F9 Adds 42 Routes

mariner · Thu Jan 07, 2016 7:51 pm

Quoting Atlanta (Reply 49):
I suppose I should've googled first and asked later, nevertheless do you have any idea what the issues with Massport was/were?

After 9/11, traffic DEN-BOS fell off a cliff.

At the same time, Massport was demolishing (or renovating big time) the terminal that Frontier was using and couldn't offer Frontier any other gate. Frontier was basically told to pound sand - that there were plenty of gates at MHT and PVD.

Frontier did find a gate, leased usage from US Airways but at a prohibitively expensive rental and that, together with the low load factors, killed the service.

mariner

mariner · Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:35 pm

The route map has been updated to reflect the new routes - getting a bit crowded.

:

mariner

commavia · Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:48 pm

I find two things notable about this huge route announcement:

First, as already commented upon, this network expansion appears fairly complimentary with Spirit, which is notable given the speculation this week about the prospect for a future merger.

Second, it is interesting to reflect on how the competitive landscape and dynamics have evolved in the U.S. domestic market in the last few decades - specifically, how in at least in terms of network design and development, Spirit and Frontier have inherited the disruptive, "maverick" market position once inhabited by Southwest, and Southwest has begun behaving much more like a network airline. 30-40 years ago, there was also an airline that was adding routes left and right, with minimal consideration for connectivity and instead a focus on leveraging its lower costs to stimulate demand in high-O&D markets. And that airline was Southwest. Today, the gap between Southwest's costs and those of the network airlines has progressively narrowed, and Southwest's network is increasingly built around longer average stage lengths and - dare I say it - hub connectivity. Spirit and Frontier, meanwhile, are using costs far lower than Southwest and other airlines to add flights in busy local markets that are either unserved nonstop by network carriers or served but at higher fares. It's like the whole cycle is repeating itself.

masseybrown · Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:52 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 52):
It's like the whole cycle is repeating itself.

Exactly. What is still to come, I think, is Southwest moving into Europe.

RJNUT · Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:55 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 52):
stage lengths and - dare I say it - hub connectiv

I LUV when people use that term in regards to WN...they hate it..(not hating on WN however,) but HQ needs to come straight with terminology. ICT-STL is perfect example of "connectivity" aims!

jetblue1965 · Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:58 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 53):

Exactly. What is still to come, I think, is Southwest moving into Europe.

They need the right planes first. Even from BOS, I don't think a bunch of 737max will really get them that far.

dabpit · Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:01 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 51):
getting a bit crowded

Yes it is but they are missing a number of areas. BOS (PVD or the NE in general) and PIT are missing, there are a limited amount of flights from the New York area (LGA) and IAD (or DCA), there are still gaps in the West that need to be filled, they only have a few flights to Mexico and the Caribbean, and they have no flights to Central or South America.

adamblang · Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:04 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 52):
First, as already commented upon, this network expansion appears fairly complimentary with Spirit, which is notable given the speculation this week about the prospect for a future merger.

I imagine complimentary-to-Spirit route structure has more to do with forecasters not expecting there to be enough bottom-of-market travelers for the two airlines to share. If we're seeing once-a-day and less-than-daily service, that signals a thin market. Two airlines fighting over 75-150 passengers a day is a surefire way for both to fail.

tortugamon · Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:10 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 52):
I find two things notable about this huge route announcement:

Great post. Completely agree. I would just add that I think that NK and F9 have a long runway ahead as well. Still a ton of opportunity out there and there will be for quite a few years to come.

I hope the combined NK/F9 takes the Frontier brand and livery.

Quoting jetblue1965 (Reply 55):
They need the right planes first

I think they will have been heavily consulted in the design of the NMA/MOM. I don't think WN is close to needing it especially with the MAX's growth but I do think 10 years from now it will certainly be necessary.

If I am Boeing I am trying to refurb as many 767s as I can and practically give them away to emerging widebody operators like they did with WestJet. AS, FR, and B6 represent other opportunities.

tortugamon

mariner · Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:10 pm

Quoting dabpit (Reply 56):
Yes it is but they are missing a number of areas. BOS (PVD or the NE in general) and PIT are missing, there are a limited amount of flights from the New York area (LGA) and IAD (or DCA), there are still gaps in the West that need to be filled, they only have a few flights to Mexico and the Caribbean, and they have no flights to Central or South America.

I meant that some parts of the map that are filled are getting a bit crowded - LOL - and I wonder if they need a different map.

mariner

dabpit · Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:12 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 59):
I meant that some parts of the map that are filled are getting a bit crowded - LOL - and I wonder if they need a different map.

They should get a map like the one B6 has.

commavia · Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:15 pm

Quoting adamblang (Reply 57):
I imagine complimentary-to-Spirit route structure has more to do with forecasters not expecting there to be enough bottom-of-market travelers for the two airlines to share. If we're seeing once-a-day and less-than-daily service, that signals a thin market. Two airlines fighting over 75-150 passengers a day is a surefire way for both to fail.

Completely agree.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 58):
I would just add that I think that NK and F9 have a long runway ahead as well. Still a ton of opportunity out there and there will be for quite a few years to come.

Indeed - Frontier, Allegiant and especially Spirit have clearly demonstrated that despite the hysterical media coverage and constant whining, there is definitely a huge potential market for their ULCC offering in the U.S. domestic market. The prospect of a Spirit-Frontier merger is interesting - it seems to make sense from a fleet and network standpoint, but the labor integration could be messy and it's difficult to see ahead to how the deal would be structured financially giving the present position of the two airlines.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 58):
I hope the combined NK/F9 takes the Frontier brand and livery.

My personal opinion, but if there is to be a merger between the two, I'd personally submit that Spirit is the stronger brand at this point for a hypothetical combined carrier.

tortugamon · Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:23 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 61):
My personal opinion, but if there is to be a merger between the two, I'd personally submit that Spirit is the stronger brand at this point for a hypothetical combined carrier.

I think Spirit is the more widely known brand but I think they have done some damage to that brand the last few years. They have introduced the country to modern day to what an ULCC represents and I think that has come with some brand damage. Frontier is coming from a very different place and especially in the West many will have positive thoughts about the carrier. A hard call for sure.

How about 'Frontier Spirit'!

tortugamon

mariner · Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:27 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 61):
The prospect of a Spirit-Frontier merger is interesting - it seems to make sense from a fleet and network standpoint, but the labor integration could be messy and it's difficult to see ahead to how the deal would be structured financially giving the present position of the two airlines.

The prospect of a Frontier/Spirit merger is entirely media - and a.net - initiated. There's been nothing from Spirit and Frontier appears to be running in the other direction.

Based own an article posted by Tortugamon in another thread, Franke, as Chairman, tried to persuade Spirit to buy Frontier when it was on the market and they could have had it for peanuts, but Spirit didn't want to know.

So Franke left Spirit and did it himself, and now it looks to me as if he's giving Spirit the finger.

Anything's possible, I guess. Offer Frranke enough money and maybe he'd say yes, but it's likely he'll make more money out of the IPO and, as at Spirit and probably Wizz Air, the 2PO.

mariner

GentFromAlaska · Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:07 pm

Glad to see them returning to BNA with three new city pairs.

Frontier14 · Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:08 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 59):
I meant that some parts of the map that are filled are getting a bit crowded - LOL - and I wonder if they need a different map.

Quoting dabpit (Reply 60):
They should get a map like the one B6 has.

I would agree that their current map (with all these new additions) is now not an easy one to decipher. Maybe, just maybe, the F9 technology folks are already working on this.

The B6 map is an efficient and easy one to use and is visually clean. It would be a good model to consider for Frontier.

Frontier 14

mcg · Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:21 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 48):
Quoting mcg (Reply 47):
So slightly off topic but, any indications or rumor about DEN - MSO? Perhaps the dickie birds may have chirped a bit.

DEN-MSO comes back - 4 x weekly - beginning of May.

Thank you - chirp chirp!

FlyPNS1 · Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:22 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 52):
It's like the whole cycle is repeating itself.

Yes and no. Early WN and today's F9/NK are quite different business models.

- Early WN started out catering to short-haul traffic (whereas F9/NK focus on much longer stage lengths) and WN catered to business travelers by offering frequency on many of the short haul routes. F9/NK don't compete for business travelers and provide minimal frequency.
- Early WN strived to prove you could offer low fares and provide good service as well. F9/NK certainly offer low fares, but care little about customer service.
- Early WN strived to maintain operational excellence with extremely good on-time numbers and baggage handling, whereas F9/NK seem to almost enjoy being operationally poor performers.
- Early WN's presence often stimulated a lot of new traffic because in part legacy carriers would aggressively match WN, whereas the stimulation effect of F9/NK is far less. With a few notable exceptions, the impact of F9/NK in most airports is in the noise....attributable in part because of the low frequency service.
- Early WN worked to build a loyal customer base that would repeat and provide a lot of word of mouth marketing. Neither F9 nor NK operate this way. They just rely solely on low fares to bring back customers and if customers don't stay loyal, neither F9 nor NK are interested in building a long-term customer base.
- Early WN had a lot of growth potential (which still hasn't been fully realized) whereas F9/NK are actually far more limited than many realize. They can certainly both grow for a while, but they will run out of opportunities pretty quickly unless they change their business models.

dc10lover · Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:29 pm

SEA-ORD

AA / AS / UA now F9. WN to MDW. Still waiting for DL to enter the ORD market.

mariner · Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:36 pm

Quoting mcg (Reply 66):
Thank you - chirp chirp!

Just for the record, the smaller cities BIS, BZN and CID come back as well, rom DEN, and DEN-DSM is still there.

mariner

mcg · Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:38 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 69):

Quoting mcg (Reply 66):
Thank you - chirp chirp!

Just for the record, the smaller cities BIS, BZN and CID come back as well, rom DEN, and DEN-DSM is still there.

Any idea on what the timing will be? I thought this years evening turn worked better than last years late DEN - MSO, very early MSO - DEN.

mariner · Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:42 pm

Quoting mcg (Reply 70):
Any idea on what the timing will be? I thought this years evening turn worked better than last years late DEN - MSO, very early MSO - DEN.

5.30 pm from DEN, 8.30 pm from MSO.

DEN-FSD comes back as well.

mariner

mcg · Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:45 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 71):
Quoting mcg (Reply 70):
Any idea on what the timing will be? I thought this years evening turn worked better than last years late DEN - MSO, very early MSO - DEN.

5.30 pm from DEN, 8.30 pm from MSO.

DEN-FSD comes back as well.

Thanks! I've just concluded I prolly could have simply gone to the F9 website and saved you some trouble. Thanks again!

stlgph · Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:46 pm

42 new route combinations. Remember this thread - would be fun to re-visit in a year and see which ones remain and which ones are gone.

Quoting Frontier14 (Reply 45):
B6 has made their niche there, and is very successful with it.

Which is why a nice collection of their under-performing and under-expectation routes are from Boston.

jetblue1965 · Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:51 pm

Quoting DC10LOVER (Reply 68):

I'm still impressed they wanna make SEA a hub but have such a glaring gap as ORD/CHI.

OzarkD9S · Thu Jan 07, 2016 11:31 pm

Quoting Lexy (Reply 39):

For what it's worth, STL is an awful airport. Why they are the focus of attention is beyond me. Just my opinion.

Just your opinion. STL has done a lot of interior work recently and I find it MUCH better than it used to be from an ambiance standpoint. Lighter, brighter and a few more concessions. Just flew through it the week before Christmas and it has improved quite a bit in the last year or so.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 40):

What's wrong with the WN connecting experience at STL? Most of the problems with STL relate to the Main Terminal and to various O&D-related issues (traffic circulation, connection between Metrolink and the East Terminal, etc.).

Nothings really wrong with the WN area. Plus they have the ability to move down into D if they so choose. As I said, the main terminal (T1) is much nicer these days and not much you can do about the exterior road infrastructure without shelling out major cash for minimal effect. I may be a bit biased towards my home airport, but it has improved quite a bit all things considered.

joeljack · Thu Jan 07, 2016 11:38 pm

Looks like OMA-MCO was added too 4 days a week Th,F,Su,M starting in Mid-February (ending early April). Talk about close booking period!! I can't imaging those February flights will be more than 50% full! March should be fine with spring break and all.

mtnwest1979 · Thu Jan 07, 2016 11:43 pm

Quoting dabpit (Reply 60):
They should get a map like the one B6 has.

No, because I like to see, with one click, a map that shows all routes operated, no matter how busy. If it had a zoom in feature, that would be good enough.

LambertMan · Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:22 am

Quoting Lexy (Reply 39):
For what it's worth, STL is an awful airport. Why they are the focus of attention is beyond me. Just my opinion.

Well, if the airport is the focus then why is LGA busting at the seams? The rationale makes zero sense. Bottom line, St. Louis is still a major market with an underrated corporate community.

Mr. Commavia makes an interesting point about F9 and NK assuming the role as mavericks. Really a fantastic analysis.

georgiabill · Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:23 am

Perhaps a very stupid question on my part. But would it not be wiser to open fewer new routes and operate daily?

I would think if you want market share between CVG-LAX, CLE-LAX,SFO and PDX even if only seasonally would require a daily service. Same would go for any of the new announced routes. I might be wrong but some of the flight schedules do not seem to be practical to me for traveling.

Just my 2 cents

GeorgiaBill

DTWPurserBoy · Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:24 am

I wish they would return to PHF. Our fares are outrageous and most people just drive the 40 minutes to RIC.

BravoEchoNov · Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:31 am

A new route that was missed was SLC - ATL

slcdeltarumd11 · Fri Jan 08, 2016 1:06 am

Quoting BravoEchoNov (Reply 81):
A new route that was missed was SLC - ATL

Wow that is brave

rj777 · Fri Jan 08, 2016 1:24 am

So MKE gets a nonstop to PHL?

lat41 · Fri Jan 08, 2016 1:28 am

Quoting clrd4t8koff (Reply 21):
It amazes me that the 6th largest CSA in the U.S. (BOS) has no service by F9 and hasn't for years. Surely they could make BOS-CLE, BOS-PHL, BOS-DEN work?

Withering competition and the near saturation and high costs of BOS perhaps wisely keeps F9 away. Perhaps approaching the market from a bit further South at PVD would be viable.

Frontier14 · Fri Jan 08, 2016 1:59 am

Quoting georgiabill (Reply 79):
I would think if you want market share between CVG-LAX, CLE-LAX,SFO and PDX even if only seasonally would require a daily service. Same would go for any of the new announced routes. I might be wrong but some of the flight schedules do not seem to be practical to me for traveling.

Market share is not what F9 is about these days. It is about making money on a route. If a route does not perform to F9's expectations guess what, it is history.

This schedule extension has seen a dramatic shift in route strategy. Previously the effort was for a daily flight where possible. For whatever the reasons, competition, fleet resources, staffing or increased revenue opportunities, Frontier has taken a page from their past play book and gone with less than daily. If the demand happens additional flights are an option.

Frontier 14

CIDFlyer · Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:16 am

CID-DEN come back too 3x weekly sun tues thursday looks like a 7:15p flight out to DEN

flyguy89 · Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:48 am

I think it's interesting that they've clearly abandoned their previous strategy of daily or more frequencies only. That said, I think with these 3-4x weekly frequencies, many of these routes will do quite well.

knope2001 · Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:26 am

Quoting enilria (Thread starter):

A lot of PHL, ORD, SFO, MCO. What was dropped????

Looking at mid-July versus last July, these seem to be the year-over-year drops.

ATL ORD
ATL MCO
ATL PHL
FLL CVG
IAD ATL
IAD DTW
IAD CVG
IAD MEM
IAD LAS
IAD MEM
MSP ATL
MSP IAD
MSP PHL
MSP TTN
MSY ATL
ORD IAD
PHX IAH
RSW DEN
UST TTN

These are the markets with the biggest weekly domestic departure increase over last summer
28 mco
28 mke
17 phl
15 sfo
12 phx
11 bna
10 mci
10 sea
10 stl

These are the markets wit the biggest weekly domestic departure decrease over last summer
-42 iad
-32 atl
-21 msp
-21 tpa
-19 ord
-17 den
-10 aus
-9 cvg

Virtually all of the additions announced today, plus many of the season summer resumptions which are returning from 2016, operated 3x or 4x per week. Most markets last summer ran at least 7x/week but 3-4x week is the norm in the large majority of non-DEN markets. Here are the change in nonstop domestic markets for summer 2016 versus summer 2015 in several notable Frontier cities:

10 phl
8 mco
6 cle
5 mke
5 phx
5 ord
4 sfo
3 bna
3 mci
3 rdu
3 las
2 sea
2 ind
2 dfw
2 cvg
2 aus
1 stl
1 msy
1 atl
0 den
-2 tpa
-3 msp
-8 iad

This was a bunch of manual tallying -- if Enilria is kind enough to do a complete yoy comparison it will show a fuller picture.

mariner · Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:37 am

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 88):
This was a bunch of manual tallying -- if Enilria is kind enough to do a complete yoy comparison it will show a fuller picture.

What will will be forgotten or ignored in that is that the fleet will still be down by summer, over last year.

Five x A321 have come in, but more than a dozen A319 are leaving in the first few months of this year. So even if the A321's continue to come in at, say, one a month, there's still a shortfall until about July.

And the next A321 isn't in the production list yet, so it may not even be one a month. Maybe they've got something up their sleeve - a couple of A320Neo's perhaps - but I haven't seen any sign of that in the Neo production list yet.

mariner

[Edited 2016-01-07 20:48:08]

mke717spotter · Fri Jan 08, 2016 5:40 am

Well, MKE desperately needed more airline competition, and could still use some for flights to the East Coast. DL nearly doubled its fares from MKE to most cities after F9 left. Hopefully MKE's new airport director can use his marketing skills to attract airlines such as B6, G4, or even encourage DL to offer more non-stops. WN is so dominant in this market though that I doubt many airlines are willing to take them on.

izbtmnhd · Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:24 pm

It's amazing how many times LCCs and ULCCs have failed at IAD

-- izbtm

tortugamon · Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:40 pm

Trying to determine how many of these are NK routes. I added NO/YES based on my best guess.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 88):

ATL ORD - YES
ATL MCO - YES
ATL PHL - YES
FLL CVG - NO
IAD ATL - NO
IAD DTW - NO
IAD CVG - NO
IAD MEM - NO
IAD LAS - NO
IAD MEM - NO
MSP ATL - YES
MSP IAD - NO
MSP PHL - YES
MSP TTN - NO
MSY ATL - YES
ORD IAD - NO
PHX IAH - NO
RSW DEN - NO
UST TTN - NO

Thanks for this list. What it appears that although F9 is launching 47 new routes they will actually be completing less with NK than they did last year as they are adding only 3 routes that compete with them but are eliminating at least 6 where they do. Very complimentary.

Quoting mariner (Reply 89):
What will will be forgotten or ignored in that is that the fleet will still be down by summer, over last year.

Well I am not sure how important the fleet size is when their capacity is going to grow by 20% just like it did in 2015.

Solid article about Biffle, Baldanza, F9, and NK:

http://linkis.com/www.thestreet.com/st/HEFLd

tortugamon

psa1011 · Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:44 pm

How do NK and F9 keep finding room to expand at ORD? I thought it was overcrowded, with VX and others having issues adding flights.

Osubuckeyes · Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:51 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 92):
Trying to determine how many of these are NK routes. I added NO/YES based on my best guess.

The interesting thing is that a bunch of those "NO" routes were AA or UA routes that were matched in price, which means that they have been somewhat susceptible to US3 competition as well as NK. For instance PHX-IAH fares have dramatically gone up since F9 left the market.

tortugamon · Fri Jan 08, 2016 5:05 pm

Quoting Osubuckeyes (Reply 94):
The interesting thing is that a bunch of those "NO" routes were AA or UA routes that were matched in price, which means that they have been somewhat susceptible to US3 competition as well as NK. For instance PHX-IAH fares have dramatically gone up since F9 left the market.

True, interesting. With F9 growing at a 20% pace and having made ~$115 Million in just the last three quarters though it doesn't necessarily mean that those routes weren't profitable, just that maybe they could make more money elsewhere. I wonder if Texas has been getting too much capacity growth the last couple of years.

It really seems like they are trying to spread themselves out more than in the past.

tortugamon

MIflyer12 · Fri Jan 08, 2016 5:57 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 92):
Quoting mariner (Reply 89):
What will will be forgotten or ignored in that is that the fleet will still be down by summer, over last year.

Well I am not sure how important the fleet size is when their capacity is going to grow by 20% just like it did in 2015.

Solid article about Biffle, Baldanza, F9, and NK:

http://linkis.com/www.thestreet.com/st/HEFLd

It's important when knope2001, mariner and enilria are discussing flight frequency. Reed's article which you hyperlinked doesn't define the measure in that 20% growth: fleet count, frequency gained through higher utlization or shorter average stage length, seats per day, ASMs...

mariner · Fri Jan 08, 2016 6:03 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 92):
Well I am not sure how important the fleet size is when their capacity is going to grow by 20% just like it did in 2015.

I think fleet size - and feet usage - is always important in "whole airline" terms, especially when growth is being achieved with fewer aircraft - thus higher aircraft utilisation.

It surely helps bring CASM down, and the intention is to arrive at a lower CASM than Spirit.

mariner

tortugamon · Fri Jan 08, 2016 6:15 pm

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 96):
Reed's article which you hyperlinked doesn't define the measure in that 20% growth: fleet count, frequency gained through higher utlization or shorter average stage length, seats per day, ASMs...

Agreed it doesn't but I would think the assumption would be number of seats unless it specifies. Thats how I read it.

Quoting mariner (Reply 97):
I think fleet size - and feet usage - is always important in "whole airline" terms, especially when growth is being achieved with fewer aircraft - thus higher aircraft utilisation.

True of course, it does matter how they go about raising that 20% capacity but I find it hard to believe they can do it without increasing the number of aircraft they operate.

tortugamon

mariner · Fri Jan 08, 2016 6:21 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 98):
True of course, it does matter how they go about raising that 20% capacity but I find it hard to believe they can do it without increasing the number of aircraft they operate.

That was really my point - LOL - why I raised this.

Unless they have some secret deal for more aircraft, quickly, which is unknown to anyone outside the boardroom, it would seem they are increasing capacity with fewer aircraft than last year.

mariner

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