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masseybrown
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WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:09 pm

http://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-m...737-max-ahead-of-target-1454516494

Wall Street Journal says the 737MAX may deliver up to 6 months early.
 
roseflyer
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:25 pm

Interesting timing for the article. While Airbus and Pratt are delaying A320neo deliveries and struggling with the PW1100G issues, CFM and Boeing may be able to deliver the first 737 MAX early. It will be interesting if that actually happens.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
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enilria
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Wed Feb 03, 2016 5:28 pm

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 1):
Interesting timing for the article. While Airbus and Pratt are delaying A320neo deliveries and struggling with the PW1100G issues, CFM and Boeing may be able to deliver the first 737 MAX early. It will be interesting if that actually happens.

All smells like marketing that would help sales if oil weren't practically free.  
 
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seahawk
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Wed Feb 03, 2016 6:23 pm

Good news for Boeing.
 
masseybrown
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Wed Feb 03, 2016 7:20 pm

The referenced article (subscription only) goes on to hint that the first article delivery date may hinge somewhat on a phase-out plan for current production models. It sounds as if Boeing may offer incentives to convert current model orders to MAX once a delivery date is certain. All dependent on testing, of course.

Edited for grammar

[Edited 2016-02-03 12:03:49]
 
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Wed Feb 03, 2016 7:28 pm

Seems like a very fortunate thing for Boeing as the NG has been rumoured to see a rate cut in production due to a shortfall of aircraft prior to MAX manufacturing starting for Boeing.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/boeing-may-face-gap-in-bridge-to-737-max-analyst-421476/

Quote:
Boeing may slow down the rate of 737NG deliveries this year due to a demand shortfall in the 18-month bridge to the arrival of the re-engined 737 Max, UBS analyst David Strauss says.

Strauss’ analysis in a new research note to clients may help explain the apparent mystery behind last week’s guidance update from Boeing. After delivering 762 commercial aircraft in 2015, Boeing now plans to deliver between 740-745 aircraft in 2016.
"Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue." Steven McCroskey, Airplane!
 
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Adipasquale
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:12 pm

Wasn't there a recent thread claiming the CFM LEAP engines were missing specs by a wide margin? If that is true, it would seem like the 737MAX being delivered early might not exactly be likely due to the engines needing further development. Can't find the darn thread though...
DH8A DH8B CR1 CR2 CR7 CR9 E45 E70 E75 E90 D93 M88 318 319 320 321 333 343 712 732 733 734 73G 738 739 744 752 753 762 763 772 77L 77W
 
roseflyer
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:36 pm

Quoting Adipasquale (Reply 6):
Wasn't there a recent thread claiming the CFM LEAP engines were missing specs by a wide margin? If that is true, it would seem like the 737MAX being delivered early might not exactly be likely due to the engines needing further development. Can't find the darn thread though...

Some unnamed sources told Aspire about 9 months ago that the Leap 1B on the MAX was 4-5% sfc miss and the Leap1A on the A320 NEO was about 2-3%. Those numbers have been repeated on many aviation blogs and forums and keep getting repeated. The rumors have been floating out there for a while, but I don't think any credible sources have actually confirmed any of the numbers. Various blogs and forums have interpreted them different ways. I haven't heard any new numbers since the Aspire article, so I don't know if they are true and the numbers have probably changed since the Leap 1B is now in the flight testing phase on the MAX.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
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lightsaber
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:46 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 4):
It sounds as if Boeing may offer incentives to convert current model orders to MAX once a delivery date is certain. All dependent on testing, of course.

No need to incentivise. Boeing must switch over early...

Lightsaber
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PlaneAdmirer
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:00 pm

If Boeing can move deliveries up, can CFM move up its schedule as well?
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:03 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 4):
It sounds as if Boeing may offer incentives to convert current model orders to MAX once a delivery date is certain.

Wonder if UA would convert those new 737-700s to -7MAX...
 
roseflyer
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:15 am

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 10):
Wonder if UA would convert those new 737-700s to -7MAX...

With that order booked so recently, I don't think that they would be looking to change it. Those are probably very near term delivery positions to get UA extra capacity ASAP.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
hiflyeras
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:25 am

AS has 19 -900ER's for delivery in 2016....has been told that their first MAX might arrive 4th quarter 2016. So maybe convert some of those 19 -900's if their MAX orders can be accelerated?
 
dc10lover
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:28 am

I would always expect delays. It takes a lot of work to make an aircraft fit for service. The A320 NEO isn't really fit for service because of the engine issues.
Why endure the nightmare and congestion of LAX when BUR, LGB, ONT & SNA is so much easier to fly in and out of. Same with OAK & SJC when it comes to SFO.
 
bmw123
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:14 am

Leeham agrees with post.
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:23 am

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 11):
With that order booked so recently, I don't think that they would be looking to change it. Those are probably very near term delivery positions to get UA extra capacity ASAP.

Not due until mid 2017...that said, I imagine if Boeing was planning an early MAX delivery it would have been discussed with UA before the order was announced.
 
roseflyer
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Thu Feb 04, 2016 1:05 pm

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 15):

Not due until mid 2017...that said, I imagine if Boeing was planning an early MAX delivery it would have been discussed with UA before the order was announced.

Mid 2017 is actually really soon. It's hard to get a passenger airplane configured and designed faster than that. The interior components have long lead times. We all know galleys and seats have created headaches for all manufacturers and UA is going to put a completely different interior on its 73Gs from what was delivered to CO 18 years ago. Switching to the MAX is unlikely for that order.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
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hOMSaR
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:53 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 4):
The referenced article (subscription only) goes on to hint that the first article delivery date may hinge somewhat on a phase-out plan for current production models. It sounds as if Boeing may offer incentives to convert current model orders to MAX once a delivery date is certain. All dependent on testing, of course.

If we're reading the same article (the wsj.com article linked at the top of this thread; accessible sans paywall by doing a google search for the article), then it says nothing of the sort. The article makes no reference to production of current models.

Within that article there is a link to another article (http://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-a...arly-737-max-deliveries-1454409005), but the only mention that article makes is "Boeing needs a smooth transition to the Max from the existing plane to ensure its cash-cow status continues uninterrupted."

There is no mention in either article of a need for phase-out plans for the current model, and absolutely no mention that Boeing is trying to convert orders from one model to the other.

Given that Boeing has to cut back production on the NG due to a shortage of orders, it would be quite surprising, indeed, if Boeing were to offer airlines incentives to further reduce their backlog of 737NGs and leave an even greater gap between NG and Max production. They can build both models side-by-side if they have to, so there's no harm in having a few "extra" NG orders (if it came to that).
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airliner371
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:43 pm

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 12):
AS has 19 -900ER's for delivery in 2016....has been told that their first MAX might arrive 4th quarter 2016. So maybe convert some of those 19 -900's if their MAX orders can be accelerated?

This year??? That's nearly a year earlier than planned. If true all I can say is WOW, bravo Boeing. I wonder how this affects WN since they are the launch customer for the MAX 8 and 7.
 
Prost
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:38 pm

I wonder how many airlines would say 'thanks, but no thanks' to receiving Max early. There are issues involved with taking delivery of an aircraft, including arranging financing, possible pilot training, and capital expenditures in their budgets. If you're expecting $600 million in aircraft purchases in FY 2018, but now it's available in FY2017, I imagine some carriers wouldn't be able to take on that commitment. And for carriers that are taking on MAX to replace older frames in their fleet, if they are on a depreciation schedule, and MAX arrives to soon, the carrier would need to write off the remainder of the value of the older frames.

My take is early isn't always great, unless someone is chomping at the bit for extra capacity.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:38 pm

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 18):
I wonder how this affects WN since they are the launch customer for the MAX 8 and 7.

I believe WN has already stated they're getting their first MAX early as well
 
roseflyer
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Fri Feb 05, 2016 12:10 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 19):

I wonder how many airlines would say 'thanks, but no thanks' to receiving Max early. There are issues involved with taking delivery of an aircraft, including arranging financing, possible pilot training, and capital expenditures in their budgets. If you're expecting $600 million in aircraft purchases in FY 2018, but now it's available in FY2017, I imagine some carriers wouldn't be able to take on that commitment. And for carriers that are taking on MAX to replace older frames in their fleet, if they are on a depreciation schedule, and MAX arrives to soon, the carrier would need to write off the remainder of the value of the older frames.

My take is early isn't always great, unless someone is chomping at the bit for extra capacity.


I suspect those that may have the option of taking early delivery such as southwest already know it is a possibility and have plans to accommodate schedule changes
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
usflyguy
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Fri Feb 05, 2016 1:13 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 19):
I wonder how many airlines would say 'thanks, but no thanks' to receiving Max early. There are issues involved with taking delivery of an aircraft, including arranging financing, possible pilot training,
Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 20):
I believe WN has already stated they're getting their first MAX early as well

WN is having to create separate list of pilots because a pilot can fly both the classic and NG or the NG and MAX, but a pilot cannot fly the classic and MAX, there are too many differences. Has WN figured out how that is going to be accomplished? Are pilots going to bid the positions?
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:30 am

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 22):
WN is having to create separate list of pilots because a pilot can fly both the classic and NG or the NG and MAX, but a pilot cannot fly the classic and MAX, there are too many differences. Has WN figured out how that is going to be accomplished? Are pilots going to bid the positions?

Are there really WN pilots that ONLY fly 'classic' 37's? I'd be really surprised if this was true.
 
usflyguy
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:53 am

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 23):
Are there really WN pilots that ONLY fly 'classic' 37's? I'd be really surprised if this was true.

No and my post doesn't say anything about WN pilots that ONLY fly the classic. Currently, all WN pilots fly all of the aircraft because of the single type rating. A pilot can not be qualified to fly all 3, the classic, NG, and MAX, they can only fly 2 and that can be either the classic and the NG or the NG and the MAX... one of the reasons that the retirements of the classics went from 2021 to 2018. Understand?
My post is my ideas and my opinions only, I do not represent the ideas or opinions of anyone else or company.
 
hiflyeras
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Fri Feb 05, 2016 5:32 am

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 24):
Understand?

Thank you for clarifying.
 
Okcflyer
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:29 am

IF this turns out to be true ... And that is a big IF ... It would be a little ironic.

Boeing announced 787. Airbus tripped over themselves answering. Advantage seemed to be Boeing. Finally A decided on the A350 as we know it. It had a fairly smooth project execution and introduction to the real world. Boeing meanwhile fumbled the 787 multiple times. Due to the fumbles, the gap between A & B reduced tremendously. Boeing only ended up with a 3 year (2012 vs 2015) advantage, way less than originally expected.

Now the tables may be reversed. Airbus announces NEO. Boeing's NSA response is rebuffed by the market. They scramble the MAX. Today some NEO's are missing engines (GTF) for at least a short while, the with the GTF being the engine prioritized over the CFM offering (to be fair, the difference in timeline isn't too extreme).

It's possible that with another hiccup with the GTF, and IF (!!) MAX does deliver early, the tables could be reversed and this time Boeing successfully plays catchup on the back of the competitors whooopies.

[Edited 2016-02-04 22:39:06]
 
mjoelnir
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:11 am

Quoting okcflyer (Reply 26):
IF this turns out to be true ... And that is a big IF ... It would be a little ironic.

Boeing announced 787. Airbus tripped over themselves answering. Advantage seemed to be Boeing. Finally A decided on the A350 as we know it. It had a fairly smooth project execution and introduction to the real world. Boeing meanwhile fumbled the 787 multiple times. Due to the fumbles, the gap between A & B reduced tremendously. Boeing only ended up with a 3 year (2012 vs 2015) advantage, way less than originally expected.

Now the tables may be reversed. Airbus announces NEO. Boeing's NSA response is rebuffed by the market. They scramble the MAX. Today some NEO's are missing engines (GTF) for at least a short while, the with the GTF being the engine prioritized over the CFM offering (to be fair, the difference in timeline isn't too extreme).

It's possible that with another hiccup with the GTF, and IF (!!) MAX does deliver early, the tables could be reversed and this time Boeing successfully plays catchup on the back of the competitors whooopies.

Do not get up your hope to fast. The GTF was not prioritized, but was earlier available. It is a bit early to declare the GTF problems a disaster. There are as of today 15 to 20 frames a few days to two month delayed in delivery. First delivery was delayed by one month.
If P&W does get the engine fixed inside the time frames discussed, starting to deliver enough "fixed" engines in June, the number of A320neo delivered this year does not have to come out lower than planed.
Meanwhile we will see both LH taking further deliveries and Indigo seem to have agreed to take deliveries with engines in the current state too.
 
roseflyer
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:02 pm

Quoting usflyguy (Reply 22):

WN is having to create separate list of pilots because a pilot can fly both the classic and NG or the NG and MAX, but a pilot cannot fly the classic and MAX, there are too many differences. Has WN figured out how that is going to be accomplished? Are pilots going to bid the positions?

Do you know why? What changes to the max are so significant that pilots can't fly the 737-300 and 737MAX? Is that a WN policy or an overall policy? It surprises me since many airlines had pilots going from 767-300ERs to 757-200s with a common type rating despite the airplane differences.

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 27):
Quoting okcflyer (Reply 26):

This thread is not about the A320neo or P & W.

[Edited 2016-02-05 06:19:16]
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
WIederling
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:54 pm

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 28):
Do you know why? What changes to the max are so significant that pilots can't fly the 737-300 and 737MAX?

They would not want to go back.
Result: WN would have no pilots for their Classics.  
Murphy is an optimist
 
SWADawg
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RE: WSJ Says MAX May Deliver Early

Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:18 pm

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 28):

The main difference is that Boeing will be delivering the MAX with a dual cue Flight Director and WN uses a single cue on both their Classics and NGs currently. The plan is to switch over to dual cue on the NGs in early 2017 just prior to first MAX delivery. The problem is that the Classics cannot be flown with dual cue, so they will remain single cue (V bars) and the FAA will not allow pilots to fly the Classic and the MAX at the same time. Therefore, the requirement to have Classic subsets for a small number of pilots until the Classic fleet is fully retired in 2018.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines

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