Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
chinmay17shetye
Topic Author
Posts: 72
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:24 pm

BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:27 am

An alarming study conducted by CAPA has suggested that the Mumbai Airport will have no slots and hence will saturate with no room for Airlines to grow in just 24 months.

The New Airport which had been planned for this very purpose is nowhere near completion. In fact, the work hasn't even started. The govt. estimates that the airport's first phase with a low capacity of 10 million will complete in 2019. Considering the delays, it is estimated that the deadline won't be met and the airport won't even start functioning before 2021.

Now, from 2018-2021, the question is what will be the fate of Mumbai City with its ever increasing air travellers. Mumbai City is supposed to be the richest city in the Indian subcontinent. The news is a big threat to the city and will surely destroy its economic development.

Mumbai Airport handled approx. 28 million passengers in the last 6 months. Now, as the Airport reaches its saturation, the existing airport must be developed to meet the demand as the construction of the Navi Mumbai Airport by 2018 is next to impossible.

Considering a parallel runway to the existing Runway 27 by relocating the Air India Hangars is an option, but is very difficult as the Mumbai Airport is also space starved. There would be no area to relocate the Air India Hangars unless the slums around the Airport are cleared. Only if the govt. clears the slums, Mumbai Airport can easily manage for 10 years.

Also, the plan to connect the smaller Juhu Airport to the existing airport for handling small planes, Business Jets, Props and even narrow bodies can help. But again, environmentalists need to be convinced for the Juhu airport runway expansion.

Give your views on this topic and correct me if I am wrong in any of the above.
 
lutfi
Posts: 888
Joined: Wed Sep 27, 2000 6:33 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:38 am

Put the fares up, demand will drop.
 
[email protected]
Posts: 16616
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:29 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:49 am

Quoting lutfi (Reply 1):

Put the fares up, demand will drop.

Or, rather, just build the required infrastructure so India can develop and grow.
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
jmchevallier
Posts: 126
Joined: Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:17 am

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:34 pm

Quoting chinmay17shetye (Thread starter):
Considering a parallel runway to the existing Runway 27 by relocating the Air India Hangars is an option, but is very difficult as the Mumbai Airport is also space starved. There would be no area to relocate the Air India Hangars unless the slums around the Airport are cleared. Only if the govt. clears the slums, Mumbai Airport can easily manage for 10 years.

You are right, this is technically the best option, but the political cost will be huge !
Another option is to enhance the cross runway operations, LGA style. Be reminded that LGA can handle over 70 ATM/h. The infrastructure cost would be minimal, but the required jump in ATC skill would be great and take time.
 
A342
Posts: 4017
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:05 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:42 pm

Quoting chinmay17shetye (Thread starter):
The New Airport which had been planned for this very purpose is nowhere near completion. In fact, the work hasn't even started. The govt. estimates that the airport's first phase with a low capacity of 10 million will complete in 2019. Considering the delays, it is estimated that the deadline won't be met and the airport won't even start functioning before 2021.

In other words, it will still open ahead of BER...

Quoting chinmay17shetye (Thread starter):
Also, the plan to connect the smaller Juhu Airport to the existing airport for handling small planes, Business Jets, Props and even narrow bodies can help. But again, environmentalists need to be convinced for the Juhu airport runway expansion.

To me, the airports seem too close to allow simultaneous operations.
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1869
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:51 pm

Quoting chinmay17shetye (Thread starter):
The New Airport which had been planned for this very purpose is nowhere near completion. In fact, the work hasn't even started.

Quite an understatement there.
 
chinmay17shetye
Topic Author
Posts: 72
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:24 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Fri Jan 29, 2016 12:55 pm

Quoting lutfi (Reply 1):

Putting the fares up will help only upto a certain level. Finally, in the end the LCCs will gain by having low fares if fares are increased.

If the airport charges are increased, the premium airlines will simply increase the fares and the passengers will pay it as they have no other option to travel internationally. The LCCs will be hit if the airport charges are increased.

In addition, Mumbai is a very expensive airport for your flight. Increasing the charges will take it to the cost levels of LHR.

So, in short, increasing the fare is only a short term option.
 
chinmay17shetye
Topic Author
Posts: 72
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:24 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Fri Jan 29, 2016 12:56 pm

Quoting [email protected] (Reply 2):

Building it is not the problem. Building it fast is the problem.
 
chinmay17shetye
Topic Author
Posts: 72
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:24 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Fri Jan 29, 2016 12:59 pm

Quoting A342 (Reply 4):
Quoting A342 (Reply 4):

To me, the airports seem too close to allow simultaneous operations.

The theory has been checked and verified. Making the runway of Juhu airport parallel to Runway 27 of BOM will allow the operations with none of the rules broken.
 
RickNRoll
Posts: 1869
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:30 am

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:04 pm

No one has mentioned the A380 yet?
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Fri Jan 29, 2016 5:52 pm

Airlines will upsize. That will mitigate till the new airport gets built.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Fri Jan 29, 2016 7:17 pm

Quoting A342 (Reply 4):
In other words, it will still open ahead of BER...

First good chuckle of the day....thanks.
What the...?
 
chinmay17shetye
Topic Author
Posts: 72
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:24 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Fri Jan 29, 2016 7:21 pm

Quoting ytz (Reply 10):
Airlines will upsize.

What about the LCCs like Indigo and GoAir ?
Considering the full service airlines that have only 1-5 flights a day, it is easy for them to change to bigger planes. But the airlines based in Mumbai operating more than 5 flights can't do this because they already have their planes occupied on other routes.
 
chinmay17shetye
Topic Author
Posts: 72
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:24 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Fri Jan 29, 2016 7:24 pm

Quoting jmchevallier (Reply 3):
Another option is to enhance the cross runway operations, LGA style.

You have a valid point. But the cross runways of Mumbai are not perpendicular and the planes landing require a 5-8 mile separation depending on the plane type. Mumbai Airport even tried this out, but brutally failed because of the absence of the knowledge of cross runway operations.
 
ytz
Posts: 3529
Joined: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:31 am

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:41 pm

Quoting chinmay17shetye (Reply 12):
What about the LCCs like Indigo and GoAir ?

320 --> 321, 738 --> 739.

There's room to upsize. Even for the LCCs. It's not as efficient for them obviously. But there's no need to stop growing. There are certain markets for example where there's no need for more frequencies. For example, BOM-DEL, is there any airline other than Vistara that's lacking for frequency?

Indigo in particular could stand to upgauge in several markets ex-BOM. And you'll see them do that.
 
jmchevallier
Posts: 126
Joined: Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:17 am

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Fri Jan 29, 2016 11:08 pm

Quoting chinmay17shetye (Reply 13):
You have a valid point. But the cross runways of Mumbai are not perpendicular and the planes landing require a 5-8 mile separation depending on the plane type. Mumbai Airport even tried this out, but brutally failed because of the absence of the knowledge of cross runway operations

It is a matter of setting the right procédures for properly sequencing the landing aircraft (3.5NM at LGA) so that a departure is possible between 2 arrivals, the departing aircaft being released as soon as the landing aircraft cross the departure runway.
It requires a lot of training and discipline, but can be started with a larger separation between arrival (5NM or about 2mn).
To have 2 active runways on such a small airport would also generate severe taxiing constraints.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20278
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:01 am

Quoting chinmay17shetye (Thread starter):
An alarming study conducted by CAPA has suggested that the Mumbai Airport will have no slots and hence will saturate with no room for Airlines to grow in just 24 months.

BOM is already saturated.

Quoting lutfi (Reply 1):
Put the fares up, demand will drop.

Because jobs went elsewhere.

There needs to be more runways. How and where will be interesting, but this need didn't 'sneak up' on the GoI, it has been a known problem for a long time.

Quoting ytz (Reply 14):
Indigo in particular could stand to upgauge in several markets ex-BOM. And you'll see them do that.

Indigo (6E) has the option to convert A320NEOs to A321NEOs. Will they do it? I suspect so.


Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
[email protected]
Posts: 16616
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:29 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sat Jan 30, 2016 5:55 am

Quoting chinmay17shetye (Reply 7):

Building it is not the problem. Building it fast is the problem.

There has been endless dithering. It should have already been built.
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
 
chinmay17shetye
Topic Author
Posts: 72
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:24 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sat Jan 30, 2016 8:36 am

Quoting jmchevallier (Reply 15):
It requires a lot of training and discipline, but can be started with a larger separation between arrival (5NM or about 2mn).

I don't know the exact procedures for cross runway landings.

During cross Runway usage, how much should be the distance between 2 approaches on the same runway and also between 2 approaches on 2 different cross runways ?

What is the ideal number of aircraft movements a major airport should be able to handle per hour for low congestion during the rush hour ?

Why is it not possible for airports like BOM to handle the amount of landings handled by LHR or DXB when the 5 mile separation (between approaches) is practised in a lot of the major airports of the world including BOM ? (This is when Mumbai has capacity to handle the arriving aircraft because of its new terminal, so there are not many Terminal constraints)
 
B777LRF
Posts: 2713
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 4:23 am

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sat Jan 30, 2016 9:24 am

Send your people to LGW. Have them learn how to run a single-runway operation to the highest level of efficiency. Implement the lessons learned without any hint of change or modification. Problem solved for another few years, leaving plenty of time to build a new airport.

But, TII, so i't never going to happen.
Signature. You just read one.
 
Crazy4Planes
Posts: 95
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:05 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sat Jan 30, 2016 10:06 am

India has a highly dys-functional government and together with lax bureaucracy and red tape, will delay the process of BOM airport up-gradation.
 
chinmay17shetye
Topic Author
Posts: 72
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:24 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:30 pm

Quoting Crazy4Planes (Reply 20):

India has a highly dys-functional government and together with lax bureaucracy and red tape, will delay the process of BOM airport up-gradation.

We can't expect anything from the government. We have to rely on GVK. And, The best way out is to clear some slums, build a small place to hold 10-20 planes, if possible also a mini terminal. And obviously use the runways to their maximum potential, the way LGA uses; so that BOM can handle at least 60-80 aircraft movements an hour. As you said about the upgrade, the government is not gonna do it.
 
Gr8Circle
Posts: 2635
Joined: Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:44 am

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:54 pm

I think there is enough space to relocate the existing hangars and maintenance areas occupied by AI along runway 27, and build a parallel runway......problem, as you say, is that the available space is illegally encroached for several years now and there is no political will to do anything about it....

Juhu airport need not be physically connected to BOM....there is a narrow area between the two, but that is heavily built up and owners of those buildings will never sell that land to the govt. Juhu can operate independently to handle smaller air traffic that doesn't need to use the international airport......all it needs is to develop some terminals and other infrastructure.....the runways should not really need extension in my opinion, to handle small business jets...
 
N867DA
Posts: 1234
Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 12:53 am

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sat Jan 30, 2016 2:07 pm

Are there any cities in India with two completely separate airports? Transferring between two airports in an Indian city would be a nightmare unless rail connectivity is available from day 1.

I remember my parents talking about how nice it'd be to tear down the slums and rebuild apartment-style housing for them...in 1995. Apparently some of the residents prefer a ground floor slum to a third floor apartment.
A nation turns its lonely eyes to you
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20278
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:55 pm

Quoting N867DA (Reply 23):
Transferring between two airports in an Indian city would be a nightmare unless rail connectivity is available from day 1.

There also needs to be rail into the city. If India is to move up the standard of living ladder, they need to be more efficient including faster ground movement.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
VTORD
Posts: 748
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:13 pm

Quoting chinmay17shetye (Reply 21):
The best way out is to clear some slums,
Quoting N867DA (Reply 23):
tear down the slums and rebuild apartment-style housing

This will almost certainly have to be done under a slum-redevelopment/rehabilitation scheme and it's not the easiest task in Mumbai. The builder / developer will have to arrange for a temporary accommodation for these folks, then build a multi-storey building to house them and because he has already incurred costs in doing this, he will want to get a permit to build some flats that he can sell and make money (std procedure in such cases) from in addition to the redevelopment housing.

This is easier said than done. First they will have to find a place to build and then there will be issues about how much sq. footage everybody is entitled to (you are not talking of a few thousand people) and some of them will have "issues" with relocation. Most of them may not even have the right paperwork! Yes, it's a slum and majority of them are squatters but over the years these have turned in to major vote banks for each political party depending upon what part of the slum you are talking about.
 
r2rho
Posts: 3096
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 10:13 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:26 pm

Quoting Gr8Circle (Reply 22):
Juhu can operate independently to handle smaller air traffic that doesn't need to use the international airport......all it needs is to develop some terminals and other infrastructure.....the runways should not really need extension in my opinion, to handle small business jets..

The Juhu runway is not effectively as long as it looks - it has some heavily displaced thresholds - likely there are buildings or other obstacles that require a higher approach.
I agree that expanding Juhu seems a sensible solution, however.
 
N867DA
Posts: 1234
Joined: Thu May 15, 2008 12:53 am

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sat Jan 30, 2016 8:18 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 24):
There also needs to be rail into the city. If India is to move up the standard of living ladder, they need to be more efficient including faster ground movement.

DEL has airport to city connectivity, so it's not some foreign concept. BOM's taxi drivers won over and even the Mumbai Metro/Monorail won't have a stop at the airport. BLR has no rail but the AC buses to the airport is a reasonable compromise.
A nation turns its lonely eyes to you
 
User avatar
jsnww81
Posts: 2541
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 3:29 am

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sat Jan 30, 2016 10:46 pm

Quoting VTORD (Reply 25):
This is easier said than done. First they will have to find a place to build and then there will be issues about how much sq. footage everybody is entitled to (you are not talking of a few thousand people) and some of them will have "issues" with relocation.

How was this handled during the construction of the elevated express highway to the new BOM terminal? A section of slum was actually demolished to put the road through - the only time I've seen any of the slums surrounding BOM relocated for airport expansion. Where were those residents relocated?

Haven't been to BOM since 2011, but that new road must be a godsend... getting from the international to the domestic terminals in a taxi took us almost an hour on very congested ground-level roads back then.
 
VTORD
Posts: 748
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:40 am

Quoting jsnww81 (Reply 28):

AFAIK only a few hundred families were relocated to Kurla. As I mentioned in the post above the problem may be that many will not even be eligible for the relocation for various reasons. So the land for the elevated expressway got cleared but not the airport land that is being encroached upon.

I will say it's made getting in & out of BOM easy. I was really surprised how quickly we made it to Navi Mumbai once we got in the car!
 
chinmay17shetye
Topic Author
Posts: 72
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:24 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sun Jan 31, 2016 5:24 pm

Quoting VTORD (Reply 25):
This will almost certainly have to be done under a slum-redevelopment/rehabilitation scheme and it's not the easiest task in Mumbai. The builder / developer will have to arrange for a temporary accommodation for these folks, then build a multi-storey building to house them and because he has already incurred costs in doing this, he will want to get a permit to build some flats that he can sell and make money (std procedure in such cases) from in addition to the redevelopment housing.

This is easier said than done. First they will have to find a place to build and then there will be issues about how much sq. footage everybody is entitled to (you are not talking of a few thousand people) and some of them will have "issues" with relocation. Most of them may not even have the right paperwork! Yes, it's a slum and majority of them are squatters but over the years these have turned in to major vote banks for each political party depending upon what part of the slum you are talking about.

This is the smallest problem faced. The problem due to which this won't take place is the politicians. The Politicians protect the slum-dwellers as they are a source of votes in the elections. If any dude clears the slums, he won't get votes !

So, when the airport developers and/or the police question the legality of the slums, the politicians simply wave them off. Convincing the politicians can only be done by bribing them. The politicians will then distribute a part of their bribe among the slum dwellers and the people will be obligated to move. But, bribing the politicians is obviously not legal and it is difficult for the airport to reach an agreement with the politicians as the airport is partially owned by the government themselves !
 
jmchevallier
Posts: 126
Joined: Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:17 am

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:23 pm

Quoting chinmay17shetye (Reply 18):
Why is it not possible for airports like BOM to handle the amount of landings handled by LHR or DXB when the 5 mile separation (between approaches) is practised in a lot of the major airports of the world including BOM ? (This is when Mumbai has capacity to handle the arriving aircraft because of its new terminal, so there are not many Terminal constraints

With 5NM between arrivals and a 140Kt approach speed, the theoritical arrival capacity will be 140/5 = 28/h. With one departure on the orher runway between 2 arrivals, 28 departures per hour should also be possible.
Hence a theoritical capacity of 28 ARR + 28 DEP = 56 ATM/h.
The sustainable capacity will be 10% lower, of 50 ATM/h

At LGA, the separation between arrivals can be as low as 3.5NM, resulting in 40 ARR + 40 DEP = 80 ATM/h, or a sustainable capacity 10% lower, or 72 ATM/h.
 
chinmay17shetye
Topic Author
Posts: 72
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:24 pm

RE: BOM To Saturate By 2018, Without Its New Airport.

Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:14 am

Quoting jmchevallier (Reply 31):
With 5NM between arrivals and a 140Kt approach speed, the theoritical arrival capacity will be 140/5 = 28/h. With one departure on the orher runway between 2 arrivals, 28 departures per hour should also be possible.
Hence a theoritical capacity of 28 ARR + 28 DEP = 56 ATM/h.
The sustainable capacity will be 10% lower, of 50 ATM/h

If Mumbai has the capacity to handle as many aircraft as DXB, why is it congested ?

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos