astuteman
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:18 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 50):
Well there is the 787-10 and 777-8, with the latter being around 5% larger in terms of cabin floor area and with significantly more range.

Boeing market their range as having 15% capacity jumps between all of the models, of course, including 787-10 - 777-8X  

It makes a good point though.
The 777-8X is only 1.2m longer than the 787-10X (69.5m vs 68.3m) and a complete seat width wider. It also has considerably greater range.
The A350-900 is a full 3.2m longer than the A330-900 (66.8m vs 63.6m), and a complete seat width wider. It also has considerably greater range.

The point remains, that in terms of size, 787-8 to 787-9 to 787-10 is almost, not quite, but almost, exactly the same as A330-800 to A330-900 to A350-900
The A330-900 and A350-900 do not overlap on size.

Most of the conversions from the A350 to the A330 that we have seen are because those airlines really wanted a widebody that was smaller and lighter than the A350-900, and the A350-800 wasn't it.
Availability might have played a part.

Rgds
 
Aither
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:32 am

Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
This may sound like a crazy question, but could the 787 put the 777 out of business, like the 777 did to the 747?

No because I will never choose a small 787 for long routes over the Pacific. It's like flying an A321neo over the Atlantic. Never I would do that.

[Edited 2016-01-31 00:33:54]
Never trust the obvious
 
tigerotor77w
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:16 am

I might as well ask this question here, as it's been perplexing me for a while.

Is the 787-777 family really as complete as the A330NEO-A350 family?

Sure, the 777-9X is larger than the A350-1000, but the 777-8X is a niche aircraft and the 787-10 lacks the legs to run 77E routes.

Specific questions --

if the 787-9 were configured in 8-abreast, could it still return better fuel economy than an A330-900 in 8-abreast? (The same applies for the 787-8 and A330-800)
Is the market for a 77E replacement not big enough to support two manufacturers?
What is Boeing's replacement for the 77W?

Maybe it's my lack of familiarity, but I see Airbus' wide body lineup as being more competitive than Boeing's at the moment. I'm not sure just how much of an impact the 787 is making on operations at the moment (and I'm not sure that the A330NEO won't come close enough not to matter), and the A350 seems to be a very formidable step against the 777. There's not enough momentum in the 777X yet to really draw any conclusions.
 
NAV30
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:32 am

Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 53):
I'm not sure just how much of an impact the 787 is making on operations at the moment

B787s (8s and 9s) are being delivered at rates of over 10 a month. Boeing are still delivering ordered current-model B777s, but a development 'gap' is expected since the new, larger B777s are not expected to be ready for about three years yet.

Only 15 Airbus A350s have been delivered so far, some months back. No-one knows whether there is some sort of delay.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A350_XWB_orders_and_deliveries



[Edited 2016-01-31 04:00:10]
 
WIederling
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:21 pm

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 47):

Reportedly AC was so upset at the performance of its A340/A333s it decided to place an order for both 777 and the 787. Also the 767s needed to be replaced.

That probably is more folk lore than anything solid.

There have been lots of protective spells woven around the 777.
But my guess is that most of these changes were effected
by making offers that could not be ignored.
( we now do know about "power of pricing" in scope of 787 sales.)
i.e. superior conditions that are later cloaked in (vastly) "superior product offering".

[Edited 2016-01-31 04:23:39]
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tortugamon
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:46 pm

Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 53):
Sure, the 777-9X is larger than the A350-1000, but the 777-8X is a niche aircraft and the 787-10 lacks the legs to run 77E routes.

Its still 5 models vs 4 spreading a greater capacity range and with the neo being less fuel efficient and less capable vs the 787. 789 essentially matches 77E capacity/capability - 78X doesn't need to.

Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 53):
What is Boeing's replacement for the 77W?

Depends on why operators (don't)like their 77Ws? If they bought it for capacity and range and have no problem filling it then its the 779. If they bought it for range and have a problem filling it then its the 778. If they bought it for capacity and don't need the range than its the 78X.

Of course the A351 is an excellent replacement if they don't need the capacity.

tortugamon
 
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 2:05 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 54):

The lack of intelligence is telling here. Airbus can go from 0 to 10 per month within a year. That's the A330's current production rate after over 15 years of service. Zero intelligence statements.
 
Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 53):
Is the 787-777 family really as complete as the A330NEO-A350 family?

Sure, the 777-9X is larger than the A350-1000, but the 777-8X is a niche aircraft and the 787-10 lacks the legs to run 77E routes.

What is good about the 787 and 777 and 777X combo is that it covers your needs short and long haul from 220 seats to around 370 seats. There are regional variants (787-10) and long range (777-8). The A330 and A350 only covers the 220 to 340 seat market so it is smaller there but can provide more flexibility with the A359 variants and a true A330-300 regional model. So each complement airline fleets and why we see the A330 and 777 dominating fleets worldwide. The 787, A350 and A330neo will remove the older models but are very complete.

Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 53):
if the 787-9 were configured in 8-abreast, could it still return better fuel economy than an A330-900 in 8-abreast? (The same applies for the 787-8 and A330-800)
Is the market for a 77E replacement not big enough to support two manufacturers?
What is Boeing's replacement for the 77W?

1. Depends on configuration and acquisition costs. Likely similar though the fuel economy over a 11 plus hour flight will heavily favour the 789 for payload and range.

2. The 77E replacement is very big and covered very well by both manufacturers. 789, A330 and A359 give carriers flexibility as to how to move forward.

3. Boeing's replacement for the 77W is the 748 and 777X going up in capacity, or the 787-10 for a slightly lesser capacity. The exact replacement is the A350-1000 hence they have built a good choice of aircraft around that.
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NAV30
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 2:39 pm

Quoting PhoenixVIP (Reply 57):
The lack of intelligence is telling here. Airbus can go from 0 to 10 per month within a year.

I'm afraid that, in the context, that just about counts as some kind of insult, PhoenixVIP?

All I mentioned was that only 15 A350s have so far been built and delivered, and there is no evidence that 'new-model' production is being increased to 'normal' new-model levels? Is that not an unusual issue that can be recorded and (politely) discussed?

[Edited 2016-01-31 06:50:39]
 
astuteman
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 3:49 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 56):
Its still 5 models vs 4 spreading a greater capacity range

with the ONLY difference being the 777-9X outlier.

And we all know that if the market for 777-9X sized planes really is big enough, Airbus WILL put something in it. And if it isn't .......  
Quoting tortugamon (Reply 56):
the neo being less fuel efficient and less capable... 78X doesn't need to

Just for clarification..
It doesn't matter when the Boeing frame is less capable, but it does when the Airbus one is?.....   

From 787-8/A330-800 to 777-8X/A350-1000, the two ranges match each other almost one-for one.
And each portfolio has one frame that doesn't quite have the legs of the rest - the A330-900 and 787-10
But aside from that it's pretty much a wash.

I suspect the A330-800 won't be as popular as the 787-8 as it is slightly more expensive to operate.
But I don't think either is going to sell many going forward.
The A330-900 is eminently capable of competing with the 787-9 economically, just not on range.
The 787-10 is eminently capable of competing with the A350-900 economically, just not on range.
I think the A350-1000 has WAY more legs in the market than the 777-8X going forward.

those sizes probably cover c. 85% of the widebody market by value.

The 777-9X is sort of out on its own, and defined by that huge EK order currently.
as I said before, if the overall market for that size appears, Airbus clearly WILL put something in it.

Rgds
 
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 3:56 pm

Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 53):
Sure, the 777-9X is larger than the A350-1000, but the 777-8X is a niche aircraft and the 787-10 lacks the legs to run 77E routes.

The 787-10 might not have the design range of the 777-200ER, but very few 777-200ERs are operated at their design range (because it would just be passengers and their baggage with no revenue cargo).

If the A330-300 can perform over 90% of today's 777-200ER missions per Airbus, considering the 787-10 has a fair bit more range than the A330-300, it should be able to perform some 95% or more of today's 777-200ER missions.
 
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 3:58 pm

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 48):
AC clearly likes the A330 for the European flights and they are now paid for.

I thought those A330s were owned by UA, and leased to AC?

Quoting PhoenixVIP (Reply 57):
Boeing's replacement for the 77W is the 748

What? That's the first I've heard anyone say that....
 
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 5:54 pm

Quoting neutronstar73 (Reply 61):
I thought those A330s were owned by UA, and leased to AC?

Purchased from AC and leased back when they were in deep trouble.

United Airlines To BUY Air Canada A330 (by FLY777UA Oct 22 1999 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 58):
All I mentioned was that only 15 A350s have so far been built and delivered, and there is no evidence that 'new-model' production is being increased to 'normal' new-model levels? Is that not an unusual issue that can be recorded and (politely) discussed?

Airbus forecast was to deliver 15 planes and 14 have been delivered last year. And there were much more in various stages of completion.

I suggest to have a look here (a bit more reliable than Wikipedia):

A350 Production And Delivery Thread Part 13 (by lightsaber Jan 3 2016 in Civil Aviation)

Furthermore:

Ramp up article dating back to 2014:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/airbus-begins-a350-ramp-up-towards-10-a-month-407410/
 
WIederling
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 6:47 pm

Quoting SQ22 (Reply 62):

to make it a compact statement:
2015 A350 deliveries are one short of planned due to Zodiac in the US not being able to prduce adequate numbers of toilets and premium seats.
Murphy is an optimist
 
tortugamon
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 7:21 pm

Quoting PhoenixVIP (Reply 57):
Airbus can go from 0 to 10 per month within a year

They can?

Quoting astuteman (Reply 59):
Just for clarification..
It doesn't matter when the Boeing frame is less capable, but it does when the Airbus one is?.....

Absolutely!   Come on Astuteman. Right before the 78X comment I said the 789 was there for range if a 77E-replacer needed it. That was the context. If you're replacing an A333 you, by definition, don't 'need' the range.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 59):
From 787-8/A330-800 to 777-8X/A350-1000, the two ranges match each other almost one-for one.

I would think under similar conditions the 778 should fly 750nm further than the A351.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 59):
I suspect the A330-800 won't be as popular as the 787-8 as it is slightly more expensive to operate.
But I don't think either is going to sell many going forward.

Agreed

Quoting astuteman (Reply 59):
The 777-9X is sort of out on its own, and defined by that huge EK order currently.
as I said before, if the overall market for that size appears, Airbus clearly WILL put something in it.

I think the 779 has a broader base than that but even if that is conceded there is definitely a different industrial/supply chain/FAL base differerence between the two OEMs in terms of widebodies - unless you think the A330neo is going to sell in the thousands (I don't) then even if Airbus does 'something' in the 779 space it will be hard to match Boeing from a capacity perspective without significant investment. e.g. 787 at 14/month, 77X up to 10.3/month.

Quoting WIederling (Reply 63):
2015 A350 deliveries are one short of planned due to Zodiac in the US not being able to prduce adequate numbers of toilets and premium seats.

I love the difference- The 787 fails to control its suppliers and its Boeing's fault (it was) and Airbus fails to meet its goals and it is (specifically) a US vendor's fault. Must be nice.

tortugamon
 
tigerotor77w
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 7:36 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 56):
Its still 5 models vs 4 spreading a greater capacity range and with the neo being less fuel efficient and less capable vs the 787. 789 essentially matches 77E capacity/capability - 78X doesn't need to.

I don't see the 789 matching the 77E's capacity -- at least not in terms of seat count. I don't want to bring this up from a comfort perspective, though I am also curious how the economics of the 787 look on 8- and 9-abreast configurations against 9-abreast (A350) and 8-abreast (A330NEO).

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 56):
Depends on why operators (don't)like their 77Ws? If they bought it for capacity and range and have no problem filling it then its the 779. If they bought it for range and have a problem filling it then its the 778. If they bought it for capacity and don't need the range than its the 78X.

I don't know that operators of the 77W don't like it, per se, but rather that it'll need a replacement eventually. Not all 77W routes will need the uplift of the 779 and fewer yet will need the legs of the 778.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 59):
The A330-900 is eminently capable of competing with the 787-9 economically, just not on range.

If this is true for sectors not requiring the range of the 789, what is the incentive to spend the extra money on the 789 or A358?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 60):
The 787-10 might not have the design range of the 777-200ER, but very few 777-200ERs are operated at their design range (because it would just be passengers and their baggage with no revenue cargo).

If the A330-300 can perform over 90% of today's 777-200ER missions per Airbus, considering the 787-10 has a fair bit more range than the A330-300, it should be able to perform some 95% or more of today's 777-200ER missions.

I don't know; this is where I'm hung up. The way I see it,

A332 replacement: 787-8
A333 replacement: 787-9 or A358
77E replacement: 787-10 or A359
77W replacement: A350-1000 (778 as a niche market aircraft with similar seats but higher MTOW)
744 replacement: 779

While the 787-10 might be able to handle 77E passenger loads, its order book suggests it's not as "adequate" a replacement for the 77E as is the A359. On top of this, the 77W doesn't have a Boeing replacement that touts fuel economy improvements akin to that of going from a 763ER to a 787.

The 777 family was originally sized to be the DC-10 replacement but grew to a bigger market (namely that of routes incapable of supporting 747 loads but needing a 747's range). The 787-10 beats the 772 A-market but misses the larger B-market. If the 777 market is moving to be the 744 killer -- ceding the superjumbo entirely to the A380 -- sure. But this is exactly my point, which is that Boeing lacks a true replacement for its own 777 family.

Make no mistake; the 777 family is an inspiration to me as an engineer and as an enthusiast I respect it for what it's done for the long-haul market. I've made several points to fly routes (or even plan vacations) only because I would get to fly on a 777. I'm dubious of the lasting intrigue of the 777X family but not because I don't want it to succeed; I just don't quite understand its business case.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 7:43 pm

Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 65):
While the 787-10 might be able to handle 77E passenger loads, its order book suggests it's not as "adequate" a replacement for the 77E as is the A359.

Well much of the 777-200ER replacement market has already been taken up with the A330-300, the A330-900, the A350-900 and the 787-9. EIS for those four frames is also earlier than the 787-10.



Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 65):
On top of this, the 77W doesn't have a Boeing replacement that touts fuel economy improvements akin to that of going from a 763ER to a 787.

I believe Boeing has been claiming 16% better fuel burn on the 777-9 than the 777-300ER, which is not a ridiculous amount off from the 20% they were claiming between the 767-300ER and 787-8.
 
tigerotor77w
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 7:49 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 66):
I believe Boeing has been claiming 16% better fuel burn on the 777-9 than the 777-300ER, which is not a ridiculous amount off from the 20% they were claiming between the 767-300ER and 787-8.

Is that trip cost or per seat cost?

I'm not yet sure airlines know (in the timeframe of the 777X's EIS) that they'll fill a 779 to justify higher trip costs but reduce, for instance, CASM. This means the 779 order book can still grow (certainly Boeing knows better than I do what the market is going to do), but my question is still whether a 77W replacement is needed.

Relevant to the original post: the 787 certainly doesn't fulfill either requirement in its current versions.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 7:52 pm

Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 65):
I don't see the 789 matching the 77E's capacity -- at least not in terms of seat count.

Well the cabin length is very similar. UA and BA operate both and the seat counts/format aren't too far different.

Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 65):
I don't know that operators of the 77W don't like it, per se, but rather that it'll need a replacement eventually. Not all 77W routes will need the uplift of the 779 and fewer yet will need the legs of the 778.

Then it will be a 78X vs A350 proposal. Certainly the A351 will take a lot of those orders.

I feel like after a decade of service many of these airlines will feel comfortable with 2 more rows of seats.

Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 65):
On top of this, the 77W doesn't have a Boeing replacement that touts fuel economy improvements akin to that of going from a 763ER to a 787.

Both the 779 and the 788 offer up less than 10% higher capacity at ~15%+ better efficiency per seat with more cargo capacity and more range. Very similar in my opinion.

tortugamon
 
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 7:58 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 31):
FWIW, back in the mid-2000s, Air Canada made a simultaneous order for 77L, 77W, and 787. Rare, but it has happened.

It wasn't just Air Canada, Air New Zealand also made an order in 2004 for the 772 and the 7E7 (As it was called then). That order later developed into becoming the launch customer for the 789.

All 8x of those 772 are still in service with, 789s being delivered and the all have just had an $100million NZD refit project carried out on them.

NZ has always attended that they need something other than just the 787 family, the 787-10 can't cross the pacific with an full load and cargo to there liking. They have said the 777 (772/77W) will be replaced by the 777-9 or 350-1000s.
 
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:03 pm

I think it will take a big bit out of production of the 777. Currently the 789 is carries, for some airlines, as many passengers as a 772 and the 787-10 has not hit the runway yet. I guess this is why the 777x is being made large then the 777's.
Remember when American Airline had a fleet of DC10's as its long distance aircraft. It will be like that. Airlines may want the 737 family for short haul and the 787 for long haul. Two types of aircraft, less training, less parts. Southwest Airlines on a bigger scale or American and Delta in the 80's and 90's.
 
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:27 pm

Quoting Beatyair (Reply 70):
I think it will take a big bit out of production of the 777. Currently the 789 is carries, for some airlines, as many passengers as a 772 and the 787-10 has not hit the runway yet. I guess this is why the 777x is being made large then the 777's.

I'd say some airlines are being slow to react to the 777X/787-10 until they see Boeing being able to get the aircraft to an certain development stage. Allot of airlines got burnt bad by Boeing with the 787 delays, and probably don't want to risk it again.

Air New Zealand ordered on 2004, and got the first 787-9 in 2014 so around 10 years after they had ordered it.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:50 pm

Quoting zkncj (Reply 71):
I'd say some airlines are being slow to react to the 777X/787-10 until they see Boeing being able to get the aircraft to an certain development stage. Allot of airlines got burnt bad by Boeing with the 787 delays, and probably don't want to risk it again.

There has to be a certain degree of that, I agree. The 78X is also limited because it will only be produced in South Carolina for the time being which is only 1 of 2 lines so that limits the available production slots even more. I imagine the 78X wait is about 5 years at this point - 77X is probably 6+.

tortugamon
 
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:12 pm

Quoting SQ22 (Reply 62):

Airbus forecast was to deliver 15 planes and 14 have been delivered last year. And there were much more in various stages of completion.

I suggest to have a look here (a bit more reliable than Wikipedia):

A350 Production And Delivery Thread Part 13 (by lightsaber Jan 3 2016 in Civil Aviation)

Furthermore:

Ramp up article dating back to 2014:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/airbus-begins-a350-ramp-up-towards-10-a-month-407410/

  

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 64):

   They can't. No manufacturer can.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 58):

So don't insult my intelligence or Anetters intelligence just because we post facts. Thank you.

Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 67):

We are looking at a model that will be delivered in at least 4 year time. The sort of configuration that Boeing will allow is a 10 abreast standard economy plus stretched length to allow for more Y or F / J seating that lifts CASM. We know the A380 has the best CASM at moment but is beaten handily by the 777X when it enters service. Airlines ordering the 777X like EK and CX clearly show they will fill a plane beyond the capacity of their existing 77Ws.

Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 65):

The business case for the 777X is to fill the gap that exists between the A350-1000 and the 748 /A380. It improves its CASM and RASM by being a stretched model to be a better competitor and which it will be. This plus the lower capacity 787 models make them very complementary.
Inspire the truth.
 
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:45 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 64):
I love the difference- The 787 fails to control its suppliers and its Boeing's fault (it was) and Airbus fails to meet its goals and it is (specifically) a US vendor's fault. Must be nice.

Should I have added that Zodiac US was even with intensive care from Airbus not able to get their act together?

Airbus has in recent years propped up a range of suppliers and successfully "resocketed" them.
Mostly basket cases due to the 787 mismanagement.
Murphy is an optimist
 
astuteman
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:52 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 64):
I would think under similar conditions the 778 should fly 750nm further than the A351.

My use of the word "range" was ambiguous there I suspect. I meant "range" of products.
Agree the 777-8X goes further

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 64):
I think the 779 has a broader base than that

For what it's worth I am in the camp that agrees - I think the 777-9X will do well, and Airbus will have to respond

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 64):
unless you think the A330neo is going to sell in the thousands (I don't)

I'm personally comfortable with it selling over 1000 (not sure about the plural bit). I don't see what competitive dynamic is likely to change much in the next 10-15 years at that size

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 64):
it will be hard to match Boeing from a capacity perspective without significant investment. e.g. 787 at 14/month, 77X up to 10.3/month.

Not sure. I think the A350 should get close to the 787's rate (14/month) once it is mature.
I don't see the 777X being delivered at 10/month at any time. Whilst I think it will be a success, it will face the sort of competition that the 77W never saw.
6-7/month tops (IMO), which I think the A330/A330NEO should be able to match.

By c. 2021/22 I don't think there'll be much in it in the widebodys.
(Think Airbus will have the lead in narrowbodys)


Rgds
 
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:20 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 75):
I don't see the 777X being delivered at 10/month at any time. Whilst I think it will be a success, it will face the sort of competition that the 77W never saw


  

Everybody needs to remember, only for the last 3 years has the 777 been churning out almost 100 airplanes a year (8.3 per month). The monthly average rate for 1995 thru 2012 was only 5 airplanes a month -- as low as 3, as high as 7. It was a success and a money maker before it reached it's present rate.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:24 pm

Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 67):
Is that trip cost or per seat cost?

The latest from Boeing's marketing is 12% lower trip fuel and 10% lower trip cost.



Quoting tigerotor77w (Reply 67):
I'm not yet sure airlines know (in the timeframe of the 777X's EIS) that they'll fill a 779 to justify higher trip costs but reduce, for instance, CASM.

The 777-9 is not much larger than the 777-300ER. For most customers, it's going to offer 1-2 more rows of Business Class and an additional row of Economy. So filling it should not be an issue for any operator.
 
roseflyer
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Joined: Fri Feb 13, 2004 9:34 am

RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:33 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 75):
Not sure. I think the A350 should get close to the 787's rate (14/month) once it is mature.
I don't see the 777X being delivered at 10/month at any time. Whilst I think it will be a success, it will face the sort of competition that the 77W never saw.
6-7/month tops (IMO), which I think the A330/A330NEO should be able to match.

I just don't see that. The A350 even if stretched to the A350-1100 does not have a big enough wing to match the payload of the 777-9. Airbus won't really have a direct competitor for the 777-9. I see the 777x getting to a 7 per month production rate without any problems. It should be a large healthy market.

The A330neo on the other hand matches up directly in a capacity, but with less range against an airplane that under most operating conditions has lower fuel burn. I don't see A330neo production matching the 777x. The market is bigger for smaller widebodies, but the 787 is a superior plane.

[Edited 2016-01-31 15:45:16]
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8952
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:07 am

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 78):
I just don't see that. The A350 even if stretched to the A350-1100 does not have a big enough wing to match the payload of the 777-9.

The wing has to match MTOW not payload. For the A350 the OEW will be lower and the needed fuel will be less.

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 78):
The A330neo on the other hand matches up directly in a capacity, but with less range against an airplane that under most operating conditions has lower fuel burn. I don't see A330neo production matching the 777x. The market is bigger for smaller widebodies, but the 787 is a superior plane.

The A330neo will have the lower capital cost than the 787, that is also part of CASM. I do not see the 777X matching the production rate of the 330neo, mainly because smaller wide bodies sell in greater numbers.
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:41 am

Quoting WIederling (Reply 74):
Should I have added that Zodiac US was even with intensive care from Airbus not able to get their act together?

Don't care what you do actually - just noting the different treatment. Its cool - kinda normal around here.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 75):
My use of the word "range" was ambiguous there I suspect. I meant "range" of products.
Agree the 777-8X goes further

I now see.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 75):
I'm personally comfortable with it selling over 1000 (not sure about the plural bit). I don't see what competitive dynamic is likely to change much in the next 10-15 years at that size

Well I see availability changing - which is big. As we have discussed elsewhere I do think casm and maintenance will be lower and range better on the 787. Once availability improves I think it will mostly come down to price and I think the 787 will be priced in a way that takes into account this solo competitive dynamic. A332 out sold the 764 as an example.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 75):
I don't see the 777X being delivered at 10/month at any time. Whilst I think it will be a success, it will face the sort of competition that the 77W never saw.
6-7/month tops (IMO), which I think the A330/A330NEO should be able to match.

I don't think the neo will out deliver the 77X in any year after 2021. I also have a hard time seeing the 77X at 10/month but I do see north of 6/month and I think the 778F will be there as soon as demand drops. That is 3 models and a much larger commercial aviation industry next decade to keep that line active. Just can't see how the A339 matches that (I agree that there isn't much A338 demand).

I do see the 787 delivering more than the A350 for the next decade.

tortugamon
 
WIederling
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Mon Feb 01, 2016 3:51 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 79):
I do see the 787 delivering more than the A350 for the next decade.

Difficult to see at the moment.
To make that viable the 787 would have to sell significantly more.
We'll have to see if a shorter delivery horizon will increase new orders.
to stay with 14 frames a month order intake must be equal or better
than that. i.e. 170 orders per year sustained.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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sunrisevalley
Posts: 5392
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RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Mon Feb 01, 2016 5:11 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
but I would not underestimate the 787-9's role, as well.

You have a carrier like NZ with their 789's set up at 302 passengers and their 77E's at 312 . the 789 will burn between 20 and 25% less fuel. which must kill off the 77E over time assuming the seat mix of premium to economy continues to work in which case they will probably increase the number of premium seats on the 789.
 
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Ncfc99
Posts: 778
Joined: Tue May 31, 2005 2:42 am

RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Mon Feb 01, 2016 7:24 pm

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 53):
Only 15 Airbus A350s have been delivered so far

Which is one short of the schedule Airbus stated due to the slow delivery of furnishings.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 53):
some months back

No, 'a month back' is what you mean. Last delivery was 31/12/2015.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 53):
No-one knows whether there is some sort of delay.

Yes we do, its with the interior furnishings.

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 57):
All I mentioned was that only 15 A350s have so far been built and delivered

And the rest...............

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 57):
and there is no evidence that 'new-model' production is being increased to 'normal' new-model levels?

Yes there is. At the end of 2013 frames where being loaded at the start of production at 1 frame per month. At the end of 2014 it was 3 per month, at the end of 2015 it was 5 per month. AT the end of 2016 it is planned that it will be 7 per month and at the end of 2017 10 per month.

To be clear so there is no confusion, this is when the rate the frames START production, not the rate they are delivering.

https://sites.google.com/site/a350xwbproduction/production-list

Quoting NAV30 (Reply 57):
Is that not an unusual issue that can be recorded and (politely) discussed?

There is no issue to discuss, only in the minds of some beligerant posters.
 
tigerotor77w
Posts: 196
Joined: Sat Mar 04, 2006 11:35 am

RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:04 pm

A lot of good replies to my questions. Thanks for keeping it professional and addressing the specific points. I can finally better grasp the direction Boeing took with the 777X family.

I guess I hold the 777 in high enough esteem that I expect its replacement to be another 777 (which the A359 largely is) and not the 787, but seeing the 787 family step up is comforting.

I think we'll see whose strategy ends up being closer to market reality.  
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
Joined: Tue Apr 09, 2013 11:14 pm

RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:18 pm

Quoting WIederling (Reply 80):
Difficult to see at the moment.
To make that viable the 787 would have to sell significantly more.
We'll have to see if a shorter delivery horizon will increase new orders.
to stay with 14 frames a month order intake must be equal or better
than that. i.e. 170 orders per year sustained.

Both aircraft have similar backlogs - the 787 has a higher stated production goal, the 787 has been selling well, there are more models and a freighter would be introduced if sales slow, smaller aircraft sell better, Boeing produces 12 months/year....hard to see how it won't outdeliver the A350 actually.

tortugamon
 
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Polot
Posts: 9733
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:27 pm

Quoting WIederling (Reply 62):

to make it a compact statement:
2015 A350 deliveries are one short of planned due to Zodiac in the US not being able to prduce adequate numbers of toilets and premium seats.
Quoting WIederling (Reply 73):
Should I have added that Zodiac US was even with intensive care from Airbus not able to get their act together?

I don't know why you keep bringing up the US, when that is hardly where all of Zodiac's problems are stemming from. Zodiac isn't even an American company.

Quoting WIederling (Reply 80):
Difficult to see at the moment.
To make that viable the 787 would have to sell significantly more.
We'll have to see if a shorter delivery horizon will increase new orders.
to stay with 14 frames a month order intake must be equal or better
than that. i.e. 170 orders per year sustained.

As it stands right now I'm pretty sure the 787 still has a larger backlog than the A350, although it might be different now with recent A350 orders. Either way it is very close, ~750-800 frames each. Obviously both the 787 and A350 are going to get future orders.
 
RIX
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2000 4:46 am

RE: Could The 787 Put The 777 Out Of Business?

Tue Feb 02, 2016 3:56 pm

Quoting Polot (Reply 85):

Quoting WIederling (Reply 73):
Should I have added that Zodiac US was even with intensive care from Airbus not able to get their act together?

I don't know why you keep bringing up the US...

That's what he does, don't deprive him of his key intent on this forum.

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