Quoting mat66 (Reply 34): Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 28): Lets not do that. Airlines have been money pits already, no need to burn even more money. You're probably right but it also means missing out of all these beautiful Delta trains leaving Atlanta Central Station. On a only slightly more serious note. If they order only a half of their existing A319, 717 MD88 fleet Delta would kind of buy the C Series program anyway.

You can add the early group of A320s, about delivered 1990-1993, to that list of aircraft to be replaced. DL could take 3 CS aircraft a month __for a decade__ and not overbuy.

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 33): Second, are you actually claiming that DL is pondering replacements for the 717 fleet at this point, because if you have evidence of that it would be big news indeed, though your point may be valid for A-319's (though I doubt anyone who actually knows would comment here).

It isn't either of those aircraft

Quoting PGNCS (Reply 33): I cannot fathom that the fleet under most scrutiny for replacement wouldn't be the MD-88.

correct.
however DL is likely going up (160 seats) not down. Last I heard they liked the 8MAX a good bit......

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 35): With the current cycles and hours on DLs 717s, when are they expected to be replaced?

Cycles don't really matter at Delta (sorry MD fan boys)
what matters is ROI, Delta views airplanes as 25-30 year investments. Its pretty safe to bet by year 30 they will be in replacement mode big time.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 39): RA is very happy with Boeing--why else would he have bought such a huge number of 737-700, -800

he hasn't bought a single 737-700 or 737-800.
Only 737-900ERs, 120 of them to be exact.

Quoting enilria (Reply 41): E190? They are already going down that path. Why would they buy E190s and then get the C-Series?

There are a bunch of used E90s on the market? where?
The only large batch was the AC birds. Other than that I haven't heard of anyone selling other than a frame here or there.

Quoting enilria (Reply 41): Yes, my buy low sell high philosophy is definitely the road to ruin.

Well you aren't buying used airplanes low and selling high.

and you would have MX cost out the roof also.

Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 42): Funny....frankly I have never understood why the keep them

because NW was dumb and order CFM56-5As not CFM56-5Bs on the 319 fleet.
Also the fit a roll in the network and don't bring an extra cost to keep them.

Quoting flyDTW1992 (Reply 43): The neo is a minimal-change variant with engines that are nearly identical to what's already been proven on the 787.

I would argue that somewhat.
Trent 7000 is based off the Trent 1000-TEN which isn't flying yet AFAIK. Also the Trent 7000 isn't going to be just a Trent 1000, some changes are being made.

Quoting JHwk (Reply 48): Always the possibility that Delta can sell the 717s at a profit,

91 717s hit the market, 717 prices are going to fall off the face of the earth, HA/QF buying 5-10 frames isn't going to keep that from happening. No way DL could sell the 717 and get enough money per frame or total to buy replacements.

edit: delete misread

[Edited 2016-01-19 16:34:10]

It could be that Anderson is looking for the same or better discount for the C series that Boeing is going to give United to buy more B737-700's. However Boeing has FAR deeper pockets to promote an airplane UAL already flies and is Very familiar with. Aside from having tooling,Parts and Engineering talent galore for the airplane. It appears to be a No Brainer owing to the probably DEEP discounts rendered by Boeing for United to Buy more of that model.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 51): 91 717s hit the market, 717 prices are going to fall off the face of the earth, HA/QF buying 5-10 frames isn't going to keep that from happening. No way DL could sell the 717 and get enough money per frame or total to buy replacements.

DL would probably look at it from an ROI angle. There are 3 buyers who really like the aircraft QF, DL, and HA. Outside of those operators no one wants them, and there are not many left. If DL wants to expand their 717 fleet they will have to over pay for a 15 year old frame (they are bidding against HA). The alternative is that DL, who does not own 88 of their frames, buys only a portion of their 717s. Since they will only be exposed to 5 frames, they could care less about the frame value.

Obviously with DL's 717 history, they won't retire the 717 any time soon, but they would have the pick of the best frames when leases expire, with very low prices, and they can make the fleet as big as they want. To allow that scenario to happen they would have to back fill the capacity with a similar sized aircraft (the c-series), that could also serve as a base to replace other frames that will be retired in the near future (md80s).

The 717s serve a current purpose, but could DL better fill that role while they have a large amount of flexibility on a large fleet?

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 54): Obviously with DL's 717 history, they won't retire the 717 any time soon, but they would have the pick of the best frames when leases expire, with very low prices, and they can make the fleet as big as they want.

Neither Boeing or WN wants those frames back. DL will get to pay what they want to keep those 88 frames.

I cant see how DL could justify the E190, 717 & C-series all in the DL fleet.

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 55): Neither Boeing or WN wants those frames back. DL will get to pay what they want to keep those 88 frames. I cant see how DL could justify the E190, 717 & C-series all in the DL fleet.

WN's 717 leases should start to end soon, unless they extended it since the acquisition was announced, I know AirTran's 717 leases were to be up towards the end of this decade.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 40): Quoting DTWPurserBoy (Reply 39): why else would he have bought such a huge number of 737-700 All 10 of them =)

You truncated the sentence to completely change the meaning of it. DL has a large number of 737NGs in their fleet, and continue to buy them.

That said, even though you can guess my allegiance, I still hope the C Series succeeds. Having healthy competitors is good for any industry.

Delta will continue to fly their 717s until they are timed out. Those that are retired will be used as feed stock to keep those remaining still flying. Delta acquired their 717s knowing that they would be the last operator of the 717.   

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 56): WN's 717 leases should start to end soon, unless they extended it since the acquisition was announced, I know AirTran's 717 leases were to be up towards the end of this decade.

You're saying completely different things regarding the same entity.

Quoting chrisp390 (Thread starter): Thoughts?

I would find it strange & unexpected to hear from the side of Delta, I am always under the impression Delta does not like to experiment with new aircraft technologies for which CSeries is one.

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 59): You're saying completely different things regarding the same entity.

What is confusing? I know that AirTran had the leases until the end of this decade. Unless Southwest some how extended that to sub lease to Delta, Southwest should be out getting out of some of the leases within the next few years.

Quoting chrisp390 (Thread starter): Delta just said in its investor call that the CSeries is a very impressive aircraft and would buy it at the right price! Thoughts?

I think advance congratulations are in order for Bombardier.

DL will buy "at the right price". Bombardier are desperate to sell in volume.

I for one think it's a given that the "right price" will be agreed upon in the not-so-distant future.


Faro

It sure is an impressive aircraft, it doesn't mean DL would buy it.

Air Canada: Cant Find Business Case For C-Series (by LAXintl Jan 19 2016 in Civil Aviation)

And

Bombardier had built a damn good plane. And nobody was buying it.

Everyone agrees CSeries is an impressive aircraft, except nobody buys it because they can't make the business case.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 63): Everyone agrees CSeries is an impressive aircraft, except nobody buys it because they can't make the business case.

I think that will change during the next couple of years, as slimline seats and smart-flex galley/lavatories combinations become the norm on the A320 and B738.
The A320/NEO will go from being a 150-seat two-class / 180-seat one-class aircraft to 160-180-seat two-class / 186-192-seat one-class.
The B738/MAX8 will go from being 150-166-seat two-class / 189-seat one-class to 166-186-seat two-class / 189-200-seat one-class.

That's a lot of seats to sell and many routes will not have such demand on every flight, and a 135-150-seat CS300 slots in well between 100 and 180 seats.

Quoting Atlflyer (Reply 21): Here is RA's quote: “We actually think at the right price it’s quite a competitive airplane, particularly given the engine technology,” he said. “We’re taking a very serious look at it.”

I take that as a signal that time will be spent evaluating how Cseries would work for their network. Not much point in putting time into serious evaluation unless the aircraft looks like it is a realistic candidate.

Quoting enilria (Reply 14): I also question how anybody can buy a plane with the selling point being fuel savings when oil is nearly free at this point. I think I'd get used planes now and think about this plane when fuel is expensive again.

That's obviously not how airlines think.....any planes ordered today will be in service with the airline for the next 15-20 years at least.....oil is certainly not going to stay at current levels forever.....waiting for oil prices to rise and then looking around for suitable planes would be suicidal for airlines.....they have to plan for the next 10 - 15 years at least....

Quoting art (Reply 65): Quoting Atlflyer (Reply 21): Here is RA's quote: “We actually think at the right price it’s quite a competitive airplane, particularly given the engine technology,” he said. “We’re taking a very serious look at it.” I take that as a signal that time will be spent evaluating how Cseries would work for their network. Not much point in putting time into serious evaluation unless the aircraft looks like it is a realistic candidate.

Big carriers have dozens of people who sole job is evaluating aircraft buys in network simulations.

Aside from the tactic of negotaiting in public - think to RA's statement about available 777s for less than $10 million, and later announcing such a transaction at $7.x million - this really signifies nothing. Wow, are BBD-fans desperately grasping for good news.

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 50): You can add the early group of A320s, about delivered 1990-1993, to that list of aircraft to be replaced. DL could take 3 CS aircraft a month __for a decade__ and not overbuy.

So Delta is going to replace a bunch of 150-160 airplanes with 130 seat airplanes?

not going to happen. As i posted before, MD88s will probably be a MAX8 order. A320s will be staying around now that Airbus is going to 75K cycles. They were to be replaced with 737s but that plan has changed with the life getting longer.

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 54): If DL wants to expand their 717 fleet they will have to over pay for a 15 year old frame (they are bidding against HA).

They didn't overpay for the 3 SAS frames they got.

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 54): Obviously with DL's 717 history, they won't retire the 717 any time soon, but they would have the pick of the best frames when leases expire, with very low prices, and they can make the fleet as big as they want. To allow that scenario to happen they would have to back fill the capacity with a similar sized aircraft (the c-series), that could also serve as a base to replace other frames that will be retired in the near future (md80s).

As I posted this is not how the 717 lease deal works.
All the planes from Boeing become Delta's at the end of the leases, period. No negotiations, no asking QF or HA, they belong to Delta.
I believe a few other frames are held by other leasers and all of those planes also has an end up at DL deal at the end of the leases.
This is all per Anderson at an employee meeting. Somewhere there is a video of it floating on the internet. (unless DL pulled it down)
Also as I said about I don't see them going down to replace the MD88s. I fully expect that to be a 738/739 v 320/321 order(or both). Possible NGs/CEOs to start but mostly MAX/NEO.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 56): WN's 717 leases should start to end soon, unless they extended it since the acquisition was announced, I know AirTran's 717 leases were to be up towards the end of this decade.

IIRC DL has said the leases start to end in ~7 years. (note that was two years ago when they started to take them)

Quoting NWAROOSTER (Reply 58): Delta will continue to fly their 717s until they are timed out.

probably not.

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 63): Everyone agrees CSeries is an impressive aircraft, except nobody buys it because they can't make the business case.

exactly. IMO this is exactly what RA is saying.
Look the E90E2 is running at 54M list, so 25M-32M at industry standard discounts. E95E2 is 60M list, so 30M-36M at discount.
The C100 is 71M so 35M-43M at discount and the C300 is 82M so 41M-49M per frame.
And the E2 has the same GTF that RA thinks is great. Obviously the C-series has better legs but since this will likely be a 100 seater competition does DL really need a 100 seater that can fly a cross the country? probably not. (in a high fuel market it would burn money)

This has been DLs issue with the 787. Great plane, but they don't need a 767 replacement that can fly ATL-NRT, they need something optimized for ATL-CDG. Its the same deal here and I think in the case of a lot of airlines looking at the 100 seat size aircraft.

Yes the C300 would be a much better replacement for the 73G/319 aircraft but DL isn't replacing these right now so that isn't a factor. IMO, at least in the next 10 years, the C-series chance went away when the E90s happened. In the short term, DL can add more CF34 powered E90s if they want (again, TechOps has a CF34 shop so it isn't like its really like they are adding a new engine type) and then add GTF powered E90s later.
I will also say the way DL is being aggressive in the engine MRO game as of late, I would not be shocked at all if Anderson isn't thinking about the evolution of TechOps in narrowbody MRO game. I expect DL will stay close with both Pratt and CFM in the future

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 55): Neither Boeing or WN wants those frames back. DL will get to pay what they want to keep those 88 frames.

HA is the one wild card in the equation. I would think that they would be willing to pay more for them than anyone else, if they came on the open market.

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 67): Aside from the tactic of negotaiting in public - think to RA's statement about available 777s for less than $10 million, and later announcing such a transaction at $7.x million - this really signifies nothing. Wow, are BBD-fans desperately grasping for good news.

I think DL may well announce an order for one BBD C-series jet   

Quoting silentbob (Reply 69): HA is the one wild card in the equation. I would think that they would be willing to pay more for them than anyone else, if they came on the open market.

The problem is, HA is only going to need so many 717s.
I think the bidding war will happen for some of the T5(if they park them) and V7 then at that point the 717 market will die.
26 airplanes is a lot of airplanes between QF and HA.


also I could see DL being done with the 717 now that the E90 is joining the fleet and is, IMO, better for what they are wanting to do with them than the 717 out of SEA/LAX and SLC.

Quoting Sooner787 (Reply 11): IIRC McDonnell Douglas used that strategy to sell the 1st batch of Super 80's to Bob Crandall and AA. That eventually led to AA operating 360 plus Super 80's for more than 2 decades

For the record, the MD-80s were never sold to AA at a loss. AA opted for a five year risk free lease on the first 20 aircraft. Then added on 13 in short order. And within one year placed an order for 167 more, at which 1/5.5 was basically free. It's no different than what A and B do today, just then it was landmark.

If you want to research orders sold at a loss, look into NW and AC's original A320 orders...

Quoting 777X (Reply 26): Why would they buy the CSeries when they just ordered the E190?

The E190s could prove to be a stopgap measure if their in-service performance proves to be less than desirable. DL could also turn around and order the E2. We don't know yet. But the E190 is not without it's in-service criticism.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 35): DL would be better off ordering the CS300 to replace the 73G and A319.

   This actually makes a lot of sense. And I would add the E190 as well, provided DL caps at the 20 used AC frames. All that said, replacing the 73G and A319 with the CS300 does not appear to be the direction DL is headed at this point in time.

Quoting deltadawg (Reply 46): the CSeries coming into DL only makes sense seeing that it is almost a one for one replacement of the 717.

With that reasoning the C-Series makes absolutely no sense. They will not be replacing 717s anytime soon.

Quoting JHwk (Reply 48): Always the possibility that Delta can sell the 717s at a profit, at least a fair number of them.would seem odd with the E90s though...

Not really. Not until 2024, and by then they will be far more depreciated in residual value.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 51): Cycles don't really matter at Delta (sorry MD fan boys) what matters is ROI, Delta views airplanes as 25-30 year investments. Its pretty safe to bet by year 30 they will be in replacement mode big time.

Of course cycles matter. It ensures the 717 will not be retired prematurely before the ROI period you cite. No 757 style cycle-outs here. And the 717 WILL surpass 30 years at DL - not in service time, but age.

Quoting Web500sjc (Reply 54): DL would probably look at it from an ROI angle. There are 3 buyers who really like the aircraft QF, DL, and HA. Outside of those operators no one wants them, and there are not many left. If DL wants to expand their 717 fleet they will have to over pay for a 15 year old frame (they are bidding against HA).

In my estimation, ~40 717s will hit the market between now and end of decade. The value resurgence is a great story and validates the aircraft as an effective solution under the proper market conditions within the industry. But the values will drop again and even fall below what they were when DL acquired the FL fleet. All the while most aircraft will be below 50k cylces, or >50% its useful remaining life. This will give DL the opportunity to bring on additional 717s at MD-90 style bargain prices, if they so chose.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 56): WN's 717 leases should start to end soon, unless they extended it since the acquisition was announced, I know AirTran's 717 leases were to be up towards the end of this decade.

There is a 7 year BCC lease extension at the termination of the WN contract. The last of the FL 717s comes off lease in 2031, and by that time the other 87 will be owned outright.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 68): A320s will be staying around now that Airbus is going to 75K cycles.

I think this will be fluid given it is un-chartered territory for the A320 and many of them have the inferior engines and early CRT avionics. I see a retirement between 2020-2025. No chance they ever reach 75k cycles.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 68): IIRC DL has said the leases start to end in ~7 years. (note that was two years ago when they started to take them)

2024 to be exact.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 71): also I could see DL being done with the 717 now that the E90 is joining the fleet and is, IMO, better for what they are wanting to do with them than the 717 out of SEA/LAX and SLC.

That's a bold proclamation for the E190, given the type hasn't even had EIS yet. Of course I 100% disagree about DL being done with the 717. Values will nosedive in 5-10 years, making it a can't miss option. At that time, a 20 year old 717 will still be quite short in the tooth. Just as the oldest MD-90s are today.

I would be very surprised to see DL order the CSeries. But whatever DL chooses, they better get on their horse in a hurry and buy it. Even if they average a gaudy 30 years out of every airplane they operate, what they have on order now for the years ahead is about what they need to average for 30 straight years only to maintain the fleet count, let alone grow it.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 71): also I could see DL being done with the 717 now that the E90 is joining the fleet and is, IMO, better for what they are wanting to do with them than the 717 out of SEA/LAX and SLC.

I disagree because I have been on plenty of MD-90 flights that should have been a 738 by those standards. The 717 will be a very important part of Delta's fleet for a pretty decent amount of time just like the MD-90's are. The E90 will help Delta but don't just disregard the 717 because it is an important part of this fleet and there is still some potential to grow it some in the future.

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 73): There is a 7 year BCC lease extension at the termination of the WN contract. The last of the FL 717s comes off lease in 2031, and by that time the other 87 will be owned outright.

So Southwest will own 87 and the Southwest leases on the 717 (not including any of Delta's new 717 leases) will be up in 2031? I knew some about the FL leases but not much about anything since.

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 73): In my estimation, ~40 717s will hit the market between now and end of decade.

Uhh..no. In my estimation about 25-30 will hit the market between now and ~2020. Voletea's and Turkmenistan's. I don't see QF and HA (the only other 717 operators) dropping their 717s anytime soon, especially with HA talking about wanting to acquire a few more. I believe all of Blue1's have been spoken for, split between DL and Volotea.

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 73): Of course I 100% disagree about DL being done with the 717. Values will nosedive in 5-10 years, making it a can't miss option. At that time, a 20 year old 717 will still be quite short in the tooth. Just as the oldest MD-90s are today.

I agree with you that Delta will gladly pick up any 717 that it can...but I think you are overestimating how many 717s are actually left. This isn't like the MD-90 where DL had 16 out of ~116 and grew from there, and which other operators could easily replace their MD-90s with 738s/A320s. DL already has (contracts for at least) 92 out of the 155 717s, and 36 of the remaining 63 are in the hands of airlines very happy with the 717 (and 18 of those are in the hand of an airline that has no other aircraft to replace the 717s with). After Volotea used 717s are going to quickly dry up.

[Edited 2016-01-22 05:57:23]

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 75): So Southwest will own 87 and the Southwest leases on the 717 (not including any of Delta's new 717 leases) will be up in 2031?

WN owns only 10 717 aircraft. The remaining 717s are leased from BCC. DL is sub-leasing them from WN. When the WN lease terms expire with BCC (2017-2024), the aircraft will transfer to a 7 year extension on a direct lease with BCC. This includes 76 aircraft on operating lease. Their are 2 717s on capital lease, which will likely transfer to full DL ownership at the term of the WN contract.

Quoting polot (Reply 76): Uhh..no

Articulate much?  

Quoting polot (Reply 76): In my estimation about 25-30 will hit the market between now and ~2020. Voletea's and Turkmenistan's. I don't see QF and HA (the only other 717 operators) dropping their 717s anytime soon, especially with HA talking about wanting to acquire a few more.

QF is a wild card. Neither of us are privy to their strategic planning, so it is a coin flip. IIRC, the Cobham agreement will be up for renewal in 2018. As a hypothetical, let's say they do a 5 year extension with fleet replacement taking place during that time. That would add up to 46 717s potentially hitting the market, (accounting for all V7, QF, and T5 aircraft). Maybe the last of the 46 retired during 2022-23 is more realistic.

HA will fly them until they cycle-out. That should go without saying.

Quoting polot (Reply 76): I think you are overestimating how many 717s are actually left. This isn't like the MD-90 where DL had 16 out of ~116 and grew from there, and which other operators could easily replace their MD-90s with 738s/A320s. DL already has (contracts for at least) 92 out of the 155 717s, and 36 of the remaining 63 are in the hands of airlines very happy with the 717 (and 18 of those are in the hand of an airline that has no other aircraft to replace the 717s with).

No overestimation. I have said all along that I think an eventual fleet of 120 is possible for DL. To clarify some facts, they have 91 of 154 reserved. V7's 19 aircraft will soon become available. And 27 aircraft from T5 and QF will inevitably follow in the coming years. To get to 120, DL would need to acquire 29/46. Any rational conversation on available used 717s should be exclusive of HA's fleet.

Delta's 717's have an average age of 14 years old. There 767's have an average age of 19.5 years. Delta needs to always look ahead. If Delta orders the CS100, they would probably get them in 2017/18. The 717's will be 16 to 17 years old. Also, I don't know when the 717's lease are up and does Delta want to pay Southwest for planes when they are disputing the Dallas gates. Delta may hand them all back and you deal with them.

According to "Airliner World" latest edition, Voletea plan to phase out the B717 in favor of an all A320 family fleet. This will make DL smile if they have not already optioned the aircraft.

I would love to see Delta buy the CSeries, I just can't see it fit anywhere in there strategy...

Quoting Beatyair (Reply 78): Delta may hand them all back and you deal with them.

WN is leasing most of the planes from Boeing Capital. DL is subleasing them from WN until the end of those leases. When DL's sublease are up so are WN's leases and the planes are no longer WN's problem. DL could terminate the subleases..but then they are breaching their contract which is going to cost them money.

Also this is the airline that up until a few years ago was operating 30+ year old DC-9s. They are not going to dump 717s when they are only 16/17 years old.

Quoting Beatyair (Reply 78): Delta's 717's have an average age of 14 years old. There 767's have an average age of 19.5 years. Delta needs to always look ahead. If Delta orders the CS100, they would probably get them in 2017/18. The 717's will be 16 to 17 years old. Also, I don't know when the 717's lease are up and does Delta want to pay Southwest for planes when they are disputing the Dallas gates. Delta may hand them all back and you deal with them.

If Delta is satisfied with the Boeing 717, they will keep the aircraft until they time out. Any dispute with Southwest is secondary and Delta will not bite off their nose just to teach Southwest a lesson. Delta is a very astute and profitable business and they have more important fish to fry.   

Quoting a380787 (Reply 2):

They bought the A350 at the same stage of production.

I would love to see DL buy the C Series. I think it would be a win for both Bombardier and Delta.