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LPSHobby
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It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:10 am

JJ is canceling their CNF-MIA flights , and AD is canceling the CNF-MCO filghts, I was thinking, both E-190 and Superjet have 4400km range, they could perform a CNF-MIA flight with a stop for refueling, my question is, is that economically and competitively viable a , for example, CNF-MIA flight with a 90 seater plane ( in this with 2 classes)?

Please, your toughts, thanks.
 
MAH4546
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:22 am

No it is not economically feasible. These are both very large local markets with cheap fares. CNFMIA/CNFMCO need big planes with lots of seats to absorb low fares.

CNF still has Miami flights with American, MCOCNF launched at the worst possible time, and TAM cancelling MIACNF is simply TAM focusing more on BSB, as the capacity is moving 1:1 to MIABSB, larger market, shorter stage length, easier to absorb the hit in U.S.-Brazil yields.
a.
 
LPSHobby
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:35 am

ok, thanks for answer, and what about a 2-class 738/A321 ?
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:43 am

Possible, yes. Sensible, no.

I mean 4-6 seat private jets can do longhaul, but the cost-per-seat is through the roof.
Same concept.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Andy33
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:45 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 3):
Possible, yes. Sensible, no.

And of course, BA do transatlantic flights with 32 seat A318s, but they're all Business Class.
 
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GCT64
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Wed Jan 27, 2016 10:05 am

Odyssey Airlines are supposed to be delivering this business model http://www.flyody.com/
Let's see if they actually start up and are successful.
Flown in: A20N,A21N,A30B,A306,A310,A319,A320,A321,A332,A333,A343,A346,A359,A388,BA11,BU31,(..56 more types..),VC10,WESX
 
LPSHobby
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Wed Jan 27, 2016 11:16 am

and what about a 2-class 738/A321 ?
 
leo467
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Wed Jan 27, 2016 12:01 pm

LX/LH used to fly ZRH/DUS - EWR with a 738 Privatair "business jet". All J class, 56 pax similar stage length. Or BA as mentioned above LCY - JFK with 32 seats.
The next best thing you see with planes that size (738/320) are e.g., US Transcons or similar in the 6.30-7h range most often with significantly more seats e.g., 150-180 or various 757 missions with pax numbers also in the 150-200's. Both significantly higher than your 90.

With 90 pax you are somehow stuck in the middle of these two configurations/models. An Airbus 321LR will certainly be capable of flying this mission (as is a 757 today) - however, a small plane for long haul works only in a market where people are willing to consistently pay a significant permium and fill your plane at these rates. Loosing 1h for a cheaper 1 stop alternative simly does not matter that much on a 8h stage. Therefore, you are almost by default in a J only or very J heavy configuration and in a special situation. The reason e.g., in BA's case are the significant time/convenience savings you have in London (LCY) esp. if you start at the financial centre and want to travel to NYC and you have a more convenient immigration to the US. But there are not many city/airport pairs where this really works and even between NYC an LON several attempts of J only flights failed...
 
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ua900
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Thu Jan 28, 2016 1:05 am

Quoting LPSHobby (Thread starter):
JJ is canceling their CNF-MIA flights , and AD is canceling the CNF-MCO filghts, I was thinking, both E-190 and Superjet have 4400km range, they could perform a CNF-MIA flight with a stop for refueling, my question is, is that economically and competitively viable a , for example, CNF-MIA flight with a 90 seater plane ( in this with 2 classes)?

Please, your toughts, thanks.

It is in an all C config, e.g. a 737 with 90ish seats or a E90 with around 40 seats.

Quoting LPSHobby (Reply 2):
what about a 2-class 738/A321 ?

No.

Quoting andy33 (Reply 4):
And of course, BA do transatlantic flights with 32 seat A318s, but they're all Business Class.

Ditto for PrivatAir, lots of unconventional long haul all C routes out there.

Quoting leo467 (Reply 7):
LX/LH used to fly ZRH/DUS - EWR with a 738 Privatair "business jet". All J class, 56 pax similar stage length.

Exactly. These birds have been everywhere save perhaps for Antarctica.
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MAH4546
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:38 am

Quoting LPSHobby (Reply 6):

and what about a 2-class 738/A321 ?

It's a huge market. It needs a large plane with a lot of seats to absorb the low fares, even if the plane has the hypothetical range.
a.
 
747400sp
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Thu Jan 28, 2016 6:54 am

I think the BBD CSeries with an all business class layout, would be great for such an operation.
 
LPSHobby
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:46 am

Quoting 747400sp (Reply 10):
It's a huge market. It needs a large plane with a lot of seats to absorb the low fares, even if the plane has the hypothetical range.

but Gol is operating GRU-MIA with a stop for refueling in the Caribe with a 737-800, so I think this is possible
 
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PW100
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Thu Jan 28, 2016 4:29 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 3):
I mean 4-6 seat private jets can do longhaul, but the cost-per-seat is through the roof.
Same concept.

Not sure if I see the same concept. I mean using your 4-6 seat private jet on a 1000 km route, the seat cost would still go through the roof. While the cost of an E190 or Superjet on that same route is very reasonable, to the point that is common practice.
It doesn't explain why the cost of using an E190 or Superjet on a 4000+ km route will be going through the roof?
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winGl3t
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Thu Jan 28, 2016 4:34 pm

Quoting LPSHobby (Reply 11):
but Gol is operating GRU-MIA with a stop for refueling in the Caribe with a 737-800, so I think this is possible


It is no surprise that GOL's US flights will be suspended next month.
The route worked when Brazilians were paying expensive airfares to buy even toilet paper in Florida. Nowadays you can buy Business class for the price of an Economy class ticket on 2013.

To make low yield route work you need to have high volume and low CASM. That's how ME3 and TK can make their flights to India, BKK, KUL, CGK work, for instance.
 
Viscount724
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Fri Jan 29, 2016 5:51 am

Quoting ua900 (Reply 8):
Quoting andy33 (Reply 4):
And of course, BA do transatlantic flights with 32 seat A318s, but they're all Business Class.

Ditto for PrivatAir, lots of unconventional long haul all C routes out there.

Only one current PrivatAir all-J route, CPH-EWR for SK (it replaced the cancelled SVG-IAH service). But the CPH-EWR service ends in March and the 737-700/BBJ will then be reconfigured to a 2-class J/Y cabin and moved to the CPH-BOS route.

Quoting ua900 (Reply 8):
Quoting leo467 (Reply 7):
LX/LH used to fly ZRH/DUS - EWR with a 738 Privatair "business jet". All J class, 56 pax similar stage length.

Exactly. These birds have been everywhere save perhaps for Antarctica.

But except for the single 737-700/BBJ previously operated for KL AMS-IAH and then for SK as mentioned above, all the other current PrivatAir services operated for other carriers have been 2-class J/Y for quite a while.
 
LPSHobby
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Fri Jan 29, 2016 2:38 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 14):
It is no surprise that GOL's US flights will be suspended next month.

I didn´t know that
 
Viscount724
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:45 am

Quoting LPSHobby (Reply 15):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 14):
It is no surprise that GOL's US flights will be suspended next month.

That's not my quote.
 
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PatrickZ80
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Sat Jan 30, 2016 8:07 pm

Quoting LPSHobby (Reply 6):
and what about a 2-class 738/A321 ?

Technically yes, economically no. Too few seats would make the costs per seat too high, it would be too expensive. People just don't pay that amount of money for a flight. Making a transfer somewhere would be much cheaper.

The BBJ's are a story on their own. They're all business class and tickets are being sold at a very high price, it's very expensive to fly them. They can only work on the very few routes that see that much passengers that are willing to pay that much for a ticket. CNF is not an airport that sees much of such passengers.
 
LPSHobby
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:08 am

Quoting PatrickZ80 (Reply 17):
Technically yes, economically no. Too few seats would make the costs per seat too high, it would be too expensive. People just don't pay that amount of money for a flight. Making a transfer somewhere would be much cheaper.

but so how is Copa very succesfull linking Brazil/South America with Nort America, Caribe and Central America, through their hub in PTY? they use only 738, 73G and E-190
 
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PatrickZ80
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 4:04 pm

That's because there's a difference between a hub and a refueling station. You don't fill a plane with passengers from CNF to MIA, but you do fill a plane with passengers from CNF to all north American destinations. That plane flies to PTY and there the passengers are being spread onto different planes flying to different north American destinations. The passengers on the planes to all those north American destinations are not only from CNF, but from all south American destinations.
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 4:16 pm

Here is the most serious and enlightening discussion of such a concept that you will find anywhere on the Internet:

http://www.lissys.demon.co.uk/samp3/
 
JHwk
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 4:47 pm

Found this in a quick search: http://www.oliverwyman.com/content/d...ic_Analysis_Screen_OW_Nov_2014.pdf

Around page 18 they do a breakdown of cost per available seat mile for various airlines, planes, and stage lengths. What it generally seems to show is that smaller planes flying longer routes have a 15-20% cost premium, although that is an indirect inference.

To make smaller planes work effectively, your first challenge is a marketing one-- is there sufficient demand for the route, and can you offer a product that will be cost competitive? Then come the operational concerns...
 
panais
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RE: It Would Be Possible A Long Haul With A 90 Seater?

Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:52 am

Quoting PatrickZ80 (Reply 17):
Technically yes, economically no. Too few seats would make the costs per seat too high, it would be too expensive. People just don't pay that amount of money for a flight. Making a transfer somewhere would be much cheaper.

Economically can also work as long as the cost is relevant.

A tourist travelling to a vacation destination might not bother with the inconvenience of hub transfers, long connection times, etc and spend say $200 more. In their mind they have other places to spend that money.
A business traveller, might have a better chance of explaining to their travel officer, that spending $200 more on a ticket saves them money on hotel stays, lounge access, lost productivity, etc.

I believe that the availability of the A319ceo with its large range can be an attractive alternative.

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