FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

*4O LAX-GDL FEB 0>0.4 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 MAY 0>1.0 JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0

8I MIA-AUA FEB 0.8>0.5

AA DCA-ACK SEP 0.4>0.2
AA DCA-MVY SEP 0.3>0.1
AA DFW-GDL JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 2>3
*AA LAX-ANC JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.7
*AA LAX-BDL JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
AA LAX-BNA JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
AA LAX-BOS SEP 5>4
AA LAX-FAT JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4
*AA LAX-JAC JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.7
AA LAX-LAS JUN 6>8 JUL 6>8 AUG 6>8 SEP 6>7
*AA LAX-MCI JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
AA LAX-MCO JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3
*AA LAX-MSP JUN 0>1.9 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2
*AA LAX-MSY JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
AA LAX-NRT SEP 1.0>0.8
*AA LAX-OMA JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
*AA LAX-PDX JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3
AA LAX-RDU JUN 1.0>2.0 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.7
AA LAX-RNO JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5
AA LAX-SAN AUG 8>6 SEP 9>6
AA LAX-SAT JUL 3>2
*AA LAX-SEA JUN 0>5 JUL 0>5 AUG 0>5 SEP 0>5
AA LAX-SFO JUN 12>13 JUL 12>13 AUG 11>13 SEP 9>13
AA LAX-SJC JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6
AA LAX-SLC JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 SEP 4>3
AA LAX-SMF JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 4>6
AA LAX-STL JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 2>3
AA LAX-TUS SEP 4>3
AA LAX-XNA SEP 1.0>2
AA LAX-YYZ JUN 1.0>2.0 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.7
AA ORD-LAX JUN 9>10 JUL 9>10 AUG 9>10 SEP 9>10
AA ORD-PEK SEP 1.0>0.8
AA ORD-PVG SEP 1.0>0.8
AA PHL-AUS SEP 0.4>0.2
AA PHL-PDX AUG 1.0>0.7
AA PHL-SLC AUG 1.0>0.7

AC FLL-YOW MAY 0.3>0.1 JUN 0.3>0.1 JUL 0.3>0.2 AUG 0.3>0.1 SEP 0.3>0.1

*AD MCO-CNF MAR 0.5>0 APR 0.6>0 MAY 0.6>0 JUN 0.6>0 JUL 0.6>0 AUG 0.5>0 SEP 0.6>0
AD MCO-VCP JUN 1.0>0.8

AM BOS-MEX MAY 0.7>0.9
AM LAX-MEX MAY 6>7
AM ONT-GDL MAY 0.6>0.5
AM ORD-MEX SEP 3>2

AS SEA-BOS SEP 2>3

AV JFK-MDE JUN 0.7>0.8 JUL 0.7>1.0 AUG 0.7>1.0 SEP 0.7>0.9

DE PDX-FRA AUG 0.4>0.5 SEP 0.3>0.4
DE SEA-FRA AUG 0.6>0.7 SEP 0.5>0.7

DL ATL-FCO SEP 1.2>2
DL ATL-MCO JUN 16>17 JUL 16>17 AUG 16>17
DL ATL-XNA JUN 6>7
DL BDL-MCO APR 0.2>0.1
DL BNA-MCO APR 0.2>0.0
DL CLE-MCO APR 0.2>0.0
DL CVG-EWR MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 1.8>3
DL CVG-MKE APR 1.2>0.8
DL DTW-BNA JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6
DL DTW-CVG APR 5>6
DL DTW-SCE JUN 1.9>3
DL DTW-SDF APR 6>5
DL JFK-ARN MAY 0.1>0 JUN 0.7>0.5
DL JFK-ATH SEP 1.2>1.5
DL JFK-CPH MAY 0>0.1
DL JFK-CVG JUN 1.0>2 JUL 1.0>1.8 AUG 1.0>2 SEP 1.0>2
DL JFK-IST MAY 1.0>0.6 SEP 1.0>0.2
DL JFK-MAD APR 1.0>0.9
DL JFK-SVO SEP 0.7>0.1
DL LAX-CUN SEP 1.4>1.6
DL LAX-MZT JUN 0.3>0.1 JUL 0.3>0.2 AUG 0.3>0.1
DL LAX-SAL SEP 0.7>0.6
DL LGA-ORD FEB 12>11
DL LGA-STL JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 5>6
DL MCI-MCO APR 0.2>0.0
DL MCO-PIT APR 0.2>0.0
DL MEM-MCO APR 0.2>0.0
DL MIA-LAX APR 1.4>1.0
DL MKE-MSP JUN 6>7 JUL 6>7 AUG 6>7 SEP 6>7
*DL PHL-LHR APR 1.0>0.6 MAY 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.6
DL SEA-ANC SEP 5>6
**DL SLC-MEM JUN 1.0>0 JUL 0.9>0

Surprised they are increasing...
DY JFK-FDF APR 0.4>0.6
DY JFK-PTP APR 0.4>0.6

G4 FLL-SAT APR 0.3>0.0 MAY 0.3>0.1

HA HNL-LNY SEP 0>3
HA HNL-MKK SEP 0>3
HA HNL-SYD SEP 1.2>1.0
HA ITO-OGG FEB 5>3 SEP 2>4
HA KOA-OGG SEP 3>5
HA LNY-MKK SEP 0>1.0
HA MKK-OGG FEB 1.0>1.9 SEP 0>1.0

HU BOS-PEK JUN 1.0>0.8
HU ORD-PEK MAY 1.0>0.7 JUN 1.0>0.6
HU SEA-PEK APR 1.0>0.9 MAY 1.0>0.9
HU SEA-PVG APR 0.6>0.4 MAY 0.6>0.4 JUN 0.6>0.4
HU SJC-PEK APR 0.7>0.6 MAY 0.7>0.5 JUN 0.7>0.6

JJ JFK-GIG APR 1.0>0.8 MAY 1.0>0.7 JUN 1.0>0.8

*K5 BUR-IPL FEB 1.8>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0 MAY 1.7>0 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.7>0 AUG 1.7>0 SEP 1.7>0
*K5 BUR-SAN FEB 1.8>0 MAR 3>0 APR 4>0 MAY 4>0 JUN 4>0 JUL 4>0 AUG 4>0 SEP 4>0
*K5 BUR-VIS FEB 1.8>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0 MAY 1.7>0 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.7>0 AUG 1.7>0 SEP 1.7>0
*K5 CLM-SEA MAR 5>0 APR 5>0 MAY 5>0 JUN 5>0 JUL 5>0 AUG 5>0 SEP 5>0
*K5 ELD-HOT FEB 1.0>1.8 MAR 1.0>1.7 APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7
*K5 ELD-IAH FEB 1.0>1.8 MAR 1.0>1.7 APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7
*K5 HOT-MEM FEB 1.0>1.8 MAR 1.0>1.7 APR 0>1.7 MAY 0>1.7 JUN 0>1.7 JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7
*K5 HRO-MCI FEB 0.9>0 MAR 0.9>0
*K5 HRO-MEM APR 0>3 MAY 0>3 JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3
*K5 IPL-SAN FEB 1.8>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0 MAY 1.7>0 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.7>0 AUG 1.7>0 SEP 1.7>0
*K5 MCI-SLN FEB 1.5>0 MAR 1.4>0
*K5 MWH-PDX MAR 0.9>0 APR 0.9>0 MAY 0.8>0 JUN 0.9>0 JUL 0.8>0 AUG 0.9>0 SEP 0.9>0
*K5 MWH-SEA MAR 3>0 APR 3>0 MAY 3>0 JUN 3>0 JUL 3>0 AUG 3>0 SEP 3>0
K5 PDT-PDX MAR 3>4 APR 3>4 MAY 3>4 JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 AUG 3>4 SEP 3>4
*K5 SMF-VIS FEB 1.8>0 MAR 1.7>0 APR 1.7>0 MAY 1.7>0 JUN 1.7>0 JUL 1.7>0 AUG 1.7>0 SEP 1.7>0

MW HNL-KOA JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0

TK JFK-IST FEB 4>3

TP EWR-LIS APR 1.0>1.1 MAY 1.0>1.1 JUN 1.0>1.7 JUL 1.0>1.7 AUG 1.0>1.7 SEP 1.0>1.7
TP EWR-OPO JUL 0.4>0.3 AUG 0.4>0.3 SEP 0.4>0.3

UA BOS-CLE MAY 4>3
UA DEN-ASE JUN 7>6
UA DEN-CID MAR 3>4
UA DEN-CPR JUN 5>4
UA DEN-DRO JUN 7>6
UA DEN-EGE JUN 1.6>1.0
UA DEN-FSD JUN 5>4
UA DEN-HDN JUN 1.8>1.0
UA DEN-LAS JUN 6>4
UA DEN-MKE JUN 3>4
UA DEN-MSY JUN 2>1.3
UA DEN-OGG JUL 0.2>1.0
UA DEN-OMA JUN 5>4
UA DEN-RNO JUN 3>2.0
UA DEN-SLC JUN 7>6
UA DEN-YEG MAR 1.9>1.1 JUN 1.7>1.0
UA DEN-YYZ JUN 3>1.9
UA EWR-AUS MAY 3>4
UA EWR-CLE MAY 6>5
UA EWR-DUB SEP 1.7>2.0
UA EWR-GRR MAY 3>1.8
UA EWR-MKE MAY 3>1.9
UA IAD-CUN JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 1.1>1.6
UA IAD-MEX JUN 1.0>1.5 JUL 1.0>1.7 AUG 1.0>1.7 SEP 1.0>1.7
UA IAD-YYZ JUN 3>4
UA IAH-FOE FEB 0.1>0.0
UA IAH-MEX JUN 8>7 JUL 8>7 AUG 8>7 SEP 8>7
UA IAH-PBI MAR 2>1.2
UA IAH-SJC MAY 1.7>0.8
UA IAH-SMF MAY 3>2
UA LAX-MCO JUN 1.7>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 1.5>1.0
UA LAX-PHX JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3
UA LAX-SAT MAY 1.1>1.9
UA ORD-ATW JUN 4>3
UA ORD-OGG SEP 0.1>0.0
UA ORD-SEA MAY 6>5
*UA SFO-ASE JUN 0>0.7 JUL 0>1.0
UA SFO-HNL JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6
UA SFO-LAX JUN 14>13 JUL 14>13 AUG 14>13
UA SFO-MFR MAY 5>4 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5
UA SFO-OGG AUG 4>5
UA SFO-RNO JUN 5>4
UA SFO-SBA MAY 7>6
UA SFO-SEA JUN 9>8
UA SFO-SLC JUN 6>5
UA SFO-TUS JUN 1.3>2 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>2
UA SFO-YEG JUN 1.7>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0
UA SFO-YYC JUN 3>2 JUL 3>2 AUG 3>2 SEP 3>2
UA SFO-YYJ JUN 1.7>1.0 JUL 2>1.0 AUG 2>1.0 SEP 2>1.0

*UP MCO-FPO JUL 0>0.3 AUG 0>0.3 SEP 0>0.3
UP MCO-NAS MAR 1.0>1.4 APR 0.9>1.7 MAY 0.8>1.5 JUN 1.4>1.7 AUG 3>2.0 SEP 3>2
UP MIA-NAS JUN 4>3 JUL 4>3 AUG 4>3 SEP 4>3

**WS BNA-YYZ JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7 SEP 0>0.7
WS DFW-YYC SEP 1.0>0.2
WS LAS-YWG JUL 0.6>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3
WS LAX-YVR JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 2>3
**WS LAX-YYZ JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
WS MCO-YYZ JUL 1.7>3 AUG 1.7>3 SEP 1.4>3
WS PSP-YEG MAY 0.3>0.0

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): AA PHL-AUS SEP 0.4>0.2

So the return of PHL-AUS is still only seasonal?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): DL PHL-LHR APR 1.0>0.6 MAY 1.0>0.7 SEP 1.0>0.6

We've seen anecdotal reports that this flight is not doing well. And the cut comes after AA cut's their morning departure.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 1):

Not just anecdotal. T100 shows its empty.

K5 has not started SEA-CLM/MWH or PDX-MWH yet. Appears those routes are not going to happen?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): AA LAX-BNA JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): AA LAX-LAS JUN 6>8 JUL 6>8 AUG 6>8 SEP 6>7

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): AA LAX-MCO JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): AA LAX-SFO JUN 12>13 JUL 12>13 AUG 11>13 SEP 9>13

Wow, I think that's the highest frequency these routes have ever seen.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *AA LAX-ANC JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.7 *AA LAX-BDL JUN 0>0.9 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 AA LAX-BNA JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 AA LAX-BOS SEP 5>4 AA LAX-FAT JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 *AA LAX-JAC JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>0.7 AA LAX-LAS JUN 6>8 JUL 6>8 AUG 6>8 SEP 6>7 *AA LAX-MCI JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 AA LAX-MCO JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 *AA LAX-MSP JUN 0>1.9 JUL 0>2 AUG 0>2 SEP 0>2 *AA LAX-MSY JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 AA LAX-NRT SEP 1.0>0.8 *AA LAX-OMA JUN 0>1.0 JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 *AA LAX-PDX JUN 0>3 JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3 AA LAX-RDU JUN 1.0>2.0 JUL 1.0>2 AUG 1.0>1.7 AA LAX-RNO JUN 4>5 JUL 4>5 AUG 4>5 SEP 4>5 AA LAX-SAN AUG 8>6 SEP 9>6 AA LAX-SAT JUL 3>2 *AA LAX-SEA JUN 0>5 JUL 0>5 AUG 0>5 SEP 0>5 AA LAX-SFO JUN 12>13 JUL 12>13 AUG 11>13 SEP 9>13 AA LAX-SJC JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AA LAX-SLC JUN 3>4 JUL 3>4 SEP 4>3 AA LAX-SMF JUN 5>6 JUL 5>6 AUG 5>6 SEP 4>6 AA LAX-STL JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 2>3 AA LAX-TUS SEP 4>3 AA LAX-XNA SEP 1.0>2 AA LAX-

Quoting realsim (Reply 4): Wow, I think that's the highest frequency these routes have ever seen.

  

Well now we know where some of the additional frequency being added this summer - above and beyond the new routes announced last week - are coming from.

Adding all these added frequencies, and considering that much of the new flying announced last week will be mainline, and that by the summer the vast majority if not all Eagle flying at LAX will be on 2-class RJs, and not to mention SYD which just started and AKL and possibly HKG starting by the end of the year, it will be very interesting to see where AA’s enplanements and market share at LAX stand when 2016 is over.

As has been discussed before, it's now quite clear that AA management - both before and after the merger - said what they meant and meant what they said about LAX. AA is clearly playing to win - big time - in this market. Wow.

[Edited 2016-01-24 06:19:12]

Quoting enilria (Reply 2): Not just anecdotal. T100 shows its empty.

How do AA/BA fair on the route. LHR is by far PHL's largest TA gateway and the only capacity increase since the AA/US merger has been:

AA morning flight - to be cancelled in April
DL 752 flight - moving to 3-4 weekly in April

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 6):

LHR from PHL has done very well since AA merger.

The AM flight is being moved to JFK where local demand can carry the flight. Also, the PHL AM flight was on a PMUS 757. Not a good ride for Transatlantic service.

Where is AA getting the aircraft for this massive LA expansion? I know they are constantly receiving more aircraft but I thought they were replacing old aircraft with those.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): **WS BNA-YYZ JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7 SEP 0>0.7 WS DFW-YYC SEP 1.0>0.2 WS LAS-YWG JUL 0.6>0.3 AUG 0.5>0.3 WS LAX-YVR JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 SEP 2>3 **WS LAX-YYZ JUL 0>1.0 AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0 WS MCO-YYZ JUL 1.7>3 AUG 1.7>3 SEP 1.4>3 WS PSP-YEG MAY 0.3>0.0

Well, WS is clearly shifting capacity away from recession stricken Alberta, and transferring it to YYZ.

Quoting realsim (Reply 4): UA IAH-FOE FEB 0.1>0.0

United has never flown to Topeka from IAH (that I recall).

[Edited 2016-01-24 06:57:22]

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): DL ATL-XNA JUN 6>7

I assume the uptick in flights for WM shareholders is weighting the average up to 7.

Quoting avi8 (Reply 8): Where is AA getting the aircraft for this massive LA expansion? I know they are constantly receiving more aircraft but I thought they were replacing old aircraft with those.

Both are true - AA is adding many new aircraft, and replacing many old aircraft - but the sheer volume of both deliveries and existing aircraft in the fleet means that AA has substantial flexibility to increase or decrease capacity in response to fuel costs, strategic objectives (LAX emphasis), etc.

It also appears, in looking at these new frequencies, that in increasing frequency, some markets - like BNA and YYZ - are also seeing gauge reduced from 737s to A319s. So AA is clearly going to have plenty of A319s flowing through LAX with which to schedule this flying.

Finally, as mentioned previously, it's also clear that AA is moving to at least loose peaks at LAX with this new schedule. AA is tightening a bank of departures around 0930-1000, for example, by shifting/adding departures on routes like RDU, STL, MSP and BNA into it to meet the inbound Australia arrival(s), and another bank around 1800-1830 on routes like STL, BNA, etc. to meet the inbound Asia arrival(s). Interesting schedule shifting going on in a lot of markets - think we're beginning to see the outlines of AA plans to run so many flights out of its present gate space.

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 9): Well, WS is clearly shifting capacity away from recession stricken Alberta, and transferring it to YYZ.

According to IAH numbers YYC-IAH has been doing fairly well (load wise). Of course that gives no indication of yields. Those could be snowbird numbers.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): AA LAX-NRT SEP 1.0>0.8

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): AA ORD-PEK SEP 1.0>0.8 AA ORD-PVG SEP 1.0>0.8

Can't wait for LAXHND!

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 6): Quoting enilria (Reply 2): Not just anecdotal. T100 shows its empty. How do AA/BA fair on the route.

Quoting B757capt (Reply 7): Quoting usairways85 (Reply 6): LHR from PHL has done very well since AA merger.

AA/BA are like 30 points ahead of DL.

Quoting avi8 (Reply 8): Where is AA getting the aircraft for this massive LA expansion?

Quoting commavia (Reply 12): or decrease capacity

I asked the same question. It's not that they can't shift capacity around in any scenario, the question is what is being cut to find all this capacity? Wall Street won't let this be a net increase with their stand on capacity. Something will be cut.

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 9): Well, WS is clearly shifting capacity away from recession stricken Alberta, and transferring it to YYZ.

Oil

Quoting tbboko802 (Reply 10): Quoting realsim (Reply 4): UA IAH-FOE FEB 0.1>0.0 United has never flown to Topeka from IAH (that I recall).

Probably an aborted basketball charter.

Quoting enilria (Reply 15): It's not that they can't shift capacity around in any scenario, the question is what is being cut to find all this capacity?

Well again, it's likely that this is being funded both through a mix of capacity reductions elsewhere plus some net, new capacity - after all, I believe the most recent guidance from AA was that it's domestic capacity would be up slightly YoY. We've seen capacity reductions in many other markets over the last few weeks - it's been well commented on here.

Again - AA has made very straightforward that winning at LAX is a strategic priority, and the competitive environment there clearly necessitates adding capacity and network breadth. Parker has clearly said as much: "Right now it’s a race between us and Delta to be the biggest at LAX, but we feel good about our chances of winning that race ... you'll see continued growth out of LAX because it’s a huge market for American going forward." I think that's what we're seeing.

Quoting enilria (Reply 15): Wall Street won't let this be a net increase with their stand on capacity. Something will be cut.

We'll see. If Parker and Kirby can compellingly demonstrate that the strategic development of LAX is a worthwhile investment for shareholders, and perhaps more pressingly if they can continue to post margins like they've been posting, I doubt "Wall Street" is going to mind all that much. Let's see what the earnings release and call on Friday reveal - both about AA's performance, and Wall Street's perception thereof.

[Edited 2016-01-24 07:48:24]

Quoting enilria (Reply 15): AA/BA are like 30 points ahead of DL.

How much truth is there to the clause in DL's use of AA/BA slots that if DL flies PHL-LHR continuously for 3-4 years, DL will gain ownership of the slots to use to any city they want (obviously not PHL)?

Quoting commavia (Reply 16): a mix of capacity reductions elsewhere

But where is the question.

Quoting commavia (Reply 16): We've seen capacity reductions in many other markets over the last few weeks - it's been well commented on here.

They are up nearly 5% in domestic ASMs for June and July as of this change. I doubt that sticks.

These are the largest domestic gainers in absolute ASM increase for Summer, but I'm showing the % increase for reference.
#1 LAX +14%
#2 ORD +6%
#3 JFK +15% (that's surprising)
#4 CLT +3%
#5 DFW +2%

Right now The Biggest Loser (TM) is:
#1 PHL -2%
#2 PHX -1%
#3 HNL -3%
#4 RNO -11%
#5 BWI -5%

Quoting enilria (Reply 15): I asked the same question. It's not that they can't shift capacity around in any scenario, the question is what is being cut to find all this capacity? Wall Street won't let this be a net increase with their stand on capacity. Something will be cut.

Even for a low-oil market share grab?

I have to think PHX is involved. The overreaching purpose for a PHX hub is to flow passengers between Southern California and the rest of the country. With new routes now overflying/bypassing PHX, that's less overall traffic transiting the hub.

Quoting enilria (Reply 18): But where is the question.

And I think you answered that question: PHL, PHX, etc.

Quoting enilria (Reply 18): They are up nearly 5% in domestic ASMs for June and July as of this change. I doubt that sticks. These are the largest domestic gainers in absolute ASM increase for Summer, but I'm showing the % increase for reference. #1 LAX +14% #2 ORD +6% #3 JFK +15% (that's surprising) #4 CLT +3% #5 DFW +2%

Personally, I think the more representative way of assessing these capacity shifts among markets is to look at seats and not ASMs, because when comparing an airline's presence at an airport, a seat is a seat regardless of how far it's flying. Not saying ASMs are not an important metric, nor that they don't provide insight into other, different, aspects of airline comparisons. But when look at airports, seats seems like the more appropriate metric to me - personally.

I agree with you that - at least based on the company's own guidance - AA is unlikely to ultimately have domestic capacity up net 5% YoY. That being said, more broadly, perhaps what we're seeing here - at least to some extent - is AA essentially taking a page out of Southwest's playbook circa 2006-2010, using its structurally lower cost position (due to post-bankruptcy labor contracts and, ironically/poetically, no fuel hedges) to "buy market share" from the rest of the industry.

Quoting enilria (Reply 18): #3 JFK +15% (that's surprising)

With respect to JFK, I suspect that jump is at least partly a reflection of some of the additional transcon flying (second daily SAN/SEA, third daily LAS).

[Edited 2016-01-24 08:57:54]

Quoting enilria (Reply 15):

Quoting commavia (Reply 16):

Quoting enilria (Reply 18):

Quoting commavia (Reply 20):

I think you are seeing increased utilization from AA. Block times are lower then average and increased trips are occurring. I would imagine that counts for 2-3% of the 5% total. Then look at the cuts that happened around fall of 2015 in BOS/LGA/PIT. That can account for the other 2% and shows where the A319s are coming from.

Big week for Nashville!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): AA LAX-BNA JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3

As previously noted, AA has never run 3x service on this route.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): **WS BNA-YYZ JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7 SEP 0>0.7

This is a real surprise! I've seen nothing mentioned in local media here. Not even on BNA's FB page.


Thanks, as always, enilria, for the weekly update, including the AA ASM analysis. Interesting stuff!

Have the OO -700s been loaded yet for LAX?

And I'm surprised by the big reduction in LAX-SAN frequency unless YOY it's still adjusting for the pull down of the 50 seaters

Lastly, is AA all E175 on LAX-SFO or is there some mainline still in there?

Quoting ericm2031 (Reply 23): Have the OO -700s been loaded yet for LAX?

Yes - they'll be showing up on a variety of routes this summer out of LAX, including (as of now) ELP, EUG, FAT, JAC, RDM, RNO and SAN.

Quoting ericm2031 (Reply 23): And I'm surprised by the big reduction in LAX-SAN frequency unless YOY it's still adjusting for the pull down of the 50 seaters

Net-net, AA capacity is actually likely still up in the market over a couple of years ago when it was more than 8-10 flights/day range but all were 50-seat RJs. Obviously it's no comparison to back 15-20 years ago when AA and United each had 15-20 flights/day, all on 30-34-seat props (SAAB 340s and EMB120s, respectively). But today there's new competition in the market (Delta), plus SAN air service has grown so much that they're just less need for that much connectivity over LAX (and obviously these SAN-LAX flights cater mostly to connections).

Quoting ericm2031 (Reply 23): Lastly, is AA all E175 on LAX-SFO or is there some mainline still in there?

No, still plenty of mainline. Of the 13 flights/day, 5 are mainline (mix of 737, A319 and A321) and the rest are Eagle/Compass EMB175s. To my knowledge, 13/day is - by a considerable margin - the most frequency AA has ever had in this market, at least going all the way back to right after Air Cal. Even in the peak of the late 1990s/early 2000s, after the Reno merger, I don't believe AA ever had more than 8-9 flights/day on this route (albeit, at that time, all mainline MD80/737).

Quoting thenoflyzone (Reply 9): Well, WS is clearly shifting capacity away from recession stricken Alberta, and transferring it to YYZ.

That was my thought as well. Very good use of resources.

Is this Westjet's third or fourth attempt at YYZ-LAX? Hopefully, it works better for them this time. I see AC is up to 7 flights a day this summer on YYZ-LAX, including B787 and B767 flights.

Quoting UALFAson (Reply 22): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): AA LAX-BNA JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 As previously noted, AA has never run 3x service on this route.

I'm not 100% positive, but I think AA did fly LAX-BNA 3x during the late 1980s/early 1990s days of the BNA hub. But even if so, it's been a long time.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 19): Even for a low-oil market share grab?

I think it makes sense, but I doubt Wall Street does.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 19): I have to think PHX is involved.

Something negative is coming in Fall to balance the Summer expansion. PHX is a likely source.

Quoting commavia (Reply 20): Quoting enilria (Reply 18): But where is the question. And I think you answered that question: PHL, PHX, etc.

Yes, BUT those are small cuts and huge increases.

Quoting commavia (Reply 20): Personally, I think the more representative way of assessing these capacity shifts among markets is to look at seats and not ASMs

I kind of agree, but we are talking about Wall Street reaction which forces ASM as the metric.

Quoting commavia (Reply 20): I agree with you that - at least based on the company's own guidance - AA is unlikely to ultimately have domestic capacity up net 5% YoY.

Yup

Quoting B757capt (Reply 21): I think you are seeing increased utilization from AA.

Sure, but it is more capacity regardless.

Quoting UALFAson (Reply 22): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): AA LAX-BNA JUN 2>3 JUL 2>3 AUG 2>3 As previously noted, AA has never run 3x service on this route.

The service level in LAX-BNA is now kind of crazy.

Quoting UALFAson (Reply 22): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): **WS BNA-YYZ JUL 0>0.7 AUG 0>0.7 SEP 0>0.7 This is a real surprise! I've seen nothing mentioned in local media here. Not even on BNA's FB page. Thanks, as always, enilria, for the weekly update, including the AA ASM analysis. Interesting stuff!

Thanks and congrats to BNA. AC still flies BNA as well?

Quoting enilria (Reply 27): Thanks and congrats to BNA. AC still flies BNA as well?

Yes, Air Canada Express operated by Air Georgian. CL-65

Twice a day. I don't see WS posted anywhere either, probably an Encore Q400?

Quoting enilria (Reply 27): Something negative is coming in Fall to balance the Summer expansion. PHX is a likely source./quote] [quote=enilria,reply=27]Yes, BUT those are small cuts and huge increases.

Yeah - let's see what happens. We're still only three weeks into 2016.

Quoting enilria (Reply 27): I kind of agree, but we are talking about Wall Street reaction which forces ASM as the metric.

"Wall Street" isn't monolithic. I think there are at least some analysts who understand the relative merits of one metric over another.

Quoting commavia (Reply 24): No, still plenty of mainline. Of the 13 flights/day, 5 are mainline (mix of 737, A319 and A321) and the rest are Eagle/Compass EMB175s. To my knowledge, 13/day is - by a considerable margin - the most frequency AA has ever had in this market, at least going all the way back to right after Air Cal. Even in the peak of the late 1990s/early 2000s, after the Reno merger, I don't believe AA ever had more than 8-9 flights/day on this route (albeit, at that time, all mainline MD80/737).

Thanks for all the info!

And that's why I was asking about mainline on that route. They're approaching DL levels on that route of being nearly hourly so I'm surprised they're still running some mainline on there.

With DL ending their shuttle product on the route, maybe AA could eventually try it out.

Quoting commavia (Reply 20): And I think you answered that question: PHL, PHX, etc.

Quoting commavia (Reply 20): Personally, I think the more representative way of assessing these capacity shifts among markets is to look at seats and not ASMs, because when comparing an airline's presence at an airport, a seat is a seat regardless of how far it's flying. Not saying ASMs are not an important metric, nor that they don't provide insight into other, different, aspects of airline comparisons. But when look at airports, seats seems like the more appropriate metric to me - personally.

And I'd make an assumption that many of PHL's ASM cuts are on just a few routes (PHL-TLV, PHL-EDI, 1x PHL-LHR, and about 10 flights PHL-LGA/DCA).

One other notable LAX-related schedule change I saw: in addition to increasing LAX-ORD up to 10/day this summer, capacity should also be up as all but 2 of those flights will be A321s, with 1 being a 737 and - interestingly - one on a 787. Based on the schedule, it appears ORD is how they'll bridge the AKL 787 to/from LAX.

Quoting ericm2031 (Reply 30): They're approaching DL levels on that route of being nearly hourly so I'm surprised they're still running some mainline on there.

I believe Delta will be all-mainline (717s) on LAX-SFO this summer.

Quoting ericm2031 (Reply 30): With DL ending their shuttle product on the route

Is Delta discontinuing the "Shuttle" branding on LAX-SFO? Wasn't aware of that. It's still shown on their website.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 28): Yes, Air Canada Express operated by Air Georgian. CL-65 Twice a day. I don't see WS posted anywhere either, probably an Encore Q400?

Yes, Q400. BTW, I see a few sporadic A319 ops on AC.

Quoting commavia (Reply 29): Quoting enilria (Reply 27): I kind of agree, but we are talking about Wall Street reaction which forces ASM as the metric. "Wall Street" isn't monolithic. I think there are at least some analysts who understand the relative merits of one metric over another.

Perhaps, but the analysts only ask ASM questions on the quarterly calls.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 31): And I'd make an assumption that many of PHL's ASM cuts are on just a few routes (PHL-TLV, PHL-EDI, 1x PHL-LHR, and about 10 flights PHL-LGA/DCA).

The numbers quoted above are domestic and PHL-LGA/DCA have almost no impact on ASMs because they are so short.

Quoting B757capt (Reply 7): LHR from PHL has done very well since AA merger.

You've got a low bar for "very well". This is one of the emptiest flights across the Atlantic.

PHL-LHR T100 Load Factors:
Aug14…86.8
Sep14…67.6
Oct14…65.3
Nov14…58.8
Dec14…70.3
Jan15….60.4
Feb15…48.6
Mar15…59.7
Apr15…54.8
May15..54.7
Jun15…69.8
Jul15….74.9

Avg....64.4

Quoting enilria (Reply 2): Not just anecdotal. T100 shows its empty.

  

Quoting tbboko802 (Reply 13): According to IAH numbers YYC-IAH has been doing fairly well

Do you have them on hand? I had heard the opposite, was hearing mid 60's loads floated.

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 34): You've got a low bar for "very well". This is one of the emptiest flights across the Atlantic. PHL-LHR T100 Load Factors: Aug14…86.8 Sep14…67.6 Oct14…65.3 Nov14…58.8 Dec14…70.3 Jan15….60.4 Feb15…48.6 Mar15…59.7 Apr15…54.8 May15..54.7 Jun15…69.8 Jul15….74.9 Avg....64.4

To be fair, if you combine the JV players together it is much better.

PHL-LHR T100 Load Factors:
Aug14…86
Sep14…77
Oct14…75
Nov14…69
Dec14…75
Jan15….69
Feb15…57
Mar15…67
Apr15…65
May15...68
Jun15…79
Jul15….80

Here are DL's LFs:
Apr15 19% - 46 points behind AA/BA/US
May15 36% - 31 points behind
Jun15 48% - 31 points behind
Jul15 51% - 29 points behind

Now those are really really bad. Hard to imagine running half full in the Summer on Transatlantic.

Thanks as always, enilria, for posting this stuff..

Quoting Rdh3e (Reply 34): PHL-LHR T100 Load Factors: Aug14…86.8 Sep14…67.6 Oct14…65.3 Nov14…58.8 Dec14…70.3 Jan15….60.4 Feb15…48.6 Mar15…59.7 Apr15…54.8 May15..54.7 Jun15…69.8 Jul15….74.9 Avg....64.4

What strikes me especially odd about this is that PHL is a massive hub with plenty of potential feed to put butts into those empty LHR seats if the price was low enough. Were (for example) RDU-LHR to be soft, well RDU isn't well-designed to capture a lot of connections, and I doubt they'd underprice something like DFW-RDU-LHR below DFW-LHR nonstop. But PHL has countless places to pick up some cheap-yield connections. Perhaps they're trying to hold the line on yield fromm that Philly flight to not dilute their overall London yields.

Quoting enilria (Reply 33): The numbers quoted above are domestic and PHL-LGA/DCA have almost no impact on ASMs because they are so short.

Ah gotcha, my bad.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 36): What strikes me especially odd about this is that PHL is a massive hub with plenty of potential feed to put butts into those empty LHR seats if the price was low enough.

PHL is anomaly that I've given up on figuring out. I'm a PHL resident, but someone who frequently gets up to EWR because of a much wider selection of nonstop destinations and frequencies.

HU SJC-PEK APR 0.7>0.6 MAY 0.7>0.5 JUN 0.7>0.6

Looks like a slight reduction. Any idea how this translates into flights per week?

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 37): PHL is anomaly that I've given up on figuring out. I'm a PHL resident, but someone who frequently gets up to EWR because of a much wider selection of nonstop destinations and frequencies.

I blame the lack of air service on PHL airport management. Poor marketing and strategy....PHL is much better connecting complex versus the NYC airports. Hopefully the new airport management will realize this as BOS, BWI and NYC gain more service.

Thanks Enilria!

Quoting commavia (Reply 32): Quoting ericm2031 (Reply 30): With DL ending their shuttle product on the route Is Delta discontinuing the "Shuttle" branding on LAX-SFO? Wasn't aware of that. It's still shown on their website.

I haven't seen that either. My understanding is the product has worked well, so unless that is false I doubt they'd discontinue it.

Quoting enilria (Reply 35): Here are DL's LFs: Apr15 19% - 46 points behind AA/BA/US May15 36% - 31 points behind Jun15 48% - 31 points behind Jul15 51% - 29 points behind

Yikes.

Quoting AirFiero (Reply 38): HU SJC-PEK APR 0.7>0.6 MAY 0.7>0.5 JUN 0.7>0.6 Looks like a slight reduction. Any idea how this translates into flights per week?

Should go from 5x/week to 4x.

Quoting AirFiero (Reply 38): HU SJC-PEK APR 0.7>0.6 MAY 0.7>0.5 JUN 0.7>0.6 Looks like a slight reduction. Any idea how this translates into flights per week?

Surprisngly, it looks like HU is cutting all US destination to PEK in the summer, which surprises me. Is PEK underperforming or are they getting short on aircraft?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): Surprised they are increasing... DY JFK-FDF APR 0.4>0.6 DY JFK-PTP APR 0.4>0.6

What days?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): **DL SLC-MEM JUN 1.0>0 JUL 0.9>0

Seriously hope this is a mistake. Is not a loss for SLC at all, but for MEM you cant even offer a summer peak flight to the Western hub? I would think all those years of MEM being a hub they could at least offer this. Woudnt be surprisd if this gets reversed in a few weeks.

Quoting commavia (Reply 32): Is Delta discontinuing the "Shuttle" branding on LAX-SFO? Wasn't aware of that. It's still shown on their website

My mistake. I remember there being a mixup between the switch from shuttle to 717's when someone on wiki posted that it was ending, but that's what you get for trusting Wikipedia.

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 36): Thanks as always, enilria, for posting this stuff..

 

Quoting knope2001 (Reply 36): What strikes me especially odd about this is that PHL is a massive hub with plenty of potential feed to put butts into those empty LHR seats if the price was low enough.

Agreed. Perhaps they are desperate to keep DL out of the market in Winter so they run extra flights?

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 40): Thanks Enilria!

 

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 40): Yikes.

Yeah, 19 is a LF you don't see much...

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 43): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): **DL SLC-MEM JUN 1.0>0 JUL 0.9>0 Seriously hope this is a mistake

Doubt it

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 43): MEM you cant even offer a summer peak flight to the Western hub?

Amazing BNA-LAX has almost hourly service and MEM is clinging to any Western service...

Quoting enilria (Reply 45): Agreed. Perhaps they are desperate to keep DL out of the market in Winter so they run extra flights?

Essentially the only change for AA/US/BA on PHL-LHR post merger is the addition of the AA morning flight. For S16 AA/BA capacity will only be up very slightly (On the BA side) from before the merger when US operated a 333 and BA operated a 772/788.

This summer BA plans a very fluid schedule with many combinations for their 2 flights(772/788; 772/772; 789/788; 772/789, etc.).

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 43): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): **DL SLC-MEM JUN 1.0>0 JUL 0.9>0 Seriously hope this is a mistake. Is not a loss for SLC at all, but for MEM you cant even offer a summer peak flight to the Western hub? I would think all those years of MEM being a hub they could at least offer this. Woudnt be surprisd if this gets reversed in a few weeks.

This has come and gone before, right?

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 46): This summer BA plans a very fluid schedule with many combinations for their 2 flights(772/788; 772/772; 789/788; 772/789, etc.).

Those kind of swaps are much easier to do when there are plenty of empty seats to move people around with. I guess if you see that kind of craziness it is indication of sub-par loads.

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 47): Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 43): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): **DL SLC-MEM JUN 1.0>0 JUL 0.9>0 Seriously hope this is a mistake. Is not a loss for SLC at all, but for MEM you cant even offer a summer peak flight to the Western hub? I would think all those years of MEM being a hub they could at least offer this. Woudnt be surprisd if this gets reversed in a few weeks. This has come and gone before, right?

My first thought is that it has been continuously operating in the Summer, but I could be wrong. It has definitely been seasonal only at most for a while.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): **DL SLC-MEM JUN 1.0>0 JUL 0.9>0

Doesn't give me much hope for SLC-XNA being restarted. Ugh.