before the revolution TPA was more connected to Cuban businesses than Miami. I think you will see several flights a week by someone from TPA.
 
FlyingSicilian
Posts: 1666
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2009 7:53 pm

RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:54 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 34):
Do you happen to knew where they're distributed ? For CA i'd imagine mostly LAX, but what about TX ?

For Texas, Houston has the most. I have no idea about Cal.
Ci sono formiche qui
 
INFINITI329
Posts: 2600
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:53 am

RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:21 pm

Folks let's not get ahead of ourselves. it is still against federal law to visit cuba for leisure outside of the 12 exceptions. This basically eliminates the charter Cuba business.

At will be a while before you see Cubana owned aircraft in the U.S. because they can be subject to seizure.
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:22 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 41):
it is still against federal law to visit cuba for leisure outside of the 12 exceptions. This basically eliminates the charter Cuba business.

How does "this" - what is "this?" - "eliminate" the charter Cuba business?
 
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LAXintl
Topic Author
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:36 pm

Cuban-American population by metro area 2013

1. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 1,017,855
2. New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 145,336
3. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 83,553
4. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 59,014
5. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 42,904
6. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 29,675
7. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 23,108
8. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 21,960
9. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 21,234
10. Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL 20,947
11. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 20,857
12. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 16,982
13. Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 12,953
14. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 12,015
15. Jacksonville, FL 11,963
16. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 11,350
17. New Orleans–Metairie-Kenner 10,720
18. Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 10,414
19. Key West, FL 9,120
20. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 8,665

=

[Edited 2015-12-17 09:41:46]
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
victrola
Posts: 728
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 5:31 pm

RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:42 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 21):

I wonder what the next US president will be doing about these flights - and the relations with Cuba.

The main danger comes from Cruz and Rubio. I don't expect Trump to undo the progress made under Obama - heck, when money can be made with trade and travel with Cuba...?

I would imagine that if the next president is Republican, we will once again break off relations with Cuba just to placate the bitter Miami old guard. So don't count your flights yet.
 
irishpower
Posts: 413
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 2:18 am

RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:50 pm

What about West Coast flights?

I could see AA and DL 1x each out of LAX
I could see UA 1x out of SFO.
WN out of PHX or LAS
 
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Polot
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:54 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 41):
Folks let's not get ahead of ourselves. it is still against federal law to visit cuba for leisure outside of the 12 exceptions. This basically eliminates the charter Cuba business.

You realize there is already extensive US-Cuba charter operations in place today across a wide variety of airlines and US destinations?

Even with the restrictions in place Cuba receives quite a bit of US travel.
 
INFINITI329
Posts: 2600
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:53 am

RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:57 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 42):
How does "this" - what is "this?" - "eliminate" the charter Cuba business?

people flying to Cuba had to deal with charter companies. these charter companies could have charged whatever they want for a nice hefty profit. Now you cut out the middle man deal with the airline directly. the cost of travel to cuba will come down.
 
guyanam
Posts: 3076
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2010 6:21 pm

RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:13 pm

Quoting migair54 (Reply 16):

I agree that the mammoth share of the flights will be out of MIA/FLL. This is where the biggest pool of demand is, and these hubs can also feed passengers originating in other cities.

Initially the demand will be heavily VFR, as travel restrictions still remain.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 23):

CU will do exactly that. Code share as they do on many other routes where there is a strong carrier. They don't have the capital to build a fleet to offer the level of frequencies to compete with the US carriers. I also suspect that many of the exiles will be loathe to support an entity owned by the Castro dominated regime, if alternates are available.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 43):

This has also to be adjusted to take into account where recent Cuban immigrants have settled. Despite all the noise, Cubans descended from that first wave aren't going to be the most fervent travelers to Cuba.

Looking at this it is clear that the bulk of the flights will be from MIA/FLL. TPA and NYC will get daily service, and maybe IAH to cater to the TX and CA crowd. ATL will also get service, as this will be DL's toe hold into that market.

With scarce capacity allowed (I am sure that Cuba can absorb more than 12X daily if a free market was allowed) it will be allocated where loads and yields will be highest, taking advantage of hubs. I suspect that AA and B6 will be the biggest players. AA because of its MIA connection, and B6 because they are aggressively expanding their Caribbean operations. UA and DL will also have flights from hubs. Not sure that NK or WN will initially be in the mix.

To the extent that the Cubans have a hand in determining which US carrier gets rights, I suspect that preference will be to the carrier most willing to do code share with CU. Cuba will want a cut in this, and some control over these flights, but clearly CU isn't going to provide any, but token service to MIA, and maybe JFK. My bet is on AA, as they will also want rights to service to cities other than HAV, out of MIA, SCU surely being one of these.
 
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LAXintl
Topic Author
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RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:20 pm

From a source in D.C. I understand the initial frequency allocation agreed to will be for 20 daily services.
Source was not sure of its 20 total (10-10 for US and Cuba each) or 20 for each side.

I'm sure the info will trickle out soon.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
commavia
Posts: 11489
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: US - Cuba Reach Agreement Restoring Air Service

Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:26 pm

Per Reuters:

"The United States and Cuba have agreed to allow 110 round-trip flights on U.S. airlines to Cuba per day, according to Thomas Engle, deputy assistant secretary for transportation affairs at the U.S. State Department. That includes 20 flights to Havana and 10 to each of the other nine international airports in Cuba."

Wow.

So based on that, some additional, rampantly uninformed speculation  

AA
JFK-HAV – 1x daily
MIA-CFG – 1x daily
MIA-CMW – 1x daily
MIA-HAV – 4x daily
MIA-HOG – 1x daily
MIA-SCU – 1x daily
MIA-SNU – 1x daily

B6
FLL-HAV – 2x daily
FLL-SCU – 1x daily
JFK-HAV – 2x daily
TPA-HAV – 1x daily
FLL-additional secondary cities?

DL
ATL-HAV – 1x daily
JFK-HAV – 1x daily

NK
FLL-HAV – 2x daily
FLL-additional secondary cities?

UA
IAH-HAV – 1x daily
EWR-HAV – 1x daily

WN
BWI-HAV – 1x daily
FLL-HAV – 1x daily
HOU-HAV – 1x daily
TPA-HAV – 1x daily

This is going to be quite the DOT docket ...

[Edited 2015-12-17 10:34:34]

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