United A319/A320 Replacements (by Boeing778X May 28 2014 in Civil Aviation)
But the circumstances have greatly changed in 18 months enough for me to bring it up.
In the UA 100-seater thread, talk of the CS300 being a viable replacement for the aging 737-700s and A319s is present, and the A320s at UA are older still. In fact, the A320s at UA are some of the oldest active A320s out there.
In addition to the CS100, I see UA ordering the CS300, especially if the CS100 ends up performing as good or better than specification. I'm sure Airbus and Boeing will try and wedge the A319neo and 737 MAX 7 in there, but it seems that the C-Series will come out the winner for the moment, assuming Embraer doesn't win the contract.
And then, of course, there's the question of what will replace the 757, not only at UA, but in general. While the A321neo could be a nice addition to the fleet, UA may be waiting for Boeing to make a move. In March of 2015, VP of Fleet Ron Baur stated this:
Mr. Baur told an industry conference that its evaluations are at the conceptual stage as its 757s are comparatively young, still flying regularly on extended routes across the Atlantic that don’t require a larger twin-aisle jetliner. The airline’s older workhorse 757s flying domestically are being quickly retired and replaced with new Boeing single-aisle jets.
Airbus, late last year, began offering a longer-range version of its 180- to 240-seat A321 jetliner—with new fuel tanks and the ability to carry a roughly four additional metric tons of passengers and cargo—which is scheduled be available in 2019. The European plane maker completed a deal with lessor Air Lease Corp. for 30 of the A321LR aircraft Monday.
“When we look at the A321LR, it looks like a pretty decent airplane,” Mr. Baur said at the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading Americas conference.
“But since we have the luxury of time in terms of waiting to see what Boeing’s going to do in the middle of the market airplane, we’re in no rush to make a decision on that.”
I'm willing to bet UA will wait, and as the article states, the 757s, especially the pmCO units, are younger than others, and would last awhile longer.
In the 100 seat bracket, the CS100 and E195-E2 are in play, and I'm certain that the CS100 would probably come out on top.
And I believe the 737 MAX 8 will make it into the fleet to replace the A320s.
Here's what I think UAs narrowbody fleet would look like:
CS100 - satisfies the 100 seat necessity
CS300 - replaces the A319 and 737-700
737 MAX 8 - replaces the A320
737 MAX 9 - replaces domestic 757
NSA/MoM - replaces the 757