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KarelXWB
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Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:44 pm

Despite having only 40% of the future narrowbody backlog, John Wojick (Global Sales & Marketing at Boeing) believes 737 MAX has a large potential and may win many future sales campaigns.

Quote:
“I feel really good about where we’re at. And yes, they have sold more airplanes than we have,” he said, in a brief side interview after his presentation to the Seattle Rotary. “But at this point in time, I’m not concerned about it.”

“It’s a long road. We’ve got 26 customers today for the Max. There are over 300 that operate the 737 airplane out there,” Wojick said. Many of the airlines, he said, haven't made their decisions yet about which planes they'll choose for their fleets.

Wojick added the 737 MAX is going to be "a 20-year program at least".

Quote:
"A lot of people have not voted yet," Wojick said. "It’s going to be a 20-year program at least. So we’ve got a long time to play this game out.”

Source
http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/n...les-chief-says-the-737-max-vs.html

An interesting piece of information is the 20-year lifetime for the MAX program. There is no business case for an 737 MAX successor as long as oil remains cheap.

[Edited 2016-01-18 07:45:47]
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StTim
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:49 pm

All the more interesting as PW are promising major gains for their engine over the next few years - let along the longer term.

Doe this also mean that any planned MoM frame is much more a niche role than thought?
 
abba
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:19 pm

The problem being, though, that it is very difficult to predict oil prices very far into the future. Prices might go up quickly due to some political developments in the ME or Latin America that happens unexpectedly.
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:28 pm

So any idea how they are doing with the oft-rumored shortfall in the LEAP engine's performance?
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:43 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 3):

cheap oil
like the guy that got a tranquilizer to fix his diarrhea.

it's still runing down .... but it doesn't bother me so much anymore.  
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:54 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
Wojick added the 737 MAX is going to be "a 20-year program at least".

Wow, so 737s will still be made in 2035? Seriously?
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 6:03 pm

Next Gen has been 20 years. Makes sense for a salesman to say that he expects this one to last that long. Clearly I don't think many of us believe that will be true. If the 739 was selling better or another new model was on the horizon things could be different but I think many of us believe there will be a NSA in late 2020s. I know I do.

But then with overlap and programs like the P-8 and maybe a freighter its not hard to picture the line lasting 15 years and he will be long retired before his prediction (dis)proves itself.

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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 6:06 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
Wojick added the 737 MAX is going to be "a 20-year program at least".

Does he seriously believe this? I don't. I believe that the GTF is ultimately going to leave the LEAP-X in the dust, and Boeing is going to have to do something well before the 20 years is up. As I understand it, the GTF does not work on the 737 because the 3:1 gearbox that they have will not work adequately for the fan diameter that they can fit on the 737, and changing the ratio is a really big deal. That puzzles me a bit, because mechanically it is not a big deal, but I suspect the testing required is. So if, as I expect, 737 sales fall off a cliff because the A320 is able to offer much better efficiency, Boeing will have to do something. However, if the GTF falls on its face then Wojick might actually end up being right. I do not expect this, however.
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 6:11 pm

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 5):
Wow, so 737s will still be made in 2035? Seriously?

The replacement single aisles are expected c. 2030 - at leat that's what industry seems to be gearing up for. I'd expect the overlap to be longer than 5 years to be honest - it's going to be a massive industrialization challenge.
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 6:12 pm

Low fuel prices change a lot. But fuel price predictions are often wrong. But in the end as long as Boeing can sell all 737s they can make, there is little need for a successor.
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 6:22 pm

Reply 6
Next Gen has been 20 years. Makes sense for a salesman to say that he expects this one to last that long. Clearly I don't think many of us believe that will be true. If the 739 was selling better or another new model was on the horizon things could be different but I think many of us believe there will be a NSA in late 2020s. I know I do.

In a nutshell!
Of course he is going to say that - he 'has' to say that.He would be a fool if he didn't. But (20 years) no it won't.But they we keep uber quiet of what they are doing thinking in the mean time.That is why they talk about the MOM.It is (IMHO)' simply' the 'top end' of their NSA.
Thats what will get launched first as their real 'hole' is against the A321 NEO LR. The others will come later. If Boeing had launched the 789 first how many 788's would they have sold?Some of course - but just look at the recent switching! They were smart and offered the -8 first. Just as they will offer the MOM (NSA) first.
Having said that, they won't be launching any project till the 777-8/9 is well out of the way.That will give time for the second generation GTF's to be developed and no doubt other new technologies (high aspect ratio hinged wing?).And sell a shed load of 738 MAX's along the way.
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 6:25 pm

Wonder if Boeing can make a bigger wing for the 737Max and put 40K thrust engines to get a 757 successor. Sort of like Airbus going from the A340-300 to the A340-600.

sv11
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 6:28 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
Wojick added the 737 MAX is going to be "a 20-year program at least".

I seriously doubt that. Even 10 years from now the NSA will have probably been at least launched or would be in late development. Heck, they could potentially even have something right after the 777X EIS along with the MoM!

Plus, before the A320neo, Boeing was actively studying a 737 replacement. A320neo was launched, Boeing had to do a quick fix to keep the 737 competitive, hence the MAX. I see the MAX as a stop gap.

Boeing themselves said they expect to have a 737 replacement "no later than 2030."

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
John Wojick (Global Sales & Marketing at Boeing) believes 737 MAX has a large potential and may win many future sales campaigns.

I have doubts about this too. True, the A320neo was launched first, but a 1300 order lead over the MAX is impressive. The gap has closed a bit, but that's besides the problem. The MAX 8 and the A320neos are the best sellers so far, but the A321neo has outsold the MAX 9 over twofold, and I think that's a crucial size bracket for both companies. Until Boeing perhaps launches the MoM, 757 operators will want a viable replacement, and so far, the A321 has been helping to fill at least some of that need.
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 6:47 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 10):
Of course he is going to say that - he 'has' to say that.He would be a fool if he didn't. But (20 years) no it won't.But they we keep uber quiet of what they are doing thinking in the mean time.

Hard to do that since Boeing was the one who wanted to do the NSA and clients seeing the NEO said they were not willing to wait, so it's an open secret to anyone who has ears that Boeing will be doing the NSA as soon as possible, the MOM will most likely be the proving ground or the largest version of the new variant.
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 6:53 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 13):
so it's an open secret to anyone who has ears that Boeing will be doing the NSA as soon as possible

I am not sure Boeing would propose anything that wasn't 15%+ better than the MAX and with fuel costs being what they are a 15% casm improvement (not just fuel) is pretty difficult to picture with new technology. There will need to be significant advancement before that.

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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 6:59 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 14):
I am not sure Boeing would propose anything that wasn't 15%+ better than the MAX and with fuel costs being what they are a 15% casm improvement (not just fuel) is pretty difficult to picture with new technology. There will need to be significant advancement before that.

Yes.

An offered NSA must best the NEO's performance at its EIS by 15..20%.
That is significantly more that just 15% over today's MAX.
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:04 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
Wojick added the 737 MAX is going to be "a 20-year program at least".

Precisely what you would expect a salesman to say. Between the lines. We have such a great product, it won't need to be replaced for 20 years.

The interesting question would be, if there were no production constraints, which models would do better / worse than currently?
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:09 pm

The NSA will come with a new generation engines around 2030.

The question is what a A320NEO2 with the same engines and new wing will be compared to NSA. it will be cheaper to create and faster production increase.
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:34 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
An interesting piece of information is the 20-year lifetime for the MAX program. There is no business case for an 737 MAX successor as long as oil remains cheap.

He didn't relate the MAX lifetime to oil prices, though. Which would have been foolish anyway. Just look at how nobody expected oil to be as low as it is now - nobody has any idea where it's going to be in 20 years' time.
That said: MAX and NEO were launched and sold as well as they did primarily because at the time, oil was heading for ever-new heights.

Even if the oil price doesn't stay low, there isn't a business case for a 737MAX successor in the next few years in my eyes. MAX and NEO were designed with high oil prices in mind. Both Airbus and Boeing (and the engine OEMs) invested a few billion quid each in these programmes and they have absolutely unprecedented backlogs. It's foolish to believe any of these parties is going to rush into a successor programme without there being a very solid business case. Which I don't see there being before some time in the mid-2020s (a bit short of the 20-year lifetime Wojick aludes to).
That, by the way, is also why I didn't and still don't believe any of those "MOM plane launch before 2020" rumours. It just wouldn't make much sense, as it'd be a natural basis for a MAX/NEO successor (at the large end), but before 2020 would be way to early to launch anything that this successor should be based on.

Quoting Planesmart (Reply 16):
The interesting question would be, if there were no production constraints, which models would do better / worse than currently?

They're aiming at roughly the same rates, i.e. production constraints are roughly equal for both OEMs. I don't think such constraints play a major role in the respective market shares. Or phrased another way: as production constraints are roughyl the same for A and B, I would expect market share to be pretty much the same in a hypothetical scenario where there are no production constraints at all. As in: Think old, simple airline sim games where you could order 300 planes and got them instantly  
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:38 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
John Wojick (Global Sales & Marketing at Boeing) believes 737 MAX has a large potential and may win many future sales campaigns.

I don't think anyone really doubted this, Boeing will start with a slight advantage for any 737 operator replacing their aircraft. And there's many 737NGs waiting to be replaced.

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
Wojick added the 737 MAX is going to be "a 20-year program at least".

This is a little bit more surprising, because with one strong competitor against 2 from Airbus, in the long term I see Airbus edging ahead on value/revenue, and they'll have the same edge when it comes to replacing existing A32X fleets, but a further edge if an airline wants more seats, which trends suggest is likely to continue into the future.
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:02 pm

Not only the A320neo killed the NSA, but also the experience of the 787. The promise of a cheaper faster more efficient production by going to CFRP was a dream.
It may well be possible that Boeing needs to do a NSA by 2030, but only if the A320 steals the cake. Perhaps we will see a bigger frame replacing on the low end the 737-900 and in the upper end providing the MOM. I do neither believe in a 15% efficiency increase, nor in a CFRP fuselage.
Any increase in engine efficiency can be countered with the re engine of the completive frames. The reason for the new frame will be loss of market share by Boeing, coupled with lower revenue per frame, the A320 line having shed the A319 and the A321 having become the highest selling model.
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:38 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):
Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

John Wojick (Global Sales & Marketing at Boeing)  

John "Paul Jones" Wojick?
Ain't I a stinker?
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:47 pm

Quoting WIederling (Reply 15):
An offered NSA must best the NEO's performance at its EIS by 15..20%.
That is significantly more that just 15% over today's MAX.

Yet today's MAX is not beating NEO by 15-20% and is still selling.

Bottom line to me is watch the backlog. As long as the backlog is healthy there's no reason to change. The only reason to change is if you see that no one will order the thing any more, and we're far from that point with MAX. And when no one will order the thing you can't say you won't launch the replacement till it's 15-20% better than the competition. At that point your choices are to launch a replacement that will at least regain parity or exit the market.

Quoting Planesmart (Reply 16):
Precisely what you would expect a salesman to say. Between the lines. We have such a great product, it won't need to be replaced for 20 years.

Exactly, you can't expect them to say we'll probably be replacing it 10 years from now, that would kill sales.

Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 19):
I don't think anyone really doubted this, Boeing will start with a slight advantage for any 737 operator replacing their aircraft. And there's many 737NGs waiting to be replaced.

They have a slight advantage in incumbency and in availability, but neither advantage is insurmountable. A lot of those customers who used to be Boeing exclusively have now gotten mixed fleets via mergers or via their own choices and can chose to grow either fleet.
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:59 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 14):
I am not sure Boeing would propose anything that wasn't 15%+ better than the MAX and with fuel costs being what they are a 15% casm improvement (not just fuel) is pretty difficult to picture with new technology. There will need to be significant advancement before that.
Quoting WIederling (Reply 15):
An offered NSA must best the NEO's performance at its EIS by 15..20%.
That is significantly more that just 15% over today's MAX.

So the fact that the 737 is having difficulty accommodating incremental improvements in engine tech is never no mind?
I believe that is also a factor for Boeing, hence the initial thought to do the NSA.
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:59 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 22):
Yet today's MAX is not beating NEO by 15-20% and is still selling.

... on the cheap.

for a brand new NSA Boeing would need to be able to ask for a significant markup
to compete profit wise with a well but cheaply pimped NEOn.

Same thing as with the A330 versus 787 runoff.
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:16 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 10):
If Boeing had launched the 789 first how many 788's would they have sold?Some of course - but just look at the recent switching!

That makes no sense. Why would any company in their right noggin want to sell a cheaper version instead of the more expensive higher profitability version? The 788 was launched because it was believed to be the sweet spot and aimed squarely at replacing the vast majority of 762's. I do believe Boeing was caught somewhat with the trousers at their ankles when they saw the trend toward higher capacity needs and the preference for the 789 but had they realized that need I do believe they would have launched the 789 first.

All that being said, the MoM I thought was to be incorporated into and with the NSA. In other words the next NSA in my understanding is beginning to look like four models ranging from -1 (appx 145 seats), -2 (175 seats), -3 (205 seats), -4 (235 seats)? These are approximate numbers but I thought I remember seeing that B was studying and looking at a sweet spot between the 737 and the 757 sizes. If that were the case then a launch of a 797-4 may indeed be first. This would be to garner orders lost based upon the Max 9 losing ground to the 321neo/LR.

Will the launch be before 2035? Logic would dictate that it would and we can and should tally this up to a salesman talking BS and trying to sell the crap out of some metal, period.
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:17 pm

At some point other competitors will start making a dent in the Airbus/Boeing duopoly. It'll be a slow process, but eventually the Russians and Chinese will start making a competitive product. And while I don't expect to see UA or AF operating Chinese aircraft in the near future, if the Chinese airlines and others in the region do, then that will start to dent the Airbus and Boeing sales.

Especially as both these competitors will be using the same new generation of engines, the MS21 with the GTF, the 919 with the Leap (featuring the same larger fan that the A320NEO version has), and in many ways are newer products.

Boeing will need to move forward a generation, it's just a question of when
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:20 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 3):
So any idea how they are doing with the oft-rumored shortfall in the LEAP engine's performance?

As I recall, the 4-5% SFC miss reported for the LEAP-B last Spring was later identified being due to a manufacturing defect and not a design deficiency. I believe the actual miss is around the 2% reported for the LEAP-A / LEAP-C.
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:25 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):

Some links? ( new to me which doesn't say much. )
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:29 pm

Quoting WIederling (Reply 28):
Some links? ( new to me which doesn't say much. )

I just remember follow on posts in the the original thread about the miss. So probably best to look in that thread.
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:30 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
I just remember follow on posts in the the original thread about the miss. So probably best to look in that thread.

I remember those figures from that thread as well. For sure they are there.  
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:33 pm

Quoting WIederling (Reply 24):
for a brand new NSA Boeing would need to be able to ask for a significant markup
to compete profit wise with a well but cheaply pimped NEOn.

Either that, or exit the market. The choices would be (a) continue to produce an airplane that no one will buy (b) find a way to finance a NSA or (c) exit the market. My bet is (b).
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:38 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 31):

Take the automotive gambit:
(d) Threaten to go down in flames and get a reboot from the government.  
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:50 pm

Lots of interesting posts on this bread. I think it comes down to the 737 being a very robust and optimized airframe. While it has some old technology it has been thoroughly modernized and updated where it counts to remain competitive.

I think the engines will make a difference. A.net has a lot of PW GTF fanboys. I am not really sure why. The engine does have the potential for some great efficiency improvements but I am not convinced that it will dominate the market. The geared turbofan design has some inherent reliability challenges. Many wonder how good reliability will end up. There are CFM56 engines that have gone 30,000 or 40,000 hours on wing between removals. Those engines are incredibly reliable with low maintenance and setting owning time records. I personally doubt that the PW engine will ever achieve those numbers due to the inherent cooling challenges with the gearbox. In the highly competitive narrow body market with dispatch reliability and utilization so important, if the PW engines are getting removed between the goal of 3 year C checks then they will offset 1 or 2% fuel burn with maintenance costs.

We are already seeing the A320neo program and Cseries programs delayed due to engine issues and we know that the engine will not be rock solid at entry into service. I hope that PW can make the PW1000g work. The concept of a geared turbofan has been around for about 50 years, but so far nobody has been able to get one to operate with high reliability. The ALF 502 on the BAE146 have always had problems. The engine works on low utilization business jets. We will see if PW can make it work. They are almost betting the company on it.

I agree with Wojick. There is a lot of time to see what happens. The two planes could end up in parity or the 60 40 split could improve or get worse.

[Edited 2016-01-18 14:06:04]
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:00 pm

Quoting deltadawg (Reply 25):
it was believed to be the sweet spot and aimed squarely at replacing the vast majority of 762's.

We know you mean the 763, so will not nitpick 
However, the upsize is a bit tricky, the A330 went larger than the 767-300 the best selling version, and the 787 is larger than the 767 and the A330, so I agree that the additional upsize from the 787-8 to the 787-9 came after Boeing was already committed to the initial version.

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 26):
And while I don't expect to see UA or AF operating Chinese aircraft in the near future,

....well there was a time when folks thought Airbus would not sell in the USA, so......guess who became one of the larger users of Airbus a/c.
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:20 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 22):
Yet today's MAX is not beating NEO by 15-20% and is still selling.

I do not see Boeing investing ten(s of) billion(s) into a new design (and a new production system) if it doesn't improve on the NEO by at least 12 - 15%. If not for the simple reason that Airbus will be able to price any NEO or NEO2 very aggressively, eroding margins against any new offering.
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:27 pm

Quoting sv11 (Reply 11):
Wonder if Boeing can make a bigger wing for the 737Max and put 40K thrust engines to get a 757 successor. Sort of like Airbus going from the A340-300 to the A340-600.

sv11

I think they'd have an easier time bringing the 757 back to life with a NEO
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:31 pm

More delusion. The 707 twinjet is not competitive and GE's engine will not hit targets. The market speaks loud and clear.
 
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:39 pm

Quoting PW100 (Reply 35):

I do not see Boeing investing ten(s of) billion(s) into a new design (and a new production system) if it doesn't improve on the NEO by at least 12 - 15%.

They will if the 737 stops selling and their only other choice is find the money or exit the market.
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PGNCS
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:40 pm

Quoting Planesmart (Reply 16):
Quoting KarelXWB (Thread starter):Wojick added the 737 MAX is going to be "a 20-year program at least".

Precisely what you would expect a salesman to say.

Thank you Planesmart, that's by far the most concise and correct post on the thread. Though few doubt the 737 MAX will sell well, it's Wojick's job to push the party line that the 737 is great, seeing as he gets paid to sell 737's. It's not like he's a disinterested party, and it's no different from John Leahy saying Airbus is the be all and end all. In other words, nothing to see here.
 
col
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:52 pm

Looking at it realistically, both the neo and max were great ideas, and the orders will continue to come in. The update of older frames actually works very well. max has won orders from Airbus customers and neo from Boeing, so both must look good. It will be interesting to see where engine development takes us with both neo and max, but at this point both A and B must be smiling.
 
Ruscoe
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:48 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 38):
do not see Boeing investing ten(s of) billion(s) into a new design (and a new production system) if it doesn't improve on the NEO by at least 12 - 15%. They will if the 737 stops selling and their only other choice is find the money or exit the market.

And they will know 5 to 10 years before sales start to fall off because of what they are seeing in their forward campaigns.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 20):
Not only the A320neo killed the NSA, but also the experience of the 787. The promise of a cheaper faster more efficient production by going to CFRP was a dream.

With Boeing themselves saying the lighter fuselage is only worth 5%, plus there is some factor from improved aerodynamics you can only do with non metallic structures, and with most improvements coming from the engines, I can see where you are coming from.

However, I think over a longer time frame, the jury is still out. It is clear what Boeing is doing, trying to improve production efficiency, by eliminating workers hours per craft, and their method of producing a carbon fibre fuselage by winding, has the potential to deliver in the future. However both the 320and 737 are not carbon fibre.

So as fuel costs go down another factor will come to the fore in all this, that used to be more important, Capital costs.

Unfortunately both Boeing and Airbus find themselves in a situation where they have driven down prices to get sales, when it is completely unnecessary in a two horse race. I

So in the end I think there will be no winner in the 320/737 war, if oil prices stay down, but if they rise significantly in the next 20 years, then Airbus should have the advantage, because despite the problems with the P&W it appears to me to have more potential for future improvements than the LEAP.

Ruscoe
 
roseflyer
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:49 pm

Quoting UA444 (Reply 37):
More delusion. The 707 twinjet is not competitive and GE's engine will not hit targets. The market speaks loud and clear.

If the LeapX is so bad why is the A320 neo close to fifty fifty with regards to GE(CFM) vs PW engine orders? The LeapX has 70% market share of the orders of next generation narrowbodies.

As regards to 707 twin jet, your sarcasm and flamebait is noted, but I won't feed the trolls.

[Edited 2016-01-18 15:52:43]
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:04 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 20):
Not only the A320neo killed the NSA

"Killed" isn't the word I'd use. More like "delay."

You can't kill something that doesn't exist yet.

Quoting WIederling (Reply 24):
for a brand new NSA Boeing would need to be able to ask for a significant markup
to compete profit wise with a well but cheaply pimped NEOn.
Quoting WIederling (Reply 15):
An offered NSA must best the NEO's performance at its EIS by 15..20%.
That is significantly more that just 15% over today's MAX.

Superior efficiency is a given. In order to totally destroy the A320neo economically, the NSA needs to be, at the bare minimum, 10% more efficient right off the bat, and that's assuming the MAX/NEO has been Piped a few times.

The MoM also needs to look attractive compared to the A321neo and A321neoLR.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 35):
I do not see Boeing investing ten(s of) billion(s) into a new design (and a new production system) if it doesn't improve on the NEO by at least 12 - 15%

Either way, the 737 is not getting any younger. At the rate engine technology is advancing, a suitable engine design could arise within a decade. Boeing is an R&D giant. An NSA is totally doable, it just needs time.

Quoting Sooner787 (Reply 36):
I think they'd have an easier time bringing the 757 back to life with a NEO

Agreed. Why continue to dink around with new versions of the same plane when something totally new and in no need of modifying is needed?

A 737 rewing will not happen. That's where the NSA comes in.

A 757neo will not happen. That's where the MoM comes in.
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mjoelnir
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Tue Jan 19, 2016 2:01 am

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 43):
Superior efficiency is a given. In order to totally destroy the A320neo economically, the NSA needs to be, at the bare minimum, 10% more efficient right off the bat, and that's assuming the MAX/NEO has been Piped a few times

keep on dreaming, where should it come from?

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 43):
"Killed" isn't the word I'd use. More like "delay."

It killed the NSA in the form it was proposed. It will of course not stop Boeing from developing new air plains.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 43):
Either way, the 737 is not getting any younger. At the rate engine technology is advancing, a suitable engine design could arise within a decade. Boeing is an R&D giant. An NSA is totally doable, it just needs time.

Any engine advance is open to other frames too. If Boeing comes out with a design that distances itself from a reengined competition, that would be a big number.

An engine advance can be negated, as the 787 looses the advantage in engine performance with the coming A330neo, the advantage left is the modern frame.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Tue Jan 19, 2016 2:16 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 22):
Exactly, you can't expect them to say we'll probably be replacing it 10 years from now, that would kill sales.

It isn't so bad the MAX will be replaced in a decade. I expect the MOM to be announced in 3 years (EIS in 2025) and the 737 replacement about 3 years after that using 'newly discovered' technology. (Not really newly discovered, but salesmen do believe their own tripe.)


The MAX will continue to see. The -8 MAX has its own niche. The Difference in the engines is interesting, but until a heck of a lot of older airframes are replaced, we're talking about cost differences that could be handled with commercial terms.

Airbus is also too sold out on the NEO... they're going to soak up the profits for a bit.


It will take quantity in the field.

Lightsaber
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airzona11
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Tue Jan 19, 2016 2:34 am

With a Duopoly, there really is far to much nitpicking on the small PIP/CASM/performance deltas between the frames. With all due to respect to the users calling this the warmed over 40 year old plane, it is only a matter of time until you use the same adjectives to describe the Airbus product.

As soon as one starts to beat on performance, the other can come down on price. As soon as the backlog fills up, earlier availability will sell.

Combine this with consolidation of airlines and each plane can be bought and scaled to fill the most profitable niche for that frame.

Oil is driving a spike in sales of the CEO, further hurting the case for an NSA type from either carrier.

20 year old plane design, 30 year old plane design, 40 year old plane design- until Embraer, Bombardier (most likely but not probable) - China/Russia (not going to happen soon) can come up with something to challenge the status quo, it is going to be A320s and 737s.
 
planemaker
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Tue Jan 19, 2016 3:01 am

Quoting abba (Reply 2):
The problem being, though, that it is very difficult to predict oil prices very far into the future. Prices might go up quickly due to some political developments in the ME or Latin America that happens unexpectedly.

Oil future for 2024 are at $54.

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 12):
Boeing themselves said they expect to have a 737 replacement "no later than 2030."

That was when oil was at $100. The new ceiling for oil is $50.

Quoting par13del (Reply 13):
Hard to do that since Boeing was the one who wanted to do the NSA and clients seeing the NEO said they were not willing to wait, so it's an open secret to anyone who has ears that Boeing will be doing the NSA as soon as possible

Clients were not willing to wait when oil was at $100 and most assumed it was going to only increase. That isn't the case anymore.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 14):
I am not sure Boeing would propose anything that wasn't 15%+ better than the MAX and with fuel costs being what they are a 15% casm improvement (not just fuel) is pretty difficult to picture with new technology. There will need to be significant advancement before that.

Horray!!   5 star post! Plus, the MAX isn't going to stand still... Boeing will still be pouring millions annually into improvements (as they did with the NG) continuously eating into the delta.

Quoting anfromme (Reply 18):
Just look at how nobody expected oil to be as low as it is now - nobody has any idea where it's going to be in 20 years' time.

Actually a few did. In aviation, Adam Pilarski has since 2011 and I have been echoing his thoughts on A.Net for just as long. Pilarski actually challenged Nico Bucholtz to a bet when Bucholtz said that Pilarski had dropped a zero from his prediction.  
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Boeing778X
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Tue Jan 19, 2016 4:22 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 44):
keep on dreaming, where should it come from?
Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 44):
An engine advance can be negated, as the 787 looses the advantage in engine performance with the coming A330neo, the advantage left is the modern frame.

I don't know if it's just your tone or something, but I can be quite confident you're fond of Airbus.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 47):
That was when oil was at $100. The new ceiling for oil is $50.

Well sure. But no one expects those prices to be permanent.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 45):
It isn't so bad the MAX will be replaced in a decade. I expect the MOM to be announced in 3 years (EIS in 2025) and the 737 replacement about 3 years after that using 'newly discovered' technology. (Not really newly discovered, but salesmen do believe their own tripe.)

So MoM announcement in 2019-2020 with an EIS in 2025, and an NSA announcement in 2022-2023 with EIS 2028-2030.

I could expect Boeing to launch the MoM just as their finishing with the 777X. By 2021, all their resources devoted to development should be completely free.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 45):
The MAX will continue to see. The -8 MAX has its own niche.

The MAX 8 is the best model in the family by far and I fully expect it to last all the way to the end.

Not impossible to think the final 737 made could be a MAX 8!
United Airlines: $#!ttin' On Everyone Since 1931
 
airzona11
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RE: Wojick: A320neo Vs 737 MAX Has Yet To Begin

Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:34 am

Quoting planemaker (Reply 47):
Actually a few did. In aviation, Adam Pilarski has since 2011 and I have been echoing his thoughts on A.Net for just as long.

In and out of aviation there has been a "sell" side to oil belief, but the alarmists have led us to believe not only that we are imminently running out but we will be imminently priced out of oil.

A huge driver to large capital purchases has been low interest rates. While this is a proportionally larger impact for more expensive widebodies, lower rates in general have encouraged new aircraft financing. Delta led the path with lower capital investment in used frames / maintaining old frames. The US legacies are increasing their spend on Current /previous generation aircraft.

This decreases the demand (need) for newer generation aircraft. Low variable fuel costs make CEO more attractive. This makes NEO/MAX less necessary (on the basis of lower Opex). When they are the only planes being offered they will suffice, airlines wont be clamoring for ~10-20% fuel / operation savings at a price that Boeing/Airbus will be selling for to recover to cost of capital allocated to the develop/R+D/ produce the new frames--- in summary -> where is the financial incentive for Boeing (or Airbus) to bring a NSA type frame to market anytime soon?

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