Delta Hong Kong

peanuts · Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:15 pm

Delta got here by being extremely pragmatic and utilizing JV's where possible (using AMS/CDG for India/Egypt/Middle East etc). DL doesn't hesitate to forgo a nonstop option and redirect traffic over another hub when it makes sense. Short/Medium term this seems to work fine. Long term it will pose some issues while competition doesn't stand still and more capable aircraft enter the market.

DL is basically in its infancy again with regards to Asia. They went back to the drawing board as soon as the merger started and other more important kinks were worked out.

SEA is still fairly new, give it time. But at the same time they can't be skittish about it either. They should offer a solid daily schedule to the key cities in Asia. The same sorta commitment they gave LHR starting right after the merger.

I understand Cathay is king. But give me a break. If Cathay owns New York with at least 4 flights a day you can't tell me that with some huge effort DL/Skyteam can't pry themselves into that market somehow.

I'd open up a Delta city office in the middle of China town (NY). And if one exists I'd clear the place out and start over.

DL needs both JFK and SEA to HKG really.

I understand opportunity cost and picking your battles. This is a worthy battle though. A stronger DL/HKG gives it also way more leverage when negotiating with your Asian partners.

And if secondary China was ever on DL/SEA's radar then you'd certainly need to figure out how to crack the HKG egg first in my opinion.

AA is currently fully capitalizing on DL's Asia conundrum.

[Edited 2016-02-08 11:28:37]

jasoncrh · Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:19 pm

Cathay has a huge hub in HKG (both Cathay and Dragon Air flights) providing feed and onward travel opportunities to dozens of cities
all over China, Southeast Asia, and india from HKG. What does Delta offer at HKG? oh yeah, nothing.

Quoting peanuts (Reply 50):
I understand Cathay is king. But give me a break. If Cathay owns New York with at least 4 flights a day you can't tell me that with some huge effort DL/Skyteam can't pry themselves into the market somehow.

RyanairGuru · Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:02 pm

Quoting Jasoncrh (Reply 51):

Big deal. Or do you really believe that connecting flow to SGN is make-or-break for United in Hong Kong?

LAX772LR · Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:09 pm

For starters, I don't understand why DL hasn't moved heaven&earth to get Hong Kong Airlines as a partner in that gateway.

They have plenty of onward destinations, they codeshare with intercon partners, and they don't have a N.American partner. Seems like an obvious advantage that's being left on the table-- I wonder why.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7):
The issue comes down to the fact that DL for whatever reason similar to NW prior is simply weak in HKG and has been unable to generate enough profitable traffic for even a consistent daily nonstop to US mainland.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 9):
The other two gateways that make sense (JFK & LAX) are extremely well-served by Cathay & partners, leaving little local O&D available for Delta.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 25):
Cathay is huge in LAX and JFK, which effectively takes them out of contention as gateways with any reasonable chance of profitability for Delta.

That was the case with LHR too, and yet DL fought their way into that... against even more carriers.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 11):
How do you think AA would perform in the DTW-PVG market? Or CX would perform in the JFK-LHR market? Profitable carriers chose their battles wisely.

Non sequitur.

Quoting RDUDDJI (Reply 19):
UA has HKG-SFO/ORD/JFK.

UA hasn't flown JFK-HKG since 2001.
They do have EWR-HKG from sCO though.

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 23):
Based on geography, SEA is the best connecting spot in the western US to HKG.

Geography doesn't mean much in that regard.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 26):
Dude, the hub is like two years old. And Asian economies have sucked for the entire duration it has existed. Calm down.

^THIS

Quoting a380787 (Reply 29):
Check your facts. China has been growing at 7+%, while HKG has the world's hottest property market during those years. Your facts fail you once again.

Huh? DL announced the flight in Aug 2013... from them until December 2015, growth in China's GDP has dipped considerably. Same for HKG, with a brief exception in mid-2015.

Quoting a380787 (Reply 29):
UA is the only carrier in secondary China

Not true. Several Chinese carriers fly secondary cities to USA as well.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 34):
BKK is even lower-yielding than TPE

Indeed, and yet, DL is the only USA carrier making it work....

Quoting Flighty (Reply 36):
18 years, since SARS?

The international SARS outbreak was barely 13yrs ago.

Quoting YLWbased (Reply 44):
KE is another thing, ever since the Asiana crash in SFO, the general public comes to a realization of how much the "order obeying" culture of the Koreans have would affect flying safety.

Count me in on that. No amount of "service" makes up for incompetence upfront... whether it's culturally-derived or otherwise.

Quoting peanuts (Reply 50):
I understand Cathay is king. But give me a break. If Cathay owns New York with at least 4 flights a day you can't tell me that with some huge effort DL/Skyteam can't pry themselves into that market somehow.

[Edited 2016-02-08 12:15:44]

jasoncrh · Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:10 pm

Not at all. Cathay has over 50 cities behind HKG that feed traffic to the NYC-HKG route. In addition to it having a lock on the most
lucrative HKG point of sale travel. Cathay also partners with AA for some feed in NYC. Delta has nothing to feed in HKG while it does
have some but not much connectivity at JFK. Not the same thing, and it is a big deal.

United survives and thrives to HKG from the fact that it serves HKG from its hubs which also have the largest amounts of
O/D travel to/ from HKG. The SGN traffic is merely icing on the cake, not the bulwark upon which it builds the market.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 52):
Big deal. Or do you really believe that connecting flow to SGN is make-or-break for United in Hong Kong?

Sightseer · Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:29 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 53):
For starters, I don't understand why DL hasn't moved heaven&earth to get Hong Kong Airlines as a partner in that gateway.

That is a good point. Perhaps there is something relating to HU's partnership with AA? Not sure what that would be, though.

I don't know much about HX's standing in the local HKG market nor their premium product, but I have flown them in coach and enjoyed the experience. You'd think they'd be at least useful for DL, especially since HX doesn't codeshare with anyone who flies TPAC from HKG.

RDUDDJI · Mon Feb 08, 2016 9:11 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 53):
UA hasn't flown JFK-HKG since 2001.
They do have EWR-HKG from sCO though.

Oops, yup, I meant to say "NYC".

Prost · Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:09 pm

My gut tells me one daily HKG flight will suffice for DL, and PVG will become a more important Asian city over time than HKG. I'm not talking 5 years here, but I believe the PRC government want PVG to be the financial and commercial hub, and not HKG.

SFOThinker · Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:16 pm

Yes, SEA has less O&D than LAX and SFO, but its geographical position is superior. Fly to Asia from LAX and SFO and you will pass over or near SEA on the way. The SEA connection saves miles and flying time.
Finnair has managed to make Helsinki into a hub for Asia flying from Europe with a far smaller passenger and population base.
With the vast resources available to Delta, and the savings inherent in a shorter routing, they have an excellent chance of making Seattle a viable TPAC hub.

RDUDDJI · Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:34 pm

Quoting SFOThinker (Reply 58):
Yes, SEA has less O&D than LAX and SFO, but its geographical position is superior

Yes, and MCI would make a great mid-continent hub, but O&D trumps location... I'm sure if DL could have chosen any West Coast hub (before they were served by others), SEA wouldn't have been their first choice.

alfa164 · Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:26 am

Quoting RDUDDJI (Reply 59):
I'm sure if DL could have chosen any West Coast hub (before they were served by others), SEA wouldn't have been their first choice.

I understand that Glenn Hauenstein was a big proponent of - and had plans to make - LAX as the Asian hub. Now that he is being installed as President, I wonder if any more will come of LAX-to-Asia flights.

LAX772LR · Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:39 am

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 55):
Perhaps there is something relating to HU's partnership with AA? Not sure what that would be, though.

Indeed, as AA obviously has a bigger fish in the HKG pond with which to partner up... so not sure how HU would benefit from interfering with HX cooperating with someone else.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 55):
You'd think they'd be at least useful for DL, especially since HX doesn't codeshare with anyone who flies TPAC from HKG.

Exactly, and since they do codeshare with other longhaul/intercon carriers, you'd think they'd be interested in having DL/UA/AC, or perhaps even all the above, as partners.

Quoting Prost (Reply 57):
I believe the PRC government want PVG to be the financial and commercial hub, and not HKG.

HKG doesn't speak the mainland's language, use its currency, or share its fiscal/idoeological fundaments.
Only natural that they'd rather PVG ascend to what HKG is on the world stage.

Quoting SFOThinker (Reply 58):
Yes, SEA has less O&D than LAX and SFO, but its geographical position is superior.

Which doesn't mean much. High demand will always trump superior geography... if it didn't, then YQX would be N.America's primary European gateway, and ANC would be its largest to Asia.

Flighty · Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:42 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 53):
The international SARS outbreak was barely 13yrs ago.

Thanks, you are right. I was thinking of Bird Flu. It coincided with the Asian financial crisis in 97-98 IIRC...

commavia · Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:58 am

Quoting Prost (Reply 57):
My gut tells me one daily HKG flight will suffice for DL

Agree. Delta doesn't have to win everywhere, and of course it couldn't anyway, just as neither can AA nor United.

Quoting RDUDDJI (Reply 59):
Yes, and MCI would make a great mid-continent hub, but O&D trumps location

Geography isn't everything, just as demographics and economics aren't everything. The confluence of the three creates a viable hub. I suspect that in the long-run, SEA will work just fine for Delta.

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 60):
I understand that Glenn Hauenstein was a big proponent of - and had plans to make - LAX as the Asian hub. Now that he is being installed as President, I wonder if any more will come of LAX-to-Asia flights.

The question now becomes whether it's worth it for Delta to try and pick a fight with AA, which is clearly very serious about LAX and has seemingly insurmountable, structural advantages there - particularly now that Delta has spent time and money organically cultivating an impressive gateway up at SEA. Put another way - at this point developing LAX may actually cannibalize what has been built up in SEA to the point that the combined network is actually worse off than if Delta just kept focusing on SEA.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 61):
HKG doesn't speak the mainland's language, use its currency, or share its fiscal/ideological fundamentals.

But HKG does speak the language, and "share [the] fiscal/ideological fundamentals," of worldwide commerce - and I mean that both literally (English) and figuratively (trade linkages, banking, transportation and logistics, etc.). HKG is a well established and trusted global financial center above all others except NYC and LON - and it is so for a reason.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 61):
Only natural that they'd rather PVG ascend to what HKG is on the world stage.

Indeed - I have no doubt that plenty of Mainland Chinese politicians and bureaucrats would, indeed, rather have SHA "ascend ... on the world stage" relative to (or eclipsing) HKG. Time will tell, however, if that can actually be accomplished.

uberflieger · Tue Feb 09, 2016 1:03 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 32):
AA has dramatically closed the gap vs Delta in just the last few years

American has more than closed the gap. The combined seat inventory it markets & sells with JAL to Asia has surpassed and relegated Delta to 3rd place.

Quoting SFOThinker (Reply 58):
Finnair has managed to make Helsinki into a hub for Asia flying from Europe with a far smaller passenger and population base

Delta wouldn't be happy with Finnair's financials. While slightly profitable during 2 out of the past 5 years, overall they've lost money 2010-2014 (last full year results available).

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 60):
Now that he (Hauenstein) is being installed as President, I wonder if any more will come of LAX-to-Asia flights.

Most definitely and to the detriment of NRT & SEA.

LAX772LR · Tue Feb 09, 2016 1:43 am

Quoting commavia (Reply 63):
But HKG does speak the language, and "share [the] fiscal/ideological fundamentals," of worldwide commerce - and I mean that both literally (English) and figuratively (trade linkages, banking, transportation and logistics, etc.). HKG is a well established and trusted global financial center above all others except NYC and LON - and it is so for a reason.

Indeed, it is *now*.... but let's see what a few decades of intentional neglect (like say, not getting a 3rd runway) + overt favoritism for PVG would do.

Not to say that that's what's happening now per se-- but then again, not to say that it isn't.

RyanairGuru · Tue Feb 09, 2016 1:57 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 61):
Quoting Prost (Reply 57):
I believe the PRC government want PVG to be the financial and commercial hub, and not HKG.

HKG doesn't speak the mainland's language, use its currency, or share its fiscal/idoeological fundaments.
Only natural that they'd rather PVG ascend to what HKG is on the world stage.

We are, quite literally, decades off that point. Shanghai is a very important financial centre, no doubt about it, but Hong Kong is, and most likely always will be, in the top 5 largest financial centres globally.

If PRC really start meddling around in HKSAR, the biggest benefactor stands to be Singapore and not Shanghai. As the other "entrepot" city-state in Asia, a lot of capital will move south and not north. The business environment would be a lot more friendly than in Mainland China.

Where Shanghai stands to really shine is as a centre of global trade, akin to Dubai. That would require the PRC to take a step back, though, and stop meddling in free enterprise.

Quoting commavia (Reply 63):
But HKG does speak the language, and "share [the] fiscal/ideological fundamentals," of worldwide commerce

pasu129 · Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:22 am

I think one of the most missed points on route going in and out of HKG to anywhere in the world, whether it is lucrative or not, is that most people going into Hong Kong or out of Hong Kong has brand loyalty. CX is a very well known brand within Hong Kong, China, SE Asia and throughout the world, not only because of all aisle access, but also their soft product, traditional Chinese influenced Western hospitality.

Not saying SEA - HKG will never work. But I would suspect DL & CX is to operate that route, CX will have a better chance from loyal customers from Asia, and customers from US will want to go on CX instead of DL due to CX's soft product.

CX's brand loyalty is extremely strong throughout the world, and that makes any direct competitors very hard to enter Hong Kong without taking a hit. I would also imagine AA is relying on CX's brand loyalty to benefit LAX HKG route as well as CX's strong hub in HKG.

LAX772LR · Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:58 am

Quoting pasu129 (Reply 67):
I think one of the most missed points on route going in and out of HKG to anywhere in the world, whether it is lucrative or not, is that most people going into Hong Kong or out of Hong Kong has brand loyalty. CX is a very well known brand within Hong Kong, China, SE Asia and throughout the world, not only because of all aisle access, but also their soft product, traditional Chinese influenced Western hospitality.

Not saying SEA - HKG will never work. But I would suspect DL & CX is to operate that route, CX will have a better chance from loyal customers from Asia, and customers from US will want to go on CX instead of DL due to CX's soft product.

One look at the amount of discount pax that KE/OZ/CI/BR/etc pump into and out of HKG, pretty much destroys the ridiculous post above on its face.

HKG flyers, like in every other major market in the world, care about price, network convenience, and/or corporate obligation (usually in that order) longggg before "loyalty." Yeah sure

[Edited 2016-02-08 21:05:56]

jacobchoi · Tue Feb 09, 2016 6:25 am

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 68):
One look at the amount of discount pax that KE/OZ/CI/BR/etc pump into and out of HKG, pretty much destroys the ridiculous post above on its face.

HKG flyers, like in every other major market in the world, care about price, network convenience, and/or corporate obligation (usually in that order) longggg before "loyalty."

As a boy who has grew up in Hong Kong. I beg to differ. Hong Kong flyers have less incentive for flying with one stop, and CX offers the most nonstops from HKG. For us, we will do more than avoid airlines that we havent heard about or are infamous (cough cough V S). And with a majority of the fravel agencies aligned to CX/KA and not HX, coupled with business traffic going for CX and DL having zero brand awareness despite being a jauggernaut in the US, DL will always be the second class player from US-HK flights.

LAX772LR · Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:17 am

Quoting jacobchoi (Reply 69):
As a boy who has grew up in Hong Kong. I beg to differ.

You could've grown up on Krypton, and it still won't change what I just said.

But here, see for yourself:
Show us the corroborative data (or really anything beyond the limitation of your own anecdotal acquaintance) that supports what you just said about HKG's "loyalty" relative to any other large intercon gateway market.

We'll wait.

Quoting jacobchoi (Reply 69):
DL will always be the second class player from US-HK flights.

Sure, but that's not what I'm disagreeing with.

hoons90 · Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:29 am

Quoting YLWbased (Reply 44):

KE is another thing, ever since the Asiana crash in SFO, the general public comes to a realization of how much the "order obeying" culture of the Koreans have would affect flying safety.

This line of reasoning appears to be rather spurious to me, since unlike Asiana, Korean saw their past accidents as an impetus to change their cockpit culture in a way that does not permit cultural idiosyncrasies to interfere with the safe operation of their aircraft. I firmly believe that it is possible for airlines to overcome such idiosyncrasies with strict policies and directives put in place by management, and subsequently ensure a sound cockpit culture. The empirical evidence would point in a different direction from what we are seeing now (to that of more occurrences of accidents) if there were to be a failure of this sort of undertaking.

Furthermore, in the age of development and globalization (and ensuing global pressures), normative foundations in which these idiosyncrasies take root become much less rigid and are inclined to change. In the 1970's, for example, JAL actually had a fatal DC-8 accident in Anchorage in which rigid cockpit hierarchy contributed to the accident. Nowadays, this doesn't seem to be a concern any more as Japanese society itself has changed. I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that Korea is situated in that trajectory as well.

Although there may be a vocal group of people that still refuse to fly Korean Air, I do not see them affecting their bottom line, as the airline has no issues whatsoever carrying over 60,000 passengers every day to almost 120 destinations worldwide. Asiana has announced that they will review and revamp cockpit procedures with the objective of eliminating those risk factors, and they can learn from precedence.

MSPNWA · Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:46 am

Some of this was covered in the HND slot thread, but cut the excuses and call a spade a spade. DL is slowly but surely falling behind UA and AA in the Pacific, HKG being the prime example. You can't blame CX (UA would laugh). You can't blame geography (their hubs have opportunities). You can blame mistakes and poor long-term planning by DL. They haven't secured a Pacific JV partner. They chose not to spend money on modern aircraft to improve the economics of their current and potential routes. They've chosen not to compete hard for HKG against the likes of CX, UA, and AA. UA isn't running away from CX in NYC, ORD, or SFO. AA isn't running away from poor geography and a smaller local market at DFW.

If DL doesn't want to be a serious player to a major global market such as HKG, so be it. But that's their own problem, not some random circumstance.

LAX772LR · Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:28 am

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 72):
They chose not to spend money on modern aircraft to improve the economics of their current and potential routes.

A330s and 777s aren't "modern aircraft?"
...that's an interesting conclusion.

Even if you were talking about 787s and A350s, your statement still wouldn't make much sense-- as DL has both incoming.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 72):
AA isn't running away from poor geography and a smaller local market at DFW.

...something about massive alliance feed on both ends, with no nonstop competition?
And yet despite that, AA still only manages to operate a single gateway between the USA and HKG-- just like DL.

So again, not sure what your actual point is with that.

[Edited 2016-02-09 00:31:56]

a380787 · Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:24 pm

I find it highly amusing that someone who never lived in HKG actually challenging those locally on the ground, and accusing HKG to be a price sensitive market to justify their own airline's failures.

Just shows what fanboyism and lack of critical thinking can do to oneself.

YLWbased · Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:40 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 74):
I find it highly amusing that someone who never lived in HKG actually challenging those locally on the ground, and accusing HKG to be a price sensitive market to justify their own airline's failures.

Just shows what fanboyism and lack of critical thinking can do to oneself.

Amen.

jetlanta · Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:22 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 29):
Check your facts. China has been growing at 7 %, while HKG has the world's hottest property market during those years. Your facts fail you once again.

If you don't understand that China's economic growth has deteriorated dramatically, to the point that the entire global economy is threatened, I don't even know what to say.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...ould-crash-the-global-economy.html
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...01/08/china-stock-market/78503578/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kennethk...-markets-and-economy/#7fbd0f905d22
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/what-...et-crash-say-about-chinas-economy/
http://www.nationalinterest.org/feat...-the-collapse-chinas-economy-14753

Quoting commavia (Reply 63):
The question now becomes whether it's worth it for Delta to try and pick a fight with AA, which is clearly very serious about LAX and has seemingly insurmountable, structural advantages there - particularly now that Delta has spent time and money organically cultivating an impressive gateway up at SEA. Put another way - at this point developing LAX may actually cannibalize what has been built up in SEA to the point that the combined network is actually worse off than if Delta just kept focusing on SEA.

I'm hearing the impending move to T2/T3 nets Delta an additional six gates plus, eventually, a connector to TBIT.

a380787 · Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:45 pm

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 76):

If you don't understand that China's economic growth has deteriorated dramatically, to the point that the entire global economy is threatened, I don't even know what to say.

No, i never said that, but China is still posting positive GDP growth. The *growth* is decelerating, but not to a point of negative growth / recession, which you're trying to insinuate.

And I find it even more humorous and amusing that, out of the US3, your airline is the one who's throwing all eggs into the Chinese basket in the form of MU and PVG, then have the galls to lecture us on Chinese growth.

On 7/27, the day DL announced equity stake in MU, the CEA ADR on NYSE closed at $44.34. The live price now is $21.90, so on paper, DL is already down 50.6%, or $228 million. Smart investment indeed.

commavia · Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:52 pm

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 66):
We are, quite literally, decades off that point. Shanghai is a very important financial centre, no doubt about it, but Hong Kong is, and most likely always will be, in the top 5 largest financial centres globally.

If PRC really start meddling around in HKSAR, the biggest benefactor stands to be Singapore and not Shanghai.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 76):
I'm hearing the impending move to T2/T3 nets Delta an additional six gates plus, eventually, a connector to TBIT.

Which will be interesting, if true, given the limitations of the airport. That wouldn't completely close the gate gap vs AA, but it would certainly help. In any event, I still question whether Delta is going to be able - or willing - to challenge AA directly at LAX in terms of a transpacific gateway given the opportunity cost of what it would do to SEA. Personally, I still contend the most economically rational, and thus most likely, course is that Delta will continue to develop LAX as a large and important component of its network, but ultimately let AA "have it" in terms of a major transpacific gateway.

In the meantime, Delta has to figure out how to make SEA work - and I think we're basically seeing precisely that happen. I still think Delta made a smart, good bet on SEA.

[Edited 2016-02-09 07:56:13]

peanuts · Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:13 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 78):
Personally, I still contend the most economically rational, and thus most likely, course is that Delta will continue to develop LAX as a large and important component of its network, but ultimately let AA "have it" in terms of a major transpacific gateway.

In the meantime, Delta has to figure out how to make SEA work - and I think we're basically seeing precisely that happen. I still think Delta made a smart, good bet on SEA.

But if AS and AA get any closer with each other then DL cannot afford to let AA "have it" at LAX.
This can get really interesting.

commavia · Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:19 pm

Quoting peanuts (Reply 79):
But if AS and AA get any closer with each other then DL cannot afford to let AA "have it" at LAX.

Apologies - I don't follow. I don't understand why Alaska further developing its relationship with AA would affect the financial or strategic implications of additional Delta growth at LAX. Whether it makes sense - financially and strategically - or not, it doesn't seem that Alaska would have much to do with it either way.

peanuts · Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:40 pm

Indirectly it does.
AA developing its relationship with AS gives AA huge potential at SEA, along with a JAL JV in place. AS could function as AA's Trojan Horse at SEA.
Can you imagine AA's strength at LAX and SEA, while DL would allow to let AA "have" LAX.

They're very much related in the AA/AS/JL (maybe even CX) vs. DL context in the transpacific theater.

MSPNWA · Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:13 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 73):
A330s and 777s aren't "modern aircraft?"
...that's an interesting conclusion.

Even if you were talking about 787s and A350s, your statement still wouldn't make much sense-- as DL has both incoming.

Of course it makes sense. One of the biggest excuses with DL's struggles with HKG was their lack of economically suitable aircraft. What a lame excuse. They could have suitable aircraft on the property right now, but they chose not to spend the money. It's their own fault.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 73):
...something about massive alliance feed on both ends, with no nonstop competition?
And yet despite that, AA still only manages to operate a single gateway between the USA and HKG-- just like DL.

So again, not sure what your actual point is with that.

Point being: AA makes it work, even with their inherit disadvantages. They get a partner. They use the massive connecting feed on their end. They buy new airplanes that have the economical range. All of that unlike DL. Plus there's the strong rumors of LAX. They don't make excuses. They're getting it done.

[Edited 2016-02-09 09:14:21]

Flighty · Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:15 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 77):
No, i never said that, but China is still posting positive GDP growth.

Some say.

IMO, anyone with money is leaving China. Now, that still leaves a lot of people. But, it's also trillions of dollars. Leaving.

[Edited 2016-02-09 09:15:56]

a380787 · Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:24 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 83):

You do know China has strict capital flow controls, so unlike a truly free market, u can't just wire your billions back to the States overnight like that

dc10lover · Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:26 pm

Seattle to Hong Kong may be weak but look at Vancouver, BC. Their non - stop service is much stronger.

anonms · Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:50 pm

Quoting DC10LOVER (Reply 85):

Seattle to Hong Kong may be weak but look at Vancouver, BC. Their non - stop service is much stronger.

Vancouver has, among things, a helluva lot more immigrants from Hong Kong than Seattle does.

ldvaviation · Tue Feb 09, 2016 6:09 pm

Quoting commavia (Reply 78):
Which will be interesting, if true, given the limitations of the airport. That wouldn't completely close the gate gap vs AA, but it would certainly help.

...provided all the gates are exclusive use. (That has not been settled yet.)

...would give Delta two more gates than United. (But United may also get more gates.)

...in a timeframe that gives AA a distinct advantage for at least 5 years.

[Edited 2016-02-09 10:11:59]

jetlanta · Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:34 pm

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 82):
Point being: AA makes it work, even with their inherit disadvantages. They get a partner. They use the massive connecting feed on their end. They buy new airplanes that have the economical range. All of that unlike DL. Plus there's the strong rumors of LAX. They don't make excuses. They're getting it done.

How do they make it work? Have you seen the P&L's? Flying a schedule is not the same as "getting it done".

We very well could look back 10 years from now and be saying "wasn't Delta lucky to not get JAL and be stuck in no-growth Japan. Instead, they are in the catbird's seat in the Asia's most important city...Shanghai."

For real, the next decade is going to be very interesting. For all of Delta's current strategic issues in Asia, developing what could eventually be a JV with the Chinese carrier that hubs at PVG could be the most significant strategic advantage a U.S. carrier has in Asia. Will it happen? Who knows? But Delta did its best in Japan and didn't come out on top. That defeat, and KE's stubbornness have led them to a different direction. I've followed this industry long enough to know that the potential for PVG is the greatest of any city in Asia. There are already rumblings about Open Skies with China some time down the road. If that happens, life gets very interesting in the TransPac market.

I'm not sure sure that having DFW and LAX as TransPac gateways feeding a TYO hub split between HND and NRT is going to be a better long-term position than DTW/SEA/LAX feeding PVG. And, laugh if you want, I still think Korean ends up doing a JV with Delta. They are going to have to at some point.

a380787 · Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:59 pm

For anyone throwing their eggs onto PVG with pie in the sky dreams, please look at this :

http://www.citylab.com/work/2015/03/...economically-powerful-city/386315/
http://www.zyen.com/research/gfci.html

Global Financial Centres Index (Z/Yen)
1. NYC
2. LON
3. HKG
4. SIN
5. ZRH
6. TYO
7. SEL ICN
8. BOS
9. GVA
10. SFO

Shanghai isn't even on the list. Reply 76 he talks about how China is collapsing and that Apocalypse is around the corner, then reply 88 talk about how great Shanghai is to be the most important city of the largest continent on earth.

LAXintl · Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:59 pm

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 88):
developing what could eventually be a JV with the Chinese carrier that hubs at PVG could be the most significant strategic advantage a U.S. carrier has in Asia.

And United could create a JV with CA.
Atleast CA has a unified hub at PEK and not split airport ops in Shanghai. Also PEK is geographically better located than PVG/SHA coming from the U.S. and for beyond connections.

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 88):
I've followed this industry long enough to know that the potential for PVG is the greatest of any city in Asia

Big issue with Shanghai is the split airport operation. MU and its sibling FM have bulk of their domestic ops at SHA which diminished the heft of a PVG hub.

MSPNWA · Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:59 pm

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 88):
How do they make it work? Have you seen the P&L's? Flying a schedule is not the same as "getting it done".

And you have seen AA's? Seriously, this is your counter argument? If "flying a schedule" is not "getting it done", then what the heck is?

Now you're playing the "blame KE game" again. Stop with the excuses. DL needs to get things done. Ten years from now it looks most likely that DL will have fallen further behind.

mercure1 · Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:56 pm

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 88):
"wasn't Delta lucky to not get JAL and be stuck in no-growth Japan.

Might be no growth economy, but it is the worlds 3rd largest economy regardless. Also air travel is actually increasing in Japan both domestic and international. So Japan is still a very important global airline market.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 90):
Big issue with Shanghai is the split airport operation. MU and its sibling FM have bulk of their domestic ops at SHA which diminished the heft of a PVG hub.

Split airport ops is indeed a problem particularly since some cities are only linked to SHA or have limited frequencies to PVG.
Also the whole transit experience with run around and government formality in PVG makes it not the most pleasant place to transit in Asia. ICN is heaven in comparison.

LAX772LR · Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:03 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 74):
I find it highly amusing that someone who never lived in HKG actually challenging those locally on the ground, and accusing HKG to be a price sensitive market to justify their own airline's failures.

Just shows what fanboyism and lack of critical thinking can do to oneself.

Let's see, where to start with this above drivel?

1) You have no idea where I have and have not lived

2) What on earth does that have to do with market comprehension? I dare say you can take 99% of the populace in any metro, and they wouldn't have a blessed clue as to the logistical workings of their home aviation market, beyond their presumptions + anecdotal personal observance, which brings us to....

3) ....and that's exactly what the poster in question appeared to be offering: high on anecdotal observation, low on empirical fact. The only "fanboyism" involved is thinking that HKG flyers as a whole are somehow inherently different than any others within a given large market--- in the complete absence of corroboration I might add.

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 82):
They could have suitable aircraft on the property right now, but they chose not to spend the money.

Again, you're making no sense. DL bought the aircraft-- so please explain how they haven't "spent the money?"
Do you believe they firmed those orders in exchange for a pinky-swear or something?

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 82):
Point being: AA makes it work, even with their inherit disadvantages.

...to be followed with:

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 88):
How do they make it work? Have you seen the P&L's? Flying a schedule is not the same as "getting it done".

Sightseer · Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:13 pm

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 92):
Also the whole transit experience with run around and government formality in PVG makes it not the most pleasant place to transit in Asia. ICN is heaven in comparison.

I haven't been to ICN but pity anyone trying to make a connection in PVG. At least DL has co-located with MU in T1 (although I would pay a little more to fly out of T2, and also not to fly on MU).

But about KE ...

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 91):
Now you're playing the "blame KE game" again. Stop with the excuses. DL needs to get things done.

I think there is a lot more evidence that DL wants a JV with KE, than vice versa. It does take two to tango, as they say.

a380787 · Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:31 pm

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 94):

I think there is a lot more evidence that DL wants a JV with KE, than vice versa. It does take two to tango, as they say.

It really doesn't matter who wants it more, or who's more stubborn, or what not. The market doesn't give sympathy points for inaction or stalemates. Like everyone's favorite saying - "it's a business not a charity", and as a business, the only thing that matters is getting the deal done. Others really care less on *how* to get it done.

In the end of the day, as long as there's no deal, the consumer suffers from the lack of cooperation, and the airline suffers from the lack of revenue sharing and lack of synergy. The only winners here would be the competition.

jasoncrh · Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:38 pm

I just kind of find it funny that people are getting so heated and close to abusive about something over which they have absolutely ZERO influence or control. At the end of the day, each airline does what it can for a host of reasons, none of which are truly known by anybody on this form (and
for those who truly know, ie airline employees, they can't tell). This is all just speculation from those posting on here - why be so mean about it?

jetlanta · Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:57 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 89):
For anyone throwing their eggs onto PVG with pie in the sky dreams, please look at this :

http://www.citylab.com/work/2015/03/...economically-powerful-city/386315/
http://www.zyen.com/research/gfci.html

Global Financial Centres Index (Z/Yen)
1. NYC
2. LON
3. HKG
4. SIN
5. ZRH
6. TYO
7. SEL ICN
8. BOS
9. GVA
10. SFO

Shanghai isn't even on the list. Reply 76 he talks about how China is collapsing and that Apocalypse is around the corner, then reply 88 talk about how great Shanghai is to be the most important city of the largest continent on earth.

Well clearly I have lost this argument. Geneva is certainly a better long-term play than Shanghai. And China's economy is on fire! You win.

I'm done.

airtechy · Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:04 pm

Quoting Jasoncrh (Reply 98):
I just kind of find it funny that people are getting so heated and close to abusive about something over which they have absolutely ZERO influence or control.

...and it's always the same people in Delta threads.

jetlanta · Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:09 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 101):
Clearly someone can't read a simple list of 1st grade comprehension. The point is HKG SIN TYO SEL is there, while SHA isn't. And the ranking is about current competitiveness, nothing about (1) size or (2) future potential.

Thank you for explaining it to me. I'll refrain from commenting on the current state of the Chinese economy and the long-term potential of the Shanghai market in deference to your wisdom.

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