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LAXintl
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US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:06 pm

As previously discussed ( U.S Might Gain Daytime Haneda Slots (by LAXintl Sep 11 2015 in Civil Aviation) ), the US and Japan in late December reached a tentative deal which would allow for 10 daytime slots (5 US + 5 Japan carriers) for service between the nations per Delta chief legal officer Ben Hirst. The deal is expected to be finalized by February.

Mr. Hirst however says that Delta strongly opposes this small scale agreement saying it would only serve to divert Tokyo O&D traffic away from NRT which is critical to Delta in order to support its hub operations. Even being awarded a few HND slots would be problematic for DL as it would still be forced to operate a split operation which would weaken things.

AA on the other hand says "American urges the US government to finalise a deal to allow US carriers to operate at Haneda during times that are convenient and desirable for US travellers."

Delta seeks to squash tentative Haneda deal
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...quash-tentative-haneda-dea-420991/

=

Sorry Delta. The deal is the best for travelling public on both sides of the ocean. You probably need to come up with a better Asia/Pacific strategy instead of trying to scuttle things for everyone else.

[Edited 2016-01-20 11:07:37]
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Sightseer
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:10 pm

'Bout time. Now the question becomes, how will the five slots per side be allocated?
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:11 pm

Of course Delta is going to pitch a hissy fit, even though they have been diminishing their reliance on their Narita hub since boosting Seattle. Perhaps if their relationship with Korean was better, they'd simply route connecting traffic over ICN.

At any rate, this is good news for US-Haneda service.
 
ScottB
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:13 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Mr. Hirst however says that Delta strongly opposes this small scale agreement saying it would only serve to divert Tokyo O&D traffic away from NRT which is critical to Delta in order to support its hub operations. Even being awarded a few HND slots would be problematic for DL as it would still be forced to operate a split operation which would weaken things.

Well, that clearly explains why DL was making noise about dropping MSP-NRT if U.S. access to HND were to be expanded. They don't have a Japanese partner with HND operations so they're basically screwed and so is the NRT hub. IMO NRT ultimately looks a lot like LGW during the Bermuda II days.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
AA on the other hand says "American urges the US government to finalise a deal to allow US carriers to operate at Haneda during times that are convenient and desirable for US travellers."

And this works out very well for AA & UA who can access the large hub operations of their Japanese partners.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:19 pm

MSP travelers might need to get use to a stop in SEA   
(for those who maybe dont know Delta has publicly said MSP-NRT might have to get canned if this happens) a route i think is hanging on by strings anyway and was on the chopping block anyway. I hate to see it go given NWA history on the route but i think its gonna happen

no seriously this is probably going to happen, no matter what Delta says and they know it.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:23 pm

UA would probably also be in favor of daytime slots for its SFO flight.
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:24 pm

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 1):
'Bout time. Now the question becomes, how will the five slots per side be allocated?

JP side is probably 3 NH 2 JL. 2xHNL 2xLAX 1x SFO.

US side is weird. If based on competition alone, it would be HA AA UA then DLx2 to compensate lack of JV. But given the headache DL is giving everyone, the DOT might be pissed enough to award AAx2 or UAx2.

AA would apply LAX+DFW. UA applies SFO+ORD. HA for HNL obviously. They would continue applying for KOA and continued to be ignored. DL would try to over-apply with LAX+SEA+DTW+JFK, and somewhat likely, only end up with 1.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:26 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Mr. Hirst however says that Delta strongly opposes this small scale agreement saying it would only serve to divert Tokyo O&D traffic away from NRT which is critical to Delta in order to support its hub operations. Even being awarded a few HND slots would be problematic for DL as it would still be forced to operate a split operation which would weaken things.

DL are a bunch of jokers. This coming from the company who has two hubs 11 miles apart from each other.  
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:28 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 6):
HA for HNL obviously.

Could be for KOA, too, as they had previously applied for...
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:31 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 6):
JP side is probably 3 NH 2 JL. 2xHNL 2xLAX 1x SFO.

NH has been wanted to convert its early morning, late night arrival ORD and JFK flights to HND. JL wanted HND-DFW for a while before launched NRT-DFW few months ago. If they can keep nighttime slots (no details yet?), then nighttime slots can be used for Hawaii and west coast while daytime slots can go further east. Hopefully they remove post-midnight departure restriction from HND if nighttime slots will still be there.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:33 pm

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 7):
This coming from the company who has two hubs 11 miles apart from each other.  

So does AA (technically, they have four hubs within a 214-mile radius). Regardless, I'm not sure how that is relevant when DL's nearest "hub" to NRT is 4,769 miles away.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:39 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Mr. Hirst however says that Delta strongly opposes this small scale agreement saying it would only serve to divert Tokyo O&D traffic away from NRT which is critical to Delta in order to support its hub operations.
Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 2):
Of course Delta is going to pitch a hissy fit, even though they have been diminishing their reliance on their Narita hub since boosting Seattle.

  

As has been discussed at length in numerous threads - going back years, actually - it's obvious why Delta, just like Northwest before it, is so opposed to this and instead is advocating the "all or nothing" negotiating approach (which they know full well is almost certain to ultimately result in "nothing" as opposed to "all").

Just as many of us predicted several years ago - Delta's competitive position at NRT specifically continues to weaken, and its competitive lead across the Pacific in general continues to narrow versus merged, post-bankruptcy, JAL JV/ATI-immunized AA.

Put simply - Delta, like Northwest before it, has the most to lose.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 6):
If based on competition alone, it would be HA AA UA then DLx2 to compensate lack of JV.

Personally, this is what I expect will happen - the DOT will divide up the available frequencies equally among AA, Hawaiian and United, and then Delta will succeed in getting two of the available frequencies.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:42 pm

Which ORD departure for NH would that be, the early one or the later one (after UA)?
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:43 pm

Quoting HeeseokKoo (Reply 9):

NH has been wanted to convert its early morning, late night arrival ORD and JFK flights to HND. JL wanted HND-DFW for a while before launched NRT-DFW few months ago. If they can keep nighttime slots (no details yet?), then nighttime slots can be used for Hawaii and west coast while daytime slots can go further east. Hopefully they remove post-midnight departure restriction from HND if nighttime slots will still be there.

The best case would be for UA+NH and AA+JL to "split the work" to maximize coverage - Hawaii, West Coast (LAX+SFO), Central Time (ORD+DFW), and Northeast (most likely NYC).

I only thing I'm more certain is that IAH and IAD won't be on the shortlist.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:49 pm

Quoting ORD+Boy+2" class="quote" target="_blank">ORD Boy 2 (Reply 12):
Which ORD departure for NH would that be, the early one or the later one (after UA)?

I'm guessing the non-core one :

Chicago (ORD) to Tokyo (NRT) ANA 113 Dep: 5:25 pm Arr: 8:20 pm

Tokyo (NRT) to Chicago (ORD) ANA 114 Dep: 5:10 pm Arr: 2:45 pm
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:56 pm

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 10):
So does AA (technically, they have four hubs within a 214-mile radius). Regardless, I'm not sure how that is relevant when DL's nearest "hub" to NRT is 4,769 miles away.

Here's another example then from Domestic:

Delta serves 4 airports within a 50 mile radius of it's LAX hub just from SLC! Much less from other places.

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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:59 pm

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 15):
Here's another example then from Domestic:

Delta serves 4 airports within a 50 mile radius of it's LAX hub just from SLC! Much less from other places.

That's also a terrible example. Those are all spokes connected to a hub.
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Rdh3e
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:02 pm

Quoting OA412 (Reply 16):
That's also a terrible example. Those are all spokes connected to a hub.

Which is what HND would be. It would be a spoke that is very close to a hub, much like BUR/ONT/SNA/LGB are close to LAX. It's the exact same thing.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:05 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 3):
IMO NRT ultimately looks a lot like LGW during the Bermuda II days.

HND would have to significantly expand its Customs/Immigration facilities and processing capability, for that to happen.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 6):
2xHNL

Why would they waste daytime slots on HNL? Heavy O&D, and the previous timings don't seem to be a deterent.

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 7):
DL are a bunch of jokers.

...that just made 7Billion bucks in a year.
They don't have a clue what they're doing, and should defer to your wisdom on how to better their operations and results.  
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
a380787
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:15 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 18):

Quoting a380787 (Reply 6):
2xHNL

Why would they waste daytime slots on HNL? Heavy O&D, and the previous timings don't seem to be a deterent.

Now they're landing back at HND past 10pm. There's definitely some utility in arriving back in Tokyo a bit earlier than that.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:15 pm

Would this be in addition to the current evening offerings, or would these replace them? Would anyone want to retain their evening offerings? UA Guam-Haneda?
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Sightseer
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:20 pm

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 17):

Quoting OA412 (Reply 16):
That's also a terrible example. Those are all spokes connected to a hub.

Which is what HND would be. It would be a spoke that is very close to a hub, much like BUR/ONT/SNA/LGB are close to LAX. It's the exact same thing.

I'm not sure I understand your premise. Is the implication that AA & DL shouldn't fly to EWR because they have hubs across the Hudson? There's enough O&D traffic to justify them having a presence at EWR; that also goes for UA at LGA. For now at least, it's the same with HND/NRT.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:27 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 18):
...that just made 7Billion bucks in a year.
They don't have a clue what they're doing, and should defer to your wisdom on how to better their operations and results.  

They are hypocrites. Not saying they don't know how to run an airline. They are just talking out of both sides of their mouths.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 21):
I'm not sure I understand your premise. Is the implication that AA & DL shouldn't fly to EWR because they have hubs across the Hudson? There's enough O&D traffic to justify them having a presence at EWR; that also goes for UA at LGA. For now at least, it's the same with HND/NRT.

That's my point. DL is saying that HND flights would destroy their NRT flights profits because HND and NRT are close to each other. Meanwhile, all over the US they are operating to airports near their hubs and even hubs that are near their other hubs. It's a completely non-sense argument that should be treated for what it is, complete and utter BS.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:32 pm

Five slots shouldn't be detrimental to DL. They can move their LAX-HND to a better time, and if they're lucky and get a second slot they can bring back SEA-HND with a timing that works or move JFK-NRT to JFK-HND. It doesn't seem like moving 1 flight (maybe) from NRT to HND would kill the NRT operation...
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:34 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Mr. Hirst however says that Delta strongly opposes this small scale agreement saying it would only serve to divert Tokyo O&D traffic away from NRT which is critical to Delta in order to support its hub operations. Even being awarded a few HND slots would be problematic for DL as it would still be forced to operate a split operation which would weaken things.

Delta has to stop being the crying Southern Belle, no one is strong arming them to move any NRT flights to Haneda. When they merged with NW in 2009 they knew this might happen some day. Partially relevent, its not ones fault but Delta's that it is on bad terms with Korean Air, its main Asian Partner. DL has hubs in Seattle, KAL in Seoul and China Eastern in Shanghai, how many Asian hubs does its want. Tokyo as a hub is not what it used to be and its expiration date has arrived as a hub. Its time for a new Pacific Strategy for Delta.

[Edited 2016-01-20 13:06:33]
 
Sightseer
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:54 pm

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 22):
That's my point. DL is saying that HND flights would destroy their NRT flights profits because HND and NRT are close to each other. Meanwhile, all over the US they are operating to airports near their hubs and even hubs that are near their other hubs. It's a completely non-sense argument that should be treated for what it is, complete and utter BS.


OK. I guess a more analogous situation would be if DL had a scissor hub at LGW when, all of a sudden, LHR opened up to long-haul flights, but not enough for DL to move its entire hub. With LHR being in a more preferred location, the fear would be that, in the long run, it would vacuum up a lot of the O&D needed to support a hub at the less-convenient LGW.

Having said that, I agree DL's speech is hyperbolic and wish they would take other steps involving a certain South Korean airline to be more competitive across the Pacific.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:28 pm

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 22):
That's my point. DL is saying that HND flights would destroy their NRT flights profits because HND and NRT are close to each other. Meanwhile, all over the US they are operating to airports near their hubs and even hubs that are near their other hubs. It's a completely non-sense argument that should be treated for what it is, complete and utter BS.

No, there is validity to the argument in that their U.S. hubs are typically at airports with strong local O&D demand for that specific airport, while the nearby alternate airports they serve also have meaningful O&D demand specific to the airport. The O&D demand for NRT is for Tokyo, but with HND flights available at convenient times, the high-value O&D traffic to Tokyo will abandon the NRT flights. Virtually no one is going to Narita.

With immunized joint ventures, AA & UA can hand off traffic connecting at HND to their Japanese partners who currently serve from HND the key Asian markets DL serves from NRT (i.e. PVG/SHA, SIN, BKK, HKG, MNL). DL will struggle to fill flights to NRT because the O&D traffic will prefer HND, so the hub collapses.

The appropriate analogy is more akin to what would happen to IAD if DCA were hypothetically opened to long-haul international flights.
 
uberflieger
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:35 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 26):
O&D traffic will prefer HND

And is willing to pay a premium for it. At NRT Delta has to compete with steadily increasing LCC services / pricing.
 
jfk777
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:38 pm

The five slots, are they "new" or just moving the current 4 to daytime hours plus one new slot ? So will there be 5 or 9 slots in total ?
 
steex
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:41 pm

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 22):
That's my point. DL is saying that HND flights would destroy their NRT flights profits because HND and NRT are close to each other. Meanwhile, all over the US they are operating to airports near their hubs and even hubs that are near their other hubs. It's a completely non-sense argument that should be treated for what it is, complete and utter BS.

Whether one agrees with DL's argument or not, that is not what they are saying.

DL's argument is that Tokyo O&D traffic will prefer HND, and DL will therefore need to move USA-TYO flying to HND to better serve that O&D traffic (especially given that UA and AA will surely do the same). If DL, for example, moves JFK and DTW service over to HND, that's two fewer inbound flights at NRT feeding the onward intra-Asia flights, likely impacting their viability. If that results in withdrawal from routes like NRT-TPE and NRT-SIN, that takes away connecting traffic that DL was using to fill up planes on routes like MSP-NRT and PDX-NRT, potentially impacting their viability as well.

This is a non-issue for AA since they do not currently have fifth-freedom service at NRT, and it's a relative non-issue for UA since they can hand traffic off to NH at HND instead of NRT. DL is the only one of the three US majors so highly dependent on its own metal beyond NRT.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:44 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 29):

This is a non-issue for AA since they do not currently have fifth-freedom service at NRT, and it's a relative non-issue for UA since they can hand traffic off to NH at HND instead of NRT. DL is the only one of the three US majors so highly dependent on its own metal beyond NRT.

Times are a changing and Delta needs to adapt. The day may have arrived that Delta flights to Tokyo are about what they can sell to Tokyo and not beyond.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:44 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 26):
No, there is validity to the argument in that their U.S. hubs are typically at airports with strong local O&D demand for that specific airport, while the nearby alternate airports they serve also have meaningful O&D demand specific to the airport. The O&D demand for NRT is for Tokyo, but with HND flights available at convenient times, the high-value O&D traffic to Tokyo will abandon the NRT flights. Virtually no one is going to Narita.
Quoting uberflieger (Reply 27):
And is willing to pay a premium for it. At NRT Delta has to compete with steadily increasing LCC services / pricing.

All of which is to say that - just as many of us have been saying for years, since even before the Delta/Northwest merger - there is no question that Delta is facing, and will continue to face, an uphill battle in TYO against larger, stronger competitors. And, obviously, that would be the case with or without further opening up HND.

That being said, though, the tone and implications of that hyperbolic memo from Delta's GC are comically ridiculous. Opening up HND isn't going to lead Delta to drop - short-run or long-run - essentially all of its flights to Japan. We're talking about one of the largest, wealthiest and most technologically advanced societies, and one of the largest U.S. trading partners, on the face of the earth, and Delta is going to steadily cut flights from LAX, JFK, MSP, PDX, DTW and ATL because it doesn't have a partner and/or beyond-HND access? Please. I continue to believe that as beyond-NRT feed becomes less economical, PDX is likely on the edge and may well be better served by either JAL or ANA. But LAX, JFK, MSP, DTW, SEA and ATL - those six large hubs/O&D markets/gateways should, at a minimum, each be able to handle at least a daily 777 or A330 without one bit of beyond-TYO feed (and, of course, Delta will have at least some feed from alliance partners no matter what).

[Edited 2016-01-20 13:53:29]
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:46 pm

Quoting FSDan (Reply 23):
Five slots shouldn't be detrimental to DL. They can move their LAX-HND to a better time, and if they're lucky and get a second slot they can bring back SEA-HND with a timing that works or move JFK-NRT to JFK-HND.

   exactly. the reality is that DL needs to maintain NRT access from several of its core "hub" markets such as MSP, ATL and HNL that are either 1) DL hubs with limited service to Asia or 2). large O&D markets. HND will not impact those by a large margin.

DTW is connected to multiple Asian markets so the purpose of HND to NRT is a toss-up. That really only leaves LAX, SEA and JFK as contenders for HND daytime slots, and odds are that DL will only be given the opportunity to access one of them, two at the most. It would be prudent to move the LAX flight and consider re-instating the SEA flight (if two are offered to them, which is probably unlikely).

In the grand scheme of things, DL may have the most to LOSE in Japan, but it has been GIVEN the MOST at Haneda with LAX, DTW and SEA.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:46 pm

Delta has also explained that they hope to add more international service from SEA instead of sending people to NRT and then connect. So I think Delta's days of a hub at NRT are numbered with the SEA expansion anyway.
 
aeroblogger
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:48 pm

This will finally give UA the opportunity to fly GUM-HND using the existing nighttime slots.
#AvGeek
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:50 pm

Quoting steex (Reply 29):

I agree with you, but from your second paragraph I wonder if DOT will be more concerned about O&D to Tokyo, or about those continuing on to other points in Asia. It seems that O&D would win in this case, since Americans would be able to arrive at MNL (etc.) via other connecting cities. If DL really can't fill planes just to HND (how is it's LAX flight doing?), I suppose they need to really build up Seattle like UA is doing with SFO.

And on a side note, if AMS were to suddenly become slot-controlled, I doubt DL would be at all opposed 
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:55 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 4):
(for those who maybe dont know Delta has publicly said MSP-NRT might have to get canned if this happens) a route i think is hanging on by strings anyway and was on the chopping block anyway.

Just wondering, do you have any evidence to support your assertion that MSP-NRT is "hanging on by strings?"
First flight: NW DC-10 MKE-MSP December 1996
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Rdh3e
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:06 pm

Quoting KGRB (Reply 36):
Just wondering, do you have any evidence to support your assertion that MSP-NRT is "hanging on by strings?"
DL Threatens To Drop MSP-NRT (by jetblastdubai Jan 13 2016 in Civil Aviation)
 
ScottB
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:09 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 31):
That being said, though, the tone and implications of that hyperbolic memo from Delta's GC are comically ridiculous. Opening up HND isn't going to lead Delta to drop - short-run or long-run - essentially all of its flights to Japan. We're talking about one of the largest, wealthiest and most technologically advanced societies, and one of the largest U.S. trading partners, on the face of the earth, and Delta is going to steadily cut flights from LAX, JFK, MSP, PDX, DTW and ATL because it doesn't have a partner and/or beyond-HND access? Please. I continue to believe that as beyond-NRT feed becomes less economical, PDX is likely on the edge and may well be better served by either JAL or ANA. But LAX, JFK, MSP, DTW and ATL - those five large hubs/O&D gateways should, at a minimum, each be able to handle at least a daily 777 or A330 without one bit of beyond-TYO feed

I'm not convinced that JFK-NRT on DL survives if both NH and JL choose to fly HND-JFK. MSP-NRT is already an A330-200. There's no point in serving both LAX-NRT & LAX-HND without the intra-Asia flights at NRT. PDX-NRT almost certainly fails with no connecting feed at either end. So if they were to get two of the daytime slots, I could see them adding ATL-HND & DTW-HND and dropping everything at NRT.

That's not to say that I think that U.S. aviation policy should be driven by what's good for one carrier over another and most certainly not for one carrier over the traveling public as a whole. But there will be fallout and IMO the DL hub at NRT is toast.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 33):
Delta has also explained that they hope to add more international service from SEA instead of sending people to NRT and then connect. So I think Delta's days of a hub at NRT are numbered with the SEA expansion anyway.

   SEA is definitely the replacement for NRT along with PVG/MU.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:15 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):

   SEA is definitely the replacement for NRT along with PVG/MU.

PVG/MU is a very poor substitute for ICN/KE, both the airport and the airline. Other than tertiary destinations inside mainland China, there's rarely anything that PVG/MU does better than ICN/KE.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:19 pm

I expect to be laughed out of town for saying this, but IMHO we have reached a point where DL needed 787s yesterday. I know that they are seeking to reduce Capex spending and debt, and didn't perceive a need for that type with A330s in their fleet, but on paper the 788 looks like the airplane that would make SEA to secondary Asia viable.
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:27 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 40):
IMHO we have reached a point where DL needed 787s yesterday

  
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:33 pm

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 25):
wish they would take other steps involving a certain South Korean airline to be more competitive across the Pacific.

  
KE is by far the best and most logical partner. The inability to come up with an attractive enough deal all these years is baffling.

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 33):

Delta has also explained that they hope to add more international service from SEA instead of sending people to NRT and then connect. So I think Delta's days of a hub at NRT are numbered with the SEA expansion anyway.

But how good is SEA really working?

DL previously dropped KIX, and a major US-Asia market like HKG only gets 2x weekly SEA service?

Seems to me there is a real limit on what SEA can support to Asia.

Quoting psa1011 (Reply 35):
if AMS were to suddenly become slot-controlled,

AMS is slot controlled. Has been for a few decades.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 39):
PVG/MU is a very poor substitute for ICN/KE, both the airport and the airline. Other than tertiary destinations inside mainland China, there's rarely anything that PVG/MU does better than ICN/KE.

  
Also even with its ownership stake in MU, it cannot launch JV ops due lack of open-skies between China and the U.S.

As result the MU relationship will really be no more than a vanilla codeshare.

Also as side note, the split city ops of PVG/SHA further reduces PVGs utility particularly for inland China markets.
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:35 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
I'm not convinced that JFK-NRT on DL survives if both NH and JL choose to fly HND-JFK.

It is extremely difficult for me to imagine that the second largest airline in NYC metro, with 500+ daily flights in and out of the region, would be unable to support a single daily nonstop flight to TYO - with or without the onward feed that is already down to just basically a few 767s/777s as it is.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
MSP-NRT is already an A330-200.

And I suspect that's where it will stay, as of all of Delta's remaining U.S.-TYO routes (with the possible exception of PDX), I suspect MSP is the smallest O&D market.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
There's no point in serving both LAX-NRT & LAX-HND without the intra-Asia flights at NRT.

Agree. Notice how I said that LAX, SEA, MSP, DTW, JFK and ATL should be able to each support a daily flight to TYO - not NRT or HND, but TYO? I agree that if Delta truly does eliminate 100% of its beyond-TYO Asia flying - which, by the way, I think is still a ways off - that at that point any remaining U.S.-TYO flights would basically switch to HND on a 1-for-1 substitute basis with NRT. So if, for example, LAX-HND switched to a daytime schedule, it would replace LAX-NRT. Same with DTW-HND, or SEA-HND, or whatever.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
PDX-NRT almost certainly fails with no connecting feed at either end.

Agree. Since SFO was dropped, PDX-NRT is now by far the weakest link for Delta's U.S.-TYO network.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 38):
So if they were to get two of the daytime slots, I could see them adding ATL-HND & DTW-HND and dropping everything at NRT.

Delta would fly just two flights to the largest metro area, and capital of the third largest economy, on earth? No. Way.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:37 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 42):
KE is by far the best and most logical partner. The inability to come up with an attractive enough deal all these years is baffling.

Given all the reportage about Delta's relationships with its "partners" - like Alaska and Korean - and all the discussion surrounding Delta's strategic direction in Asia, the part that's most interesting to consider is that it seems with each passing year, the bargaining power and leverage between Delta and Korean shifts more and more towards the latter. At this point, given what Delta itself now readily acknowledges it is facing, the relationship with Korean just keeps getting more and more critical.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:46 pm

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 37):
Quoting KGRB (Reply 36):Just wondering, do you have any evidence to support your assertion that MSP-NRT is "hanging on by strings?"
DL Threatens To Drop MSP-NRT (by jetblastdubai Jan 13 2016 in Civil Aviation)

I have read that thread. I have seen no evidence that DL has publicly stated that MSP-NRT is "hanging on by strings," as slcdeltarumd11 has stated. DL threatening to drop the route and saying that it's "hanging on by strings" (implying that it has been struggling for some time) are two different things.
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:47 pm

The reality is that Delta needs to make amends with KE and build a healthy relationship at ICN, which is a wonderful Asian gateway and can replace NRT.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:59 pm

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 46):
The reality is that Delta needs to make amends with KE and build a healthy relationship at ICN, which is a wonderful Asian gateway and can replace NRT.

The issue is more likely that KE doesn't want to share revenues. Delta is willing, able and ready to share revenues with it's partners. Just look at their JV's and their investment in companies like AeroMexico, Gol and Virgin Atlantic.
 
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:05 pm

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 22):
They are hypocrites. Not saying they don't know how to run an airline. They are just talking out of both sides of their mouths.

How is this different from any other airline? Hint: they're all hypocrites. If AA or UA were in DL's position, they'd be doing the exact same thing. Do I agree with them, no, but on the one hand people on this board want airline's to be profitable at all costs and focus on the bottom line, but when the airline's do just that, people go ape s__t. This board really is baffling sometimes.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 42):
But how good is SEA really working?

DL previously dropped KIX, and a major US-Asia market like HKG only gets 2x weekly SEA service?

Seems to me there is a real limit on what SEA can support to Asia.

Here's the thing, DL dropped these two routes from DTW some time ago, along with HND, and when was the last time someone questioned DTW not working as an Asia hub for DL or predicted DTW's imminent demise as an Asia hub? I don't for a minute believe that SEA is overall profitable for DL right now, but it's also building a hub there in the face of a strong competitor. Look at how long it took NYC to become profitable for DL. I don't think dropping KIX, which has been a notoriously difficult nut to crack for every US airline, save for UA at SFO, is any indication that SEA is "not working." HKG is unfortunate, but DL, and NW before it, has never had much success at HKG, unlike UA. In large part, this is because UA's hubs are in strong US-HKG markets, whereas DL's tend not to be. Just look at CX. How long did it take them to start up secondary markets to HKG like BOS? Look at how long it took them to start ORD. Demand to HKG is concentrated in many of the larger markets in this country, and DL has not had a historically large presence in those markets.

Quoting commavia (Reply 44):
Given all the reportage about Delta's relationships with its "partners" - like Alaska and Korean - and all the discussion surrounding Delta's strategic direction in Asia, the part that's most interesting to consider is that it seems with each passing year, the bargaining power and leverage between Delta and Korean shifts more and more towards the latter. At this point, given what Delta itself now readily acknowledges it is facing, the relationship with Korean just keeps getting more and more critical.

While I'm just as baffled as anyone about the inability of DL and KE to come to some sort of agreement, I have to strongly disagree with you. For all the partners like KE and AS where the relationship has soured, DL has plenty of partners with whom it works very closely, such as AF, KL, AZ, AM, and MU. I do think the idea that DL is unable to work with partners is certainly overblown on this site.

I also have to disagree with the notion that bargaining power is necessarily shifting toward KE. People often ignore the fact that KE doesn't have a single JV agreement with another airline, yet DL has several. It's not as though DL is unwilling to enter into such agreements. In fact, it appears the reluctance rests with KE, not DL. At the end of the day, as the two TPAC JV's begin to grow in strength, I think KE will be feeling the squeeze just as much as DL. They can certainly turn to AA, but I don't think they're going to find AA's terms all that different from DL's. Both are huge airlines with access to the world's largest aviation market, a market that dwarfs South Korea. KE can gain better access to that market via DL or, hypothetically, AA, but it's not as though AA is going to grant them that access on KE's terms.

Quoting klkla (Reply 47):
Quoting C010T3 (Reply 46):
The reality is that Delta needs to make amends with KE and build a healthy relationship at ICN, which is a wonderful Asian gateway and can replace NRT.

The issue is more likely that KE doesn't want to share revenues. Delta is willing, able and ready to share revenues with it's partners. Just look at their JV's and their investment in companies like AeroMexico, Gol and Virgin Atlantic.

The thing is that we don't what the issue is. Some posters claim to have inside knowledge, but if they did, they wouldn't be divulging it on this site given all the ramifications. People point to AS and KE as proof that DL is unwilling to work with its partners. Yet on the other hand, it has several JV agreements, and AM seems perfectly eager to work with DL toward implementing one whenever that's feasible.

Neither of these airlines is perfect. I'm certain the truth, as always, lies somewhere in the middle. Has DL bullied KE? Quite possibly. Has KE been pigheaded about wanting a JV on terms completely favorable to it? Also quite possible. I'm actually opposed to JV's and wish they'd never gone through, but since that appears to be the world we're living in, I don't think they're going anywhere. As I noted above, of the two, it's not DL who's been unwilling to sign a JV with any other airline company. I certainly think DL is partially to blame for the way the KE/DL relationship has gone, but I think it's simplistic to assume that it's all DL's fault.

[Edited 2016-01-20 15:18:47]
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RE: US - Japan Reach Deal On HND Daytime Slots

Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:14 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 31):
But LAX, JFK, MSP, DTW, SEA and ATL - those six large hubs/O&D markets/gateways should, at a minimum, each be able to handle at least a daily 777 or A330 without one bit of beyond-TYO feed (and, of course, Delta will have at least some feed from alliance partners no matter what).

IF Delta moves everything to Haneda and kills beyond Japan flights this is what it would look like.

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