tomaheath
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How's PVD Doing?

Fri Jan 01, 2016 12:40 pm

Yesterday I took a ride by the terminal at PVD very impressive place. Up here in New Hampshire we've seen the decline of the pax numbers level out some is the same happening down there? I know with the recent new fights to FRA and ORD things must be doing better.
 
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VS4ever
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Fri Jan 01, 2016 1:50 pm

Per their published November report, it's a bit of a mixture down there.

http://www.pvdairport.com/documents/...umbers/2015/monthlystats-11.15.pdf

Nov 15 itself was actually 7% up over Nov 14 but YTD it was basically flat (slight decrease actually) at just under 3.3m pax.

Main Increases have come from: (rounded) - YTD differences 14-15 below.

Condor: 9,800 pax
TACV: 13,900 pax
Southwest: 29,000
Jetblue: 15,000

the US3 are a mixed bag, but overall are down a bunch YTD.
AA Mainline: (52,300)
AA Regional: 8,078
DL Mainline: 47,700
DL Regional: (60,000)
UA Mainline: (50,200)
UA Express: 34,500


Number of flights (Air Carrier and Air Taxi only)

YTD Nov 15: 38,576
YTD Nov 14: 40,414

So flights dropped, ave number of pax per flight increased from 81 to 85 (probably assisted by B6,WN and Condor's increases) and after last years (Nov 13 to Nov 14 YTD) drop of 6.1%, that rot has been stopped this year. Will be interesting to see if growth returns in 16.

Hope this helps from a stats point of view.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
tomaheath
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:48 pm

Thanks for the info! When I drove by it looked very similar to the way MHT looks on the afternoon two planes at the gates lots of empty parking lots when I looked up at the very impressive over head walkway there was only one person on it.
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Fri Jan 01, 2016 6:12 pm

I was at PVD in December, and was struck by how much had been built since I was there in 2001. Notably, the endless overhead walkway to the huge remote rental-car garage and Amtrak line. Looks like they built for continued no-WN-at-BOS numbers, and that didn't happen.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
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Revelation
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Fri Jan 01, 2016 6:43 pm

Quoting DCA-ROCguy (Reply 3):
Looks like they built for continued no-WN-at-BOS numbers, and that didn't happen.

Indeed, it shows how difficult it is to decide if it's worth building airport infrastructure. It always seems some opportunity arises, and by the time the infrastructure is built the opportunity is waning yet the bills will be there for years if not decades.

Kinda like what you see happening in SEA today. AS and DL are having a turf war and DL is trying for a APAC hub as well so SEA is totally out of space, in particular in the terminals. Yet by the time they could come up with an expansion plan and get it funded and built, either DL or AS could change their business strategy and then they'd have a lot of idle capacity.
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cloudboy
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Fri Jan 01, 2016 8:53 pm

The walkway (and rental car garage) were built after WN started flying to BOS.

I haven't flown through there for several months, but they are hanging in there. WN has a pretty sizeable presence there, B6 has a token route to FLL and MCO. Airline consolidation has actually helped them, as what were smaller regional routes have been consolidated into mainline. PVD has been betting on BOS reaching capacity and to start receiving the passenger overflow from BOS; it has yet to happen. They are also trying to get Amtrak to make a stop right there (and thus become an alternative for NYC!), but again so far, that has not happened. It is one of those cases where business logic is superseded by irrational customer thinking.
"Six becoming three doesn't create more Americans that want to fly." -Adam Pilarski
 
321neo
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Fri Jan 01, 2016 9:00 pm

Quoting cloudboy (Reply 5):
PVD has been betting on BOS reaching capacity and to start receiving the passenger overflow from BOS; it has yet to happen

Think there is a reasonable chance of EI considering PVD if the BDL-DUB experiment is successful!
 
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VS4ever
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Fri Jan 01, 2016 9:25 pm

Quoting 321neo (Reply 6):
Think there is a reasonable chance of EI considering PVD if the BDL-DUB experiment is successful!

I could possibly see a seasonal, because with Terminal E capacity at BOS pretty much tapped out and with the June 15 numbers (per BTS) running at 95% capacity for DUB, suggests that either bigger planes or additional service might be warranted and maybe that can be pulled up via PVD until the E expansion projects come to fruition.

BDL might dilute that a bit and for those of us North of Boston, trekking down to PVD is a long way, but for those south of city, if EI thinks there is a summer seasonal, it might not do too badly, especially now that they have the tie up with IAG etc.

I would draw more conclusions if the July numbers (due out mid-Jan) show another healthy number. With 95% you have to assume they are making good money with the up front guys too.

That said, unless they pull in more aircraft, I don't see EI having the capacity to add the route and they haven't indicated at this point a willingness for more than a couple of route expansions, which the smart money is on going to bigger locations.

One more controversial thought is that if DY can get their Irish certificate sorted out, maybe they could be a candidate to run this type of route out of DUB.

Hmm.... shall crawl back into my stats hole to think  
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
PVD757
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:17 am

For clarification, the skywalk and rental car garage were funded outside of airport operational budgets, so its more of a bonus in a sense. It allowed the airport to open 2 floors of parking in its closest garage, consolidate all car rental operations and link the airport to the new commuter rail station. It was as much a regional investment by the State as it was an airport one. There are rumors of hotels and commercial buildings being built along the skywalk, but only rumors so far.

As for airline service, I think PVD may have a shot at someone like Frontier or Allegiant who don't have a BOS presence and would seemingly not fly into Logan directly. Jetblue is overdue to add something and in general, the cuts over the past few years feel a little too deep. PVD is well suited to grab token service to Ireland, London, the Azores and select Carribean and Central American destinations with large local demographics over time but not much more makes a lot of sense.

I see a gradual uptick in activity brought by upgauges and the occasional new route or airline. Any overflow from BOS does make sense to happen at PVD.

My 2 cents.
 
tom11
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Sat Jan 02, 2016 9:11 pm

Quoting 321neo (Reply 6):
Think there is a reasonable chance of EI considering PVD if the BDL-DUB experiment is successful!

I disagree -- I think with EI already serving BDL and BOS, PVD would just take passengers from BOS/BDL. Too many cooks in the kitchen spoil the broth, you know.
 
tomaheath
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Sun Jan 03, 2016 7:46 pm

 
RL757PVD
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:25 am

Quoting tomaheath (Reply 10):

http://m.providencejournal.com/article/20160102/NEWS/160109839/0/rwd
Hopefully this is true.

I think Boyd is wrong there... Southwest has already published its schedule for most of 2016 and its pretty close to flat capacity, though some summer flights are at better times than last year, so talking a 2-3% increase at best.

Both UA and DL have bare bones schedules from which to grow

AA can capitalize on the strong US FF base and has already done so with ORD... perhaps DFW in 2017 and maybe a Sat only MIA next winter.

Theres still more international opportunity as the Terminal E situation at BOS continues to deteriorate, which it will for years until more gates are added
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
rnav2dlrey
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:40 am

i really thought it could be a home run, but the rail connection is horribly underutilized. MBTA doesn't bother serving the two stations south of providence on weekends, and (as mentioned above) amtrak doesn't stop at all. amtrak would be useful to me because i could park for free at kingston or westerly.

RIDOT should promote the wickford junction garage as a super cheap way of airport parking for those in south county and SE CT. the 1100 space garage is only getting 80-90 cars/day according to a late august projo report. charge $2/day with a 21 day limit, and reserve prime spaces for daily commuters. run a shuttle bus to PVD on weekends when the train isn't running. that might not even work, as parking was free at the garage for the first year or so that it was open, and nobody used the place.

i live 25min closer to PVD than BDL, but it's gotten to the point where PVD is an afterthought when i book trips. CT has excellent commuter parking lots with free and relatively safe parking at many highway exits. for longer trips, i can park at one of those lots for free and then uber/bus to BDL. it's not BOS, but i get more frequency as a UA flyer at BDL (and a nonstop to IAH). in winter, gauge and frequency become even more important with IRROPS.
 
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VS4ever
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:42 am

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 11):

I think Boyd is wrong there...

Based on your comments and his deductions about Logan, I am inclined to agree. While he is partially right about B6 and to an extent WN bringing in more pax, roughly 30% of the growth has come from international alone (some of that will be B6 Caribbean routes) and some of the remaining 70% from domestic will come from transfers off of those international flights.

As for PVD, I can't see B6 growing much, they don't have huge capacity to spare and most that they have seems to be going to FLL, BOS and JFK for the most part.

Given the numbers I posted above for the big 3, they've got to do a big turnaround to provide the sort of uplift that will drive 7% growth overall. In order to do that, they need to push 250K pax on top of what they have done this year and directionally I just don't see that happening.

The wild card at this point is the Terminal E situation at Logan, which might drive someone to move down the road or add capacity to the route network (thinking BA or EI as potential options, however unlikely that may be)

November was a good month for PVD (up 7% over last year), but one data point a year does not make and I am not sure you can use that as an extrapolation to assume everything is rosy, yes, 2015 has been better, but its still flat and I think the guy Fredericks might be closer to the mark at 3-4%, but unless AA/DL/UA turn their numbers around, I can't see that kind of growth overall here.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
tomaheath
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Mon Jan 04, 2016 4:03 am

I agree. You can see more than half of next years schedule out. What are the seats filled percentage? Is there room to add more pax with what service is there now?
 
RL757PVD
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RE: How's PVD Doing?

Mon Jan 04, 2016 4:15 am

Going down the list:

B6- Seasonal frequency additions as BOS fills up... i.e 9th BOS-FLL instead becomes a 2nd PVD-FLL, seasonal opportunities for RSW/PBI... PVD-TPA is large enough for competition also.

12-18 month opportunity = 150 daily average seat increase

DL - MSP seasonal return is a no brainer. I think the regional pilot shortage and the long pilot block hours is whats kept this from coming back. Seasonal mainline is certainly feasible and has been done so many times in the past. Seasonal additions to ATL and DTW are do-able. Plus side is that outside of the winter Months, DL is all mainline now.

12-18 month opportunity = 100-150 daily seat increase (annual basis, meaning a seasonal MD80 is really like 60 seats)

UA - Existing ORD schedule is pathetic (2x RJs) and even BTV has more ORD capacity, hopefully the AA competition will wake them up.

12-18 month opportunity = 100-150 daily average seat increase

AA - ORD will provide 150 daily seats, over the next 12-18 months, DFW, Sat only MIA and maybe 3rd ORD in the summer could result in another 100-150 daily seats.

WN - I honestly don't see them doing anything aside fem maybe returning DEN back

Adding all of these up (none of these are far fetched in my opinion) it adds up to 450-600 daily seats which is 275,000-375,000 passengers, which is about the 7% predicted, but I don't see it coming from WN.
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