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fcogafa
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 12:03 pm

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 114):
Hence why all the Airbus orders and no mention of Boeing - as a US company they're still banned from trading with Iran

There are a lot of US made parts on Airbuses, does that affect the issue too?
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 12:07 pm

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 114):
Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 105):
I think Iran Air will mostly buy B777-300ERs for their long haul routes - or they will at least lease some until the B777-X

No they will not.

How do you know?

Unless you are an in with the Iranian government as an insider in the purchase/lease negotiations and/or you have uncle intel?
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 12:41 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 116):
How do you know?

a) They are about to buy 114 Airbus aircraft, Airbus do not currently sell 77W.

b) They have no experience with ETOPS or whatever its called today so they will opt for 4 engined aircraft for long range flights until they get their engineering and flight ops certified.

c) US companies are not yet allowed to do business with Iran even though sanctions have been dropped and it doesn't look like Iran is going to sit around and wait.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 116):
Unless you are an in with the Iranian government as an insider in the purchase/lease negotiations and/or you have uncle intel?


Yes and I'm a white Christian male which according to you gives me all kinds of life privilages, one of which is clairvoyance. Either that or I just use my judgement after reading reports, assessing capabilities and looking at the current geopolitical situation, you choose.

[Edited 2016-01-17 04:44:35]
 
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yeogeo
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 12:46 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 105):
I think Iran Air will mostly buy B777-300ERs for their long haul routes - or they will at least lease some until the B777-X comes up on the market. I am less sure about B747-8i but who knows.

An article in Bloomberg lends some support to the triple seven assertion:

"Iran is also considering the Boeing Co. 737 narrow-body jet to serve the domestic market and twin-aisle 777s for long-haul routes, the official said. It’s also looking at smaller planes from Bombardier Inc. and Embraer SA."

(The quoted "official" being an unnamed Iranian official.)

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016...craft-for-iran-air-eyes-more-deals

Seems all the major players will be invited to the party in due time. Will be interesting to witness.
Will they by used or new? The end of Delta's "cheap" 777's?

yeo
 
WIederling
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 1:13 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 111):
Iran: Plane engine falls off into Tehran locality, pilot makes emergency landing

They managed a landing without loss of life.
Others were not as fortunate in the past.
There are actually a couple around:
Flights In Which Engine Came Off (by Thrust May 8 2004 in Civil Aviation)

[Edited 2016-01-17 05:17:14]
 
aryonoco
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 1:18 pm

This Bloomberg article has some interesting quotes:

"The deal includes a mix of new and used jets from the A320 family and the out-of-production A340s, an Iranian official said"

So the 114 aircraft are going to be a bunch of A320s and A340s. Very sensible. Given Iran's lack of experience with ETOPS and current oil prices (especially for Iran) and the glut of barely used A340s, this is very sensible.

Not to mention that the A340 can service any potential long haul route Iran air might want to fly, from IKA-SYD to IKA-LAX.

"Iran is also considering the Boeing Co. 737 narrow-body jet to serve the domestic market and twin-aisle 777s for long-haul routes, the official said. It’s also looking at smaller planes from Bombardier Inc. and Embraer SA"

So the 737 and 777 might be considered in future. Also, there is going to be room for RJ orders. No mention of S100 though.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 21):
In no way do I believe the Iranian economy needs 400+ aircraft. It is still too much of a command economy for that level of demand.

"Iran raised its requirement for aircraft to at least 581 planes over the next decade, up from an earlier estimate of 400, according to the state-run Mehr news agency, citing Maqsoud As’adi-Samani, secretary of the Association of Iranian Airlines."

Make of it what you want. 581 seems like a very specific number. But if this is orders we are talking about, over the next decade, and also considering huge potential for regional jets and narrow bodies, over 10 years, they might just get there.

It will require a herculean effort to build the underlying infrastructure needed for such a massive air travel expansion.

Artice: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...craft-for-iran-air-eyes-more-deals
 
Flyingsottsman
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 1:32 pm

I recon if the sanctions get lifted the A330 will be the front runner for IR and maybe some second hand A340s, those jet are realy
not that old and quite a few airlines have them parked so the A340 looks a good bet for IR too.
 
Heinkel
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 1:32 pm

Quoting TC957 (Reply 112):

Quoting Navigator (Reply 101):
As soon as US companies see business opportunities in Iran, and that will happen fast, there will be flights

I can see Chinese, Korean and Japanese companies getting in with Iran before the Americans to be honest.

And don't forget the German industry. Be sure they are waiting in the wings. A friend of mine, who works in the aviation industry, recently travelled to Iran.
 
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nimool
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 2:24 pm

According to an Iranian source Tasnim News: (In Persian)
http://tnews.ir/news/4A3855903442.ht...اس-را-تحویل-می-گیرد

Iran is buying number of new and used Airbuses form A320 and A340 family and the first one to be delivered around July 2016.

Then again Im not sure how reliable or how true this source is, as i could not see it anywhere else in english or nothing from airbus official.  

[Edited 2016-01-17 06:24:57]
 
bobdino
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 2:28 pm

Quoting nimool (Reply 123):
Then again Im not sure how reliable or how true this source is, as i could not see it anywhere else in english or nothing from airbus official.

There seems to be all sorts of variations on the story going 'round. All seem to agree on 114 aircraft from Airbus.

I've seen French reports talking of A320s and A330s, English-language reports of A320s and A340s, initial delivery by March 20, and in 2016, as the report you linked attests.

Airbus has officially commented, but only before the sanctions were lifted to say, paraphrased, "we'll happily sell planes to Iran once the sanctions are lifted and we won't get in trouble."

It'll be interesting to see what gets dug up on Monday/Tuesday by the French and Iranian press corps.
 
TC957
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 2:34 pm

I predict Iranian airlines will get a good few cargo aircraft too now. Perhaps Airbus has a number of the slow-selling A332F's in with the 114 total being banded about.
 
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nimool
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 2:44 pm

Quoting bobdino (Reply 124):
Airbus has officially commented, but only before the sanctions were lifted to say, paraphrased, "we'll happily sell planes to Iran once the sanctions are lifted and we won't get in trouble."

True I did read that as well, but after the press conference (today) couldn't find anything by airbus officials.
Also couldn't find on delivering dates in english language articles. excited that you seen in french so must be something legit.
Yes, cant wait to see what is going to come up in the news in coming weeks.
 
IR800
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 3:00 pm

Quoting bthebest (Reply 113):
Hence why all the Airbus orders and no mention of Boeing - as a US company they're still banned from trading with Iran.

Both Boeing and GE have received license from the U.S. Treasury Department to deal with Iran.

[Edited 2016-01-17 07:00:45]
 
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readytotaxi
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 3:20 pm

It's a funny old world. US impose new sanctions on Iran.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35338901
 
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pvjin
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 3:28 pm

Quoting readytotaxi (Reply 128):

It's a funny old world. US impose new sanctions on Iran.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35338901

What gives Americans right to have and test whatever deadly weaponry they want, and even sell it to repressive regimes like Saudi-Arabia, yet it's not okay for Iran to posses or test such weapons?
 
Chaostheory
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 3:39 pm

I'm guessing many of the A340s listed here will end up in Iran:

http://www.airbus.com/company/market/asset/aircraft-available/

Quads will do well out of THR/IKA.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 4:16 pm

Quoting Chaostheory (Reply 115):
many of the A340s listed here will end up in Iran:

I'm surprised there is only one 346 on the list.
 
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moo
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 4:20 pm

And its all swings and roundabouts - new US sanctions have been levied already, as punishment for Iran violating a UN ballistics missile ban with a test a few weeks back.
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 4:28 pm

Quoting readytotaxi (Reply 113):
It's a funny old world. US impose new sanctions on Iran.

I have no link yet - will post it whenever it becomes available. Probably a live feed on RT

Obama to speak at 10:45am Eastern Time on Iran

     
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 4:31 pm

Quoting Chaostheory (Reply 115):
Quads will do well out of THR/IKA.

Iran Air will get Boeing.
Mahan Air will get Airbus.

Used/leased for a start then they will buy new generation airplanes.

     
 
TC957
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 4:42 pm

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 116):
I'm surprised there is only one 346 on the list.

Indeed - what about the ex-TG 346's ?   
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 5:19 pm

Quoting Navigator (Reply 89):
And before you just laugh at a certain number of aircraft mentioned I think you need to estimate the growth potential of Iran.

1. Command and control economies do not have as much growth potential as commercial economies. They mis-allocate resources.
2. The corruption index is 27. Iran is competing with countries with a corruption index of 69 and 70. The lower the corruption index, the higher the profits must be (due to risk of keeping profits).
3. I am putting in growth potential for Iran. But Iran could have been flying newer aircraft than some of the ancient birds they fly. That tells us the profits are not there.

I have no doubt Iran will take delivery of a very large number of aircraft. I posted 200 to 250.

Current fleets:
Iran Air: 51
Mahan Air: 57
ATA (Iran): 10
Atrak: 2
Caspian: 11
Chabahar: 18
Iran Air tours: 10 (5 in Iran Air's fleet, so do not double count)
Iran Aseman Airlines: 34
Iranian Naft Airlines: 10 (all Fokkers)
Kish Air: 11
Iranian Naft Airlines: 13
Payam: 5 (4 stored)
Pouya: 6
Qeshm Air: 16
Taban: 9
Zargos: 19 (almost half MD-80)


That sums up to an impressive 277 aircraft. But many of those aircraft are low utilization or stored. I noticed a number are A320s already and thus unlikely to need immediate replacement. Yes, Iran had access to used aircraft before. They fact they didn't replace really old aircraft tells me the economy isn't there. Iran will also join the upgauging trend. Many of those low utilization Fokkers will be replaced by a small number of A320s flown far more hours per day (or 737s, same point).


I still only see a need for 200 to 250 aircraft. But I do see a need for that quantity. So this order for 114 (mix new and used) is just a start. But Iran is just not laying the economic foundations for 400 to 450 in a short timeframe. If we're talking very long term...

Part of this is my opinion of hubbing. Between two city pairs, the hubbing airline will take 65% to 80% of the traffic as connections enable better frequency which attracts more passengers (and allows more optimal yield management). India with their policies that inhibit hubbing are a great example of this. Do we really expect Iran to become a major hubbing country.

Iran will have to open their market to create demand and their airlines are just not operated for turn times and other factors necessary to be fully competitive.

I hope to be proven wrong, but a corruption index of 27 says that is extremely unlikely. The more I find out about transparency international, the more I trust their ratings. What is Iran doing to increase their corruption index? Yes, Iran has oil, but for the next two years that will not bring in the historical quantity of funds.

I am predicting over a doubling of RPKs. Newer aircraft not only enable higher utilization, they require it to pay for the airframes. Combined with narrow body/RJ upgauging, I keep coming back to the same quantity of aircraft: 200 to 250. I simply doubt Iran would nurture an Indigo with a 'neutral' international hub.

My curiosity, it what engines for the A320s...

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 102):
Either that or I just use my judgement after reading reports, assessing capabilities and looking at the current geopolitical situation, you choose.

Good point. Iranian airlines have some 'growing up to do.' In effect, they have been protected for a long time. I'm curious to see the ME3 inroads/partnerships.

I would like your opinion on if any Iranian airline should become part of the EY equity alliance. Thanks in advance.

Quoting kurtverbose (Reply 87):
When you see that 400+ aircraft it does look far too many. But that's orders, not aircraft operating concurrently. They will probably buy a lot of older jets now that are available and retire these when new build ones are delivered.

I took that into account. I also look at current utilization. There is a reason high utilization airlines like Indigo always buy new. New aircraft can be flown a few more hours per day than older airframes. Airframes 7 to about 14 years are in a mid group, then 15 to say 25... And a final group. If you look in the field, there is a distribution of utilization that goes down with aircraft age. Heck, look at the fleets of WN and DL; they are not operated as if they are one homogeneous narrowbody fleet, the newest aircraft fly more hours per week while the oldest fly about half as many hours per week. Yes, I said per week as for example DL schedules more flights on a Monday, Thursday, and Friday than they do on a Tuesday or Wednesday. But those MD-80s sit... a lot. That is how a low fixed cost but high variable cost airframe pays for itself, it only flies when there are profits.

The Iranian airlines are about to have a major shock into the required operational model. The airlines days of flying an airframe only a few segments a day (and off required gauge) will come to an end quickly. We will see a tremendous increase in passengers flown per aircraft thanks to new high utilization airframes.


Lightsaber
 
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Spiderguy252
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 5:55 pm

So, when are we likely to hear an announcement from Iran Air/Airbus about any order?

Today? Tomorrow? Next week?
 
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JerseyFlyer
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 6:01 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 121):
The Iranian airlines are about to have a major shock into the required operational model.

This represents a substantial partnership opportunity for an established airline (group). I wonder who the Iranians would favour - airlines based in Europe, Middle East, Russia, US?
 
rutankrd
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 6:10 pm

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 123):
This represents a substantial partnership opportunity for an established airline (group). I wonder who the Iranians would favour - airlines based in Europe, Middle East, Russia, US?

Absolutely no one south of the Gulf , Pakistan or Afghanistan !

Only Russia Iraq and the Lebanon and possibly France.

The Shias won't work with any Sunni nation period !
 
parapente
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 6:24 pm

Great to hear we shall see the A340 family flying with a new airline.It will do well with them for starters.No one knows how long the oil price will remain at circa $30 a barrel but at that price the planes will be a steal!If they use some -300's then there will be engine commonality with cfm A320 CEO,s too.Any -500's will give them 'reach' to anywhere they might wish to fly to as well.
Will be interesting to see what mix this first tranche of orders actually are.
 
WIederling
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 6:36 pm

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 123):
pages.

Iranian Airlines have been flying to Europe all the time.
Only problem no fuel due to embagoed banking.
http://german.irib.ir/nachrichten/in...-maschinen-tanken-wieder-in-europa ( use google translate )
Tank stops in Belarus, a 1.5h detour.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 6:39 pm

Quoting rutankrd (Reply 124):
The Shias won't work with any Sunni nation period !

That is complete nonsense. Iran does billions of dollars worth of business with Turkey, Pakistan, Dubai, Qatar and Oman...to name a few Sunni majority countries.

Indonesia and Malaysia also happens to be Sunni majority countries and I doubt Iran would have any issue dealing with them, if it made economic sense.
 
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mariner
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 6:45 pm

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 105):
Make of it what you want. 581 seems like a very specific number. But if this is orders we are talking about, over the next decade, and also considering huge potential for regional jets and narrow bodies, over 10 years, they might just get there.

As above, even the longest journey begins with a single step, and I think there's a lot of euphoria in Iran and in some of the western media about what will happen - excited to be on the journey - as it should be.

The Bloomberg article also has this:

"Iran also is interested in Airbus wide-body planes including A350s and the A380 double-decker as it seeks to add destinations in the U.S., Canada, Australia and Europe to directly serve the Iranian population scattered there rather than connecting through Dubai or Istanbul hubs, the Iranian official said."

Australia has pretty good trade with Iran and will have more now, and while there are some Iranians in Oz, it isn't a huge population. So I think flights to Australia are probably Iran Air's bucket list and I think it will a few years before such flights actually happen.

It's a pretty exciting time, though - the rebuilding of a country's relationships with the west as well as the rebuilding of an airline. It isn't in the same league as the fall of the Berlin Wall, but it is a similar concept and the great (airline) sadness of that, for me, was that Interflug didn't survive.

What matters now is whether the people who actually run Iran Air have the vision to embrace the possibilities or whether it will be a government toy.

mariner
 
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Spiderguy252
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 6:51 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 125):
Great to hear we shall see the A340 family flying with a new airline.It will do well with them for starters.No one knows how long the oil price will remain at circa $30 a barrel but at that price the planes will be a steal!

Even if oil prices were at the higher end of the range, if there is one place where the A340 family will work it is the Persian Gulf region. Look at how long EK, EY and QR have hung onto their respective fleets.
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:49 pm

Iran’s ‘golden page' in history: Rouhani sees economic windfall as sanctions lifted
...
Tehran, which has been shut out of international markets, reemerged from years of economic exclusion, with sanctions crippling Iran's economy finally lifted in return for Tehran complying with a deal to curb its nuclear ambitions.

Iran expects 5 percent economic growth in the next year, which starts in Iran in March, Reuters reported Rouhani as saying on state television. Tehran is now also seeking to attract at least $30 billion in foreign direct investment over the next five years, Rouhani added.

-50%
read more here:
https://www.rt.com/news/329224-nuclear-deal-golden-rouhani/

  

US Treasury imposes new ballistic missile sanctions on Iran

The US Treasury says it is imposing new ballistic missile sanctions on Iran after Tehran released five American prisoners. The move also comes less than a day after some of the sanctions imposed on Iran over its nuclear program were removed by the US and EU.

Washington has imposed sanctions on 11 companies and individuals for helping to supply Iran’s ballistic missile program, the Treasury Department stated.

-50%
read more here:
https://www.rt.com/usa/329240-us-sanctions-iran-ballistic/

 Wow!  
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:54 pm

Iran sanctions: Middle East stock markets crash as Tehran enters oil war

Prospect of the Islamic Republic pumping an additional 500,000 barrels a day sends stock markets in Dubai and Saudi Arabia into tailspin

Stock markets across the Middle East collapsed as the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran threatened to unleash a fresh wave of oil onto global markets that are already drowning in excess supply.

All seven stock markets in Gulf states tumbled as panic gripped traders. Dubai's DFM General Index slumped 4.8pc to 2,682.56, while Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index collapsed by 7pc to 5,409.35, its lowest level in almost five years.

-50%
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-sanctions-middle-east-stock-102835505.html

          Wow!


Quote:
Oil has shed more than 75pc since last summer - a post war record - as over-supply and fears over global economic growth has depressed traders. * Oil price crash means petrol could become cheaper than bottled water
 
QANTAS077
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:54 pm

[quote=777way,reply=53]Tourist potential? with the US visa ruling thats not happening.

yeah...why not? the US isn't the only country on earth.
 
Armodeen
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:18 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 90):


I think Iran Air will mostly buy B777-300ERs for their long haul routes - or they will at least lease some until the B777-X comes up on the market. I am less sure about B747-8i but who knows.

Without any ETOPS experience, it seems like '4 engines 4 long haul' will be the mantra in Iran for the immediate future!

PS - and thank goodness, these are great airplanes being retired before their time  
 
UA444
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:14 pm

Iran Air can definitely make a 747-8i and 8F work. And Iran has a huge love affair with the queen. Boeing has two white tails they need to find a home for.
 
TC957
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:31 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 131):
Oil price crash means petrol could become cheaper than bottled water

I presume you've never bought petrol in the UK then ! Highest fuel duty tax in Europe is added.  
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:54 pm

Quoting TC957 (Reply 135):
I presume you've never bought petrol in the UK then ! Highest fuel duty tax in Europe is added.

I presume that you've never bought Voss water.

Voss water in Asda £2.29 per 800ml = 289p per litre

Average UK fuel price 102p per litre

Water is nearly 3 times as expensive as petrol..
 
aryonoco
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:56 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 128):
Australia has pretty good trade with Iran and will have more now, and while there are some Iranians in Oz, it isn't a huge population.

I don't have numbers, and I agree that the number isn't "huge", but if the two Iranian supermarkets that have just opened up in my suburb are any indication, I think the number of Iranians in Oz might be a higher than what most imagine.

The ME3 are currently doing good business carrying these passengers. Sure they'll keep some of their loyal customers, but IR can steal a lot of them with a direct route that's competitively priced. I'd say right now there is definitely enough demand for a 3x weekly IKA-SYD on a A340, growing to daily and adding IKA-MEL within a couple of years.

Quoting mariner (Reply 128):
What matters now is whether the people who actually run Iran Air have the vision to embrace the possibilities or whether it will be a government toy.

There are some competent technocrats in the current Iranian government, but there are also a lot of entities (the Revolutionary Guards and their multitude of affiliated satellite companies, the Mostazafan Foundation, the Headquarters for Executing the Order of the Imam, etc) that are outside the government and do not necessarily have the same agenda as the government (to put it mildly). Right now I have no idea which one is going to have the upper hand going forward, we shall see.
 
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mariner
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:45 am

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 137):
I don't have numbers, and I agree that the number isn't "huge", but if the two Iranian supermarkets that have just opened up in my suburb are any indication, I think the number of Iranians in Oz might be a higher than what most imagine.

The 2011 census shows 34,453 as "Iran born" which is an increase of over 50% from the 2006 census. A similar jump in the 2016 census would put that at around 50,000.

The majority (49.8%) are living in Sydney and environs - in one document, Newcastle and Wollongong are mentioned as well and the total Iran born population in Victoria is given as 7447.

http://www.dss.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/02_2014/iran.pdf

They are mostly Shia Muslims, but there are also a fair number of Baha'i. Trivia - nearly half of people following the Baha'i faith in Australia were born in Iran.

I can't find a calculation for the Australian-born Iranians, of which there must be some quite high number. Even so, I think direct flights would depend of the amount of tourism that develops - which I think would - eventually - be quite high. When I was working in Melbourne in the mid/late seventies Iran was quite popular as a stopover on the way to Europe.

mariner
 
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DolphinAir747
Posts: 1901
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:48 am

Quoting UA444 (Reply 134):
And Iran has a huge love affair with the queen. Boeing has two white tails they need to find a home for.

I think the decision to buy A vs. B will be entirely political. Given the political uncertainty over Iran in the US and the fact that the US is so close to Iran's two worst enemies, Saudi Arabia and Israel. As much as I love the fact that IR still flies gorgeous 747s that should now be in a museum, their "huge love affair" is more like "being forced into keeping what they bought under the Shah and can't replace" and they will probably choose Airbuses to make a political statement.
 
aryonoco
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:28 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 138):
A similar jump in the 2016 census would put that at around 50,000.

I'm confident that the jump from 2011 to 2016 will be over 50%. Still, those are interesting numbers. Thanks for looking them up.

Quoting mariner (Reply 138):
in one document, Newcastle and Wollongong are mentioned

The University of Wollongong's campus in Dubai attracts a lot of Iranian students, most of whom then finish their studies in Australia, and many of whom presumably stay around.

Quoting mariner (Reply 138):
When I was working in Melbourne in the mid/late seventies Iran was quite popular as a stopover on the way to Europe.

Yes but the pre-1979 Iran was almost a different country. The Middle East looked very different back then, Dubai barely registered on most world maps.

Going back to the topic of IKA-SYD flights, you are also assuming that the flight has to be profitable from day one. IR is a government entity and something Iranians used to be very proud of. I can totally see a loss making operation being sustained by subsidies for a few years, both for prestige reasons, as well as to stimulate the market until tourism eventually picks up.
 
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DolphinAir747
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:33 am

When should we expect the last 74L to leave the IR fleet? Is it still flying to KUL?
 
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mariner
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:35 am

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 140):
Yes but the pre-1979 Iran was almost a different country. The Middle East looked very different back then, Dubai barely registered on most world maps.

Oh, sure, and a fantastic place Dubai is, but it is - modern, very modern. It doesn't have much that isn't modern, or modernist.

Whereas people go to Egypt to see old - starting but not ending, with the pyramids. Sadly, tourism in Egypt is being badly battered by extremists.

In terms of antiquity, Iran offers some of the most fabulous sites left in the world and remarkably intact and in a comparatively safe environment, for tourists.

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 140):
Going back to the topic of IKA-SYD flights, you are also assuming that the flight has to be profitable from day one.

When I did I suggest that?

The aim is always to be profitable and we used to give airlines two or three years at least, even on fairly obvious routes, to achieve it. That's changed a little in these impatient days, especially in the US, when routes are expected to make money right out of the gate.

But as I said earlier, I have no idea what the attitude of the Iranian government will be to the airline. I don't know if it is going to be run on purely commercial lines or if it - or some routes - will be subsidised. I hope it is the former but the latler would not remotely surprise me, nor concern me.

mariner

[Edited 2016-01-17 19:44:06]
 
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DolphinAir747
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:33 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 142):
But as I said earlier, I have no idea what the attitude of the Iranian government will be to the airline. I don't know if it is going to be run on purely commercial lines or if it - or some routes - will be subsidised. I hope it is the former but the latler would not remotely surprise me, nor concern me.

Hopefully, Iran will learn from India's mistake and not make their flag carrier so absurdly uncompetitive that the ME3 gobble up all the international traffic.
 
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DolphinAir747
Posts: 1901
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RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:35 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 142):
But as I said earlier, I have no idea what the attitude of the Iranian government will be to the airline. I don't know if it is going to be run on purely commercial lines or if it - or some routes - will be subsidised. I hope it is the former but the latler would not remotely surprise me, nor concern me.

Hopefully, Iran will learn from India's mistake and not make their flag carrier so absurdly uncompetitive that the ME3 gobble up all the international traffic.
 
KD5MDK
Posts: 843
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:05 am

RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:55 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 121):
I noticed a number are A320s already and thus unlikely to need immediate replacement.

There are plenty of A320s ready to be retired today elsewhere, so they're certainly possible to replace in a 10 year window.
Any A340 ordered this year will be replaced by 2025 as well.
Seeing 200% turnover in the fleet would be dramatic, but not impossible.
 
MadameConcorde
Posts: 9266
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 5:08 pm

RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:39 pm

Quoting TC957 (Reply 135):
I presume you've never bought petrol in the UK then ! Highest fuel duty tax in Europe is added.

Talking about oil and Iran...

Iran gives order for 500,000 bpd rise in oil production

Managing director of the National Iranian Oil Company says the Oil Ministry has been ordered to raise the country’s daily oil production by 500,000 barrels following announcement of the removal of international sanctions against Iran.

-50%
http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/0...-roknoddin-javadi-oil-output-hike/

  


and this....

Iran to test new missiles despite US sanctions: Defense minister

Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan says the Islamic Republic will unveil new domestically-designed and manufactured missiles in the near future in defiance of new US sanctions against the country over its missile program.

“[Any] attempt to impose new sanctions [against Iran] under irrelevant pretexts is indicative of the continued US hostile policy and acrimony toward the Iranian nation, and a futile effort to undermine Iran’s defense might,” Dehqan said on Monday.

He added that the Islamic Republic of Iran’s missile industry is fully domestically-manufactured and anchored in science and expertise of the country’s defense sector.

-50%
read more:
http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/0...nction-ballistic-missile-program-/

    Wow!
 
MadameConcorde
Posts: 9266
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 5:08 pm

RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:23 pm

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 141):
When should we expect the last 74L to leave the IR fleet? Is it still flying to KUL?

KUL twice a week and Mumbai once a week.

AC still has some life in her - probably until later in 2016 maybe longer.

Not sure how long AI (the 747-200 doing the flights to Beijing) can still fly. I will see about getting information from prime source as I would like to do a couple of runs on the old girls before they leave the fleet.

        
 
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KarelXWB
Posts: 26968
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2012 6:13 pm

RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:24 pm

Quoting aryonoco (Reply 105):
So the 114 aircraft are going to be a bunch of A320s and A340s.

Probably not a new order as the A340 is out of production, Iran will simply buy second-hand planes.

Well there are enough A340s stored across the globe   
 
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flyingturtle
Posts: 6590
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

RE: Iran Says Sanctions To Be Lifted Sat 16 Jan

Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:25 pm

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 131):
Prospect of the Islamic Republic pumping an additional 500,000 barrels a day sends stock markets in Dubai and Saudi Arabia into tailspin

For many of the gulf states, it will be make or break. Drastic reforms, putting their own citizens into "dirty" jobs, abolishing hefty subsidies...

We live in very interesting times.


David

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