TAP With Angola And Brazil Economic Downturns

boeingrulz · Tue Jan 05, 2016 9:11 pm

I am wondering if anyone has some insight on how TAP is being effected by twin Brazil and Angola economic downturns. It seems to me that having both these markets down at the same time would be bad news for TAP.

DolphinAir747 · Tue Jan 05, 2016 9:22 pm

TP has much bigger problems such as labor issues, high costs, and an uncompetitive premium product.

Still, this site tends to overblow the impact of the downturn on Brazil service. Some airlines like SQ are still doing extremely well there. Sure, traffic isn't as good as always but the idea that airlines will cut all Brazil service immediately is a bit crazy.

adamh8297 · Wed Jan 06, 2016 3:56 am

Shortly after Neeleman led group took over TP, there were rumors of OPO longhaul going away.

If any Brazil flights are cut - the planes will just be going a bit further north (IAD YYZ BOS ORD)

LatinPlane · Wed Jan 06, 2016 7:08 am

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 1):
Still, this site tends to overblow the impact of the downturn on Brazil service. Some airlines like SQ are still doing extremely well there. Sure, traffic isn't as good as always but the idea that airlines will cut all Brazil service immediately is a bit crazy.

I find such statement hard to believe as Brazil is in such dire situation that no one bats an eyelash these days with the constant news of airlines either downgrading, slashing destinations, and cutting capacity to Brazil. The demand for business travel to Brazil is just not there anymore and for the foreseeable future the economic news will get worse, rather than better.

Angola too is also suffering due to the the collapse in oil. Angola's national airline TAAG has been warned by the government it no longer has the funds to bail it out. The Emirates team has been tasked to either turn it around or shut it down.

http://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/ne...-hefty-cuts-as-oil-slump-hits-home

I too have been wondering what TAP's finances will look like as some of its bread-and-butter routes are to countries with really bad economic problems such as Brazil, Angola, and Venezuela.

This news report is about a year old but even then TAP was already experiencing problems with its operation to Luanda, which not long ago was its most profitable destination.

http://sicnoticias.sapo.pt/economia/...m-Angola-devido-a-falta-de-dolares

[Edited 2016-01-05 23:15:49]

SCQ83 · Wed Jan 06, 2016 8:09 am

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 1):
Still, this site tends to overblow the impact of the downturn on Brazil service. Some airlines like SQ are still doing extremely well there. Sure, traffic isn't as good as always but the idea that airlines will cut all Brazil service immediately is a bit crazy.

Do you have any numbers to back that affirmation? From my understanding, SQ on GRU-BCN flies quite empty. And TAM recently started GRU-BCN and going up daily soon... don't forget SQ is putting a A350 on that route, so less seats soon.

The reality is that Brazil and Argentina are far far cheaper destinations from Europe now that only 2 or 3 years ago; you can find 500 EUR return fares quite easily when years ago something below 7-800 EUR was almost a miracle (I am talking Economy; probably in Business it is an even bigger hit due to the economic depression). I was looking at some flights for Easter and I found amusing that now it is cheaper to fly to GRU or EZE from Europe than to Caribbean resorts or HAV! And bear in mind that BR/ARG are more VFR/business destinations and longer flights.

airbazar · Wed Jan 06, 2016 1:58 pm

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 1):
TP has much bigger problems such as labor issues, high costs, and an uncompetitive premium product.

I'll give you 1 out of 3

We haven't heard that much from labor since privatization and the recent announcement by the new ownership to re-instate previous cuts might lead to a period a relative "peace".
"High costs" is a myth. Based on this article, TP's costs are almost on par with EK's costs and significantly below all other European legacy carriers except TK: http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...-new-model-not-unpicking-it-147262
And regarding the premium product that is true however the new owners have also announced that they will change that.

Now in regards to the impact that those economies will have on TP, I think it will be naive to suggest that there won't be any impact but let me answer that question with another question: What was the impact on BA from the U.S. economic crisis? At the end of the day demand between Portugal and Brazil and Portugal and Angola will still be there albeit weakened, due to the strong economic and social ties between the 2 countries. My guess is that we will see reduced frequencies which will allow TP to expand in other markets, mainly in N.America where the economy is relatively strong, and that is a good thing.

Quoting LatinPlane (Reply 3):
I too have been wondering what TAP's finances will look like as some of its bread-and-butter routes are to countries with really bad economic problems such as Brazil, Angola, and Venezuela.

Europe is TP's bread and butter. Brazil does generate a lot of volume but by revenue, Europe is by far the biggest market.

[Edited 2016-01-06 06:01:25]

incitatus · Wed Jan 06, 2016 7:20 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 5):
Europe is TP's bread and butter. Brazil does generate a lot of volume but by revenue, Europe is by far the biggest market.

There are many types of statistics and it is easy to find one that accepts a qualitative statement as such.

The reality is that about 50% of TAPs available seat miles are long-haul. Among TAP's 19 long-haul destinations, 12 are in Brazil. The only destinations in TAP's long-haul network that see more than daily flights are LAD, GRU and GIG. Brazil and Angola are more than 75% of TAP's long-haul network. Also a lot of Brazil traffic connects beyond LIS, so the Brazilian crisis should be impacting European routes as well, especially Paris. TAP has to have taken a huge hit.

airbazar · Wed Jan 06, 2016 8:49 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 6):

There are many types of statistics and it is easy to find one that accepts a qualitative statement as such.

Its not just a statistic, it's reality. TP may have 2x daily to GRU and GIG, but it has 10xdaily to Paris, 8xdaily to London, 8xdaily to BCN, 6xdaily to MAD, 5xdaily to Rome, 4xdaily to AMS, and 53 destinations in Europe.
This is from 2014. We'll have to wait for 2015.
http://new.flytap.com/prjdir/flytap/...2014/TAP_Annual_Report_2014_EN.pdf
Europe and Portugal combine for 65% of all revenue. That's called bread and butter.
All of S.America accounted for 22% or revenue, and all of Africa accounted for only 7% or revenue. By contrast, N.America with only 2 destinations accounted for 5% of revenue and Europe accounted for 40% of revenue. It's no coincidence that the new owners want to expand in N.America and Europe. Yes while I agree that the problems in Brazil will impact the Brazil originating traffic, the reverse is also true and a stronger exchange rate should lead to more Europeans traveling to Brazil.
This is not to say that Brazil is not extremely important, because that would be a lie. However Brazil is not TP's "bread and butter". That would be Europe.

DolphinAir747 · Wed Jan 06, 2016 9:15 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 6):
The reality is that about 50% of TAPs available seat miles are long-haul.

Of course since ASMs take mileage into account the counts will be biased towards long-haul flights.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 4):
Do you have any numbers to back that affirmation?

No, but people at SQ I've spoken to say that it's doing well. I see the 77W on SIN BCN GRU as far as November, by the way. SQ is considering A350 service SIN GRU nonstop at some point so it can't be doing too badly.

winGl3t · Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:11 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 4):
From my understanding, SQ on GRU-BCN flies quite empty

Indeed. According to the latest reports of Brazilian Civil Aviation Authority (ANAC):

Load Factor for SQ BCN-GRU-BCN (jan-sep 2015):

jan: 64%
fev: 45%
mar: 42%
apr: 46%
may: 62%
jun: 69%
jul: 78%
aug: 63%
sep: 68%

Load Factor for JJ BCN-GRU-BCN:
oct: 87%
nov: 84%

Source:
http://www2.anac.gov.br/Estatistica/...Estatisticos/dadosestatisticos.asp

aviationaware · Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:07 pm

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 1):
Still, this site tends to overblow the impact of the downturn on Brazil service.

Absolutely not, especially for TAP - they fly a lot of services to smaller cities in Brazil, and those are particularly easy to tip in a problematic economic climate. A handful of premium travellers make or break such a route.

jetblue1965 · Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:12 pm

Quoting winGl3t (Reply 9):
Load Factor for SQ BCN-GRU-BCN (jan-sep 2015):

jan: 64%
fev: 45%
mar: 42%
apr: 46%
may: 62%
jun: 69%
jul: 78%
aug: 63%
sep: 68%

This calls for a downgauge on SQ's part. A plane with roughly 20% fewer seats (and not so premium heavy) might be the right antidote.

C010T3 · Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:33 pm

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 11):
This calls for a downgauge on SQ's part.

That would be the case if it weren't the right aircraft for the SIN-BCN sector.

incitatus · Thu Jan 07, 2016 1:41 am

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 8):
Of course since ASMs take mileage into account the counts will be biased towards long-haul flights.

That is not a bias. That is a standard measure of capacity for airlines, and one that has some relationship with revenue. We could count flight departures and by that measure TAP's presence in Brazil is about as big as in Orly. If we are talking revenue hit in Brazil, flight departure comparison is irrelevant.

As far as TAP is concerned, two additional factors. TAP flew a lot of non-business traffic and the exchange rate has hit personal travel more than business travel - unlike for example, LH or BA whose lifeline is business travel. And I have not seen any meaningful reduction in capacity from TAP. Many other carriers have cut back. I expect them to be doing very poorly in Brazil.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 7):
Europe and Portugal combine for 65% of all revenue. That's called bread and butter.
All of S.America accounted for 22% or revenue, and all of Africa accounted for only 7% or revenue.

Wait a minute. You are not being clear about numbers you quoted. These are shares of TAP revenue. So South America as a point of sale represents 22% of TAP's revenue. But South America routes represent a much bigger share of TAP's revenue because of traffic that buys South America from Europe.

So one may say TAP's exposure to the Brazilian downturn is limited to what it sells in Brazil but that is not accurate. The Brazilian downturn depresses fares for Europeans going to Brazil too because the market is in a state of overcapacity. So no, I do not agree that 22% is the right number to associate with TAP's exposure to Brazil. The same report says South American RPKs are 38% of TAP's network. That is much more like it, even though it includes Venezuela (another economic disaster) and Colombia.

boeingrulz · Thu Jan 07, 2016 4:31 am

Quoting incitatus (Reply 13):
As far as TAP is concerned, two additional factors. TAP flew a lot of non-business traffic and the exchange rate has hit personal travel more than business travel

This is especially true for Fortaleza, Natal, Belém and Salvador which are strong tourist markets.

SCQ83 · Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:28 am

Quoting winGl3t (Reply 9):
Indeed. According to the latest reports of Brazilian Civil Aviation Authority (ANAC):

Load Factor for SQ BCN-GRU-BCN (jan-sep 2015):

jan: 64%
fev: 45%
mar: 42%
apr: 46%
may: 62%
jun: 69%
jul: 78%
aug: 63%
sep: 68%

And that is:

a) before TAM's GRU-BCN (which seems surprisingly successful)
b) including 5th freedom passengers (Barcelona to Sao Paulo) that from my understanding make a big part of the traffic of that leg.

Quoting boeingrulz (Reply 14):
This is especially true for Fortaleza, Natal, Belém and Salvador which are strong tourist markets.

Those are also business destinations. For instance during the crisis, a number of small developers or construction companies in Spain moved there to promote a lot of housing for expats, or to work in the World Cup stadiums. I am pretty sure that is all gone.

I think though that one of the "advantages" of the crisis in Brazil is the rise of Rio de Janeiro as a destination for Europeans (and in fact it is one of the only destinations in Brazil that is getting more European services). If getting to Rio becomes cheaper, Rio itself becomes cheaper for your €, and the Olympics exposure (for 2 weeks Rio will be all the time on the telly, and that is a phenomenal commercial), Rio de Janeiro (which is a very attractive city despite all the security issues) can become more popular IMO. It is surprising about Brazil the extremely low number of international tourists they receive; I think it is about 5 million (compared to almost 70 million for Spain) and most of them from the Mercosur.

402679 · Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:28 am

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 15):
It is surprising about Brazil the extremely low number of international tourists they receive; I think it is about 5 million (compared to almost 70 million for Spain) and most of them from the Mercosur.

This government hardly see tourism as a way to improve economy. It's easy to see how "undeveloped" brazillian tourism is if you have ever been here. We lack infrastructure, the major airport - Guarulhos/São Paulo - have only had a major change in 2014 due to the World Cup, GIG/Galeao is running against time to be ready for the Olympics. People and government here don't think in the long run and everything is done at the last minute and in the worst possible way ( but there are some exceptions).

Brazil is the country of the future and forever will be, that's for sure.

rg787 · Thu Jan 07, 2016 12:34 pm

Regardless of the impact of the crisis in TAP's revenue, I think it is good for the moment TP is at right now. TP is in need for a reorganization of its structure, and that is hard to do when traffic is exploding. Remember: Crisis is opportunity.

aviationaware · Thu Jan 07, 2016 2:03 pm

Quoting geoshina (Reply 16):
This government hardly see tourism as a way to improve economy.

Frankly, it's difficult to do so when you consider that to enable major tourism, you first have to spend huge amounts of money for inner security which is lackluster at best right now. Brazil would have to sustain the levels from the World Cup and the Olympics (assuming all goes well this summer) permanently to achieve this, and I don't see that happening.

airbazar · Thu Jan 07, 2016 2:17 pm

Quoting aviationaware (Reply 10):
A handful of premium travellers make or break such a route.

The thing is TP doesn't carry a lot of premium passengers on those routes. Their J cabin is filled with non-revs and award tickets. TP's Brazilian network is very leisure oriented that's why their J product is so outdated.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 13):
Wait a minute. You are not being clear about numbers you quoted. These are shares of TAP revenue. So South America as a point of sale represents 22% of TAP's revenue. But South America routes represent a much bigger share of TAP's revenue because of traffic that buys South America from Europe.

I was very clear. That is exactly what I said. Here I'll quote it

Quoting airbazar (Reply 5):
Europe is TP's bread and butter. Brazil does generate a lot of volume but by revenue, Europe is by far the biggest market.

I know Europe generates revenue to Brazil but that market is actually increasing, not decreasing and it will only get bigger as the Euro exchange rate gets better and the European economy recovers. The big question is how much the increased demand from Europe can offset the decreased demand from S.America.

Quoting incitatus (Reply 13):
So one may say TAP's exposure to the Brazilian downturn is limited to what it sells in Brazil but that is not accurate.

Again I didn't say that. Nevertheless, I was simply pointing out that with only 22% of revenue coming from S.America the overall impact on TP won't be as big as some people were making it seem. They can easily shift capacity to N.America and I fully expect an announcement on that very soon. I also expect MPM to see increased capacity.

SCQ83 · Thu Jan 07, 2016 2:35 pm

Quoting geoshina (Reply 16):
This government hardly see tourism as a way to improve economy. It's easy to see how "undeveloped" brazillian tourism is if you have ever been here. We lack infrastructure, the major airport - Guarulhos/São Paulo - have only had a major change in 2014 due to the World Cup, GIG/Galeao is running against time to be ready for the Olympics. People and government here don't think in the long run and everything is done at the last minute and in the worst possible way ( but there are some exceptions).

Brazil is the country of the future and forever will be, that's for sure.

Well other than security (a major flawn), the issue with Rio de Janeiro (and Brazil in general) were extortionate fares and cost of holiday compared to the general infrastructure. My last time in Brazil was 2013 (at the peak of the Brazilian economic miracle) and the cost of everything (from a ticket in the metro in Rio to a hotel or a meal in a very average place) felt more Swiss or Norwegian than anything. It was definitely more expensive than New York or Paris... it was shocking.

So Rio was absolutely uncompetitive with places like the Caribbean or SE Asia that were way cheaper, safer and have better infrastructure in general. At least if costs are lowered (cheaper fares - and Norwegian can fuel that market - and cheaper costs with the Real nosedive), more people can be attracted to travel to Brazil.

402679 · Fri Jan 08, 2016 10:11 am

Quoting aviationaware (Reply 18):
Frankly, it's difficult to do so when you consider that to enable major tourism, you first have to spend huge amounts of money for inner security which is lackluster at best right now. Brazil would have to sustain the levels from the World Cup and the Olympics (assuming all goes well this summer) permanently to achieve this, and I don't see that happening.

I think that you need fast and reliable transportation, a good amount of people speaking english, at least. Security should be like you said. We are so far behind when you think of the BRICs countries and tourism.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 20):
Well other than security (a major flawn), the issue with Rio de Janeiro (and Brazil in general) were extortionate fares and cost of holiday compared to the general infrastructure. My last time in Brazil was 2013 (at the peak of the Brazilian economic miracle) and the cost of everything (from a ticket in the metro in Rio to a hotel or a meal in a very average place) felt more Swiss or Norwegian than anything. It was definitely more expensive than New York or Paris... it was shocking.

We call this here the "Brazil cost". You have to pay a lot of taxes and a lot of money in order to run your business, therefore expect everything to be more expensive, and even more in capital cities like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. We say that the consumer always pay the price. Once again the government thinks that the solution is to tax everything and everyone the maximum that they can get, which could be great to improve all these areas that Brazil has always "lacked". But I think that the money gets "lost" in a few accounts in Swiss banks and other places like Cayman island... someway...somehow...

jetblue1965 · Fri Jan 08, 2016 10:34 am

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 20):

The collapse of the BRL has fixed a lot of the tourism cost woes. I came back from RIO SAO in November it felt reasonably cheap - definitely in line with the fact it's a developing nation.

rg787 · Fri Jan 08, 2016 10:46 am

Quoting geoshina (Reply 21):
We call this here the "Brazil cost". You have to pay a lot of taxes and a lot of money in order to run your business, therefore expect everything to be more expensive, and even more in capital cities like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. We say that the consumer always pay the price. Once again the government thinks that the solution is to tax everything and everyone the maximum that they can get, which could be great to improve all these areas that Brazil has always "lacked". But I think that the money gets "lost" in a few accounts in Swiss banks and other places like Cayman island... someway...somehow...

Can we keep the discussion aviation related? Our economics are far more complex than only the government doing things last minute and high taxes and corruption, and those are absolutely not the reason why tourism is so low.

For starters, there a lot of countries out there that receive more tourists and have similar or worse problems. High taxes, poverty, risk of terrorist attacks, lack of security... Heck, look at Europe, there have been a lot of issues with refugees, there have been those attacks in Paris, there is a constant fear of new attacks and Paris or London (or even Barcelona if you want to leave the big cities) probably receive more tourists than our whole country!

jetblue1965 · Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:12 am

Quoting rg787 (Reply 23):

Brazil can really start by relaxing its tourism visa process a bit. Even if they insist on reciprocity, change it to something easier like E-visa online or visa on arrival. The current process for US passports is a major hassle that is unnecessarily deterring tourism from one of the largest potential source of visitors.

The second part is security, even if it's just the perception.

402679 · Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:33 am

Quoting rg787 (Reply 23):

So shouldn't you set the example and stop talking about it, instead of keeping the conversation going?

....

The Brazil-Europe market is suffering a little bit less than the Brazil-USA one, due to the historic ties. One thing that might happens in the near future is Azul start the VCP-LIS route instead of TAP.
And I've heard that some of Azul airplanes may go to TAP/Portugalia.

C010T3 · Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:14 pm

Quoting geoshina (Reply 25):
The Brazil-Europe market is suffering a little bit less than the Brazil-USA one, due to the historic ties.

That's not true. It's suffering less, because it grew in a more sustainable fashion. Brazil-US was in a bubble as Brazilians were even shopping for toilet paper in Florida. The Brazil-Europe market did not see the entrance of a new player like Azul. Additionally, LAN which is a very US-centric airline drove TAM to do the same. TAM hasn't grown its long-haul operations for years. All it has been done was to shift capacity from Europe to North America. European airlines actually filled the vacuum and TAM doesn't have anywhere to run to anymore.

aviationaware · Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:23 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 19):
The thing is TP doesn't carry a lot of premium passengers on those routes. Their J cabin is filled with non-revs and award tickets. TP's Brazilian network is very leisure oriented that's why their J product is so outdated.

Call them full fare travellers then. Anyway, even this leisure oriented network lives off the handful of short term price insensitive business travellers that an emerging economy like Brazil (I wonder if you can even still call it that, it's more like a stagnating economy right now) generates. If they fall off the board, the routes become very difficult to sustain.

DolphinAir747 · Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:06 pm

Quoting boeingrulz (Reply 14):
This is especially true for Fortaleza, Natal, Belém and Salvador which are strong tourist markets.

The routes that are doing badly now are those catering to Brazilian shopping trips, especially to Florida, which is why the crisis is hitting AA so hard. Since these routes cater mostly to European tourists they will do better now that the price of going there is cheaper. I'm sure sexually frustrated Italian men will be very happy to get "more bang for their buck" as NK would say.

airbazar · Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:21 pm

Quoting geoshina (Reply 25):
One thing that might happens in the near future is Azul start the VCP-LIS route instead of TAP.

Doubtful. I could however see Azul take over the OPO routes.

Quoting aviationaware (Reply 27):
Call them full fare travellers then.... If they fall off the board, the routes become very difficult to sustain.

Using an American term, I would say those passengers "are just gravy"

I'm sure there are some wealthy people who fly these routes for vacation and the occasional business person but according to some people with more knowledge than I have, I've heard that outside of GIG/GRU/SSA/BSB there is about zero demand for those types of seats, even when the economy was strong. That would explain why lacking a consistent demand for premium fares, no other network carrier in Europe has been successful in those secondary destinations. TP with its significant lower operating costs, high volume of O&D, and geographic proximity is the exception and that allows it to operate these leisure and VFR destinations.

DolphinAir747 · Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:23 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 29):
geographic proximity is the exception

I believe TP is the only European carrier that can do a roundtrip to Brazil in a block time of under 24 hours due to the southwesterly location of LIS.

efpmeneses · Sun Jan 10, 2016 1:19 pm

It deppends of which Brazil flights are we talking about.

To places like GRU, GIG, BSB or CNF, only Iberia or Air Europa could do an aproximate 24 hour block time from Madrid.

To northeastern Brazil (FOR, NAT, REC, SSA), lots of airlines could do a block time of 24 hours, for example, AZ from MXP or FCO, AF from CDG, LX, BA, SN, OS, KL.

Planeflyer · Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:18 pm

I would think China's recent slowdown must be impacting Brazilian commodities and nat resources markets.

Were Chinese business travelers transiting via US or Europe?

I know we want to keep this focused on aviation but Hernando de Soto's wonderful book, titled The Mystery of Capital will be an eye opener for those who cares about poverty, the cost of doing business in Brazil, corruption, high crime rates and the boom and bust nature of much of Latin America.

Someday the author will be awarded the Nobel Prize.

tff · Sun Jan 10, 2016 5:24 pm

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 30):
I believe TP is the only European carrier that can do a roundtrip to Brazil in a block time of under 24 hours due to the southwesterly location of LIS.

What is specific about TP is that they only need 2 PNT for all Brazil flights (except POA).

DolphinAir747 · Sun Jan 10, 2016 5:41 pm

Quoting Planeflyer (Reply 32):

I would think China's recent slowdown must be impacting Brazilian commodities and nat resources markets.

Were Chinese business travelers transiting via US or Europe?

Definitely not on TP which lacks China service. I think the majority were going via the ME3 or AF/LH/BA.

SCQ83 · Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:39 pm

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 34):

Air China flies PEK-MAD-GRU.

DolphinAir747 · Sun Jan 10, 2016 8:55 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 35):

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 34):

Air China flies PEK-MAD-GRU.

Right though that service is not particularly useful for someone flying HKG GIG for example.

dash500 · Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:24 pm

Quoting tff (Reply 33):
What is specific about TP is that they only need 2 PNT for all Brazil flights (except POA).

Depending on the STD, GIG and GRU are also operated with 3 Flight Crew members.

georgiabill · Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:22 pm

Wonder if TP considers returning to Macau 3 or 4 weekly?

DolphinAir747 · Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:24 pm

Quoting georgiabill (Reply 38):
Wonder if TP considers returning to Macau 3 or 4 weekly?

I doubt the market is sufficient. I would see CX launching HKG LIS (direct boat from HKG to Macau is relatively quick and painless) before this.

georgiabill · Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:30 pm

CX HKG-LIS makes a lot of sense especially after the A350'S start arriving for CX.

I only ask about TP trying again flights to Macau from Lisbon is because of the new ownership group. Thinking they may use LIS to connect North Africa with China.

Your thoughts?

incitatus · Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:49 pm

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 26):
Brazil-US was in a bubble as Brazilians were even shopping for toilet paper in Florida.

I would really hesitate in stating you are being inaccurate

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 26):
The Brazil-Europe market did not see the entrance of a new player like Azul.

That must be one of the most extraordinary cases of corporate regret ever. AD got wide-bodies 5 years too early.

DolphinAir747 · Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:50 pm

Quoting georgiabill (Reply 40):

CX HKG-LIS makes a lot of sense especially after the A350'S start arriving for CX.

I only ask about TP trying again flights to Macau from Lisbon is because of the new ownership group. Thinking they may use LIS to connect North Africa with China.

Your thoughts?

There are many other ways to get from North Africa to China. Also MFM by itself is too small a market whereas HKG can also pull traffic from MFM, SZX, and a much larger local catchment area not to mention all the connections of the HKG hub. Overall it would be a cool route but I can't see it happening. Also, MFM has very small connections to LIS and the rest of the Lusophone world, unlike HKG which is a huge market to the Anglophone world. I speak fluent Portuguese and could not find a single Portuguese-speaking person in all of Macau, an experience which some Brazilians I met beforehand alerted me of!

C010T3 · Sun Jan 10, 2016 11:59 pm

Quoting incitatus (Reply 41):
That must be one of the most extraordinary cases of corporate regret ever. AD got wide-bodies 5 years too early.

Azul inherited its Orlando fixation from Transbrasil. It's like they did not learn from history.

SCQ83 · Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:08 am

I have been to Macau and I saw quite a few Portuguese-speaking people (of course probably not enough to grant a flight to LIS

) . I would say that a large % of Westerns there were Portuguese/Brazilians; whether visiting or working/living there (for the very reason that Portuguese is an official language so they have media in Portuguese and so on). In any case, I find surprising how Macau is little known outside China even if it is only 40 minutes away by ferry boat from Central HKG. I find it one of weirdest cities on earth...an impossible mix of Lisbon, Hong Kong and Las Vegas... quite unique.

In any case, I can't see the point for HKG either. Most Chinese visiting Spain and Portugal (and there are quite a few of them retiring in Portugal) or doing business in Brazil come from mainland China. In that case, it would make more sense to have a flight to a Star Alliance (TAP) hub in mainland China, like PEK. Interestingly, there is no LIS-PEK flight yet.

I think this "obsession" about HKG here is because of the anglo-saxon (and likely finance-oriented LON/NYC) nature of this forum... but the relations between those anglo-saxon/Asian state-cities like HKG and SIN and places like Spain and Portugal are quite irrelevant (mainly tourism from those places; the only route so far is the SIN-BCN-GRU and soon HKG-MAD). It has only been with the rise of China when those relations have exploded with business and trade, tourism (Chinese to Europe) and VFR with the large number of Chinese in Southern Europe.

airbazar · Mon Jan 11, 2016 3:59 pm

Quoting georgiabill (Reply 38):
Wonder if TP considers returning to Macau 3 or 4 weekly?

TP will not serve any Fareast Asian city any time in the foreseeable future. The new owners made it perfectly clear that such was not going to happen as the reason for swapping the A350 order for A330NEO. Their stated goal is to turn TP into a TATL LCC. As if that wasn't clear enough, I would guess that Macau is not even in the top 10 Asian markets from Portugal.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 44):
I think this "obsession" about HKG

It is a significant market from LIS, however. And so are PVG, PEK, BKK, NRT, and ICN.

DolphinAir747 · Mon Jan 11, 2016 4:43 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 44):
I think this "obsession" about HKG here is because of the anglo-saxon (and likely finance-oriented LON/NYC) nature of this forum

I think the global air travel market and not just A.net has this obsession. HKG is a HUGE premium market as is SIN.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 44):
Interestingly, there is no LIS-PEK flight yet.

Surprises me too. Portugal has the most Chinese investments in Southern Europe (actually anywhere in Europe after Germany, France, and the UK). As for MFM, the best it can hope for now is for CX to fly HKG LAS for which there is more of a case than HKG LIS (as discussed on the AA LAX HKG thread).

SCQ83 · Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:42 pm

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 46):
I think the global air travel market and not just A.net has this obsession. HKG is a HUGE premium market as is SIN.

The issue is not how premium is...but the connections with Lisbon or Portugal in particular. Sao Paulo might be the largest Latin American premium market but it doesn't make it have links to Moscow or Oslo, yet it have to Porto.

Many people here often forget that HKG has strong links with the Anglo-Saxon and financial world (which is somehow the same thing

) but for other countries like Spain and Portugal, the relation with Hong Kong is much less obvious.

DolphinAir747 · Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:52 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 47):
Many people here often forget that HKG has strong links with the Anglo-Saxon and financial world (which is somehow the same thing ) but for other countries like Spain and Portugal, the relation with Hong Kong is much less obvious.

HKG is still quite a large market to Latin America as is SIN (I guess the rumored CX service to MEX isn't happening though?) and as for Spain and Portugal, they aren't huge markets to Asia to start out with and CX is already selling seats to MAD just as SQ has two flights to BCN. Not comparable to HKG/SIN-LHR but decent coverage nonetheless and more than MFM can ever hope for.

[Edited 2016-01-11 09:53:01]

Planeflyer · Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:47 pm

Quoting Dolphinair 747

Definitely not on TP which lacks China service. I think the majority were going via the ME3 or AF/LH/BA. [/quote]

Thanks for pointing out that TP does not fly to China. Did not know that.

I made the comment about China as I just returned and the people I do business with are in a definite panic.

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