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fpetrutiu
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Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Tue Feb 09, 2016 6:54 pm

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/09/aviati...-ecojet-russia-aviation/index.html

A CNN article today suggests that Rosavia a Russian firm wants to build the Frigate Ecojet to directly compete with Airbus and Boeing.

Personally don't see this happen. But let's discuss. The new plane looks nice on paper...
Florin
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tortugamon
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:28 pm

Love this quote:

"With a catalog price of $120 million, on a par with the smaller Airbus A321neo, Frigate Ecojet's program leader Alexander Klimov expects the project to break even at 115 aircraft.

He says the company will need $3 billion investment over the next 10 years."


Absolutely this will be successful if they can do everything they say they can and for these prices.

I put virtually zero chance of it happening though.

tortugamon
 
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PatrickZ80
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:06 pm

It could actually work.

Let's face that they do not need to start from scratch entirely. It's Russian and Russia has produced an aircraft before that could have been a serious 737/A320 competitor: the Tu-204. Now that Boeing and Airbus are both launching their next genereration aircraft, why shouldn't the Russians launch a next generation Tu-204? They just give it another name, but I bet it'll have a lot in common. And the Tu-204 isn't a bad plane after all.
 
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zippyjet
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:13 pm

Quoting fpetrutiu (Thread starter):

Nothing wrong with a little competition. Spice things up, make spotting a bit more like it used to be. The elephant in the room or picadillo would be: would the flying public trust a Russian built airliner/company? True most don't know or care the aircraft type but, with competition just like politics their could be mud slinging to scare the public and airlines. I like the looks of this bird. So bring it on. And not to forget that Chinese jet that the new Eastern may check out. Ther's always the chance A or B could subcontract this company to build their own wares or actually buy the company.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_GuaJ0dk8tb4/TLsqwqV2a8I/AAAAAAAAAHA/iatzlf-hkjg/s1600/Ecojet1.jpg

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/dd/Cabin_Frigate_Ecojet.jpg/800px-Cabin_Frigate_Ecojet.jpg

And it's a widebody!
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mayor
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:17 pm

Quoting fpetrutiu (Thread starter):
The new plane looks nice on paper..

They always do  
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
tortugamon
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:21 pm

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 3):
would the flying public trust a Russian built airliner/company

I guess more importantly will it be built with the transparency and the testing quality of a western jet so that the FAA/Europe Regulators will approve it. Otherwise the market will be small.

tortugamon
 
B757Forever
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:25 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 1):
I put virtually zero chance of it happening though.

I agree, but not because it is a bad design or assembled poorly. The Russians have proven over the years that they can built some innovative, reliable and robust aircraft. I see the issue as being a lack of confidence, by any serious buyer, in having reliable manufacturers support to maintain the aircraft throughout its life.
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StTim
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:31 pm

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 3):
And it's a widebody!

Now that really would be an eXtra Wide Body. Triple Aisle. That floor would need to take some significant compression loads!
 
roseflyer
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:40 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 1):

He says the company will need $3 billion investment over the next 10 years."


Absolutely this will be successful if they can do everything they say they can and for these prices.

I put virtually zero chance of it happening though.

COMAC has spent over 10 Billion $ and so far has only delivered one DC-9 copy cat. The C919 is still billions away from revenue service. I don't see anyone in Russia having enough money to produce a competitive airplane.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
2175301
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:52 pm

I can name 3 companies that might have a chance of competing at the lower end of the Airbus/Boeing market... and none of them are in Russia. Those 3 companies are all well established international players in the RJ market.

However, I do believe that Putin needs to invest $3 billion in the next 2-3 years to start this project, and then follow with another $10 - $20 Billion in the next 10 years. It still won't make it in my opinion; but, that is what even an attempt will take.


Have a great day,
 
tortugamon
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:30 pm

Quoting roseflyer (Reply 8):
COMAC has spent over 10 Billion $ and so far has only delivered one DC-9 copy cat. The C919 is still billions away from revenue service. I don't see anyone in Russia having enough money to produce a competitive airplane.

While I do think Russia could come up with the cash I don't see those having the cash being stupid enough to launch something like this. Especially because it doesn't lend itself to another aircraft immediately afterward.

I see a better chance of getting close to $5B if they give up on western certification - which they may do.

Quoting B757Forever (Reply 6):
I agree, but not because it is a bad design or assembled poorly. The Russians have proven over the years that they can built some innovative, reliable and robust aircraft. I see the issue as being a lack of confidence, by any serious buyer, in having reliable manufacturers support to maintain the aircraft throughout its life.

Well I do think they could physically build it but I do doubt the quality in terms of useful life. I similarly doubt western acceptance of such an aircraft; could such an aircraft survive just in Asia/Africa? Even then I don't think SQ/CX/ME3 will be anxious to purchase. Just hard to see it coming together.

tortugamon
 
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PatrickZ80
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Tue Feb 09, 2016 11:12 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 5):
I guess more importantly will it be built with the transparency and the testing quality of a western jet so that the FAA/Europe Regulators will approve it. Otherwise the market will be small.

The Sukhoi Superjet has received full approval, even some western airlines have ordered it. If that turns out to be a success, I guess more will follow.
 
adam42185
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Tue Feb 09, 2016 11:16 pm

Curious how that triple aisle concept will pass evacuation standards.
 
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thekorean
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Tue Feb 09, 2016 11:16 pm

Maybe Russians should focus on selling MS-21, which looks like a fine aircraft.

And maybe produce new long haul jets maybe? Thats where there is true duopoly.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 3:51 am

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 3):
And it's a widebody!
Quoting adam42185 (Reply 12):
Curious how that triple aisle concept will pass evacuation standards.

11-across with 2 isles will pass evacuation. Why go to triple isles?

Quoting thekorean (Reply 13):
Maybe Russians should focus on selling MS-21, which looks like a fine aircraft.

Different companies. The MC-21 is doing OK. Behind schedule, but there is merit.

Lightsaber
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Boeing778X
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 4:03 am

The stupid thing looks like a toy plane!   

Competition or not, I don't see it happening! And If I were Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier, etc., I wouldn't lose an ounce of sleep over another Russian contraption.

The SSJ100? Sure. A respectable regional jet perhaps. That's pretty much the only thing that Russia has made that could be considered competitive.

The Tu-204 seems like it has potential, but how many did they make? 60?
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mham001
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 4:07 am

Quoting PatrickZ80 (Reply 11):
The Sukhoi Superjet has received full approval, even some western airlines have ordered it. If that turns out to be a success, I guess more will follow.

Didn't that have quite a bit of Boeing support?
 
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mayor
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 4:49 am

Whatever comes of it, make sure it comes with a tailstand!!  
"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
 
Motorhussy
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 6:06 am

It's much like a two engined version of the four-engine Airbus concept with the double-bubble fuselage.
come visit the south pacific
 
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thekorean
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 6:35 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 14):

I am assuming this will also be funded by the state but maybe thats wrong of me.
 
cschleic
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:12 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 14):
11-across with 2 isles will pass evacuation. Why go to triple isles?

And why go to triple isle for 10-across when the 777 and 747 already do it with two isles? Wasted floor space and structure.

[Edited 2016-02-09 23:13:29]
 
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CARST
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:34 am

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 14):
11-across with 2 isles will pass evacuation. Why go to triple isles?
Quoting cschleic (Reply 20):
And why go to triple isle for 10-across when the 777 and 747 already do it with two isles? Wasted floor space and structure.

This design clearly aimes for quick turn-arounds, high utilisation of this domestic/regional aircraft for short- to mid-haul routes. Not a bad idea, reminds me of the EcoLiner a.net member Keesje once showed around here...

In the end it's another MOM plane and turn-around times will not be that important to waste so much space. See the ideas from Boeing floating around in the other thread. A succesful MOM plane will be another pencil stick with a single aisle.
 
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Faro
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:43 am

Russia has more dire needs for its investment funds...USD 3 billion will get you the wings developed and tooled up maybe, just maybe...the rest is laughable...good grief, remember this is CNN...


Faro
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euroflyer
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:13 am

Horizontal elliptic fuselage is a great step forward in terms of aerostructural engineering/manufacturing.
That's not a proper way to enter such a market
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r2rho
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:22 pm

CNN is blowing the potential of this project out of proportion, and everyone here is biting on the chance to criticize it. It first needs to garner enough support within Russia to be considered seriously.
The actual potential competitor to be taken seriously is the MC-21. If they can pull off what is said on paper, it will be a very good aircraft. But that is not enough (ask BBD with the CSeries). Fact is, breaking into a duoploy is extremely difficult, even if unlike BBD you have unlimited cash (see Microsoft versus iPhone/Android).

For the sake of discussion, the project is certainly interesting with its oval cross section, fast turnaround times, and optimization for the A300 market which A&B have abandoned in favor of 8000nm designs. A further advantage of using a widebody cross section is that, should one want to develop a long range version later on, one could reuse the fuselage and "only" add new wings and landing gear.
 
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N776AU
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:23 pm

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 3):
And it's a widebody!
Quoting cschleic (Reply 20):
And why go to triple isle for 10-across when the 777 and 747 already do it with two isles? Wasted floor space and structure.

Yeah that triple-aisle idea will turn in to twin-aisle 3-5-3 layouts instantly   
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JetBuddy
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 3:03 pm

How to make this possible:

Buy cheap 772 for 8 million dollars, chop it in the back and front of the wing, put some PW1100 or LEAP1 on it. Obtain Russian and Chinese certifications however you need to. Voila! New 10-abreast 200 seat plane. Sell for 120 million USD.

Looks exactly like the rendering too!

  
 
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Navigator
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 6:41 pm

Quoting zippyjet (Reply 3):
The elephant in the room or picadillo would be: would the flying public trust a Russian built airliner/company?

We passed the times when russian jets were bad. Who would not go on the Sukhoi Superjet? I think this question is not as relevant as it was 30 years ago...
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thekorean
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:00 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 24):

Chinese C919 too.

It's not gonna be bought by too many western carriers at first but developing countries will and that's their proving ground.
 
Rbgso
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:10 pm

Only $3 billion to get a clean sheet widebody designed, built, and certified? I find that hard to believe, but I wish them all the best.
 
chiad
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:37 pm

One of the most challenging issues for any newcomer is just like Bombardier is experiencing:

www.irishnews.com/business/2016/02/1...rescue-bombardier-cseries--413395/

Quote:
"We need to have spare aircraft and a certainty of supply."
 
Burkhard
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RE: Newcomer Direct Competitor With Airbus And Boeing?

Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:43 pm

Quoting adam42185 (Reply 12):
Curious how that triple aisle concept will pass evacuation standards.

The de facto no aisle 77W pass them, so this far superiour layout should do better...

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