UA A320/737NG/757 Replacements - Revisited

Boeing778X · Sun Dec 27, 2015 7:58 am

A follow up, as I sort of did this topic earlier in 2014.

United A319/A320 Replacements (by Boeing778X May 28 2014 in Civil Aviation)

But the circumstances have greatly changed in 18 months enough for me to bring it up.

In the UA 100-seater thread, talk of the CS300 being a viable replacement for the aging 737-700s and A319s is present, and the A320s at UA are older still. In fact, the A320s at UA are some of the oldest active A320s out there.

In addition to the CS100, I see UA ordering the CS300, especially if the CS100 ends up performing as good or better than specification. I'm sure Airbus and Boeing will try and wedge the A319neo and 737 MAX 7 in there, but it seems that the C-Series will come out the winner for the moment, assuming Embraer doesn't win the contract.

And then, of course, there's the question of what will replace the 757, not only at UA, but in general. While the A321neo could be a nice addition to the fleet, UA may be waiting for Boeing to make a move. In March of 2015, VP of Fleet Ron Baur stated this:

Quote:
Mr. Baur told an industry conference that its evaluations are at the conceptual stage as its 757s are comparatively young, still flying regularly on extended routes across the Atlantic that don’t require a larger twin-aisle jetliner. The airline’s older workhorse 757s flying domestically are being quickly retired and replaced with new Boeing single-aisle jets.

Airbus, late last year, began offering a longer-range version of its 180- to 240-seat A321 jetliner—with new fuel tanks and the ability to carry a roughly four additional metric tons of passengers and cargo—which is scheduled be available in 2019. The European plane maker completed a deal with lessor Air Lease Corp. for 30 of the A321LR aircraft Monday.

“When we look at the A321LR, it looks like a pretty decent airplane,” Mr. Baur said at the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading Americas conference.

“But since we have the luxury of time in terms of waiting to see what Boeing’s going to do in the middle of the market airplane, we’re in no rush to make a decision on that.”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/united-c...-for-fleets-boeing-757s-1426017322

I'm willing to bet UA will wait, and as the article states, the 757s, especially the pmCO units, are younger than others, and would last awhile longer.

In the 100 seat bracket, the CS100 and E195-E2 are in play, and I'm certain that the CS100 would probably come out on top.

And I believe the 737 MAX 8 will make it into the fleet to replace the A320s.

Here's what I think UAs narrowbody fleet would look like:

E175
---
CS100 - satisfies the 100 seat necessity
CS300 - replaces the A319 and 737-700
737-800
737 MAX 8 - replaces the A320
737-900/-900ER
737 MAX 9 - replaces domestic 757
NSA/MoM - replaces the 757
---
787-8

Any objections?

United1 · Sun Dec 27, 2015 8:03 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Thread starter):
CS300 - replaces the A319 and 737-700

Quoting Boeing778X (Thread starter):
737 MAX 8 - replaces the A320

UA is investing in a life extension program for the Airbii fleet...probably another 5-7 years until UA starts to really take a hard look at replacing those aircraft.

RickNRoll · Sun Dec 27, 2015 8:15 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Thread starter):
And I believe the 737 MAX 8 will make it into the fleet to replace the A320s.

They appear to have time to see what the real world performance of the two products will be.

calpsafltskeds · Sun Dec 27, 2015 8:51 am

Unless the CS100 and CS300 have the range and high hot capabilities of the 73G, I wouldn't expect replacement of all 73G, which were put into service in 1998/99.

The used China Southern 319s are fairly new as 2003 through 2007 build.

About 40 320s are older than all the 73Gs and A319 and one would expect those to go first.

The A320 was delivered over a long period of 1993-2002. 42 of the 97 were delivered in 2000-2003, making all 42 newer than all 73Gs and over 40 738s.

SonomaFlyer · Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:11 am

The CS series will have short field and hot/high capabilities. AFAIK, the CS 300 could replace the 319/73G a/c in UA's fleet. The CS 100 would be the new narrow body which would open up the additional RJ orders UA sought.

I think UA is working out the price of the CS series before pulling the trigger. They might also take over Republic's order and/or top it up and add in flexibility for either subtype.

Ronaldo747 · Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:57 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Thread starter):
CS100 - satisfies the 100 seat necessity
CS300 - replaces the A319 and 737-700
737-800
737 MAX 8 - replaces the A320

What's about a potential CS500? It might be available after the suggested life extended program on the A320. The CS500 would be a nice plane for shorter missions with higher capabilities, leaving the MAX8 for longer range missions.

STT757 · Sun Dec 27, 2015 3:16 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Thread starter):

And I believe the 737 MAX 8 will make it into the fleet to replace the A320s.

UA has 97 A320s, they have on order 100 737-9MAX. It's pretty safe to say those 100 MAX will replace the A320s as it's almost a one for one with three for growth. The 737-9MAX will most likely push current 737-900ERs off longer Trans-CON flights like EWR-SAN, EWR-SEA, IAD-LAX etc.. Those 737-900ERs would then replace A320s on flights such as EWR-MCO, ORD-TPA etc..

Quoting Boeing778X (Thread starter):
CS300 - replaces the A319 and 737-700

Not for a while, as mentioned UA is still acquiring second hand 73Gs and A319s. If they do indeed order the CS100 for their 100 seat needs that definetly helps the CS300s chances, as long as the CS100 proves itself. Maybe seven years from now they might look to replace the A319s and 73Gs with something. And the CS300 could very well be in play.

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 3):
Unless the CS100 and CS300 have the range and high hot capabilities of the 73G, I wouldn't expect replacement of all 73G, which were put into service in 1998/99.

I can see an order for between 15-30 737-7MAX for short field, high altitude airports and also for their Guam operation.

Quoting Boeing778X (Thread starter):
And then, of course, there's the question of what will replace the 757, not only at UA, but in general. While the A321neo could be a nice addition to the fleet, UA may be waiting for Boeing to make a move. In March of 2015, VP of Fleet Ron Baur stated this:

I think as mentioned UA has time to see what Boeing comes up with, they might want to be a launch customer. If Boeing balks or pushes back the timetable then definitely UA would look to the A321NEOLR. I don't expect to hear anything on this for 3-4 years.

INFINITI329 · Sun Dec 27, 2015 3:20 pm

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 3):

Unless the CS100 and CS300 have the range and high hot capabilities of the 73G, I wouldn't expect replacement of all 73G, which were put into service in 1998/99.

The 73G only beats the CS300 by 140nm. That's less than the distance between JFK and BOS. Negligible in my opinion

What are the longest UA routes on the 73G & 319?

MrHMSH · Sun Dec 27, 2015 3:32 pm

Without intricate knowledge of UA, I'd say that the 737MAX will make the vast majority of their future narrowbody needs. I do think the A320neo could fit, because of the existing fleet, but it's at a slight disadvantage with age, as mentioned above.

Quoting Boeing778X (Thread starter):
And then, of course, there's the question of what will replace the 757, not only at UA, but in general. While the A321neo could be a nice addition to the fleet, UA may be waiting for Boeing to make a move. In March of 2015, VP of Fleet Ron Baur stated this:

That seems like 'wait and see' tactics. The MoM aircraft would probably be better than the A321neo, but will it be available in time?

United1 · Sun Dec 27, 2015 4:14 pm

Quoting homsar (Reply 6):
Nit-picky, but what's Airbii?

That's a fairly common joke on here...the plural of Airbus is?

rnav2dlrey · Sun Dec 27, 2015 4:17 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 8):
What are the longest UA routes on the 73G & 319?

i've flown BOS-SFO on a 319. the 73G and 319 don't see hawaii, so they really can't go any farther than that.

bgm · Sun Dec 27, 2015 4:21 pm

Quoting United1 (Reply 11):
That's a fairly common joke on here...the plural of Airbus is?

The same as the plural of bus.

United1 · Sun Dec 27, 2015 4:44 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 8):
What are the longest UA routes on the 73G & 319?

There are quite a few transcon flights that are flown with the baby busses/busii and 73Gs....I think the C300s might be able to do it but I think we also need to wait and see for real life performance numbers to start coming in.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 7):
UA has 97 A320s, they have on order 100 737-9MAX. It's pretty safe to say those 100 MAX will replace the A320s as it's almost a one for one with three for growth.

I'm not so sure about that...UA starts getting the 737MAX in 2018...UA has said that they plan on keeping the Airbus fleet in service until at least 2020. While I don't think all of the MAXes will be used for growth I think the initial few years worth of deliveries will probably be used to replace the last of the PW 752s and for a bit of growth....

LAXintl · Sun Dec 27, 2015 5:38 pm

The Airbii service life extension program is called "Airbus 2025". with goal of longevity through 2029.

Absent this investment, the first aircraft to be parked would have been in 2015 with only about 50 aircraft capable of flying beyond 2020.

With this major investment, I don't see any need to even start considering a replacement until early 2020s, and maybe await next generation of narrowbodies from Airbus and Boeing which might appear by end of the next decade.

jayunited · Sun Dec 27, 2015 6:25 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 6):
UA has 97 A320s, they have on order 100 737-9MAX. It's pretty safe to say those 100 MAX will replace the A320s as it's almost a one for one with three for growth.

I don't think so UA stated that they are investing in extending the life of the A320's. Now I don't know if that applies to all 97 in the fleet or if UA will retire some of the oldest and keep the younger builds around. But I do believe it was posted somewhere on Flying Together a while back that with this investment UA will be keeping the A320's/19 in the fleet well into the next decade. So the 737-9MAX order may replace some of UA's oldest Airbuses it most certainly will not be replacing all of the A320's. If UA does move ahead with this Airbus life extension plan for the Airbus fleet it seems like there may be some major growth in UA's mainline fleet once the MAX's start arriving in large numbers.

Boeing778X · Sun Dec 27, 2015 6:53 pm

Another question. On Boeing's website, they use the 737 MAX 8 instead of the MAX 9 in United's customer file.

While also having renderings of the 737 MAX 9.

Why would they do that if they currently only have the MAX 9 on order? I understand that they could easy order the MAX 8, but it's a curiosity.

INFINITI329 · Sun Dec 27, 2015 8:02 pm

Quoting United1 (Reply 12):
There are quite a few transcon flights that are flown with the baby busses/busii and 73Gs....I think the C300s might be able to do it but I think we also need to wait and see for real life performance numbers to start coming in.

I think BBD has proven their range numbers to be true. I am pretty confident that the C-series (both 100 & 300) can do any transcontinental route. Even the longest transcon route SEA-MIA.

FriendlySkies · Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:03 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 6):

UA has 97 A320s, they have on order 100 737-9MAX. It's pretty safe to say those 100 MAX will replace the A320s as it's almost a one for one with three for growth. The 737-9MAX will most likely push current 737-900ERs off longer Trans-CON flights like EWR-SAN, EWR-SEA, IAD-LAX etc.. Those 737-900ERs would then replace A320s on flights such as EWR-MCO, ORD-TPA etc..

As stated several times, UA invested substantially in extending the life of the Airbus fleet. Could still see a couple dozen retired. But with the A319s there is still economy of scale to hang on to many of the A320s. What never seems to get any attention here is the older 737NGs though. Many of the 738s are getting up there as well, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some of these go when the MAX starts arriving. The MAX should also provide better replacement on the longest domestic 757 routes (i.e. Hawaii) which would free more of the sCO birds to expand international flying.

In short, I don't see the MAX order as a one-for-one fleet replacement.

STT757 · Mon Dec 28, 2015 12:15 am

Quoting rnav2dlrey (Reply 10):

i've flown BOS-SFO on a 319. the 73G and 319 don't see hawaii, so they really can't go any farther than that.

UA, or previously CO, was flying SNA-HNL and SNA-OGG with 73Gs.

Quoting United1 (Reply 12):
While I don't think all of the MAXes will be used for growth I think the initial few years worth of deliveries will probably be used to replace the last of the PW 752s and for a bit of growth....

That accounts for 18 737-9MAX, what about the other 82?

Quoting jayunited (Reply 14):
If UA does move ahead with this Airbus life extension plan for the Airbus fleet it seems like there may be some major growth in UA's mainline fleet once the MAX's start arriving in large numbers.

Makes sense, but then UA is going to have a lot of mainline growth when you add this order with the pending 100 seater order.

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 17):
The MAX should also provide better replacement on the longest domestic 757 routes (i.e. Hawaii) which would free more of the sCO birds to expand international flying.

*If* this order stays all 737-9MAX here's where I can see them going:

Trans Cons (EWR-California, Seattle, Portland, Las Vegas, Anchorage?, IAD-West Coast, BOS-SFO, BOS-LAX, LAX-LIH, LAX-KOA, LAX-HNL, LAX-OGG, SFO-LIH, SFO-OGG, SFO-KOA, SFO-HNL).

Would the 737-9MAX be used to replace 757s on PS service, or would 737-9MAX replace domestic sCO 757 flying which in turn replace the sUA 757 PS flying? Upgrade and expand some of the 41 International BusinessFirst 757s to PS? Seems to be better to keep the PS and the International 757s in line than to divide the fleets.

LAXintl · Mon Dec 28, 2015 1:21 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 18):
That accounts for 18 737-9MAX, what about the other 82?

Everyone is forgetting United has 737NG leases that start to run off. Over 100 of the 300 or so NGs on property are on operating leases.

United1 · Mon Dec 28, 2015 1:21 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 18):
Quoting United1 (Reply 12):
While I don't think all of the MAXes will be used for growth I think the initial few years worth of deliveries will probably be used to replace the last of the PW 752s and for a bit of growth....

That accounts for 18 737-9MAX, what about the other 82?

Probably see them replace a lot of the 737-900ERs on transcon routes with the MAX as well as west coast to Hawaii....they may not be a direct replacement for any one type. Very conceivable that UA will replace the 737-900ERs as I mentioned above and shift the 900ERs to IAH/ORD/DEN. That could free up the busses and smaller 737s to replace more of the 50 seat RJs....

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 16):
I think BBD has proven their range numbers to be true. I am pretty confident that the C-series (both 100 & 300) can do any transcontinental route. Even the longest transcon route SEA-MIA.

That may very well be true...I think the C-Series has the potential to be an absolutely outstanding aircraft and I am very hopeful that UA adds them to the fleet. With the life extension packages for the Airbus as well as the 73Gs still being relatively young UA has the enviable position of being able to wait and see....

INFINITI329 · Mon Dec 28, 2015 1:29 am

Quoting United1 (Reply 20):
as well as the 73Gs still being relatively young UA has the enviable position of being able to wait and see....

I don't think 17 years is relatively young. The oldest 73G from CO is 17 years old and youngest is approximately 16. (Please correct if I am wrong)

United1 · Mon Dec 28, 2015 1:32 am

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 21):
I don't think 17 years is relatively young. The oldest 73G from CO is 17 years old and youngest is approximately 16. (Please correct if I am wrong)

All were delivered between 1998-1999...they probably have another 10 or so years of life left in them.

Boeing778X · Mon Dec 28, 2015 2:19 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 19):
Everyone is forgetting United has 737NG leases that start to run off. Over 100 of the 300 or so NGs on property are on operating leases.

Which units and how long till they expire?

jayunited · Mon Dec 28, 2015 1:47 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 19):
Everyone is forgetting United has 737NG leases that start to run off. Over 100 of the 300 or so NGs on property are on operating leases.

I had no idea there were that many coming off leases are most of those 800's the 14 900 non-er's or are they the oldest 900er's? When will the leases expire and are we sure UA is going to get rid of all of the frames after their current lease is up?
I'm not sure is there is anyone on this thread with true insider information who can prove a real solid clue what UA intends to do when the 737MAX arrive. But I think you may be on the right track I'm pretty up to date on UA's Airbus fleet but I'm not that familiar with the age or when CO starting taking delivery of the 737NG's. But you are correct some of them are getting up in age just like the Airbus fleet and although UA has stated their intentions regarding the Airbus fleet they haven't given up much concerning the the oldest 737NG's in the fleet.

LAXintl · Mon Dec 28, 2015 4:27 pm

Leased 737 fleet counts from earlier this year

73G - 28
738 - 73
739 - 4

jetblastdubai · Mon Dec 28, 2015 4:53 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 19):
Everyone is forgetting United has 737NG leases that start to run off. Over 100 of the 300 or so NGs on property are on operating leases.

Is anything stopping UA from simply renewing these leases?

Beatyair · Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:02 pm

Remember that it take time to build and test a plane (CS100) before delivery. So that 17 year old 737-700 could be 20 at time of delivery. Secondly, the testing is complete on the CS100 and the results are as advertised or better. I do believe that the CS series will be in United's fleet and the list above makes sense.

LAXintl · Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:22 pm

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 26):
Is anything stopping UA from simply renewing these leases?

No, so long as the lessor have nothing else lined up for the frames. However keeping frames will lead to ever higher maintenance and reliability burden compared to honeymoon periods with new built frames. Oldest NG frame next March will be 18 years old.

So the plan is to start turning over the older frames.

kgaiflyer · Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:26 pm

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 7):
What are the longest UA routes on the 73G & 319?

Quoting rnav2dlrey (Reply 10):
Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 8):What are the longest UA routes on the 73G & 319?
i've flown BOS-SFO on a 319.

Also BWI-SFO which has been flying almost a decade.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 18):
UA, or previously CO, was flying SNA-HNL and SNA-OGG with 73Gs.

SNA-HNL was flown by Aloha Airlines before their demise.

Boeing778X · Mon Dec 28, 2015 5:48 pm

Okay, so A319s and A320s are getting old, but I imagine are payed for, and a third of the 737NGs are getting old, but also leased. I don't know, I see this as a potential opportunity for UA to do a mild overhaul on their narrowbody fleet.

UA gets their first 737 MAX 9 in 2018, but in theory, how long would they have to wait to get their first CS100, CS300 and 737 MAX 8 if they chose to order the types right now?

lightsaber · Tue Dec 29, 2015 10:55 pm

I though UA bough 739ERs for 757 replacement? Any short field could be met with shorter varieties and either more frequency or higher fares.

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 3):
Unless the CS100 and CS300 have the range and high hot capabilities of the 73G, I wouldn't expect replacement of all 73G, which were put into service in 1998/99.

Range and hot/high is fine. Pratt is advertising a thrust bump option that will further improve C-series performance to be far better than the 73G on short fields. The CS-100 is built for LCY long haul...

Range? 3300nm for the CS300. Us west coast to Hawaii. TCON, and most Alaska to lower 48.
http://leehamnews.com/2015/06/16/cse...n-better-than-bombardier-revealed/

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 5):
What's about a potential CS500?

Bombardier needs to develop that very quietly. Any hint and customers will wait even more.

I'd be happy for any decision on UA fleet replacement.

Lightsaber

Prost · Tue Dec 29, 2015 11:22 pm

United slowly seems to be mixing new and older fleets to manage their capital outflow. Keeping some older frames may be a wise use of their resources. After all, UA is competing on Wall Street with other businesses, and 'all shiny new toys all the time' doesn't please Wall Street. And with fuel prices lower for the near term, I'm guessing UA is satisfied with a 17 yo plane that is in good working order.

VC10er · Wed Dec 30, 2015 12:03 am

If UA is looking to phase out the Airbus fleet, (and I recently read here how the new UA management team dislikes the current Airbus fleet and the new A350's), then why is UA putting their brand new domestic First seat on Airbus A319/20 first?

Or am I reading here that more 737's are leaving the fleet than Airbus'??

Thx

STT757 · Wed Dec 30, 2015 12:03 am

While I think the CS100 has an excellent chance of joining UA's fleet, I think the CS300 might not. The only competition for the CS100 is used ERJ-190s or new ERJ-190s. As discussed already Airbus and Boeing are not in the running for the 100 seater. However when the time comes for a replacement for UA's 73Gs and A319s you can sure as heck bet both Airbus and Boeing will be aggressively marketing their A319NEOs and 737-7MAX.

Airbus only has 49 A319NEO orders, and Boeing has 60 737-7MAX orders.

UA adding the CS100 to their fleet helps them later when it's time to negotiate for a new 125 seater, UA can play three competitors (Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier) against each other. Neither the A319NEO or 737-7MAX have been strong sellers, I'm sure whomever UA chooses having three companies bidding vs two helps UA.

TWA772LR · Wed Dec 30, 2015 12:05 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 31):
Bombardier needs to develop that very quietly. Any hint and customers will wait even more.

The CS500 needs to be more than just a simple stretch. Uprated engines and a bigger wing need to be added to keep it competitive. And not do what Bowing did with the 753, even though it's still a great plane, it couldve been better.

How does the CS300 compare to the 100? Is that just a simple stretch or is the performance also upped to give it more potential against the Airbii and 737?

Boeing778X · Wed Dec 30, 2015 4:53 am

Quoting VC10er (Reply 33):
If UA is looking to phase out the Airbus fleet, (and I recently read here how the new UA management team dislikes the current Airbus fleet and the new A350's), then why is UA putting their brand new domestic First seat on Airbus A319/20 first?

Considering that N401UA-N430UA are now over 20 years old, and most planes stay in fleets for 20-25 years, I think replacements should at least be considered in the not so distant future.

The A319s could still potentially be useful, if they are fitted with sharklets.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 34):
While I think the CS100 has an excellent chance of joining UA's fleet, I think the CS300 might not.

I sort of disagree. The CS100 could turn out to be a terrific aircraft economically, and what's better is one slightly longer with better CASM.

And seeing as some types of that size bracket are aging, why not order the CS300?

strfyr51 · Wed Dec 30, 2015 5:54 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 19):

Everyone is forgetting United has 737NG leases that start to run off. Over 100 of the 300 or so NGs on property are on operating leases.

in my 33 years at United I've seen them Buy Lease out on Operating Leases, and when the lease Expired Re-Buy the airplane and sell it for Freighter conversion, Sell Overseas or part out.
We've always had a premium for resale due to us always buying and maintaining totally matched cockpits in a fleet. We rarely have or have had trouble selling any of our airplanes..
the batch of 757's we sold for Freighters is testament to that as well as the 767-200's that we sold that re still flying and the legacy goes back to the 737-200's 727's and DC8's.
many of out old DC10's were converted to MD10's By FEDEX when they finished passenger service..

VC10er · Wed Dec 30, 2015 4:08 pm

Is United still taking delivery of 737's? Or are all past orders (I presume all CO orders) filled?

United1 · Wed Dec 30, 2015 4:35 pm

Quoting VC10er (Reply 38):
Is United still taking delivery of 737's? Or are all past orders (I presume all CO orders) filled?

There are two more 737-900ERs left to be delivered in 2016 and 100 737-9MAX coming on-board starting in 2018. All of the new 737s that UA took delivery of in the past couple of years were ordered post merger.

lightsaber · Wed Dec 30, 2015 5:39 pm

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 35):
The CS500 needs to be more than just a simple stretch. Uprated engines and a bigger wing need to be added to keep it competitive. And not do what Bowing did with the 753, even though it's still a great plane, it couldve been better.

The CS500 will have plenty thrust/wing area. The CS100/CS300 have amazing short field performance. A little longer for the CS500 is fine. Wing loading will still be below the A320

Lightsaber

VC10er · Thu Dec 31, 2015 10:33 pm

Quoting United1 (Reply 39):

GEE I must have forgotten that!

Funny how UA got rid of all their 737's then in virtually no time at all, they have been breeding like rabbits at United!

I like the Sky Interior, but it doesn't extend to the F cabin, and the ceiling in F is so UGLY!!!

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